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September 30, 2020 - Brief Issue 97

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

New York City Elementary Schools Reopen in Person; NYC’s Positive Test Results Creep Higher Than Three Percent; Mayor de Blasio Says Schools Will Close if the Rate is Above Three Percent for a Seven Day Rolling Average (Health & Science)

Regeneron’s Antibody Cocktail Shows Promising Results, According to Early Trial Results (Health & Science)

Trump Announces Plan to Distribute 150 Million COVID-19 Tests; States are Frustrated by Lack of Planning and Coordination (Health & Science)

U.S. Very Far From Herd Immunity Despite Hopeful Claims (Health & Science)

Russian Parliament Goes Remote After 18 Members Hospitalized with COVID-19 (Around the World)

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Slammed For Misstating New Restrictions (Around the World)

Israelis Demonstrate Against Proposed Lockdown Restrictions on Protests (Around the World)

Pelosi and Mnuchin Resume Negotiations After Democrats Propose New Relief Plan with Lower Costs (U.S. Government & Politics)

Thousands Face Layoffs in the Aviation Industry as Congress Stalls on Economic Relief (U.S. Economy)

Record Number Of Retailers File for Bankruptcy, Closures Expected to Continue into 2021 (U.S. Economy)

Opioid Epidemic Surges Amid Coronavirus Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,191,349 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 206,005 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,813,305 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 103,155,189 tests. Worldwide, there have been 33,676,272 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,008,411 deaths. At least 23,419,066 people have recovered from the virus. 

New York City Elementary Schools Reopen in Person; NYC Positive Test Results Creep Higher Than Three Percent; Mayor de Blasio Says Schools Will Close if the Rate is Above Three Percent for a Seven Day Rolling Average

On Tuesday, New York City welcomed roughly 300,000 elementary school students back to classrooms after several delays (NYT). The classrooms look much different from from last March, when they closed. Classrooms that accommodated 30 can now accommodate nine, with all desks spaced six feet apart. Most students will have lunch in their classrooms. Some students will take classes outside, either in the schoolyards or nearby streets and sidewalks. Despite the new setup, the school reopening, along with restaurants opening up for indoor dining on Wednesday, are two welcome signs of the city reopening after the paralysis of the city’s economy.

However, Major de Blasio announced on Tuesday a daily rate of positive infections of 3.25 percent for New York City, the highest since June. While the rate is low compared to other parts of the country, it was “cause for real concern” (Bloomberg, NYT, WSJ, WSJ). The major said that he will automatically close schools if the positivity rate exceeds three percent over a seven day rolling average. The city will also fine anyone not wearing a mask, de Blasio said. The higher rate results in part from a rise in cases in nine zip codes in Brooklyn and Queens, some of which house Orthodox Jewish communities. Hasidic men have said that many in their community thought that there was a degree of herd immunity in interviews last week (NYT), and there was distrust and disbelief between the Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish communities and some secular leaders. However, the number of people wearing masks in Orthodox and Hasidic neighborhoods has increased since Friday, when community leaders urged them to do so; Governor Andrew Cuomo says that he plans to meet with religious leaders from the Orthodox Jewish community (CNBC). 

Regeneron’s Antibody Cocktail Shows Promising Results, According to Early Trial Results

In a peek at preliminary data from an early stage trial, Regeneron’s two-antibody cocktail lowered viral levels and improved symptoms for coronavirus patients outside of the hospital, the company reported in a press release (Regeneron). “The greatest treatment benefit was in patients who had not mounted their own effective immune response,” said George Yancopoulos, Regeneron’s chief scientific author (Bloomberg). These results cover 275 patients out of 1,000 enrolled in the trial, and further research is necessary to get a fuller picture. However, the company said it plans to “rapidly” discuss these early results with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CNBC).

"What I think is fascinating is that it shows that antibodies really matter and the antibody to the spike protein was really helpful, particularly when people made the antibodies themselves," Jeanne Marrazzo, the director of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, told CNN. "Whether it's antibody therapy or vaccine that target these proteins, it sounds like we are on the right track. I think that's really encouraging." She also found the reduction in the amount of virus in the throat very encouraging, because in theory it could reduce the risk of infecting others. "If it plays out and you could treat people early and actually reduce the viral load in the nasopharynx, and they might be less infectious, that would be hugely helpful," said Marrazzo.

The antibody cocktail is also being tested in hospitalized patients in the U.K.’s Recovery trial, and in a study to see if it can prevent household contacts of infected people from becoming infected themselves (STAT). Eli Lilly is also in late stage trial with its antibody therapy and there are at least 70 others at some stage of investigation.

