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March 8, 2021 - Brief Issue 163

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Experts Warn B.1.1.7. Surge Likely In U.S. (Health & Science)

Biden Administration Plans First National Testing System (Health & Science)

Scientists Underestimated Mutation Risk As They Race To Keep Up With Virus (Health & Science)

U.S. Accuses Russia of Spreading Vaccine Disinformation (Health & Science)

Austrian Region Becomes Real World Test of Vaccines Against Variant (Around the World)

 EMA to Evaluate Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine (Around the World)

New Zealand to Use Only Pfizer Vaccine; Auckland Emerges from Lockdown (Around the World)

Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Covid Relief Package (U.S. Government)

Cuomo Aides Rewrote Report on Nursing Home Deaths to Hide Their Extent (U.S. Government)

U.S. Economy Set to Power Global Recovery (U.S. Economy)

Children Made to Burn Masks at Idaho Anti-Mask Protest (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 28,999,265 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 525,035 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 359,724,291 tests and distributed 116,363,405 vaccine doses, with 90,351,750 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 116,879,152 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,594,064 deaths. At least 66,150,437 people have recovered from the virus.

Experts Warn B.1.1.7. Surge Likely In U.S.

Medical experts are warning the public not to forgo mask-wearing amid an exponential increase of the B.1.1.7. coronavirus variant within the U.S. "That strain is increasing exponentially. It's spiking up," Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious diseases specialist and epidemiologist, told CNN. "So we are probably right now on a tipping point of another surge,” she added. The B.1.1.7. variant, which was first identified in the U.K. late last year, has shown to be 59% to 74% more transmissible than the first novel coronavirus strain to reach U.S. shores at the onset of the pandemic. Inoculations, warned experts, are not moving fast enough to stop a new spike despite vast acceleration in vaccine distribution in recent weeks. 

"At 2.9 to 3 million doses of vaccine a day over the next six to 14 weeks, when this surge is likely to happen, is not going to really take care of the problem at all," Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. Osterholm added that the incidence of B.1.1.7. has increased from 4% of American cases last month to 30% to 40% today.  "And what we've seen in Europe, when we hit that 50% mark, you'll see cases surge,” he said (CNN).

Concerns over the B.1.1.7. variant continue as states increasingly loosen public health restrictions. As we noted last week, Texas’s Republican Governor Greg Abbott announced that he was reopening Texas and ending the state’s mask mandate, tweeting, “I just announced Texas is OPEN 100%. EVERYTHING. I also ended the statewide mask mandate.” Mississippi’s Republican Governor Tate Reeves announced he was ending his state’s mask mandate the same day but also urged people to keep wearing them. President Joe Biden slammed the governors' decisions as “neanderthal thinking.” On Wednesday, chief presidential medical advisor Anthony Fauci said it was "inexplicable why you would want to pull back now” (CNN).

Biden Administration Plans First National Testing System

The Biden Administration is planning to launch a $650 million private-public expansion of testing in schools and other congregate settings, sources told Politico. The program’s testing hubs will be used to coordinate and oversee the administration’s push to expand testing in K-8 schools, as well as other settings with a high risk of viral spread, such as homeless shelters. Officials from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) hope to launch the first hub in April. If implementation goes to plan, the first hub will conduct 150,000 tests by the end of its first month without drawing on existing capacity. “The coordinating center is going to have the responsibilities of coordinating with states, counties and local school districts on testing efforts for K-8 students within their region and ensure proper testing at laboratories,” HHS Testing and Diagnostic Working Group lead industry officer Steven Santos said on a Tuesday conference call between government officials and industry leaders, according to Politico. 

Santos also stressed that despite the acceleration of vaccine distribution and falling case numbers, increased testing remains critical. "With the vaccine available, there is a real opportunity to get to zero transmission and stay there,” he said. “But to do so we need to increase testing capacity and to continue to identify and stop spread. Maintaining high levels of testing as vaccination rolls out and transmission decreases is critical to controlling this pandemic and to preventing another wave." Former HHS Assistant Secretary Brett Giroir, who served under the Trump administration, told Politico that the concept had been discussed last summer but did not gain traction until the end of 2020. “We just couldn’t get it done in time, it’s a big thing: multiple coordinating centers, you can’t just turn that around in a week or two,” said Giroir. “They definitely added the money to it” (Politico).

