Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 38, September/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

Special greetings are extended to readers in Armenia, Belize, Bulgaria, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Malta, which celebrate Independence Day, and in Saudi-Arabia, which celebrates National Day this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

China: Beijing tightens regulations on online platforms 

(tj) Guidelines jointly published by the State Council and China’s Communist Party have sought to promote a ‘civilised’ internet by means of strengthened oversight over news sites and online platforms.

The guidelines purport to implement a national ‘rumour debunking’ mechanism to improve efforts in controlling online narratives, to encourage online platforms to promote behaviour norms that subscribe to core socialist values and disseminate education materials regarding the Communist Party and its achievements. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post 1]

This serves as another example of Beijing’s rejection of western liberalism in favour of the promulgating of Beijing’s political orthodoxy among a series of recent crackdowns on various sectors across China. [The Guardian] [AiR No. 36, September 2021, 1]

China: Real estate developer giant Evergrande’s debt crisis sparks protests

(tj) On Monday, September 13, hundreds of investors and vendors have protested outside China Evergrande Group’s headquarters in Shenzhen demanding owed finance, resulting in security forces detaining multiple individuals.

The following day, Evergrande shares dropped by almost 12%, adding to the more than 80% drop in the last six months, having now plummeted to an 11-year low. [Reuters 1]

Dealing with a liquidity crisis of $300b in total liabilities, equivalent to 2% of China’s GDP, Evergrande, one of China’s biggest real estate developers, is scrambling to amass funds to offset the default of massive debt that could be the most significant test that China’s financial system has faced in many years with the possibility to amount to an extended and sever economic slowdown. [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera 1]

In response, the People’s Bank of China has since added 90 billion yuan into the market to temper the crisis [Al Jazeera 1], Evergrande has commenced repaying investors in its wealth management products with real estate [Reuters 2], and Beijing mandating Hong Kong’s property tycoons to pour resources into backing Beijing's interests in order help solve the potentially destabilising housing shortage. [Reuters 3]

Despite Beijing’s ‘common prosperity’ campaign in restraining excessive wealth, reducing market risks, and improving lower income inequality, the Evergrande crisis has left an indelible stain on Beijing’s progress of achieving this goal, and if not appropriately managed will induce poor investor confidence and a poor reflection on the CCP governance. [See, AiR No. 36, September 2021, 1] [Time]

Declared bankrupt in 2001, Evergrande has left 1.5 million people who have put deposits on Evergrande properties with unfinished homes, and more than 1,300 projects in more than 280 cities across China with uncertain futures. [Time] [BBC] [Reuters 3] [Al Jazeera 2]

China: Beijing increases pressure on Hong Kong pro-democracy movement

(tj) Beijing has recently enacted a multitude of restrictions on the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement that has influenced Hong Kong’s federal and district electoral processes, resulted in the jailing of additional pro-democracy activists, and the penalization and disbandment of pro-democracy civil society organisations.

On Sunday, September 19, Hong Kong’s political elite, made up of 4,800 members, were tasked with selecting a 1,500-seat election committee – nearly half the Hong Kong legislature – under a new “patriots only” system imposed by Beijing.

This election sits in stark contrast to the 233,000 individuals who were tasked with selecting the same committee five years ago, pro-democracy candidates nearly entirely absent in this year’s first election by virtue of Beijing’s revisionist political system implemented in Hong Kong earlier this year.

The outcome of this committee’s composition has significant consequences. In December, the selected committee will determine the appointment of 40 of Hong Kong’s 90 seats in the legislature, leaving 30 to be chosen by special interest groups and only 20 to be directly elected. The is also tasked with selecting Hong Kong’s next China-approved leader in March 2022. [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera] [Reuters]

Beijing’s electoral overhaul has further permeated into district politics, with Beijing recently declaring that seven Hong Kong district councilors were to be unseated due the ‘invalidity’ of their oaths sworn. [RTHK.HK]

Furthermore, the suppression of pro-democracy elected officials has been mirrored in the sentencing of nine Hong Kong pro-democracy activists to between six and ten months in prison for taking part in a banned vigil last year commemorating the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Among the twelve people who pled guilty to participating in the protests, three were given suspended sentences. Among the nine activists jailed were high-profile pro-democracy figures and politicians including Albert Ho, a veteran vigil organiser and former vice chairman of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, Eddie Chu, a former lawmaker, and Figo Chan, a former leader of the Civil Human Rights Front. [BBC] [Reuters 1]

The sentencing comes a week after several leaders of the Hong Kong Alliance were recently arrested under the national security law imposed by Beijing last year, accused of working as ‘foreign agents’, [AiR No. 36, September 2021, 1], and last week’s police raids of the 4th June museum dedicated to the Tiananmen victims. [AiR No. 37, September 2021, 2]

Lastly, Beijing’s increase in pressure on the pro-democracy movement has recently impacted civil society groups in Hong Kong.

This includes recent reports of a medical group aligned with opposition in Hong Kong, the Hospital Authority Employees Alliance (‘the Hospital Alliance’), required to submit information about its past work, including comments the Hospital Alliance made about the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine, facing the possibility of delisting as expressed by Hong Kong’s labour union authority.  [South China Morning Post]

Similarly, Hong Kong’s opposition trade union coalition, the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (‘HKCTU’) announced on Sunday, September 19, it would disband, citing safety concerns from Beijing’s implemented the national security law last year. The HKCTU voiced concern that its members could be targeted for their role in the 2019 Hong Kong protests for running crash courses about establishing unions to protect workers from being punished by employers for expressing their views.

HKCTU co-founded Lee Cheuk-yan is currently in jail over his role in the protests, while its chief executive, Mung Siu Tat, announced on Facebook that he had left Hong Kong.

Similarly, Hong Kong's largest teachers' union, also an HKCTU affiliate, similarly announced its disbandment last month after the city’s Education Bureau severed ties and accused the group of helping to infiltrate schools with politics, leading to almost 60,000 teachers having left Hong Kong this summer fearing reprisal for actually or being perceived to be critical of Beijing.  [Reuters 2] [Reuters 3]

China: Macau legislative election

(tj) Macau recent seventh legislative election has experienced a historically low turnout after more than 20 liberal and pro-democracy candidates were prohibited from running for election by Beijing in July 2021.

Dropping almost 15% since 2017, only 42% of registered voters headed to the polls, which recorded a tripling of blank votes and a near doubling of invalid votes compared to the election held in 2017.

Beijing claims that high temperatures weather and COVID-19 were the cause of the historic low.

As it currently stands, less than half of Macau’s 33-seat chamber has been directly elected by the public. [Hong Kong Free Press]

China: Beijing mandates the increased scrutiny of entertainment’s top earners

(tj) Beijing has announced further regulations on top earners in the entertainment industry, including online influencers. Under a new directive of the State Taxation Administration (STA), a ‘double-random’ system will be implemented which will match subjects with tax inspectors to conduct regular tax investigations, with serious punishment for offenders provided for. [South China Morning Post]

Perhaps representing the codification of the recent court ruling fining actress Zheng Shuang’s 299 million yuan fine for reasons of tax evasion tax fraud last month, this regulation reflects Beijing’s conscious effort in increasing regulation across all strata of Chinese society in implementing Beijing’s ‘common prosperity’ goal to reduce excessive wealth and alleviating economic disparity.

Beijing has previously and recently targeted such actors within the entertainment and technology industries, social media platforms, and fan culture. [See, AiR No. 36, September 2021, 1]

Japan: Noda’s last-minute run for LDP leadership

(lnl) The day before the official campaign for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) started on Friday, 17 September, Japan’s former Women’s Empowerment Minister Seiko Noda announced her last-minute candidacy. She is now one of four candidates, the second woman to be in the race. The other candidates are current Vaccine Minister Taro Kono, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and former Internal Affairs Minister Sanae Takaichi [see AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2].

