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February 8, 2021 - Brief Issue 149

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University

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Top Headlines

Johnson & Johnson Applies for Emergency Use Authorization for Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

Variant Updates: South Africa Halts AstraZeneca Vaccine Rollout Amid Concerns About Efficacy; AstraZeneca Vaccine Appears Effective Against B.1.1.7 Variant; B.1.1.7 Variant Spreading Rapidly in U.S. (Health & Science)

FDA to Limit Use of Convalescent Plasma as Treatment for Covid-19 Patients (Health & Science)

More Americans Than Ever Intend to Get the Covid-19 Vaccine; Fauci Says Vaccine Availability Will Increase in March and April (Health & Science)

FDA Prepares New Covid-19 Vaccine Strategy Targeted at Handling Variants (Health & Science)

“Long-Haul” Covid-19 Sufferers May Be More Likely to Be Female (Health & Science)

U.K. Backs Mixed-Vaccine Study (Health & Science)

Doctors, Elderly Disappointed by Vaccine Rollout Across EU While UK Approach is Paying Off (Around the World)

France Allows ‘Sad Desk Lunch’ Amidst Pandemic; Numbers Fall for Fourth Consecutive Day (Around the World)

Dubai Cracks Down on Tourism as Cases Spike (Around the World)

Bangladesh Begins Covid-19 Vaccinations (Around the World)

China Reports No New Locally Transmitted Cases for First Time in Two Months (Around the World)

Democrats Propose $3,000 Child Benefit (U.S. Government)

Pandemic’s Impact on State and Local Revenue Smaller Than Feared; Still Significant (U.S. Government)

Businesses Adapt Planning for Slow Vaccine Rollout (U.S. Economy)

Chicago Reaches Tentative Deal with Teachers Union After Resuming Talks Over Reopening (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 27,007,719 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 463,482 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 320,378,941 tests and distributed 59,307,800 vaccine doses, with 41,210,937 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 106,206,994 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,318,388 deaths. At least 59,226,041 people have recovered from the virus.

Johnson & Johnson Applies for Emergency Use Authorization for Covid-19 Vaccine

Late last week, Johnson & Johnson applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization (EUA) of its Covid-19 vaccine (NPR, CNBC). The FDA has scheduled a meeting for February 26 to discuss authorization. If the EUA is granted, Johnson & Johnson intends to supply 100 million doses to the U.S. in the first half of 2021. Recent clinical trial data from the company revealed that the vaccine is about 66 percent effective, though the efficacy varied by location and seems to be slightly less effective against some variant strains. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine would be the first approved in the U.S. to require only a single dose, and it can be stored at normal refrigeration temperatures, making it logistically easier to distribute.

Variant Updates: South Africa Halts AstraZeneca Vaccine Rollout Amid Concerns About Efficacy; AstraZeneca Vaccine Appears Effective Against B.1.1.7 Variant; B.1.1.7 Variant Spreading Rapidly in U.S.

New clinical trial data on AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine has shown that the vaccine does not provide strong protection against mild to moderate cases of Covid-19 caused by the B.1.351 variant (Reuters, WaPo, WSJ). The variant, which is the dominant strain in South Africa, contains a mutation that affects the spike protein, making it more difficult for antibodies to recognize and neutralize the virus. South Africa’s Health Minister, Dr. Zweli Mkhize, said Sunday that the rollout of the vaccine would be paused while scientists review the data. The pause is a setback for the country, which was set to begin distributing its first vaccine doses to healthcare workers this month. However, Dr. Mkhize said that he expects to be able to administer vaccines from Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer over the coming weeks.

Despite its reduced efficacy against the B.1.351 variant, a preprint study released on Friday found that the AstraZeneca vaccine remains strongly protective against the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in Britain (NYT). The vaccine was approximately 75% effective against this variant, similar to the efficacy found with the original strain. Even so, the emergence of new variants makes it increasingly urgent to administer vaccines as quickly as possible around the world.