Scientists Underestimated Mutation Risk As They Race To Keep Up With Virus

The Washington Post reported that after spending most of 2020 underestimating the risk of coronavirus mutations, scientists are now preoccupied with the threat of new strains undermining vaccination efforts. “We do have to come to terms with the fact that I’m pretty confident that SARS-CoV-2 is going to be more like influenza, which is with us all the time because the virus is changing, and we have to worry about keeping our vaccines updated,”evolutionary biologist Jesse Bloom told the Post. “On the other hand, I think that a year from now, it’s going to be much less of a problem,” he added. While scientists have always been aware of coronavirus mutations, the evolutionary changes observed in the virus did not appear to be a major problem until new versions began fueling spikes in the U.K., Brazil and South Africa in late autumn. The slew of new mutations presented the possibility that the virus was getting better at spreading while evading antibodies.

“If you really push virologists, and get them to be honest and not revisionist, the majority, if not all the individuals, in the community were saying, ‘It’ll probably be all right, it’ll probably be fine,’” said Paul Duprex, director of the Center for Vaccine Research at the University of Pittsburgh. Scientists had long been hopeful that the virus’ ability to “proofread” its genetic code when it multiplied would keep mutations to a minimum. However, the virus appears unable to proofread for missing sections of the genetic code, thus allowing mutations to take place through alterations known as deletions. Clues to this process have been observed in immunocompromised patients who host the virus for weeks or months longer than the time it normally takes for patients to either recover or die. 

“We’ve been underestimating the capacity of the virus to evolve since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Kevin McCarthy, a microbiologist at the University of Pittsburgh’s Vaccine Research Center. Bloom and other scientists are currently busy mapping potential “genetic escape routes” for future mutations that may hamper the effectiveness of vaccines. By identifying vulnerabilities before they become widespread, precautions, such as designing booster shots to cope with the changes, can be taken to blunt the impact. Sarah Cobey, who studies viral evolution at the University of Chicago, said she was hopeful that scientists would keep pace with coronavirus evolution. “There will be new variants and new ways in which the virus might be escaping our immune responses a little bit, but that’s the key — it’s probably not going to be that much,” she said (WaPo).

Vaccine IPO Faces Hurdles From Oxford University

Vaccitech Ltd., the Oxford-affiliated startup behind the AstraZeneca vaccine’s development, has found itself in conflict with the university as it plans an initial public offering (IPO), reported the Wall Street Journal. The firm is tussling with Oxford, which owns 10% of Vaccitech, over access to the contract signed between the university and AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company that produces and distributes the vaccine. 

According to Vaccitech, the contract between AstraZeneca and Oxford contains crucial financial and legal obligations needed to properly valuate the firm prior to the IPO. Under the terms of Vaccitech’s vaccine development deal with Oxford, the company does not own the rights to the vaccine and will instead receive 24% of the university’s royalties. As Oxford’s cut is dependent on its contract with AstraZeneca, which has promised not to profit off its first three billion doses, Vaccitech’s earning potential from the coronavirus vaccine remains murky. 

Sources also told the Journal that Vaccitech and Oxford are at a disagreement over how to characterize the firm’s role. Vaccitech reportedly wants Oxford’s formal help in highlighting the firm’s link to the university’s coronavirus research in order to better market itself. The conflict comes as Oxford seeks to overhaul its procedures for backing its startups. In recent decades, Oxford has fallen behind American counterparts, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University, in attracting capital and talent. In Vaccitech’s case, the company was founded in 2016 by two Oxford scientists. The University currently owns around 10% of the startup. Investors are largely interested in Vaccitech owing to the potential uses of the vaccine innovations it developed in the fight against the coronavirus. The hope is that the technology, which is owned by Vaccitech, can be used to develop medicine to fight hepatitis B, prostate cancer and human papillomavirus. Interested investors are said to include Gilead Sciences Inc. and Lilly Asia Ventures, although neither firm confirmed their potential involvement in talks. Vaccitech’s chief executive, Bill Enright, also declined to comment to the Journal (WSJ).

U.S. Accuses Russia of Spreading Vaccine Disinformation

The State Department on Sunday said that three online publications linked with Russian intelligence services have been seeking to undermine public trust in the Pfizer and Moderna coronavirus vaccines. The three outlets have “spread many types of disinformation, including about both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, as well as international organizations, military conflicts, protests, and any divisive issue that they can exploit,” said a State Department spokesperson, citing research from the State Department’s Global Engagement Center. The center identified one of the sites, News Front, as being run by the Russian Federal Security Bureau (FSB), while the other two, New Eastern Outlook and Oriental Review, are controlled by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). “The Department will continue to expose Russia’s nefarious activities online,” said the spokesperson. “We will also continue to work closely with our allies and partners to provide a global response to countering disinformation (Reuters).