Noda, former internal affairs minister and minister for gender equality and women’s empowerment, is widely believed to have only slim chances to the election scheduled for September 29, with her late candidature indicating she may face struggles to obtain necessary support from fellow LDP lawmakers. Her vision is a more inclusive Japan in which she wants to “[…] create a conservative politics in which those who could not take center stage before, such as women, children, the elderly and the disabled, can live comfortably in this society”, she said. [Japan Today]

Kono, meanwhile, has secured backing from prominent LDP politician. Shigeru Ishiba, former defense minister, formally announced his support for Kono, thus giving up on entering the race himself and ending speculations of whether he himself would run for the leadership of the LDP. [The Japan Times] [Reuters] [Japan Today]

Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, has announced that he also will support Kono in the upcoming leadership election. The announcement of Koizumi, who himself is widely seen as a future leader and enjoys widespread popularity among the population, is expected sway votes in particular from local rank-and-file members of the LDP. [The Japan News]

A latest poll among LDP lawmakers sees Kishida leading who garners 30%, followed by Kono in the mid-20% range, Takaichi at around 20%, and Noda under 10%. [The Mainichi]

Japan: LDP factions to allow free vote in leadership election

(lnl) Six of the ruling Liberal Democracy Party’s seven major factions have revealed to allow their members to vote for whoever they prefer in the upcoming leadership election September 29.

The faction led by contender Fumio Kishida will be the only group to mandate its 46 members to vote for their leader. Factions have traditionally played a major role in deciding who will become LDP president, a role which often leads directly to becoming prime minister as the party controls the powerful lower house of parliament. [Kyodo News]

South Korea: PPP picks eight candidates in first primary

(aml) South Korea’s main opposition party, the People Power Party (PPP), picked eight out of eleven candidates in its first primary to find a candidate for the presidential election next year. The so called “first cut-off” is largely based on two-day public opinion polls and will be conducted again in October. The final candidate is supposed to be elected on November 5. [The Korea Herald]

Meanwhile, former prime minister and six-term lawmaker Chung Sye-kyun dropped out of the ruling Democratic Party’s primary. [The Korea Times]

South Korea: Overseas voters call for postal voting

(aml) South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party is seeking to revise a bill, allowing Koreans living abroad to vote per mail. Many of the 2.14 million Korean expats who make up 4.5% of all voters called for a postal voting system since they often must travel a long way by train or plane to get to the nearest embassy or consulate to vote, resulting in very low electoral turnout in the past elections.

A vast majority of Koreans living abroad have voted progressively in past elections, the National Election Commission however, remains more conservative and advised that postal voting should only be allowed in exceptional cases, since the postal systems aren’t equally reliable in every country. [The Korea Herald]

South Korea: Moon nominates new audit chief

(aml) President Moon Jae-in has nominated Choe Jae-hae to lead the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI). The post had remained vacant for over two months after Choe Jae-hyeong resigned to join the People Power Party to run for next year’s presidential election. Nominee Choe is the first candidate with a professional career in the agency and is currently a non-standing auditor at LS Cable & System. The date for the National Assembly’s confirmation hearing has not yet been set. According to the government, the decision for a new audit chief had taken so long because the independence and political neutrality is of such high importance. [The Korea Herald] [The Korea Times]

South Korea: Metro-union calls off strikes on last-minute deal

(aml) The Seoul metro unions have called off their planned walkouts planned for last Tuesday as they reached a last-minute agreement with Seoul Metro. Seoul Metro agreed to withdraw its plan to lay off 10 percent of the workforce and together, they established a consultation body between the management and the union to find ways to improve workplace safety. Furthermore, they agreed to ask the Seoul city and the central government to compensate the losses that were caused by their discount and free-ride policy. [AiR, No.37, September/2021, 2] [The Korea Times]

South Korea: Compensation for merchants and small business owners

(aml) From late October on, the South Korean government will pay compensation to merchants and small business owners for their losses incurred by anti-virus restrictions. Seoul plans to spend 1.03 trillion won ($ 873 million) and proposed a budget of 604.4 trillion won for next year to help people whose businesses have suffered from the tough social distancing rules that have been installed in the Seoul area since July. [The Korea Herald 1]

Last week, the umbrella group National Self-Employed Emergency Response Committee had demanded additional financial support from the government like rent stipends, extending loans, delaying interest payments and help to solve rent disputes. They set up a memorial for the at least 22 small business owners that have committed suicide after facing financial problems due to the harsh restrictions on their business to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The Committee stated that this emergency situations force people to make fatal decisions and that the government “cannot be free from responsibility for the deaths”. Over 450,000 business have been closed since the beginning of the pandemic and a survey showed that 40% of small business owners currently consider closing their businesses, over 91% stating to do this if the conditions don’t improve in the course of a year.

Although the South Korean government had paid compensation for the losses, the maximum of 30 million won ($ 25,600) per person is considered way too little, especially compared to the 100-200 million won, that countries like Japan and France have paid.  [The Korea Times][The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: Rights organizations call for revision of media bill

(dql) In a joint letter submitted to South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the National Assembly, Human Rights Watch and three other human rights organizations – Article 19, the Korean Progressive Network Jinbonet, Open Net Association – have called for a revision of a media bill, widely dubbed as ‘fake news bill’, which they see as undermining press freedom.

Allowing for punitive damages up to five times more than usual if a media outlet is found guilty of running false or manipulated news reports, the amendment bill to the country’s Press Arbitration Law has been criticized by the organizations for possibly being used to limit critical reporting, citing vague definitions of the terms “false or manipulated news,” failing to meet international standards for restrictions on freedom of expression. The draft legislation has also been criticized for its broad description of circumstances that can be subject to heavy punishments, such as when a news report causes “emotional distress” or “infringes on personality rights.” [Human Rights Watch] [Yonhap]

Parliamentary work on the bill has been stalled after the ruling Democratic Party (DPK) and the opposition last month failed to reach an agreement on the bill and after the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) had announced to filibuster the bill to prevent it from being passed. [AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]

Taiwan: Cabinet approves draft bill for domestic arms procurement

(zh) Taiwan’s Cabinet has approved a defense draft bill that would permit the procurement of domestically made weapons over a five-year period, warning the island is facing “severe threats”. It is now submitted to the Legislature for review.

If passed, a special budget of up to NT$240 billion (US$8.66 billion) would be allocated annually from 2022 to 2026. The island’s planned military spending for 2022 by the cabinet is NT$471.7 billion.

The bill is the island’s latest effort to increase military spending aimed at boosting its defense to safeguard its sovereignty and security against China’s mounting pressure on Taiwan. Just the day after Taiwan announced its military budget boost, China sent off ten aircraft, including six J-16, two J-11, one anti-submarine, and one reconnaissance aircraft, into the island’s air defense zone. The Chinese fighters were close to the Pratas, whereas the anti-submarine and reconnaissance aircraft flew into the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from Philippines. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters 1][Reuters 2]

In a separate development, Taiwan has completed its annual live-fire Han Kuang military exercise, the island’s major drill involving all military branches, to test its capability against Chinese attacks. Exercises conducted during this drill include combat strength preservation, anti-landing artillery target practice, highway take-off and landing drills, medical emergency response, beach counterattack simulations, and maneuvers protecting the Tamsui River. [Taipei Times][Taiwan News]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia 

Bangladesh: 14th session of Parliament prorogued

(ad) The 14th session of Parliament which began on September 1, was prorogued after seven sittings on September 16. Until then, numerous bills were placed in Parliament, some of which assume added significance. [Dhaka Tribune 1]

On September 13, the Bangladesh Shishu Hospital and Institute Bill, 2021 to improve healthcare services for children was passed in Parliament by voice note. The bill includes provisions regarding regulation and supervision of the activities of Dhaka Shishu Hospital. [The Daily Prothom]

Further, final approval to the draft of Public Debt Bill, 2021 was given. The bill shall replace an existing Public Debt Act, 1944. According to the bill, the government will give a precise guarantee against the debt taken by the government for people, to ensure that deposited money will get back. Additionally, new provision regarding Shariah – deposit system was incorporated in the draft. [Dhaka Tribune 2]

