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May 10, 2021 - Brief Issue 194

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Covid-19 Vaccinations Hit Lowest Daily Rate Since March; States Start Turning Down Doses (Health & Science)

University of Washington Researchers Say Global and National Covid-19 Death Tolls Have Been Drastically Undercounted (Health & Science)

Research Shows Moderna and Pfizer Shots Hold Promise Against Variants (Health & Science)

KFF Poll Shows U.S. Parents Are Hesitant to Vaccinate Their Kids (Health & Science)

Vaccine Deserts and Vaccine Waste, Countries Without Vaccines or with Low Vaccination Rates Could Drive Variant Spread (Around the World) 

Pfizer to Vaccinate Olympic Athletes as Tokyo Battles Fourth Wave; Track and Field Competition on Sunday Serves as Test Run (Around the World)

Indian Teachers, Civil Servants Died After Working Polls (Around the World)

Canada Authorizes Vaccine for Children Ages 12-15 (Around the World)

NYC to Provide Free One-Shot Covid-19 Vaccines at Tourist Sites (U.S. Government & Politics)

Hiring Slowed in April (U.S. Economy)

Consumer Goods Prices Rising (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Birth Rate Fell Steeply During Pandemic, Reaching Lowest Level in Decades (U.S. Society)

Reopening Schools Struggle with Families’ Hesitancy to Return, Apparent Racial Disparities (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 32,707,993 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 578,503 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 444,920,177 tests and administered 259,716,989 vaccine doses, with 45.8% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 34.4% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 158,366,256 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,294,009 deaths. At least 94,422,263 people have recovered from the virus.

Covid-19 Vaccinations Hit Lowest Daily Rate Since March; States Start Turning Down Doses

The seven-day average for daily U.S. vaccinations dropped to 1.98 million as of Saturday, the first time it’s fallen below 2 million since early March (CNN). Some states are turning down their federally allotted vaccine doses in response to flagging demand – Wisconsin, for example, accepted just 8% of its available doses for next week (NYT). Over a third of the population is fully vaccinated, but the goal of herd immunity, for which 70-85% of the U.S. population will likely need to be vaccinated, is looking improbable. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said the government anticipated supply exceeding demand: "We knew that we would have a lot of supply by the end of April, early May, but we also knew that this would be the time that we had people who were more hesitant, that people wouldn't be rushing to be getting a vaccine." The Biden administration is aiming for 70% of the adult population to have at least one dose by July 4. To ramp up vaccination rates, said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the government needs to make the shot as convenient as possible, something the Biden administration is working toward by shifting its vaccination campaign to a local level. Dr. Adalja also said the White House should incentivize the shot by “aggressively” relaxing public health guidance for vaccinated people: “They seem to be several steps behind what infectious disease doctors like myself are telling people that are fully vaccinated what they can do.” Some experts worry that pockets of the country with lower vaccination rates will suffer variant-driven Covid-19 outbreaks in coming weeks. 

University of Washington Researchers Say Global and National Covid-19 Death Tolls Have Been Drastically Undercounted

According to a study from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 is likely over 900,000 – 57% higher than the figure reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – and almost 7 million globally, over twice the recorded amount (NPR, STAT). Some countries, University of Washington researchers estimated, have undercounted their death tolls by more than 10-fold. Their analysis was based on data about “excess mortalities”, or the number of deaths above the expected amount, from March 2020 to May 2021. Examining the many ways the Covid-19 pandemic has affected death rates – opioid-related deaths have increased, for example, while flu-related deaths have fallen – the researchers decided that spikes in some types of mortalities balanced out decreases elsewhere, so the overall number of excess deaths could be ascribed to Covid-19. Some experts praised the University of Washington study for its global approach. Others said the team was too bold in attributing all these excess mortalities to the virus. "Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf of Virginia Commonwealth University. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model." Regardless, health experts across the world agree that Covid-19 deaths are underreported. The University of Washington researchers projected 2.5 million more Covid-19 deaths globally by September. In the U.S., the CDC has predicted a steep decline in cases by mid-summer, depending on adherence to public health measures and the spread of variants (CNN).

