Grasp the pattern, read the trend
Asia in Review
No. 50, December/2020, 3
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
Welcome to this week's update on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.
I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Bahrain, Kazakhstan, and Qatar which celebrate Independence Day this week.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Law and Politics in East Asia
China: Xi Jinping urges measures to strengthen political security
(dql) Speaking at a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo, President Xi Jinping made maintaining the safety of the political system a top priority for the party’s work in next five years, calling it the “fundament … to protect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Among other measures, he stressed the need to “strengthen talent building for national security personnel,” and to “forge an unbreakable team of cadres” in order to “prevent and resolve national security risks, increase the capability to foresee and predict risks, and try to discover and choke off the hidden risks with potential significant security implications.” [Xinhua, in Chinese][South China Morning Post]
Xi’s remarks come on the heels of the latest five-year plan, endorsed the party’s Central Committee in October, which for the first time incorporated a chapter on national security into the country’s economic and social development plan, describing “security as the precondition for development.” [Axios] [AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]
They are is also to been seen in the light of a “rectification campaign” kicked off by the party in summer and aimed at getting rid of corruption in the country’s law enforcement apparatus, including the police and other security bodies as well as the judiciary, and targeting “two-faced” officials believed to only pay lip service to the Chinese Communist Party’s rules and orders. The campaign calls on cadres to set aside personal loyalties to “drive the blade in” and “scrape poison off the bone,” to expose wayward colleagues. Observers view the campaign a new purge of Xi Jinping to stabilize his position amid criticism of his leadership within the party. [AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4] [New York Times]
For an analysis and assessment of Xi Jinping’s current power position within the party after a year in which he has been facing domestic pressure over the failure of the initial efforts to contain the coronavirus, a slowing economy, and the trade war with the US, see former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in [Asia Society] who argues that while critics of Xi have not disappeared, they have been “placed in check by […] superior political craft,” proofing Xi as “master politician and a master Machiavellian,” in brutal power politics of the Chinese Communist Party.
China: Bloomberg staffer detained
(dql) Chinese security authorities have detained Chinese Bloomberg News employee Haze Fan on suspicion of endangering national security. Her case is “currently undergoing investigation,” according to the Beijing National Security Bureau. With Bloomberg since 2017, Fan’s coverage was primarily business focused, leaving the nature of the charges against her unclear.
Her detention comes after Chinese-born Australian journalist Cheng Lei who worked for CGTN, a state media company, was also charged with “criminal activities endangering national security” in August. She is currently imprisoned in China. Her case involved two other Australian foreign correspondents who had been working for ABC and Australian Financial Review in China and who had been urgently flown home after avoiding a travel ban by agreeing to be interviewed by the Chinese police on Lei.
Observers view Fan’s detention as a move of the Chinese government to exert pressure on foreign media in China. [Bloomberg] [The Guardian][New York Times] [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]
According to the 2020 report of the Committee to Protect Journalists on journalists imprisoned for their work, China is for the second year in a row the world’s worst jailer, with 47 journalists jailed, followed by Turkey (37), Egypt (27), and Saudi Arabia (24). The total number stands at 274, a new record high. [CPJ]
In the World Press Freedom Index 2020 of Reporters Without Borders, China ranks at 177 out of 180 countries. [RSF]
China shuts down more than 100 apps
(dql) China’s National Cyberspace Administration (NCA), the country’s top internet regulator, has removed more than 100 apps from app stores in the country, citing public complaints about information on the apps containing obscene, pornographic and violent content or promoting fraud, gambling and prostitution.
The move is part of a campaign that started in November in which the NCA announced that it will increase efforts to supervise and inspect mobile apps' information services, and to “promptly clean up and dispose of illegal mobile applications and application stores, and strive to create a clear cyberspace.” [Channel News Asia][CNN]
China/Hong Kong: Prominent protest movement supporter to face trial under national security law
(dql) Arrested in August and denied bail early last week, Hong Kong media tycoon and outspoken democracy advocate Jimmy Lai has been now officially charged on suspicion of colluding with foreign forces and endangering national security. He is so far the most high-profile person to face trail under the security law imposed on the city in June. [AP] [Air No. 49, December/2020, 2]
Lai owns Apple Daily, a tabloid known for its open government-critical coverage and raided in August by security authorities, a move widely seen as an act of intimidation of journalists. [Aljazeera] [AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]
In a development earlier last week, the Hong Kong police arrested eight pro-democracy activists, and another eight persons over a protest they held on a university campus last month, with three of them detained on suspicion of violating the national security law. [CBS] [ABC]
ICC rejects Uighur genocide complaint against China
(dql) The International Criminal Court (ICC) has rejected calls by exiled Uighurs to investigate China for alleged genocide and crimes against humanity, arguing that it was unable to act as the alleged acts happened on the territory of China, which is not a signatory to Rome Statute.
In July, the Uighurs submitted a huge dossier of evidence accusing China of having imprisoned over one million Uighurs and other mostly Muslim minorities in camps for a political re-education and calling on the court to prosecute over 30 Chinese officials, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. [CNN] [Wall Street Journal] [AiR No. 27, July/2020, 1]
Japanese government called on to set maximum detention duration for foreigners
(dql) Amnesty International Japan called on the Japanese Justice Ministry and the Immigration Services Agency of Japan to set maximum confinement periods and keep those terms at an absolute minimum as well as to comply with the principle of non-refoulement which prohibits the deportation of individuals in danger of persecution.
The call comes at the time when the government is planning a revision of the immigration law in response to criticism of its long-term detention of foreign nationals sparked by the death in summer last year of a Nigerian man who went on hunger strike over his prolonged detention at an immigration center. [Mainichi]
South Korea: Ruling party pushes through bill to pave way for the launch of contentious anti-corruption agency
(dql) With the votes of the members of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and against those of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), the National Assembly last week passed a contentious bill on the voting mechanism in the parliamentary committee vested with the power to present nominees to be appointed as the head of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) by the President. The bill allows now the DPK to push through its candidates against any potential veto of the opposition because the bill reduces the quorum for the candidate nomination from six to five in the seven-member committee which consists of the Minister of Justice, the Minister of Court Administration, the President of Korean Bar Association and four other members – two recommended by the ruling party and the other by the opposition. [Korea Herald 1]
The CIO bill had passed the National Assembly in December last year and came into force in July. It is expected to police almost 6.500 "high-ranking officials", including high-ranking government officials, parliamentarians, prosecutors, judges, and the President – incumbent and former – and their spouses and children. But the start of the CIO’s work has been delayed as the PPP blocked with their vetoes the selection of the CIO’s first leader in three meeting rounds in November. The PPP accuses the ruling party of using the CIO for its own political gains arguing that the agency is not checked by any other body. [Korea Herald 2][Dong-A Ilbo]
Prior to the CIO Act, the prosecutors’ office had the power to investigate and to prosecute an individual or an entity (including corporations) for nearly all criminal offenses, while the police had the power to investigate general crimes, such as fraud, embezzlement, and forgery. Under the CIO Act, if the prosecution or the police detect any alleged crime of a high-ranking public official, they are required to immediately notify the CIO. Upon notification, the CIO may compel the relevant investigative agency to transfer the case to the CIO. [Lexology]
In a related development, the parliament also approved a revision of the country’s police law which grants the police more investigative authority, introduces a local autonomous police system and permits the creation of a national investigation office. [Yonhap]
South Korea: New spy agency law
(dql) South Korea’s parliament passed a bill to revise the National Intelligence Service Korea Act to transfer the power of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to conduct anti-communist investigations to the police. The NIS can now only deal with gathering and processing intelligence related foreign affairs and North Korea, as well as conduct counterintelligence and counterterrorism operations. The bill also explicitly bans the NIS from interfering in domestic politics. The revised law will enter into force after a three-year grace period. [Korea Herald]
Taiwan is the only open society in Asia, report says
(dql) For the third consecutive year, Taiwan is the only country in Asia having an open civic space, according to the "People Power Under Attack 2020" report of Civicus Monitor, a South Africa-based international non-profit organization.