Trump Announces Plan to Distribute 150 Million COVID-19 Tests; States are Frustrated by Lack of Planning and Coordination

President Donald Trump announced on Monday a plan to distribute 150 million rapid coronavirus tests. About 100 million tests will go to states and territories “to support efforts to reopen their economies and schools immediately and (as) fast as they can,” said Trump, while 50 million tests will to "to protect the most vulnerable communities," such as nursing homes, assisted living facilities, hospice care, historically black colleges, and tribal nation colleges (CNN).

"Governors have the flexibility to use these tests as they deem fit, but we strongly encourage governors to utilize them in settings that are uniquely in need of rapid low-tech point of care tests, like opening and keeping open our K-12 schools, supporting critical infrastructure and first responders, responding to outbreaks specifically in certain demographics or locations, and screening or surveillance in congregate settings," said Admiral Brett Giroir, the Trump administration’s coronavirus testing czar (CNN).

This plan “marks a pivot by the Trump administration and by the President, who has repeatedly and inaccurately claimed that more coronavirus testing in the US would lead to more coronavirus cases,” writes CNN. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now emphasizes that individuals who have been in contact with an infected person should get tested for coronavirus, rolling back their earlier statement in August, which said that people who have been exposed but are asymptomatic don’t need to get tested.

However, the Trump administration's distribution of the new tests had “been plagued by poor communication, false results and a frustrating lack of planning,” according to some state leaders, writes the Washington Post.  The lack of federal planning means that health officials in several states have not been able to give input to where the tests should go and sometimes don’t know where or when the tests will arrive until 24 hours before. They also have no standardized way to include the test results in the state’s daily counts. “This is data we need, and there’s just no way of capturing it,” Pennsylvania Health Secretary Rachel Levine told the Post. “We need a reporting structure and not just hundreds of faxes being randomly sent from nursing homes and other facilities.”

“It’s the utter lack of planning and guidance that’s creating problems,” said one state official, who spoke under anonymity out of fear of retaliation, specifically that federal officials might give the state less aid. “Their approach is to just throw things over the fence to the states and to say, ‘Take this, and deal with the problem,’” (WaPo). The initial sense of relief that many felt on receiving these tests has fallen with frustration over the fact that they must pay for test kits on their own – after running through a modest starter set of supplies – and that the tests are not as accurate as laboratory ones (NYT). Bonus Read: “Testing Won’t Save Us From COVID-19,” (Wired).

U.S. Very Far From Herd Immunity Despite Hopeful Claims

Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that between 85 to 90 percent of Americans are still vulnerable to infection from coronavirus. This strongly counters the belief that the United States has achieved herd immunity or is about to, and that the pandemic is almost over. The belief began circulating months ago on programs like Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham; has been cited by Scott Atlas, President Trump’s new pandemic advisor; and appears to be gaining credence on Wall Street and among business executives, reports the New York Times.

“Immunity in 2020 is no closer to being just around the corner than prosperity was in 1930,” said Thomas Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “The route to immunity without a vaccine would be through graveyards filled with hundreds of thousands of Americans who did not have to die.”

On Friday, the CDC found that less than 10 percent of the blood samples collected at commercial laboratories this summer had antibodies to the coronavirus. In a study in the Lancet, Stanford University examined 28,500 blood samples from dialysis centers in 36 states and found antibodies in a little over 9 percent.

Epidemic modeling teams used their models to estimate what percentage of the country is infected, based on testing and death data: they came up with estimates ranging from nine percent to 16 percent. The epidemiologists were Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; the Prevention Policy Modeling Lab at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy; and the COVID-19 Projections website, consulted by Resolve to Save Lives.

Part of the theory behind herd immunity is the belief that in people who have contracted the common cold, their T-cells, a type of immune cell, can also protect them against the coronavirus. “The assumption that T-cells primed by common colds offer protection against SARS-CoV-2 is completely speculative,” said Shane Crotty of La Jolla Institute of Immunology. “It’s possible they help. It’s possible they don’t do anything. And it’s possible they are harmful,” adding, “Wearing a mask is much more effective than hoping you and the people around you have pre-existing T-cell memory.”

