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Inflation Gauge in Focus as Investors Eye Rate-Cut Clues
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Another inflation gauge for July, this time for wholesale prices, is due this morning, along with weekly jobless claims. Factory-gate prices likely picked up last month, economists forecast. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said interest rates should be substantially lower than they are now, and he believes there is a good chance the Fed will start with a large cut next month. But San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is in favor of lowering rates next month, pushed back late Wednesday against the need for a jumbo cut. And President Trump said he was down to three or four candidates to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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Fed's Daly Says Jumbo Rate Cut Next Month Doesn’t Seem Warranted
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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against the need for an interest-rate cut of a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
"Fifty sounds, to me, like we see an urgent—I'm worried it would send off an urgency signal that I don't feel about the strength of the labor market," Daly said in an interview Wednesday. "I just don’t see that. I don't see the need to catch up."
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Bessent Says Interest Rates Should Fall by at Least 1.5 PP Over Time
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Fed’s Goolsbee Flags 'Concerning' Rise in Services Prices in July CPI
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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called a jump in the prices of some services “the most concerning thing” in Tuesday’s consumer-price index report for July.
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Who Will Trump Pick as Fed Chair? Where Does the Process Stand?
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President Trump has repeatedly attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying interest rates have remained too high under his leadership and musing about firing him.
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Bank of Canada Officials Divided on Rate Cut Outlook, Minutes Say
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Senior Bank of Canada officials debated the need for a rate cut ahead of its late July decision, with one camp believing they had provided enough relief to aid the economy through heightened trade uncertainty, according to minutes.
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Norges Bank Holds Key Rate But Hints at Easing Later This Year
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Norway’s central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged Thursday as inflation remains above target, but it continued to hint at further easing later this year to avoid constraining the economy more than necessary.
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Chinese Imports Fell During Trump’s First Term. It’s Happening Again.
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The U.S.’s reliance on Chinese goods has fallen off since Trump first put tariffs on China in 2018. China now accounts for only about 12% of all U.S. imports, down from a peak of 22% in 2018, according to 12-month rolling data from the U.S. Census. The U.S. deficit with China, which Trump has often railed against, has shrunk to about $280 billion, based on 12-month rolling data. The peak was $418 billion in December 2018.
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Los Angeles, Long Beach Ports Set Imports Record
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America’s busiest gateway for imports from China set a new record in July, handling the equivalent of more than 1 million import containers for the first time.
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Blue States Hunt for Ways to Wring More Taxes From the Wealthy
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Startups Look to Spend and Hire in U.S. Due to Trump Tax Change.
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Tech startups are dusting off U.S. hiring plans after Congress revived a popular tax deduction—and the same change could drive domestic hiring more broadly as well, executives and tax professionals say.
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Walmart's Employee Perk Takes a Bite Out of Workers’ Grocery Bills
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Walmart’s said that, effective immediately, it was extending its 10% employee discount to include nearly all grocery purchases at its stores and online—its latest effort to better recruit and retain workers.
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8:30 a.m.: PPI
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
2 p.m.: NABE webinar with Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin
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8:30 a.m.: Import & Export Price Indexes
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
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Resilient Economy Will Keep BOE's Hands Off the Scissors
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Robust growth in the U.K. economy should keep the Bank of England from cutting interest rates any further this year, writes Victoria Clarke, chief U.K. economist at Santander CIB. GDP expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year, figures show Thursday, slowing from the first months of the year but exceeding economists' estimates. That suggests gloom over weakening jobs figures might be overcooked, Clarke says. Also, with inflation expected to increase in the months ahead, the BOE is likely to stick to the safest option and keep its key rate at 4.00%, at least until next year, she says. — Joshua Kirby
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U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week as domestic production and imports increased, while product stocks were mixed, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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The U.K. economy slowed in the three months through June but continued to grow, proving resilient to a rise in U.S. tariffs that hit exports and to higher taxes on businesses that cooled hiring.
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European industry felt the effects of the pullback of tariff frontrunning in June, as industrial production declined more than expected.
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When companies realized they needed to diversify away from China, India was the natural choice. Now, U.S. tariffs threaten that.
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China’s new yuan loans dropped unexpectedly in July, sending yet another sign of weak demand in the economy despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster domestic demand.
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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