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Trump to Tour Fed, Ramping Up Pressure Campaign on Powell; ECB Rate Decision in Focus

By Roshan Fernandez

 

This afternoon, President Trump and his advisers are set to tour the construction site where the Federal Reserve is renovating its headquarters. The president has criticized the $2.5 billion building works, alongside the bank's interest-rate policy under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Also in focus are early July readouts of purchasing managers indexes covering manufacturing and services. Overseas, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold in its policy decision Thursday. And the Reserve Bank of Australia is pushing back against criticism that it has been too slow to cut interest rates, risking a sudden rise in unemployment.

 

Top News

Trump to Tour Fed, Ramping Up Pressure Campaign on Powell

Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News

The White House said President Trump would visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday afternoon. He is set to join a previously arranged tour for several White House advisers of the construction site where the Fed is renovating its headquarters, a White House official said.

Presidential visits to the central bank are rare—but so is the kind of sustained pressure campaign Trump and his advisers have dialed up in recent weeks to demand Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues lower interest rates.

The White House’s focus on the renovations of two historic buildings that will serve as the Fed’s headquarters coincides with Trump’s broader frustration over interest rates.

The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week.

 

RBA Pushes Back on Criticism That It Has Been Too Slow to Cut Rates

The jump in unemployment in June didn’t catch the central bank by surprise, Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Michele Bullock said in a speech to financial market participants on Thursday. The rise in the jobless rate to 4.3% in June—the highest since November 2021—had been forecast by the central bank in May, she said.

The comments come as pressure has mounted on the RBA to cut interest rates given that inflation has fallen back to within the 2% to 3% target band, economic growth remains weak, and unemployment is rising.

  • RBA Gov. Michele Bullock has sent a message of support to her besieged counterpart at the Federal Reserve, saying that central bank independence remains a guiding principle for monetary policy and that she was uncertain what was motivating Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. "You would have to say that the Fed is doing what it is supposed to be doing, which is focusing on the economy and employment. They are not getting drawn into debate," Bullock told a luncheon of money-market participants on Thursday. "Central bank independence is very important. Certainly, what's going on in the United States is challenging that." (Dow Jones Newswires)
 

U.S. Economy

Home Prices Hit Record High in June, Dragging Down Sales

Home prices rose to a new high in June while the crucial spring sales season fizzled, signs that a housing-market recovery is unlikely in 2025.

Home buyers were hesitant to jump into the market this spring, which is usually the busiest time of year for home purchases. Home sales in June fell to a nine-month low. Home prices at record highs, along with mortgage rates above 6.5%, have made home purchases unaffordable for many.

Trump’s New Trade Standard Takes Shape With 15% Tariff Deal

President Trump’s push to introduce a new standard for global trade is coming into sharper focus as U.S. and European Union officials converge on a possible 15% tariff deal, which could come on the heels of a similar agreement with Japan.

  • Europe Approves $100 Billion-Plus Tariff Backup Plan
  • Asia-U.S. Trade Deals Pick Up as Tariff Deadline Nears
  • Trump Goes to Bat for Big Tech in Global Trade Talks
 

Financial Regulation

Kohl’s and Opendoor Headline a New Class of Meme Stocks

Individual investors are once again loading up on a group of unloved stocks and taking to social media to defend them from the haters and the short sellers. Shares of Kohl’s and Opendoor have rocketed higher recently.

Tom Hayes, Libor ‘Ringleader,’ Wins U.K. Appeal to Clear His Name

Tom Hayes, the former trader who became the face of the Libor scandal, won a last-ditch appeal to clear his name, undoing one of the most high-profile cases to emerge from the global financial crisis.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:30 a.m.: IMF regular press briefing with Strategic Communications Director Julie Kozack
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: New Residential Sales
11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
2 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Closed Meeting
4:30 p.m.: Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 p.m.: Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday

8:30 a.m.: Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

Research

Firing Powell Wouldn't Save Interest Costs

For a brief spell last week, markets were convinced President Trump was about to try to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although he later backed down. The episode gave economists clues useful for estimating how Treasury yields would respond to an actual firing. Evidence from that day shows that yields inside 3 years on the curve would likely decline, while yields from 7 years and out would be pushed higher, writes Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues at Deutsche Bank. On balance, this yield-curve steepening wouldn't save the U.S. much money on interest payments, Deutsche figures. "Overall, we estimate very limited savings over the next several years from firing Chair Powell based on the extrapolated yield curve moves from last week," Luzzetti writes. — Matt Grossman

 

Basis Points

  • Large economies in Europe and Asia continued to show resilience in the face of high levels of uncertainty about the future of trade and international relations, although export orders weakened.
  • Medium-maturity euro corporate bonds look more attractive than their short-dated and long-dated counterparts, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Short-maturity bond yields have declined while long-maturity bond yields have risen due to expectations of higher long-dated government bond yields, Valencia says. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • Home prices are at record highs, yet housing inflation, which also includes renters and longtime homeowners, has continued to decline, a trend that will likely help offset a rise in goods prices from tariffs, economists at Pantheon Macro write. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • The number of Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. in May was down 31.9% on-year, while the number of trips to Canada by U.S. residents decreased 5.6% and trips by overseas residents fell 6.6%, Statistics Canada data shows. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • Consumers in the eurozone are a little less gloomy as inflation stabilizes, and despite a background of global economic uncertainty, a monthly survey showed Wednesday.
  • German consumer sentiment continued to worsen as growing economic uncertainty encouraged shoppers to save rather than spend, according to a monthly survey.
  • South Korea’s economy rebounded at a stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, despite headwinds from President Trump’s tariffs weighing on growth.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.

 
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