Increasing Number of Children and Adolescents with COVID-19

New evidence suggests that children may be playing an increasing role in community transmission of the coronavirus (ABC, NYT). In April, children accounted for less than three percent of reported coronavirus cases in the U.S., but by August and September that figure had risen to between 12 percent and 15.9 percent, reported an article published in Pediatrics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently published a report showing that between March and September, adolescents age 12 to 17 had almost twice the infectious rate of younger children age five to 11 (CDC). The CDC reviewed over 270,000 confirmed cases at a time when most schools in the U.S. were closed or offered only remote learning. Both reports said that they may be underestimating the true spread of the coronavirus because testing data reported by states is often not uniform or complete.

White House Accused of Pressuring CDC on School Openings

Top White House officials pressured the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to downplay the risks of sending children back to school, reports the New York Times, after it sifted through documents and interviews to reconstruct how the events unfolded. Among many other things, a document written by Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, which warned that school closures would have a long term effect on the mental health of children and also said that children who were asymptomatic were unlikely to spread the virus, became the grounds for the introductory text of the final CDC guidance. 

In preparing the document, the CDC drafted a “decision making tool” that urged parents to “consider the full spectrum of risks involved in both in-person and virtual learning options” (NYT). It said that scientists were “still learning about how it spreads, how it affects children and what role children may play in its spread,” and that limited data suggested that children were less likely to get the virus than adults. It also warned of deaths caused by multisystem inflammatory syndrome, and recommended that parents consider whether their children or other family members might be at higher risk.

Meanwhile, the White House drafted materials emphasizing the “high costs of keeping schools closed,” and saying that school-age children face minimal risks from the coronavirus. The CDC objected to those materials and they were never published. 

After a good deal of back and forth, CDC scientists were able to remove some material that they found objectionable from the document, and the White House’s Office and Management and Budget cleared the CDC’s guidance. After that, the White House “abruptly reversed course,” and told the C.D.C. that it wanted to add language from the mental health agency on the benefits of sending children back to school (NYT). That document, with some CDC edits, was re-titled “The Importance of Reopening America’s Schools This Fall.” Then on July 23, with only hours to go until printing, the White House staff secretary emailed the guidance to a long list of White House officials, asking for “critical edits” by 1pm that day. The officials included Mark Meadows, the chief of staff; Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser; Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, and Stephen Miller, a White House policy advisor. The final published version contained information that CDC officials had objected to earlier, including that the coronavirus was less deadly to children than the flu.

CDC Director Robert Redfield Voices Criticism of Scott Atlas

Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), suggested in a private conversation that Scott Altas is providing President Trump with misleading data about the value of masking, the susceptibility of young people to the coronavirus, and the benefits of herd immunity. Scott Atlas, a neurologist with no background in infectious disease or public health, joined the White House task force in August, and since then Atlas appears to have become the medical expert who spends the most time with the president (CNN, Fox, Guardian)

“Everything he says is false,” Redfield said during a phone call on a commercial airline, where an NBC staffer overhead him (NBC). Atlas responded to Redfield's comments, saying, "Everything I have said is directly from the data and the science. It echoes what is said by many of the top medical scientists in the world, including those at Stanford, Harvard, and Oxford."

Around the World

Europe

Russian Parliament Goes Remote After 18 Members Hospitalized with COVID-19

The lower house of Russia’s parliament will cease in-person assemblies after eight members, known as deputies, were hospitalized last week with COVID-19, bringing the current number of hospitalized parliamentarians to 18. “Last Monday, we had 10 deputies who were in hospital beds with coronavirus, today there are 18 deputies. And in total, we have 60 deputies who have been ill, have had antibodies,” said speaker Vyacheslav Volodin on Tuesday at a meeting of the State Duma, which is the official name of the lower house. All committee meetings and roundtables will be conducted by teleconference, while parliamentarians are requested to limit the number of people they invite into the building (Interfax). The news followed the death of Duma deputy Vakha Agayev, a 67-year-old Communist Party parliamentarian from Chechnya, who became the first member of the lower house to die from the disease. Russia, which has the world’s fourth-largest outbreak, tallied its highest daily rise since mid-June on Tuesday with 8,232 new cases (Moscow Times).

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Slammed For Misstating New Restrictions

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed he misspoke after falsely describing new coronavirus restrictions in northeast England, prompting accusations from the opposition that he did not understand the new rules. Under restrictions unveiled on Monday, nearly two million people will be forbidden from socializing indoors with other households in either public or private settings. But amid reports that people would not be allowed to meet at restaurants or pubs, confusion reigned as to whether the rules applied to outdoor venues such as beer gardens. When asked at a press conference, Johnson himself seemed unsure and instead conflated the new rules with pre-existing restrictions. "In the northeast and other areas where extra tight measures have been brought in, you should follow the guidance of local authorities – but it's six in a home, six in hospitality but, as I understand it, not six outside," he said. Johnson later took to Twitter to clarify that meeting outdoors was inadvisable but not forbidden in northeastern England (BBC). Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner said in response, “For the prime minister to not understand his own rules is grossly incompetent,” adding that, “the government needs to get a grip” (Independent).