The report assesses the civic space of various countries with regards to freedoms of association, peaceful assembly, and expression, with country ratings covering five categories: “open”, “narrowed,” “obstructed,” “repressed,” and “closed.”
Among countries listed in the Asia Pacific region, four countries — China, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam — are rated as closed, while nine are listed as repressed and nine as obstructed. Japan and South Korea are rated as narrowed, and only Taiwan is deemed to be open. [Civicus Monitor]
Taiwan: Government announces human rights protection action plan amid criticism on migrant workers’ rights
(nm) Last week, Taiwan’s government introduced a National Action Plan on Business and Human Rights, making Taiwan is the second country in Asia – after Thailand – to adopt such a plan. It focusses on three key aspects: the government’s responsibility to protect human rights, companies’ responsibility to respect human rights, and channels for compensation.
The government also announced that it would introduce a draft act to adopt the UN Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. Furthermore, it said that it is considering establishing a human rights division which would oversee cross-department discussion and policy in human rights issues. [Taipei Times 1]
Meanwhile, about 200 migrant workers and migrant workers’ rights advocates protested in front of the Legislative Yuan this week, calling for the introduction of a “household service act” that would ensure legal protection of foreign domestic workers. About 33% of more than 700,000 migrant workers in Taiwan are domestic workers currently not covered by the Labor Standards Act which provides minimum standards for working conditions. [Taipei Times 2]
Taiwan’s National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), meanwhile, called on the government to protect the rights of new immigrants and migrant workers last week, as part of the commission’s independent opinion report which focusses on human rights issues that the government should continue to address. Regarding immigrants, the commission expressed concerns over the rate of domestic violence in cross-national marriages and current legislation which effectively forces victims to stay in abusive marriages: divorced immigrants who are neither naturalized nor possess an Alien Permanent Resident Certificate are only allowed to remain in Taiwan if their children are underage. Concerning migrant workers, the report criticized both the lack of legal protection for domestic caregivers as well as poor working conditions of migrant fishermen on Taiwanese distant water fishing boats. [Focus Taiwan 1]
The NHRC also called on the government to correct numerous procedural problems in the enforcement of the death penalty, including not allowing sufficient time for inmates to file appeals and the lack of clear rules on the respective responsibilities of prison staff and court bailiffs. The Commission cited cases of executions in which innates were waiting for response to their application for a presidential pardon, violating the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. [Focus Taiwan 2]
In a separate development, two lawmakers of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also urged the Ministry of Labor last week to revise the Gender Equality in Employment Act to better protect workers against sexual harassment. The existing act does not stipulate a process for investigating cases in which an employer is the perpetrator, discouraging victims from filing complaints “through the system.” Among others, the amendment would tackle this issue by allowing victims to appeal to local authorities. [Taipei Times 3]
Taiwan: Bill on the way to remove need for husband’s consent for abortion
(nm) Taiwan’s Health Promotion Administration (HPA) announced that it is working on revising the Genetic Health Act to remove the requirement for married women to obtain permission from their partner before having an abortion. Article 9 of the current Act provides that abortion by a married woman “shall be subject to her husband’s consent unless her husband is missing, unconscious or deranged.”
The amendment being drafted follows an enforcement act promulgated by the Executive Yuan in 2012 for the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, instructing the HPA to change the provision as it contravened the UN convention. After further consolidating recommendations, the HPA hopes to complete the draft by March. [Taipei Times]
Taiwan: Court overrules appeal of pro-China news channel against its closure
(nm) Chung Tien Television (CTiTV) ultimately had to shut down its news channel last week as the channel’s six-year broadcast license expired after the Supreme Administrative Court had overruled an appeal by the company that was directed against the rejection of a request for an injunction by the Taipei High Administrative Court. With the injunction request, CTiTV sought to continue operation after the channel’s application for the renewal of its broadcast licence was rejected by the National Communications Commission (NCC) in November.
The legal battle of CTiTV, widely known for its harsh critics of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and for being friendly towards China, has been accompanied by a heated debate between the DPP and the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).
While the KMT called the decision of the NCC politically motivated, accusing the NCC of “subverting freedom of speech and freedom of press”, the DPP described it as effective move to deter abuse of freedom of press. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Taipei Times]
Meanwhile, the NCC announced that it is drafting the Digital Communications Act to better regulate “inappropriate” online content. A similar act had been introduced by the NCC in 2018 but did not pass the Legislative Yuan due to concerns over internet censorship. [Focus Taiwan 2]
Law and Politics in South Asia
Bangladesh: UN urges safety assessment of Bangladeshi island where Rohingya were shipped
(lm) A United Nations (UN) human rights investigator urged Bangladesh on December 10 to allow a safety assessment of the remote island where the government shipped 1,600 Rohingya refugees last week [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2], and a verification process to ensure that refugees are not forced to go. [The Straits Times]
The United Nations says it has not been allowed to carry out a technical and safety assessment of Bhasan Char, a dangerous low-lying island in the Bay of Bengal prone to cyclones and floods and was not involved in the transfer of refugees there. Further, accusing Bangladeshi authorities of pressuring the Rohingya community, rights groups say refugees have been listed without their consent.
Bangladesh’s foreign minister reiterated that the government was transferring only people who are willing to go, adding that the move would ease chronic overcrowding in camps in the southern district of Cox’s Bazar [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2]. He also said the UN should first assess and verify how conducive the environment in Myanmar’s Rakhine state was for repatriating the refugees, before carrying out an assessment of Bhasan Char.
Bhutan: Parliament decriminalizes homosexuality
(lm) A joint sitting of both houses of Bhutan's Parliament approved a Bill on December 10 to repeal two sections of the country’s 2004 criminal code which deemed ‘unnatural sex’ between consenting adults - widely interpreted as homosexuality - illegal. The changes still need to be approved by the King of Bhutan to become a law. [The Straits Times]
Lat year, the motion to repeal the penal code provisions was passed almost unanimously in the National Assembly. However, the National Council, Parliament’s upper house, did not support the wholesale scrapping of the two sections, and, instead, sent the amendment bill with certain changes for reconsideration to the lower house [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3].
