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What to Watch at Fed Meeting; Fed Lending Programs Extended; Biden Urges Expansion of Fed's Mandate
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Good day. Jerome Powell could shed light on the Fed's thinking about how to provide more support to the economy after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day policy meeting today. Nick Timiraos takes a look at what to watch for. The Fed said yesterday it extended its emergency lending programs by three months. Meanwhile, Joe Biden said he wants to change the Federal Reserve Act to add targeting racial gaps in jobs, wages and wealth to the central bank's mandate. And Michael S. Derby takes a look at how the Fed has already moved in that direction.
Now on to today’s news and analysis.
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Fed Deliberates How, When to Roll Out Policy Details
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will have to consider the sequence of their next moves.
PHOTO: TASOS KATOPODIS/GETTY IMAGES
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Federal Reserve officials are likely to continue their debate Wednesday about how to provide more support to the economy now that interest rates are pinned near zero, but are unlikely to announce major policy changes. Then, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell follows with a news conference starting at 2:30 p.m., at which he could explain how he and his colleagues are thinking about possible additional steps. Here’s a look at what to watch.
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Derby's Take: Biden Fed Plan Jibes With Path Central Bank Is Already on
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When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, he treated the Federal Reserve as an adversary. In a plan released by his 2020 challenger Joe Biden on Tuesday, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee seeks to spur the central bank down a road it’s already on. Read more.
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Fed Extends Emergency Lending Programs by Three Months
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The Federal Reserve said that the extension of the programs through Dec. 31 would “facilitate planning by potential facility participants and provide certainty that the facilities will continue to be available to help the economy recover.”
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Biden Urges Bigger Role for Fed in Addressing Racial Wealth Gap
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Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday called on the Federal Reserve to play a bigger role in addressing racial economic inequality, demanding it look beyond its current mandate.
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Coronavirus Stimulus Plan Splits Senate Republicans
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Republican senators are bracing for major defections on the next coronavirus aid package as GOP lawmakers’ antipathy toward government spending runs into the turbulence of election-year politics.
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Key Developments Around the World
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Euro Nears Two-Year High as Traders Bet on Europe’s Virus Progress
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The euro traded near a two-year high against the dollar, and is on course for its best monthly performance in four years, on signs that Europe has largely slowed down coronavirus infections and taken steps toward bolstering its weakest economies.
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IMF Grants $4.3 Billion Coronavirus Loan to South Africa
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The loan is the largest any African country has received since the start of the coronavirus crisis, underscoring the force of the pandemic’s blow to the continent’s most developed economy and prompting concerns that the funds could encourage government corruption.
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EU Levels Sanctions Over Hong Kong Security Law
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The new sanctions came on the same day as EU and Chinese officials held a round of talks on a long-discussed investment agreement that the bloc hopes would give its companies greater and fairer access to China's vast market.
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Financial Regulation Roundup
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AIG Unit to Pay $20 Million to Settle SEC Probe
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A unit of American International Group Inc. agreed to pay $20 million to settle claims that it failed to disclose payments intended to draw more business to the firm, the first case to emerge from a crackdown on practices in the market for teachers’ retirement plans.
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Cboe Proposes Plan That Could Curb Advantages of Fast Traders
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Exchange operator Cboe Global Markets Inc. is proposing to launch periodic auctions lasting one-tenth of a second, during which buyers and sellers could come together to trade stocks, a new mechanism that could limit the advantages of high-frequency traders.
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Former Malaysian Prime Minister Found Guilty in 1MDB Case
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Najib Razak was sentenced to 12 years imprisonment and fined nearly $50 million by a Malaysian court that found him guilty of abuse of power in connection with one of the world’s largest financial scandals that resulted in his defeat in the country’s 2018 elections.
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8:30 a.m.: U.S. Commerce Department releases June advance economic indicators report
2 p.m.: U.S. Federal Reserve releases policy statement
2:30 p.m.: Fed’s Powell holds press conference
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8:30 a.m.: U.S. Commerce Department releases first estimate of second-quarter GDP and annual update
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Tuesday's Data Bolsters View U.S. Economy Is Slowing
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On a day when the Federal Reserve announced some of its key emergency lending facilities will keep going until the end of the year, new data points to trouble for the U.S. economy. The Dallas Fed said in its latest service sector report for July that "labor market indicators suggest further cuts in jobs and employee hours, while firms’ outlooks once again turned pessimistic," amid a massive retreat in retail activity as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated in Texas. Additionally, The Conference Board said that in July consumers grew less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remained subdued about their financial prospects. “Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending,” The Conference Board said. The New York Fed also weighed in and said the likely path of economic activity in the U.S. this year is getting worse. Its latest update of its real-time growth tracker, the Weekly Economic Index, predicts a decline in GDP of 7.24% for the year, compared with a decline of 6.65% forecast last week. The index had been predicting a steady trend of improvement
for some time after bottoming out at a forecast decline of 11.48% on April 25. The New York Fed index is more evidence that whatever recovery the economy had been seeing is stalling amid surging cases of coronavirus illness coupled with a foundering national government response.
—Michael S. Derby
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Chinese Banks and Slow-Boiling Frogs
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Investors in the equity of China’s major banks may discover that recognizing major threats quickly is better than allowing the reality to sink in over time, Mike Bird writes at The Wall Street Journal.
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U.S. home-price growth slowed slightly in May, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas, rising at a 4.5% annual rate, compared with a 4.6% rate in the prior month.
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U.S. consumer confidence slipped in July as a spike in coronavirus cases prompted renewed restrictions across the country, lowering The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to 92.6 from an upwardly revised 98.3 in June. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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Europe’s banks are starting to reveal the extent of the pandemic’s impact on their businesses.
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Some European governments are warning that a recent surge in coronavirus infections could burgeon into a second wave, as the summer tourism season peaks and people express fatigue with measures that had successfully brought the spread under control in Europe.
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Debt financing for acquisitions and leveraged buyouts by high-yield European companies jumped to over €6.4 billion ($7.5 billion) in the past four weeks, ending a nearly five-month lull in the market, according to Dealogic
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Malaysia recorded its largest-ever monthly trade surplus in June as exports to China and the U.S. rebounded, lifting the surplus 98.7% from a year earlier to 20.89 billion ringgit ($4.91 billion), the Ministry of International Trade and Industry said. (DJN)
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This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco and Ed Ballard in London.
Send us your tips, suggestions and feedback. Write to:
Jon Hilsenrath, Michael Derby, Nell Henderson, Nick Timiraos, Jason Douglas, Paul Hannon, Harriet Torry, Kate Davidson, David Harrison, Kim Mackrael, Tom Fairless, Megumi Fujikawa, Michael Maloney, Paul Kiernan, James Glynn
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