Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 31, August/2020, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you this week’s update on the latest happenings and developments in politics, law, governance, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

We wish you an enjoyable read.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Upcoming Online Events

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Hong Kong government postpones election, bans opposition candidates

(dql) Hong Kong’s already tense political atmosphere further escalated following several steps taken by the city’s government over the course of last week.

In a first, highly controversial move, Hong Kong’s government decided to postpone the Legislative Council (LegCo) election, initially planned for 6 September, for one year citing public health concerns in the face of resurging numbers of Covid-19 cases in the city. The government also referred its decision to the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress, China’s top legislative body, to resolve the vacuum created by the expiring term of the current LegCo. [New York Times]

The election postponement triggered concerns and anger among legal scholars and the opposition camp. While the city’s Bar Association expressed doubts about the legality of the one-year-delay of the election, opposition politicians condemned the move as an attempt of the government and the ruling parties to escape defeat in the election in which the opposition camp is hoping to win for the first the majority in the LegCo based on its landslide victory in the district council last November and on the ongoing wave of anti-government sentiment in the city. [Deutsche Welle] [South China Morning Post]

In a second major blow to the opposition camp, returning officers have barred 12 of its candidates from standing for the legislative election, citing results of an eligibility testing that suggested that the disqualified had pushed for the independence of the former British Colony, sought foreign governments’ intervention or rejected the new national security law. While Beijing expressed its full support for the decision, banned candidates saw their disqualification as outcome of  “the relentless oppression that this regime is starting,” and accused Beijing a “total disregard for the will of Hongkongers” and of  “trampl[ing] upon “the city’s last pillar of vanishing autonomy.” [BBC 1] [The Guardian]

The ban comes a month after Beijing’s imposition of the National Security Law for Hong Kong and signal’s the determination of Beijing to further tighten its grip on Hong Kong.

Reinforcing this trend, the Council of the University of Hong Kong last week fired law professor and pro-democracy activist Benny Tai on grounds of a criminal conviction over his role in the 2014 pro-democracy protests. Tai was among the leading figures the 2014 "umbrella protests" that bought Hong Kong's business districts to a standstill for over two months as Hongkongers took to the streets to call for democracy. Tai called the Council’s decision, which reverses a prior decision of the University’s Senate in favor of Tai’s further employment, the “end of academic freedom in Hong Kong” and pointed to external pressure for his dismissal saying that the decision was “made not by the University of Hong Kong but by an authority beyond the University through its agents." [BBC 2] [Aljazeera]

In a related development earlier last week, former members of the now disbanded Hong Kong pro-independence group Studentlocalism were arrested over social media posts calling for the establishment of a Republic of Hong Kong and a union of all pro-independence political groups.

Studentlocalism disbanded on June 30, shortly before Beijing on the same day imposed the new national security law which criminalizes subversion, secession, terrorism and collusion with foreign powers. Their case is the first one under this legislation. [Hong Kong Free Press]

China: Major corruption case

(dql) In one of the country’s biggest corruption case, the former party chief of Shaanxi province was given a suspended capital punishment after he was found guilty of accepting bribes of more than 100 million USD in return for his approval of construction projects, business operations and appointments to government jobs. [South China Morning Post]

In a second case, the former chairman of the China Development Bank pleaded guilty to illegally receiving over 12 million USD for using his position to help obtain and increase bank credit lines, establish an auto finance company, and support job promotions. [Asia Times]

The cases are the latest in President Xi Jinping’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign in which over one million officials have been punished, with critics arguing that the campaign is also used to purge political contenders of the President. [RTL]

South Korea’s government criticized for campaign against North-Korea human rights NGOs

(dql) Human Rights Watch has criticized the South Korean government for what the human rights organization calls a “campaign” to intimidate non-government organizations working for improvements of the human rights situation in North Korea.

HRW’s criticism refers to a recent order of the country’s Unification Ministry demanding that those NGOs comply with abrupt review deadlines, provide burdensome documentation of their work and face possible office inspections. [Human Rights Watch]

The move is unprecedented and comes against the background of the sending of leaflets via balloons in May from South Korea to North Korea by activist groups criticizing North Korea’s nuclear threats against South Korea. Pyongyang, angered about these actions, pressed Seoul to take action against those groups, reinforcing its demand by blowing up the joint liaison office. Eventually, the registration of  those groups were revoked for “seriously hindering the unification policy of the government.” Furthermore, Seoul announced to revise laws to prohibit sending leaflets to the North. [AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2] [AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]

Japan: Ruling party urges to restrict TikTok

(mp) Japanese lawmakers urged the government to propose restrictions of Chinese-developed smartphone applications such as TikTok in order to guarantee tighter protection of confidential information. This step is recognized as a measure to ensure further security collaboration with the US, which had brought up similar proposals. TikTok, having over 10 million users in Japan, has been under fire due to concerns over the collection of user data for the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party, respectively. TikTok stressed that they have never received such a data request from Beijing and would also not follow one. India previously had announced a ban on dozens of Chinese-developed apps.

In a related development, the Japanese ruling party announced plans to build up a security clearance program to protect information and vulnerable technology from foreign influence. Critics, however, warned Tokyo against distancing from China, which is Japan’s largest trade partner. [Nikkei Asian Review] [Reuters]

Taiwan: Former President Lee Teng-hui dies

(ef) Last week, former President Lee Teng-hui died aged 97. He was the first Taiwanese President elected by the popular vote and held the office from 1988 to 2000. Under his presidency decades of martial law rule ended and the groundwork for the Taiwan’s transformation from dictatorship to a full-fledged multi-party democracy was laid. Furthermore, he introduced the concept of “New Taiwanese” – meaning all islanders, no matter whether mainland born Chinese or native Taiwanese – in an attempt to forge a common sense of identity that could support the democratic political system.

Lee, who joined the Kuomintang (KMT) in 1971 and served as its chairman from 1988-2000, was mayor of Taipei and governor of Taiwan Province before becoming Vice-President in 1984.  [New York Times] [Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan: National Human Rights Commission established

(ef) On past Saturday, Taiwan’s National Human Rights Commission was established, tasked with reviewing complaints of abuses and discrimination, drafting and proposing a national human rights report and providing advice to government agencies on related policymaking. The setup of the Commission aims to bring national laws in line with global standards and promote human rights in Taiwan. In particular, the Paris Principles – key evaluation criteria for national human rights institutions adopted by the UN Human Rights Commission and the UN General Assembly – are supposed to be met and monitored. [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Construction of Hindu temple on disputed land in Ayodhya begins

(ls) Nine months after India’s Supreme Court decided that disputed land in the city of Ayodhya belonged to Hindu groups – and not to Muslims – the construction of a Hindu temple on the site is to begin this week. Back in November 2019, the Supreme Court also ordered authorities to provide land elsewhere for a new mosque. [AiR, No. 46, November/2019, 2] 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to attend the groundbreaking ceremony. His Bharatiya Janata Party has long advocated for a temple to be built on the spot where a Hindu mob, watched by some BJP leaders, demolished a more than 400-year-old mosque in 1992 sparking riots that left almost 2,000 dead. Hindu consider the site as the birthplace of their deity Rama. The BJP’s campaign for the temple reflects the current Indian government’s promotion of Hindu cultural nationalism, often limiting or even disregarding minority rights. [The Guardian] [Straits Times]