Germany To Limit Gatherings To 50 People In Hotspots

New rules in Germany will limit public gatherings in hotspots to 50 people or fewer in a decision agreed to Tuesday between Chancellor Angela Merkel and state premiers. Hotspots, as defined by the new rules, include any area with infection rates higher than 35 per 100,000 people. Where infections exceed 50 per 100,000 people, the maximum size of gatherings will be lowered to 25. The new rules exclude home gatherings, with the new guidelines recommending that they be kept to below 25 or 10 people, depending on the severity of the local outbreak. Germany, along with most of Europe, has seen the pandemic spike in September. As of Tuesday, 2,089 people had tested positive in the previous 24 hours (DPA). Speaking at a Tuesday press conference, Merkel said, ”We want to act regionally, specifically and purposefully, rather than shutting down the whole country again — this must be prevented at all costs” (Deutsche Welle).

Ex-Ukrainian President Tests Positive For Coronavirus

Ukrainian opposition leader and former president Petro Poroshenko stated on Tuesday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus. Poroshenko, who served as president from 2014 to 2019 and was commander-in-chief throughout the bloodiest phases of the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine against Russian-backed separatists, said he has suspended campaigning for upcoming local elections as he self-isolates, adding that he is currently asymptomatic. Poroshenko, whose European Solidarity is the second-largest opposition party in Ukraine’s parliament, became the second major politician to contract the coronavirus after ex-prime minister and former presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko fell ill with the disease in late August. Ukraine, which recorded a relatively small case count before an ongoing spike began in August, recorded 3,627 new daily infections on Tuesday. Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkiv, the second-largest city, are currently the two largest hotspots. Ukraine has recorded a total of 204,932 cases and 4,065 deaths since March (Kyiv Post).

Middle East

Israelis Demonstrate Against Proposed Lockdown Restrictions on Protest

Hundreds in Israel protested outside Israel’s Knesset on Tuesday over a bill that forbids people from demonstrating more than one kilometer away from home. Critics claim that the bill, which has been presented as a public health measure amid a new lockdown that went into effect earlier this month, is an attempt to stifle the regular, large-scale protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid the premier’s ongoing corruption trial. The bill, however, has the support of the Blue and White opposition coalition in a rare show of consensus amid one of the world’s largest coronavirus outbreaks relative to population. “It is important to know that the law regarding demonstrations applies only during the time of complete lockdown, for prescribed short periods, with full parliamentary supervision, in transparent processes to the public eye,” said opposition parliamentarian Michal Cotler-Wunsh (Jerusalem Post). The bill was ratified early on Wednesday morning (Haaretz).

U.S. Government & Politics

Pelosi and Mnuchin Resume Negotiations After Democrats Propose New Relief Plan with Lower Costs

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin restored talks on an economic relief bill after Democrats proposed a new $2.2 trillion package on Monday. The new proposal is a reduction from the $3.4 trillion Heroes Act passed by the House in May, bringing Democrats closer to the $1.5 trillion cap suggested by Mnuchin. Economic relief bills have stalled in Congress since April, largely over disagreements on the total price tag. The new deal offered by Democrats overlaps with Mnuchin’s priorities in extending the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) for small businesses, additional stimulus checks, and funding for schools. However, the House bill also includes $436 billion for state and local governments, which Trump and some Republicans have been vocal in opposing. Some House Democrats up for reelection in November are urging Pelosi to strike a compromise with the White House on a less expensive bill that would provide some economic relief. It is unclear whether Senate Republicans will support the deal, as they struggled to pass a $300 billion stimulus bill and remain highly focused on filling the Supreme Court vacancy. Talks are scheduled to resume on Wednesday morning, with both parties expressing optimism that a deal could be reached this week (WSJ, WaPo). 

