Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 11, March/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week's AiR issue with the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia. 

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Ireland, Northern Ireland, Namibia, and Tunesia which celebrate National Day and Independence Day respectively this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: NPC approves reform of Hong Kong’s electoral system 

(dql/zh) Last week, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), a consultative body of some 2.000 representatives from various sectors of Chinese society, and the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislature, concluded their annual week-long plenary sessions. Referred to in Chinese as the ‘two sessions’ and gathering more than 5000 of the country’s political, business and social elite, the sessions are held to discuss and formally decide nation-level policies. 

Among the major decisions was the NPC’s approval of a resolution to substantially reform Hong Kong’s electoral system, to secure what the resolution calls “the administration of Hong Kong by Hong Kong people with patriots as the main body.”

One reform measure is raising the number of the city’s Election Committee from 1.200 to 1.500. The Committee is the electoral college in charge of selecting Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, the city’s leader. According to the adopted resolution, the additional 300 will be “Hong Kong delegates to the National People’s Congress, Hong Kong members of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and representatives of Hong Kong members of the relevant national organizations.” With delegates of these bodies predominantly being of delegates of the Chinese Communist Party, this change is widely seen as a move to bolster Beijing-loyal forces against any potential opposition in the Committee.

A second significant change is the establishment of a vetting committee vested with the power to review and disqualify candidates for the Committee, the post of the Chief Executive, and the Legislative Council (LegCo), Hong Kong’s parliament, if deemed insufficiently ‘patriotic’. The vetting committee will largely consist of Electoral Committee members as well as deputies to the NPC and the CPPCC.

The LegCo will also be expanded to 90 seats from currently 70, including the novelty that a part of members will be elected by the Election Committee, in addition to those traditionally elected on the basis of functional constituencies and of geographical constituencies through direct elections. It has been speculated that not less 40 seats will be allocated to the Committee, reducing functional constituency seats and geographical constituency seats to 30 and 20 respectively. [China Law Translate] [South China Morning Post]

Government and party officials welcomed the resolution as a necessary and effective measure to close the loopholes in Hong Kong’s political system, which according to them have been exploited by local and foreign anti-China forces to foment and carry the massive protest movement in 2019. Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam thanked the central government for having exercised its constitutional powers to lead the electoral reform, vowing that her government will fully cooperate in amending relevant laws as stipulated in the resolution. [Global Times] [China Daily]

For critics, the electoral reform signals Beijing’s latest effort to further rein in Hong Kong’s civil liberties and crack down on political opposition camp, following Beijing’s imposition of the national security law for Hong Kong in summer last year, under which currently some 50 opposition lawmakers and activists are charged with sedition facing sentences up to life imprisonment. [Deutsche Welle] [Radio Free Asia] [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief] [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

In an immediate response, Hong Kong democracy activists issued a letter, calling it the 2021 Hong Kong Charter and accusing Beijing of further “annihilat[ing] the democratic elements,” in the former British colony and condemning the resolution as “the last nail in the coffin for ‘One Country, Two Systems’.” [2021 Hong Kong Charter] [New York Times]

Foreign Ministers of the Group of Seven expressed concerns over the change in the city’s electoral system, calling on Beijing to “restore confidence in Hong Kong’s political institutions and end the unwarranted oppression of those who promote democratic values and the defense of rights and freedoms.” More specifically, British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab accused Beijing of breaking the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, adding that the electoral reform follows a “pattern designed to harass and stifle all voices critical of China’s policies”.

The European Union, Australia, and New Zealand all jumped on board to express concerns over Hong Kong's situation. Earlier, the US condemned the change as a "direct attack" on Hong Kong’s autonomy. [Guardian 1][Guardian 2][Reuters]

China's ambassador to US Cui Tiankai argued that the concerns over Hong Kong are "completely unnecessary", saying "the principle of 'patriots administering Hong Kong' does not mean that we will drive out diversity. 'Patriots' covers a wide scope, and we have always been broad-minded towards those with different political opinions." [South China Morning Post]

China: Prominent human rights lawyer returns home after being prevented from accepting US human rights award

(dql) Wang Yu, a prominent Chinese human rights lawyer, returned home to Beijing after she went missing following an announcement that she was among those women to receive the “International Women of Courage Award” of the US government for advocating human rights, gender equality and women’s empowerment. [VoA]

Back in Beijing, Wang revealed that she and her husband were stopped from returning to Beijing by police officers who followed by them 24 hours a day from Sunday to Friday, preventing her from virtually taking part in the award ceremony. 

Wang was the first lawyer caught in a nationwide crackdown on human rights lawyers and activists in 2015, which critics said was an attempt by Beijing to stymie China’s emerging rights defence movement.

She was later charged with inciting subversion of state power, and was released in 2016 following a confession. Since then, she has continued to take human rights cases, the latest of which was the case of a 21-year-old Chinese who was sentenced to 14 years in jail last December after posting personal information about President Xi Jinping’s family online. [South China Morning Post] [Radio Free Asia]

Japan: New dining scandal cases?

(dql) The pressure on Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga over dining scandals involving high-ranking members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and members of his cabinet continues after media outlets reported last week that Seiko Noda, LDP’s acting executive acting secretary general and former communications minister, and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Manabu Sakai as well as LDP lawmaker Minoru Terada, who both served as a senior vice minister at the ministry, were treated expansive meals by Japan’s telecom giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. (NTT). [Japan Times]

In related earlier developments, the Suga’s Vice Minister for Policy Coordination was sacked over a NTT-sponsored dinner while his Public Relations Secretary resigned after it was revealed that she was treated a 700 USD dinner by a Japanese broadcasting firm in 2019 when she served as senior bureaucrat at the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry which grants broadcasting licenses. [Nippon] [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

Japan: Cabinet adopts bill to reduce usage of plastic 

(dql) Japan’s Cabinet approved a bill aimed at reducing plastic waste by promoting a set of new measures including recycling a wider range of waste and reducing the use of plastic at restaurants and retail stores. If cleared by the Diet, the new law would go into effect in April 2022.  

The bill bans shops and businesses from offering disposable cutlery and plastic straws for free. Alternative solutions proposed in the bill include charging customers for single-use cutlery or switching to plastic-free materials. Retail stores are required to introduce measures to cut waste, such as charging for packaging, shifting from plastic packaging to more environmentally-friendly materials, or making it standard practice to ask customers whether they need packaging at all. Businesses failing to comply can be fined with up to 4.600 USD. 

Japan produces over 8 million tons of plastic waste annually, causing serious marine pollution. [Mainichi]

South Korea: Minister offers to resign amid widening land speculation scandal

(nm) South Korea’s Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport Byeon Chang-heum offered to resign to take political responsibility in the widening land speculation scandal involving state housing developer Korea Land and Housing Corp. (LH) whose president he was during the time when most of the land purchases – now under investigation – were made. 

His offer comes as police have raided the homes and offices of local public servants and council members, widening its investigation into the scandal that triggered fierce public outcry in response to which the ruling Democratic Party (DP) proposed a parliamentary probe into all sitting lawmakers, employees at state-run institutions, and high-level government officials.  

Twenty employees of the state housing developer Korea Land and Housing Corp. (LH) are currently under investigation for alleged use of insider information to buy land located south of Seoul, between April 2018 and June 2020 before it was designated as a major public housing development site by the central government. Fourteen additional public officials have been confirmed to have purchased land in the region, including members of the municipal governments of the two cities affected. One opposition lawmaker, Kwak Sang-do of the People Power Party, even claimed that more than 70 employees were possibly involved. 

Fearing negative repercussions of the scandal for the upcoming mayoral elections in the country’s two largest cities Seoul and Busan on April 7 as well as for the presidential election set for March 2022, the DP has announced to take harsh measures against party members found guilty, including life-long expulsion. [Yonhap 1] [The Korea Herald 1] [The Korea Herald 2] [Yonhap 2] [Nikkei Asia] 

Taiwan: KMT demands halt of government natural gas terminal project

(dql) Taiwan’s main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), called on the government to stop all construction on a controversial liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal project, after a petition supporting a nationwide referendum on the project gathered enough signatures to go ahead in August. The KMT also demanded that the government actively prepare alternative solutions and to publicly declare to respect the referendum’s outcome. 

The LNG terminal project, located off the coast of Taoyuan, is operated by state-run utility CPC Corp., Taiwan and has been criticized by environmental groups who argue that it would harm the algal reef and endangered species in the area. [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Rally held against Quran petition in India

(lm) The largest Islamist political party in Bangladesh, Jamaat-e-Islami, organized a rally in the capital Dhaka on March 15 to protest against a petition filed in India’s Supreme Court seeking the removal of 26 verses from the Holy Quran. [Anadolu Agency]

A local Shia Muslim leader from the state of Uttar Pradesh had previously filed petition with the Indian Supreme Court seeking the removal of 26 verses from the Holy Quran over claims that these were introduced to the religious book at a later date and are violent in nature and against the basic tenets of Islam.

In India, clerics from both Sunni and Shiite Muslim sects have strongly condemned the move and issued a fatwa – a death sentence - against the petitioner, calling on community members to ostracize him from the community and Islam. A prominent Shia Muslim cleric even urged the Supreme Court to reject the petition and sent a memorandum to Indian Prime Minister Modi to urge Indian authorities to arrest the petitioner for blasphemy and making an attempt to breach peace by vitiating the communal atmosphere in the country. [The Free Press Journal]

India: Rights body files petition with National Human Rights Commission over Rohingya refugees

(lm) New Delhi-based rights group 'National Campaign Against Torture' (NCAT) on March 9 filed a petition with India’s National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), urging the public body to process the asylum/refugee claims filed by Myanmar nationals who fled their country following the coup d’état in Myanmar last month [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [The EurAsian Times]

The rights group asked the NHRC to direct the government to not forcibly repatriate any Burmese refugee until their refugee claims have been assessed by the NHRC and further to extend humanitarian assistance to the fleeing refugees. As of the first week this month, 16 Myanmar nationals have crossed into Indian territory and are currently taking refuge in different districts in the northeastern state of Mizoram, the NCAT said in a press statement.