The B.1.1.7 variant has taken hold in many places around the world, including the United States. Another preprint study posted Sunday cautions that the more-contagious variant is circulating rapidly around the U.S., doubling approximately every 10 days (NYT, WaPo). The authors of the study have said that the variant is on track to be the dominant strain in the U.S. by March, corroborating a similar prediction by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Other countries have already experienced surges due to the B.1.1.7 variant, and experts warn that the U.S. could be headed for a similar situation. Bonus Read: “The Coronavirus Is a Master of Mixing Its Genome, Worrying Scientists,” (NYT).

FDA to Limit Use of Convalescent Plasma as Treatment for Covid-19 Patients

On Thursday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it would be imposing new limits on its authorization of convalescent plasma as a treatment for patients with Covid-19 (WSJ). The treatment will now be used only in hospitalized patients at the beginning of their disease course. Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, explained that the decision was made after careful review of the available literature. According to Dr. Marks, “the update is meant so convalescent plasma can best be used on those who will benefit.”

More Americans Than Ever Intend to Get the Covid-19 Vaccine; Fauci Says Vaccine Availability Will Increase in March and April

According to a new poll by Axios/Ipsos, 63% of U.S. adults say they have either already received a Covid-19 vaccine or plan to get one as soon as it is available to them (CNN). This percentage is the highest thus far recorded by the poll, which has been polling Americans about vaccine acceptance since August.

The increase in vaccine confidence is good news and brings the U.S. closer to stopping uncontrolled Covid-19 spread. For now, however, the demand is outpacing vaccine availability. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, acknowledged that there are more people right now who want the vaccine than can get it (Politico). Dr. Fauci said that more doses should become available as manufacturing scales up, with vaccine scarcity easing as we enter March and April.

FDA Prepares New Covid-19 Vaccine Strategy Targeted at Handling Variants

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Thursday that it is working on new standards for handling Covid-19 vaccinations in the face of rapidly-spreading variants that are, in some cases, less controllable by current vaccines (Politico). The arrival of these new strains in the U.S. and other countries threatens progress made with vaccination programs and raises the possibility that new vaccines will have to be developed quickly, much like the annual flu vaccine. Indeed, top officials at the FDA have said the agency will likely draw on strategies used to combat the flu. In this approach, new vaccines would be based on existing, foundational vaccines that have already been approved. Manufacturers would therefore not be required to conduct lengthy clinical trials with thousands of people; instead, they could conduct shorter studies with only a few hundred. Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA advisory board member and vaccine expert at the University of Pennsylvania, says the approach is “the only thing that makes sense” for handling a rapidly mutating virus. The FDA expects to announce details of its strategy in the next week or two.

Some Changes Effected by Covid-19 Pandemic Could Be Long-Term

According to experts, even vaccines will not fully eliminate SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. As we have reported previously, the virus is likely to become endemic around the world, meaning it will continue to circulate much like other common viral illnesses. Epidemiologists say this could necessitate long-term societal and behavioral shifts (WSJ). As immunity builds and vaccine programs improve around the world, the strictest measures, like business closures and stay at home orders, will likely fall by the wayside. However, more practical prevention strategies like masking, ensuring good ventilation, and regular testing may be employed for years to come. Some businesses are already preparing for this continued reality, investing in air quality monitoring and testing kits. As the virus becomes endemic, scientists will continue to monitor for new variants and develop booster vaccines aimed at preventing illness from new strains. Experts say that vaccines will continue to be important even after Covid-19 becomes endemic.

“Long-Haul” Covid-19 Sufferers May Be More Likely to Be Female

One of the less-understood aspects of Covid-19 is the phenomenon of “long-haulers,” those who experience lingering symptoms for months after acute illness passes. These sufferers experience a range of symptoms, including but not limited to extreme fatigue, persistent mild breathing problems, headache, joint pain, memory and concentration problems or organ damage. Research into the phenomenon is limited, but some physicians have noted a gender imbalance, with women more likely to experience long-term complications from Covid-19 (The Lily). Physicians and researchers aren’t yet sure what might cause the imbalance, or even if it exists. Some speculate that a fundamental difference in the immune system might be involved. Others believe social and cultural causes may be at play. Women may simply be more likely to seek medical treatment for persistent health problems, particularly those related to difficulties with cognition or other mental health issues. Some people with long-haul symptoms, especially women, have said that their symptom reporting has been dismissed by doctors. However, the occurrence of lasting symptoms has been widely reported and researchers believe it merits further study.