The following day, the joint sitting of both houses amended various sections of the penal code to increase the punishment in cases involving rape, rape of children, and pregnant women in the country. Earlier, rights activists had called for more effective strategies and interventions in minimizing and preventing rape cases in the country, including stricter punishment for offenders [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Kuensel]
India: Farmers intensify protests as deadlock over new farming laws continues
(lm) Leaders of protesting Indian farmers began a one-day hunger strike on December 14 against three new agricultural laws aimed at overhauling the food grain procurement and sale of produce [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. Stepping up pressure on the government to withdraw the legislation, tens of thousands of Indian farmers the previous day demonstrated near New Delhi after rejecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's assurances that the laws would double farmers' income. [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times 1]
At least 30 farmer unions are actively protesting against the new laws they say were introduced without consultation, demanding a complete rollback of the new laws. To break the deadlock between, the federal government on December 8 proposed some amendments to the new farm laws. However, the farmers rejected the proposal, and called for a one-day nationwide strike after days of blockading New Delhi [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [The Straits Times 2]
Pakistan: Opposition movement announces long march on Islamabad
(lm) In the culmination of the first phase of protests, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PMD) [see e.g. AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1] continued to build momentum, as tens of thousands of people defied coronavirus restrictions to protest in the city of Lahore on December 13. Leaders of the PMD also announced a long march on the capital of Islamabad in a bid to pile pressure on the federal government of Prime Minister Imran Khan [see also AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4], but stopped short of giving a specific date. [Dawn] [Al Jazeera]
Held in what is regarded as the bastion of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan’s largest opposition party, the rally in Lahore assumed added significance. What is more, the city is located in the state of Punjab, which is considered the backbone of the Pakistani security establishment’s institutional power and public support base. Thus, analysts expected the rally that targeted the military’s leadership for its alleged support for Prime Minister Khan and his government [see e.g. AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1] to beckon a clear action plan for taking the opposition movement to its next phase. [The Diplomat]
Prime Minister Imran Khan on December 14 declared the PDM’s rally a ‘flop power show’, adding that the anti-government movement was buried in Lahore. The prime minister also lashed out at the leaders of the movement for staging public meetings at a time when the country is reeling under the impact of COVID-19. [Dawn 1]
In the run-up to the protests, the PDM stated that all national and provincial lawmakers belonging to its constituent parties would hand over their resignations to their respective party heads by the end of the year. It is noteworthy, however that mass resignation might not stop the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) from acquiring a majority in the upper house of the parliament after the Senate elections in March 2021, because laws and the Constitution are silent on any specific requirement related to number of lawmakers to be present in the house for voting. What is more, over 65 percent of the senators who are set to retire next year, after completing their six-year constitutional term, belong to the opposition parties. Thus, these parties will not be able to retain their majority in the upper house of parliament, even if their members do not resign from the legislatures. [Dawn 2] [Dawn 3] [Republic World]
The Islamabad administration, meanwhile, on December 11 extended a ban on all kinds of gatherings of five or more people, processions, and demonstrations at any public place in the capital, including the ‘red zone’, which houses parliament, the prime minister’s office, and most foreign embassies, for a period of two months. [WION]
Nepal: Battle lines between rivaling NCP factions drawn in the run-up to Standing Committee meeting
(lm) Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who has been facing the heat from the rival faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), got a temporary reprieve on December 14, as a meeting of the party’s Standing Committee ended after passing a condolence message on the death of an NCP central member. Still, as the feud within NCP shows no sign of ebbing, factional gatherings have been organized by both sides to gauge their strengths before the next meeting of the party’s Standing Committee, scheduled for December 16. [The Kathmandu Post] [The Himalayan Times 1]
Prime Minister Oli has been resenting a 19-page proposal authored by his rival and party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal. In the document, Dahal accused the prime minister of defying party norms and values, disobeying party committees’ decisions, and making appointments to constitutional bodies without consulting top leaders [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. Although the prime minister demanded the proposal to be withdrawn, while presenting his rebuttal on November 28, party officials decided that both documents had formally entered the party committee and thus had to be duly discussed [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].
During the party’s last Standing Committee meeting held on December 6 both documents – Dahal’s proposal and the prime minister’s rebuttal – were presented and discussed. Since then, Oli not only skipped two NCP meetings [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], but also last week called an all-parties meeting to discuss the current political developments [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2].
The country’s Minister for Home Affairs, meanwhile, said the NCP would not split, but would rather grow stronger amid the ongoing intraparty struggle. [The Himalayan Times 2]
Nepal: Rights violations rampant, according to Asian Human Rights Commission
(lm) The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC), an independent, non-governmental body that promotes human rights in Asia, on December 10 accused the Nepalese government of using the COVID-19 pandemic to exercise control, commit human rights violations, and deny justice to victims of human rights abuses. [AHRC]
In 2020, there were mounting allegations of extrajudicial executions and deaths in custody resulting from torture. Members of marginalized communities, including Dalits (a name for people belonging to the lowest caste in India), are far more likely to be tortured than members of other caste groups. [The Himalayan Times]
In October, Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission published the names of more than 280 people including police officers, soldiers, and former Maoist insurgents, recommending them for prosecution for events over the last 20 years.
The Supreme Court has directed the government to form a new body to investigate allegations of extra judicial killings, acting on a public interest litigation filed against the government. [The Himalayan Times]
Separately, Amnesty International Nepal on December 10 started a campaign, appealing to Nepal’s authorities to launch an independent and impartial investigation into all incidents of custodial deaths. [The Kathmandu Post] [Amnesty International]
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Cambodia: EU to announce global human rights sanction regime
(nd) The EU announced the adoption of a global human rights sanction regime, including travel bans and the freezing of assets of individuals or entities held responsible for acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, and other serious human rights abuses. It also blocks access to EU funds. [Carnegie]
Due to its current human rights situation, observers believe that Cambodia is likely to be the target of this sanction regime, which could further damage its ties to the West. Human rights campaigners therefore urged Cambodia to effectively resolve human rights and democracy issues. [Radio Free Asia]
The EU has already suspended trade preferences for Cambodia with the halt of its “Everything But Arms” (EBA) scheme in August [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3] [No. 41, October/2020, 2].
Last month, US lawmakers urged Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to impose sanctions under the Magnitsky Act against senior leaders of the CPP responsible for repression of the CNRP. [Asia Times]
Indonesia: Rights commission investigates killing of Islamic extremists
(nd) After six members of the extremist Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) have been killed earlier last week by the police, the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) has announced an investigation, a move which has been welcomed by the police.
According to the police, officers in three cars followed a convoy of vehicles carrying FPI leader Rizieq Shihab, who has ignored police summonses to face a questioning over alleged violation to the health protocol. Two cars made vehicle contact and the police shot their tires, which prompted six people to step out of the car, releasing shots and carrying machetes. The convoy comprised eight cars, four carrying Shihab and family members, the other four carried FPI Special Guard members. In a press conference, the police showed two pistols, ammunitions and at least four machetes as evidence, and referred to a conversation from a chat group to prove an order to attack the chasing officers, including by hitting vehicles. FPI, however, commented that none of their members carried a weapon, and the vehicles involved did not carry police symbols, and the officers were in plain clothes. Therefore, they referred to the actions as extrajudicial killings. [Jakarta Globe]
The incident is likely to fuel tensions between government security forces and the FPI, which claims to have 15 million followers, with Shahab having filled a leadership vacuum among Islamic hardliners and possibly mainstream conservatives. Political analysts assume Shahab receives backing from opposition politicians and members of the country’s oligarchy because of his potential influence in future elections. President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo referred to Shihab’s behavior as a threat to national unity, which seems to be backed by the public. [Asia Times]
In a latest development, Indonesian police held Shihab for questioning on suspicion of breaching coronavirus restrictions by staging several mass gatherings since his return from self-exile last month. [Aljazeera]
For an assessment of Shihab’s chances to challenge the Indonesian government by harnessing public frustrations over pandemic and the country’s first recession in 22 years see [The Chronicle Herald].
Indonesia: Leader of al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group arrested
(nd) The leader of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), a group linked to al-Qaeda, and responsible for the Bali bombings in 2002, and an expert bomb maker were arrested in Indonesia last week. JI was involved in deadly terrorist attacks from 1998 to 2010. It was then significantly weakened by counterterrorism police, formed with American assistance. They were able to arrest hundreds of members during that time, including strategic arrests of leaders. Lately, the organization was on the rise again, after achieving to accumulate significant income due to business interests in palm oil plantations and other commercial sectors like the mining industry. This latest capture is the final step in arresting the ones involved in the Bali bombings, which led to tough new security measures at hotels and public buildings, that continue to be in place. [South China Morning Post][Asia Times]
Malaysia: Concerns over deteriorating climate for rights and democracy
(nd) Over increasing censorship and loss of civil liberties, human rights groups warn Malaysia’s democracy to deteriorate under the current Perikatan Nasional coalition government. Concerns for the freedom of expression have particularly mounted in 2020 with many police actions targeting journalists, media outlets and individual’s behavior on social media which might be seen as a return to the time before the 2018 “beacon of hope” elections, while it, however, also seems to reflect the general trend in Southeast Asia. [South China Morning Post]
Malaysia: Budget bill won majority in third reading
(nd) In the third parliamentary deliberation on the 2021 budget, it was passed with a slight majority. The budget vote was commonly seen as a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, which finally disproved claims by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to dispose of the backing of a majority of MPs. The US$78 billion budget is the country’s largest-ever on record amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The deliberations were fraught by politicking, with the PM facing pressure from multiple side, including within his ruling alliance.