On March 6, authorities detained nearly 170 Rohingya in the city of Jammu in Kashmir and sent them to a holding center, potentially as part of wider nationwide crackdown for the deportation of Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar. For the recent detention follows Prime Minister Modi’s government’s announcement in 2017 that it would deport all Rohingya. [Human Rights Watch]

About 15,000 of the estimated 40,000 Rohingya refugees in India hold ID cards registered with the United Nations High Commissioner For Refugees (UNHCR), which are supposed to offer protection from arbitrary detention. India, which did not sign the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, however, treats all Rohingya entering the country as illegal immigrants.

India: New OCI card rules turn the spotlight on dual citizenship debate

(lm) The Ministry of Home Affairs issued a notification on March 4, which dramatically curtails the rights for those holding the Overseas Citizenship of India (OCI) - a form of permanent residency available to people of Indian origin and their spouses. Restrictions include a requirement for OCIs to obtain a special permit to any research or journalistic activities, among others. [The Straits Times]

In addition, the notification now equates OCIs to ‘foreign nationals’ in respect of ‘all other economic, financial and educational fields’, reversing the position that has held for the last 16 years wherein OCIs were equated to Non-Resident Indians rather than ‘foreign nationals’ for the purposes of their economic, financial and educational rights. [The Times of India]

Introduced in 2005 in response to demands for dual citizenship by the Indian diaspora, the OCI allowed for visa-free travel and holders enjoyed the same rights as an Indian national, barring the rights to vote in Indian elections and to hold public office. As of 2020, there are 6 million holders of OCI cards among the Indian Overseas diaspora.

Observers say the notification has likely been triggered by the defeats suffered by the government in several court judgements related to OCI cardholders. In fact, the notification reproduced a part of the guidelines issued by the ministry in 2019 on benefits to OCI cardholders, which have now been legalized through the notification. [Scroll.in] [The Hindu]

India likely to block Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE over security concerns

(lm) India’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT) said on March 10 that Indian telecom operators can only source their network equipment from government-approved ‘trusted sources’ post-June 15,2021. Any use of non-trusted products will require the licensee to obtain permission from the designated authority. [The Straits Times]

Citing potential national security risks, the DoT also said it could create could also create a ‘no procurement’ blacklist. While the department is yet to provide further details on the plans, officials say Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE Corporation are likely to feature on the embargoed list. Both companies are under scrutiny for allegedly installing ‘back door’ vulnerabilities to spy for the Chinese government.

Prior to the DoT’s announcement, Indian media reported that Huawei was willing to partner an Indian company in 5G equipment manufacturing - which would include a transfer of technology - to allay Indian security concerns. [ET Telecom]

Notably, Chinese companies are also likely not to be allowed to bid for stakes in India’s national carrier Air India and oil and gas giant Bharat Petroleum Corporation, which are among the state-owned companies New Delhi aims to privatize to achieve its disinvestment target of about $24 billion for the next fiscal year. [CNBC]

Meanwhile, India has begun to fast-track approvals of some of the more than 150 Chinese investment proposals worth over $2 billion it had put on hold after more than 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a military clash in June [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. At the same time, New Delhi is reportedly unlikely to overturn last year's ban on more than 100 Chinese mobile apps [see e.g. AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1].

Nepal: Communist factions in talks to form government; PM Oli purges party

(lm) After the recent ruling by Nepal’s Supreme Court (SC), declaring the 2018 post-election merger of the now-defunct Nepal Communist Party (NCP) void ab initio, the four major parties in the House of Representatives are jostling to cobble up an alliance to form a government.

At present, Prime Minister Oli’s government is still built upon a coalition between his Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M) of his rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal, which is yet to officially withdraw its support. In this case, Prime Minister Oli’s CPN-UML would require the support from either of the country’s two major opposition parties - the People's Socialist Party, Nepal, (PSP-N) or the Nepali Congress (NC) - to successfully pass a floor test and to form a coalition government. [The Kathmandu Post 1]

To tighten its grip on the party, the CPN-UML’s establishment faction led by Prime Minister Oli called a special meeting of the party’s Central Committee on March 12 and removed leaders of the faction led by Madhav Kumar Nepal from key posts they had held before the CPN-UML’s 2018 merger with the CPN(M). In response, Nepal, who had teamed up with CPN(M) chairman Dahal to oust Prime Minister Oli from both government and leadership of the now-defunct NCP, wrote a letter to the Election Commission on March 14, urging it not to implement the decisions taken by the establishment faction. Notably, Nepal’s faction cannot split from the CPN-UML, as it does not have the required strength in the party’s Central Committee. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Himalayan Times 2]

Meanwhile, NC, CPN(M) and PSP-N are also exploring the possibility of forming a coalition government of their own. CPN(M) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal again met with NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba on March 9, after he had previously already offered him the premiership. The same day, Dahal also met with the chairman of the PSP-N. [The Himalayan Times 3]

Further, Dahal has proposed to drop the ‘Maoist Center’ from the CPN(M)’s name so that other political forces in the country may find it easier to join hands. [The Himalayan Times 4]

Against this backdrop, there is a good case to believe that much depends on the political strategy of NC President Deuba. Should he refrain from forming a coalition government with either Prime Minister Oli’s CPN-UML or the other two opposition parties, a mid-term election is inevitable. [The Kathmandu Post 2]

Nepal: National Human Rights Commission lashes out at international rights organizations

(lm) The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has lashed out at three international rights organizations, accusing them of interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation and undermining the country’s judiciary. [The Himalayan Times] 

Human Rights Watch, the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), and Amnesty International on March 1 had issued a press release, calling on Nepal’s government to immediately withdraw last year’s executive order that enabled the Constitutional Council (CC) to achieve quorum if as few as three of its six members, including the prime minister, attend a meeting. The CC is a key agency that appoints officials to the judiciary, the NHRC, and other constitutional bodies including the Election Commission. [Human Rights Watch]

On December 15, 2020, the CC had met with a newly reduced quorum and made 38 nominations to vacant positions on 11 constitutional bodies at that meeting. They included all five seats on the NHRC, as well as nominations to bodies established to protect the rights of Dalits, women, and marginalized minorities, and to investigate corruption allegations [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Since then, different political parties and even a faction in the then ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) had cried foul over the appointments, and writs have been filed at the Supreme Court (SC) challenging the constitutional validity of the appointments [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2].

Nepalese observers pointedly remark that the posts in the constitutional bodies had been lying vacant for a long time, thus hampering effective implementation of the rule of law and service delivery. Because the seat of the Deputy Speaker is vacant, absence of any of the remaining five members - Chief Justice, Speaker, Deputy Speaker, National Assembly Chair and leader of the main opposition – would effectively cripple the CC. [The Himalayan Times]

Nepal: Government signs peace accord with banned Maoist splinter group

(lm) The Nepalese government has signed a peace agreement with the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN), an outlawed Maoist breakaway faction of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M)) known for its violent activities. [Al Jazeera]

Under the three-point agreement, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government agreed to lift a ban on the group, release all their party members and supporters in jail and drop all legal cases against them, while the group agreed to give up all violence and resolve any issues through peaceful dialogue.

Founded in 2014, the CPN is led by Netra Bikram Chand (also known by his nom de guerre Biplav), who served as one of the two main militant commanders of Pushpa Kamal Dahal during the Nepalese Civil War between 1996 and 2006 [see also AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. In 2019, Prime Minister Oli’s government declared the CPN a criminal outfit over the party’s alleged involvement in bombings, extortion and killing of civilians.

Pakistan: Gilgit Baltistan Assembly adopts resolution demanding provincial status from federal government

(lm) The Legislative Assembly of Pakistan’s de facto province Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) on March 9 unanimously adopted a joint resolution asking the federal government to grant the territory interim provincial status and provide it with representation in Parliament and other constitutional bodies. The resolution was moved by GB’s Chief Minister, a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of Prime Minister Imran Khan. [Kashmir Images]

Last November, the PTI party and its ally Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen Pakistan (MWM) had emerged as the largest political alliance in the provincial assembly elections, despite failing to achieve a clear majority [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Khan constituted a 12-member committee to make recommendations about changing the status of GB [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2].

To date, the federal government has fallen short of declaring the strategic region as its fifth province, ostensibly to protect its claim on the entirety of Kashmir in the event of a resolution of the Kashmir dispute with India. As a consequence, the region has been caught in constitutional limbo and denied representation in Pakistan’s national legislature [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

Sri Lanka: Government to ban burqa, shut many Islamic schools, says minister

(lm) Sri Lanka will ban the wearing of the burqa - an enveloping outer garment which covers the body and the face that is worn by women in some Islamic traditions - and shut more than 1,000 Islamic schools, a government minister said on March 13, citing national security. The wearing of the burqa in the majority-Buddhist nation was temporarily banned in the wake of the 2019 Easter Sunday suicide bombings that killed more than 260 people and injured 500 more [see AiR (4/4/2019)]. [The Straits Times 1] [Al Jazeera] 

The decision is the latest move affecting the Indian Ocean island nation’s minority Muslims, coming as it does after the government had recently suspended its policy of forced cremations of coronavirus victims [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. Ignoring the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines which permit both burials and cremations, Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka had made cremations of COVID-19 victims mandatory, arguing that burials in accordance with Islamic tradition would pose a public health risk. Human and religious rights groups, as well as local Muslim associations had resented the policy, saying authorities used it to purposely hurt the country’s religious minorities [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3].

Meanwhile, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was elected in 2019 after promising a crackdown on 'extremism' has promulgated regulations that give sweeping powers to authorities to detain people suspected of hate crimes. [The Straits Times 2]

The new regulations, effective on March 12, have been set up under the contentious Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and allow the detention of 24 months of anyone suspected of causing 'acts of violence or religious, racial or communal disharmony or feelings of ill will or hostility between different communities' at 're-integration centers'.

Before, under the PTA, a person can be detained for periods up to 18 months (renewable by order every three months) without charge and without being produced before a judge. Human rights groups have long been criticizing the PTA, calling it an abusive law used to crack down on dissent and forcibly disappear people [see e.g. AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1, AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: CNRP member arrested over Chinese vaccine criticism

(nd) A member of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was arrested for allegedly inciting social unrest by claiming that Chinese-made vaccines aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19 were unsafe and had caused several deaths. The woman made such statements on her Facebook page, police spokesperson saying it “gravely affected social security.”

