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Kevin Warsh Is Confirmed as Fed Chair in 54–45 Senate Vote

  • Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the Federal Reserve’s 17th chair Wednesday with a 54–45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977.
  • Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends Friday, plans to remain on the Fed’s board despite President Trump’s insistence he leave.
  • Warsh, a former Fed critic, faces hot inflation readings and questions about the Fed’s independence from the White House.

 

How Eight Tumultuous Years Pushed Jerome Powell and the Fed to the Limit

  • Jerome Powell weathered a sustained political assault on Fed independence and brought down inflation without a recession.
  • The Fed launched unprecedented emergency programs during the pandemic but later made its biggest mistake by deeming rising prices transitory.
  • The Fed raised rates at the fastest pace in four decades to fight inflation, leading to bank stress before achieving a soft landing.

Bank of Canada on Alert for Quick Change in Inflation Dynamics, Minutes Say

  • Bank of Canada officials agreed on the need to change course quickly on rate policy depending on Middle East developments and U.S. trade tensions.
  • The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, anticipating little change if the economy evolves as forecast.
  • Gov. Tiff Macklem said rate cuts might occur if President Trump imposes new trade restrictions on Canada.

Boston Fed’s Collins Flags Rate-Hike Scenario as Inflation Risks Tilt Higher

  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins flagged the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation pressures broaden in coming months.
  • Collins supported removing language at last month’s meeting suggesting the next rate move would be a cut, advocating for more agnostic communications.

Global Nature of Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risk, ECB’s Lane Says

  • ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated the global nature of rising energy prices, linked to the Middle East conflict, may cause slower eurozone growth and higher inflation.
  • ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted the global shock means costs rise worldwide, creating a compounding effect on final goods prices in Europe.
  • The energy price rise could trigger higher wage demands and second-round effects, potentially requiring the ECB to raise its key interest rate.

Wholesale Inflation Shot Higher in April

  • Wholesale inflation rose 1.4% in April, reaching a 6% annual rate, the highest since December 2022, due to the Iran conflict.
  • Wholesale energy prices rose 7.8% in April, following hot consumer-inflation numbers and higher energy costs across the economy.
  • The producer-price index helps forecast the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation metric, which has been above its 2% target.

Longer Working Lives and Immigration Keep Eurozone Economy Growing, ECB Says

  • The European Central Bank said immigration is essential for the eurozone’s continued economic expansion amid an aging population.
  • Increased employment, partly from older Europeans working longer, accounted for half of eurozone growth since Q3 2023.
  • Migrants contributed 4.2 million workers to the eurozone labor force between 2021 and 2025, increasing their share to 10%.

U.K. Economy Accelerates to Outpace U.S. as War Headwinds Loom

  • The U.K. economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter, but its resilience faces severe tests from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
  • The International Monetary Fund in April cut its 2026 U.K. growth estimate to 0.8% from 1.3%, citing gas import reliance.
  • The Bank of England issued three economic scenarios, stressing future dependence on the energy-price shock from the war.

OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast As Hormuz Shock Pushes Output Lower

  • OPEC’s crude output fell last month as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Gulf producers to curb production, prompting a cut in its demand forecast.
  • The United Arab Emirates quit OPEC last month, raising questions about the cartel’s future and Saudi Arabia’s role as market stabilizer.
  • OPEC now forecasts global oil-demand growth of 1.17 million barrels a day this year, down from 1.38 million previously.

 

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