U.K. Backs Mixed-Vaccine Study

The U.K. government will provide $9.6 million to support a study investigating the possibility of using different Covid-19 vaccines for the two doses (CIDRAP). The mixed-vaccine strategy would allow providers to be more flexible and to work around potential production shortfalls. The study will involve 800 patients and take 13 months to complete. Researchers will investigate different vaccine combinations with dosing intervals of either 28 days or 12 weeks. The control group in the study will receive two doses of the same vaccine given 12 weeks apart, in keeping with the official U.K. recommendation.

Federal Vaccine Data System is Slowing Immunization Protocols, Health Officials Say

State and local officials have said that Tiberius, the U.S. government’s vaccine tracking platform, is slowing the pace of immunization (Politico). Officials say the software is confusing and overly complex. In addition, though the data system is meant to provide information on where vaccines are located and pinpoint potential bottlenecks, the tracking system is not always reliable. Incomplete or missing information along the supply chain makes it difficult for officials to obtain accurate information, and some users report lags and errors in the system. The Department of Health and Human Services has said it is working to address usability issues by deploying information technology personnel and setting up a help desk.

WHO Calls for Global Covid-19 Vaccine Sharing, Increases in Production

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week that, despite the progress made on vaccinations, three-quarters of the doses have been administered in just 10 countries (CIDRAP). He added that some countries have already begun to vaccinate lower-risk individuals while other countries have barely been able to begin vaccinations.

“Unless we suppress the virus everywhere,” said Tedros, “we could end up back at square one. We need countries to share doses once they have finished vaccinating health workers and older people.” Dr. Tedros also called on pharmaceutical companies to help with vaccine manufacturing, praising Sanofi’s recent decision to make some of its manufacturing capacity available for the production of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Tedros encouraged vaccine companies to share information more readily with WHO in order to speed WHO emergency authorizations, a process that aids vaccine distribution in lower-income countries.

Bonus Reads: “A New Front in the Anti-Vaccine Fight Emerges in California,” (NYT); “Covid Reinfections May Be More Common Than Realized. Why Isn't the US Tracking Them?” (NBC), “The U.S. Needs a National Vaccine Day,” (STAT).

Around the World

Bonus Read: “Text, Letter, Drop-in Clinic: Five Countries and the Various Paths for a Vaccine Appointment,” (WaPo).

Europe

Doctors, Elderly Disappointed by Vaccine Rollout Across EU While U.K. Approach is Paying Off

Many countries across Europe are still trying to finish vaccinating front-line health care workers and elderly residents of care homes, a process that has been slower than many health officials and politicians predicted. Initially, government officials hoped that the bulk of Europeans could be vaccinated by the end of summer, but production delays, procurement missteps, and logistical complications have plagued the European Union, which is buying doses for the bloc. Europeans have been exasperated by the slow pace, especially compared to the U.S., where most states are vaccinating people over the age of 65 and about one-tenth of the total population has been vaccinated (WSJ). That’s double the number in Spain and Italy and three times that of Germany. Many other EU countries are vaccinating at an even slower pace. 

But there’s no need to compare the EU to the US as an even starker comparison is closer to home: the U.K. invested aggressively and early in multiple vaccine manufacturers and is now reaping the rewards of that approach; AstraZeneca, for example, said Britain would receive vaccine doses earlier than the EU because it signed first. The U.K. has been quicker than the EU in many aspects of the race for a vaccine, as the AP writes: “Its regulatory agency has authorized vaccines more quickly than the EU’s, and its government has experimented with stretching out the time between shots — allowing it to roll out first doses faster so more people can have some protection quickly” (AP). Britain has so far given at least one shot to about 15% of its population, compared to some 3% across the bloc. As they wait for vaccination campaigns to pick up the pace, most EU residents are under some form of lockdown with restrictions on social life and the economy as virus cases continue to climb; Portugal, for example, is suffering record-high deaths from Covid-19 and its hospitals are struggling to keep up with patient numbers. 

