Good morning. Today, marketing leaders invest through uncertainty; signs, portents and guesses erupt around Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery; airlines try their hands (and brands) at banking; and Sydney Sweeney addresses “Great Jeans.”

Advertising spending will grow more than expected this year and next, according to a new forecast from WPP Media.

The new figure for global ad growth, not counting U.S. political ads, is 8.8% for this year, Megan Graham reports. That's up from a June prediction of 6%.

And 2026 now looks good for a 7.1% increase, revised upward from 6.1%.

The outlook reflects two big trends that have come into focus as the year progressed: less impact from tariffs than feared and more impact from AI.

Marketers’ success minimizing and/or delaying tariffs turmoil doesn’t mean 2026 is immune, of course, and it takes a rare kind of confidence to be sure where AI is headed in any given time frame.

But the new forecast at least suggests that such uncertainty—much discussed and much feared all year—won’t chill marketing all on its own.

Speaking of “these uncertain times”: Global retail media for the first time will top TV advertising in 2025, WPP Media said, which tells me that CMOs worldwide are putting a premium on data-driven marketing and the ability to attribute results.

President Trump said Netflix’s $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. “could be a problem” because it would result in a large market share for the streaming giant, just one of many takes on the prospect that have flooded the market since Friday.

“They have a very big market share,” Trump said Sunday before the Kennedy Center Honors, Alex Leary and Joe Flint write. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.” 

“I’ll be involved in that decision,” he added.

Trump praised Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos and said that they met last week in the Oval Office. “But it is a big market share, there’s no question about it,” he said.

Not so fast! Paramount Skydance on Monday morning launched a hostile bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery instead of letting Netflix carve out Warner Bros. The cash offer is the same one that Warner previously rejected, but Paramount is arguing that it’s a surer thing to close. [CNBC] 

More takes: Sarandos told Trump that Netflix faced wide competition for viewers, not only from streaming services. [Bloomberg Law] 

Netflix has been losing share of U.S. viewing time to YouTube. [WSJ] 

But Netflix isn’t even counting on the deal to get approved by regulators, according to the anti-monopolist Matt Stoller, who argued that the main goal is “freezing” a major competitor “for a year and a half.” Anything else is a bonus. [Ankler on TikTok] 

If Netflix does succeed in buying Warner Bros., it will land a new trove of intellectual property that could help it train an AI model or fuel AI creations by its subscribers. [THR]

Analyst Craig Huber downgraded Netflix to “sell” from “buy,” calling the deal a “very risky” strategy shift. [TipRanks]

Airline and hotel marketers are about to find out how well their brands can extend into banking.

Southwest, United and Wyndham this year introduced debit cards that reward spending, a product that big banks now avoid because regulators capped the transaction fees they can charge, Imani Moise reports.

The interlopers got around those limits by teaming up with small banks that can charge higher fees, making the economics work again.

Transaction fees don’t actually cover all the perks travel brands offer, but the companies say they’re happy to make up the difference because branded cardholders tend to be more loyal and more profitable.

The bigger question, according to payments researcher James Wester:

How many travelers will be willing to treat an airline- or hotel-branded account as a primary checking vehicle and route their paychecks there? 

Sydney Sweeney says it’s her turn.

The actress stayed quiet last summer while some people said her “Great Jeans” ad campaign for American Eagle nodded to eugenics and others disagreed.

The retailer said at the time that the push “is and always was about the jeans,” and its CEO told The Wall Street Journal in September that he and his team never would have done the campaign if they thought it would offend people that way.

Now Sweeney tells People magazine that she was misrepresented by critics.

“I don’t support the views some people chose to connect to the campaign,” she said. “Many have assigned motives and labels to me that just aren’t true.”

Why this moment?

“I’m against hate and divisiveness,” Sweeney said: 

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Inside Sephora’s strategy to dominate beauty, including new stores that look a lot like the old ones. [WSJ] 

Luggage brand Béis upset consumers by sending a fake “Action Required: Fraud Alert” email that was really just advertising a sale. [Ad Age] 

American households are nearing the end of the year feeling a lot more dour about the economy than they did at the beginning, even as they keep spending. [WSJ] 

The CEO of Unilever’s ice-cream spinoff Magnum, which began trading today, says Ben & Jerry’s founders “at a certain moment….need to hand over to a new generation.” [FT] 

Vanity Fair and Olivia Nuzzi will part ways following new revelations and allegations about an affair with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and her behavior while reporting on him. [WSJ]

Hong Kong summoned foreign media organizations including The Wall Street Journal to criticize coverage of the deadly fire in the city last month and warn against reporting that would undermine authorities. [WSJ] 

Fubo cut its prices for subscribers as its carriage dispute with NBCUniversal continues. [CNET]

Chick-fil-A will convert its licensed restaurants to owned-and-operated in a bid for consistency in the customer experience. [Restaurant Business]

The dill-flavored fry seasoning in McDonald’s holiday Grinch meal is the latest step in pickles’ arrival as a food flavor. [BI]