India: Restrictions limiting environmental and human rights activism

(ls) Indian authorities have blocked the website of Fridays for Future (FFF) India, the Indian branch of the student-led climate action movement. In addition, the Delhi police initially charged the group under an anti-terrorism law, before later shifting to charges under the Information Technology Act. The development followed a complaint by the Indian environment minister that he was getting too many e-mails from FFF about a controversial draft Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) notification the government was seeking public responses for. Two other environment collectives also found their websites blocked. [Straits Times]

In a separate development, the United Nations have joined international calls, along with Human Rights Watch and other NGOs, demanding the release of prominent rights activists, who were arrested two years ago under the terrorism law. The activists have been arrested for allegedly instigating violence in a protest in Maharaja state. Most of the eleven accused have yet to be criminally charged. While human rights activists have accused India’s ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) being behind the case, the BJP denies any political involvement. [Aljazeera]

Pakistan: American accused of blasphemy killed in court

(lf/ls) A U.S. national accused of blasphemy was shot dead in a courtroom in Peshawar, Pakistan. A member of the public walked into the courtroom and opened fire in front of the judge. The U.S. man allegedly had called himself a prophet and was arrested two years ago. He was charged under sections 153-A (promoting enmity between different groups), 295-A (acts intended to outrage religious feelings of any class) and 298 (uttering words to wound religious feelings) of Pakistan’s penal code. While blasphemy can be punished with death, so far, the state has not executed anyone for the crime. However, accusations often lead to deadly attacks. [CNN] [Dawn]

The victim was born into the Ahmadi sect. According to human rights groups, minority groups are disproportionately affected by the blasphemy law. Furthermore, over a dozen people accused of blasphemy have been killed by violent mobs. [BBC]

Sri Lanka: General elections on 5 August

(ls) Sri Lanka is holding general elections this Wednesday, 5 August. Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, the party of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, aims to win the majority of the seats and subsequently install Rajapaksa’s elder brother and former president, current caretaker Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, formally as Prime Minister. The latter has been in office without a parliamentary majority for several months. A two-thirds majority, that would allow constitutional changes to give the president extended powers, appears to be an ambitious but not impossible goal. 

Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese majority population is largely supporting the Rajapaksas who had ended the country’s 26-year civil war with the Tamil minority. The opposition is largely formed by the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which, however, have been entangled in political feuds to settle old scores rather than mounting a credible challenge against the Rajapaksas. The elections are also ending the uncertainty since early March, when the President dissolved the parliament five months ahead of schedule for an early election that was first scheduled for April and which has since been delayed twice. [Reuters] [Nikkei Asian Review]

Sri Lanka: NGOs decry human rights violations

(cm) Last Wednesday, eleven human rights organizations published a statement demanding an end to the intimidation and targeted detention of human rights defenders, journalists, activists and lawyers. A recent case in point has been a Muslim lawyer who spoke out against the ban of burials during Covid-19. He was later sent to a detention center. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the International Commission of Jurists and other NGOs demanded to end “all forms of harassment, threats, and abuse of legal processes and police powers against lawyers, human rights defenders and journalists”. [Human Rights Watch] [Tamil Guardian]

Nepal’s Army aims for increased business opportunities

(ls) Nepal’s Army has submitted a draft bill to the government for a revision of the Nepal Army Act, seeking legal clearance to invest money from its welfare fund in business activities. Current provisions bar the Army from investing in business enterprises, companies and infrastructure projects like hydropower. The move is controversial in Nepal as the Army has been becoming increasingly involved in contracts for various projects which otherwise are taken care of by civilian entities. Critics say that this leads to the armed forces losing their primary focus on providing security for the country. [Kathmandu Post]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodian public order bill would curtail liberty to dress freely

(jn) A proposed law in Cambodia would give the police the authority to fine people for dressing inappropriately raising concerns about undue infringement of personal liberties, especially of women, and about reinforcing a culture of impunity around sexual violence. It would prohibit men from being in public shirtless, and women from wearing anything "too short" or "too see-through". The bill still requires the approval of several government departments and parliament before going into effect next year. While the government sponsoring the legislation justifies it with the need to preserve national traditions, human rights groups decry it as another sign of widespread sexism in the country where the bill would put women further at risk of sexual harassment and violence by fostering a culture of victim-blaming. [Straits Times]

Malaysia: The aftermath of former Prime Minister Najib’s verdict

(cm) After being found guilty of all seven charges from the 1MDB scandal, Najib Razak, the former Prime Minister (PM) of Malaysia, is facing a fine of 210 million ringgit and a 12-year jail term. Mr. Najib was found guilty last week for “the misappropriation of RM42 millions of SRC International Sdn Bhd’s funds, a former subsidiary of 1MDB.” This brings much significance as this is the first time a PM of Malaysia is given a criminal sentence. Still, Mr. Najib is hopeful that an appeal to bail will leverage his current sentences. However, he will soon be undergoing two out of four trials which have 35 charges in total. [AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4] [South China Morning Post 1]

Additionally. Low Taek Jho, the financial business man that Mr. Najib claimed had orchestrated the money transfer, is said to be hiding in Macau. The Malaysian authorities have not managed to take the fugitive as China denies any form of sheltering. [South China Morning Post 2]

Malaysia: Federal and Sabah state government stumble

(cm/lm) On Thursday, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) announced their withdrawal from the ruling Perikatan Nasional coalition under current PM Muhyiddin Yassin – just two days after its former leader and Premier Minister Najib Razak had been found guilty [see above]. UMNO is the biggest party in Malaysia’s ruling coalition, which only holds a two-seat parliamentary majority. Although UMNO lawmakers said they would continue to support the government in parliament, the party reportedly plans to partner with Malaysian’s Islamic Party (PAS). This political move thus not only undermines Mr. Muhyiddin’s administration, but his general support. [Malay Mail] [Reuters] [News Straits Times]

Separately, Mr. Muhyiddin faces another test to his premiership, as the State Assembly in Malaysia’s Sabah state on Thursday dissolved with the aim to form a new government within the next 60 days. Earlier last week, the former Chief Minister of Sabah had claimed that the ruling state government had lost its majority in the state assembly, as 33 of the 65 state lawmakers had taken his side to support the Perikatan Nasional federal government. Prior to the announcement, the Parti Warisan Sabah coalition, backed by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition bloc, controlled 45 of the 65 seats. The hitherto-Chief Minister Shafie Apdal is a staunch ally of former Premier Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

Singapore: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong outlines Rules of Prudence

(cm) With the general elections and the ensuing cabinet reshuffling having ended, the Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong moved forward on Saturday, sending out the Rules of Prudence to People's Action Party (PAP) lawmakers. The letter, which is traditionally sent out by the PM to PAP members of parliament after every general election, conveys the regulations of PAP lawmakers, such as general standards and social media behavior.

In his letter, the Prime Minister told the lawmakers to expect “sharper questioning and debate in Parliament”, as the number of opposition MPs has increased and a Leader of the Opposition has been formally designated. Resulting from the general election, two non-constituency MPs from the Progressing Singapore Party, and 10 elected MPs from the Workers’ Party now hold a seat in parliament.