On September 16, the Territorial Waters and Maritime Zones Act, 2021 was tabled in Parliament in order to amend previous law enacted in 1974 which inadequately reflects to evolving situation. Given the strategic position of Bay of Bengal – connecting Bangladesh with South and Southeast Asia – Bangladesh is confronted with piracy, drug trafficking, illegal human trafficking, illegal fishing and cross-border terrorism in this region which has become a critical security issue. The proposed law shall ensure Bangladesh’s sovereignty over its maritime boundary. In this regard, provisions of criminal and civil jurisdiction dealing with cases in which foreign vessels and submarines enter Bangladesh’s territory, is included in the draft.  [Dhaka Tribune 3] [Near East South Asia]

Last month, Bangladesh, alongside Mauritius and Seychelles, was offered to become full members of the Colombo Security Conclave, a multilateral grouping comprising of India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. [AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]

The bill, inter alia, includes a provision for the punishment for offences in Exclusive Economic Zone, Continental Shelf and Contiguous Zone. The bill was sent to the parliamentary standing committee which shall submit its report within 45 days. [Dhaka Tribune 3]

The Bangladesh National Archive Bill, 2021 which shall replace the National Archive Ordinance, 1983 was passed by voice vote in Parliament on September 16. As per the bill, no record stored in the National Archives can be destroyed nor taken away or smuggled. Such action shall be sanctioned under the proposed law. [Dhaka Tribune 4]

Bangladesh: High Court orders shut down of unregistered news portals

(ad) On September 14, Bangladesh’s High Court ruled to shut down all unregistered online news portals within a week and called upon the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission and Bangladesh Press Council to take action in this matter. [The Daily Prothom]

Bangladesh: Police headquarters hold review meeting

(ad) Bangladesh’s police headquarters held a meeting to review crimes in the country. During the meeting Inspector general of police urged the police officials to track people who are spreading anti – government and anti - country propaganda on social media. Further measures which have to be taken within police were also discussed during the review meeting.

Benazir Ahmed, Inspector general of police introduced a new policy under which police officials will be appointed in order to build a corruption – free police force in Bangladesh. Further, Ahmed stressed out that exemplary punitive actions will be taken against any policeman in case of discipline violation. [The Daily Prothom]

Bangladesh: Awami League secretary general ensures Election Commission to be formed as per law

(ad) With regards to demands for an impartial Election Commission (EC) established by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) on September 9 [see Air No. 37, September 2021, 2], Awami League (AL) Secretary General assured that the Election Commission will be formed according to the law.

On September 18, Obaidul Quader, the AL Secretary General, stressed that the next EC will be formed the same way as the outgoing commission – following a discussion with all political parties and ensuring that each one of them is represented in the EC. 

While speaking, Quader alleged that BNP is trying to plot against the government and called upon people to resist BNP. [Dhaka Tribune]

Bangladesh: Demonstrations against investigation of 11 journalists

(ad) Journalists in Bangladesh have pledged to continue their protests against the probing into bank accounts of 11 senior journalists, launched on September 12 by the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence United (BFIU), which focuses on investigation of money laundering and suspicious transactions.

This investigation has been strongly criticized by the management committee of the National Press Club (NPC) that sees this investigation as a way to target and tarnish the image of the country’s journalists. During the press release on September 15, the NPC demanded a withdrawal of the probe.

During a media call on September 18, General Secretary of the Dhaka Reports Unity (DRU) alleged that the investigation poses a threat to media freedom and demanded government’s explanation and solution. [Dhaka Tribune 1] [Dhaka Tribune 2] [Dhaka Tribune 3] [Dhaka Tribune 4]

Bhutan: Government scraps Five-Year Plan tradition, irks opposition party

(lm) Bhutan’s government has decided to discontinue the tradition of drafting five-year national economic development plans, a move that irked the main opposition party, which said the decision would have “huge” implications.

Since 1961, Bhutan’s economy has been guided through a series of five-year development plans, each of which set forward a targeted initiative to address the largest assessed proponent of poverty in the country. Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Bhutan was poised to graduate to a Middle Income Country (MDC) by 2023, when its ambitious 12th Five Year Plan was set to end. [Policy Forum]

Druk Phuensum Tshogpa President and opposition leader Dorji Wangdi criticized the move as an “abrupt” decision to discontinue a “time-tested” development planning tradition. Calling the decision a “blunder”, he further said the move would have huge implications, seriously disrupting the socio-economic development and overall governance of the country. [Kuensel Online]

However, not everyone in the opposition is opposing the move. The leader of the Bhutan Kuen-Nyam Party termed it a right decision, saying that a “paradigm shift” towards a more dynamic and versatile platform was needed. [South Asia Monitor]

India: Ruling BJP appoints new chief minister for Gujarat state

(lm) India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) earlier this month chose a new chief minister in Prime Minister Modi’s home state of Gujarat, more than a year before next year’s legislative assembly elections.

Gujarat is a crucial state for the BJP. Not only did Modi serve as the state’s Chief Minister for more than 12 years before his landslide win in the 2014 general election brought him to national politics. What is more, the BJP has been in power there for more than two decades.

However, the two chief ministers who were sworn in since Modi’s tenure have not completed their five-year term. The outgoing Chief Minister, Vijay Rupani, has now been replaced with Bhupendra Patel, a first-time legislator with no previous experience in the government.

Patel was reportedly the top choice of both Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, whose home state is also Gujarat. Patel was chosen over frontrunners such as Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya and Praful Khoda Patel, the controversial administrator of India’s Lakshadweep union territory [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1].

But experts say this is a calculated move. For Patel is a Patidar – an Indian landlord and agrarian caste that comprises some 20 percent of Gujarat's population. While members of the Patidar community form the BJP’s core vote bank, they have lately been upset with the party over its lack of representation in the government. Thus, there is a good case to believe that the BJP's decision to name a chief minister from the Patel community constitutes an important step to avoid any electoral setback. [The Indian Express]

In addition, experts say that another reason is that no other state leader has been able to match Modi's style of absolute leadership. Other observers, in turn, believe that the prime minister changed chief ministers twice to prevent another leader from becoming prominent in his home state.

Earlier in July, the BJP also appointed new chief ministers in the Himalayan state of Uttrakhand, which will also vote for a new assembly next year, and in the southern state of Karnataka. [BBC]

The newly appointed Gujarat Chief Minister, Bhupendra Patel, on September 20 met with Indian President Ram Nath Kovind, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi. [Hindustan Times]

India: Watchdog finds Google abused dominance of Android system

(lm) US search giant Google has abused the dominance of its Android operating system in India, using its "huge financial muscle" to stifle competition and prevent the development of Android rivals, the country's antitrust regulator has found in a report seen by Reuters. [Reuters]

In 2019, a complaint was made to the Competition Commission of India (CCI), triggering a probe by the authority into Google's practices.

According to the CCI’s report, published in June, Google submitted at least 24 responses during the probe, defending itself and arguing it was not hurting competition. But the regulator found that the US tech giant had made it hard for device vendors to create and sell Android-alternative operating systems, and used its clout to coerce them into preinstalling its apps on their devices.

The regulator deemed Google's actions "amounts to imposition of unfair condition the device manufacturers," violating India's competition statute. Play Store policies were also "one-sided, ambiguous, vague, biased, and arbitrary." In turn, Google reduced "the ability and incentive of device manufacturers to develop and sell devices operating on alternative versions of Android." [TechCrunch]

While the CCI still decided that Google illegally stifled competition in the country, the search group will have another chance to defend itself before the regulator issues its final decision along with penalties, if any. Moreover, Google will be able to appeal any order in India's courts. [The Hill]

The report follows days after South Korea fined Google approximately $177 million for leveraging its market dominance to block customized versions of Android, and encouraging the installation of its apps. The country’s regulators also banned the company from requiring manufacturing partners to sign anti-fragmentation agreements, which prohibit the creation and installation of alternative versions of the Android OS. [Financial Times]

India: Major terror bid foiled; arrested men were 'trained' in Pakistan, police say

(lm) Indian police on September 14 said they had arrested six men it believed to have been plotting terror attacks targeting congregations in three major cities of the country during the upcoming festive season. [Deutsche Welle]

Two men were arrested in the capital New Delhi, three were held in neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, and one was caught in the northern state of Rajasthan. During the multi-state operation, police also recovered a cache of weapons and explosives, including improvised explosive devices (IEDs). [Scroll.in]

Two of the suspects arrested were believed to have gone to Pakistan via Oman where they received training in using explosives and firearms. [India Today]

Authorities also said that the arrested men had formed two teams, one of which was believed to be coordinated by the brother of fugitive underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, Anees. Ibrahim, a designated global terrorist by India and the United States, has previously been thought to be living in Pakistan, a claim that Islamabad has denied.

