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GDP, PCE Inflation Data in Focus
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Two key economic data are in focus this Friday: fourth-quarter gross-domestic product and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. U.S. economic growth is forecast to have almost halved in October through December, while the personal-consumption expenditures price index is expected to show inflation held steady in December. In advance of that data release, Fed governor Stephen Miran dialed back his calls for how deeply the central bank should cut rates this year, telling an interviewer that recent data have reflected a stronger economy than he had expected. Meanwhile, in Europe, Christine Lagarde said she expects completing her mission as president of the European Central Bank will take until the end of her term, amid speculation that she will resign early.
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GDP, PCE Inflation Data in Focus This Friday
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Photo: Richard B. Levine/Levine Roberts/ZUMA Press
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Just how hot is the economy running?
A first reading of U.S. growth in October through December is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Gross domestic product likely grew at a 2.5% annualized rate, according to WSJ-polled economists, slowing from 4.4% in the previous quarter.
Another key data point this morning: the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This will likely show inflation, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index, held steady at 2.8% in the 12 months through December. The Supreme Court could also potentially rule on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
Other data to be released: new home sales for November and December; preliminary February purchasing managers indexes from S&P Global; final consumer-sentiment data for February from the University of Michigan.
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Fed’s Miran Now Sees a Less Accommodative Rate Path
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“The labor market came in a little bit better than I came to expect over the last few months,” Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said in an interview. “There’s been some signs of even more firming in goods inflation,” he added. “And so those two things combined would make me undo what I did in December.”
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Fed’s Daly Says Policy ‘In a Good Place’
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San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that monetary policy is “in a good place” and that officials at the central bank have been assessing what effect artificial intelligence will have on the economy.
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Christine Lagarde Says Her ‘Baseline’ Is Finishing ECB Term
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“When I look back at all these years, I think that we have accomplished a lot, that I have accomplished a lot,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Thursday.
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“We need to consolidate and make sure that this is really solid and reliable. So my baseline is that it will take until the end of my term.” She declined to comment on a report, published in the Financial Times earlier in the week, that she would step down before her term is set to end in October 2027.
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Bank of Mexico Open to Resuming Interest-Rate Cuts
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The Bank of Mexico remains open to resuming interest-rate cuts if it confirms a limited inflationary impact of recent tax and tariff increases, minutes of the bank’s latest meeting showed Thursday.
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U.S. Leading Indicators Forecast Slow Start to 2026
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The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published Thursday by research group The Conference Board, fell by 0.2% in December to 97.6, after falling 0.3% in November and a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in October.
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U.S. Trade Deficit Surged in December
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Imports to the U.S. grew to a record high in 2025, leaving the trade deficit little changed despite steep Trump administration tariffs aimed at closing trade gaps.
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Philadelphia Area Manufacturing Activity Rises Again
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Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region climbed again in February, with future expectations for growth jumping, a monthly survey said.
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Beef Industry Has a Message for Consumers: Get Used to High Prices
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High prices are the new normal in the U.S. beef market. A tight cattle supply and continued robust demand are expected to keep costs elevated for consumers and others throughout the supply chain over the next few years.
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Key Developments Around the World
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Japan Inflation Cools, Giving BOJ More Room to Operate
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Japan’s consumer prices rose at a slower pace in the first month of 2026, giving the central bank more breathing room to consider its next step. Consumer inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, climbed 2.0% in January from a year earlier, compared with December’s 2.4% rise, government data showed Friday.
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RBNZ Won’t Be Trigger-Happy When It Comes to Rate Increases, Chief Economist Says
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Eurozone Business Activity Picks Up Faster Than Expected
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U.K. Government Had Record Budget Surplus in January
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The U.K. government’s traditional January budget surplus rose to a record high, a sign that the rise in its debt has started to slow as Treasury chief Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver a twice-yearly report on the public finances to lawmakers.
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Elizabeth Warren Has Questions About the Shake-Up Inside the Fed’s Banking Regulator
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Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg News
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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) and other Democrats are demanding that the Federal Reserve turn over information about changes inside its division of banking supervision, citing a Wall Street Journal report about internal tensions sparked by job cuts and sidelined examiners.
The Massachusetts Democrat asked the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman, for information about those changes, as well as plans to conduct a new report on the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank, according to letters viewed by the Journal.
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8:30 a.m.: Advance estimate GDP
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
9:45 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated discussion with Birmingham Business Journal editor-in-chief
10 a.m.: New Residential Sales
10 a.m.: Advance Quarterly Services
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
3:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem appears on Fox Business
7 p.m.: ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers acceptance speech for the Wolfgang Friedmann Memorial Award
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8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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