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Barkin Says Fed Has Been Bringing Rates Down to Neutral Levels

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday that as the inflation rate has fallen, the Federal Reserve has been bringing interest rates back down toward neutral levels. The policy shift comes at a difficult time for forecasting as another federal spending impasse has suspended government figures, forcing economy watchers are once again turning to a patchwork of unofficial data. On the personnel front, Fed governor Stephen Miran said he has resigned from his job as a top White House economic adviser, ending an unusual dual role he had held since he joined the central bank in September. And finally, the bank closed a controversial chapter on Tuesday as a former Fed official was found not guilty of conspiring to share confidential central-bank information with Chinese intelligence officers.

 

Top News

Barkin: Fed Has Been Bringing Rates Down Toward Neutral Levels

Photo: Jeenah Moon/Reuters

Speaking in South Carolina Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said reducing the fed-funds rate by 175 basis points over the last year and a half is supporting the labor market.

“I think of these cuts as having taken out some insurance to support the labor market as we work to complete the last mile to bring inflation back to target,” he said.

In regard to inflation, Barkin said the Fed’s sustained miss on its target is something he takes seriously, due to the influence on its impact in the future.

With Jobs Data Delayed, Analysts Flock to Unofficial Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Monday the January jobs report wouldn’t be released as scheduled Friday because funding for the Labor Department, of which BLS is part, ran out last week. While Congress approved new funding Tuesday, the BLS hasn’t said when the jobs data would be released. In the interim, the public is once again digging into a mosaic of surveys, data sets and indicators from private sources, starting with a monthly jobs report from the payroll processor ADP, to be released Wednesday morning.

Temporary Fed Gov. Stephen Miran Resigns From White House Role

Fed governor Stephen Miran's move allows him to keep his promise to step down from the White House if his time at the Fed were to extend past Jan. 31, when his term at the central bank expired. Miran can stay in place on the Fed’s board of governors until a successor is confirmed

“I believe it is important to stay true to my word while I continue to perform the job at the Federal Reserve to which you and the Senate appointed me,” Miran wrote in a letter to President Trump seen by The Wall Street Journal.

Ex-Fed Adviser Acquitted of Economic Espionage Conspiracy Charges

After a day of deliberations, a jury acquitted John Rogers, a 64-year-old former senior adviser in the Federal Reserve's division of international finance, of the most serious charge he was facing. Jurors did convict him of a lesser charge of lying to investigators when, in a 2020 interview with the Fed’s internal-watchdog office, he denied sharing sensitive information outside the central bank.

Finance Leaders Weigh In on Trump, the Fed, Investing and AI Risk

Jon Gray, Blackstone’s president and chief operating officer, said at the WSJ Invest Live event Tuesday that there was a significant difference between the Fed’s data on rental housing costs and the more real-time data. If the Fed updates its data methodology, rates will likely decline, he said. “And again that’ll be helpful for consumers, for businesses, and markets.” He spoke highly of President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair and said he believes Warsh will be “data-dependent.”

 

Key Developments Around the World

Eurozone CPI Sinks Further Below ECB Target Ahead of Rate Decision

Eurozone inflation fell further below the European Central Bank’s target in January, and is expected to remain under that 2% mark over the next two years.

Australia’s Overheating Economy Signals More Rate Pain Ahead

Australians are again bracing for rate pain, as an overheating economy forces the central bank to tighten the policy screws.

New Zealand Unemployment Rate Highest in Over a Decade

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2015 in the final quarter of 2025, signaling that while the country’s economy appears poised for recovery, the path out of recent gloom could be a long one.

Without Immigrants, U.K. Economy Would Be Smaller, More Indebted

The U.K. economy would be smaller, its debts larger and taxes higher within 15 years if immigration were to end, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Wednesday. In its quarterly report on the economic outlook, the U.K.’s leading economic research body also said it expects inflation to settle at the Bank of England’s 2% target later this year, and the central bank to lower its key interest rate twice more.

Why India Will Struggle to Reduce Its Reliance on Russian Oil

President Trump said India is going to stop buying Russian oil. Such a move—which would have profound effects on global crude trading—is easier said than done.

 

Financial Regulation

Hundreds of Swiss Bank Accounts With Suspected Nazi Links Found by Investigators

PHOTO: ennio leanza/Shutterstock

UBS has said it wants to bring greater transparency to Switzerland’s dark chapter helping the Nazis in World War II.

In Brooklyn federal court, UBS has a different message for the Jewish organization that asked for the Credit Suisse probe in 2020, the Simon Wiesenthal Center. Be quiet, and don’t ask us for any more money.

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
9:45 a.m.: US Services PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI
11 a.m.: Global Services PMI
12 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at Rotary Economic Symposium
6:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks at Economic Club of Miami event

Thursday

7:00 a.m.: UK interest rate decision
7:30 a.m.: Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
10 a.m.: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent testifies to Senate committee on Financial Stability Oversight Council Annual Report
11 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic fireside chat with Clark Atlanta University School of Business dean

 

Research

Dollar Could Rise in Near Term as Political Uncertainty Eases

The near-term balance of risks has shifted towards dollar strength following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, Danske Bank's Stefan Mellin says in a note. The nomination appears to have reduced concerns around threats to Fed independence and helped unwind part of the political risk premium embedded in the dollar, he says. The dollar's selloff in the second half of January was driven by political risk stemming from unpredictable U.S. policy. Hence, an easing of near-term political uncertainty could "restore the dollar's correlation with fundamentals and create a tactical window for a dollar rebound." — Renae Dyer

 

Basis Points

  • Home builders in the U.S. are scrambling to offer new policy proposals to the White House, looking for help to unload the biggest glut of housing inventory in 15 years.
  • The new U.S. strategy for rare-earth minerals looks a lot like China’s old one. A U.S. government agency is providing most of the funding for a $12 billion government-led stockpile of minerals, some of which will likely be sourced from companies partly owned by the government.
  • Gearing up to the Winter Olympics, here is a look at some of the Milan most expensive and sought-after places to live.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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