It is one in a string of arrests of political opposition and social activists on unspecified charges without a warrant or explanations provided. At least two other CNRP activists were recently arrested for the same reason, as well as environmental activists, NGO members, and Buddhist monks. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen had both spoken in favor and against Chinese vaccine, and there have been no confirmed reports in Cambodia of deaths caused by use of the Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Cremation order to exempt Muslims

(nd) Cambodia’s mandatory order to cremate the bodies of all people who die of COVID-19 will exempt Muslims, who will be able to bury their dead “according to their own traditions and customs.” Cremation is forbidden in Islam, therefore the order sparked concern among Muslims in Cambodia, who constitute between 2 and 5% of the population. Cambodia has so far reported only one fatality from the virus so far, with a caseload currently at 1,060. Sri Lanka was the first country to put such order in place and also reversed it last month to accommodate Muslim people.

The World Health Organization recently rejected claims that bodies of people who have died of a communicable disease should be cremated. [Anadolu Agency]

Laos: SMEs continue to suffer 

(py) More than one-third of small to medium-sized businesses in Laos have permanently shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such drastic closures were expected since almost a quarter of the country's approximate 100,000 SMEs are in the tourism sector. On top of this, despite the goal to be the battery of ASEAN, the Laotian government has recently raised the domestic price of electricity, further weakening such businesses. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Malaysia: Court to rule on use of religious words

(nd) Malaysia’s high court decided that Christians are allowed to use the word “Allah”, Baitullah (God’s house), Kaabah (the building at the center of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, which is the direction of prayer for Muslims around the world) and solat (pray) in religious publications for educational purposes. In this landmark ruling, the judges deemed a 1986 directive by the home ministry to ban the use of the four words by Christians was an "illegality" and "irrationality". Additionally, Christian communities in Malaysia have been using especially “Allah” for generations in the practice of their faith. The case was brought by a Malaysian Christian from Sarawak, whose CDs were seized at Kuala Lumpur Airport, featuring the above-mentioned terms. [Channel News Asia]

According to analysts, the ruling is unlikely to settle the ongoing issue, which will rather be a subject of social and political tension, and potentially be challenging for the ruling coalition of Perikatan Nasional if its Muslim coalition parties Umno and PAS pull away their support. Among conservative Islamist groups, the key concern is that the use of Malay words by Christians would confuse Muslims and aid the conversions of rural Muslims. It is illegal to convert from Islam to another religion in Malaysia. The government has already appealed the decision. [South China Morning Post]

Malaysia: Emergency ordinance against “fake news” on Covid-19 

(nd) An emergency ordinance was published Thursday, which criminalizes “fake news” about the country’s state of emergency and coronavirus pandemic. Critics called it a “shut-up order against all Malaysians” and that it is used to punish criticism of unelected Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s government. Violators of the ordinance face three years in prison or a maximum penalty of 100,000 ringgit (U.S. $24,345), or both. Since it was an emergency ordinance, parliament was not involved in its creation. Prime Minister Najib Razak adopted a similar law against fake news, which was abolished a year later by the incoming government. 

The ordinance is one of many steps in limiting freedom of expression by the administration of Muhyiddin, who is highly criticized for suspending parliament after the king imposed a state of emergency on January 12 on Muhyiddin’s advice. [Benar News]

Myanmar: Rising violence in crackdown on protesters

(nd) Last Wednesday, according to documents shared with the US Department of Justice, the military hired an Israeli-Canadian lobbyist to "assist in explaining the real situation" of the army's coup to the United States and other countries. He is supposed to be receiving $ 2 million, which could be in violation of imposed sanctions. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council failed to agree on a statement to condemn the coup, call for restraint by the military and threaten to consider "further measures," due to amendments to a British draft proposed by China, Russia, India and Vietnam. [Channel News Asia 1]

Following Myanmar Now, the offices of media outlets Mizzima and Kamaryut Media were raided last Tuesday. In its intensifying crackdown on the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), the military started to target striking railway workers. [Asia Times] Meanwhile, Ba Myo Thein, the second NLD official, died in police custody. [Channel News Asia 2] 

According to a leaked document on social media, a Chinese delegation held an emergency meeting with home affairs and foreign ministry staff in late February, asking the military to upgrade security for its pipeline projects amid rising anti-Chinese sentiment across the country due to its defense of the regime. Additionally, the delegation asked the military regime to pressure media to help reduce skepticism towards China. At least two officials have been detained over the leak. [Irrawaddy 1] In response to that and due to China’s role in blocking a resolution of the UN Security Council, protesters started a campaign boycotting Chinese imports as well as issuing threats against a major Chinese energy pipeline and port, which are part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, providing an ocean access. [Radio Free Asia 1] Over the weekend, Chinese-run factories were set on fire by protesters, further accusing China to support the military, which prompted the military to impose full martial law over parts of Yangon. For urging security forces to better protect Chinese business interests, despite further deadly crackdowns on protesters, China faced harsh criticism, further fueling anti-Chinese sentiment. [Irrawaddy 2]

Overall, the actions of security forces grew even more violent, killing with direct shots in the head or critical areas, such as the abdomen, and many teenagers among the deceased, whose toll rose to 183. Medical personnel and international journalists were among the almost 2000 arrested. More strategically, civil and digital infrastructure is destroyed, on top of the already imposed internet blackout from 1am to 9am, the military also imposed a 24-hours shutdown of mobile internet service in an attempt to cut off lines of communication among protesters. [Radio Free Asia 2] According to the UN food agency, prices for food (20-35%) and fuel (15%) rose significantly since the coup. [Reuters]

According to a report by human rights watchdog Amnesty International (AI), the military is deploying army divisions notorious for atrocities to deliberately escalate violence against protesters. Videos published by AI showed troops using military weapons inappropriate for policing, like automatic rifles, indiscriminately spraying live ammunition in urban areas, and even making a sport of shooting protesters, some amounting to extrajudicial executions. [Radio Free Asia 3]

Last Wednesday, the military in accordance with its governing body, the State Administrative Council (SAC), removed the ethnic armed group, Arakan Army (AA), from its list of terrorist groups. Only in March 2020 was the AA labelled as a terrorist organization. The AA intensified fighting from November 2018 to early November 2020, with hundreds of fatalities and more than 200,000 residents displaced due to the conflict. In an effort to establish national peace, the military held two rounds of talks with the AA since November 2020, enabling military resources to be concentrated elsewhere. [Irrawaddy 3]

The acting administration of the Committee Representing the National Parliament (CRPH), a group of MPs mostly National League for Democracy (NLD) party, has started to set up a public administration program establishing local councils. Also, CRPH has put itself at the head of the CDM to support inter alia fired civil servants. With its announcement to abolish the 2008 constitution, which gives extraordinary power to the military, CRPH reached out both to civil society leaders and ethnic political parties and armed groups, aiming to build a broad coalition. A next step would be seeking support from Western governments. [Asia Times] CRPH also announced to back a “revolution” ousting the military government. [Radio Free Asia 2]

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has announced that it will put on hold funding for Myanmar government development projects in various sectors. Between 2013 and 2019, the ADB funded projects worth more than US$3.5 billion. [Irrawaddy 4]

UN-appointed Special Rapporteur Thomas Andrews said Thursday, given the systematic and brutal action by the military against peaceful protesters, they are likely to meet the legal threshold for crimes against humanity, reinforcing that the people of Myanmar needed the help of the international community now. [UN News] The US government announced that Myanmar citizens would be able to remain inside the United States under “temporary protected status”. The protection is usually set for a limited period, but can be extended if the hardships or threats like political upheavals or natural disasters making returns difficult remain. [South China Morning Post 1] In the latest Quad meeting, leaders of the United States, India, Australia and Japan vowed to push to restore democracy in Myanmar. [South China Morning Post 2] ASEAN nations are increasingly urging the junta to hold a dialogue with protesters to find a peaceful solution and refrain from further violence. Many herald an intensification of violence over the Armed Forces Day on March 27, a holiday that commemorates the 1945 uprising against Japanese occupation forces led by Aung San, Aung San Suu Kyi's father. [Nikkei Asia]

Adding to her charges, ousted state council Suu Kyi was accused of accepting bribes amounting to $600,000 in payments and gold bars while in office. [Radio Free Asia 3] In an effort to delegitimize the coup legally, scholars debated whether junta-appointed president Myint Swe cannot legally be President. According to section 59f of the Constitution, the office of president or vice-president cannot be held by a person with a foreign citizenship, or if their spouse, children, or children’s spouses are citizens of a foreign country. Allegedly, Myint Swe’s son-in-law holds an Australian passport. The section is infamous because it prevented Suu Kyi from becoming President in 2015 due to her deceased husband’s British nationality. [The Diplomat]

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) carried out an attack on a military outpost in Kachin State on Thursday. Before the coup, there were few major clashes between the two, who were in the process of negotiating a ceasefire. While the military’s governing body, the State Administrative Council, announced to continue the peace process with ethnic armed organizations, the KIA said it supported the protesters and refused to recognize the military regime. KIA urged the military not to use live rounds and threatened to take revenge for the death of protesters. [Irrawaddy 5]

Philippines: Mayor shot dead by police

(nd) In what was referred to as a mistaken encounter, police killed city mayor Ronaldo Aquino and two of his aides, next to two of the police officers. According to the police report, the fire was open from Aquino’s security aides and returned from the officers, who were on a routine patrol.

In the past, a number of mayors and provincial officials linked to illegal drugs have been ambushed and killed by unknown gunmen, in connection with President Rodrigo Duterte’s deadly anti-drug crackdown, that has created a culture of impunity. Aquino was said to not be involved in illegal drug dealings. The Department of Justice was ordered to investigate. Left-wing and human rights groups have condemned the killings. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, a group of activists called Cyber PH for Human Rights hacked into the government’s main website and block access to it as a protest against alleged human rights violations by authorities. [Benar News 1] The government has announced to track down the group. The UN and EU have expressed concerns over the deaths of the nine killings during raids last week. [Benar News 2]

Philippines: “Shoot to kill” order being implemented

(nd) Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana announced on Thursday that police and military forces are now implementing President Duterte’s ‘shoot to kill’ order against communist rebels. We specified the order was against those who would not surrender, but continued to fight the government and were ready to kill. Still, security forces would encourage the rebels to surrender. 

