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October 6, 2020 - Brief Issue 100

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Today’s brief marks the 100th issue of New America and ASU’s Coronavirus Daily Brief since it began publication in March 2020. You can find an archive of previous briefs here.

Top Headlines

U.S. Sees Cases Tick Upwards After August Declines (Health & Science)

New Paper-Based COVID Test Developed in India (Health & Science)

Trump Leaves Hospital, Drawing Outside Expert Criticism; White House Cluster Expands as Press Secretary Tests Positive; Melania Trump Tweets Update on Condition (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York Governor Cuomo Refuses to Allow Closure of Non-Essential Businesses (U.S. Government & Politics)

10 Percent of World’s Population May Have Been Infected, Says WHO (Around the World)

European Cases Continue to Rise (Around the World)

UK Misses Almost 16,000 Coronavirus Cases Due to Digital Error (Around the World)

New Public Health Restrictions Introduced in Iceland (Around the World)

Iran Goes Into Lockdown Amid Record New Cases (Around the World)

Pandemic Pushes Lebanon’s Hospitals ‘To Brink’ (Around the World)

U.S. Service Industry Shows Signs of Recovery, But Europe and Asia Provide Warning Signs (U.S. Economy)

Regal Cinemas Suspends U.S. Operations (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,458,982 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 210,196 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,935,142 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 108,831,227 tests. Worldwide, there have been 35,519,101 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,044,633 deaths. At least 24,777,139 people have recovered from the virus. 

U.S. Sees Cases Tick Upwards After August Declines

After a steady decline in the daily case count throughout August, numbers are ticking upward again. Over the past week, the average daily case count has risen six percent compared to two weeks ago (NYT). Much of this increase is attributed to rising cases in Midwestern states, including Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Montana. Cases in Nevada and Texas are also trending upward again after several weeks of declining daily counts. A cluster of East Coast states, including New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, still have low numbers but have seen a recent uptick in cases (NYT, Johns Hopkins). 

The United States reported 35,504 new cases on Sunday, the lowest figure in a week (WSJ). However, reported cases often dip over the weekend and rise midweek. The seven-day average, reported at 43,586 new cases per day, is a more accurate measure of case count (NYT).

New Paper-Based Covid Test Developed in India

A laboratory in India has produced a rapid, inexpensive, and effective paper-based test for COVID-19. The test was approved September 19 by the Drugs Controller General of India, India’s federal drug authority (CNN). Currently, the test is only approved for laboratory use, but its developers hope it could soon be administered as a simple home test. The test requires a nasal swab, but results can be obtained in an hour or less. The test is based on a technology known as CRISPR, which can precisely and accurately detect specific gene sequences. If the test detects coronavirus genetic information, it produces a color readout: two blue lines means positive, and one blue line means negative, similar to a home pregnancy test. Importantly, the test is highly accurate, with a false negative rate of only 4 percent. This contrasts with a 20 percent false negative for antibody tests, currently the most common rapid detection test. The test comes at a critical time for India, which is hard-hit and faces steeply rising cases (BBC).

CDC Confirms Airborne Transmission

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated their Web page Monday to acknowledge that coronavirus can occasionally spread through airborne transmission (CDC, WaPo). Previously, the agency has maintained that the virus spread only through larger droplets; this information has been used to create physical distancing guidelines. Now, a better understanding of the virus has led the CDC to amend their previous statements. According to the CDC, the virus can infect people at a greater distance than 6 feet, and may remain in the air even after an infected individual has left the area. The agency has been careful to note that known cases of airborne transmission have occurred in enclosed, poorly-ventilated areas, and that distancing and wearing masks remain highly effective measures for stopping the spread of the virus. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Trump Leaves Hospital, Drawing Outside Expert Criticism; White House Cluster Expands as Press Secretary Tests Positive; Melania Trump Tweets Update on Condition