This could potentially bring further space for democracy in Singapore. The Prime Minister has emphasized all MPs to voice their concerns during the upcoming “opening of Parliament in August 2020” for the President’s Address and Budget Debate. [Channel News Asia] [AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]

Sri Lanka: Human rights organizations call on government

(cm) Last Wednesday, a statement was published by eleven human rights organizations that demanded the termination of intimidation of human rights defenders, journalists, activists, lawyers, and targeted detention. In their joint announcement, the rights activists cite the case of a Muslim lawyer, who had been sent to a detention center for criticizing the ban of burials during COVID-19. The organizations, including Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the International Commission of Jurists among others, demanded to end “all forms of harassment, threats, and abuse of legal processes and police powers against lawyers, human rights defenders and journalists”. However, the current President of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksas, has yet to issue a response, as his priorities may be with Sri Lanka’s elections that will commence this Wednesday. [Reuters] [Human Rights Watch] [Tamil Guardian 1] [Tamil Guardian 2]

Major twist in “Boss” case, as independent panel recommends re-instatement of charges

(lm/py) Last week, Asia in Review reported on the public anger stirred by the Public Prosecutor Office`s decision to drop criminal charges against Vorayuth "Boss" Yoovidhya, the heir to the Red Bull energy drink fortune, who was accused of a 2012 hit-and-run killing of a police officer while driving a sports car. While the statute of limitations on two charges related to the accident had already expired, the third, and most serious charge - reckless driving causing death - would have remained on the books until 2027, if the case had not been closed [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4].

On Tuesday, a seven-member panel chaired by Deputy Attorney-General Somsak Tiyawanich recommended to press new charges against Mr. Vorayuth, saying that new evidence had emerged that would justify putting Mr. Vorayuth on trial. The panel had been set up by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) on July 26, three days after the decision of prosecutors to drop the final charge was first reported on CNN.

Specifically, the panel suggested to press charges of cocaine abuse, which the police had not included in their past reports (see further below). Moreover, the statute of limitations on the charge will not expire for another seven years. Mr. Somsak also said the prosecutor responsible for the case had made a “sound” decision”, when he decided to go against the arraignment, as the move was informed by the available evidence and eyewitness testimonies put forward by the police at the time. [Bangkok Post 1] [The Thaiger]

At the beginning of last week, news transpired that the decision to drop the third charge had been made after the police had come forward with two new witnesses. In the light of the witnesses` accounts, prosecutors at the Office of Criminal Litigation in Southern Bangkok decided not to press the remaining charge against Mr. Vorayuth and forwarded the case to the police for consideration. After the news became known to the public, the police announced it would launch an internal investigation into the Assistant Police Chief`s decision not to contest the prosecutor over the case, adding that the old case against Mr. Vorayuth had officially been closed and could only be relaunched if relatives of the victim filed the case directly to a court, or if there were new witnesses or evidence. [Khaosod English 1] [Chiang Mai One]

Responding to growing public furor over the case, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday set up an independent panel to examine the dropping of criminal charges against Mr. Vorayuth. The nine-member panel is chaired by Vicha Mahakhun, dean of the Faculty of Law at Rangsit University and formerly spokesman and commissioner at the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). The panel was given a 30-day respite to seek information from relevant officials, and to listen to opinions, recommendations and complaints from the public. While it is not allowed to intervene in the authority of officials responsible for the hit-and-run case, on Monday, though, Prime Minister Prayut said that he instructed the panel to see whether the case can be revived, despite being officially closed. [Bangkok Post 2] [Bangkok Post 3] [South China Morning Post 1]

Emerging from a meeting on Monday, panel chairman Mr. Vicha said that Four panels had been set up to scrutinize various aspects of the hit-and-run case, including how it was handled by the police and prosecutors. The panel reviewing the prosecutors' performance is being headed by Borwornsak Uwanno, former secretary general of the King Prajadhipok Institute. Former attorney-general and current chairman of the Police Reform Committee, Khemchai Chutiwong will chair an investigation into the police. Justice permanent secretary Wisit Wisitsora has been appointed to head another panel tasked with examining witnesses and individuals in the case who are not police and prosecutors. The fourth panel is in charge of legal aspects and headed by Pakorn Nilprapun, secretary-general of the Council of State.

The Prime Minister, together with his Deputy Prawit Wongsuwan on Wednesday also addressed and outrightly rejected any speculation that the executive branch had conspired with prosecutors to drop charges against Mr. Vorayuth. Earlier last week, media reports had emerged, linking Mr. Prawit`s brother Admiral Sitthawat Wongsuwan, with the prosecutors` decision to drop the last remaining charge against Mr. Vorayuth. A report published in April had also revealed that the Yoovidhya family had donated a sum of 300 million baht to the government and the police. The donation was allegedly made after Prime Minister Prayut called on top-earning tycoons in April to help mitigate the economic knock-on effects of the coronavirus pandemic. [Prachachat (in Thai)] [Amarin TV (in Thai)]

On Thursday, then, one of the key witnesses was killed in a motorbike accident in the northern city of Chiang Mai, causing public suspicion about the exact cause of his death. Although the results of an initial autopsy were still pending, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Saturday ordered a second autopsy, saying that the “case will not be unresolved in the public’s mind.” On Sunday then, it was reported that the results of the second autopsy were consistent with the first, and that the victim had died of injuries caused by the accident. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post 2] [Bangkok Post 4]

The same day, police officers, who handled the case, were invited to appear in front of the House Committee on Police Affairs for questioning regarding the hit-and-run case. When being asked by the Committee as to why no charge related to illicit drug use had been pressed against Mr. Vorayuth, despite a positive blood test proving the use of cocaine, the officers said that the illicit chemical substances found in Mr. Vorayuth`s blood had been used in a dental treatment.

The police, however, did not disclose the identity of the dentist, and had no medical documents to prove that residue of cocaine found in Mr Vorayuth's body were indeed resulting from dental treatment. A dentist guild disputed the claim on the following day, saying Mr. Vorayuth had received dental treatment five days before the crash and was given pills, which contain no cocaine. Responding to the news, police said that the explanation that cocaine was used for medical purposes is a “misunderstanding”, and announced that they would further investigate in two of the substances to determine if they warrant charges against Mr. Vorayuth. [Bangkok Post 5] [Khaosod English 2]

Warawit Sukboon, secretary-general of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), said on Thursday that the Commission was ready to investigate the prosecutors who dropped all charges against Mr. Vorayuth. The announcement came after law students had lodged a petition with the NACC, asking the Commission to look into whether prosecutors who acquitted Mr. Vorayuth exercised their power in line with the law.