In the five weeks since the budget was first tabled, Muhyiddin has come under questioning from multiple quarters, including from within his ruling alliance. Particularly, ex-prime minister Najib Razak (Umno) exerted pressure on the budget bill. Umno supplies the majority of MPs to Muhyiddin’s coalition. Additionally, Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance were pressuring the PM. After surprisingly winning the polls in 2018, PH was ousted from power in February by a coup directed by Muhyiddin. Mahathir Mohamad commented his belief the government would collapse on Tuesday, offering his help to advise the next administration.
After clearance by the upper house of parliament and assented to by Sultan Abdullah, the budget will be passed into law. [South China Morning Post]
Philippines: Concerns over China funded company hiring Philippine ex-soldiers to ensure cybersecurity
(nd) Philippine telecommunication company Dito in which Chinese state-run China Telecom (ChinaTel) holds a 38.9% stake is under increasing criticisms for risking the integrity of national security interests, not least for the fact that it is building facilities inside military camps as well. Now, the telecom company that claims to remain Filipino in nature faces even more concern as it has recruited at least 9 former soldiers from the Philippine’s armed forces to its cybersecurity team headed by a former general. While the company claims the soldiers would ensure loyalty to their country, critics see security risks greater endangered. [Rappler]
Thailand: Alliance for human right protection
(nd) In the wake of four months of ongoing protests, Thai human rights lawyers have formed a Human Rights Lawyers Alliance to monitor and sue authorities for abuse of power. Members are the Human Rights Lawyers Association, Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, the EnLAW Foundation, the Cross Cultural Foundation, United Lawyers For Rights and Liberty, the Legal Rights and Environmental Protection Association, iLaw, the Muslim Attorney Centre and the Community Resource Centre Foundation.
The formation of the new alliance was prompted by the authorities’ response to the recent protests, seen as further undermining the freedom of expression. Essentially, the alliance calls for a return to the rule of law which it sees distorted since the coup of 2014. With the aimed initiation of lawsuits, the alliance seeks to create a standard for future protests and to raise authority awareness to respect the people’s rights. [Prachatai]
Meanwhile, protesters rallied in front of the UN’s regional head office to urge the UN to pressure the Thai government to repeal the harsh lese majeste law, the infamous section 112 of the penal code. After the law has not been used for some time on request of the Thai King, protesters’ hitherto unthinkable challenges to the monarchy were followed by a recent change of that policy leading authorities to charge 23 protesters with alleged violations of the law which carries a possible prison sentence of 15 years. [Channel News Asia]
Vietnam: Government intensified crackdown on dissidents in 2020, according to rights activists
(lm) Vietnam’s already low tolerance of dissent has deteriorated sharply this year, as authorities have stepped up arrests and harsh gag orders on activists, independent journalists, and bloggers who raise concerns or criticism of their government, according to rights groups. What is more, experts say the coronavirus pandemic has diverted attention away from Hanoi, allowing the government to get away with intensifying crackdowns. [Radio Free Asia]
A case in point, Pham Chi Thanh, author of books and essays critical of Vietnam’s communist government, earlier this month was transferred from the detention center to a mental hospital. He has been held since May on charges under Article 117 of Vietnam’s 2015 Penal Code for ‘producing, storing, and disseminating information and documents against the Vietnamese state’. [AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]
In another example, Vietnam’s government in November threatened to shut down Facebook in the country if the social media giant does not bow to government pressure to censor more local political content on its platform [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. The company has long faced criticism from rights group for too willingly acquiescing to government censorship demands, instead of using its leverage as Vietnam’s biggest media platform to hold the line against censorship [see e.g. AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
China plants its flag on the moon
(dql) In a highly symbolic move signaling China’s space ambitions, the lander of China’s spacecraft Chang-e 5 unfolded a Chinese flag on the moon before the spacecraft took off to return to the earth, making China the second country in history to put its flag on the moon, over 50 years after the US first planted the Stars and Stripes. [BBC]
In a related development, China announced that it plans to launch a new imaging satellite to monitor Arctic shipping routes which will employ Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology capable of observing the Earth’s surface even during night time and through cloud layers or smoke. [High North News]
Reflecting China’s space ambitions, Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 remarked that China’s space program was a “part of the dream to make China stronger.” More boldly, the Chief Commander of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, made the following comparison in 2017: “The universe is like the ocean: The moon is like the Diaoyu Islands and Mars is like Scarborough Shoal,” adding that “[w]e will be blamed by our descendants if we don’t go there … and others get there before us.” [The Trumpet] [ZGZX, in Chinese]
Meanwhile, US President Trump in his “National Space Policy of the United States of America”, released last week, reassured that the US “will continue to use space for the security of the Nation and our allies,” and warned that “[s]hould any adversary threaten to endanger the benefits we all derive from space, the United States will employ all elements of national power to deter and, if necessary, prevail over hostile activities in, from, and through space.” [White House]
China-US relations: Beijing’s visa retaliation, Washington’s crackdown on Chinese tech firms
(dql) China last week cancelled arrangements of visa-free visit to Hong Kong and Macau for holders of US diplomatic passports, retaliating a decision of the Trump administration early last week to impose financial sanctions and a travel ban on 14 vice-chairpersons of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, the country’s top legislative body, over their alleged role in the disqualification of elected opposition lawmakers of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. [South China Morning Post] [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]
Meanwhile, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the country’s telecoms regular, has rejected a petition of ZTE Corp, a major Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, requesting the agency to reconsider its decision in June to designate the Chinese company as a threat to US national security. [Aljazeera]
In a related move, the FCC announced that it has started the process of revoking China Telecom’s authorization to operate in the US. China Telecom, the largest Chinese telecommunications company, is considered being forced to comply with Chinese government’s demands for information, including communications intercepts. [Reuters]
China-Japan relations: Defense Ministers agree on communication hotline amid continued differences over disputed East China Sea islands
(dql) China’s Wei Fanghe and his Japanese counterpart Nobuo Kishi agreed during a virtual meeting to strengthen efforts to quickly establish a hotline between their officials to prevent accidental clashes at sea and in the air. Both countries had launched a communication mechanism between their defense authorities in 2018. However, opening a hotline – a pillar of that mechanism – but they have made little progress.
At the same time, both sides insisted on their respective claims over disputed islands in the East China Sea. While Kishi called Beijing's claims over those islands "completely unacceptable," Wei reaffirmed China’s "unwavering" commitment to defending its territorial sovereignty and maritime interests. [Nikkei Asian Review]
China-Germany relations: Berlin bocks Chinese takeover of German satellite provider
(dql) Citing national security concerns, the German government has reportedly rejected the acquisition of key German satellite provider IMST by Addsino, a subsidiary of state-owned defence group China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation which manufactures military communication systems.
IMST is the primary satellite technology provider in Germany and the radar communications supplier to the German Armed Forces. It is also involved in 5G technology development. [Republic World] [Business Times]
South Korea to buy US navy helicopters
(dql) South Korea’s Defense Ministry has revealed that it will purchase for 878 million USD 12 Seahawk helicopters, manufactured by a Lockheed Martin affiliate, to equip its next-generation main aircraft for naval operations, in a bid to strengthen the Navy's detection and attack capabilities against enemies' vessels and submarines. The arms deal is expected to be signed within this year.
Inter-Korean relations: South Korea bans anti-North leaflets
(dql) South Korean’s parliament passed amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act to criminalize any scattering of printed materials, goods, money, and other items of value across the inner-Korean border. Furthermore, it restricts loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts, which for a long time had been used by the South Korean military as part of its psychological warfare against North Korea until it withdrew the equipment following a 2018 summit between the two Koreas.
Violating the new law is punishable with up to three years in prison or a fine of nearly 28.000 USD.
The ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) which pushed through the law with its majority of 174 seats in the 300-member parliament was criticized from the main opposition People Power Party, human rights activists and North Korea defectors for sacrificing freedom of expression to improve ties with the North. [Reuters] [The Guardian]
Taiwan-Saudi Arabia relations: Double taxation agreement concluded
(nm) Taiwan and Saudi Arabia have signed an accord to avoid double taxation and income tax invasion, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The agreement is set to take effect on January 1, 2021.