U.S. Economy

Thousands Face Layoffs in the Aviation Industry as Congress Stalls on Economic Relief 

Airline workers throughout the country could face layoffs at the end of the month if Congress is unable to extend the Payroll Support Program (PSP). The first stimulus directed specifically at airlines came from the CARES Act, which gave $32 billion to the industry and required companies to delay layoffs until September 30. As the date approaches, it is unclear whether relief negotiations will result in extending the PSP and securing the $28 billion needed to support airlines. While some argue that airlines have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic, others have concerns about private airlines being funded while public transit agencies suffer. Additionally, some say relief for the airline industry is a short-term solution that will lead to layoffs later on. However, JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes is optimistic: "I passionately believe it's a bridge to somewhere," Hayes said. "We don't need a full recovery in [2021] for the industry to stand on its own two feet. We just need to get back to somewhere closer to normal and we can take it from there” (Politico). 

Record Number Of Retailers File for Bankruptcy, Closures Expected to Continue into 2021

Retailers are seeing a record number of store closings and bankruptcies, effects from coronavirus that are likely to continue into next year. Professional services firm BDO USA reports that the first half of the year saw 18 retailers file for bankruptcy, mostly in footwear, apparel, and grocery stores. The period from July to mid-August saw another 11 retailers file for chapter 11 protections, including Brooks Brother and Stein Mart. Social distancing requirements and the ease of online shopping will likely continue these trends, with experts saying that 2020 could rival the 48 retailers that filed for bankruptcy in 2010 after the financial crisis. Brick and mortar store closures have taken a particularly hard hit, with an expected 25,000 closures by the end of the year according to Coresight Research. Many of the stores closing are anchor stores in larger shopping malls, which could have ripple effects on smaller brick-and-mortar businesses throughout the country (WSJ). 

U.S. Society

Opioid Epidemic Surges Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

America's opioid epidemic is surging amid the coronavirus pandemic, as the New York Times reports in a piece on Tuesday profiling one individual who died of an overdose during the pandemic (NYT). The Times writes, “In the six months since Covid-19 brought the nation to a standstill, the opioid epidemic has taken a sharp turn for the worse. More than 40 states have recorded increases in opioid-related deaths since the pandemic began, according to the American Medical Association. In Arkansas, the use of Narcan, an overdose-reversing drug, has tripled. Jacksonville, Florida has seen a 40 percent increase in overdose-related calls. In March alone, York County in Pennsylvania recorded three times more overdose deaths than normal.” The Times profiles Jefrey Cameron, a 29-year-old, who died after the pandemic resulted not just in his return to drug use, but to the dangerous practice of using opioids alone. His mother, Tara Reil, told the Times, “Usually he would use with somebody, especially if it’s a different dealer or different batch,” adding, “I don’t think he had that person to use with, to have that safety net.” In addition to the isolating effect of the response to the virus, the pandemic had resulted in Mr. Cameron losing his job. The Times writes, “When Vermont shut down in March, so did Mr. Cameron’s job, which provided his biggest support network. He was lonely and had money to spare: the $600 per week he received in extra unemployment benefits from the federal government was more than he earned from his job.” The pandemic has also disrupted the distribution of Narcan, a drug that can help save lives during wellness checks in hard hit areas hard hit by the epidemic like Vermont.

Neighborhoods at Risk for COVID-19 See High Eviction Rates

Neighborhoods where people disproportionately have conditions that place them at risk for COVID-19 have also seen high eviction rates over the past half year, according to a CNN analysis (CNN). The analysis examined data from Princeton University’s Eviction Lab. Peter Hepburn, an assistant professor and research fellow at the lab, called the trend, “very troubling,” stating, “Getting evicted is bad for the individual facing these problems … but also bad for the community and for public health generally.” Tenant advocates have pushed for the CDC’s eviction moratorium to be expanded and strengthened. While the current moratorium prevents evictions for failure to pay rent if a renter declares in writing that they lost income or faced medical bills due to coronavirus, as CNN writes, “landlords can still add late fees and interest on unpaid rent to tenants' bills, and they can evict tenants for reasons beyond failing to pay rent, such as a lease ending. The order also only applies to tenants earning less than $99,000 a year -- or people who received a stimulus check or earn less than $198,000 and file joint married tax returns – although that covers most renters in the country.” As a result evictions have continued during the pandemic.

Analysis & Arguments

Daily Brief Senior Editor Peter Bergen reviews the discussion of coronavirus during the first presidential debate as part of CNN’s debate coverage (CNN).

Johnny Harris, Nicholas Kristof, and Adam B. Ellick argue that having written the playbook for responding to pandemics, the United States simply ignored it (NYT).

Sarah Zhang writes on the looming vaccine crisis (Atlantic).

Abby M. McCloskey writes that the pandemic could clear a path for bipartisan family leave legislation (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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