Leading conservative activist and secretary-general of the Association for the Protection of the Constitution, Srisuwan Janya, also found himself in opposition to the prosecutors` decision, which he declared may constitute an act which favors one Thai citizen over another. On Monday, Mr. Srisuwan, who had been vocal in his opposition to what he termed illegal student protests [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3] filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), accusing the police and the prosecutors dereliction of duty. [Bangkok Post 6] 

Thailand: Prosecution drops contempt of court charge against Piyabutr Saengkanokkul

(lm) Contempt proceedings brought against Move Forward key figure Piyabutr Saengkanokkul have been dropped. According to Mr. Piyabutr’s lawyer, Thai police decided not to oppose the prosecutor's decision to not press the charges that had been filed against Mr. Piyabutr for criticizing the Constitutional Court`s decision to disband the Thai Raksa Chart Party ahead of the 2019 general election. Citing customary law, in March 2019 the Constitutional Court had ordered the dissolution of the Thai Raksa Chart Party for naming a member of the Royal Family as its prime ministerial candidate, and banned the party`s executive board members from politics for 10 years. In the wake of the decision, Mr. Piyabutr, at the time secretary-general of the now-banned Future Forward Party, in a video had criticized the Court's ruling. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in absentia sentenced to further prison term

(lm) Thailand`s Supreme Court on Thursday sentenced self-exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in absentia to another five years in jail over charges of malfeasance and conflict of interest. [Bangkok Post]

The Court`s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions found that Mr. Thaksin, while holding office between 2001 and 2006, had violated the Organic Act on Counter Corruption, which prohibits a government official from holding shares in a contractor of the state. In passing his shares in Shin Corp - the monopolist of broadcasting and mobile services in Thailand enjoying state concessions – to bogus associates, such as family and servants, Mr. Thaksin had retained ownership of the company.

The Court also ruled illegal that in his capacity as Prime Minister, Mr. Thaksin had ordered to cut the excise tax rate for mobile phone operators from 50 percent to 10 percent, and an equivalent tax deduction from concession fees for mobile providers, including AIS and Digital Phone Co, subsidiaries of Shin Corp.

The latest legal sentence is the third handed down in absentia for Mr. Thaksin: he was sentenced to two years over an insider real estate deal involving his wife in 2008 and to five years over abuse of power and corruption in 2019.

Thailand: Fresh demand for investigation into the acquittal of Panthongtae "Oak" Shinawatra

(lm) A former Democrat Party spokesperson on Wednesday asked the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) to seek ways to scrap the prosecution's decision not to challenge Panthongtae "Oak" Shinawatra's acquittal. The son of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Mr. Panthongtae in November last year was acquitted by the Central Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct of conspiring and colluding to launder money. [Bangkok Post]

Last month, former Democract lawmaker Watchara Phetthong had accused officials working at the Office of the Attorney General (AOG) of malfeasance in office and petitioned the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to investigate the case. Back then, Mr Watchara said the attorney-general, deputy attorney-general and public prosecutors had neglected their duties and violated Section 157 of the Criminal Code when they decided not to appeal the acquittal of Mr. Panthongtae. [AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]

Thailand: Prime Minister Prayut reportedly submits new cabinet list for royal endorsement

(lm/py) Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday reportedly submitted his list of new cabinet ministers for royal endorsement. Earlier this month, six ministers had resigned from their posts to pave the way for Mr. Prayut to reshuffle the cabinet. In the wake the resignations, the Prime Minister had first declined to comment on potential candidates for the posts, but said that some key posts in the economic team, particularly the finance portfolio, were part of a “central”, non-party ministerial quota, and as such did not belong to any coalition party. [Bangkok Post 1] [AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3] [Bangkok Post 2]

The list reportedly includes the names of the six people to be appointed for seven positions: Predee Daochai, who last Friday had resigned as co-president of Thailand`s Kasikornbank and chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, is expected to become Deputy Prime Minister and concurrently serve as Finance Minister. Two weeks ago, Premier Minister Prayut had confirmed that he had approached Mr. Predee and other “outside” economists to join the cabinet. [The Star] [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]

Former chief executive of energy conglomerate PTT Pailin Chuchottaworn is reportedly set to be Energy Minister, notwithstanding earlier reports that had suggested that the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) was planning to nominate hitherto-Industry Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit to hold the energy portfolio. [Bangkok Post 3]

The biggest party in the ruling coalition, the PPRP will reportedly be given charge of two portfolios. While the party`s secretary-general, Anucha Nakasai, will be the Prime Minister's new Office Minister, Suchart Chomklin, Chon Buri lawmaker and Deputy Leader of the PPRP is expected to become the new Labor Minister, with the government's current spokeswoman, Narumon Pinyosinwat, as his Deputy. Narumon Pinyosinwat on Monday announced her resignation as government spokesperson. Currently, the Labor Ministry has only the Labor Minister in charge, who works without a Deputy. [Bangkok Post 4]

Mr. Nakasai is a member of the Sam Mitr fraction (Three Brothers), which was instrumental in cobbling together the Palang Pracharat Party with veteran politicians from several parties, including Pheu Thai Party. Seen as an experienced politician, he was deprived of his election candidacy rights for 5 years, following the Constitutional Tribunal`s decision to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai Party in 2007. Mr. Suchart had been tipped to become Labor Minister in 2019, and was among the ten newly elected PPRP Party Deputy that were elected earlier this month. [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]

Citing the economic knock-on effects of the coronavirus pandemic, Justice Minister and Sam Mitr faction key figure Somsak Thepsutin on Sunday brushed off speculations that the post of Deputy Labour Minister would be opened to end the fight for cabinet quotas in the PPRP. Further commenting on some party key figures` failure to secure their desired cabinet posts, Mr. Somsak compared the politicians to a broken hearted: “They may be shocked, but in a few weeks' time they will recover”. [Bangkok Post 2]

An executive of the nationalist-royalist Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT), Anek Laothamatas, is designated to become the new Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation. Earlier this month, the ACT had announced that it would nominate Mr. Anek for the post of Labour Minister, replacing MR Chatu Mongol Sonakul, who shortly before the announcement had resigned both as leader and member of the party. [see AiR, No. 27, July/2020, 1]

Thailand: Pheu Thai favors former party member Chadchart Sittipunt for Bangkok governor

(lm) Pheu Thai Party leader Sompong Amornvivat on Thursday brushed off speculations the party would field chief strategist Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan as its gubernatorial candidate in the coming Bangkok election, saying that the party had instructed Mrs. Khunying to find a candidate for the governor race, as well as for other local body elections in the capital. [Bangkok Post]

At the top of the list of people to run as the party's candidate in the gubernatorial election is former party member Chadchart Sittipunt, who resigned from the party last year to run as an independent candidate. However, Mr. Chadchart reportedly already rejected Pheu Thai’s offer for him to run under the party`s auspices. [Khaosod English]

Mr. Chadchart joined the Thaksin Shinawatra-led government as adviser to the Transport Minister. In 2012, he then became Deputy Minister under the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, before he served the same Prime Minister as Transport Minister. In the run-up to the 2017 general elections, he was among the trio that the Pheu Thai Party would have liked to be Prime Minister.

In September 2017, he was among 70 people appointed by then-junta chairman Prayut Chan-o-cha to the National Strategy Committee, which was designated to draft several 20-year strategic plans which future governments would be legally bound to follow. However, citing schedule conflicts and family issues, Mr. Chadchart resigned within days. 

The Bangkok gubernatorial election is likely to be held in the last quarter of the year. The capital`s current governor, Aswin Kwanmuang, is one of the remaining vestiges of the military junta that ruled Thailand from 2014-2019, and appointed Mr. Aswin in 2016 to replace Sukhumbhand Paribatra, who was seen as ineffective.