Research Shows Moderna and Pfizer Shots Hold Promise Against Variants

Several Covid-19 vaccines, including two approved for emergency use in the U.S., are effective against more contagious viral variants, as reported by a spate of studies published Wednesday (CNN). The two-dose Pfizer vaccine appears to offer significant protection against B.1.1.7, the U.K. variant now dominant in the U.S., and B.1.351, the variant believed to have emerged in South Africa (NYT). One study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine and based on recent health data on over 200,000 people from Qatar, found the Pfizer shot to be 87-89.5% effective at preventing B.1.1.7 infection and 72.1-75% effective at preventing B.1.351 infection among fully vaccinated people. While these figures, particularly those for the South African variant, do represent a drop compared to the protection Pfizer offers against earlier coronavirus strains, one of the study’s authors said the results are still promising: “We’re talking about a variant which is probably the nastiest of all the variants of concern,” said Laith Abu-Raddad, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar. The researchers also reported nearly 100% protection against severe illness or death caused by any strain of the virus. Another study conducted by Pfizer and the Israel Ministry of Health, published in The Lancet, looked at over 230,000 Covid-19 infections in Israel between late January and early April of this year. The researchers found the Pfizer shot to be 95% effective at preventing Covid-19 infection, hospitalization, and death during a time when B.1.1.7 was causing almost all the country’s infections. Moderna also published data on its vaccine and coronavirus variants, investigating the effects of a B.1.351-specific booster shot administered to 40 already-fully-vaccinated patients (NYT). Before this half-dose booster shot, most of the patients had antibodies from the initial two-dose regimen in their blood, but about half had little protection against B.1.351 and P.1., a related Brazilian variant. After the booster, the patients’ antibodies against these strains increased. Lastly, American company Novavax released a study showing its shot to be 60% effective in HIV-negative adults in South Africa, home of B.1.351. 

KFF Poll Shows U.S. Parents Are Hesitant to Vaccinate Their Kids

With Pfizer moving to gain emergency authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine in adolescents aged 12 to 15 early next week, less than a third of parents are willing to get their kids vaccinated right away, a Kaiser Family Foundation poll found (CNN). About 29% of parents said they would get their under-18 child vaccinated the minute younger people are eligible; 32% said they would wait to see how vaccinations were working before doing so; the rest said they would get their child vaccinated only if a school required it, or not at all. These responses mirror the breakdown of adults’ attitudes toward the vaccine late last year, before the shot became more widely trusted. CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen said vaccinating children is crucial to getting the pandemic under control: "It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, for us to reach herd immunity unless our children are also vaccinated." As the U.S. continues to push for widespread vaccination, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech have applied for full Food and Drug Administration approval of their vaccine – the process will likely take months, but full FDA approval could make it easier for institutions like schools to require Covid-19 vaccinations (NYT, CNN). 

CDC Says the Virus Causing Covid-19 is Airborne, Reinforcing Scientists’ Claims

The CDC announced Friday on its website that the novel coronavirus can spread by air, a statement for which scientists have cited “overwhelming evidence” over the past year (NYT, WaPo). This addition to the CDC’s website clarifies former guidance stating that the virus can “sometimes also be spread via airborne transmission under special circumstances.” According to health experts, the scientific consensus that SARS-CoV-2 is an airborne virus could help inform indoor safety practices, shifting the focus from cleaning surfaces to providing proper ventilation. The CDC emphasized that its recommendations for preventative measures like social distancing and mask-wearing have not changed. The updated guidance follows months of indecision on the agency’s behalf – in September, the CDC pulled a draft from its website suggesting that the virus could be transmitted via air. 

Emergent Quality Control Issues Slow J&J Vaccination Efforts Worldwide

Millions of Johnson & Johnson vaccines produced by Emergent BioSolutions are waiting in storage in South Africa, Europe, and Canada, as regulators perform quality checks following the company’s manufacturing issues (NYT). The Emergent plant in Baltimore had to throw out 15 million doses in March due to a contamination issue, and the FDA found multiple other violations at the facility (WaPo). While the U.S. hasn’t yet approved vaccines made at the Emergent plant for distribution, countries in three continents received shipments from the plant. Officials in the E.U., Canada, and South Africa have reported no evidence of contamination in these J&J doses thus far. 

Bonus Read: “As the Covid-19 Crisis Ebbs in the U.S., Experts Brace For Some to Experience Psychological Fallout,” (STAT).

Around the World

Vaccine Deserts and Vaccine Waste, Countries Without Vaccines or with Low Vaccination Rates Could Drive Variant Spread

The World Health Organization said nearly a dozen countries, many of them in Africa, are still without vaccines. Chad, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Eritrea, and Tanzania are among the countries that have not received any doses of vaccines. “Delays and shortages of vaccine supplies are driving African countries to slip further behind the rest of the world in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and the continent now accounts for only 1% of the vaccines administered worldwide,” WHO warned Thursday (AP). According to UNICEF’s COVAX coordinator for Supply Division, Gian Gandhi, the places that lack access to vaccines run the risk of developing new and concerning variants that could then spread to other places. “So we should all be concerned about any lack of coverage anywhere in the world,” Gandhi said, urging higher-income countries to donate doses to the nations that are still waiting. Several small island nations in the Pacific also have yet to receive any vaccine, although the lack of outbreaks in some of those places has meant there is less urgency with inoculation campaigns. 