To date, Taiwan has signed tax agreements with 34 countries, Saudi Arabia being the first nation in the Middle East to sign such an agreement with Taiwan. Saudi Arabia is Taiwan’s 13th-largest trading partner and seeks to diversify its economy as it gradually shifts away from dependence on oil exports. Part of this strategy is encouraging foreign investment. [Focus Taiwan]
Cross-strait relations: Three alleged Chinese cyberagents held in national cyber security case
(nm) Last week, Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MJIB) arrested three Taiwanese for allegedly working as agents of the Chinese government. The arrested are accused of disseminating misinformation online that Taiwan and the US were planning to intervene in the domestic politics in Thailand by supporting pro-democracy protests to destabilize the government. They are also suspected of creating social media accounts to promote claims of voting fraud in Taiwan’s presidential election and misinformation on the COVID-19 pandemic.
MJIB stated that the arrests are the first documented case of China successfully recruiting Taiwanese as paid online agents of its “cyberarmy” that works to undermine Taiwanese national security and its international relations. [Taipei Times] [Focus Taiwan]
India-China ties significantly damaged, says India’s foreign minister, citing ‘Beijing’s dishonesty’
(lm) Addressing a webinar organized by the Lowy Institute, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said last week bilateral relations between New Delhi and Beijing are at the ‘most difficult phase’ in the last three to four decades. Putting the blame firmly on China, he said that Beijing had flouted bilateral agreements and mutually agreed norms that had hitherto allowed both sides to maintain peace.
Speaking against the larger backdrop of the continued border stand-off with China [see article this edition] Jaishankar blamed ‘Beijing's dishonesty’ as the reason for massive troop deployment along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), adding that China has given India five differing explanations for its unprecedented military activity along the LAC. [Al Jazeera]
In remarks that clearly echoed accusations made by India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in September [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4], Jaishankar elaborated that relations between India and China had had problems since 1988, but were moving in a positive direction, because there was an understanding that both sides would maintain ‘peace and tranquillity’ along the border, despite having diverging perceptions of the LAC. [The Print]
Responding to Jaishankar’s statement, China on December 10 swiftly rejected the accusations, saying that ‘the responsibility totally lies with the Indian side’. [The Hindu]
West has policy to engage India in ‘anti-China games’, says Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov
(lm) While delivering a speech at a state-run think tank, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week created a geopolitical stir, claiming that India was being manipulated by Western countries into ‘anti-China games’ directed at undermining New Delhi’s partnership with Moscow. Reflecting Russia’s traditional suspicion of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a geographical and strategic construct, the foreign minister also asserted that the concept was aimed at disrupting existing regional structures by giving them a pronounced anti-China slant. [The Wire]
The remarks sparked commentaries from irked observers who expressed concern at Moscow being oblivious ‘to the agency of India in shaping its own priorities’. In the same vein, New Delhi on December 11 pushed back against the Russian foreign minister’s stand, saying the country has an independent foreign policy based on its national interests. [Observer Research Foundation] [Hindustan Times]
While Lavrov in the past had criticized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States, his current remarks come in times of an ongoing military stand-off between India and China. In this context, it is worth recollecting that Russia, which provides more than 60 percent of India’s weaponry, has been nudging both countries to get back to the negotiating table [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. [South China Morning Post]
India, China deploy assault boats at Pangong Tso
(lm) While a breakthrough continues to elude diplomats and top military commanders alike, who are trying to resolve the months-long border stand-off, latest reports suggest that China is reinforcing its presence around the Pangong Tso by, deploying assault boats to the glacial lake. India, in turn, will also deploy boats with enhanced capabilities, including anti-ramming features, by next summer. [The EurAsian Times] [Swarajya]
Indian media reported earlier this month that China has not only dug its heels in Ladakh, but has also increased military activity on its side of the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere. In response to the developments, the Indian Navy deployed its elite Marine Commandos (MARCOS) near Pangong Tso, adding to India’s strength along the Line of Control (LoC). [AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]
China again bails out Pakistan to pay maturing 2$ billion Saudi loan
(lm) China has agreed to immediately provide $1.5 billion finance line to Pakistan, which is preparing to repay the second tranche ($1 billion) of a $2 billion loan from Saudi Arabia. The remaining $1 billion is due in January 2021. [The Express Tribune]
Pakistan had forwarded a formal request in November for granting a rollover of the $2 billion Saudi loan [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2], which was part of a $6.2 billion financial assistance package announced by Saudi Arabia in November 2018, when Islamabad was struggling with rapidly expanding trade deficit and declining foreign reserves. The package included $3 billion in cash assistance and a $3.2 billion worth of annual oil and gas supply on deferred payments [see AiR (5/10/2018)]. Islamabad has already paid back 1$ billion out of the $3 billion in May this year, after taking a $1 billion loan from China, while $2 billion are still with the State Bank of Pakistan. [AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]
Prior loans were extended through China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) deposits or as commercial loans. This time, however, both countries have agreed to augment the size of an existing bilateral Currency-Swap Agreement (CSA) by an additional $1.5 billion, thereby increasing the overall size of the trade facility to $4.5 billion. The benefit of this arrangement will be that the additional $1.5 billion Chinese loan will not reflect on the book of the federal government. But what is more, the loan will not be treated as part of Pakistan’s external public debt, and thus will not further burden the country’s dwindling foreign currency reserves, which currently stand at $12.2 billion [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Moneycontrol]
The CSA, which was signed between the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) in December 2011, is scheduled to mature in May next year. Pakistan last month decided to seek a rollover. In the event Pakistan fails to secure a third extension, the SBP will be liable to repay Beijing $3 billion by using dollars to buy Chinese yuan, a move that analysts say will certainly affect the country’s foreign reserves [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2].
India needs to build ‘dissuasive deterrence’ against China, says Chief of Defense staff
(lm) India's Chief of Defense Staff, General Bipin Rawat, on December 11 said India will seek to engage with extra-regional powers and improve regional linkages to build ‘dissuasive deterrence’ against China's attempts at establishing its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. Further elaborating, General Rawat said New Delhi will build on existing bilateral and multilateral mechanisms, including more training engagements with partner nations, while also retaining strategic autonomy in decision-making. [Tribune India] [Hindustan Times]
Context and timing of General Rawat’s remarks, made at the Global Dialogue Security summit on ‘Contesting the Indo-Pacific for Global Domination’, are noteworthy. Taking against the larger backdrop the protracted border stand-off with China [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], they come in a time when India is trying to strengthen strategic ties with neighboring countries such as Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. They also follow in the wake of a string of virtual engagements by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed at deepening political and economic ties with European nations [see e.g. AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Already, leading European powers nations Germany and France have unveiled strategies for the Indo-Pacific [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].
Separately, Indian Army Chief General Naravane from December 9 to December 14 proceeded on a visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, marking the first time an Indian Army Chief was visiting the UAE and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. [Anadolu Agency]
India in talks with Australia for free trade pact, says foreign minister
(lm) Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed talks on a possible trade deal with Australia following New Delhi’s exit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Canberra and New Delhi held nine rounds of talks on a trade deal between 2011 and 2015, before Australian Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in June agreed to restart negotiations. [The Straits Times] [South China Morning Post]
Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies - 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus the bloc`s five major trading partners Japan, China, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand - signed the RCEP last month, forming the world's largest free trade bloc that excludes the United States. [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]
Originally a negotiating participant of the RCEP, New Delhi in November last year announced its withdrawal from the RCEP over fears the elimination of tariffs would make it difficult to protect domestic industries from China, whose low-priced exports are highly competitive in Indian markets [see AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1, AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2].
Jaishankar also said India and Australia would have ‘very strong defense ties’, adding that he hoped for strong trade cooperation. Last month, India, along with Australia, the United States and Japan conducted their largest joint naval exercises in over a decade [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. While the Malabar exercise was formally independent of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) consultation mechanisms, observers say Canberra’s participation after 13 years of absence is a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four countries in the face of China's vast military and economic power in the region [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].