Duterte’s shoot to kill order is seen as the motivation behind the recent shootout killing nine people in a raid last week. Police upholds that the operation was covered by arrest warrants and therefore legal. Also, the killed opted for a shootout with the police. [Manila Bulletin]

Meanwhile, Duterte’s allies have started a campaign to persuade him to run for vice president in next year’s general election, enabling him to keep his influence in the second highest office despite the one-term limit. [Nikkei Asia]

Philippines: Decision rendered on Duterte’s withdrawal from ICC

(nd) A petition charging President Rodrigo Duterte’s unilateral decision to pull out if the International Criminal Court (ICC) was denied by the Supreme Court. The en banc, unanimous vote rendered that the subject has become academic and moot, but still set out guidelines on when a treaty can be unilaterally withdrawn. Whether Duterte is legally required to get the concurrence of the Senate does not have a clear textual basis, just a requirement for concurrence of two thirds of the Senate for the ratification is found in the Constitution.

Duterte’s decision came when the ICC decided launch a preliminary examination into human rights abuses amid his war on drugs. According to the ICC, such withdrawal does not affect an ongoing examination. According to the Rome Statute, proceedings opened before a country's withdrawal can continue even after such withdrawal from the ICC. The ICC is in the midst of determining the opening of an investigation.

The recent guidelines by the yet unpublished court decision are likely to also clarify issues around the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US, which was also unilaterally revoked by Duterte. [Rappler]

Singapore: Threats to trade and security 

(py) Singapore, the economically powerful a city-state, assumes a significant role in the region's economic and political arena, especially in the US-China trade war. The trade war between the two great powers and accompanying protectionism has threatened the globalization process. For Singapore, the US remains the main security partner and the largest investor. China, on the other hand, is Singapore's biggest export destination. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasized Singapore could not afford to take sides and encouraged cooperation between the big powers.

Additionally, Singapore is facing growing presence of terrorism, with a 16-year-old boy arrested in January for plotting to attack mosques, the first acts of terrorism with an extreme right-wing background. Singapore has experience countering terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), setting up a rehabilitation program for militants in 2003. Such experience can help mitigate growing threats from extremism targeting ethnic and religious groups. [BBC] [The Diplomat]

Thailand: Constitutional Court rules on referendum on constitutional amendment 

(nd) According to a Constitutional Court ruling, proposals for constitutional amendments have to be brought for a vote before the people through a two-tiered referendum by parliament. Until now, an amendment draft already passed two parliamentary readings and was supposed to be voted on next week. During one of the readings, a majority voted for seeking a Constitutional Court’s ruling on the issue. MPs were unsure whether the ruling forced them to drop the current draft or have a parliamentary vote on it and then present it for a referendum.

Opposition parties as well as the youth-led pro-democracy movement have been calling for the government of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha to reform the 2017 charter, which favors the military and helped Prayuth to stay in power following the 2019 general elections. Parliament has been working on changing Article 256 in order to enable a constitutional amendment. The draft stipulates 200 Constitution drafting members be elected from constituencies nationwide, sparing sections dealing with the monarchy. [Benar News]

Thailand: Economic repercussions of pro-democracy protests

(nd) Both demonstrations by pro-democracy activists as well as though police actions against them continued over the past weeks. The co-leader of the protests remain in custody over lese majeste charges, carrying a maximum penalty of 15 years. Still, unprecedented calls for monarchy reform resume, resulting in the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to intensify its crackdown on protesters.

With respect to economic repercussions, especially Thailand’s status as a foreign direct investment destination, the initial negative effect of the conflict seems to have worn off, with investors returning. Still, the protest movement exposes Thailand’s systemic political instability, which could deter foreign investors in the future.

Thailand’s tourist-dependent economy was severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. But according to analysts, the biggest downturn since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis is likewise connected to the political tension and insecurity, both with respect to foreign and domestic sources. 

For the return of investor confidence in the last quarter of 2020 and first of 2021, analysts cited the rollout of the vaccination program, government incentive packages, and the creation of special economic zones like the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Additionally, foreign investors were offered a host of tax and duties exemptions particularly in high-tech sectors like robotics and biofuels. While politicians have tried to downplay the significance of the protests and align it with the normalcy of a certain amount of political unrest in the country, the youth-led movement still poses an unprecedented challenge to the monarchy, with a possible greater impact than previous political unrests.

Another factor is the competition from neighboring Southeast Asian countries — particularly Vietnam and Indonesia — who offer political stability and attractive investment incentives, such as lower wages. [The Diplomat]

Thailand: Plans to expand prison space amid protests

(nd) To counter challenges to correctional facilities amid the rise in political prisoners due to the ongoing pro-democracy protest, Thailand considers an expansion of prison space. Many prisons are congested with protesters. Protesters raised yet unprecedented demands, like a monarchy and constitutional reform as well as the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. According to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, at least 382 people, including 13 minors and 58 charged under the lese majeste laws, are currently facing charges in conjunction with peacefully protesting. Charges under lese majeste include online postings brought by the newly introduced Cyber Crime Unit. UN criticized the surge in charges for lese majeste and a decline in freedom of expression. [The Diplomat]

Meanwhile, co-leader of the protests, Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, announced he would go into hunger strike until he and the other co-leaders are granted bail. Six other activists are charged under Article 112 and were refused bail multiple times. [Benar News]

Vietnam: Court upholds sentences for six Dong Tam defendants, including two death sentences

(lm) The Hanoi People’s High Court upheld the sentences on March 9 against six defendants who were among a group of 29 villagers tried for their roles in a deadly clash with police over land rights at the Dong Tam commune outside the capital Hanoi last year. Reported violations of due process by the three-judge panel hearing the case included barring one lawyer from conferring with his client and stopping lines of questioning into sensitive aspects of the case. [Radio Free Asia] [Nasdaq]

During the appellate trial, the procuracy had recommended that sentences conferred by the lower court last September be upheld, including two death sentences for two brothers convicted of murder and resisting law enforcement [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. The brothers' father was shot dead by police who had entered the village in January last year, intervening in a long-running dispute over a military construction site.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

SIPRI international arms transfers report 2020

(dql) According to the 2020 international arms transfers report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), released last week, the US remains the world’s largest arms supplier in 2016-2020 accounting for 37% of the global arms exports, followed by Russia (20%), France (8.2), Germany (5.5%) and China (5.2%). Together, these five countries accounted for 76% of all exports of major arms. Besides China, Asian countries listed among the top 25 countries which accounted for 99% of global arms exports include South Korea (2.7%, ranking at 7), the United Arab Emirates (0.5%, 18), and India (0.2%, 24)

Against the backdrop of the US-China rivalry, the US allies Australia (accounting for 9.4% of US arms exports), South Korea (6.7%) and Japan (5.7%) were among the five largest importers of US arms.

23 Asian countries were among the 40 largest importers including Saudi-Arabia, India, China, South Korea, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Iraq, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Oman, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, the Philippines, Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Taiwan, and Malaysia. [Reliefweb]

China-US relations: Chinese military called on to prepare for “instable and uncertain security condition” and “high-risk phase”  

(dql/zh) Chinese President Xi Jinping in a speech at a panel discussion attended by representatives of the armed forces during the annual session of the NPC, expressed far-reaching expectations towards the country’s military which he heads in his capacity as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. Stressing that China is currently under a “instable and uncertain security condition,” he called on the military to “prepare to respond to any kind of complex and difficult situation at any time, to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, and to provide strong support for the building of a socialist modernized state.” [Xinhua, in Chinese]

More pronounced, China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe described China’s current security situation as “high-risk phase,” and warning China to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparedness for war and improve the strategic capability to win over strong enemies.” With regards to the US, he made clear that “[c]ontainment and counter-containment will be the main theme of bilateral ties in the long term.” Wei made these remarks in a press conference on China’s new defense budget for 2021, amounting to 208 billion USD, a rise of 6.8% compared to 2020. [Bloomberg]

The head of US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson, meanwhile, in his testimony before members of the Senate Armed Services Committee described China as “the greatest long-term strategic threat to security in the 21st century,” in response to which the US "absolutely must be ready to fight and win should competition turn to conflict." He called Guam and Taiwan potential next targets of China’s external aggression and called on lawmakers to support continued weapons sales to Taiwan while pushing for the installation of an Aegis Ashore missile defense facility on Guam as part of the US Pacific Deterrence Initiative for which the US Indo-Pacific Command recently submitted a request of 4.6 billion USD additional spending for 2022. [South China Morning Post] [VoA][AiR No.10, March/2021, 2]

China-US diplomatic relations: Low expectations for first high-level meeting under Biden administration

(dql) China’s foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan will meet in Anchorage, Alaska, this Thursday, the first meeting of senior American and Chinese officials since President Joe Biden took office on January 20. 

While a wide range of issues will be discussed, expectations towards this meeting are low, given that both sides are well aware of the other’s demands and red lines. Furthermore, the meeting is viewed differently. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry described it as a “high-level strategic dialogue,” signaling China's hope for a dialogue mechanism to be set up subsequently, Blinken made clear that on Washington’s side there was “no intent at this point for a series of follow-on engagements,” adding that those “engagements, if they are to follow, really have to be based on the proposition that we’re seeing tangible progress and tangible outcomes.” [South China Morning Post] [Heritage]

In addition, Blinken reiterated accusations against China of “coercion and destabilising behaviour” during talks between US and Japanese foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo on Tuesday and vowed that the US “will push back if necessary when China uses coercion and aggression to get its way”. [Aljazeera]

China-US trade relations: Biden administration imposed more restrictions on Huawei’s suppliers

(zh/dql) In a move further deepening the US-Sino technology conflict, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) designated five Chinese tech firms as posing an "unacceptable risk" to national security. Among them is telecommunication giant Huawei, on which – in a separate development – the Biden administration added new 5G license restrictions on previously approved export licenses, prohibiting the export of components including semiconductors, antennas, and batteries that can be used with 5G devices. [Deutsche Welle] [South China Morning Post]

Earlier this month, in response to an email cyberattack that Microsoft attributed to China-sponsored group Hafnium, the Biden administration announced to form the Unified Coordination Group (UCG) task force, a multi-agency effort including FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), to deal with the attack. The White House said the US was "undertaking a whole of government response, calling the hack "an active threat" and urged "network operators to take it very seriously." Beijing has denied its role in the attack. [BBC 1][BBC 2][CNN]

China accuses Australia of violating human rights at offshore detention centers

(zh) China has said it is "deeply concerned" by the Australian government's operation of offshore detention centers and has called for the sites to be closed immediately. In a statement reported to the UN Human Rights Council, China alleged the detention centers "fall short of adequate medical conditions" and violate the human rights of a large number of immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers who are detained there.