Meanwhile, some low-income countries that have gotten vaccines are either discarding them or giving them away. For instance, 24 countries, almost all in Africa, report using less than a third of their vaccines to date. Of those, 15 report using less than a fourth. According to NPR, “Officials and aid groups involved in vaccine deployment in these countries point to two main reasons: There hasn't been enough international help to cover the logistical costs of vaccination. And there's been a surge in distrust in the wake of recent news about extremely rare but potentially deadly side effects from some of the vaccines available to the continent.”

Asia

Pfizer to Vaccinate Olympic Athletes as Tokyo Battles Fourth Wave; Track and Field Competition on Sunday Serves as Test Run

Pfizer and its partner BioNTech announced last Thursday that they will donate vaccines to competitors and staff at the Tokyo Games (NPR). In a statement, the pharmaceutical companies said that they had signed a memorandum of understanding with the International Olympic Committee outlining the delivery of initial vaccine doses "expected to begin at the end of May where possible with the aim to ensure participating delegations receive second doses ahead of arrivals in Tokyo." As of now the Olympics are scheduled to start July 23, but there are persistent concerns about Japan’s readiness to host the Games and the risk of an outbreak among athletes and staff. Japan had imposed a state of emergency to try to contain a fourth wave of the outbreak, but last Wednesday officials in Tokyo asked the central government to extend that state of emergency until May 31. Just a week ago, on April 29, Japan recorded its largest number of daily infections since the start of the pandemic. 

On Sunday, nine athletes from around the world competed in a track and field competition after they were granted an exception and allowed to enter Japan, which is currently closed to visitors. The event, which was held at the National Stadium where the Games will also take place, served as an on-site test for the pandemic-constrained Olympics. The nine athletes were only allowed to be at their lodgings and the National Stadium and only staff and journalists were allowed to watch the events. Athletes were only permitted to enter the country a couple of days before the event. Olympic athletes will also arrive just a few days before their competition and will leave as soon as they are finished. 

Indian Teachers, Civil Servants Died After Working Polls

Thousands of government employees, including school teachers, that worked at polls in Uttar Pradesh last month were infected with Covid-19, and many of them died without access to healthcare or even a coronavirus test. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Around 2,000 civil servants likely died of Covid-19 after the elections in Uttar Pradesh, including more than 700 teachers, a count based on Covid-19 test results or symptoms, according to surveys by unions representing state employees and the teachers. The unions had tried to get the elections postponed.” Public health experts have said that the elections held in states across India earlier this year contributed to the surge that is currently overtaking the country; India is recording around 4,000 deaths a day and record numbers of new infections in what is the world’s fastest-growing Covid-19 surge. Elections in India entail mobilizing an army of civil servants to work the polls and assist with logistics, even in smaller, local elections. In Uttar Pradesh, there were about 1.3 million candidates vying for nearly 870,000 posts representing villages and districts across the state. The election tooK place in four phases in late April and about 124 million voters participated with more than 1.2 million government officers and employees administering the election. 

Americas

Canada Authorizes Vaccine for Children Ages 12-15

Last week Canada authorized the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children ages 12-15. The two-dose vaccine is the first allowed for use in that age group by the country’s drug regulator, Health Canada. According to the Washington Post, “Supriya Sharma, chief medical adviser for Health Canada, said the agency reviewed the data from a Pfizer study in the United States involving more than 2,200 adolescents aged 12 to 15. Half received the two-dose regimen administered to adults; the others were given a placebo. The study found the vaccine was 100 percent effective in preventing infection among participants who received two doses, Sharma said during a news conference in Ottawa. There were 18 cases of covid-19 among those who received a placebo. The participants given the vaccine produced strong antibody responses, similar to those observed in young adults aged 16 to 25.” According to Sharma, people younger than 19 account for about 20% of Canada’s coronavirus cases, although they are less likely to experience severe illness. 

U.S. Government & Politics

NYC to Provide Free One-Shot Covid-19 Vaccines at Tourist Sites

In an effort to boost New York City tourism, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the city will set up mobile vaccination clinics at major sites like the Empire State Building and Central Park, offering visitors a free Johnson & Johnson shot (WSJ). Tourism of NYC took a hit during the pandemic; the city’s tourism agency, NYC & Company, estimated the number of visitors coming into NYC won’t bounce back from the pandemic for another three years. New York State has residency requirements in place for Covid-19 vaccination, but de Blasio’s plan to deploy vaccine vans to tourist hotspots gained state approval (ABC). 