On Monday evening, Trump left Walter Reed Medical Center where he was undergoing treatment after testing positive for coronavirus and returned to the White House (NYT). In a video, he stated, “As your leader, I had to do that. I knew there’s danger to it, but I had to do it. I stood out front. I led. Nobody that’s a leader would not do what I did. And I know there’s a risk, there’s a danger, but that’s OK. And now I’m better and maybe I’m immune, I don’t know. But don’t let it dominate your lives.” White House Physician Dr. Sean P. Conley said that Trump “may not entirely be out of the woods yet,” adding, “We all remain cautiously optimistic and on guard because we’re in a bit of uncharted territory when it comes to a patient that received the therapies he has so early in the course.” Doctors said that Trump’s blood oxygen levels were normal despite falling twice earlier and that he had 72 hours without a fever.

Trump’s departure from the hospital has drawn criticism from outside infectious disease experts who warn that he likely remains in a vulnerable state, according to the Washington Post (WaPo). Rochelle Walensky, the chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital, told the Post, “My impression is they are telling us everything that is of good news and limiting everything that is not perfect.” Robert Wachter, who charis the University of California at San Francisco’s department of medicine, told the Post that a patient in Trump’s situation would generally need to sign out of the hospital against doctors’ orders. He stated, “For someone sick enough to have required remdesivir and dexamethasone, I can’t think of a situation in which a patient would be okay to leave on day three, even with the White House’s medical capacity.” William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, agreed, telling the Post “absolutely not” regarding his impression of the plan to discharge Trump on Monday, adding, “I will bet dollars to doughnuts it’s the president and his political aides who are talking about discharge, not his doctors.” The current medical consensus is that patients remain in a particularly vulnerable condition for at least a week after they display symptoms.

Meanwhile, the number of known cases in the White House cluster continues to expand. On Monday, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced that she had tested positive for coronavirus (WSJ, CNBC, Politico). She said she had previously tested negative multiple times. Two of her deputies have also tested positive. The Journal lists others who have tested positive including: “Bill Stepien, presidential aide Hope Hicks, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former adviser Kellyanne Conway and director of Oval Office operations Nick Luna.” According to a count by CNN, at least 13 people close to President Trump have tested positive (CNN).

Also on Monday, First Lady Melania Trump tweeted an update on her condition (Fox). She tweeted, “My family is grateful for all of the prayers & support! I am feeling good & will continue to rest at home. Thank you to medical staff & caretakers everywhere, & my continued prayers for those who are ill or have a family member impacted by the virus.”

New York Governor Cuomo Refuses to Allow Closure of Non-Essential Businesses

As we covered in yesterday’s brief, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio requested permission to close schools and non-essential businesses in nine COVID-19 hotspots that arose in Brooklyn and Queens. However, Governor Cuomo refused to grant this permission, instead ordering public and private schools to close beginning Tuesday (NYT). Cuomo contended that zip codes were not accurate enough to pinpoint outbreaks but did not take business closures off the table, should a more accurate picture of the hotspots emerge (NY Post).

U.S. Coronavirus Relief Already Costs More than Afghan War; Most Funds Went to Businesses

According to a Washington Post analysis, the U.S. has already spent more on coronavirus relief than it has spent on the war in Afghanistan with much of the money going to big businesses (WaPo). According to the Post, the United States has already spent $4 trillion with $2.3 trillion going to businesses. About a fifth of the total went to workers and families, and 16 percent went to efforts to fight the virus. 

Bonus Read: “Coronavirus Upends GOP Plans for Speedy Barrett Confirmation Process,” (CNN). 

Around the World

10 Percent of World’s Population May Have Been Infected, Says WHO

Ten percent of the world’s population may have already been infected with the coronavirus, the World Health Organization estimated on Monday. The new estimate, which amounts to 750 million people, is far higher than official tallies by WHO and Johns Hopkins that place the number around 35 million cases. Dr. Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman, said the new estimate was based on global antibody studies detecting evidence of past infection. She added that the apparently high number of asymptomatic cases suggests that the virus has ample opportunity to spread undetected. Dr. Michael Ryan, head of emergencies at WHO, said at a Monday meeting that while figures vary between different regions and demographics, “the vast majority of the world remains at risk,” with the situation looking bleakest in Europe, Southeast Asia and the eastern Mediterranean (AP).