The accusation comes amid highly strained relations between the two countries, which begun to sour in 2018 when Australia became the first nation to ban Chinese telecommunication giant Huawei from its 5G network and worsened after Canberra in 2020 demanded an inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus.  Beijing retaliated with restrictions on imports of Australian beef, barley, wine, and coal. [Guardian 1] [CNN]

In a latest development, Canberra has reiterated its concerns over the delay of clearance of 40 ships carrying coal of Australian origin. Australia’s Trade Minister Dan Tehan also announced that Canberra would request the World Trade Organization (WTO) to establish a dispute settlement panel to investigate whether China breaches free trade rules over tariffs that wiped out Australia's barley trade with China after the two sides had failed to reach a consensus. The request comes after Tehan’s invitation for his Chinese counterpart to kick start the discussion on the trade dispute was left un-responded. [Guardian 2][Sydney Morning Herald] [AiR No.6, February/2021, 2]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea form coalition to push back against unilateral force, sanctions

(zh) China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and 13 other countries – including Algeria, Angola, Belarus, Bolivia, Cambodia, Cuba, Eritrea, Laos, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent, the Grenadines, Syria, and Venezuela – have formed a coalition to foster “the respect to the purposes and principles enshrined in the UN Charter," including “non-interference in the internal affairs of States, peaceful settlement of disputes, and to refrain from the use or threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State.”

The move comes as US President Biden has abandoned his predecessor’s ‘America First’ unilateralism and sought a more multilateral approach to global affairs. However, he has still maintained sanctions already in place against Venezuela, as well as against Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and other countries of the group. [Reuters] [Newsweek]

China-Russia relations: Deepening ties

(zh) Reflecting Russia’s growing strategic alignment with China, Russian space agency Roscosmos signed an agreement with its Chinese counterpart, the National Space Administration, to set up an International Scientific Lunar Station “with open access to all interested nations and international partners.” 

The move is also a rejection of the NASA’s invitation for Russia to join the Artemis project, the U.S. government-funded international human spaceflight program that aims to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by 2024, and to explore the lunar surface more thoroughly than ever before by employing advanced technologies. International partners include the European Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the Italian Space Agency (ASI), the Australian Space Agency (ASA), the UK Space Agency (UKSA), the United Arab Emirates Space Agency (UAESA), the State Space Agency of Ukraine, and the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB).

China’s ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui, meanwhile, declared that China is willing to maintain regular communications with Moscow about their respective US policies, while calling Sino-Russian military cooperation between two countries an “important pillar” of the two countries’ relationship and an “important safeguard” in maintaining strategic balance of the world.

Earlier this month, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged both sides should jointly fight against “color revolutions” and “set a model” in supporting each other and “building strategic mutual trust.” [CNBC][South China Morning Post] [AiR No.10, March/2021,2]

China offers vaccines to IOC

(zh) China has offered to provide the International Olympic Committee (IOC) with vaccine doses for participants of this year’s Tokyo Olympics and the Beijing 2022 Winter Games. IOC President Thomas Bach confirmed the offer which marks a victory for China’s vaccine diplomacy.

Olympics Minister Tamayo Marukawa, meanwhile, declared that Japanese athletes at the Tokyo Games will not be eligible for Chinese vaccines as Japan has not approved them.

China’s offer to the IOC comes amid calls for boycotts of its Winter Games in 2022 in protest of Beijing’s treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang. [CBC][Guardian][Reuters]

China-Canada relations: Trial of two Canadians for alleged espionage soon to begin

(zh) China will reportedly soon hold the first trial for the two Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, who have been detained for two years on espionage charges. Canada said it is deeply concerned by China’s arbitrary detention and was "not aware of any set timeline for the trials."

Canada claims that the detention of its two citizens is a retaliatory response of China to Canada’s detention of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer, on request of the US which accuses her of misleading British HSBC Holdings about the Chinese tech giant’s business dealings with Iran, which is under US sanctions. China has consistently denied any linkage to Meng’s detention. [CNN][South China Morning Post] 

Cross-Strait relations: Kuomintang heavyweights abandon ‘one country, two systems’

(dql/zh) Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou of the Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has critically commented on China’s push for an electoral reform in Hong Kong, arguing that with the reform the ‘one country, two systems’ formular which China’s upholds for a future re-unification with Taiwan has “officially passed into history”. His remark reflects growing development over the past years within the traditionally Beijing-friendly KMT to distance itself from Beijing. [Hong Kong Free Press]

Similarly, KMT chairman Johnny Chiang made clear in an interview earlier this month that “one country, two systems” has no market in Taiwan citing Taiwanese citizens’ appreciation of their freedoms. [Reuters]

Speaking at the National People’s Congress plenary session, China’s Premier Li Keqiang, however, insisted that only on the basis of the one-China principle and the ‘1992 Consensus’, Beijing welcomed dialogue with “any political party or group from Taiwan.”

Official exchanges between Taipei and Beijing have been suspended since pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen came to office and since then consistently refused to embrace ‘1992 consensus,’ to eventually to declare in 2019: “As president of the Republic of China, I must solemnly emphasize that we have never accepted the ‘1992 Consensus.’ The fundamental reason is because the Beijing authorities’ definition of the ‘1992 Consensus’ is ‘one China’ and ‘one country, two systems.’ […] Here, I want to reiterate that Taiwan absolutely will not accept ‘one country, two systems.’

For an interpretation of Tsai’s recent reshuffle in leadership positions in Taiwan’s defence and security team, see Corey Lee Bell who argues in the [Strategist] that the decision to appoint Chiu Kuo-cheng, a former director of the National Security Bureau, as new defense minister is a response to China’s “unrestricted warfare,” which has “confounded the conventional dichotomy between kinetic and information warfare.”

Taiwan-US relations: Strengthening relations

(zh) The past week saw several moves reflecting continued efforts to strengthen US-Taiwan relations.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that he will invite Taiwan to the ‘Summit for Democracy’ which President Biden pledged to host during his election campaign. Calling Taiwan “a strong democracy,” and “a very strong technological power,” he added that Taiwan was “a country that can contribute to the world, not just to its own people.” By referring to Taiwan as ‘country’, Blinken broke with an unwritten rule to avoid using the term ‘country’ for the self-ruled island as part of the US commitment to Beijing's so-called "One China Policy," raising the question whether it marks a new stage in US-Taiwan relations or just a slip of the tongue.  [Taiwan News 1][Taiwan News 2]

Meanwhile, Washington and Taipei launched a partnership on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), while the US Navy sent its Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John Finn to conduct a routine Taiwan Strait transit. It was the third transit conducted by the Seventh Fleet since the Biden administration took office and amid warnings of Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, that Taiwan could be the first potential target of China’s military aggression in the next five to 10 years. [Focus Taiwan 1][South China Morning Post] [Focus Taiwan 2]

Furthermore, US Congress members reintroduced the Taiwan Fellowship Act, which calls for the creation of a program allowing US federal government employees to study and work in Taiwan for up to two years. [Taipei Times]

James Lee in [East Asia Forum] points out that supply chain plays a key role in US strategy toward the Taiwan Strait, arguing that the US dependence on the island’s supply chain – for example in the semiconductor industry –, can be seen as enhancing US deterrence in the Strait without the risks associated with strategic clarity. The US would maintain its strategic ambiguity – declining to clearly state its stance on Taiwan – and let the market increase economic leverage without breaching the One-China principle.

China-Kenya relations: Afristar’s railway operation ends

(zh) Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC) has announced it has successfully negotiated to terminate its contract with Chinese firm Africa Star Railway Operations Company (Afristar) for the operation of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and will assume SGR operation by May 2022. Under the initial contract, Afristar was awarded a 10-year operation and maintenance contract for the 592km SGR by KRC in 2017 but with revision or termination of the contract every five years.

The contract for Afristar to run SGR is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. However, the East African country has found itself trapped in the debts for SGR as the railway failed to meet passenger and cargo volume targets and now is further hit by the economic downturn brought by the pandemic. Earlier, Kenya's parliament had warned that SGR could be forced to halt operation after KRC defaulted its $350 million payment to Afristar and had suggested renegotiating the debts and the terms of payment. [Africa Report][IRJ][South China Morning Post]

US senior envoys to visit South Korea this week

(nm) US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin are scheduled to visit Seoul on Wednesday for a two-day visit, embarking on the first overseas trip by senior members of the Biden administration. The two are expected to hold a two-plus-two-meeting with their respective South Korean counterparts, Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Defense Minister Suh Wook, after their Asia trip in Japan on Monday.

Japan and South Korea are the US’ most important allies in the region and the visit is seen by many as a chance to establish ground rules and strengthen an allyship prior to a possible confrontation with Beijing. Diplomatic observers also see the meetings as a way to mediate in a dispute between Japan and South Korea over both historic war-time-related issues as well as current tensions over export controls, thus strengthening the trilateral partnership. This, in turn, supposedly allows for addressing problems in relation to North Korea and China, as well. [Korea Times]

The US’ row of diplomatic efforts started on Friday with a virtual summit of the so-called Quad allies – Australia, India, and Japan. In that meeting, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the denuclearization of North Korea and stressed the need to resolve the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by the North. South Korea, meanwhile, said it would consider joining the regional security forum in an “transparent, open, and inclusive” manner. The nation has previously been reluctant to join the forum, which was established in 2007 to counter growing power by China, as China is South Korea’s largest trading partner. [New York Times 1, $] [Yonhap 1] [Yonhap 2]

The meeting is also expected to conclude a defence-cost sharing deal between Washington and Seoul relating to the stationing of about 28,500 US troops. After a year and a half of stalled negotiations under the Trump administration over the share of costs that Seoul was to shoulder, the two allies had eventually agreed to increase South Korea’s payment by 13.9 percent. [New York Times 2, $] [The Korea Herald 1]

For an evaluation of the future of US-ROK relations after the cost-sharing deal and South Korea’s foreign policy for the remainder of President Moon Jae-in’s administration, see [The Diplomat].

