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September 17, 2020 - Brief Issue 95

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus the week of September 21st, as New America and ASU host their sixth annual Future Security Forum. The forum will include multiple panels on the security impact of coronavirus with speakers including Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, political editor of the Economist, on their new book The Wake Up Call Why the Pandemic Has Exposed the Weakness of the West - And How to Fix It. A full schedule can be found here and you can register online here.

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Top Headlines

The CDC Anticipates Six to Nine Months to Vaccinate Enough Americans to “Get Back to Regular Life”; Until Then Masking Will Remain a Key Tool; President Trump Contradicts CDC, Says Director “Confused” and “Made a Mistake” (Health & Science)

U.S. Government Announces Plans to Distribute Potential Vaccine within 24 Hours of Approval; Lacks $6 Billion for Vaccine Distribution (Health & Science)

Eli Lilly: Antibody Drug Lowers Levels of SARS-CoV-2 in Some Patients, According to Interim Results from Ongoing Study (Health & Science)

Gauss and Cellex Announce First at-Home COVID-19 Test that Gives Results in 15 Minutes; COVID Breathalyzer Tests in Development Can Potentially Give Results in Seconds; Nature: Rapid Antigen Tests are a “Game-Changer” (Health & Science)

Don’t Turn COVID-19 Into a Political Football, Says WHO (Around the World)

Confusion Reigns in Madrid Over Contradicting Lockdown Claims (Around the World)

India Leads World in Cases, Deaths as Infections Surpass Five Million (Around the World)

Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi In Good Health After Possible Coronavirus Exposure (Around the World)

South Africa To Open Borders, Downgrade Lockdown to Least Restrictive Level (Around the World)

After Accusing Scientists of Sedition, HHS Spokesman Michael Caputo Takes Leave of Absence; Caputo Deputy Paul Alexander to Permanently Leave (U.S. Government & Politics)

Senate GOP Rejects Trump Call for More Coronavirus Relief (U.S. Government & Politics)

Federal Reserve Plans Near Zero Interest Rates Through 2023 (U.S. Economy)

Big 10 to Hold Football Season, Trump Touts Reopening as a Victory (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 6,631,561 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 196,831 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,525,573 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 90,710,730 tests. Worldwide, there have been 29,893,298 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 941,345 deaths. At least 20,335,410 people have recovered from the virus.

The CDC Anticipates Six to Nine Months to Vaccinate Enough Americans to “Get Back to Regular Life”; Until Then Masking Will Remain a Key Tool; President Trump Contradicts CDC, Says Director “Confused” and “Made a Mistake”

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Robert Redfield told U.S. senators Wednesday that once a vaccine is approved, it will probably take six to nine months for a vaccine to be “fully available to the American public, so we begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life,” adding, “I think we are probably looking at late second quarter, third quarter 2021” (WaPo). Redfield said initial quantities of the vaccine will be limited and will go to “those first responders and those at greatest risk for death, and then eventually that will expand" (CNN). The gradual increase in availability of the vaccines will create “a time lag between when a vaccine is approved and when it could have a measurable effect in controlling the pandemic,” writes the Washington Post.

Redfield’s estimate is in line with other public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). “It won’t be until we get into 2021 that you’ll have hundreds of millions of doses, and just the logistics, constraints in vaccinating large numbers of people,” Fauci said in an interview with CNN. “It’s going to take months to get enough people vaccinated to have an umbrella of immunity over the community so that you don’t have to worry about easy transmission” (WaPo). “I don’t think we’re going to see an authorization before the election,” said former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who sits on the board of directors of Pfizer, one of the developers of a leading vaccine candidate (Bloomberg).