Europe

European Cases Continue to Rise

Health officials in Europe are concerned about a fresh outbreak of cases across the continent as the rise in cases continues. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has set an alarm threshold at 20 new cases per day per 100,000. Currently, only Germany, Finland, Cyprus and Norway are below this threshold (CNN). The recent outbreaks have prompted renewed emergency measures in Paris, Madrid and throughout the Czech Republic, where a new state of emergency went into effect on Monday. As we have previously reported, the situation in Spain has induced political turmoil as Madrid city authorities fight back against new restrictions imposed by the national government. On the other side of the English channel, Ireland has declined to return to full lockdown despite recommendations from the national public health emergency team, instead opting for a less restrictive regime of new rules (Guardian).

UK Misses Almost 16,000 Coronavirus Cases Due to Digital Error

Nearly 16,000 coronavirus cases were left out of the UK’s official data due to a computer glitch. Public Health England reported that 15,841 cases between September 25 and October 2 were left out of daily figures in a glitch that, according to the agency, has since been resolved. While the people who tested positive themselves were informed, contact tracers were uninformed of the new cases and were unable to follow up with people in close contact with new patients. Owing to the delay, Saturday and Sunday saw record-shattering new daily case counts of 12,872 and 22,961 respectively as the old data was incorporated into the official tally. The news provoked an angry response from the Labour Party's shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth. "This is shambolic and people across the country will be understandably alarmed,” he said. BBC health and science correspondent James Gallagher said the virus had likely been spread unnecessarily as a result of the blunder. “The real fallout of the weekend's statistical chaos is not the numbers, but the people who should have been contact-traced, told to quarantine and instead may have been unwittingly passing on the virus,” he said. Even without the missing data, the UK was already experiencing its highest new daily counts since April, with 7,108 new infections reported on October 1 and 6,914 on October 2 (BBC).

New Public Health Restrictions Introduced in Iceland

Bars, gyms and entertainment venues throughout Iceland were ordered closed as the island nation once lauded as a coronavirus role model attempts to stem a new outbreak. As of Monday gatherings are limited to 20 people, a significant reduction from the previous cap of 200 (WaPo). 

The new restrictions came after the country reported 689 new cases between September 15 and October 5, a major increase in a country that has only recorded a total of around 3,000 cases and 10 deaths since the pandemic’s start. Slightly more than 79 percent of active cases are in or near the capital Reykjavík, drawing criticism of nationwide restrictions amid what national Director of Health Alma Möller referred to as “pandemic fatigue.” Iceland’s chief epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason pushed back against the criticism, arguing that health authorities will be left chasing new outbreaks throughout the nation without nationwide measures (Iceland Review).

Middle East 

Iran Goes Into Lockdown Amid Record New Cases

Nearly all of Iran is on red alert after authorities tallied a record 3,902 cases on Monday. Twenty-six of Iran’s 31 provinces are under the maximum alert level, including Tehran, which already closed schools, libraries, mosques, theaters, coffee shops and other institutions on Saturday in a bid to stem the coronavirus’ tide. Masoud Mardani, a member of the state coronavirus task force, accused people of flouting the rules in pursuit of leisure. “If people keep going on weekend trips... our patients might have to go to field hospitals,” he told the Khabaronline website (Reuters). Medical workers in the capital have reported an overload of cases. “The transmission of this virus is getting out of control,” Payam Tabarsi, head of the infection ward at Tehran’s Masih Daneshvari hospital for respiratory diseases, told the Mardomsalari newspaper, adding that 80 percent of health workers at the hospital have been infected. With a total of 476,000 cases and 27,192 deaths since the pandemic’s beginning, Iran remains the Middle East’s hardest-hit country by the pandemic (WSJ).