Thailand: Criminal Court acquits political activist of inciting unrest charges

(lm) Thailand`s Criminal Court on Thursday acquitted political activist Sombat Boonngamanong of sedition and cybercrime charges for criticizing the then-ruling military junta in 2014. In its verdict, the Court said Mr. Sombat didn’t violate sedition laws as he was merely expressing his political opinions and no one protested as a result of his actions. [The Thaiger] [Bangkok Post]

Shortly after it had seized power in May 2014, the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) in June arrested Mr. Sombat and filed charges against him over his online campaign, which allegedly encouraged members of the public to join a rally against the coup-makers. As the messages had been posted at a time, when martial law was in effect and criticizing the government consequentially was illegal, Mr. Sombat, thus, was accused of having violated Section 116 of the Criminal Code and the Computer Crime Act. The charges were initially heard in a military court, following an order by Prime Minister Prayut, who back then was NCPO chief, the case last year was then transferred to the Criminal Court.

Thailand: Cross-party support for constitutional amendments

(lm) In a cross-party move, members of the House Committee on Constitutional Amendment resolved to change Section 256 of the constitution to pave the way for broader constitutional amendments. On Saturday, the committee`s chairman and adviser to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, added that the Committee also considered amendments suggested by various sectors of Thai society, including a provision on setting up a Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA), which would facilitate the drafting of an entirely new constitution. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2] [The Thaiger]

The House Committee on Constitutional Amendment is tasked with deciding how to best amend the 2017 constitution, which makes constitutional amendments very difficult. According to Section 256 of the constitution, at least one-third (84) of the 250 senators has to approve it in two of three readings - a tall order, given the Senate's voting records and the fact that it has vested interest in the amendments to the constitution: Two amendments sought by opposition lawmakers concern the election system, which they have criticized as "complicated" and "unfair", and the appointment of the Senate, which is seen as favoring the government, considering that the senators have been appointed by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO)).

Against this backdrop, former member of the now-defunct National Reform Steering Assembly (NRSA), Senator Seri Suwannapanont, on Monday said that the Senate would veto any constitutional amendment that would give a CDA “a blank cheque”. The same day, Thailand`s main opposition party, Pheu Thai Party, announced that it would file a motion centered around rectifying Section 256 the following day in parliament to pave the way for a CDA to be established. [Bangkok Post 3]

Last week, Progressive Movement co-founder Piyabutr Saengkanokkul had proposed that amendments to the constitution were necessary to mollify anti-government protesters. Specifically, Mr. Piyabutr, who is also a member of the House Committee on Constitutional Amendment, suggested the parliament should table three separate bills to amend two constitutional provisions: Section 279, which justifies and legitimizes all orders, announcements, and actions of the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), and Section 269, which permitted the NCPO to appoint 250 senators, known as the transitional Senate, to serve for five years. [Bangkok Post 4]

Pro-government supporters rally in Bangkok, House Committee appoints chair

(lm) Two weeks ago, Asia in Review reported on one of the largest street demonstrations in Thailand since the 2014 military coup, when around 2,500 protesters converged on Bangkok’s Democracy Monument to demand the dissolution of parliament, an end to harassment of government critics, and amendments to the constitution. [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3].

After the House of Representatives last week voted in favor of a panel tasked with hearing the student`s demands [AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4], the newly formed committee on Friday elected Bhumjaithai Party lawmaker Paradorn Prissananantakul its chairman. During the inaugural session, the panelists also determined a roadmap, as it only has 30-45 days before it will have to submit its conclusion to parliament – a time fence much shorter than the 90-day period the panel had been promised earlier. High on the agenda is an outreach attempt to anti-government protesters by members of the panel, starting this weekend in Sri Sa Ket province. In addition, the Committee is also set to invite the Royal Thai Police to report on cases of political protests and security measures. [Bangkok Post 1]

On Thursday, around a hundred people rallied in close proximity to the Democracy Monument to show their support for the royal institution. Leaders of the pro-government group, which calls itself “Archeewa Chuay Chart” (Vocational Students Helping the Nation) insisted the group was not politically motivated, nor was it backed by individuals to counter anti-government movements. On social media, however, this group is widely seen as having been created by groups associated with the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and Suthep Thaugsuban, a former secretary general of the Democrat Party, who became a protest leader against the Yingluck government in 2013/14. [Star Tribune]

Myanmar: Killing by soldiers triggers anti-military protests in Karen state

(jn) Two weeks of peaceful protests culminated last Tuesday when an estimated 5000 people of the Karen ethnic group marched in the streets of the capital of Karen state to demand justice for the murder of an unarmed Karen woman in mid-July at the hands of two soldiers in a failed robbery. They also called for the closure of the outpost where the two soldiers were stationed. The protesters also raised the fate of five other civilians that were killed by the military in Karen state this year.

As some sort of rare admission of guilt on part of the military, it said that the two soldiers suspected of the murder would be tried at a court-martial. At the same time, the military suggested that the protest might be instigated by rebel groups like the Karen National Union (KNU) and that security reasons did not allow for a withdrawal from the district in question. The KNU denied the allegations.

The KNU and the national military are maintaining a fragile peaceful coexistence ever since a ceasefire was signed after more than 60 years of fighting in 2012, with the KNU even exercising some sovereign rights like running local governments. Tensions between both sides have risen though recently because of infrastructure projects by the military in the region. [The Irrawaddy] [The Irrawaddy 2] [Asia Times] 

Vietnam scrambles to contain COVID-19 spread, reporting first deaths and facing second wave

(jn) Vietnam reported more than 640 coronavirus infections and six deaths as of Monday after almost two weeks of spiking cases across the country, the origin and epicenter being the central city of Danang, a tourism hub. The town confirmed the first domestically transmitted cases in 100 days nationwide on July 24, after which the virus spread to at least ten places, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. 

The rapid resurgence of the coronavirus left authorities scrambling for a response, triggering multiple measures including lockdowns and quarantines [see AiR No. 30 July/2020, 4], but also mass-scale testing which the government announced on Saturday would also cover Danang’s entire population of 1.1 million people. [Vietnam Ministry of Health] [Straits Times]

To make matters worse, health authorities said that the Covid-19 strain detected in Danang appears to be more contagious than older versions. The infection rate is at about five to six people compared to the previously known strain that accounted for 1.8 to 2.2 people. An infection rate indicates how many people contract the virus in a certain time span after having been in close contact with an infected person. 23 per cent of the latest infections are reported to be asymptomatic.

In an online conference on Saturday, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said he preferred targeted social distancing measures as opposed to another nationwide lockdown. This stance reflects that Vietnam can hardly afford to put the economy into an artificial coma again since the first already diminished government revenue and severely cut economic growth for this year, according to experts. Of all economic sectors, the tourism industry has been especially hit hard, with the number of foreign tourists dropping more than two thirds this spring compared to last year. The government had lifted virtually all domestic restrictions at the beginning of last month eyeing to revive a sluggish economy, however, this will now have to be reversed at least in part.

Phuc also said on Monday that early August would be the “decisive” time to stop the virus from spreading on a large scale, and that the new outbreak could have a more “critical impact” than the original one.

Local analysts also speculate that the Communist Party convention in January 2021, where all major party and government positions will be selected for the next five years, could be postponed [see also AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. [Nikkei Asian Review] [Straits Times 2] [The Diplomat] [Asia Times]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA tensions continue over TikTok, Xinjiang, and South China Sea

(dql) Last week saw again several events and developments which further highlight the strained Sino-US relations.