Last week, Blinken also confirmed that the US will not ease its sanctions on Iran, including the release of about $7 billion in Iranian funds currently frozen in South Korean banks, until Iran comes back into compliance with its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the well-known nuclear deal. He thereby flatly dismissed the possibility opened by South Korea to release about $1 billion of said funds for humanitarian purposes, should the US agree. The funds have been frozen in South Korea since shortly after the US quit the nuclear deal under the Trump administration in May 2018. Since assuming office in January, the Biden administration has been urging Iran to comply with the deal, stating the US would then also re-enter the agreement. [The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea moves to ban military exports to Myanmar

(nm) In response to the military coup and violent crackdown of pro-democracy protests in Myanmar, South Korea has moved to suspend defense exchanges, ban arms exports to the country, and reconsider its development assistance, according to the foreign ministry last week. Simultaneously, it declared to allow Myanmar nationals to remain in South Korea on humanitarian grounds until conditions stabilize. Approximately 25,000 Myanmar nationals will be covered by the special permits. 

While the last defense export from South Korea to Myanmar was issued in 2019, Seoul still spends millions of dollars on development projects in the Southeast Asian country. The ministry said it would reconsider some of the cooperation, but would continue to fund projects that are directly related to the livelihood of the population and humanitarian aid. [Yonhap 1] [Yonhap 2] [Reuters]

Last week, Burmese residents and some Democratic Party lawmakers also came together to give a press conference in front of the Myanmar Embassy in Seoul, calling for the revival of democracy and holding up three-fingered signs as a symbol of resistance and solidarity for the people in Myanmar. South Korean and Australian foreign ministers also came together last week to discuss a coordinated approach to the situation in Myanmar, in addition to other issues such as the upcoming G7-summit. [The Korea Herald 1] [The Korea Herald 2]

UN official calls for international action on North Korea’s human rights violations  

(nm) United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea Tomás Ojea Quintana has called on the international community to direct attention to possible crimes against humanity by North Korea and urged the UN Security Council to refer the situation to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for prosecution.

In presenting his latest report, Ojea Quintana voiced concern over the drastic measures taken by North Korea to contain the spread of Covid-19, which have exacerbated economic hardships and abuses against citizens, including severe punishments for breaking lockdown orders. He also said he had received information confirming the findings of a landmark 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry on several grave human rights violations, including but not limited to extermination, enslavement, torture, and sexual violence. He further told the Human Rights Council in Geneva, “The urgency to stop violations of such a scale, gravity and nature cannot take a back seat to national interests or geopolitical interests,” further stating he believes “that the Security Council bears responsibility for its inaction against the continuation of crimes against humanity in the DPR Korea.” [Reuters 1]

Following the report, four lawmakers from the South Korean main opposition People Power Party (PPP) met up with Unification Minister Lee In-young to call for greater efforts in achieving tangible improvements in North Korea’s human rights situation, including the expedited implementation of the North Korean Human Rights Act, which was passed by the National Assembly in 2016. They further protested the delayed launch of a state-run human rights foundation which the same act calls for. The launch of the foundation, which is supposed to allow South Korea to monitor abuses in the North, was delayed by political differences over the appointment of board members. Ojea Quintana had also urged the South to enforce the same act, as well as to take action in relation to the North’s rights violations in nuclear talks and to seek economic and humanitarian exchanges in a human rights-based framework. [The Korea Herald 1] [Yonhap 1] [The Korea Herald 2]

Meanwhile, the US Biden administration has tried to restart negotiations with North Korea over the fate of its nuclear programme, but has not heard back from the isolated country, according to a White House press secretary on Monday, confirming earlier reports by Reuters. The administration is currently undergoing an entire review of its North Korea policy and the failed attempt to reach out has raised questions as to how Biden will address Pyongyang and the possibility of nuclear weapons. According to South Korea’s unification ministry, the US had first consulted with the South before attempting to reach North Korea. [New York Times, $] [Yonhap 2] [Korea Times, opinion] [Reuters 2]

Leaders of United States, Japan, India, and Australia meet in first-ever 'Quad' summit

(lm) The leaders of the United States, Japan, India and Australia met in a virtual summit on March 12, at a time when all four countries see heightened tensions with China over a variety of issues. The meeting marked the first time that talks have been held between the heads of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition seen as a potential counterweight to growing Chinese influence and alleged assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. The collation is viewed warily by Beijing, which denounced it as an anti-China bloc. [CNN] [The Guardian]

Topics discussed during the virtual summit included supply chains, maritime security, and climate change. Notably, member states announced a partnership whereby Japan and the United States will finance manufacturing in India of the coronavirus vaccines from American drug makers Novavax Inc and Johnson & Johnson, with Australia handling the distribution among Southeast Asian and Pacific nations. While the move primarily aims at reducing manufacturing backlogs, it is worth recollecting that India in the past has urged other Quad members to invest in its vaccine production capacity to counter China’s widening vaccine diplomacy [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post 1]

The leaders also put their stamp on the creation of three new working groups. The first one will comprise of vaccine experts to devise the implementation plan, followed by two other working groups on climate change, and critical and emerging technology. [The White House]

In the run-up to the virtual summit, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi held a phone conversation on March 9 – the first since September last year – and agreed to step up bilateral cooperation to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific. [South China Morning Post 2]

Further, US Navy Admiral Philip S. Davidson - commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command – told US lawmakers at a congressional hearing on March 9 that China's aggression along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) had 'opened India’s eyes to strategic cooperation' and would therefore provide an opportunity for the other Quad members states to strengthen ties with New Delhi. [Hindustan Times]

US Secretary of Defense scheduled to visit India this month

(lm) US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is scheduled to visit India later next week to further strengthen a growing bilateral defense cooperation. During his visit three-day visit starting on March 19, Austin is expected to meet Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and other senior national security leaders. This is the first India trip by a top official of the new US Biden-Harris Administration. [The Hindu]

Speaking at the headquarters of the United States Indo-Pacific Command on Hawaii on March 13, Austin said he was travelling to Japan, South Korea, and India to strengthen 'alliances and partnerships' as well as to foster “credible deterrence” against China. [The Times of India]

Notably, the visit will take place a week after the first virtual summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition seen as a potential counterweight to growing Chinese influence and alleged assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific [see article above].

China enhances ISTAR capabilities of its border defense troops in Tibet

(lm) Chinese state-owned media revealed on March 5 that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Tibet Military Command is enhancing the Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities of its border defense troops. Video footage show soldiers operating two recently delivered sensor systems at the Xiao border post, which is located near the strategic Bum La Pass, which was used by the PLA in 1962 to invade India during the 1962 Sino-Indian War. [The EurAsian Times] [Janes]

After nine months of fitful progress to resolve their high-altitude border stand-off, India and China last month completed the pull-back of troops from the southern and northern shores of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 4,242m. [AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]

Pakistan assures Uzbekistan of access to its ports

(lm) Pakistan has assured Uzbekistan of providing access to its two ports - Karachi and Gwadar - in a bid to enhance regional connectivity and trade. An announcement in this regard was made by Prime Minister Imran Khan on March 10, the second and final day of a two-day visit of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Kamilov to Islamabad. [Dawn]

The move would provide Uzbekistan, which currently relies on Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, with a cheap transit alternative. Islamabad, in turn, aims to expand its footprint in Central Asia by gaining access to the economies of neighboring countries and redirecting their trade through Pakistani ports. Turkmenistan, another landlocked but resource-rich region in Central Asia had also expressed its keen interest in connecting with Pakistan’s warm water ports – most notably the China-operated Gwadar port. [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]

In December last year, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan agreed on a roadmap for the construction of a $4.8 billion trilateral railway project connecting Mazar-e-Sharif, Pehswar and Kabul. Because the security situation in Afghanistan is of central concern in the region, Uzbekistan has been engaging with the Taliban’s political leadership for some years, in what is being seen as seeking assurance for the safety of their investment. At the same time, Uzbekistan is also planning an alternative route, which connects the country with Pakistan via the Karakorum Pass, bypassing Afghanistan.

Notably, the announcement comes shortly after Uzbekistan, alongside other countries, had joined India on March 4 in commemorating ‘Chabahar Day’. Chabahar Port is being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan to boost trade ties among the three countries. Located on Iran's energy-rich southern coast, it is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, and thus can be easily accessed from India’s western coast, bypassing Pakistan. [AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2]

Indian Defense Ministry to take up major procurement deals for armed drones, submarines in April

(lm) Multi-billion dollar deals for 30 armed drones from the United States and six advanced submarines under Project-75I are likely to be taken by the Defense Acquisition Council (DAC) under the chairmanship of Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in April for approval. [The Hindu] [South China Morning Post]

India has long been planning to purchase 30 armed versions of the US-made MQ-9B Predator drones – ten for each service – but the process has been repeatedly delayed over the last couple of years, as New Delhi refused to succumb to the Washington’s constant push of concluding the deal. The US have given in principle approval for the sale of these armed drones to India sometime back and the deal came up for discussion third edition of the India-US 2+2 dialogue last October [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. In November, then, the Indian Navy leased two unarmed MQ-9 Predators as border tensions with China threatened to spin into a full-blown conflict but decided not to deploy the drones after the Air Force expressed apprehension about drones manned by US personnel flying over the border.

A follow-on project of India’s Project 75 [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3], Project 75I includes the acquisition of six stealth submarines through the Strategic Partnership (SP) model of the Defense Acquisition Procedure (DAP), which aims to promote the role of Indian industry in defense manufacturing and build a domestic defense industrial ecosystem.

Therefore, the submarine deal exemplifies the 'Make in India' strategy pursued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. To reduce India’s dependence on exports from countries like the US and China, the initiative seeks to increase investment in domestic industries—in manufacturing, it aims to create 100 million new jobs by 2022. Defense also forms a key industry in this program, and the nation’s 2021-22 defense budget allocates 64 percent of its 'modernization budget' for purchases exclusively from the domestic sector [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Separately, the Indian Army has leased four Heron unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) made by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for possible deployment along the 3,488-km India-China border. During the Army Day parade held in New Delhi this January, the Indian Army for the first time had demonstrated its intend to deploy unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) for future offensive military operations, including Kamikaze strikes and supplying troops closest to the area of conflict with equipment [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]. [Mint]

India also commissioned its third diesel electric submarine, the INS Karanj, on March 10 - the third of six Kalvari-type submarines that New Delhi plans to add to its navy and the first built entirely by an Indian company. [Hindustan Times]

Indian Prime Minister Modi and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia hold phone conversation

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Modi held a phone conversation on March 10 with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the son of King Salman and Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler. During their conversation, the two leaders agreed on supporting each other in fighting the coronavirus pandemic, and reviewed the functioning of the bilateral strategic partnership. [Hindustan Times]

Since both sides in 2010 had raised bilateral relations to a strategic partnership covering security, economic, defense, and political, India-Saudi defense ties have been on the upswing. While Saudi Arabia has in recent years actively participated in the region’s overall maritime security, the first bilateral naval exercise, originally scheduled for March 2020, had to be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, a contingent of the Indian Army is scheduled to travel to the Kingdom in the second half of this year to participate in a joint military exercise.