Pandemic Pushes Lebanon’s Hospitals ‘To Brink’

Lebanon’s hospitals are on the brink of collapse amid a new coronavirus surge and new records in new daily cases. With intensive care units operating at 82 percent of capacity, Dr Eveline Hitti, chair of the emergency department at the American University in Beirut’s Medical Center, said that “if we continue with this exponential growth, I don’t think we’ll last more than a couple of weeks.” Strain on the Lebanese health care system has been amplified by the convergence of other crises, such as a banking system that has been paralyzed since last year, a currency crisis and, most recently, a massive explosion in August that destroyed the country’s main port and damaged several hospitals in the capital. With hospitals running low on medicine and funds, the public health situation is “not under control,” said Firass Abiad, who runs Beirut’s Rafik Hariri University hospital, the country’s largest COVID-19 facility. Lebanon tallied a record 1,321 cases on Saturday, with cases falling somewhat to 1,175 on Monday. Since the pandemic’s start, it has counted more than 43,000 cases and 398 death (Reuters).

Bonus Read: “Israel’s Coronavirus Lockdown Fuels Protests, Violence and Confusion,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Six Months In, the Shape(s) of the Economic Crisis,” (NYT).

U.S. Service Industry Shows Signs of Recovery, But Europe and Asia Provide Warning Signs

In September, the U.S. service industry showed signs of recovery from the impact of the pandemic, but the sector is suffering in Europe and Asia as countries reimpose restrictions, providing a warning (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index—a survey-based measure of activity in U.S. industries such as travel, health care, restaurants and real estate—rose to 57.8, up from 56.9 in August. Separately, private data firm IHS Markit said Monday its U.S. services index came in at 54.6 last month, down slightly from 55.0 in August though still in expansion territory.” However, surveys of purchasing managers in Europe and Asia show that their rebounds have slowed as many countries reimpose coronavirus restrictions. Regarding Spain, which has been particularly hard-hit, the Journal writes, “Data firm IHS Markit Monday said its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy plummeted to 42.4 in September from 47.7 in August. A reading above 50.0 indicates that activity is increasing, while a reading below points to a decline in activity. The September measure indicates services activity fell at the fastest pace since May, when many of the previous restrictions were still in force.”

Big Law Prospers Amid Coronavirus Economy

Elite law firms are reporting that they have had a record year despite the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report Monday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Many lawyers benefit from their ability to telework. Robert Hays, the chairman of King & Spalding LLP, told the Journal, “It’s like building bridges in wartime—you prefer a different environment … But we’ve built the bridge. So in terms of the business of the firm, we’re doing quite well.” Revenue rose an average of 6.4% among 125 law firms surveyed by Wells Fargo Private Bank over the first half of the year.

U.S. Society

Regal Cinemas Suspends U.S. Operations

Regal Cinemas, the United States’ second largest cinema chain, will suspend its U.S. operations covering more than 500 theaters on Thursday (WSJ). The decision follows an earlier decision to reopen in August and comes as many big films including the latest installment of the James Bond franchise have announced delays due to coronavirus. Mooky Greidinger, CEO of Cineworld, which owns Regal Cinemas, stated, “We are like a grocery shop that doesn’t have vegetables, fruit, meat,” adding, “We cannot operate for a long time without a product.” 

Bonus Read: “A Student Dies, and a Campus Gets Serious About Coronavirus,” (NYT). 

Analysis & Arguments

Olga Khazan and Russel Berman argue the focus on the Supreme Court event as a super-spreader event obscures the broader patterns that made a White House outbreak likely (Atlantic).

The New York Times speaks with the head of Operation Warp Speed (NYT).

Jeet Heer writes that testing positive has not changed Trump’s approach to coronavirus (Nation).

Robin Wright explores how presidential illnesses have changed history (New Yorker).

The Wall Street Journal examines the end of the salad bar (WSJ).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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