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Supreme Court Balks at Trump’s Push to Control the Fed; PCE Eyed

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

A key inflation report due Thursday morning is expected to show price pressures holding steady, reinforcing why Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates. Supreme Court justices on Wednesday expressed deep unease about President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed board member Lisa Cook, and their comments during the nearly two-hour hearing signaled that the court will likely allow her to remain in the job. And Trump reversed course on imposing tariffs on several European countries after reaching a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland and the Arctic region with NATO's secretary-general. Elsewhere, Norway’s central bank on Thursday held its key rate as it assesses the impact of the cuts and awaits more economic data to guide its next move. Malaysia’s central bank also stayed the course as the economy remains stable and external risks persist, while Turkey's central bank reduced borrowing costs for a fifth meeting in a row as inflation cooled further in December.

 

Top News

Supreme Court Balks at Trump’s Push to Control the Fed

Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News

Supreme Court justices across the ideological spectrum expressed deep unease on Wednesday about President Trump’s attempt to fire a member of the Federal Reserve, with several stressing the importance of a central bank insulated from political pressure.

Their comments during nearly two hours of oral arguments signaled that the court will likely allow Fed board member Lisa Cook to remain in the job while her legal challenge to her dismissal proceeds in the lower courts.

Inflation Just Won’t Go Away. Why PCE Should Keep the Fed on Hold.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is forecast to show core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in November and 2.8% from a year earlier, according to FactSet estimates. Headline PCE is also expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year-over-year. The November PCE report, due at 10 a.m. ET, may confirm that progress toward price stability is continuing—just not quickly enough to move policy yet, keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode. (Barron's)

Norway’s Central Bank Still in No Rush to Lower Borrowing Costs

Norway’s central bank still expects to take a gradual approach to monetary policy easing as it held its key rate at 4% for the third straight meeting. The decision was in line with a Wall Street Journal poll.

Turkish Central Bank Slows Pace of Rate Cuts as Food Inflation Rises

Turkey's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 37% from 38.0% on Thursday, its lowest rate since November 2023. It marked a slower pace of rate cut, after a 150 basis-point reduction in December.

Malaysia’s Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bank Negara Malaysia on Thursday maintained its overnight policy rate at 2.75%, marking a third consecutive hold after delivering a 25-basis-point cut last July. It was expected by all 10 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

 

U.S. Economy

What Trump Said About the U.S. Economy at Davos

President Trump hit on a range of economic issues during his address to the World Economic Forum on Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland.

Trump said his trade and tariffs policy had led to a boom in factory construction and trade deals with a number of countries that would benefit the U.S. Numbers from the St. Louis Fed show that overall factory spending fell for the first eight months of 2025 from a peak in 2024. The U.S. has lost manufacturing jobs every month since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. Here are some more highlights.

Trump Calls Off Tariffs on Europe Over Greenland

President Trump said he won’t impose tariffs on several European nations after he reached the “framework of a future deal” on Greenland and the Arctic region with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

  • Inside Trump’s Head-Spinning Greenland U-Turn

Trump Outlines Housing Policy Plans at Davos

President Trump in his Davos speech Wednesday reiterated two ideas to address housing affordability that his administration has rolled out in recent weeks.

Americans Who Are Going a Whole Month Without Buying Anything

Fueled by social media, some consumers are starting the new year with “No Buy January.” It is a challenge to eliminate purchases of anything nonessential—like clothes, skin-care products and electronics—for the 31 days of January.

The Uproar Over Affordability Is Coming for Insurers

Insurance companies that cover homes and cars are reaping the rewards of the inflation-busting price increases that have squeezed household budgets nationwide.

 

Key Developments Around the World

In Greenland, Anxiety Over U.S. Ambitions Puts Normal Life on Pause

President Trump's assurances did little to calm nerves in Greenland, where people have found themselves at the center of a geopolitical struggle in the era of Trumpian power politics.

U.K. Government Borrowing Falls For Third Straight Month

The U.K. government borrowed less in December than a year earlier, a third straight month of decline that indicates it has started to contain a rise in debts following a series of tax increases.

Australia’s Jobless Rate Falls in December

Australia’s unemployment rate fell in December on the back of hefty employment growth, underscoring the strength of the economy’s upswing in late 2025 and stoking the case for a rise in interest rates as early as next month.

Japan’s Exports Keep Growing But Weak Spots Show Risks Remain

Japan’s exports rose again in December in a further sign of corporate sector resilience, but a drop in goods shipped to the U.S. serves as a reminder of continued tariff and geopolitical risks.

South Korea Economy Weakened in 2025 as Tariffs Took a Toll

South Korea’s economy contracted quarter-over-quarter in the final three months of 2025, bruised by a year of tariffs and political turmoil that slowed annual growth to a five-year low.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: GDP
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Friday

4 a.m.: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting decision
8:30 a.m.: GDP by State
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

Research

Trump Says He's Down To 'Maybe One' for Fed Chair in His Mind

In discussing the imminent decision of the next Fed Chair, President Trump says he is close to a pick in a CNBC interview. "I'd say we're down to three, but we're down to two," Trump says. "I probably can tell you we're down to maybe one in my mind," he added. Among those in contention are National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Fed governor Christopher Waller and Blackrock executive Rick Rieder. Trump says he would want a new Fed Chair to lead like former chair Alan Greenspan did in the 1990s, when the economy saw high productivity without a need to hike rates. — Jessica Coacci

RBA's Bullock Can Focus Exclusively on Inflation Woes

News of a surprise fall in Australia's unemployment rate in December almost certainly triggered a cry of delight from the office of Michele Bullock, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. While she's a determined inflation hawk, a rise in the jobless rate this year would have been truly upsetting for Bullock. So the fall in the jobless rate to 4.1% will allow the RBA now to focus exclusively on 4Q CPI data at the end of the month, with any hint of problems in the area of trimmed mean inflation set to lock in a hike in February. The RBA wants to get back on top of inflation risks. — James Glynn

 

Basis Points

  • For the first time since the start of the private-credit boom, large numbers of individual investors are trying to get their money out.
  • European Union lawmakers voted to assess the legality of the EU’s landmark trade agreement with South American countries signed on Saturday.
  • Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD is leading a pack of Chinese automakers whose global export onslaught has surpassed even bullish expectations.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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