Separately, the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund (AISRF) is financing six new projects, ranging from farming technology to coronavirus detection, following a nearly $4 million investment by the Australian government. [NDTV]
Sri Lanka on agenda for upcoming meeting of Board of Directors of Millennium Challenge Cooperation
(lm) Sri Lanka has been placed on the agenda for the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) scheduled for December 15. During the meeting, board members will discuss fiscal year 2020 eligibility and selection process and hear an update from the MCC. The MCC is a bilateral United States foreign aid agency that works to alleviate poverty by providing time-limited grants intended to promote economic growth, reduce poverty, and strengthen institutions. [Daily Mirror]
Last year, the Board of Directors of the MCC approved a five-year, $480 million Compact with the Government of Sri Lanka aimed at reducing poverty through economic growth [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. Under the current government, which came into power at the end of last year, little headway has been made. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa appointed a four-member committee to review the compact and the committee handed over its review report to the Prime Minister and the President in June this year. In the wake of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Colombo visit, President Rajapaksa said on November 1 that the MCC would not be signed under his administration [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. [Nation Online]
Nepal, meanwhile, is also facing increased pressure to endorse the MCC during parliament’s upcoming winter session, if the country wants to ensure the continued viability of the program, and to being perceived as a reliable partner for future cooperation. With parliamentary ratification delayed, the agreed deadline of June 30 to start the implementation of the MCC compact has already been missed. [The Kathmandu Post]
Under the MCC agreement signed in 2017, the US government agreed to provide $500 million in grants to support infrastructure projects in Nepal, while Kathmandu would chip in $130 million. However, the agreement has not yet been ratified, as sections within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) consider the compact a part of Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which is aimed at countering Chinese influence in the region. Only recently, leaders of the NCP in September agreed to amend and subsequently endorse the compact [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].
Nepal unveils new foreign policy framework
(lm) Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali on December 6 unveiled the country’s new foreign policy framework that outlines Kathmandu’s position on various bilateral and multilateral issues. In talking about economic and Track II diplomacy (backchannel diplomacy) to resolve disputes, amend bilateral treaties collaborate with friendly nations, the framework also seeks to provide a roadmap for future engagement with neighboring China and India, in particular. The document also includes a goal of non-alignment – even though the country has habitually oscillated its support between India and China in recent years. [The Kathmandu Post 1]
While crediting the Nepalese government for bringing out the document in times of global flux, foreign policy experts say the framework has several shortcomings and question the government’s capacity to implement the policies. [The Kathmandu Post 2]
Bhutan establishes diplomatic relations with Israel
(lm) Bhutan has established formal diplomatic relations with Israel, the Jewish state’s foreign ministry announced on December 12. [South China Morning Post]
Since 1949, the year Bhutan first signed a friendship agreement with neighboring India, it has been historically cautious about establishing formal diplomatic ties with other nations. Until 2008, when Bhutan conducted its first general election, it had maintained diplomatic relations with just 22 countries, which form the ‘Friends of Bhutan’ group, along with Japan, which contributes towards development projects in Bhutan. After the election of Prime Minister Jogme Thinley in 2008, then, the Bhutanese government rapidly increased its diplomatic foray, signing agreements with 31 countries in just five years.
In November, Bhutan established formal diplomatic relations with Germany, marking the first new diplomatic agreement signed by Bhutan since March 2013, when it had established ties with Oman [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. Still, Bhutan to date did not open ties with any of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), despite repeated requests from the United States and neighboring China, in particular.
Pakistan, China hold military exercise, in the wake of signing significant military MoU
A joint military exercise between the Pakistani and Chinese air forces kicked off in Pakistan on December 9, coming in the wake of the two longtime allies signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to further enhance defense cooperation between the Pakistan Army and the People's Liberation Army [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [Anadolu Agency]
While details of the pact have not been made public, analysts believe it contains new commitments to intelligence-sharing that will help Pakistan track the movements of Indian forces across their tense shared border. Hence, the signing has to be seen vis-à-vis the recently signed information-sharing pact between India and the United States, which commits both countries to provide reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensor [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. [Nikkei Asia]
Maldives’, Chinese officials trade barbs over repayment of loan
(lm) Taking to Twitter, speaker of parliament and former president Mohamed Nasheed on December 11 criticized the growing pressure that the Chinese banks are exerting on the Island nation to repay its outstanding debt. As the Maldives continues to mitigate the economic knock-on effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, he alleged that the Maldives were ‘breathing space’, with Chinese banks having refused to offer any concessions for loans maturing within the next 14 days. [OpIndia]
Responding to the allegations, China’s envoy to the Maldives initially denied that a payment was due within the next fourteen days, but had to partially retract his statement the following day. [Frontline]
In the past, Nasheed and his Maldivian Democratic Party (MPD) with incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih have been critical of the massive Chinese debt amassed under the previous regime, warning that China may take over Maldives if the archipelago fails to repay loans, for which the grace period has expired [see e.g. AiR (4/11/2018)].
Male is estimated to have accumulated $1.5 billion in debt to Beijing, equivalent to 45 percent of its national debt. China has already reduced this year’s loan repayment to $75 million from the scheduled $100 million under the G20 ‘Debt Service Suspension Initiative’, and agreed to partially suspend debt repayment applicable to $600 million in loans for a period of approximately four years [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].
Pakistan, India among the top five most dangerous countries for practice of journalism in the world
(lm) A report published by the International Federation on Journalists (IFJ), the largest union worldwide representing journalists, listed Pakistan and India among the top five ‘most dangerous countries for practice of journalism in the world’. According to the White Paper, murders of journalists in Pakistan (138) and in India (116) have featured almost every year in the ‘journalists killed list’ since 1990, making up 40 percent of the total deaths in the Asia Pacific region. [IFJ]
United States interested in development plans for Chittagong Port
(lm) During a meeting with the Chittagong Port Authority Chairman, the United States Chargé d’Affaires in Dhaka conveyed Washington’s interest in the development plans for the port, offering to provide feasibility studies, technical assistance, and pilot projects. The main seaport of Bangladesh, the port of Chittagong handles ninety percent of the country’s export-import trade, and is the core port of countries dependent on the Bay of Bengal. [Dhaka Tribune]
The meeting assumes added significance because it follows on a recent visit to Dhaka by US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun. The trip was widely interpreted as a clear sign that the United States was stepping up its efforts to entice Bangladesh into closer embrace as a key Indo-Pacific partner in South Asia at a time when China has increased engagement with countries in the region through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]
India, Nepal to form joint business forum to represent private sectors
(lm) Following in the heels of a number of high-level visits by Indian officials to Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], both countries on December 7 agreed to form a joint business forum to facilitate bilateral trade and business, and pledged to facilitate its first meeting by the first quarter of 2021. [The Kathmandu Post]
Meeting under the Nepal-India Intergovernmental Committee (IGC) led by the commerce secretaries of both countries, Nepal and India also agreed to amend a bilateral transit treaty in a bid to boost trade and connectivity. [myRepública]
India, Nepal to form joint business forum to represent private sectors
(lm) Following in the heels of a number of high-level visits by Indian officials to Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], both countries on December 7 agreed to form a joint business forum to facilitate bilateral trade and business, and pledged to facilitate its first meeting by the first quarter of 2021. [The Kathmandu Post]
Meeting under the Nepal-India Intergovernmental Committee (IGC) led by the commerce secretaries of both countries, Nepal and India also agreed to amend a bilateral transit treaty in a bid to boost trade and connectivity. [myRepública]
Myanmar, US to blacklist Chinese investor in “industrial zone”
(nd) The US added Chinese 14K triad leader Wan Kuok Koi aka “Broken Tooth”, to its sanctioned list of “corrupt actors”.