Bonus Read: “Some Startups Went From Rescue PPP Loans to SPAC Windfalls,” (WSJ).

U.S. Economy

Hiring Slowed in April

The United States added 266,000 jobs in April, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Friday (WSJ). The job numbers represent a slowing of hiring and a disappointment for many watching the job market. The Wall Street Journal writes that the numbers are “far short of the one million that economists had forecast and the weakest monthly gain since January. The deceleration came after payrolls rose a downwardly revised 770,000 in March and left total employment down by 8.2 million from its pre-pandemic level.”

Consumer Goods Prices Rising

As the economy begins to recover from the pandemic, consumer goods prices are increasing quickly (WSJ, CNN). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Price tags on consumer goods from processed meat to dishwashing products have risen by double-digit percentages from a year ago, according to NielsenIQ. Whirlpool Corp. freezers and dishwashers and Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. lawn and garden products are also getting costlier, the companies say. Some consumers are feeling stretched.” COmpanies report that they are seeing increased prices on their end for materials, shipping, and storage. 

Bonus Read: “Moderna Turns First Profit, Boosted by Its Covid-19 Vaccine,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

U.S. Birth Rate Fell Steeply During Pandemic, Reaching Lowest Level in Decades

The U.S. birth rate fell 4% in 2020, accelerating an overall downward trend that has been progressing over the past several decades, according to provisional data from the CDC (WaPo, CNN). Births have declined annually in the U.S. for the past six years, though never as steeply as in 2020, when only 3.6 million babies were born – the lowest number since 1979. Experts attribute this to societal shifts and delays in family planning caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. “It’s a shock but not a change in direction,” said Philip Cohen, a University of Maryland sociologist. “Some of the things that might be driving down birthrates in the long run – like economic insecurity, the cost of health care, housing, child care and education, and our awful work-family policies – are probably things that were exacerbated in the last year.” The 2020 drop in birth rate did not discriminate demographically, though it was most pronounced among women 35 to 44 years old, a group whose births have been on an upward trajectory since 2007, and teenagers, who are experiencing a consistent downward trend in births. The CDC data also showed a gap in conceptions right around the beginning of the pandemic. 

Reopening Schools Struggle with Families’ Hesitancy to Return, Apparent Racial Disparities

The New York Times reports that while many schools are reopening for in-person classes, they continue to struggle with families’ hesitancy to return (NYT). In addition, the hesitancy appears to fall disproportionately along racial lines. The New York Times reports, “Only a small slice of American schools remain fully closed: 12 percent of elementary and middle schools, according to a federal survey, as well as a minority of high schools. But the percentage of students learning fully remotely is much greater: more than a third of fourth and eighth graders, and an even larger group of high school students. A majority of Black, Hispanic and Asian-American students remain out of school.” Part of the hesitancy and disparity may be the result of the economic impact of the pandemic. The Times writes, “Teenagers from low-income families have taken on heavy loads of paid work, especially because so many parents lost jobs. Parents made new child care arrangements to get through the long months of school closures and part-time hours, and are now loath to disrupt established routines. Some families do not know that local public schools have reopened, because of language barriers or lack of effective communication from districts.” 

Pandemic Illuminates Deep-Seated Issues in U.S. Nursing Homes, Leading Families to Consider Other Options

After nursing homes were ravaged by Covid-19 outbreaks earlier in the pandemic, some seniors and their families are re-evaluating whether live-in care is the best option (NYT). “[The pandemic has] really changed the paradigm on how older adults want to live,” said Dr. Sarita Mohanty, chief executive of the SCAN Foundation, a nonprofit that focuses on seniors. According to Dr. Mohanty, most seniors would prefer to live at home late in life, rather than at a facility. While the pandemic has shed light on the issues affecting nursing homes, health experts say change has been long coming. Nursing homes have been experiencing issues like disease outbreaks and high staff turnover for years, leading some health experts and insurers to push for more at-home care. Liz Barlowe, former president of the Aging Life Care Association, said the pandemic is a wake-up call for the country to think more critically about senior care: “The damage is done,” Barlowe said. “Now we all know it can happen. We need to be looking at system change.”

Bonus Read: “Online Cheating Charges Upend Dartmouth Medical School,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Olivia Messer writes on how journalists are wrestling with trauma, despair, and moral injury while covering the pandemic (Study Hall)

The New York Times profiles the experiences of new mothers during the pandemic (NYT).

Brian Osgood writes on how neglect has come to define Covid containment in California’s prisons (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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