India: World is in ’turmoil’ Chief of Defence Staff Rawat says

(hg/lm) Speaking at an event organized by the India International Centre, India’s Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat on September 15 outlined what he sees as his country’s present strategic challenges. In his differentiated and open assessment, the senior military official also provided his vision to bring India in line with them. [YouTube]

According to General Rawat, India’s two “hostile” neighbors Pakistan and China, in particular, as well as related internal security threats, were forcing the country to reassess and transform its national security architecture.

Looking at Afghanistan next, the senior military official urged that India should look out for neighboring China – which he in July had identified as India’s “primary threat” [see AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1] – “aggressively” entering the country. But what is more, with explicit reference to Samuel P. Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations thesis, General Rawat warned against the possibility that the “Sinic civilization” could join hands with an Islamic one such as Iran to challenge the West. [The Indian Express]

Given these challenges and the rapidly changing face of warfare, General Rawat urged a transformative “strategic plan” to achieve greater unity of command and a new level of jointness of the security forces including the police forces.

Based on a broader and more integrated concept of national security, he advocated a revamped command structure including a more decisive approach towards the ongoing theaterisation and what might be called a full-spectrum readiness of the Indian society and its forces that would ensure preparedness for the kind of challenges India faces today including in the space and cyber area and in form of proxy wars. [AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]

On September 17 then, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that India “had never subscribed” to any clash of civilisations theory”, further emphasizing that both countries had to deal with each other on merits and establish a relationship based on mutual respect. [see entry in this edition] [ThePrint]

Nepal: Cabinet expansion faces ordinance hurdle

(lm) Two months after coming to power, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba heads 17 out of 21 ministries, as he struggles to expand his Cabinet.

On August 18, Nepal’s President and ceremonial head of state Bidhya Devi Bhandari promulgated an ordinance to ease party split. Prior to the amendment, the Political Parties Act 2017 required a faction within a political party to secure at least 40 percent support in both the party’s parliamentary group and central committee to claim the party name or register a new party with the Election Commission. The ordnance lowered the threshold to 20 percent. [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

Since then, two constituent parties of ruling coalition – the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) (Unified Socialist) and People’s Socialist Party, Nepal – fear that if the ordinance that lowered the threshold for splitting the political parties was not rendered ineffective before the expansion of the Cabinet, they face potential splits. [The Himalayan Times]

As many as six writ petitions have been filed with the Supreme Court since the ordnance’s promulgation. The petitioners argue that the government has acted mala fide in allegedly deliberately proroguing the House of Representatives to issue the ordinance.

The ordinance was first tabled in Parliament’s lower house on September 10. [The Himalayan Times]

Nepal: MCC officials wrap up visit hoping for US program’s ratification

(lm) A delegation from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a bilateral United States foreign aid agency, departed Nepal on September 13 after a four-day visit aimed at bolstering support for the ratification of a $500 million compact. The Kathmandu Post]

Nepal signed the MCC-Nepal Compact in 2017 after spending nearly three years working with MCC and development experts to design and negotiate the grant program. Under the compact, Washington agreed to provide $100 million in grants a year over five years under the MCC to support the implementation of two major infrastructure projects in Nepal, while Kathmandu would chip in $130 million. [Millennium Challenge Corporation]

One of the two priorities pertains to the construction of a 315-kilometer cross-border transmission line between Nepal and neighboring India, which is considered crucial for the distribution of approx. 3,000MW of electricity that will be added to Kathmandu’s national grid within the next three years.

Last week, Kathmandu signed an agreement with New Delhi to jointly invest in the Indian side of the Butwal-Gorakhpur Cross-Border Transmission Line, which Washington made a precondition for the MCC grant. [see entry in this edition]

The MCC Nepal Compact clauses requiring that it be ratified by Nepal’s Parliament, and that the project be completed five years after the work officially commences. Kathmandu had committed to ratifying the MCC in Parliament by September 2019, but back then, the process had been deadlocked by the feud in the then-ruling Communist Party of Nepal [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Moreover, the agreement has been mired in a debilitating national debate, influenced by geopolitical rivalries between India and China on the one hand and between the US and China on the other, with Nepal’s political parties weaponizing the agreement to undermine each other. Critics include Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M)), and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Socialist), who both view the project as part of Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, and as superseding Nepal’s Constitution. [Nepali Times]

To assuage these concerns, the MCC’s vice president sent a letter to Nepal’s finance minister on September 3. But that did not prevent a coalition party to stage a street protest on September 7.

On September 9 then – the same day the US delegation jetted into Kathmandu – leaders of coalition parties got together to discuss a common posture towards the MCC deal. But the Nepali Congress of Prime Minister Deuba, which has been in favor of ratifying the MCC since Deuba signed the agreement in 2017, was not invited to the discussion between its own partners.

The two-member delegation met with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Finance Minister Janardan Sharma and Energy Minister Pampha Bhusal to discuss the economic opportunities provided by the compact and offer any needed clarifications.

The delegation also met with opposition leader KP Sharma Oli, who backed the MCC after he took over from Deuba in 2017, on September 9 to discuss the project. Importantly, without the support of Dahal’s CPN(M) and Nepal’s Unified Socialists, Prime Minister Deuba requires the support of lawmakers of Oli’s opposition Communist Party pf Nepal (CPN (UML) to ratify the agreement in Parliament’s lower house.

Nepal: COVID-19 response fails international law, ICJ report says

(lm) Nepal's public authorities have largely failed to comply with their obligations under international law as well as the country's constitution to guarantee the right to health in its responses to the COVID-19 pandemic from early 2020 through August 2021, the principal judicial organ of the United Nations has said in a briefing paper. [The Himalayan Times] [The Kathmandu Post]

In “Unprepared and Unlawful”, an updated and revised version of a briefing paper published in November of last year, the International Commission of Jurist (ICJ) reveals a continuous pattern of deficiencies in public and private responses originally evidenced in the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. [International Commission of Jurists]

Among the issues that are of special focus in the recent wave is the government's lack of preparedness for the health crisis that followed hard on the pandemic’s resurgence in 2021 – despite clear direction from the country’s Supreme Court – leading to lack of oxygen, hospital beds, ICU capacity and medical equipment [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

The report also addresses the impact of significant delays and an alleged lack of transparency in the government’s COVID-19 vaccine procurement and rollout processes.

Pakistan: Journalist rally against proposed ‘draconian’ media law

(lm) As Pakistan's President Arif Alvi addressed Parliament on September 13, hundreds of journalists, alongside senior opposition leaders and civil society members, rallied outside to reject a proposed law that critics say would further curtail media freedom if passed. [Associated Press] [Deutsche Welle]

Under the proposed legislation, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan aims to place all media – print, television, radio, films, and digital media – under the jurisdiction of a new regulatory body called the Pakistan Media Development Authority (PMDA). [Dawn]

The PMDA will be headed by a serving bureaucrat of the federal government, while its board of eight people will include four government officials and four media stakeholders. The new body will not only issue guidelines on covering national security issues, but will also issue no-objection certificates (NOCs) for film production and screenings. It will additionally monitor broadcast media and register print media entities.

The proposal also envisages setting up special “media tribunals” operating under the authority of the PMDA while its decision could only be challenged in the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The tribunals will have the power to hand down punishments of up to three years in jail and fines of up to nearly $150,000 to content producers who violate its code of conduct or publish content it deems to be “fake news.”

The bill, which was kept secret until it was leaked to the media, also suggests that the authority should determine media workers' wages and resolve wage disputes.

Since it introduced the legislation in May, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan has undertaken no meaningful consultative process on the law, and has not been able to move it through Parliament because of opposition from the owners of news organizations and journalist unions. [The Wire]

Legal experts believe the bill is likely to be passed by Parliament’s lower house, the National Assembly. However, the ruling coalition lacks the required strength in the upper house of Parliament. But the government could call for a joint sitting of Parliament to get the bill passed through a majority of the combined membership of both houses.

