Coronavirus Daily Brief - October 7, 2020, Brief Issue 101

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October 7, 2020 - Brief Issue 101

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Top Headlines

Vaccine News: WHO Director Believes a Vaccine Could Be Ready By Year’s End; Moderna Vaccine Trial Faces Slowdown After Failing to Enroll Enough Minority Participants; White House Blocks New FDA Guidelines on Emergency Vaccine Approval (Health & Science)

Top Military Leaders Self-Quarantine After a Coast Guard Service Chief Tests Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Facebook, Twitter Restrict False Trump Post Comparing Coronavirus and Flu (U.S. Government & Politics)

Trump Says He Looks Forward to Debate as Expected to Isolate in the White House; Pence Agrees to Plexiglass Barrier for VP Debate; White House Cluster Expands as Stephen Miller Tests Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Italy Set To Make Mask-Wearing Mandatory (Around the World)

Malaysia Sees Record Rise in Daily New Cases (Around the World)

Iran Reports Another Day of Record New Cases (Around the World)

Israel Extends Controversial Protest Restrictions (Around the World)

Fed Chairman Powell Urges Congress and the White House to Step Up with Additional Economic Relief; Trump Says He Will Suspend Stimulus Negotiations Until After Election (U.S. Economy)

Ski Resorts Prepare to Open Safely for the Coming Season (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,501,847 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 210,918 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,952,390 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 10,646,837 tests. Worldwide, there have been 35,849,421 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,050,507 deaths. At least 25,000,644 people have recovered from the virus.

World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated on Tuesday that a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year (Reuters). The director did not elaborate, other than to urge leaders to ensure equal distribution once the vaccine becomes available. Researchers around the world are working to develop a safe, effective vaccine for Covid-19. There are currently 11 candidate vaccines in Phase 3 clinical trials, where vaccines are monitored on a large scale for safety and efficacy (Guardian, NYT).

A vaccine being developed by U.S. biotech company Moderna in partnership with the National Institutes of Health, which entered Phase 3 testing in July (NYT), faces a slowdown after failing to enroll enough Black, Latino, and Native American participants (Reuters). Despite the enrollment slowdown, Moderna still intends to seek an Emergency Use Authorization and hopes to inoculate high-risk populations, such as hospital workers, as early as November. The company has said that they will release data on a more diverse population in early 2021, pending further enrollment and testing. Dr. Moncef Slaoui, senior director for the U.S. Covid-19 vaccine initiative known as Operation Warp Speed, commented, “Developing a vaccine that is not used in a fraction of the population is the same as having no vaccine.”

In the United States, the White House is blocking new guidelines released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding emergency release of a vaccine (NYT). The FDA guidelines would likely mean no vaccine would be approved in time for the November 3 general election. In an effort to ensure the safety and efficacy of any vaccine approved for emergency use, the FDA intends to share the guidelines with an outside expert advisory board which will meet publicly before any vaccine approval. White House opposition to stricter safety and efficacy guidelines comes at a time when public trust in a vaccine is already tenuous: according to the Pew Research Center, only 51% of U.S. adults surveyed in September said they would probably or definitely get the vaccine if it were available, compared to 72% in May.

U.S. Government & Politics

Top Military Leaders Self-Quarantine After a Coast Guard Service Chief Tests Positive

On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that top military leaders are self-quarantining after Coast Guard Vice Commandant Adm. Charles Ray tested positive for coronavirus on Monday after having had symptoms over the weekend (CNN, CNBC, Guardian). Admiral Ray had participated in meetings including with members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff last week. A defense official told CNBC that the “Chairman, Vice Chairman, and all Joint Chiefs have been tested and tested negative.” In an email statement, the Pentagon said, “Out of an abundance of caution, all potential close contacts from these meetings are self-quarantining and have been tested this morning.”

Facebook, Twitter Restrict False Trump Post Comparing Coronavirus and Flu

On Tuesday, Trump, having returned to the White House, tweeted a misleading comparison of coronavirus to flu (Politico, WaPo). The tweet read, “Flu season is coming up! Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!.” As Politico notes, “In fact, the most deaths to have resulted from a flu season in the U.S. over the past decade is estimated to be roughly 61,000 in 2017-2018, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — well below the president’s claim of 100,000 or more.” Twitter restricted viewership of the Tweet with a notice saying it, “violated the Twitter Rules about spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to COVID-19. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible.” Facebook removed an identical post that Trump made on that platform (CNN).