France Allows ‘Sad Desk Lunch’ Amidst Pandemic; Numbers Fall for Fourth Consecutive Day

The French Labor Ministry says it will now allow employees to eat lunch at their desks in order to contain the spread of coronavirus. Previously, eating lunch at your desk was forbidden under Article R.4428-19 of the French labor code. Companies have up to now been barred from “allowing workers to have their meals in places dedicated to work” and were fined if discovered by the inspectors who enforce the labor code (NYT). The government has resisted calls for a third nationwide lockdown and is instead trying to control the pandemic with measures like evening curfews and tougher rules on foreign travel. On Sunday, France reported a fall in new Covid-19 infections for the fourth consecutive day (Reuters). 

Middle East

Dubai Cracks Down on Tourism as Cases Spike

Dubai is putting social restrictions in place after tourists flocked to the country to escape harsh lockdown measures at home. As of Tuesday, beach clubs, hotels, and malls are limited to 70% capacity and movie theaters limited to 50% capacity (CNN). Bars and pubs have been shut down temporarily. The new measures are in response to a spike in cases last month; the United Arab Emirates saw cases rise by 80,000, with more than 4,000 new cases being reported in a single day and cases rising to a total of over 290,000. 

Asia

Bangladesh Begins Covid-19 Vaccinations

On Sunday Bangladesh launched a nationwide Covid-19 vaccination drive using doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, aiming to inoculation 3.5 million people within a month (Reuters). The government is hoping to inoculate at least 80% of its 170 million people, but only a little over 328,000 people had registered to receive the vaccine so far. Bangladesh has also received 5 million of the 30 million doses of the COVISHIELD vaccine it ordered from the Serum Institute of India. Health Minister Zahid Maleque called COVISHIELD “the best and the safest vaccine.” “The wait is over. Today is a historic day for us after such a difficult year,” Maleque told Reuters. “I took the vaccine today. I am feeling good. Everyone must take the vaccine,” he said.

China Reports No New Locally Transmitted Cases for First Time in Two Months 

China reported no new locally transmitted Covid-19 cases on the mainland for the first time in nearly two months, according to official data released on Monday (Reuters). The total number of cases rose slight to 14 on Feb. 7, but all were imported infections from overseas. It is the first time since Dec. 16 that China has had zero local infections. Authorities have taken aggressive steps to stop the spread of the virus after major clusters were discovered in Hebei province around Beijing and the northeastern Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces.

U.S. Government & Politics

Democrats Propose $3,000 Child Benefit

On Monday, Senior Democrats plan to propose a $3,000 per child benefit, substantially expanding the proposed direct cash payments to Americans amid the pandemic (WaPo). The Washington Post reports regarding the proposed bill, which they obtained a copy of, writing: “Under the proposal, the Internal Revenue Service would provide $3,600 over the course of the year per child under the age of 6, as well as $3,000 per child of ages 6 to 17. The size of the benefit would diminish for Americans earning more than $75,000 per year, as well as for couples jointly earning more than $150,000 per year. The payments would be sent monthly beginning in July, a delay intended to give the IRS time to prepare for the massive new initiative.” The bill is being pushed by Representative Richard E. Neal (D-MA), who chairs the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. The proposal comes after a similar proposal by Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) to provide direct family support. Representative Neal stated, “The pandemic is driving families deeper and deeper into poverty, and it’s devastating. … This money is going to be the difference in a roof over someone’s head or food on their table.”

Pandemic’s Impact on State and Local Revenue Smaller Than Feared; Still Significant

The pandemic caused many states and localities to fear that their revenue would substantially decline, yet in 2020 declines tended to be smaller than feared, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “A flood of federal aid for businesses and households helped prop up incomes and consumer spending. Unemployment fell and economic activity picked up much faster than expected. Unlike in previous recessions, equity and housing markets have done well. All of those factors bolstered state and local revenues last year.” According to the Journal, “Immediately after the coronavirus outbreak last March, states slashed revenue projections by an average of about 8%, with some expecting shortfalls as high as 20%,” but “in the end, state revenues fell 1.6% in fiscal year 2020 and were 3.4% lower than projected before the pandemic, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.” Even so, the impact was significant. The Journal notes, “pandemic-related costs have soared in many localities, resulting in budget holes that may force states to cut back on other services, lay off workers or raise taxes, absent more federal aid. Policy analysts estimate state and local revenue losses due to the pandemic will total about $300 billion through fiscal year 2022, though that doesn’t include rising expenses.” 