Regardless of how the bill is made into law, its constitutionality is likely to be challenged by media and rights groups, as well as opposition political parties. For media advocates have vehemently opposed the government move, labeling it as yet another attempt to gag freedom of the press in Pakistan, where fake news and hate speech labels are also often used vaguely to silence dissent.

Pakistan's censorship crusade has gathered pace since Khan’s government came into power in 2018. In July, the prime minister was labeled a “press freedom predator” on the red list of Reporters Without Borders (RSF), along with several other heads of state who massively cracked down on press freedom. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

Pakistan: Press freedom in further peril following surge in terrorist attacks

(lm) While the has been a significant uptick in attacks on Pakistani security forces by the country’s leading Taliban group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), it appears that public authorities have started censoring media coverage of these incidents.

Attacks in Pakistan have surged since the Afghan Taliban released around 2,300 leaders of the TTP – including former Deputy Chief Faqir Mohammad – just moments after taking over Kabul.

The last attack that the Inter Services Public Relations Pakistan (ISPR), the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces, had acknowledged took place on September 9 in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan, leaving two soldiers dead.              But a suicide attack and another ambush on September 13 – both in the country’s northwestern tribal districts of North and South Waziristan – went unreported. [Gandhara]

Another local journalist, Ihsahullah Tipu Mehsud, who covers the region for the New York Times, confirmed these attacks in a tweet where he reported intense clashes between the Pakistan Army and TTP in Ladha Tehsil of South Waziristan region since Monday. 

Earlier this month, the group, in a statement, warned journalists to avoid using the term “terrorist” for the group, or else they would be treated like “enemies”. Timing and context of the warning assume added significance: In a previous statement, the banned outfit said it carried out 32 attacks in August alone, killing 52 people and injuring 38. [Scroll.in]

Sri Lanka human rights concerns are addressed at UN Human Rights Council’s 48th session

(egm) Following updates from the United Nations Human Rights Council’s (UNHCR) 48th session in Geneva, Sri Lanka continued to face criticism for its lack of progress in the areas of reconciliation, accountability, and human rights [see AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2]. Expanding on this matter, the UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet and the Special Rapporteur further elaborated in their reports on the country’s current situation and progress with respect to previous recommendations made in UN reports and by human rights mechanisms. [DailyMirror]

Bachelet’s oral update mentioned measures taken by Sri Lanka’s government on accountability and institutional reform in accordance with President Rajapaksa’s statement in June, expressing his willingness to cooperate with the UN in these areas. The government of Sri Lanka, meanwhile, presented a written response to the Special Rapporteur's report, in which it rejects all alleged cases of “harassment, threats, surveillance” and invites any groups claiming to have faced such abuses to present their complaints to the competent national authorities in charge of handling their investigation.

The government has thus kept its opposition to Resolution 46/1 adopted by the Human Rights Council in March this year to promote reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka. Said resolution expressed concerns over the deteriorating human rights situation in the country, urged the government to follow the recommended actions to protect civil society actors and called for increased OHCHR monitoring and reporting on Sri Lanka. [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

Bachelet and UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion of truth, justice, reparations and guarantees of non-recurrence; Fabian Salvioli, touched on the  topics of militarization, accountability, victimization of public servants and the review of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA).

On militarization

Both the high commissioner and Special Rapporteur Salvioli touched on the increasing militarization of civilian government functions, highlighting its detrimental influence on Sri Lanka’s human rights progress and over its civic space and national institutions. Referring to the state of economic emergency declared in August [see AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1] , Bachelet stated that “[t]he emergency regulations are very broad and may further expand the role of the military in civilian functions”. [DailyMirror]

Further emphasis was also given to the broadening of judicial harassment, surveillance and violence cases with respect to human rights advocates, ranging not only from journalists and families of disappeared persons, but now also including anyone expressing criticism towards government policies. According to Bachelet, there have been several instances of abuse of power by authorities using force to suppress and arrest peaceful protesters and demonstrators in quarantine centers. Fearing that the ongoing draft on civil society regulations will only diminish people’s fundamental freedoms, the high commissioner has urged that this draft should become public and open to discussion.

Accountability

Bachelet and Salvioli both noted the government’s setback in its intent to ensure accountability for all alleged war crimes and human rights violations, including those pertaining to longstanding emblematic cases.

As stated by the high commissioner, the judicial proceedings in several cases have not been satisfactory; among them was the Attorney General’s rejection of charges against Wasantha Karannagoda, a former Navy commander, over his alleged role in the forced disappearances of 11 Tamil youths between 2008 and 2009, and the president’s pardon of a former lawmaker, who was sentenced to death for the 2011 murder of a rival lawmaker from his own party [see AiR No. 26, June/2021, 5].

According to Bachelet, during the current climate in which victims of the Easter Sunday bombings of 2019 and religious leaders raise their demands for further information, truth and justice, such cases “risks eroding confidence in the rule of law and judicial process.”

Victimization of public servants

According to Salvioli’s report, all accountability efforts have been met with continuous reprisals against members of the Criminal Investigation Department as they were looking into cases of corruption, high-profile killings and disappearances. Furthermore, he noted that the commission tasked by the president to investigate cases of political victimization has instead favored intelligence officers in ongoing judicial proceedings such as the 2008 case of the murder of journalist Lasantha Wickrematunge.

The Special Rapporteur’s report pointed out further obstacles stalling the investigative progress on emblematic cases, which include the Prime Minister’s resolution formulated in April this year allowing the Commission of Inquiry to deliver criminal proceedings against any lawyers, witnesses or anyone involved in the investigation of pending cases at court. Moreover, Salvioli expressed his disappointment over the lack of a Truth Commission and the lack of progress displayed by the Office of Missing Persons (OMP) due to continuous government interference.

Prevention of Terrorism Act

The PTA has been cited for being a problematic act used to arrest and detain people without charge while enabling the ongoing ill-treatment by law enforcement officials and in other cases, the death of suspects in police custody. Highly concerned about the continued use of the Act, High Commissioner Bachelet called for an immediate moratorium and a time frame for its review or withdrawal in accordance with the government’s prior affirmation to reassess the PTA under the establishment of a Cabinet sub-committee.

“However, I am deeply concerned about the continued use of the Act to arrest and detain people.” Adding to her statement, Bachelet also made reference to the current cases of Lawyer Hizbullah and a teacher who continue to face detention for an extensive period of time without charges or credible evidence presented against them [see also AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1]. Bachelet has appealed to the recently appointed Advisory Board [see AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5] to expedite the resolution of these and similar cases.

Further actions

Sri Lanka has been urged by the High Commissioner to release the reports of the national Commission of Inquiry for public assessment of its work so far. Furthermore, the UN is also expected to maintain closer supervision of the country and gather as much information as possible on its human rights issues considering that the first steps of the Resolution 46/1 are currently underway. To undergo this process, Bachelet has requested the support of Member States through their involvement in the budget process and by remaining informed of Sri Lanka’s developments in the areas addressed by the resolution. [Groundviews]

Sri Lanka: State Minister accused of abusing political prisoners resigns

(egm) The State Minister in charge of Sri Lanka’s prisons, Lohan Ratwatte, has resigned from his position after facing a public outcry after he allegedly threatened to kill two ethnic minority prisoners.

Ratwatte is accused of twice entering prison complexes while drunk this month. Moreover, on one of these occasions, on September 6, he allegedly threatened to kill two prisoners held on charges of being members of, or assisting, the defeated guerrilla movement known as the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). Meanwhile, the incident on September 12 coincided with the national day of prisoners established to raise awareness over their welfare. [Al Jazeera] [The New York Times]

Following the incident, the state minister had been subject to criticism from opposition parties such as the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) for what the opposition leader Premadasa regarded as “disgraceful and illegal behavior”.