Until enough Americans are vaccinated to significantly slow transmission, Redfield emphasized the importance of masking, even for individuals who have been vaccinated, because a vaccine is unlikely to have 100% effectiveness. The FDA has indicated that 50% effectiveness would be acceptable; a vaccine that is 50% effective could still have significant benefits (FDA). It could potentially cut the death toll in half, as well as potentially reducing the severity of the disease and its long term effects. Some flu vaccines, for example, reduce the chance of contracting flu by only 40 to 60 percent. 

"These face masks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have," Redfield said, holding up a blue face mask. "If we did it for six, eight, 10, 12 weeks, we'd bring this pandemic under control" (CNN). Brett Giroir, Assistant Secretary for Health at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), also warned senators that containing the pandemic will require Americans to “exercise personal responsibility, especially wearing masks and avoiding crowds” (Politico).

However, Wednesday evening, President Trump disputed Redfield’s statements about the vaccine timeline and the importance of masking and reiterated his claim that a vaccine could be ready as early as October, saying he spoke with Redfield after the Senate panel hearing. “I think he got the message maybe confused, maybe it was stated incorrectly,” Trump told reporters. “It could be announced in October, it could be announced a little bit after October,” he said (WSJ). Trump said “I think he made a mistake when he said that. . . . We’re ready to distribute immediately to a vast section of the country” (CNN, WaPo). Redfield quickly responded, emphasizing that while a vaccine will help Americans get back to a normal life, the “best defense we currently have” is “wearing a mask, washing your hands, social distancing and being careful about crowds” (Politico, Twitter).

Redfield and the CDC have come under fire in the past months for bowing to political pressures and timelines. In a Senate panel hearing, Redfield said the “scientific integrity” of his agency’s reports “has not been compromised and it will not be compromised under my watch.” The CDC, he said, is preparing for the possibility of vaccine distribution as early as November because it did not want to repeat the problem of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, when a vaccine became available and states were not ready to receive and distribute it (WaPo). “The worst thing that could happen is if we have a vaccine delivered and we’re still not ready to distribute,” Redfield told Senate lawmakers. “There was absolutely no political thinking about it” (AP). Bonus Reads: “As Controversies Swirl, CDC Director Is Seen as Allowing Agency to Buckle to Political Influence,” (STAT); “We Can’t Allow the CDC to Be Tainted by Politics” (Scientific American); “The Risks of Moving Too Fast on a Coronavirus Vaccine” (Axios).

U.S. Government Announces Plans to Distribute Potential Vaccine within 24 Hours of Approval; Lacks $6 Billion for Vaccine Distribution

On Wednesday, the U.S. government unveiled plans to begin shipping COVID-19 vaccines within 24 hours after regulatory approval of a vaccine (AP, USAToday).The plans appeared in a report to Congress (HHS) and a separate "playbook" for states (CDC). In the playbook, the CDC said a vaccine would likely receive an emergency use authorization before full approval (CNBC). Hundreds of thousands of doses of different vaccine candidates have already been produced in preparation for the possibility that one or more will prove to be safe and effective and gain FDA approval. However, the logistics of coordinating the supply chain and rolling out one or more vaccines to fifty states and hundreds of thousands of people are challenging. Among other things, many vaccine candidates require refrigeration or freezing, and Pfizer’s vaccine candidate must be kept at 94 degrees below zero. "Significant additional planning is needed to operationalize a vaccination response to COVID-19, which is much larger in scope and complexity than seasonal influenza or other previous outbreak-related vaccination responses," the playbook warns.

The administration plans to put in place a database to track vaccines, who gets vaccinated, and help ensure that each person gets the correct type of vaccine and dosage. Most vaccines will likely need to be given in two shots, about three to four weeks apart, and, if more than one vaccine is approved, the system will help ensure that both shots are of the same vaccine. However, the new database is controversial and duplicates several functions of existing vaccine registries, as we noted Tuesday (Politico). The plans are short on key details, including how the tracking system will actually work, according to Soumi Saha, senior director of advocacy for Premier Inc., one of the largest group purchasers for U.S. hospitals and providers. “The reality is it’s not a plan at all,” she said. “It really is silent on the critical details that are really necessary to implement a mass vaccination campaign of this nature successfully” (WSJ).