A Global Engagement Center official told the Wall Street Journal that the websites used misleading and untrue statements to play up health risks associated with immunizations and questioned the vaccines’ fast development and approval process. He added that the outlets, although small, can be used by other media companies to amplify false narratives. “We can say these outlets are directly linked to Russian intelligence services,” the Global Engagement Center official said of the sites behind the disinformation campaign. “They’re all foreign-owned, based outside of the United States. They vary a lot in their reach, their tone, their audience, but they’re all part of the Russian propaganda and disinformation ecosystem.” Speaking with the Journal, a Kremlin spokesperson denied the accusations (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “DNA From Neanderthals Affects Vulnerability to Covid-19,” (Economist).

Around the World

Bonus Read: I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping,” (NYT). 

Europe

Austrian Region Becomes Real World Test of Vaccines Against Variant

Starting this week European authorities will offer the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine to every adult in the Schwaz district of Austria, kicking off a real world test of the efficacy of current vaccines against the variant known as B.1.351. The region, which is near the western Austrian city of Innsbruck, has been battered by a surge in infections due to the new variant and Austria’s chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, had been lobbying the European Union for extra doses to try to stop its spread (NYT). Last week, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, agreed to allocate 100,000 extra doses of the vaccine to Austria, in exchange for allowing a multinational team of scientists to collect data from the mass vaccination in Tyrol. “Our goal is to be able to massively halt, if not eradicate, the South African variant,” Günther Platter, the governor of Tyrol, said, announcing the project last Wednesday. “We want to protect the people from this variant.” Within the first 24 hours of registration being open more than 20,000 residents (about a third of those who were eligible) signed up to get their shots as part of the pilot program. “From a scientific point of view, it is an unbelievably important study where we can learn a lot,” Dr. Herwig Kollaritsch, a member of Austria’s immunization commission, said in an interview with the public broadcaster ORF. “It will also be beneficial to Pfizer, which is legitimate because these vaccines have not been on the market for very long and every day we acquire more knowledge that helps us to understand how to best use them,” Dr. Kollaritsch said.

EMA to Evaluate Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) received the first data for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine last Thursday and is now going through the evaluation and approval process (EMA). The vaccine has been politicized as some countries have already started using it to inoculate their citizens before any regulatory approval while other countries believe it is a ploy by Russia to widen political divides (BBC). Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have all sought to bypass the EMA’s assessment process and use the vaccine immediately. By contrast, some countries -- mostly those that were formerly under Soviet control like the Baltic states and Poland -- see the vaccine as a geopolitical tool designed to fracture the EU and are wary of using it on their citizens. Other EU members, like Germany, are supportive of the vaccine as long as it is met with EMA approval. "Geopolitics have nothing to do" with the EMA’s assessment of the vaccine, Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer said on Thursday (Politico). "That is based on the data that is provided by the company." Health experts initially criticized the vaccine, saying that it was developed in haste and did not hold up to accepted scientific standards, but a review of the vaccine published in The Lancet in February showed promising early data on the vaccine. 

Malta Adopts New Restrictions as Cases Climb

Malta has seen a record number of Covid-19 cases recently and as a result, Prime Minister Robert Abela  announced new restrictions at the end of last week (Times of Malta). Bars and clubs will remain closed, and restaurants and cafes will also be closed now and private family gatherings will now be limited to four households. The prime minister also urged the private sector to allow employees to work from home. Malta currently ranks fourth in the EU for the number of cases per 100,000 people and the Health Minister Chris Fearne said that the new uptick in cases is due to the B.1.1.7 variant of the virus that was first discovered in the U.K. Malta has vaccinated 13% of its population so far. 

All Italians Vaccinated by End of Summer 

Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza told state TV on Sunday that all Italians who want to be vaccinated against Covid-19 will be able to do so by the end of the summer. Italy expects to receive delivery of more than 50 million doses in the second quarter of this year, including the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine, whose approval by European Union medicine authorities is expected soon (AP). As of Sunday, 3.7 million people in Italy had received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, which is just over 5% of the population. Italy was the first country in Europe to face an outbreak of the coronavirus last year and has been struggling to keep case numbers down ever since. 

Asia Pacific

New Zealand to Use Only Pfizer Vaccine; Auckland Emerges from Lockdown

On Monday Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that New Zealand would only use the Pfizer vaccine to inoculate its population against the coronavirus. She said the decision was based on the vaccine’s effectiveness and that using a single vaccine would make it fairer for all New Zealanders (NZ Herald). The decision may also be related to the delay in getting regulatory approval for the vaccines; so far only Pfizer has been approved. Ardern said New Zealand has purchased 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough to inoculate all 5 million residents with the required two doses each (AP). She said most of the doses are expected to arrive in New Zealand during the second half of this year. New Zealand has so far completed inoculations of only a few thousand people, mainly border workers. New Zealand has mostly eradicated the virus but a recent cluster of infections put Auckland into a weeklong lockdown that just ended on Sunday (Reuters).

