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Deal Averts U.S.-Europe Trade War; China Seeks to Curb Overcapacity; 'Returnless Returns'

By Mark R. Long

 

WSJ VIDEO: Trump's agreement with Europe is his biggest trade deal so far. PHOTO: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The U.S. and Europe reached an agreement that averts a damaging trade war. 

The deal is the biggest so far in President Trump’s campaign to remake global trade through higher tariffs, the WSJ’s Kim Mackrael and Natalie Andrews write. Trump said the U.S. would set a baseline tariff of 15% on goods from its biggest trading partner, including autos. He said the EU had agreed to buy $750 billion worth of energy products from the U.S. and invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.

The terms suggest that 15% is likely a new minimum tariff level for most U.S. trading partners. This past week Trump reached a deal with Japan which also put the baseline tariff at 15%. The U.S. and EU appeared to differ on some details. Trump indicated that his global steel-and-aluminum tariffs--currently at 50%--would remain unchanged. The president of the European Commission said the two had agreed to a quota system that would keep tariffs lower for some EU metals exports.

  • Trump is increasingly focused on trying to strike an economic bargain with Beijing aimed at opening China to more American business and technology. (WSJ)
  • German business confidence inched up this month, a signal of resilience against U.S. tariffs. (WSJ)
  • French liquor company Rémy Cointreau said the impact of customs duties would be less severe than previously anticipated. (WSJ)
  • Trade talks with Canada aren't progressing well, Trump said, warning the country could face higher tariffs after his Aug. 1 deadline. (WSJ)
  • About 45% of U.S. consumers slowed or stopped shopping on China-based platforms such as Shein and Temu after the end of the de minimis tariff exemption, a 3PL Radial survey shows. (Supply Chain Brain)
 

PHOTO: MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS

Volkswagen said Trump’s tariffs have cost it $1.5 billion. The Journal's Stephen Wilmot and Dominic Chopping write that the German automaker has a solution: An offer to the White House that could bring production of its Audi brand to the U.S. for the first time.

 

 
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Quotable

“They are not at the level where the global economy burns down.”

— Dmitry Grozoubinski, senior trade adviser at Aurora Macro Strategies, on 15% tariffs
 

Industrial Policy

An employee works at an automotive gear factory in Qingzhou City, China. PHOTO: CFOTO/DDP VIA ZUMA PRESS

Beijing is moving to curb excess industrial capacity that has fueled “disorderly” competition and worsened deflationary pressures. Chinese officials have recently warned against competition that has eaten into businesses’ profit margins. Similar messaging from ministries and regulators has stoked speculation that supply-side reform could be in the works that would address stagnant, near-zero price growth.

In the latest sign of stress for Chinese firms, new data show the nation’s industrial output slipped 1.8% in the first half from a year earlier, with a 4.3% drop in June alone. Some investors are betting on Beijing to roll out a comprehensive policy package similar to a decade ago, when it slashed production in sectors such as cement, steel and coal, a move that helped prop up factory-gate prices. However, economists say policymakers are in a tougher spot this time around, limiting space for aggressive capacity cuts.

 
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Reverse Logistics

A new study shows that 'returnless returns' can do more for companies than just save money on processing. PHOTO: MARK HERTZBERG/ZUMA PRESS

Retailers can save money when they tell a customer to keep an unwanted product instead of sending it back. Not only do companies not have to process these “returnless returns,” Lisa Ward writes, but they boost customer loyalty, and make buyers more likely to write a positive review, recommend the brand and repurchase items, a new study shows.

Researchers found that the way a company frames its returnless-return policy makes a difference. Highlighting the benefit to the consumer or the environment makes a better impression on shoppers. Suggesting that the buyer donate the unwanted item boosts a company’s appeal.

“We find that brands can really benefit from returnless returns if they act more communal than transactional,” says study co-author John Costello, at the University of Notre Dame.

 

Number of the Day

$880.99

Average rate to ship a container, by 20-foot-equivalent unit, from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast in the week ending July 25, down 6.4%, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.

 

In Other News

Demand for U.S. durable goods fell 9.3% in June, reversing much of May’s jump that was driven by new aircraft orders. (WSJ)

U.K. consumer sentiment worsened amid weak growth and high inflation. (WSJ)

British retail sales swung higher in June with sunny weather spurring spending on drinks and fuel. (WSJ)

Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 18% from 20%.

VW’s Traton is cutting production at some operations as tariff uncertainty restrains North American customers from new orders. (WSJ)

Ryder System posted growth in net income as demand for supply-chain services offset a slowdown in used-truck sales, but it cut the top end of its full-year forecast. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Saia’s second-quarter earnings and revenue beat analyst expectations. (Dow Jones Newswires)

French grocery company Carrefour said it would sell its money-losing Italian business. (WSJ)

Puma’s new CEO plans a brand reset after a profit warning pummeled the sporting-goods company’s shares. (WSJ)

LG Electronics’ quarterly earnings fell as competition intensified and tariffs boosted costs. (WSJ)

LVMH is in talks to sell the Marc Jacobs fashion brand for around $1 billion.

Further delays and disruptions are expected at Northern European ports in August and September as a wave of inbound containers from Asia arrives. (Journal of Commerce)

American Airlines took possession of its first Airbus SE A321XLR jet, but it will remain in Europe because a supply chain issue caused a shortage of seats. (Bloomberg)

FedEx plans to change how it calculates dimensional weights for packages in August, which could increase some shipping costs. (Supply Chain Dive)

The Surface Transportation Board launched merger resources pages on its website the day after Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern confirmed that they were in talks over a possible deal. (Trains.com)

The U.K. government cleared Kpler Holding’s $241 million acquisition of Spire Global’s maritime-data business. (TradeWinds)

A loaded bulk carrier narrowly avoided grounding after the vessel’s rudder broke off as it left a New Zealand port. (gCaptain)

Indian authorities stood down from the salvage of the Wan Hai 503, nearly two months after a deadly explosion and fire off the coast of Kerala state. (Seatrade Maritime News)

 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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