Federal health officials have asked state and local governments to create and submit plans to Washington for receiving and distributing vaccines as early as November 1; states and cities have 30 days to submit their plans.

Health officials said that any COVID-19 vaccine would be free to the American public. Officials said they are working out some "complications" with Medicare and estimate that, at worst, Medicare beneficiaries may pay $3.50 out of pocket (Hill). However, the government lacks the estimated $6 billion for distributing a coronavirus vaccine, CDC director Robert Redfield said at a Senate hearing Wednesday. Amid partisan disputes, Congress has not adopted pandemic relief legislation that has proposed those funds, which are “as urgent as getting the manufacturing facilities up,” said Redfield (WaPo).

Eli Lilly: Antibody Drug Lowers Levels of SARS-CoV-2 in Some Patients, According to Interim Results from Ongoing Study 

Eli Lilly’s antibody drug may have helped some patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 lower their levels of SARS-CoV-2 in a small, 450-participant study, Lilly announced in a press release Wednesday (Eil Lilly). Within the ongoing study, the interim analysis yielded a puzzling finding: patients who received the middle dose had significantly lowered levels of SARS-CoV-2 after 11 days, but the patients who received the highest dose did not. Usually a drug shows a stronger response at higher doses, known as dose response, so the fact that only the middle dose raised the desired response opens the question of whether the results were due to chance, given the relatively small number of participants. Lilly said that the problem may be due to the study’s design: the target of 11 days may have been too long, because most patients had almost no virus at that time. Lilly said that after three days, patients who received the antibody had lower levels of virus. Scientists say that while the study is a good start, Lilly’s discussion of seeking emergency use authorization is premature (In the Pipeline, STAT).

Lilly also announced “a 72 percent risk reduction in hospitalization,” which several publications emphasized in their headlines (Bloomberg, FoxBusiness, Reuters, WSJ). Patients taking the drug had a lower rate of hospitalization – 1.7% or five patients – versus 6 percent or nine patients for those with placebo. However, Lilly declined to say whether those results are statistically significant (Science, STAT).

The researchers found potentially resistant viral mutations in eight percent of the patients who received the drug versus six percent in those with placebo. Lilly is also testing an antibody cocktail that combines this antibody with another one that targets a different part of the virus: the combination of antibodies makes it less likely that a virus will acquire the combination of mutations that would make it resistant to the drug. Regeneron has also used the strategy of combining two antibodies and are testing their cocktail in a large, controlled, randomized trial, with preliminary results expected later this month, as we covered in Tuesday’s brief.

Lilly also recently made news when its arthritis drug baricitinib, when given with the antiviral drug remdesivir, helped coronavirus patients recover about one day earlier on average compared to remdesivir alone, as we covered in Wednesday’s brief. Bonus Read: “A Groundbreaking Guide to Making ‘Cocktails’ to Treat COVID-19,” (Nature).

Gauss and Cellex Announce First at-Home COVID-19 Test that Gives Results in 15 Minutes; COVID Breathalyzer Tests in Development Can Potentially Give Results in Seconds; Nature: Rapid Antigen Tests are a “Game-Changer”

Gauss and Cellex have announced the first rapid COVID-19 test that can be fully completed at home and are seeking emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug (FDA) administration this fall (Axios, CNBC, PRWeb). Gauss, which develops computer vision applications for healthcare, and Cellex, a biotech firm, have partnered to create an at-home antigen test. The test is designed for a user to swab both nostrils, place the swab in a vial of buffer solution, then place four drops from the tube on a rapid test cassette. When the test lines appear, the user will take a picture using a phone, and Gauss’s app will use AI to send the results within 15 minutes. Cellex CEO James Li says the test delivers a correct positive result almost 90 percent of the time, and a correct negative result nearly 100 percent of the time, compared to a PCR test, the “gold standard,” which looks for viral RNA rather than antigens that coat the virus’s surface. PCR tests are highly sensitive, but also slower and more expensive.