Japan’s Vaccine Rollout Faces Supply Shortages

Japan’s inoculation campaign has been off to a slow start due to a lack of supply of vaccines and a shortage of syringes. The campaign began three weeks ago but so far only 46,500 doses have been administered, mostly to frontline medical workers (Reuters). Japan set the goal of vaccinating everyone by the end of this year, but at the current rate, it would take 126 years to vaccinate its population of 126 million. By contrast, South Korea, which began its vaccination campaign a week after Japan, has administered almost seven times more shots so far.  

Vietnam Kicks Off Vaccination Campaign

On Monday Vietnam administered its first Covid-19 doses to frontline medical workers. Thousands of doctors, nurses, contact tracers, and security forces who handled quarantine duties lined up to receive their vaccines. The 100,000 doses were the first part of a 30 million dose order of the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University (AP). Vietnam expects to secure another 30 million doses through COVAX, the global initiative to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines to low- and middle-income countries. Diplomats, essential workers, teachers, senior citizens, and those with chronic illnesses are next in line to receive shots.

U.S. Government & Politics

Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Covid Relief Package

On Saturday, the Senate passed the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion Covid relief and stimulus package (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “the package is set to count among one of the largest rescue measures in U.S. history, reflecting Democrats’ pledges to erase disparities that long predate the deadly pandemic. The bill authorizes $1,400 checks to millions of low- and middle-income Americans, bolsters families by providing new yearly child tax benefits, boosts unemployment payments for workers still out of a job, and invests heavily in the country’s attempt to climb back from a public-health emergency that has devastated families, workers, students and businesses alike.” The bill passed on a party line vote with no Republican support. Biden stated, “I promised the American people help was on the way,” adding, “Today, I can say we’ve taken one more giant step of delivering on that promise.” 

However, as we covered in prior briefs, moderate Democratic senators succeeded in changing parts of the bill, including limiting eligibility for direct checks and nixing the inclusion of a hike to the minimum wage. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) pushed for reduced unemployment benefits, sparking tensions within the party as he suggested he’d work with Republicans to amend the bill. The Post writes, “Democrats ultimately resolved the stalemate with a deal that authorized the extra unemployment payments at $300 per week, a lower amount than the House approved, while extending the aid until early September. From there, party lawmakers banded together to jettison dozens of Republican amendments that would have dramatically slashed spending, struck funds set aside for transit systems and local governments or otherwise poisoned the bill.” Manchin’s effort drew harsh criticism (Politico). In an interview on the process, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) stated, “We had what we thought was an agreement. But then Joe Manchin looked at it and was unsure,” adding, “If Manchin would have approved the [GOP] amendment, the bill probably couldn't have passed the House. And I told him that. And he understood that.” On Sunday Senator Joe Manchin said he never intended to threaten the bill’s passage if he didn’t get his preferred solution on the unemployment benefits, saying “That's not how negotiations should go and that should never be the intent of anybody” (Politico). Bonus Reads: “Narrow Relief Bill Victory Provides Warning Signs for Broader Democratic Agenda,” (WaPo); “‘We Need the Government’: Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Relief Plan Reflects Seismic Shifts in U.S. Politics,” (WaPo).

Senator Manchin Suggests Making Filibustering More Difficult

Coming off his moment as a critical vote for the Covid stimulus bill and at the center of a dispute over the level of unemployment benefits, Senator Joe Manchin said he would be in favor of making filibustering more difficult (Politico). Manchin told “Fox News Sunday” that “the filibuster should be painful, it really should be painful and we've made it more comfortable over the years,” adding, “maybe it has to be more painful.” Manchin in the past has supported requiring senators to actually speak continuously during a filibuster. Politico writes, “Manchin did not rule out using the budget reconciliation process to pass a voting rights bill with a simple majority, keeping the door open to a potential workaround for Democrats to push through a voting overhaul while preserving the filibuster.” He did tell NBC’s “Meet the Press” however, “I'm not willing to go into reconciliation until we at least get bipartisanship or get working together or allow the Senate to do its job.” The prospect of a filibuster became a major issue recently due to the narrow party-line vote on Covid stimulus and the effort to include a minimum wage hike as part of the relief, which could not clear a filibuster and which the Senate parliamentarian said could not be passed under reconciliation so as to avoid the need for 60 votes to break the filibuster.