Wan, who was arrested in 1999 over his involvement in 14 murders in Macau, is a leading representative of the 14K Triad group which globally engages in organized crime with its estimated 20,000 members including drug trafficking, illegal gambling, racketeering, human trafficking and murder, in particular also in Southeast Asia. The US also added three entities owned or controlled by Wan in Cambodia, Hong Kong and Palau to the list. After Wan and similar Chinese business-crime networks were very active in Cambodia in recent years, they are now expanding in particular in Myanmar after Cambodia’s Sihanoukville became less “investment friendly” to them.
Three years ago, Chinese and Cambodian police began cracking down on Chinese firms behind internet wagering, illegal casinos, gang violence and money laundering in Cambodia’s Sihanoukville. There, the Chinese investment and in particular illegal gambling fueled a massive property bubble and pushed local population and business in a gradual Sinification out of the city. Moreover, the money laundering enterprises blossoming there, contributed to Cambodia’s increasing difficulties to get access to international finance. Growing lawlessness finally led the Cambodian government ask for Beijing’s help to rectify the situation leading to a crackdown which then prompted the affected Chinese networks to look for alternatives. Concerted efforts under the label “Saixigang Industrial Zone”, which translates roughly as “Surpass Sihanoukville”, led to huge investment projects in Myanmar’s border region to Thailand with Wan launching a part project in March this year in Kuala Lumpur in a splendid ceremony. Now, Chinese firms are building huge enclaves in Karen State along the banks of the Moei River that separates southeastern Myanmar from Thailand. There, three new cities are emerging on the lands of Burma’s ethnic Karen which were devastated by heavy combat between Myanmar’s army and Karen nationalists not long ago. After reportedly partnering up with the local rebel groups, the Chinese investors created hotels, casinos and condos in unauthorized “special economic zones”, while leaders as Wan branded the project as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative and even advertised the building of smart cities.
According to the US Treasury Department Wan’s World Hongmen History and Culture Association – established in 2018 in Cambodia and linked to the global Hongmen fraternal organization and secret society established in the mid-1600s – is running a powerful business network active in the development and launching of cryptocurrencies, real estate and operating a security company specializing in protecting BRI investments.
The recent US blacklisting is highlighting the ever-developing nexus of shady investments, organized crime, political violence and geopolitics as it has been flourishing in mainland Southeast Asia since the end of World War II, when strongmen like Thailand’s police chief Phao cooperated with the CIA to operate in neighboring countries with anti-communist rebel groups who financed themselves by their involvement in the global opium trade.
Now, the danger greatly comes from Chinese triads with excellent cross-border links spanning the region, whose activities are intertwined with the failures of domestic politics and geopolitical dynamics. [Irrawaddy] [USIP]
Philippines, US gifting military equipment
(nd) The outgoing Trump administration gives defense equipment worth US$29 million to the Philippines, reinforcing both countries’ alliance, and following previous gifts of military equipment and aid for the victims of the most recent typhoon. It is part of US strategy to counter China in the South China Sea through bilateral security cooperation. Ahead of this, an article in The Philippine Star by US Defense Secretary Christopher Miller spiked conflict with China, for invoking the 2016 Hague arbitration ruling rejecting China’s nine-dash line in the South China Sea and declaring it final and legally binding. He also supported the position of other claimant states in the disputed waters and called China’s actions coercive and destabilizing. [South China Morning Post]
Singapore, UK to sign free trade deal
(nd) The UK and Singapore signed a free trade deal, covering a value of more than $22bn (£17bn). The deal largely mirrors an existing deal between Singapore and the European Union (EU), with duties eliminated by November 2024 in both agreements. The deal forms part of a greater move by the UK to prepare the Brexit from the EU. It is the first such agreement with an ASEAN member. Britain is among Singapore’s top trading partners for goods and services globally, and its top investment destination in Europe, with historical links as a former British colony. As EU member, the UK was automatically part of EU trade deals with over 70 countries, accounting for 11% of total UK trade. [BBC]
ASEAN, US relations: challenges and prospects
(nd) A recent report analyzes the challenges for the incoming Biden administration to enhance US ties with Southeast Asian nations. The report sees a great deal of skepticism in the region with regards to the US commitment and wariness of China’s reaction. China has immense strategic interests in the region and advanced to become its major investor through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Such investments, although seen in all their ambiguity by many local observers, are badly needed by the region’s Covid-19-shaken economies. Also, militarily China is increasingly present in the region according to the report and demonstrated its willingness to use force when it comes to its geopolitical interests. The new administration’s call for multilateral engagement is therefore understood by the authors as a call to active participation with ASEAN nations rather than an attempt to develop US leadership as too much engagement is seen as potentially triggering more aggressive counter-moves by China. Given these obstacles, a revival of US-ASEAN ties requires a clear vision and assessment of limitations, patience and political will according the report. [East Asia Forum]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
16 December 2020 @ 2:00-4:15 pm ICT, CPG/Hanns Seidel Foundation, Thailand
Asia in Review (AiR) online panel discussion
Constitutionalism in Crisis? The Path ahead for Southeast Asia
This moderated online discussion will explore the current state and the prospects of constitutionalism in Southeast Asia, taking also into account the impact the coronavirus pandemic and external factors such as great power rivalry in Asia and China’s growing global efforts to win support for its authoritarian model of ‘output’-oriented governance and legitimacy.
More about the event at [CPG].
16 December 2020 @ 4:30-6:30 pm ICT, CPG/Hanns Seidel Foundation, Thailand
Asia in Review (AiR) online panel discussion
Social Values and Diversity in Southeast Asia
The growing LGBTI community in many countries in Southeast Asia and the will to be able to live freely according to individual sexual preferences is ever increasing. What does this mean for Asian Values of familism, communalism, authority orientations, and work ethic. Do new aspects of diversity, be it socially or sexually, challenge Asian Values? With regards to sexual diversity, do changing norms threaten any of the four dimensions of the concept of Asian values? If so, more broadly, does that mean there is an irreconcilable juxtaposition between Asian Values and a Western notion of freedom? These and related topics will be part of this moderated panel discussion.
Further details of the event can be found at [CPG].
18 December 2020 @ 3:00-5:30 pm ICT, CPG/Hanns Seidel Foundation, Thailand
Asia in Review (AiR) online panel discussion
The Future of the Personal Self. Digitalization and You after the Lockdown
The current rapid pace of technological change creates enormous uncertainties. Critically evaluating the role of digital media during the pandemic, this online event seeks explanations that help us better understand our current digital condition and shape the future.
More informationen about the online discussion are available at [CPG].
16 December 2020 @ 12:00 pm EDT, Hudson Institute, United States
Partnering in the Indo Pacific
Considering the US and India’s shared interests as well as European countries’ increased engagement in the region, this virtual expert panel will assess the situation in the Indo Pacific with a key focus on India’s role.
For more information and registration, please visit [Hudson Institute].
16 December 2020 @ 2:00 pm CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
NATO in a multipolar world
This webinar discusses the role of the NATO in a world of revived geopolitical competition with a focus on the potential of the transatlantic alliance. Translation into English from Bulgarian will be available on Zoom.
If you wish to join this webinar, please follow [ECFR] for more information and registration details.
16/18 December 2020 @ 2:00 pm CET, The Egmont Institute, Belgium
Belgium in the UN Security Council 2019-2020: The Security Situation in the Sahel / Children in Armed Conflict
Against the backdrop of the near end of
Belgium’s two-year membership of the UN Security Council, this series of three webinars assesses Belgium’s achievements, identifies lessons to be learned, and formulates new ambitions.
The webinars on 16 and 18 December will discuss The Security Situation in the Sahel and Children in Armed Conflict, respectively.
For further information, please visit [Egmont] and [Egmont].
16 December 2020 @ 8:00 pm BRT, FGV RI, Brazil
Defense Policy-Making in Japan
This webinar invites Prof. Takako Hikotani, Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy at Columbia University to discuss Defense Policy-Making in Japan. The event will be held in English.
For more information and registration details, please visit [FGV].