Following his last week’s threat to ban US operations of TikTok – a popular Chinese video-sharing social networking service owned by a Beijing-based Internet technology company – US President Donald Trump this Monday announced that while TikTok must sell off its US business by mid of September to avoid the ban, the government must receive a share of such a deal.

While Trump cited security concerns as reason for this move saying “It's got to be an American company, it's got to be American securities, got to be owned here,” Beijing expressed firm opposition to “discriminatory US policies against Chinese software companies” and Washington’s “tendency to generalize the concept of national security, make guilty presumptions without evidence and politicize economic issues." Chinese state media meanwhile condemned the move as “open robbery”, accusing Trump of “turning the once great America into a rogue country.” [Reuters 1][Business Insider] [Global Times] [Reuters 2]

In a latest development, Microsoft announced that it “is prepared to continue discussions to explore a purchase of TikTok in the United States.” [Microsoft]

In another move further worsening already frosty relations between Beijing and Washington over Xinjiang, the U.S. Treasury Department has blacklisted Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), along with two of its officials, over accusations of being implicate in human rights abuse against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang.

XPCC is unique economic and paramilitary organization in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China administrating a number of medium-sized cities as well as settlements and farms in this region and fulfilling governmental functions such as healthcare, policing, and education for areas under its jurisdiction. It was created as a refuge for many former soldiers – both Nationalist and Communist – left adrift at the end of the country’s civil war who would both settle the land and defend it – against external assaults and an unruly population. [Foreign Policy]

Meanwhile, Chinese H-6G and H-6J bombers last week conducted a high-intensity exercise over the South China Sea. The drills covered simulated nighttime take-offs, long-range raids and attacks on sea targets. Analysts suggest that the exercise involved scenarios of attacks on U.S. Navy carrier strike groups. Furthermore, three of China’s five military commands have conducted air combat readiness exercises over the South China Sea. [South China Morning Post 1] [Amercian Military News] [South China Morning Post 2]

The exercises come amid heightened Sino-US tensions over the South China Sea and weeks after US Secretary of State Pompeo declared most of China's territorial claims in the South China Sea “completely unlawful”, adding that "America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law […],” to “reject any push to impose 'might makes right' in the South China Sea or the wider region." [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]

Confirming the current distrust towards China in the USA, the Pew Research Center revealed that almost 75% of Americans have unfavorable views of China among Americans, marking a “new historic high” since the start of the China survey of the Center in 2005. A major factor for this negative survey result is the view that China handled outbreak of the coronavirus poorly and is to be blamed for its global spread. [Pew Research Centrer]

The Paew Research Center is an American think tank, based in Washington, D.C., and specialized in social issues, public opinion, and demographic trends shaping the United States and the world.

China-EU relations: Investment agreement, Hongkong and cyberattacks

(dql) Last week, the European Union and China held their 8th High-Level Trade and Economic Dialogue via teleconference. Both sides agreed to speed up talks in order to conclude a China-EU investment agreement by the end of this year and continue to strengthen macro-economic policy adjustments and implement effective fiscal and monetary policies to boost the recovery of the global economy recovery. With regards to fighting the coronavirus, Brussels and Beijing pledged to deepen bilateral cooperation in virus prevention, vaccine development and exchanges of professionals. [Reuters]

This outcome of the trade talks, however, was accompanied by China-critical steps the EU agreed on or took.

In response to the national security law imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing that the Brussels believes could gravely "erode rights and freedoms" in the former British colony, European Union member states reached an agreement on measures including restrictions of the export of any equipment or technology to Hong Kong that can be used for "internal repression, interception of internal communications or cyber surveillance." The measures also cover easing requirements for Hongkongers to travel to Europe, as well as for visas, scholarships and academic exchanges. However, the agreement fell short of any sanctions to be imposed against Hong Kong. [Deutsche Welle]

Furthermore, the European Union imposed its first-ever sanctions against six individuals and three entities from China, Russia and North Korea that were held responsible for, or involved in, three large cyberattacks targeting the EU and its member states in the past decade. The sanctions cover asset freezes and travel bans, as well as prohibiting EU organizations and individuals from making funds available to sanctioned people and entities. [Computer Weekly]

Germany suspends extradition treaty with Hong Kong 

(dql) Citing the disqualification of opposition candidates and the postponement of the legislative election in Hong Kong (see above) as another blow to rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, Germany suspended its extradition agreement with Hong Kong, following the example of the Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. 

China expressed strong opposition calling Berlin’s move as “a serious breach of international law and basic norms governing international relations and gross violation of China’s internal affairs.” [Global News]

US offers Japan help in Senkaku conflict with China

(mp) After tensions with China have worsened due to the conflict over the China-disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands [AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4], Washington has announced its commitment to help Tokyo handling the continual and “unprecedented” incursions by Chinese coast guard vessels into Japan-administered territory in the East China Sea. While the US has been neutral on the issue of sovereignty of the disputed area and has not participated in the daily tensions, it at the same time declared that the disputed islands are covered by the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security and would, therefore, be defended against hostile aggression. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Japan searching for alternatives to Aegis Ashore

(mp) Since the deployment of the US-made Aegis Ashore missile shield has been halted due to cost concerns, Japan is currently assessing three options on how to maintain its defense capability. These include a land-based radar system to detect incoming missiles, which would be shot down by ship-based interceptors, adding further Aegis-equipped vessels to the fleet, and building a sizeable offshore shield structure.

While all three systems have both advantages and disadvantages, the US stressed that it would continue close cooperation regardless of which method wins the bid. After considering factors such as effectiveness, staffing, and costs, Tokyo plans to set out a policy direction within September. [Nikkei Asian Review]

South Korea: Successful launch of first military communications satellite

(dql) South Korea's first military communications satellite successfully reached its final position in the geostationary orbit, making South Korea 10th in the world to own a communications satellite for military purposes only. The ANASIS-II satellite is expected to significantly increase the military's capability to cope with network centric warfare due to its increased transmission capacity and anti-jamming capabilities. It is part of an ambitious plan to strengthen the country’s military power in space, in the frame of a three-stage space development program which aims to build satellite and surveillance systems and deterrence power by 2050, to protect the military's space forces. [Korea Times]

Kashmir: First anniversary of status change sparks fears of violence

(ls) On the first anniversary of the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution on 5 August 2019, a curfew has been imposed throughout all districts for fears of separatist violence. A separate coronavirus lockdown was extended as well. Since the change of status, anger has been growing across the Muslim-majority population in Kashmir against India's Hindu-nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly over the granting of rights to tens of thousands of people from outside of the region to buy land. [Hindustan Times] [Channel News Asia]

According to local police, Indian troops have killed 118 militants between January and July this year, as many as in the whole last year. On the other hand, militants killed a politician from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in early July and a local Congress leader in June. Critical observers therefore consider that the status change has created more problems than it has solved. [The Wire 1]

On 5 August 2019, the Indian government unilaterally abrogated the state’s special status, breaking it into two federal territories, one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu & Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh. 