Trump Says He Looks Forward to Debate as Expected to Isolate in the White House; Pence Agrees to Plexiglass Barrier for VP Debate; White House Cluster Expands as Stephen Miller Tests Positive

On Tuesday, having returned to the White House, where he is currently expected to be isolating, said he looks forward to debating Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden (WSJ, NYT). The debate is currently scheduled for October 15. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh, asked whether the president’s attendance was contingent on him testing negative before then, said the campaign would rely on the president’s medical team.” Generally, patients are expected to isolate for 10 days following the onset of symptoms. According to his physician Dr. Sean Conley, Trump demonstrated no symptoms on Tuesday, having been released from the Hospital on Monday. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, many outside infectious disease experts are skeptical of Trump’s release from the hospital and the White House’s portrayal of his condition. Bonus Read: The People Trump Came Home To,” (Atlantic).

On Tuesday, Politico reported that Vice President Michael Pence had acceded to demands from Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Senator Kamala Harris for tonight's debate between the two to feature plexiglass as a coronavirus protection measure (Politico). Pence’s team had previously opposed such a barrier viewing it as unnecessary.

Also on Tuesday, the known extent of the White House cluster of coronavirus cases continued to expand as Stephen Miller, a top White House adviser, confirmed that he had tested positive (CNN). Miller stated, “Over the last 5 days I have been working remotely and self-isolating, testing negative every day through yesterday. Today, I tested positive for COVID-19 and am in quarantine.” According to a count by Politico, at least 34 people tied to the cluster have tested positive (Politico).

Biden Expands Lead in Poll Conducted After Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test

Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden expanded his lead to 16 points in a new CNN poll conducted following Trump’s testing positive for coronavirus, leading the President 57% to 41% (CNN). Among the issues Biden outperforms Trump on in the poll is coronavirus where voters prefer him to Trump 59% to 38%. In the poll, Biden gained among multiple demographics including women, young people, and people of color compared to a previous poll of registered voters last month.

Around the World

Europe

Italy Set To Make Mask-Wearing Mandatory

Italian authorities will likely order all people to wear masks in public, Health Minister Roberto Speranza told lawmakers Tuesday, among other new public health measures in a bid to contain new clusters of the coronavirus. “Italy is, together with Germany, among the big European countries the one which is holding up better to this second wave but we must not have any illusions,” Speranza said in a speech to the lower house of parliament. “We are not out of danger,” he added. New limits on social gatherings are also likely to be implemented, said Speranza. Italy is currently faring better than other European nations, with around 45 new cases per 100,000 people while France has 246 and Spain has 320. It has seen around 330,000 cases since the start of the pandemic and 36,030 deaths (Bloomberg).

Belgium Tightens Public Health Rules, Limits Gatherings to Four People

Belgians will only be allowed to meet in groups of no more than four from Friday onward, authorities announced Tuesday. The rules apply both in public and inside homes. People will also have to limit contacts with whom they regularly meet without social distancing to three. Under the previous rules, groups of up to 10 could meet while Belgians were allowed to choose five contacts with whom they did not have to socially distance. Belgian Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said he understood that the new rules would not necessarily be popular. “People are tired, we know, but we are going to again ask for an effort for our children, so they can keep going to school, for our businesses, so they can keep functioning and so that people don’t lose their jobs,” said Vandenbroucke (Reuters). Belgium has one of the world’s highest COVID-19 fatality rates, with 10,078 dead in a country of 11 million people. Its average daily new infection rate last week was 2,309 cases, a 48 percent increase over the previous week (Brussels Times).

Three UK Universities Halt In-Person Teaching Amid Campus Spikes

Three major British universities announced halts to in-person teaching on Tuesday as the UK’s plans to reopen higher education appeared to unravel two weeks after the start of the new academic year. The University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University, both located in one of the UK’s hardest-hit cities, along with the University of Sheffield announced that they would stop in-person teaching amid growing coronavirus clusters on their campuses. At least 5,000 cases have been confirmed at more than 80 universities, with the University of Manchester alone reporting more than 1,000 infections. At Newcastle’s Northumbria University, which has seen 770 confirmed cases, staff voted to hold a strike ballot while also calling for the resignation of the vice-chancellor. The UK reported 14,542 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, up 2,000 from the day before, and 76 deaths (Guardian).

Bonus Reads: “Manchester Students Organizing 'Covid Positive' Parties,” (Guardian); “Europe’s Second COVID-19 Wave Starts to Spill Over From Young to Old,” (WSJ).