Cuomo Aides Rewrote Report on Nursing Home Deaths to Hide Their Extent

The New York Times reports based on interviews and documents obtained by the Times that aides to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo rewrote a report on nursing home deaths due to Covid to hide the extent of the death toll (NYT). The Times writes, “The extraordinary intervention, which came just as Mr. Cuomo was starting to write a book on his pandemic achievements, was the earliest act yet known in what critics have called a months-long effort by the governor and his aides to obscure the full scope of nursing home deaths.” The Times notes that when earlier in 2021, the New York Attorney General revealed that Cuomo had withheld data on nursing home deaths, Cuomo contended that he did so as part of an effort to avoid a politically motivated inquiry by the Trump administration into the state’s efforts. However, the Times reports, “But Mr. Cuomo and his aides actually began concealing the numbers months earlier, as his aides were battling their own top health officials, and well before requests for data arrived from federal authorities, according to documents and interviews with six people with direct knowledge of the discussions, who requested anonymity to describe the closed-door debates.” According to the Times, “the New York State Health Department’s data — contained in a chart reviewed by The Times that was included in a draft — put the death toll roughly 50 percent higher than the figure then being cited publicly by the Cuomo administration.” The report comes as Governor Cuomo also wrestles with accusations of inappropriate conduct and sexual harassment from three women, creating a set of scandals that are generating calls from some quarters for him to resign. 

Bonus Read: “The Navy Tried to Cast Capt. Brett Crozier as a Villain. New Emails Reveal How Much Support He Really Had,” (Task & Purpose).

U.S. Economy

U.S. Economy Set to Power Global Recovery

The U.S. economy is set to power a global economic recovery in the wake of the pandemic’s economic impact, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The U.S. could help drive a powerful global economic recovery this year, as it plays a more central role in the comeback than after the financial crisis, reflecting the unusual nature of the Covid-19 shock and the flexibility of the American economy. The world economy is likely to grow by around 6% this year, according to Oxford Economics, the fastest rate in almost half a century, as vaccine campaigns allow pandemic restrictions to be lifted and businesses to snap back.” Notably, the U.S. is expected to make a larger contribution to global growth than China for the first time since 2005, according to Oxford Economics’ data. Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citibank stated, “The U.S. is going to play the role of the global locomotive again in 2021.” According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. economy grew 3.5% in 2020 and is expected to grow 7% this year. The Journal notes, “The U.S.’s economic resilience reflects the nation’s rapid rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, an expected $1.9 trillion spending package, easy money from the Federal Reserve and pent-up savings. American households are sitting on $1.8 trillion in excess savings, according to Oxford Economics.” Bonus Read: “U.S.-Stock Funds Rose 4.9% in February in an Inflation-Wary Market,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Changed New York City: A Story of Six Lives,” (WSJ). 

Children Made to Burn Masks at Idaho Anti-Mask Protest

On Saturday during a protest at Idaho’s capitol building, parents encouraged children to burn masks (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “Cheering parents watched as children tossed surgical masks into a fire outside the Idaho Capitol in Boise on Saturday as more than 100 people gathered to protest mask mandates as an affront to their civil liberties. The rally was one of several held statewide in opposition to the coronavirus-related requirements, which health experts have said remain crucial even as vaccines are distributed and the number of new reported cases has dropped.” Idaho’s Republican Governor Brad Little had not instituted a mask requirement, although parts of the state including Idaho’s capitol of Boise have local restrictions, according to the Post. The Post notes, “For months, Little has been at odds with Lt. Gov Janice McGeachin (R) over pandemic restrictions (in Idaho, the governor and lieutenant governor run on separate tickets). McGeachin vehemently opposes any mask mandates.” McGeachin spoke at the protest. She previously questioned the very existence of the pandemic saying, it “may or may not be occurring” (WaPo). While the protesters had a permit, state police are investigating the protest because of the fire. In a statement the State Police said, “Those involved with the event were informed both before and during the event that open flames are not allowed on State Capitol grounds.” Bonus Read: “A National Emergency: How Covid-19 is Fueling Unrest in the US,” (ACLED).

Analysis & Arguments

Abdullah Shihipar argues that racism should be declared a public health emergency (NYT).

Lindsay Crouse writes on the challenges of running and exercise during the pandemic (NYT).

Hilda Bastian writes on the important differences between the various Covid vaccines (Atlantic).

Mark Dent interviews Alamo Drafthouse founder Tim League on the chain’s future after a pandemic driven bankruptcy (Texas Monthly).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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