Biden Defends Size of Proposed Stimulus Plan

On Friday, President Biden defended his planned $1.9 trillion Covid stimulus and relief plan from critics (Politico). Biden cautioned against getting bogged down in negotiations or changes, stating, “If I have to choose between getting help right now to Americans who are hurting so badly, and getting bogged down in a lengthy negotiation or compromising on a bill that’s up to the crisis, that’s an easy choice.” Biden’s advisers dismissed reports that the administration was looking favorably upon criticism of the size of the proposal from former Obama economic adviser Larry Summers. Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told CNN regarding Summer’s critique of the bill’s size, “I think he’s wrong. I think he is wrong in a pretty profound way.” The comments follow efforts by a group of Republican Senators to push a slimmer bill that they said would receive bipartisan support and as Democrats appear ready to push their proposal through on a potentially party-line vote via reconciliation. Bonus Read: “‘An Easy Choice’: Inside Biden’s Decision To Go It Alone With Democrats on Coronavirus Relief,” (WaPo).

Iowa Governor Lifts Mask Mandate

On Friday Iowa’s Republican governor Kim Reynolds announced that the state’s mask mandate would lift on Sunday (Fox). Reynolds stated, “I strongly encourage that all businesses or other employers remaining open with in-person operations take reasonable measures under the circumstances of each establishment to ensure the health of employees, patrons and members of the public, including social distancing practices, increased hygiene practices and other public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission of COVID-19.” The mandate had been in place since Thanksgiving. The change received praise from restaurant industry representatives but criticism from public health advocates. 

U.S. Economy

Businesses Adapt Planning for Slow Vaccine Rollout

Many businesses are adapting their planning as a result of the slow pace of vaccination efforts (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The slow start of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, along with the arrival of new virus variants, has dashed some business leaders’ hopes for getting back to normal in 2021. Consumers are unlikely to resume travel, dining out and shopping in stores at a pre-pandemic cadence until later this year, chiefs of some large companies told Wall Street analysts and investors in recent weeks. Some CEOs said consumer activity could pick up as soon as spring. Others pointed to a recovery later in the year—or even 2022.” David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, commented, “Let me underscore that progress on economic growth is contingent on an effective vaccine rollout program globally.” The Journal notes, “John Idol, CEO of Capri Holdings Ltd., which owns Versace and Michael Kors, said online luxury spending is strong but the near-term outlook is challenged because jumps in Covid-19 cases have caused additional restrictions and temporary store closures.” Meanwhile, the airline industry also expects a slow recovery.

Bonus Read: “Pandemic’s Toll on Housing: Falling Behind, Doubling Up,” (NYT).

U.S. Society

Chicago Reaches Tentative Deal with Teachers Union After Resuming Talks Over Reopening

On Sunday, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot reached a tentative deal with the Chicago Teachers Union over a plan to reopen in-person schooling (Chicago Tribune). The Chicago Tribune reports, “Any deal is contingent on broader union approval of the terms via a vote by the union’s 25,000 members. It was not clear if or when that vote might happen but Lightfoot and CPS CEO Janice Jackson provided an update on target reopening dates during a news conference that began at noon. With a big smile on her face, Lightfoot kicked off her remarks by announcing ‘the very good news that our children will be returning to in-person learning this week.’” On Saturday Chicago city leaders had announced that they had resumed talks with the Union following a Friday impasse (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “Everyone Wants Sushi to Go, and It’s Saving Some Restaurants,” (WSJ). 

Analysis & Arguments

Sixty Black health experts write urging Black Americans to get vaccinated (NYT).

Ross Douthat makes the case for Romney’s family plan (NYT).

Ramesh Ponnuru weighs the criticisms and defenses of Dr. Fauci (National Review).

John Washington reports on ICE’s use of Covid as a threat (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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