Further comments on the incident came from Amnesty International, which stated that “there must be a prompt, impartial and effective inquiry and the Minister must be held accountable for his actions.” [Amnesty International] As a follow-up, the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka has begun investigating the incident and will soon call on the parties involved for inquiries. [ColomboPage]

In a statement announcing his resignation, Ratwatte did not appear to accept responsibility and said he was stepping down to avoid inconveniencing for the government. Further, he will continue to serve in the second position he holds, as state minister of gem- and jewelry-related industries. [Ada Derana] [The Hindu]

The accusations of abuse against the senior official came during continuing debate at the 48th UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva, in which Sri Lanka was downplaying concerns about worsening human rights conditions [see entry above]. In this respect, Human Rights Watch has also stated that the incidents reflect the continued human right abuses that take place under the current government’s administration, which are especially visible for people held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). [Human Rights Watch]

Sri Lanka: Cabraal steps up as new governor of central bank

(egm) Former MP Ajith Nivard Cabraal has confirmed his appointment as governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka while announcing his plans to tackle the country’s depletion of foreign exchange reserves. According to his predecessor, Weligamage Don Lakshman who stepped down on September 14, it has become the monetary authority’s responsibility to employ its “resources” to reverse the disruptions and “excessive money supply” generated by the pandemic. It is now Cabraal’s intent to address these issues without recurring to an international bailout. [Al Jazeera]

During his time as junior minister supervising capital markets between 2008 and 2015, Cabraal managed to maintain low inflation and interest rates during the period of economic growth that Sri Lanka experienced due to increased tourism. The situation now is much different as the country is faced with a trade deficit brought about by the bank’s decision in August to raise its policy rate. While Sri Lanka’s forex reserves continued dropping, especially after using a part of the amount to repay its $1 billion debt in July, the bank feared a possible accumulation of steep inflationary pressures.

Currently the central bank’s measures have consisted of limiting the amount of foreign currency leaving the country and, at the same time, discouraging the population from buying foreign products by placing strict import rules. These measures form an attempt to preserve the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which have been gravely compromised due to the diminishing tourism since the start of the pandemic and the lockdown that followed [see AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1].

These are the challenges Cabraal will be facing as new governor of the central bank as, according to investors, Sri Lanka is now on the brink of seeking bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - a move Cabraal has deemed unnecessary and undesirable.

Sri Lanka: Court judgement disqualifies local official accused of bribing elections

(egm) A High Court on September 13 disqualified a local government official for bribing voters in the run up to the last local government election.

Two local monitoring groups had filed the case together with the losing candidate. As per the ruling, the candidate who had purportedly won the seat by bribing the voters was removed by order of the Court, and the candidate who had secured the next highest number of votes was ordered to be appointed to fill the vacant position. [DailyMirror]

According to one of the local watchdogs, the ruling presents a barrier against future cases of bribery in elections and also comes as a reminder of the need for laws that limit candidates’ expenses during elections.

Furthermore, it also highlights the relevance of the Right to Information Act of 2016 for the gathering of information required to solve this case. The Act itself aims for more transparency in the government,  to increase civil society’s participation in governance, and provide accountability to Sri Lanka’s citizens [see Department of Labour].

New MP to replace Cabraal in Parliament

(egm) State Minister Ajith Nivard Cabraal has resigned from his post as Member of Parliament for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) according to his official statement presented on September 13. The SLPP has now appointed Jayantha Ketagoda to fill the vacancy left from Cabraal’s resignation. [DailyMirror]

The announcement comes in accordance with Cabraal’s request to be appointed as governor of the central bank following the retirement of its former chief W D Lakshman on September 14. His request was objected  by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa who claims that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) should remain separate from any political influence while conducting decisions on fiscal reserves. [Ada Derana]

Ketagoda is known to be a strong supporter of President Rajapaksa’s brother and Minister of Finance, Basil Rajapaksa. In July this year he resigned from his post as MP to allow Basil Rajapaksa to be appointed as finance minister while expressing his wish to continue supporting MP Rajapaksa throughout his political career. [Economy Next]

Sri Lanka: Minister of Education announces the formulation of a new education policy

(egm) Sri Lanka’s Minister of Education has expressed the need to formulate a new system to resolve the current issues that the educational sector is facing. The educational policy, which is currently being formulated, will address the vacancies of principals at schools, the anomaly in teachers’ salaries, and the decline in the use of the country’s official languages in education. [DailyMirror]

According to the State Minister, upcoming changes will include the transformation of the teacher training National Colleges of Education into universities and the possible introduction of law as a subject in schools. As indicated in the technical committee’s report on this matter, the addition of law as a component in the subject of Civic education is of high importance to inform children about their rights and demonstrate the connection between law and society.

Sri Lanka: Tax Amnesty Bill officially comes into effect

(egm) Sri Lanka’s Parliament on September 7 passed a bill that provides tax amnesty to individuals who voluntarily disclose previously undisclosed taxable income or assets, in exchange for granting immunity from criminal prosecution. The Finance Bill allows tax evaders to regularize their status by paying a penalty of one percent on their newly disclosed income and assets. [Ada Derana] [Department of Government Printing]

The bill had been tabled for debate in Parliament after Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court had previously ruled the bill as unconstitutional, rejecting 13 articles before demanding it to be reformed. An amended version was passed with a majority vote during the second reading as called for by the Chief Opposition.

In recent statements by the Transparency International Sri Lanka (TISL), it was noted that the tax amnesty arrangement of the Act could be potentially used for money laundering. The organization thus cautioned regulatory authorities to take appropriate measures and precautions against the abuse of the tax amnesty bill.

Others criticized the bill as a quick fix introduced by the government to drive up tax revenue and increase investment, purely meant to counteract the plummeting government revenue that has accompanied president Rajapaksa’s administration amidst the financial strains caused by the pandemic. Therefore, the new measures introduced by the bill would enable tax evaders to pay a significantly lower tax liability of 1% while facing immunity from any investigations or punishment. [DailyFT]

Moreover, the bill’s main proponent, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa was described as "Mr Ten Percent" in a 2007 United States cable published by the WikiLeaks organization because of commissions he allegedly took from government contracts. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: PM to admit video call intrusion

(nd) After initially denying it, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen boasted of uninvitedly crashing into a video conference call hosted last week by former members of the Cambodia National Rescue Party, which was dissolved by the Supreme Court in 2017. In a clip circulated on social media, Hun Sen talks with Long Ry, a former opposition lawmaker, for 12 minutes. Hun Sen’ spokesman initially denied that the intrusion, calling the video fake, with the Prime Minister later acknowledging the intrusion took place and adding he listened in on about 20 previous calls of his opponents without revealing his presence. This was made possible because one of the invitees shared the meeting link or password with others.

Most senior members of the Cambodia National Rescue Party fled into exile after the party was dissolved, which enabled Hun Sen to acquire all seats in the 2018 general election and preluded a wider crackdown on civil society. [ABC News]

Indonesia: Shipbuilder PAL to receive license for frigate construction

(nd) State-owned shipbuilder PAL Indonesia will manufacture two frigates for the Navy under license from UK-based defense company Babcock. Following Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s trip to London, he and his counterpart Ben Wallace signed a license deal for PAL to manufacture Arrowhead 140 (AH140) frigates. The value of the joint production remains undisclosed. [Jakarta Globe]

Indonesia: Environment ministry to appeal ruling on chronic air pollution

(nd) The environment ministry announced it would appeal a recent verdict that found President Joko Widodo, several ministries and top local officials guilty of environmental negligence over chronic air pollution. On September 16, a Jakarta court ruled in favor of a citizen civil lawsuit, agreeing with their argument that authorities had failed to protect citizens since according to scientific research, air pollution could cause asthma and heart disease and lower life expectancy. The court ruled that officials failed to prevent, monitor and control unhealthy pollution levels in and around the capital. It confirmed violations of people’s rights to healthy living guaranteed by Indonesia’s constitution, as well as of laws on human rights and environmental protection.

The court ordered the officials to ’tighten the national air quality standard to protect the health of humans, the environment and the ecosystem -- including the health of the sensitive population.” In their appeal, however, the environmental ministry argues it had undertaken actions to monitor air quality and emissions in Jakarta and surrounding cities since 2011.