Pakistan administers a section of Kashmir but claims it in full. China, which has been entangled in several border standoffs with India in recent weeks, claims Ladakh. Observers expect increasing Chinese support for Pakistan in the Kashmir question. [South China Morning Post]

The full text of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill 2019 can be found here: [The Wire 2]

India-China border tensions: India sends additional troops

(ls) India is positioning an additional 35,000 troops along its disputed Himalayan border with China. Though the two sides were disengaging in most locations after several rounds of high-level military talks, China had also increased its military presence with about 50,000 troops earlier. [AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4] The deployment comes as the Indian Army is already heavily committed, from protecting the disputed border with Pakistan, to counter insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir and north eastern states and monitoring its border with China. [Bloomberg Quint]

Strengthening border defenses comes at huge cost and puts India’s military modernization program under pressure. In this regard, the first batch of five French-made Rafale fighter jets has arrived at an Indian Air Force base last week. The jets are part of a $9.4bn deal signed with France in 2016. India has become the world's biggest arms importer. In early July, the government also approved the purchase of 21 Russian MiG-29 and 12 Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter aircraft. [Al Jazeera]

A comparison of India’s capacities to China’s military aircraft power in the region can be found here: [Forbes]

Pakistan: Deadly clashes over protests at Afghan border

(lf) Protests in Pakistan’s Balochistan province ended in deadly clashes between protesters and security forces. Thousands of people had gathered in protests of a renewed closing of the Afghan-Pakistani border due to security concerns. The clashes started when protestors stormed government offices in close proximity to the border. 

The protests were happening at the Chaman border crossing, one of the most important border crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Free movement of labour across the border for trade engagement are under normal circumstances allowed. However, due to the concerns of the spread of the coronavirus, the border has been closed to most people for weeks. Balochistan is a province suffering from poverty. Many residents depend on daily wages and the traditionally porous border with Afghanistan. [Al Jazeera]

Malaysia: Confrontational stance against China's South China Sea claims

(dql) Signaling a hardening stance towards China, Malaysia in a letter to the United Nations last week, has stated that China's maritime claims in the South China Sea are lacking a legal basis, adding that it "rejects China's claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the relevant part of the 'nine-dash line.'" 

The wording of the letter is much stronger than the wording Kuala Lumpur had used in previous communications with the U.N., suggesting that Malaysia may be emboldened by the tougher U.S. stance. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Philippines, Malaysia in diplomatic row over Sabah state

(mp/lm) Responding to an announcement by U.S. Embassy concerning Filipino residents in Malaysia`s Sabah state, the Philippine´s Foreign Secretary posted a tweet claiming that Sabah “is not in Malaysia”. A second statement soon followed it: “You better edit that announcement if you know what´s good for you.” As the tweets revived a longstanding territorial dispute between the Philippines and Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur condemned the tweets as irresponsible and summoned the Philippine ambassador.

In the lead-up to the formation of the Malaysian federation, Sabah joined the neighboring state of Sarawak, and the states of the Malay peninsula to form the Federation of Malaysia in 1963. But the territory was once part of the centuries-old sultanate of Sulu, for which the Philippines claims to be the successor state. [Nikkei Asian Review] [Straits Times]

Royal Thai Army cancels joint-military exercises in the U.S.

(lm) The Defense Ministry on Sunday confirmed that soldiers of the Royal Thai Army (RTA) will not be participating in the next round of the joint annual brigade-level training exercise “Lightning Force”, which was scheduled to be held the U.S. between September and October this year. The announcement comes after nine Thai soldiers, upon returning from Hawaii last month, had been tested positive for coronavirus. [Reuters] [Bangkok Post 1]

For two weeks in July, about 5,500 soldiers took part in Hawaii’s largest ground-based military exercise of the year, including 130 soldiers from the Royal Thai Army. Thailand and the U.S. the same month had signed a Strategic Vision Statement on the continued military and security cooperation of the two countries. [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2].

Notwithstanding the Defense Ministry`s announcement, around 100 U.S. soldiers were put under a 14-day quarantine, after they arrived in Thailand on Monday. Coming from U.S. military bases in Guam and Japan, the U.S. troops are set to join in training activities with the RTA, including Vector Balance Torch, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of this month. [BenarNews] [Bangkok Post 2]

USA pledges support to Vietnam in agreement on South China Sea

(jn) The United States and Vietnam have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on July 22 in which Washington, among other things, seeks to share expertise and technical assistance on sea patrolling, and to cooperate with Vietnam and international law enforcement agencies to combat illegal fishing and intimidation. Experts see the MoU as a sign of a toughened U.S. stance against Beijing’s geopolitical aspirations in the South China Sea even though China was not explicitly mentioned. However, the impact of the MoU remains to be seen as Vietnam is still treading a fine line between emphatically asserting its sovereignty under intentional law in the South China Sea while at the same trying to not overly antagonize Beijing, let alone to get onto a slippery slope towards armed conflict. Likewise, analysts assess U.S. options to be limited by practical constraints and by its own choosing; the U.S. will signal Beijing that it is keeping a close eye on events in the area, boosting Vietnam politically through agreements like the one at hand, while also continuing its freedom of navigation exercises for the time being. 

With regards to Vietnam, the country is still weighing whether to bring suit against China’s encroachment in the South China Sea at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, as did the Philippines successfully in 2016. [South China Morning Post]

Upcoming Online Events

4-7 August 2020, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance/Lorenz & Partners, Thailand

International Online Academy on

“International Economic Law”

This academy is a certificate course with six online lectures on fundamentals and current developments of international economic law, with a focus put on the question of what they mean for Thailand and how the country is dealing with them. Given by lecturers from Thammasat University and lawyers from international business law firms, the lectures cover a wide range of topics. The academy addresses Thai law students and students of related fields who are interested in obtaining and expanding their knowledge in these subjects.

Further information is available at CPG.

5 August 2020 @ 12:00 pm EDT, CATO Institute, USA

Doctors with Borders: Embracing the Potential of Immigrant Doctors

This webinar outlines which legal steps are necessary to ensure a working healthcare system in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on immigrant doctors.

Please find registration details here: [CATO].

5 August 2020 @ 11:00 am EDT, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA

Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? A Conversation with Robert Draper

This event will examine the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, its consequences, and its lessons.

To access the discussion, please visit [Carnegie].

5 August 2020 @ 9:00 am PT, Hoover Institution, USA

America's Longest War and the Prospects for Peace in Afghanistan

This event will discuss America's longest war in Afghanistan by looking at how the past influences the present, the role of Afghanistan's neighbors, and what is at stake for the US, Afghanistan, and the world as the country moves towards peace.

Please find registration details here: [Hoover].

5 August 2020 @ 2:30 pm EDT, Wilson Center, USA

Pandemic Immigration Consternation for the United States and Canada

This virtual panel discussion explores the challenges for the immigration system in Canada and the US brought by the coronavirus and how businesses, families, and individuals will be affected.

Follow [Wilson Center] for further details.

5 August 2020 @ 10:00 am EDT, Middle East Institute, USA

Jordan in 2020: Protests and Pandemic

This event, which is part of a series on human rights in the MENA region in the face of Covid-19, will discuss what the long term impact of the pandemic will be on Jordan's human rights situation and especially on the country's refugees.

Please find details here: [MEI].

5 August 2020 @ 3:00 pm GMT+2, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

How will COVID-19 affect prosecution services?

This webinar explores the impact of Covid-19 on prosecutors and prosecution services, considering how they have tried to mitigate adverse effects, and how the pandemic's disruptions could speed up prosecutorial reform and innovation.

Details are available at [ISSA].

