|
|
|
|
|
Fed Chair Powell to Make First Comments Since Rate Cut
|
|
|
|
|
|
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks on the U.S. economy Tuesday at an event hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, just one week after the central bank approved its first interest-rate cut of 2025. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran said Monday that steep rate cuts are needed, but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem signaled caution over supporting further easing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is looking at options to provide Argentina a financial lifeline as the country struggles to overhaul its economy. And Sweden's central bank on Tuesday made a quarter-point rate cut, citing the need for further support to economic activity and to stabilize inflation at the target in the medium term.
|
|
|
Fed’s Bostic Sees Little Reason to Cut Rates Further for Now
|
|
|
|
Photo: Andi Rice/Bloomberg News
|
|
|
|
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation concerns would make him hesitant for now to declare support for cutting rates again in October, even though economic risks have shifted in recent months toward greater worries about employment.
Bostic said in an interview that he penciled in only one rate cut for all of 2025 at the Federal Reserve’s meeting last week. Because officials cut rates last week, that suggests Bostic doesn’t currently anticipate the need for another reduction at either of the two meetings remaining this year.
“I am concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time,” Bostic said. “And so I today would not be moving or in favor of it, but we’ll see what happens.” The Fed’s next meeting is Oct. 28-29.
|
|
St. Louis Fed's Musalem Cautious About Further Rate Cuts
|
|
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem voiced skepticism of further interest-rate cuts, pushing back on broad expectations in financial markets that the Fed will continue to ease borrowing costs this year. Speaking in Washington, D.C. at The Brookings Institution, a think tank, Musalem said that he supported last week's quarter-point rate cut because he believes risks to the labor market have increased. But with inflation nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed's 2% target, further cuts could mean excessive complacency about rising prices, Musalem said. "If the public begins to doubt that inflation will converge to 2%, the job of restoring price stability would be more difficult and potentially costly for the economy," Musalem said, according to a published text of his remarks. (Dow Jones Newswires)
|
|
Fed’s Miran Argues Steep Rate Cuts Are Needed
|
|
In his first speech as a member of the central bank, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran argued that significant interest-rate cuts are needed to avoid unnecessary damage to the labor market, backing demands from President Trump that the Fed pull rates sharply lower.
|
|
|
|
U.S. Treasury Chief Hints at Argentina Financial Rescue
|
|
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a series of posts on X, laid out the options administration officials are reviewing to backstop Argentina if the country under President Javier Milei’s leadership can’t overcome its financial woes.
|
|
|
Riksbank Cuts Key Rate and Signals Further Easing Is Unlikely
|
|
Sweden’s central bank cut its key policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.75% on Tuesday and suggested the move could mark the final monetary easing of the current cycle.
|
|
|
|
Lower Rates Are Set to Juice the Commercial-Property Market
|
|
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week is unlikely to help many Americans soon buy a home. But for the businesses involved in buying, selling and financing offices, apartment buildings and malls, the benefits could show up much more quickly.
|
|
|
Tariffs Will Hit Slowing U.S. Economy Hard in 2026, OECD Says
|
|
The U.S. and global economies are set to slow less sharply this year than previously expected, but will continue to lose momentum in 2026 as higher tariffs take an increasingly large toll on activity, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.
|
|
|
Chicago Fed's NAI Increased in August, Stayed Negative
|
|
A monthly index estimating U.S. economic growth from the Chicago Fed improved in August but remained negative, indicating that economic growth remained below trend. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to minus 0.12 in August, from minus 0.28 in July. The index's three-month moving average improved to minus 0.18, from minus 0.20 a month earlier. (Dow Jones Newswires)
|
|
Who Uses H-1B Visas the Most, in Charts
|
|
|
The worker visas that President Trump says now require $100,000 application fees fill a tiny portion of the U.S. workforce but include high-value jobs concentrated among some of the biggest technology companies in some of the wealthiest coastal states.
|
|
|
Can Lower Fed Rates Help Fix the Government’s Debt Problem?
|
Since the U.S. government spends about $1 trillion annually on interest for its debt, a lower interest rate should reduce those costs… right? WSJ tax policy reporter Richard Rubin discusses why the answer is more complex than it may initially seem.
|
|
|
|
|
|
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
10 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in Macro Musings podcast
|
|
|
10 a.m.: New Residential Sales
4:15 p.m.: FRB San Francisco President Mary Daly speech on the U.S. economic outlook
7 p.m.: G77 Annual Meeting of Foreign Ministers
7 p.m.: ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
|
|
|
Fed Can't Hand Out Cuts Like Candy at a Party
|
|
The U.S. two-year yield has rebounded past 3.60% even after Trump-linked economist Stephen Miran argued that the neutral rate is much lower than current levels and that he would cut rates by 150 basis points very quickly to get there. It's the kind of comments that are so far-stretched they can't be taken seriously enough to shift market expectations, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Proof? The two-year yields have moved higher, she adds. That's a sign that lowering rates wouldn't necessarily bring down long-term borrowing costs if the size and the speed of easing aren't warranted, she says. The reality is that the Fed can't hand out rate cuts like candy at a party, she says. — James Glynn
|
|
Housing Supply Drops in August Due to Sluggish Demand
|
|
Active listings of homes for sale fell 1.4% month-over-month in August, the largest seasonally-adjusted decline since June 2023, according to Redfin. They rose 9.7% from a year earlier--the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2024. New listings also cooled, falling 1.1% month-over-month to the lowest seasonally-adjusted level since January 2024 and declining 2.6% year-over-year. Sellers have been pulling back because homebuyer demand is sluggish, with sales still far below pre-pandemic levels. Pending home sales and existing home sales were both little changed in August. Redfin expects existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024. — Chris Wack
|
|
|
-
The eurozone economy faces the threat of higher inflation rates and slower economic growth if supplies of rare earth minerals from China are disrupted, the European Central Bank said Tuesday.
-
Business activity in Europe expanded this month, but at a level that suggests the wider economy is growing only slowly. The composite purchasing managers’ index for the eurozone rose to 51.2 this month from 51.0 in August, reaching its highest level in 16 months.
-
Indonesia and the European Union have signed a long-awaited trade deal that comes as Asian countries reposition themselves in a landscape reshaped by U.S. tariffs.
-
France’s slide into political and fiscal dysfunction is generating a groundswell of support for a sweeping wealth tax that would represent a radical break from the pro-business agenda of President Macron.
-
Ukraine has found a new way to disrupt Russia’s economy, and it’s scrambling the global oil market. The biggest winners so far are refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum, which are profiting from wider profit margins on products like gasoline and diesel. Ukraine has been attacking Russian refineries with drones as the war drags on. (Barron's)
|
|
|
WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
|
|
|
|