Meanwhile, the United States overtook Saudi Arabia as India’s second biggest oil supplier of the month, as refiners boosted cheaper US crude purchase to record levels to offset a supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+. Saudi Arabia, which has consistently been one of India’s top two suppliers, slipped to No. 4 for the first time since at least January 2006. [Reuters]

Bangladesh criticizes international community nor not doing enough to repatriate Rohingya refugees

(lm) Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momin has appealed to the international community to work sincerely, instead of paying ‘lip service’ regarding the repatriation of Rohingyas refugees to their home country Myanmar. Addressing a discussion at the Foreign Service Academy in the capital Dhaka on March 8, the foreign minister also urged countries to re-evaluate their commercial ties with Myanmar, and criticized that some countries had even increased their trade volume with Myanmar since the military crackdown on the Muslim Rohingya that began in August 2017. [The Daily Star]

Momin also took a potshot at international organizations and rights groups that had criticized Bangladesh’s decision to send some of the refugees to a remote island in the Bay of Bengal. Since early December, authorities have relocated about 10,000 Rohingya to Bhasan Char, an island specifically developed to accommodate 100,000 of the 1 million Rohingya [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. Bangladesh has repeatedly justified the move saying it would ease chronic overcrowding in sprawling refugee camps of Cox’s Bazar [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2].

IMF says it is closely monitoring Sri Lanka’s financial developments

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it was closely monitoring recent economic policy financial developments in Sri Lanka, including Colombo’s recent agreement on a currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China. Last week, China had approved a $1.54 billion currency swap with Sri Lanka. [International Monetary Fund] [Reuters]

The IMF last year prematurely ended a loan program to Sri Lanka after disbursing $1.3 billion of an agreed $1.5 billion facility, leaving the South Asian nation scouting for ways to tide over the pandemic-induced downturn. Faced with low foreign-exchange reserves and looming debt repayments, Colombo then turned to China to negotiate further swaps and loans to build its reserves buffers, affirming Beijing as lender of the last resort [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2].

Colombo had previously sought a fresh currency swap deal with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, the RBI this February refused to provide the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) a further extension of an existing facility saying that the rollover would require Colombo having a successfully negotiated staff-level agreement for IMF program [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Bangladesh proposes strengthening intra-OIC trade, seeks Saudi investment

(lm) Bangladesh has urged Saudi Arabia to sign Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) for further enabling Saudi investors to invest in public–private partnership projects in the South Asian nation. Dhaka’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs proposed as much during a bilateral meeting wit his Saudi counterpart in Riyadh on March 7, Bangladesh Foreign Ministry said the following day. [The Financial Express]

During his three-day working visit to Saudi Arabia, the Bangladeshi diplomat also met with the Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Yousef Al-Othaimeen, on March 8. During the meeting, the two sides reviewed areas and prospects of close cooperation between the OIC and Bangladesh. The meeting followed on a visit by a five-member delegation two weeks earlier to take stock of the situation of Rohingya refugees on the ground. At the time, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen had urged the OIC to help start the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to their home country Myanmar. [Prothom Alo]

India summons British envoy over 'unwarranted' criticism of farm protests

(lm) India’s Foreign Ministry said on March 9 it had summoned the United Kingdom’s high commissioner over what it called ‘unwarranted and tendentious discussion’ of Indian agriculture reform in the British parliament. [The Straits Times]

Three new agricultural laws introduced by Prime Minister Modi’s government late last year have led to months of protests on the outskirts of New Delhi where tens of thousands of farmers have camped since last November [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1].

India summoned Canada’s envoy last December following critical comments by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The same month, thirty-six British lawmakers from various parties – including some of Indian origin and others representing many constituents with links in the Indian state of Punjab – have written to British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, asking him to raise the issue of farmers’ agitation with the Narendra Modi government. [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]

Indian warship pays goodwill visit to Mauritius

(lm) Ahead of Mauritius’ National Day celebrations on March 12, a large amphibious warfare vessel currently deployed in the larger Indian Ocean Region (IOR) the Indian Navy visited Port Louis for a three-day stay. During its visit, the ship jointly patrolled the island nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) together with the Mauritian National Coast Guard, and participated in the National Day celebrations. [South Asia Monitor]

India and Mauritius signed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CEPCA) earlier this month - New Delhi’s first such agreement with an African country – to provide preferential access to several items that cater to market requirements on both sides. Mauritius also signed a $100 million Line of Credit agreement to enable the procurement of defense assets from India. [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

Regional meeting to discuss situation of migrants in the pandemic

(nd) According to a recent statement by a senior UN official, stigmatized and stranded migrants should be vaccinated promptly and valued for the region’s economic recovery. The Asia-Pacific’s migrant workforce comprises 40 % of the world’s migrants. Due to the pandemic, many lost their livelihoods, strander due to closed borders, facing discrimination and xenophobia, or were forcibly returned to their home countries. Due to their dense living situation the nature of job primarily in the service industry, migrants are specifically vulnerable to a Covid-19 infection. Thailand’s foreign minister Don Pramudwinai admitted that misinformation and insensitive messaging resulted in a widespread believe that migrants were a threat to public health, cutting them off access to health services. In December, a rise in Covid-19 cases at the country’s largest sea food market in Samut Sakhon, home to a large number of migrants from Myanmar, was blamed on foreign workers entering illegally.

The meeting, which was held in Bangkok, aims to identify challenges in implementing the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, a non-legally binding intergovernmental agreement struck in 2018, a first ever UN global approach to international migration.

In the wake of the coup in Myanmar, both India and Thailand have so far closed their borders for Myanmar refugees, potentially in violation of international law, which states to return no one to a country where they are likely to face persecution, torture, or other serious harm. [Benarnews]

Cambodia: CNRP member arrested over Chinese vaccine criticism

(nd) Following the criticism of the European Parliament (EP) and its call to “restore” democracy in the Kingdom, the government and ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) defended the democracy situation in Cambodia.

The EP adopted three resolutions over the human rights situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bahrain and Cambodia. In the case of Cambodia, the EP urged the government to stop harassing, intimidating and charging members of the political opposition, trade unionists, human rights defenders, the media and civil society actors with crimes for “politically motivated reasons”, and to refrain from unnecessary and excessive force against those engaged in peaceful protests.

In return, Cambodia’s Ministry of Justice said that the EP’s action on Cambodia is a “politically motivated” decision, not oriented at human rights or law, and taken on behalf of rights groups. Further, it stated: “The Royal Government of Cambodia is not a colony of the European Parliament” and “Your democracy and respect for human rights are not good yet but you want to guide and discipline other countries”, referring to the injustice of colonial history.

The EP also called on the authorities to null recent sentences against opposition figures in mass trials in absentia, and cited serious concerns over governmental measures and acts of harassment against independent media outlets and journalists. In his response, the spokesman defended the sovereignty of the judiciary. [Khmer Times]

Indonesia’s position between China and the US

Besides achieving more unity in the ASEAN bloc, Indonesia’s effort to find a peaceful solution in Myanmar is also a means to showcase its democratic credentials with the Biden administration, analysts say. ASEAN has recently found itself in a a multi-country power struggle, with China, the US, India and Japan aiming at a greater influence in the region.

Kurt Campbell, the architect of former US President Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’, is now the Indo-Pacific coordinator on the National Security Council. Likely, Indonesia is expected to play a leading role in the region, which Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi assumed with respect to Myanmar, engaging in a so-called shuttle diplomacy, holding talks with regional and international leaders. For Indonesia, the Myanmar coup shall not result in further US-Chinese tensions, having enjoyed more than 70 years of bilateral relationships with both major powers. Despite needing US support amid Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, Indonesia aims to diversify its strategic partners, and does have stronger economic ties with China than the US. Also, Chinese support on infrastructure projects, a key pillar of President Joko Widodo’s agenda, is much higher, being the second largest foreign investor in Indonesia 2020 with a total realized investment of US$4.8 billion. [South China Morning Post]

Indonesia, Germany to fund green infrastructure projects

(nd) Germany will fund green infrastructure projects in Indonesia to reduce carbon emissions and promote energy efficiency. €2.5 billion ($2.9bn) will be distributed over 5 years through German National bank (KfW). Part of the scheme will be technology transfer and a campaign to promote public awareness. Indonesia’s government announced in 2017 to reduce marine waste by 70% by 2025. [Pinsent Masons]

Cambodia, South Korea to invest in mine clearance

(nd) South Korea has announced to fund Cambodia’s mine clearance efforts with $10 million from 2021 to 2025.It forms part of the Cambodian Mine Action and Victims Assistance Authority (CMAA) and is also supported by Australia, New Zealand, UNDP and the government. Mines severely affect the lives and food security of residents, their access to safe water, adequate housing, safe and secure land for cultivation and irrigation, roads. Part of the project are immediate emergency response and medical treatment, physical rehabilitation and therapy, socio-economic inclusion and mine risk education. [Khmer Times]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

17 March 2021 @ 3:30 - 5:00 pm ET, American Enterprise Institute, USA

Election Day in the Netherlands 

The Netherlands will hold general elections on March 17. While the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has taken center stage during the campaign, the election results will have important implications for a range of other issues, including environmental policy and Dutch attitudes toward the European Union. Will Prime Minister Rutte’s center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy be able to stare down the wide range of other parties that flourish in the Dutch proportional-representation system? 

Please find more information at [AEI].

17 March 2021 @ 4:00 - 5:15 pm ET, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

Tech & Democracy Workshop: Ensuring Equitable Access to New Political Tools and Technologies

This event will discuss real-world strategies for ensuring that technologies can better fulfill their transformational promises to frontline communities while also promoting innovation and sustainability

Please register here: [ASH]

18 March 2021 @ 10:00 - 10:45 pm ET, Center For Strategic & International Studies, USA

Accelerating 5G in the United States

This event will discuss the actions the United States should take to accelerate 5G in the country and the recent 5G Strategy published by the CSIS Working Group on Trust and Security in 5G Networks, which provides ideas and recommendations on how to speed infrastructure deployment, how to ensure supply chain security, and how to accelerate 5G use.