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia Sees Record Rise in Daily New Cases

Malaysia saw its biggest daily rise yet in new cases on Tuesday, one day after another record-setting day amid an intensifying coronavirus spike. A total of 691 new cases were tallied, bringing the total number of active cases to 2,936, also a record number. Like much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia had fared relatively well during the pandemic’s early months until case numbers began spiking in September. Speaking on Tuesday, Health Ministry Director-General Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah sought to reassure Malaysians by pointing out that 394 of the new cases registered on Tuesday came from a cluster in Kedah state centered around a prison. Consequently, he said, the general public was shielded from a large chunk of the spike. A total of nine regions have been designated “red zones,” with Klang, part of the Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area, added on Tuesday (Malaysiakini). Despite the rising numbers, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who is currently under quarantine after coming into contact with a minister who tested positive on Monday, said he is not currently considering a nationwide tightening of public health restrictions. “As of today, we are not thinking of implementing a nationwide movement control order (MCO) or a total lockdown,” the prime minister said Tuesday. “If we implement an MCO again, this could lead to the collapse of the social and economic systems of the country,” he added (Straits Times).

Kathmandu Runs Out of Intensive Care Beds and Ventilators Amid Coronavirus Surge

Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley has run out of intensive care beds and ventilators as an outbreak surges in the capital. “Intensive care unit beds and ventilators available in the valley have been fully occupied for the last four days,” Dr. Santa Kumar Das, coordinator of COVID-19 management team of Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, told the Kathmandu Post. Kathmandu is at the epicenter of Nepal’s coronavirus outbreak, with 1,531 of the 2,440 new cases reported on Tuesday detected in the valley. The government has painted a similarly bleak picture, with Dr Samir Kumar Adhikari, a health ministry spokesman, admitting that beds and ventilators will be available “lower than the proportion of the rising number of cases” even after new ones are added to the system. “People will be deprived of basic health services if cases rise at the current pace,” he said. Nepal, which never saw a day with more than 1,000 new cases before the ongoing spike began in August, has reported a total of 90,814 cases and 563 deaths since the pandemic’s beginning (Kathmandu Post).

Middle East

Iran Reports Another Day of Record New Cases

Iran reported a record 4,151 new infections Tuesday, the second consecutive day to top a previous record. The situation in Tehran is especially bad even as authorities closed schools, libraries, mosques, theaters, coffee shops and other institutions over the weekend. Most of Iran’s 31 other provinces are also under the maximum alert level as leaders mull the next step, with officials in Tehran indicating that masks will be mandatory in public in the capital from Saturday. The record-setting days come shortly after last Wednesday and Thursday also saw back-to-back highs in the daily new case count. With a total of 479,825 cases and 27,419 deaths since the pandemic’s beginning, Iran remains the Middle East’s hardest-hit country by the pandemic (Al Jazeera).

Israel Extends Controversial Protest Restrictions

The cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has extended restrictions on protests for another week. The rules, which went into effect last week in response to surging coronavirus cases, restrict protesting to within a one kilometer radius of demonstrators’ homes. Critics accuse Netanyahu of using the pandemic as an excuse to crack down on dissent, especially at the weekend protests at Netanyahu’s residence that have become a regular event in recent months. Clashes have erupted in the past week between the Black Flag protesters, as they are called, and police as demonstrators defied the restrictions. But opposition to the rules is not shared by Netanyahu’s political rivals in the Knesset, with the opposition Blue and White coalition maintaining support for the restrictions. The coalition indicated, however, that it may not support next week’s renewal of the protest prohibitions if case numbers go down. The pandemic arrived during a politically sensitive time for Netanyahu, who is facing corruption charges. His handling of the pandemic has also come under fire, with 65 percent of respondents describing the premier’s coronavirus response as poor in a recent poll (Jerusalem Post).

Bonus Read: “Can Israel's Army Succeed Where Its Politicians Have Failed and Beat COVID-19?” (Haaretz).

U.S. Economy

Fed Chairman Powell Urges Congress and the White House to Step Up with Additional Economic Relief; Trump Says He Will Suspend Stimulus Negotiations Until After Election

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called for increased economic support from Congress and the White House, warning that “too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship.” Despite ongoing attempts and negotiations, Democrats and Republicans have been unable to agree on an additional stimulus package to address issues including unemployment, budget deficits at local and state governments, struggling small businesses, and evictions. Powell applauded the $3 trillion package passed by Congress in May and the Fed’s fiscal policy measures in negating recessionary dynamics. However, he warned that if left unaddressed, a continued economic downturn could further distort wealth inequality and create lasting difficulties for businesses and workers (WSJ, CNN, WaPo).

