Wall Street is bracing for a series of labor-market data releases this week, including the government’s benchmark reading for May job gains, as investors look through tariff-related headlines and into the true effects of President Donald Trump’s economic strategy, Barron's reports.

The labor market, surprisingly resilient since the start of the year, is likely to to remain one of the key factors supporting the economy’s performance over the coming months, while also guiding the Federal Reserve’s near-term interest rate policy. It could also act as the lens through which investors judge the impact of Trump’s trade and tariff policies.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will kick things off Tuesday with its reading of job openings and labor turnover for the month of April, also known as the JOLTS report. Economists expect the update, which is closely tracked by the Fed, to show unfilled positions fall to around 7.1 million, a level that would match readings just before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The payroll processing group ADP will follow on Wednesday with its National Employment report, which will detail hiring in the private sector in May. The headline reading is expected to show a modest uptick from April’s increase of 62,000 jobs, but analysts will also track the report’s data on wage gains for workers both remaining in their positions and gaining new employment.

Those figures, matched against an ongoing increase in continued claims for unemployment benefit claims, which suggest finding a new role is taking the longest in three years, will offer clues as to the pace of hiring from private sector companies into the summer months.

The U.S. “is never going to default,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CBS on Sunday, adding, “We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall.”

Bessent has said the government could reach the end of its borrowing authority by August if the debt limit isn’t raised.

• Switzerland Records Deflation for First Time in Four Years

• The global trade war being pursued by the Trump administration will ultimately smash demand and growth, more so than creating added inflation risks, said Sarah Hunter, chief economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. "We expect weaker demand to outweigh the inflationary impact of any supply chain disruptions. We will be monitoring global trade flows and inflation data closely in the coming months to assess whether this judgement is correct," Hunter told the Economic Society of Australia in Brisbane in a speech on Tuesday. (Dow Jones Newswires)

10 a.m.: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI
1 p.m.: Peter McColough Series on International Economics event with Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
3:30 p.m.: FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Fed Listens: Roundtable with El Paso community leaders event
4 p.m.: Domestic Auto Industry Sales

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
9:45 a.m.: US Services PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI
2 p.m.: U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
7 p.m.: Fed Listens event with FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
7 p.m.: U.S. doubles tariff on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%

Tariffs are likely to keep the Fed on hold, BNP Paribas' Viktor Hjort writes. He expects corporate spreads to widen. "The bigger risk for credit is clearly upside risks to inflation triggering higher rates," he says. One consequence of a hawkish Fed is a relatively high cost to refinance maturing debt, Hjort says. While higher long-end rates attract "the all-important yield-buyers," that tends to change when high inflation raises the prospect of a hawkish pivot by the Fed. He says that "a few bad inflation prints could quickly change things and make the yield-buyers pause." — Paulo Trevisani

• The world economy will lose pace this year, hamstrung by uncertainty stemming from a whipsawing U.S. trade policy, according to new forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
• Economists polled in May by the Bank of Mexico expect the central bank to cut its policy rate target to 7.5% by year-end, down from the 7.75% year-end level predicted in the April survey. The Bank of Mexico cut the rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% on May 15, and meeting minutes showed support for a similar cut in June. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• Annual inflation in Turkey continues to ease after the central bank lifted its key interest rate in response to recent political turmoil and market jitters.
• In its deepening face-off with the Trump administration, Beijing’s trade negotiator has given a preview of Xi Jinping’s chief objective for this trade war: It won’t be like last time.
• A private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity tumbled into contraction in May, touching the lowest level since September 2022 as tariffs continue to weigh despite a trade truce with the U.S.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.