5 August 2020 @ 12:00 pm EDT, Atlantic Council, USA

On-orbit AI & cloud computing

This discussion addresses the topic of on-orbit Artificial Intelligence and Cloud Computing and its impact on the future of mankind. 

A detailed description is accessible at [Atlantic Council].

6 August 2020 @ 5:00 pm AEST, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

The Outlook for Nuclear Disarmament

This webinar will discuss the future for nuclear disarmament, considering the roles of treaties and changing global powers.

Follow [AIIA] for further details.

6 August 2020 @ 1:00 pm CDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

Ambassador Sandhu on US-India Relations

This event discusses the significance of the US-India relationship and how it may change during the global Covid-19 crisis.

If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [Chicago Council].

6 August 2020 @ 2:00 pm BST, Royal United Services Institute, UK

The Legacies of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War for Security in the Black Sea Region

The Deputy Foreign Minister of Georgia will outline the legacies of the 2008 conflict for Georgia, followed by a discussion of how the Black Sea region has been affected by the security dynamics set in motion by the war in 2008.

To access the discussion, please visit [Rusi].

6 August 2020 @ 4:00 pm CDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

The Dawn of the Nuclear Age - 75 Years After Hiroshima

To mark the 75th anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, this event will reflect on this historical event and the prospect of a future free of nuclear weapons.

If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [The Chicago Council].

6 August 2020 @ 9:00 am CEST, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland

Coronavirus and Local Peace Building Efforts in North Africa: Reflections from Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt

This webinar will explore how local peacebuilding actors continued their work in North Africa in times of violence and the pandemic.

For more information and registration, kindly follow [ISSAT].

6 August 2020 @ 2:00 pm EDT, Brookings, USA

Addressing another COVID-19 crisis: Corruption

This webinar will examine the congressional oversight of Covid-19 relief funds and what Congress and other actors need to do to implement vigorous control to ensure that the money disbursed gets to the people in need.

See [Brookings] for additional information.

6 August 2020 @ 10:00 am EDT, Middle East Institute, USA

After Qassem Soleimani: The Islamic Republic's Strategy for the Arab World

This event assesses Iranian policy towards the Arab world following the death of Qassem Soleimani and discusses how Arab states are responding to Iran's actions.

Please find the details here: [MEI].

7 August 2020 @ 1:00 pm PT, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA

How National Security Intelligence is Provided to the President and Senior Officials

This event offers insight into national security intelligence's interactions with the President. Panelists will describe how the process of providing intelligence to policymakers is supposed to work and who decides what information is given to which senior officials.

Please check [FSI] for details.

7 August 2020 @ 10:00 am CDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

World Review with Glasser, Kaminski, and Rachman

This event analyses global trends that have shaped the world in recent years and other crucial developments.

Further details are available at [Chicago Council].

7 August 2020 @ 10:00 am EDT, Wilson Center, USA

Moving Beyond Survival: Sixth Anniversary of Genocide of Yezidis and Christians

This event discusses the 6th anniversary of the genocide of Yezidis and Christians by ISIS, what steps are being carried out to bring about justice, accountability, and the safe return of the communities.

Follow [Wilson Center] for further details.

10 August 2020 @ 3:00 pm EDT, Brookings, USA

Why the world is at a turning point with artificial intelligence and what to do about it

This webinar will discuss AI's opportunities and risks and present a policy and governance blueprint for gaining its benefits.

See [Brookings] for additional information.

11 August 2020 @ 6:00 pm EDT, Open Society Foundations, USA

Book Launch—Lying in State: Why Presidents Lie—And Why Trump Is Worse

This book launch explores the rich history of presidential dishonesty, and how we arrived at our current age of alternative facts.

Event information is accessible at [Open Society].

12 August 2020 @ 10:00 am EDT, United States Institute of Peace, USA

How ISIS Really Ends

This event examines challenges of the post-ISIS landscape across Syria and Iraq, as well as the military's role working alongside diplomacy and development to achieve the enduring defeat of ISIS and long-term stabilization.

Please find the details here: [USIP]

12 August 2020 @ 4:00 pm ET, Hoover Institution, USA

Federalism and COVID-19

This webinar will discuss the connection between Federalism and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Please find registration details here: [Hoover].

12 August 2020 @ 11:00 am ET, American Enterprise Institute, USA

Webinar — 'McCulloch v. Maryland at 200': A book event with Gary J. Schmitt

In this webinar, leading political and legal scholars will analyze the McCulloch v. Maryland supreme court case, its economic context, contemporary views of the judge's opinion, and whether the decision was an exercise in judicial statesmanship.

Visit [AEI] to join the event.

12 August 2020 @ 2:00 pm PDT, World Affairs, USA

True Crimes and Misdemeanors

This webinar explores the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election and President Donald Trump's role. Moreover, significant cases in the recent Supreme Court session will be explained.

Please find registration details here: [World Affairs].

12 August 2020 @ 10:00 am UTC+8, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Webinar Series on Southeast Asian Countries' Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs):

Spotlight on Lao PDR and Myanmar

This talk will focus on the key features of Lao PDR's and Myanmar's updated 2020 NDC targets, the progress of their NDCs, and the long-term low emissions development strategies, as well as opportunities and challenges in the implementation of the NDCs moving forward.

If you are interested in joining the event, visit [ISEAS] for further information.

12 August @ 3:00 pm ACT, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Australia

ASPI Publication Launch: The Cost of Defence 2020-2021

This webinar will provide an analysis of the government's recent 2020 Defence Strategic Update and the accompanying Force Structure Plan.

Details are accessible at [ASPI].

13 August 2020 @ 9:00 am EST, Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Korea Chair "The Capital Cable" #8 with Tae Young-ho

This event will examine events on the Korean peninsula as well as inter-Korean relations.

Please visit [CSIS] for details about the event.

13 August 2020 @ 12:30 pm EDT, CATO Institute, USA

Free to Move: Foot Voting, Migration, and Political Freedom

This webinar explores the principle of "foot voting," which means voting by participating in international migration, choosing where to live within a federal system, and making decisions in the private sector.

Please find registration details here: [CATO].

13 August 2020 @ 11:00 am PDT, Pacific Council on International Policy, USA

The future of aid and conflict in Syria

This webcast will cover the restrictions placed on humanitarian aid delivery in Syria because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Details are accessible under [Pacific Council].

13 August 2020 @ 10:00 am CDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

US-Pakistan Relations and South Asian Peace and Security

The US and Pakistan are looking for ways to collaborate better. This event will examine how the relationship between Pakistan and the US might change amid the global crisis and what the Pakistani government's outlook for peace and security in South Asia looks like.

If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [Chicago Council].

13 August 2020 @ 12:00 pm PDT, World Affairs, USA

COVID-19 and Climate Change: Imagining a new normal

This webinar discusses what a new normal could look like if we put climate change at the forefront of national agendas in the light of Covid-19.

Please find registration details here: [World Affairs].

14 August 2020 @ 10:00 am UTC+8, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Disaster Management in Indonesia: Peatland Forest Fire and Covid-19 Crisis

This webinar discusses the ongoing effort in handling a series of crises of peatland forest fires and the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The panelist will address the challenges in handling the disasters as well as the future of peatland restoration and forest management in the country.

If you are interested in joining the event, visit [ISEAS] for further information.

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