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Trump tweeted that he had halted negotiations over a potential stimulus deal with Congress until after the election (CNN, NYT). Trump tweeted, “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.” The comments surprised many lawmakers as Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin had been meeting with lawmakers on the issue. Even so, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he supported Trump’s decision. However, in other tweets on Tuesday, Trump urged Congress to pass support for airlines and small businesses, saying he would sign it (CNN).

Amazon’s Call to Pool Resources on COVID-19 Best Practices Goes Unanswered

Amazon last week urged other companies to share best practices on Covid-19 monitoring efforts, but the effort has thus far been unsuccessful. Companies find the sharing of information burdensome, and are already bogged down by government mandated regulations and criticism around the handling of the pandemic. Amazon has been widely criticized for outbreaks amongst employees, and last week announced over 19,000 Amazon employees tested positive for coronavirus. The company justified the ask, saying: “Wide availability of data would allow us to benchmark our progress and share best practices across businesses and industries.” Companies including Walmart, FedEx, and UnitedHealth Group declined to comply with Amazon’s request, citing adequate internal testing measures and seeing no value in the sharing of data around the virus (WSJ).

Real Estate Market Suffers Lasting Blow with Increase of Commercial Property Foreclosures and Decrease in Office Space Demand

Commercial properties continue to suffer as the pandemic continues, leading to a spike in property foreclosures and dramatic drops in demand for office space. At the start of the pandemic, many companies deferred loan payments in hopes that the virus would be under control in a few months. However, the continued economic downturn has made lenders less flexible with debt forbearance, resulting in foreclosures at commercial properties throughout the nation including Chicago’s Palmer House Hilton hotel and luxury New York City apartment complexes. CEO of NAI Global Jay Olshonsky says foreclosures will likely continue to increase due to coronavirus, and predicts the situation to be “far worse” than after the 2008 recession. The most vulnerable businesses include hotels, malls, restaurants, and increasingly apartment buildings, as tenants struggle to pay rent (WSJ).

Office spaces in San Francisco are following similar patterns, as technology companies cancel leases and embrace virtual work. Office rents in the city are down 4% from March to September, and new lease deals fell by 81% in the third quarter compared to 2019. The sustained threat from coronavirus has slowed the signing of new leases, and even drove Pinterest Inc. to pay $89.5 million to back out of a lease deal. Many tech companies plan to continue decentralizing their workforces, and are pursuing more flexible and creative solutions to occupy preexisting office spaces (WSJ).

Job Market Recovery Loses Momentum in September

The number of job postings in the U.S. dropped by 0.3% in September compared to August, reflecting a loss in demand across job sectors. As we previously reported, March saw a drastic decrease of available jobs as coronavirus spread throughout the country. Employment gains seen in the early summer now appear to be leveling off with only 661,000 jobs added in September, according to the Department of Labor. Other economic measures signal a slow recovery, including a decrease in household income and slow growth in consumer spending. Service sectors including dentistry are recovering faster since individuals can book and postpone appointments, although restaurants continue to struggle. High-wage positions are recovering more slowly than others, as technology and finance firms tend to fill these positions based on long-term economic outlooks (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Ski Resorts Prepare to Open Safely for the Coming Season

Ski resorts are preparing extensive protocols to keep guests safe from the virus as the winter ski season quickly approaches. According to the Wall Street Journal, resorts will require customers to wear masks, with many providing increased outdoor seating, spaced out lift lines, and advanced ticketing. Resorts including Aspen and Big Sky Resort plan to be flexible depending on the state of coronavirus, and are prepared to escalate safety measures as needed. Vail is offering priority access to exclusive pass holders at its resorts throughout the country. CEO of Vail Resorts Rob Katz said “It will be a little different from before. But it will also be very different from being stuck in your house” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Jennifer Senior examines Fox News’ coronavirus coverage (NYT).

Ross Douthat argues that liberal opposition to reopening schools may reflect a separation between anti-racist rhetoric and its material impacts (NYT).

Eugene Scott writes that Trump’s apparent fearlessness about the virus is underwritten by the type of health care only he can get (WaPo).

In a photo essay, Alan Chin examines the impact of the pandemic on New York’s Chinatown (Nation).

Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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