According to a 2020 report by air quality monitor IQAir, Jakarta is Southeast Asia’s most polluted city, which was not only driven by rapid urbanization, chronic congestion in in the city, and nearby coal-fired power plants, but mostly through the burning of fossil fuels and agricultural fires. The current PM 2.5 levels are constantly higher than World Health Organization standards, which according to reports will reduce the average life expectancy of Indonesians by 2.5 years compared to air pollution levels meeting WHO standards.  According to a Greenpeace report in 2020, seven out of ten ASEAN member states are affected by haze generated by fires in Indonesia, which have caused “wide-ranging health problems including lung conditions and cardiovascular diseases.” [Nikkei Asia] [Channel News Asia]

Indonesia: NGOs urge extension of palm oil moratorium

(nd) Environmental NGOs urged the government to extent a moratorium on new palm oil permits. The groups argue that the time was not enough for the area to recover, further arguing that the government was untransparent in the implementation of the moratorium, and failed to review existing areas, whether they are sufficient or used for a different purpose. According to government data of July 2019, 1.49 million hectares of designated land remained unused and over 1.5 million hectares not used in accordance with their permits.

The moratorium was launched in September 2018 in an effort to stop deforestation due to palm oil production, while parallelly working to boost output from existing areas. Indonesia has over 16 million hectare of plantation area for the vegetable oil, mostly on Borneo and Sumatra islands, also the Papua region. [Reuters]

Indonesia: MIT leader killed

(nd) On September 18, security forces have killed the leader of militant group East Indonesia Mujahideen (MIT) which has ties with Islamic State. In a shootout at a village on Sulawesi Island leader Ali Kalora and another militant were killed. Kalora took over as MIT leader after security forces killed its previous head, Santoso, in 2016. According to analysts, the leader’s killing is likely to bring about the demise of the group for it was already weakened and there is no potential successor in sight. [Benar News]

In a raid in August, police arrested 53 militants suspected of planning an attack on Indonesia’s Independence Day. The biggest attack were the Bali bombings in 2002, killing 202 people. [Reuters]

Indonesia: UN warms of medical condition of Papuan independence activist

(nd) A UN expert has asked Indonesia to provide proper medical care to an independence activist in a Papua province to ‘keep him from dying in prison.” Victor Yeimo, the international spokesman of the West Papua National Committee, was arrested in May. He was charged with treason and inciting violence and social unrest for his role in pro-independence protests in 2019. He suffers from chronic tuberculosis and reports indicated his condition deteriorated. Despite requests from Yeimo’s lawyer for a delay on medical grounds, the trial went ahead in August. Indonesia took over the former Dutch colony after a referendum in 1969, overseen by the UN, which Papuan separatists claim illegitimate. [Reuters]

Laos: Government to start trial on cryptocurrency

(nd) The government has officially endorsed six companies to trial mining and trading cryptocurrencies. The trial phase will proceed while different ministries will coordinate with the Bank of Laos and the state power supply company Electricite du Laos on regulations on its use.

Considering a warning to citizens issued last month by Lao authorities to not engage in cryptocurrencies due to security risks, the announcement to start mining comes as a surprise. Even if respective regulations are passed, Laos lacks the capability to enforce them, as seen with foreign businesspeople, a number from mainland China, engaging in illegal activity including gambling, narcotics and wildlife trafficking.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins are highly volatile in value for their price is based on speculation on their future value. Their anonymity has, however, also connected them to criminal activity. Recently, the Chinese government therefore banned mining operations and forbade banks to do business with cryptocurrencies, arguing they would threat the country’s financial stability. Also due to that, its implementation in Laos would attract those operations banned by China. [The Diplomat]

Laos: Food shortages to be imminent

(nd) Villages in southern Lao provinces have reported to be short on food and other essentials due to a strict lockdown. Dry and canned goods are reported to be nearly gone, while fresh produce cannot be obtained due to closed food markets and street vendors prohibited from selling food. The initial lockdown was prolonged due to rising case numbers, with the government strictly patrolling compliance with the rules and second offenders being jailed.

In April this year, after having no cases for over a year, they rose to 18,059 confirmed cases, including 154 new ones, with fatalities at 16. [Radio Free Asia]

Malaysia: Najib open for parliament seat, despite conviction

(nd) Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, convicted of corruption, has not ruled out to seek re-election to parliament. Najib served nine years until he was sentenced to 12 years in jail in 2018. He appealed the verdict, the conviction, however prevents him from running for office unless he gets a pardon or a reprieve from the country’s monarch. He denied the charges and insisted the trial was politically motivated. While arguing such prohibition was “subject to interpretation”, he did not specify how he might circumvent the constitutional barrier. According to the constitution, any person sentenced to imprisonment for more than one year or fined more than 2,000 ringgit ($480) is disqualified from contesting in a parliamentary election.

Najib remained a popular figure and unveiled that he talked to Prime Minister Ismail Sabri about a possible role for him, possibly as an economic advisor. His graft-rocked United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) came back to power last month when Muhyiddin Yassin resigned due to the loss of his razor-thin majority. UMNO had been in power since Malaysian independence in 1957 until their defeat in the 2018 election. [Reuters]

Myanmar verges on failed state

(ds) A recent report of US think-tank the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has labeled Myanmar on the brink of becoming a failed state due to its weakening economy and the unchecked spread of Covid. 

The country’s military regime is reporting an average of six thousand cases daily, although that number is likely an underestimate since testing has been stop-start for months. With only 8% of its population having received a vaccination, the country also lacks access to vaccines, ventilators, and medications. A medical personnel shortage is further exacerbated by the junta’s arrests of members of the healthcare sector who pledged allegiance to the National Unity Government (NUG), comprised of ousted National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmakers. Medical NGO Doctors Without Borders is quoted by CFR as stating that “uncontrolled community spread” of Covid in Myanmar threatens the collapse of its healthcare system and carries the potential for a new variant to develop. 

Concurrent to the ongoing outbreak, Myanmar’s economy is projected to shrink by 18% this year and has shed at least 1.2 million jobs since the military takeover in February 2021. Growing demand and little supply of the US dollar have caused the Kyat to sink to an all-time low of 2,200 to the dollar. [The Diplomat]

Very limited support has come from regional powers such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China or India. This mix of factors could lead to a deadly spillover of the virus into the Southeast Asian neighborhood, says a UN special rapporteur quoted by the CFR. The UN expert urged all actors to broker a “Covid-19 ceasefire”, temporarily stop fighting between the military and resistance fighters in order to focus on vaccine distribution and rebuilding the economy. [Council on Foreign Relations] 

Myanmar: Deadly clashes to continue between junta and resistance forces

(ds) Over the weekend, clashes between the military forces and both ethnic armed groups and People’s Defense Forces (PDF) continued. On September 14, ethnic group the Chinland Defense Force-Kanpetlet (CDF-K) claimed to have killed 10 junta soldiers in the Chin state, prompting junta troops to harness artillery and fire indiscriminately in retaliation. 

The following morning, armed group the Yaw-People’s Defense Force (Y-PDF) announced killing four junta troops in a September 15 ambush in the Magwe Region. That evening, the Y-PDF further reported that their landmines had destroyed at least three regime troops. 

Further, the busy highway connecting the towns of Gangaw and Kale has witnessed increased violence in recent weeks as the military cracks down on opposition groups. Over 20 civilians, including minors, have reportedly been murdered, and many more are displaced as villagers flee the fighting. 

Meanwhile, junta troops are attempting to rebuild a military base after it was burnt by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the northern town of Tanai, Kachin State. Local elders and faith leaders were called in to broker an agreement preventing the KIA from threatening the junta’s presence in the village. 

In Chin state, a pastor was shot dead while trying to put out fire caused by military artillery, and his finger cut off to take his ring. This prompted UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, to call the murder “the latest examples of the living hell being delivered daily by junta forces against the people of Myanmar. The world needs to pay closer attention. More importantly, the world needs to act.” [UCA News]

Native to the Chin state, the Chin ethnic group have been called “persecuted” and Myanmar’s “forgotten people” by human rights observers. [The Irrawaddy] [BBC] Two Chin resistance groups, Chinland Defense Force-Thantlang (CDF-T) and the Chin National Army (CNA), have joined forces in combatting the junta’s control over the region. According to CDF-T sources, at least 30 junta troops also died in the skirmish. Civilian groups took up arms in April in response to the regime’s failure to release political prisoners in the mountaintop town of Mindat.