16 December 2020 @ 9:00 am EST, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, USA
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: military lessons for middle powers
This webinar aims to shed light on the potential lessons to be learned from the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh for the force planning of middle powers.
Please find registration details here: [IISS]
17 December 2020 @ 9:30 am IST, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, India
CLAWS-NIICE Second Annual Dialogue – Soft Power Dimension: India-Nepal Relations
This webinar explores soft power dynamics between the two countries, considering 1) the historical and civilizational aspects of the relationship and how the centrality of these aspects is being affected by economic and political factors prevalent in these countries and the region at large, 2) the role played by military diplomacy in the broader relations, 3) future opportunities for cooperation on matters of climate change and disaster management and 4) religious tourism.
For more information, please visit [CLAWS].
17 December 2020 @ 11:00 am CET, ResPublica, United Kingdom
Beyond the failures of liberal feminism
Assuming that progress is not linear and that the liberal doctrine of feminism is not necessarily the answer to the problems women face today, a group of feminist thinkers working in the UK will discuss the failures of liberal feminism, and what a new form of post-feminism might look like.
If you wish to join this online event, please visit [ResPublica] for more information and registration.
17 December 2020 @ 12:00 pm ET, Center for American Progress, United States
Ocean Climate Action: Looking to the Ocean for Climate Solutions
This panel organized by the Center for American Progress, the League of Conservation Voters, and the Ocean Defense Initiative discusses the future of ocean climate action – specifically, the ocean climate nexus and how to build momentum to implement solutions – with former US EPA administrator Carol Browner and other experts and stakeholders. You can also submit any questions you might have.
For more information, please visit [American Progress].
17 December 2020 @ 2:00 pm CET, Clingendael, The Netherlands
NATO’s strategic reflection after the US election
This webinar aims to discuss the effects of the US presidential election on the future of the trans-Atlantic Alliance, considering effects on the NATO, trans-Atlantic relations, and Europe’s strategy from a Polish and Dutch perspective.
If you are interested in this webinar, please see [Clingendael].
17 December 2020 @ 1:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium
A Green Industrial Policy for Europe
Against the backdrop of Europe’s Green Deal and the union’s need to develop a strong green industrial policy, this webinar asks: What should Europe’s strategy look like and how can we achieve it? Two scholars of the institute will also launch a blueprint on the topic with the same name.
For further information, please visit [Bruegel].
17 December 2020 @ 4:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan
Repression and Resilience: COVID-19 Response Measures and Migrant Workers’ Rights in Major East and Southeast Asian Destinations
This online event asks: Can the COVID-19 pandemic bring about a transformation towards more inclusive governance of migrant workers regardless of their status? It examines this question by assessing the impact of pre-existing migration policies and COVID-19 public health measures, often based on strong national interests, on migrant workers, by exploring how vulnerabilities translate to real-life experiences of migrant workers, and by examining how state and non-state actors, including businesses and civil society, are dealing with challenges faced by migrant workers. It aims to amplify voices of those who are most affected.
If you wish to join this event, please visit [SPF] for more information and registration.
17 December 2020 @ 6:00 pm CET, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy
Africa’s Thorny Horn
This virtual round table builds on a recent report with the same name, asking: How are ongoing dynamics in Ethiopia impacting the region’s political and security prospects? What trajectories are other states in the area following? How are their external – regional as well as non-African – relations evolving?
For more information and registration, please visit [ISPI].
18 December 2020 @ 4:00 pm JST, The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan
Beyond coal – Towards net-zero emissions: A common challenge for Japan and Germany
This online event brings together high-level government representatives, businesses, think tanks, and NGOs from Japan, Germany, and other countries to discuss questions such as: What does a net-zero emissions pledge mean for the coal sector? What role can renewables and hydrogen play in domestic and overseas markets? How can Japan and Germany collaborate and encourage other countries to decarbonize, as part of their technology export strategies?
Registration is required and closed once capacity is reached.
For more information, please follow [IGES].
17-18 December, 2020 @ 9:30 am - 12:30 pm IST, University of West England, UK
Online International Knowledge Conclave on Green Infrastructure
From an integrated multidisciplinary perspective this conclave seeks to articulate research tools and dissemination activities to understand how the 'Green Infrastructure' and ‘Blue-Green spaces’ in towns and cities can affect health and wellbeing as well as help in making water sensitive and resilient urban settlements.
Please find registration details here: [CSEINDIA]
18 December 2020 @ 11:00 -11:45 am EDT, The Heritage Foundation, Washington DC, USA
Criticism of Israel or Jew-Hatred? Recognizing Modern Anti-Semitism
This online conversation deals with modern anti-Semitism, anti-Israel rhetoric, and the role of the IHRA in combatting both.
Please find registration details here: [Heritage]
21 December 2020 @ 10:00-11:15 am SGT, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
The Islamic Defenders Front and Political Polarization in Indonesia
In this webinar, Dr Quinton Temby analyses these recent developments, drawing on social media data to illustrate how Rizieq’s return has played into online polarization between government and opposition activists.
Please find registration details here: [ISEAS]
21 December 2020 @ 4:00 pm IST, Observe Research Foundation, India
National League for Democracy’s second term in Myanmar
The November elections in Myanmar witnessed the reinstatement of National League for Democracy (NLD) party for the second term. In contrast to the wave of optimism that greeted the NLD’s landslide victory in 2015, the elections this year were held amidst surging COVID-19 outbreak, mounting ethnic conflicts and economic hardship.
Please find registration details here: [ORF]
22 December, 2020 @ 10:00-11:30 am SGT, ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
After the Vote, What’s Next?
In the general election held on 8 November 2020, Myanmar’s electorate returned the National League for Democracy (NLD) government with a resounding mandate. This webinar will hear perspectives of four researchers on the economy and politics, the needs of society (especially vulnerable populations), peace and reconciliation, and ethnic aspirations
Please find registration details here: [ISEAS]
22 December 2020 @ 2:00-3:00 pm ET, American Enterprise Institute, Washington DC, USA
Are the world’s central banks running out of road?
This event considers how much ammunition the world’s central banks have in their arsenals to support the recovery now and in the future. The panelists also discuss what might be the appropriate balance between monetary and fiscal policy to minimize global financial market risks.
Please find registration details here: [AEI]
Recent book releases
Judd Dunnning, 13 1/2 Reasons Why Not to be a Liberal: And How to Enlighten Others, Humanix Books, November 10, 2020, 317 Pages, reviewed in [blogternator].
William G. Thomas III, A Question of Freedom: The Families Who Challenged Slavery from the Nation’s Founding to the Civil War, Yale University Press, November 24, 2020, 432 pages, reviewed in [New York Times].
Pete Hegseth, Modern Warriors: Real Stories from Real Heroes, Broadside Books, November 24, 2020, 288 pages, with a review in [Holy City Sinner].
Calls
The Gujarat National Law University (GNLU) invites to summit paper for the GNLU Law Review, Vol. VIII. The deadline for submission is 31 January, 2021. For more details, see [LiveLaw.in]
The College of Europe calls for papers submissions for its international conference "The EU and China Beyond 2020: Setting A New Agenda for Cooperation", to be held on 17 April 2020 at College of Europe, in Bruges. Closing date for submissions is 12 January 2020. For more information, see [College of Europe].
The Council of Europe calls for tenders for the provision of consultancy services on the inclusion of Roma at local and regional level in North Macedonia. Deadline for tendering is 12 January 2021. More at [Council of Europe].
Jobs & positions
Nuffield College, University of Oxford, offers a position of Postdoctoral Researcher for its research on "History of Slavery in the City of London." The closing date for application is 11 January 2021. For more details, see [University of Oxford]
History Associates is seeking a Research Historian to conduct extensive primary and secondary source research. Closing date of application is 27 January, 2021. For more information about the offer, see [H-Net].
The International Organization for Migration invites to submit applications for the position of a Communications Officer (Migration Data). Closing date for applications is 3 January 2021. Further details are available at [IOM].
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