Rapid antigen tests like Gauss and Cellex’s, or Abbott Laboratories’ new $5 credit-card-sized testing device, recently authorized by the FDA, have the potential to be game changers in controlling the pandemic (Nature). The U.S. government is spending $760 million on 150 million of Abbott’s tests and Abbott plans to produce 50 million tests per month in October. 

Cheaper, faster, and more accessible tests – even if they are somewhat less sensitive – are key to a shift in public health thinking about testing: a shift from diagnosing an individual to testing for infectiousness, as we’ve noted in previous briefs. For an individual patient, the accuracy of the test is crucial. But from a public health standpoint, it is more important to test people who are infectious. Tests that are used to monitor a population or an organization to prevent infections or outbreaks – say, in a school or office – need to be frequent and low cost, with a rapid turnaround time. Infrequent testing with a very sensitive test could lead to some individuals being quarantined when they are already in recovery and unlikely to infect others. Frequent testing with less sensitive tests mean that people can be identified and isolated while they are still infectious, and repeat-testing those individuals within 24 or 48 hours can help separate those who are in recovery, and less likely to be infectious, from those at the beginning of an infection, when they are able to spread the disease. 

Several innovative types of rapid tests are also in the development pipeline, some using the gene-editing tool CRISPR, while others are faster variations on the PCR test, for example the saliva-based PCR test being developed by Yale University and being tested by the NBA, as we noted in earlier briefs. 

Breathalyzer-style tests have the potential to be among the fastest. Ohio State University Engineering Professor Perena Gouma is developing a breathalyzer that would test for COVID-19 (Wired). In 2017, she invented a breath monitoring device to detect the flu through the exhaled chemical compound isoprene; her new breathalyzer is designed to detect compounds that she believes are biomarkers that indicate COVID-19. Her device displays results in only 15 seconds and can send them wirelessly. “With this technology, you can monitor the next day and the day after,” Gouma says. “Nothing prevents you from knowing your state of health at any time.” Gouma began a clinical study this summer at Ohio State Wexner Medical Center and plans to seek FDA emergency use authorization, with hopes to distribute the devices as soon as this fall.

A team led by Nian Sun, a professor of engineering at Northeastern University, has developed a handheld breathalyzer with “tiny imprinted cavities” that exactly match the coronavirus’s spike proteins. “This kind of sensor has extremely high specificity,” Sun says. “We can even differentiate different [SARS-CoV-2] strains” (Wired). Sun hopes to test his device soon at Massachusetts General Hospital and with volunteers from Northeastern University. 

Scientists Are Uncovering More Evidence About How COVID-19 Damages the Heart 

Growing evidence shows that COVID-19 can damage the heart, even in mild cases (Science). Ongoing studies are following COVID-19 patients over time to find out how often patients suffer from myocarditis, or heart inflammation, and how long it lasts. In more than half of the cases, inflammation resolves without problems, but other patients suffer from arrhythmia and impaired heart function; some rare cases need a heart transplant. Because so many people have contracted the coronavirus, answers to these questions have implications for future medical practice: if only a small percentage of coronavirus patients suffer from heart failure, that could nevertheless be a significant proportion of future cardiac patients. 

A team led by Valentina Püntmann, a cardiologist at University Hospital Frankfurt, scanned the hearts of 100 coronavirus patients using MRI and found cardiac abnormalities in 78 people and active inflammation in 60 (JAMA Cardiology). While the study has been amended, its main conclusions still hold (JAMA Cardiology). Other studies are trying to uncover the mechanisms by which the coronavirus damages the heart. As we noted last week, in studies in lab dishes, the SARS-CoV-2 virus appears to slice the long fibers in cardiac muscle that allow the heart to contract, scientists at Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco reported in a preprint manuscript (bioRxiv). One study found inflammation in the heart’s blood vessels in autopsies of COVID-19 patients, while another autopsy study found death of cells scattered throughout the heart (JAMA Cardiology, Circulation). Both scientific and media reports have found that athletes are suffering from COVID-19 related cardiac problems (Arstechnica, JAMA Cardiology, Scientific American).

