Investors’ focus in the coming week will be honed on tariff announcements. April 2 is the day when numerous tariffs recently outlined by U.S. President Trump are scheduled to come into effect.

U.S. jobs data will be the highlight of the economic calendar as concerns grow about weakening economic growth due to the impact of uncertainty over tariffs.

In Europe, flash estimate eurozone inflation figures could prove key for judging the pace of future European Central Bank interest-rate cuts.

And in Asia, highlights include an interest-rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, economic data from Japan and PMIs across the region, including from China. Read more.

President Trump’s tariffs threaten to amplify a big inflation challenge: Even before the new levies landed, a long run of everyday stuff getting cheaper was coming to a close.

Goods prices shot up during the pandemic, peaking in summer 2023 then declining over the following 12 months. But in September, core goods prices started rising again, by an average of 0.1% a month, including 0.2% in February.

“You’ve got high readings for goods inflation, after a string of readings that average close to zero,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference this month. 

Powell said that the increase is probably partly because of tariffs and partly because of other factors.

• Trump Team Weighs Broader, Higher Tariffs
• Global Stocks Slump as Concerns Mount Over U.S. Tariffs

Fed-funds futures traders have lifted the likelihood that at least three interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will be needed before year-end amid greater focus on the risks of slowing U.S. economic growth. As of Friday, the chance of three or more 2025 quarter-point reductions was seen at 63.2%, up from 51.1% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier this month, Fed officials penciled in two rate cuts for this year. The fed-funds rate target currently sits in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%. (MarketWatch)

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s newly formed monetary policy board needs to get down to business quickly and debate the merits of an immediate interest-rate cut when it gathers for its first meeting this week.

The vast bulk of economists expect the central bank to wait until May to make its next move, when it will be able justify what would be just the second cut in the current cycle using updated economic forecasts and the likelihood that first-quarter inflation data at the end of April will confirm that price pressures have been tamed. Read more.

U.S. personal income and consumption both rose in February, the Commerce Department said Friday. But the Fed's preferred metric for core inflation increased farther above the central bank's target.

• Democrats Fear Trump’s Crypto Entity Will Pose Regulatory Conflict

9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

9:45 a.m.: US Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
10 a.m.: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

What happens if it all goes wrong? Investments designed to preserve your wealth in a stock-market downturn can help preserve your sanity too, allowing you to avoid dumping your favorite stocks as prices tumble.

But finding this market insurance has become harder, with Treasurys and perhaps even the dollar no longer offering the protection they used to, writes James Mackintosh for The Wall Street Journal.

No wonder gold is up so much.

The basic problem: Much of the insurance provided by any investment depends on how other people react. A secondary issue that’s particularly important for Treasurys is the new era of inflation sensitivity. Read more.

The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs. Ahead of the Trump administration’s so-called “liberation day” on Tuesday, which will clarify the extent of U.S. tariff actions and spur likely reprisals from other countries, Goldman Sachs also lifted its forecast for U.S. inflation this year. Goldman said it now expects three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. —James Glynn

Global growth expectations have weakened but U.S. macroeconomic data is giving mixed signals, limiting the decline in stock prices, Bank of America strategists say in a note. U.S. provisional purchasing managers index data improved in March but U.S. monthly GDP data has slowed by 2 percentage points since August to 1.3% in January on a 3-month on 3-month annualized basis, BofA says. "The data ambiguity has limited the degree to which markets have been willing to price real growth weakness," the strategists say. — Miriam Mukuru

• Senate Republicans, torn over how much to reduce spending while cutting taxes, have an emerging strategy: Advance the ball now and figure out the hard parts later.
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says he wants individuals to have better access to the menu of private and less-liquid investments that have long been core holdings of pensions, endowments and other institutions.
• Activity in China’s vast manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March, sending another sign of green shoots in the world’s second-largest economy as policymakers brace for more U.S. tariffs this week.
• A potent mix of policy shifts at home and abroad have raised concerns about Indonesia’s economy, sending investors fleeing from the country’s stock market and plunging the rupiah to an over 20-year low.
• Taiwan’s equities market was an investor darling in 2024, outperforming the rest of Asia in large part due to excitement over artificial intelligence. That momentum hasn’t carried over into 2025, as tariff fears and fading AI buzz take some of the shine off the stocks.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.