More about the event at [CSIS].

18 March 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:30 pm GMT+2, The South African Institute of International Affairs, Africa

How do African states vote on Human Rights issues? 

South Africa celebrates Human Rights Day on 21 March. But do all African countries think and act the same way when it comes to international human rights issues? Do they vote as a bloc in the United Nations Human Rights Council? And what can we learn from a deep dive into their conduct at the HRC? Find answers to these questions at this webinar.

For more information see, [SAIIA].

18 March 2021 @ 4:00 - 5:00 pm GMT, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Australia

 Are you ready for the new critical infrastructure law?

The Security Legislation Amendment (Critical Infrastructure) Bill seeks to expand the scope of the Critical Infrastructure Act to cover critical infrastructure entities in a wider range of sectors, including health, financial and education services. The Bill further seeks to introduce mandatory cyber incident reporting requirements and enhanced cybersecurity obligations. Join this event to the impact of the changes.

Please register here: [ASPI]

18 March 2021 @ 7:00 pm ET, Asia Society, USA  

Beijing’s Early Reactions to the Biden Administration 

This webinar discusses the development of US-China relations in 2020 as a year that fundamentally altered the direction of US-Sino relations and world affairs, as well as where these relations are headed in 2021. It will start out with a keynote speech on Beijing’s early reactions to the Biden administration.  

If you are interested in this event, please follow [Asia Society].

18 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm ET, Hudson Institute, USA  

US-Australia Series: China and the Weaponization of Information 

A panel of leading experts will take a closer look at the defense and national security implications of China’s rise as an information superpower, how Australia and the US approach them, and explore how the two nations can stay ahead of the challenge posed by China. It is the first of a series of events. 

Please visit [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

19 March 2021 @ 10:00 am MST, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, Malaysia 

Race Relations and Human Rights – Bridging the Gap 

This webinar sets out by asking why racial discrimination happens in Malaysia and how race and human rights are related. Experts will also discuss the importance of human rights education, misinformation, discriminatory practices, and, above all, how to eliminate racial discrimination. 

For more information and registration, please see [IDEAS].

19 March 2021 @ 12:00 pm ET, Hudson Institute, USA  

Rethinking Climate Change and Environmental Issues: A Conservative Approach

You can join members of parliaments from Canada, the UK, and the US in exploring conservative approaches to climate change and environmental protection, as conservatives in many countries have started to craft their own responses to a field that has traditionally been shaped by the left. 

Please see [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

19 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden 

American Politics: the State of American Democracy 

From role model for democracy and constitution-building to declines in international democracy ratings and faith in the integrity of presidential elections in recent years, as well as low trust in democratic institutions, this webinar will look at the state of American democracy, asking: Does every vote count? Has former President Donald Trump had any lasting impact on American democracy? And what are the international implications of all this?

See [UI] for more information. 

19 March 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:30 am GMT+2, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore 

The February 1 Coup Aftermath in Myanmar: Impact, Issues, Implications 

This event will discuss the desperate situation in which Myanmar finds itself in the context of the mounting need for mediation and a coordinated international response to Myanmar’s crisis.

Please register here: [YSI]

22 March 2021 @ 11:00 - 12:00 pm ET, Middle East Institute, US

Ten Years After: Syrian Artists Reflect on the Anniversary of the Syrian Revolution

This event will discuss how artists' diverse imagery help shape our understanding of the magnitude and complexity of the past decade with beauty, grace and humanity.

Please register here: [MEI]

22 March 2021 @ 2:30 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India   

Workshop on: Re-Form: Lessons for Urban Governance Futures from the Pandemic

Based on a study on Pandemics and Urban Planning: Analysis of Evidence & Policy undertaken by the CPR, this workshop will present recommendations on how governments in India can respond to pandemics and build resilience by reshaping urban policies. The workshop aims to engage participants in cross-learning between stakeholders, policymakers, researchers, and civil society actors.  

Please follow [CPR] for more information. 

22 March 2021 @ 2:30 pm CET, Institut Montaigne, France

European Summit on Islamist Radicalization and the Terrorist Threat 

This event will be dedicated to European jihadism, asking: Who are the European Jihadists? What is the State of the Terrorist Threat in Europe? And how to improve coordination in the fight against terrorism? 

For more information and registration, please visit [Institut Montaigne]. 

22/23 March 2021 @ 2:45 pm CET, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany   

PEGNet Conference 2021 

This two-day event will provide a platform for leading development scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers to reflect on relevant topics in the field of development economics. It also features a workshop for PhD students from developing countries who wish to discuss their research with senior researchers in small groups.  

For more information and registration, please visit [GIGA]. 

23 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm CET, Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, Spain    

European foreign policy in turbulent times: Does differentiation make the EU a stronger actor? 

While many have called for a stronger EU foreign policy, diverging interests of member states still make such cooperation difficult. Simultaneously, various modes of differentiation within the EU framework and informal collaborations among some EU members have contributed to Europe’s role in world politics. In light of this, this event considers how differentiation has advanced the EU’s role on the global stage, if this differentiation is inevitable due to Brexit, and what its dangers are.  

Please visit [CIBOD] for more information. 

23 March 2021 @ 2:15 pm JST, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan     

Carbon neutrality: The future of Asia-Pacific – Contribution to the transition toward decarbonisation 

In the lead-up to COP26, this event seeks to contribute to the transition to decarbonisation in the Asia Pacific region by exploring various policy pathways, in addition to technologies, finance, capacity building, and partnerships. It brings together national and local governments with private sector actors. 

If you are interested in this event, see [IGES] for more information. 

23 March 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy  

China after COVID-19: Economic Revival and Challenges to the World 

As China has managed to register economic growth despite the coronavirus pandemic hitting the country, this two-part event will take a closer look at lessons to be learned from China and future projections of the nation’s global stance. This second part of the event will feature a roundtable on new rules of China’s Engagement in the World. 

For more information, please see [ISPI]. 

23 March 2021 @ 1:30 pm CET, Clingendael, the Netherlands    

Dealing with China on high-tech issues | Towards a democratic technology alliance? 

This is the third event of a series on how to deal with China and high-tech issues and will ask in particular if Europe should try to construct a democratic tech alliance with its partners, or rather a summit of democracies? It will also consider how Europe and the US can come together as partners and overcome differences in their approaches. 

Please visit [Clingendael] for more information. 

23 March  2021 @ 9:00 - 10:30 am ET, Center for Global Development, USA

International Tax and Developing Countries 

This event will consider how developing countries can respond to the international tax challenges, and which measures may be appropriate for such countries.

Please register here: [CGD]

23 March 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm ET, Pacific Council On International Policy, USA

WHAT ARE THE GEOPOLITICS OF ILLEGAL, UNREPORTED, AND UNREGULATED FISHING? 

This online event will provide an overview of the global implications of the hollowing out of our ocean's most important and plentiful fish stocks, featuring Vice Admiral Linda Fagan of the U.S. Coast Guard. 

For more information, see [Pacific Council]. 

24 March, 2021 @ 5:00 - 6:00 pm EDT, Open Society Foundation, USa

Visual Rebellions: Reframing and Resisting Power Through Feminist Photography

This event will discuss how patriarchy continues to shape the world, as the crisis has disproportionately affected women, girls, and gender nonconforming people.

Please register here: [Opensociety]

24 March 2021 @ 12:30 pm AEDT, Australia-China Relations Institute, Australia  

“According to Sources…”: Unpacking National Security Reporting in Australia’s Discussion on the PRC 

This online workshop featuring former foreign correspondent Prof. Monica Attard and foreign affairs and national security correspondent Anthony Galloway will discuss the handling of sources requiring anonymity, both by Australian and international journalists as well as by readers. It takes a closer look at the ethical challenges, practices, and legislation, in particular in relation to reporting on the PRC. 

If you wish to join the discussion, please visit [UTS]. 

24/25 March 2021 @ 12:00 am ET, Hudson Institute, USA       

North Korean Threat Perception and the US-South Korea Alliance

As the Biden administration is undergoing a complete review of the US policy on North Korea, panelists will discuss North Korea, its threat perceptions, politics, and human rights. The first part of the two-day event examines the political-military dimensions (24/03), while the second part explores implications for policy and diplomacy (25/03). 

For more information, visit [Hudson Institute]. 

25 March 2021 @ 9:00 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France     

Towards a European Indo-Pacific strategy 

In this panel, experts will outline regional expectations towards Europe from an Indo-Pacific perspective by partners such as India, Japan, and Australia, while trying to formulate a pan-European approach to the Indo-Pacific, taking into account Europe’s own approach to multilateralism, the rule of law, and sovereignty. 

If you wish to join this event, please visit [ECFR] for more information and mandatory registration. 

25 March 2021 @ 2:15 pm JST, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan     

Zero Waste Solutions towards a Regenerative Asia-Pacific Region 

With the goal of moving to a waste-reducing closed-loop economy that fosters sustainable and resilient societies upon recovering from the global pandemic, this event tries to discuss how to implement zero waste cities, policies, and strategies through peer learning, as well as opportunities to strengthen relations from local to global actors. 

For more information, please see [IGES].

Recent book releases 

Nigel Inkster, The Great Decoupling: China, America and the Struggle for Technological Supremacy, Hurst, 304 pages, March 1, 2021, reviewed in [The Herald].

Lawrence T. Brown, The Black Butterfly: The Harmful Politics of Race and Space in America, Johns Hopkins University Press, 408 pages, January 26, 2021, reviewed in [Baltimore].

Mark D. West, Drunk Japan: Law and Alcohol in Japanese Society, Oxford University Press, 204 pages, March 11, 2020, briefly reviewed in [Booktopia].

Calls

Asian Law Institute invites to submit paper for the 18th ASLI Conference on "Law, Technology and Diversity in Asia", scheduled on 15- 7 September 2021. Deadline to submission is 30 March 2021. 

For more information, see [ASLI].

Jobs & positions

The National University of Singapore Centre for International Law is offering a position of Research Associate in Nuclear Law and Policy. For more information, see [NUS]

The University of Antwerp is accepting applications for Post-doctoral position in cyberviolence on social media. Deadline for application is April 18, 2021. For more detail, see [Academic positions].

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

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