The Intelligent Investor
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Liquidity That Quenches No One's Thirst
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Good morning.
My colleague Dawn Lim reported yesterday that the managers of many money-market mutual funds are waiving their fees in order to keep the yields on their funds from dropping below zero. "That possibility might make stuffing cash under a mattress more attractive," Dawn wrote.
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And that's the good news.
According to Crane Data, which tracks money funds, 465 out of 747 taxable money-market funds are yielding 0.01% or less, with 135 of them at yields of zero. That's 0.00%, zilch, zippo, nil, nada, bupkis.
The average money-fund yield dipped even lower in 2014, but in today's environment, there's barely any yield to be found anywhere else in the fixed-income markets either. In March, not even a 30-year U.S. Treasury yielded more than 1%, and this week most of the Treasury yield curve sits barely above zero:
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More than zero, but not by much. (Source: WSJ.com)
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Diversified bond index funds? If you're lucky, you can find one that yields as much as 1.1%.
Governments have flooded the world with liquidity, and everywhere income investors look, there's nothing but sand.
In this income desert, it's tempting to reach for yield: junk bonds, emerging-market debt, business-development companies, mortgage REITs, high-dividend stocks—anything whose yield begins with a digit greater than 1.
But you can't safely get fat yields in a 1% world.
In Greek mythology, Tantalus was condemned to spend eternity in fresh water that would recede as soon as he tried to drink it and under a tree whose sweet fruit would sway out of his grasp as soon as he reached for it. The word "tantalize" derives from his name.
Don't be tantalized into reaching for yield. Painful as it may be, I urge investors to stick with ultra-safe, low-yielding choices for their cash: I-bonds, online bank accounts, CDs. The whole point of holding cash isn't to generate a high return; it's to keep your money safe.
This yield drought won't last forever, but it could last long enough to stretch many people's patience past the breaking point. Discipline matters the most when it's the hardest to achieve. As I've often said, successful investing depends, at most, 10% on knowing what to do and at least 90% on knowing what not to do.
Reaching for yield never ends well. Just ask Tantalus.
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Giulio Sanuto, "Tantalus" (after Titian), ca. 1565, Museum of Fine Arts, Boston
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What are you doing with your portfolio to get a little more income in this yield drought without compromising safety? Let me know.
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Be well and invest well,
Jason
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Some Stories You Shouldn’t Miss
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Here are some of the best things I found last week outside The Wall Street Journal:
Here are some of the best things I read recently in The Wall Street Journal:
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After my column on Morgan Housel's new book The Psychology of Money, I asked: What does money mean to you? Here are a few thoughts from readers.
I would reply with a very insightful piece of philosophy: “The most uncomfortable place to live is just beyond your means.” It’s another way of saying “wanting to spend less money than you have.” —Denny Alexander
Born in 1932, one of nine children, to a coal miner father and homemaker mother — we learned it’s what you do with money that makes it important. We all turned out to be frugal but generous, thrifty but never cheap, enough money to enjoy life but not enough to be big spenders. —Joan Zimmerman
Once I realized that we could, and indeed preferred to, spend less than we have, it changed my perspective. I became responsible for using that excess wealth in as positive way as possible to help our family and our community. Instead of owning the account, I became a steward of the account, using as much wisdom as I can muster to make things a bit better for others. —Patrick Townsend
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Cecilia Beaux, "Half-Tide, Annisquam River" (ca. 1905), High Museum of Art via Wikimedia Commons
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In the old legend the wise men finally boiled down the history of mortal affairs into the single phrase, “This too will pass.” Confronted with a like challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.
— Benjamin Graham
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