Around the World

Don’t Turn COVID-19 Into a Political Football, Says WHO

Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergency expert, said on Thursday in response to confusing messages coming from U.S. leaders and health experts that world leaders should not turn COVID-19 into a game of “political football.” “It is important that we have consistent messaging from all levels, and it’s not for one country or one entity; consistent messaging between science and between government,” said Ryan when asked about recent contradictory messages from U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention director Robert Redfield and U.S. President Donald Trump on the timetable for public availability of vaccines. Trump said on Wednesday that Redfield had been “confused” when he said that the vaccine would be widely available by mid-2021, instead arguing that the roll-out would begin much sooner. Ryan, who has experience with Ebola outbreaks in Africa and other epidemics, said community engagement is vital during outbreaks. “It’s understanding the confusion, it’s understanding their concern, it’s understanding their apprehension. And not laughing at it and not turning that into some kind of political football,” he added (Reuters).

Europe

Confusion Reigns in Madrid Over Contradicting Lockdown Claims

Madrid is in a state of confusion after the Spanish capital’s regional premier denied statements from her deputy health chief suggesting that a new lockdown was imminent. Dr Antonio Zapatero, one of the capital region’s main health officials, told reporters on Wednesday morning that “action is needed as soon as possible” in Madrid, adding that decisions were being made on the specifics of a new lockdown. His comments evidently shocked regional premier Isabel Diaz Ayuso, who was presiding over a cabinet meeting at the time. Spokespeople for Ayuso proceeded to announce that no decisions would be made until Friday. Sources close to the premier told the El Pais newspaper that a possible lockdown had not even been on the agenda at Wednesday’s meeting. Amid the uncertainty, it is feared that people in Madrid’s most impacted areas will disperse elsewhere to avoid a lockdown. Zapatero offered no details on what the new restrictions, if they occur at all, would entail (El Pais). Madrid has accounted for roughly one-third of Spain’s new infections in the past week, which averaged 8,200 daily across the nation. The city currently has 359 COVID-19 patients in intensive care. “In a way, it’s like the situation in March but in slow motion,” said one intensive care unit doctor in Madrid (AP).

Bonus Read: “In Denmark, the Forest is the New Classroom,” (WaPo).

Asia-Pacific 

Coronavirus Drives Discrimination in Asia, Says Red Cross

Discrimination against migrants and other foreigners in Asia is being driven by the pandemic, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warned on Thursday. Polls of 5,000 people in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Pakistan found that about half of respondents blamed specific groups for the spread of COVID-19, with many blaming immigrants and foreigners. People also tended to blame people from China. More than half of Indonesian respondents blamed “foreigners and rule-breakers” for the pandemic, while Malaysians tended to blame “illegal foreigners.” Pakistanis tended to blame pilgrims coming from Iran (generally Shia Muslims) as well as people from China, while people in Myanmar tended to broadly blame foreigners, again citing Chinese people in particular, for spreading the pandemic. “It is particularly concerning that both national migrant and foreign workers are blamed for the spread of COVID-19 as they are quite vulnerable already,” said Dr Viviane Fluck, the agency’s Asia-Pacific community engagement and accountability coordinator (Reuters).

India Leads World in Cases, Deaths as Infections Surpass Five Million 

India’s total case count surpassed five million on Wednesday as the nation leads the world in new infections and deaths. From September 1-15, India counted a total of 1,308,991 new infections and 16,307 deaths while the U.S. tallied 557,657 new cases and 11,461 deaths. Sixty percent of new cases came from five states: Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Dr Balram Bhargava, Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research, offered solace in the fact that the outbreak could have been much worse by this time had it not been for the lockdown that ended in May. "We distributed the curve in such a way that we did not have those large number of deaths and that was attributable scientifically because of a very effective lockdown that was imposed in the months late March, April and May. So, we did not really have a huge peak from that perspective," he said (Times of India). 

As we have noted before, however, experts suspect that India’s official case count is a vast underestimate owing to little testing and shoddy bureaucratic record-keeping in vast swathes of the country. Ramanan Laxminarayan, a senior research scholar at Princeton University, said that antibody studies in India suggest that the true number of infections may be closer to 100 million than the official tally of 4.4 million cases. Community medicine specialist Dr. Hemant Shewade called into question India’s surprisingly low fatality rate, stating that the majority of deaths in underserved rural areas never make it into official statistics, let alone assigned a cause, even in normal times (CNN).

Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi In Good Health After Possible Coronavirus Exposure

Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi is in “good health,” says a government spokesperson, but is being isolated after a member of her staff tested positive for the coronavirus. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize Winner and de-facto leader of the country, is doing her usual duties sans most in-person meetings with staffers and officials, said presidential spokesman U Zaw Htay. The government on Tuesday started demanding that all government workers below the rank of senior ministerial official start working in home isolation for half the month to curb recent outbreaks within government offices. Myanmar’s isolated capital Naypyidaw has witnessed a recent spike in infections, with cases this month thus far increasing from two to 34 (Myanmar Times). Nationwide infections have increased 10-fold in September. It has seen a total of 3502 cases and 35 deaths (Myanmar Times).

Bonus Read: “COVID-19 Has Crushed Everybody’s Economy—Except for South Korea’s,” (Foreign Policy)

Africa

South Africa To Open Borders, Downgrade Lockdown to Least Restrictive Level

South Africa on Sunday will adopt a “Level 1” lockdown, the least restrictive level, after previously adopting some of the world’s toughest public health measures, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said at a Wednesday press conference. People will once again be able to enter the country for the first time since March provided they tested negative for the coronavirus in the 72 hours prior to travel, while the nightly curfew will only go into effect at midnight. Public venues will also now be allowed to host up to 250 people. The changes are the most drastic relaxations yet in a country that had previously banned interprovincial travel along with alcohol and tobacco sales at the pandemic’s start. While the summer saw the reopening of some non-essential businesses, the government nonetheless retained a cautious approach amid Africa’s largest outbreak. South Africa had 772 new cases on Wednesday, its lowest level since May (Business Day).

U.S. Government & Politics

After Accusing Scientists of Sedition, HHS Spokesman Michael Caputo Takes Leave of Absence; Caputo Deputy Paul Alexander to Permanently Leave

On Wednesday, the Department of Health and Human Services announced that its top spokesperson Michael Caputo would take a leave of absence (CNN, NYT, WaPo). The announcement comes a day after Caputo apologized for social media comments that accused government scientists of “sedition” and called for Trump supporters to prepare for an armed insurrection. Caputo has been at the center of controversy this week following reports originally in Politico that he and other HHS political appointees had sought and obtained review over CDC scientific reports and reportedly used that review to press for reports on risks from coronavirus to be toned down for political reasons. As we covered in an earlier brief, those reports led the House Democrats to open a probe into the issue. An HHS statement read, “Today, the Department of Health and Human Services is announcing that HHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Michael Caputo has decided to take a leave of absence to focus on his health and the well-being of his family. Mr. Caputo will be on leave for the next 60 days.”

Meanwhile Caputo’s deputy, Paul Alexander, will permanently leave his position at HHS, following his role in controversies over political interference in CDC products (WaPo, Politico). In one email, Alexander had called the CDC’s reports, “hit pieces on the administration.” The Washington Post writes, “Alexander’s departure so soon after these revelations suggests his specific actions on the coronavirus were a bridge too far.”

Senate GOP Rejects Trump Call for More Coronavirus Relief

On Wednesday, Senate Republicans rejected Trump’s calls for them to embrace a larger coronavirus relief package, according to a report in Politico (Politico). On Wednesday morning, Trump tweeted that Democrats were “heartless” but also urged Republicans to “go for the much higher numbers ... it all comes back to the USA anyway.” Last week, 52 of 53 Republican senators voted for a narrow relief package. Senate Majority Whip John Thune commented, “If the number gets too high, anything that got passed in the Senate will be passed mostly with Democrat votes and a handful of Republicans so it’s gonna have to stay within a realistic range if we want to maximize, optimize the number of Republican senators that will vote for it.” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy also suggested that passing a larger package would be “difficult.” Democrats continue to push for a larger relief package.

De Blasio Furloughs Himself, Mayoral Staffers Amid NYC Budget Shortfall

On Wednesday, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced that he would place himself and hundreds of staffers in his office on a week-long unpaid furlough in order to help deal with the city’s multi-billion dollar budget shortfall (Politico, Axios). Politico writes, “All 500 employees of the mayor’s office will be required to take five unpaid days off between October 1 and March, saving about $1 million for the city. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the $9 billion in revenue the city has lost due to the coronavirus crisis, but de Blasio said the move was intended to send a message that the budget pain is being felt at the top.” De Blasio has also threatened to lay off 22,000 city workers, though the plan is on hold as the city seeks the ability to borrow from the state.

U.S. Economy

Federal Reserve Plans Near Zero Interest Rates Through 2023

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve suggested that it plans to maintain interest rates at close to zero until 2023 to help aid the economic recovery from the coronavirus’s impact (WSJ, Politico, NYT). The Wall Street Journal writes, “all 17 officials who participated said they expect to keep rates near zero at least through next year, and 13 projected rates would stay there through 2023.” The committee stated that it would not raise rates until inflation rose to 2 percent and “is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also called for further action by Congress, stating, “More fiscal support is likely to be needed.”

Retail Spending Growth Slows in August

Retail spending grew for the fourth straight month in August, but the pace of growth slowed, according to data released by the Department of Commerce on Wednesday (WSJ). Spending rose .6 percent. Retail spending was hit hard by the pandemic but has recovered more quickly than other sectors of the economy. August is the third month in which spending returned to pre-pandemic levels.

U.S. Society

Big 10 to Hold Football Season, Trump Touts Reopening as a Victory

The Big 10 Conference will play out its football season this fall, as on Wednesday the organization reversed an earlier decision to delay the season due to the pandemic (Politico). The reversal comes as President Trump has pushed for sports to reopen even going so far as to call the conference’s commissioner. The vote to resume the season was unanimous, and the season will start on October 23. Trump touted the decision as a personal victory on Twitter, tweeting, “Great News: BIG TEN FOOTBALL IS BACK. All teams to participate. Thank you to the players, coaches, parents, and all school representatives. Have a FANTASTIC SEASON! It is my great honor to have helped!!!” and proceeding to say, “I said the same thing to the Big Ten and they did. And now I'm saying it to (the) Pac-12. You have time, you really have time right now. Get going.”

Bonus Read: Brooklyn Museum to Sell 12 Works as Pandemic Changes the Rules,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Former FDA Deputy Commissioner William B. Schultz explores the need to balance speedy vaccine rollout with thorough safety and efficacy scrutiny (NYT).

Michael Brendan Dougherty writes there is no “Trump vaccine” and those who try to personalize vaccine development either to promote or protest Trump should not be trusted (National Review).

H. Holden Thorpe, the editor-in-chief of Science, discusses the politics of science in the time of coronavirus (Wired).

Ashish Jha argues that President Trump’s words represent a public health opportunity to educate his supporters (Boston Globe).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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