In line with the National Unity Government’s (NUG) declaration of a “defense war”, PDFs attacked Myanmar Beer, one of the many economic assets and cooperation of the military. When asked about whether she would oppose this war, deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi in a court hearing said she would “never oppose the will of the people”. The Nobel prize laureate now faces up to 11 different charges filed by the military against her, with a maximum sentence of more than 100 years in prison. [Radio Free Asia]

Since gaining control of Myanmar on February 1, reports suggest that junta forces are responsible for at least 1,093 deaths of Burmese civilians and resistance fighters. [The Irrawaddy 1] [The Irrawaddy 2] [The Irrawaddy 3]

Burmese political art featured in Paris, hopes of “wake-up call”

(ds) Fighting Fear: #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar, is a month-long exhibition featuring the works of 14 Burmese artists due to be held in the French capital’s Place du Palais-Royal. The NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) has sponsored the show with the intent to “break the global apathy” stemming from a perceived lack of international support for the Burmese people. [Human Rights Watch]

The art show is part of an HRW advocacy campaign, which accuses the UN Security Council of stalling in adopting resolutions against the violence in Myanmar and, a similar lack of pressure on the military junta from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). While sanctions were placed on the Burmese military regime’s main income streams of gas and oil, HRW is further demanding that the international community urgently enact an arms embargo.

Since the February 1 coup, over 6,500 people have been arrested and 1,108 killed in the fighting between Burmese armed resistance groups and regime forces. These numbers include many of the country’s politically-active artists who have been targets of the junta’s anti-dissident crackdown. Myanmar’s arts industry has seen figures such as actor and producer Lu Min, director Christina Kyi and actor and model Paing Takhon all arrested for speaking out against the military. The poet K Za Win was shot and killed by troops in March as he took part in an unarmed protest. [France 24]

Philippines: ICC to approve investigation in “war on drugs”

(nd) On September 15, the International Criminal Court (ICC) approved a formal investigation into possible crimes against humanity allegedly committed under President Rodrigo Duterte. The request by ICC prosecutors to investigate Duterte’s “war on drugs”, has been prepared since the first such statement in February 2018. The judges argued the action amid the “war on drugs” campaign “cannot be seen as a legitimate law enforcement operation,” but a systematic attack on civilians.

The campaign started in June 2016 and has officially claimed more than 6,600 people’s lives, with unofficial numbers possibly much higher. The victims include children, activists and journalists. While rights groups reported of extrajudicial killings, Duterte referred to it a self-defense. In a speech before the ICC, Duterte said about his fight against drugs: “I have never denied (it), and the ICC can record it: Those who destroy my country -- I will kill you.”

The Philippines withdrew from the ICC membership in March 2019, limiting the investigation until this point in time. The government has already announced to not cooperate with the ICC and denied investigators entry into the country. Earlier, the government argued that the ICC does not have jurisdiction in the Philippines and it would contravene the country’s sovereignty.

The ICC was installed to prosecute war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. It has jurisdiction if a member state is unable or unwilling to prosecute the deeds itself. [CNN] [Reuters]

Philippines: Sara Duterte to remain in local politics, Pacquiao to announce bid

(nd) According to her spokesperson, Sara Duterte has decided to seek reelection as Davao City mayor in the 2022 elections. If reelected, it will be her fourth and final term, according to the 1987 Constitution. Sara was leading the polls for the upcoming presidential elections next year. Following her father President Rodrigo Duterte’s announcement to run for vice-president, she said not to run for president. Sara announced to support her father’s bid and he in turn asked her to support his aid Senator Bong Go’s presidential bid. [Rappler]

Over the weekend, senator and boxer Manny Pacquiao announce to run for president in next year’s elections. One faction of the ruling PDP-Laban supports Manny and nominated him. It remains open, which faction’s candidate will be recognized by the electoral commission. Current polls are still topped by Sara Duterte. [BBC]

Singapore: “The Online Citizen” suspended by the IMDA

(py) On September 16, the “Online Citizen” news platform was finally taken down after a lengthy investigation into its funding sources. Earlier that week, the platform offered to give the necessary declarations if IMDA (Infocomm Media Development Authority) would also agree to not investigate further into its subscription model and funding revenue. The offer was rejected, and the platform was issued a suspension, putting an end to one of Singapore’s few alternative voices on domestic politics. IMDA justified its action by citing that Online Citizen and other internet content providers in Singapore are required to be transparent about their funding to prevent foreign interference. The platform has failed to declare its funding sources in 2019 and 2020 despite having received several warnings from the IMDA. Moreover, its subscription structure, in which subscribers can have specific articles written by donating to the platform, is legally concerning for the authorities. This particular feature was deemed to be a possible revenue channel for foreign fundings. Initially, the site has been regulated under Singapore’s Political Donation Act which will be replaced with the new Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) law, allowing the Ministry of Home Affairs to order internet service providers to take down content and disclose information. [AIR No. 37, September/2021, 2] [IMDA] [South China Morning Post]

Thailand: Anti-torture, enforced disappearance bill passed first reading

(kk) The House of Representatives approved four long-awaited draft bills against torture and enforced disappearance in the first reading amid pressures from international embassies and the public. The vote was 368 overwhelmingly in favor of the bills with one abstention.

The bills, including the government-sponsored “Prevention and Suppression of Torture and Enforced Disappearance Bill”, which was approved by the cabinet in June last year, criminalize torture and enforced disappearance committed by state officials and offers compensation for injuries. [See AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4] The cabinet initially approved the draft bill in 2016 but its progress stalled in the legislature. [Reuters]

Nine Thai political dissidents who fled to neighboring countries after the military coup in 2014 disappeared, two of whom were found dead. Last year, Wanchalerm Satsaksit – a prominent Thai activist – was abducted in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh and not seen again. Human rights groups believe his kidnapping was part of a pattern of politically motivated disappearances. [UCANews] [AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2]

The approval of the bills followed the alleged torture and murder of a drug suspect by seven police officers, including Thitisan “Chief Joe” Uttanapol, that was caught on a CCTV and became a subject of debate last month, expediting the parliamentary process of the anti-torture legislation. [See AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]

Kamolsak Leewamoh - Prachachat Party MP - told the House the bill would raise the bar for the country in terms of preventing human rights violations, especially in the deep South where rumors about torture are rampant. Phetdao Tohmeena, a party-list MP for the Bhumjaithai Party, said the bills were "justice which have sought for three generations". Her grandfather Haji Sulong Tohmeena – a southern political icon, campaigning for the rights of Muslim Malays – disappeared in 1955 and was declared by the Pattani provincial court as a missing person. [Bangkok Post]

Prior to the bills’ passage, several European embassies in Thailand, including the British and Swedish Embassy, posted messages to support the anti-torture and forced disappearance draft bill on their official social media accounts. [BBC Thailand]

Thailand: Court granted bail to five protest leaders

(kk) A court in Thailand granted bail to five anti-government protest leaders after denying bail several times. On September 15, Panupong “Mike” Jadnok, Phromsorn “Fah” Weerathamjaree, Chartchai Kaedum and Nutchanon Pairoj were released under the condition that they have to wear electronic monitoring ankle bracelets. However, Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, despite being granted bail along with four leaders, was remanded in custody over charges related to protests last year. [Reuters]

Meanwhile, two activists including Anon Nampa and Jatupat Boonpattararaksa are still in detention. Anon was arrested and charged with lese-majeste with respect to his speech at the August 3 protest. [Prachatai English] [See AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Thailand: Prawit, Thammanat retain high posts in the ruling party

(kk) Thammanat Prompao – former Deputy Agriculture Minister – remained the secretary-general of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP). Prawit Wongsuwon – Deputy Prime Minister - also remained as the party leader.

On September 15, Prawit told a PPRP meeting at parliament that the party would not be reorganized for the time being. He called on the ruling party MPs to end factionalism and conflicts inside the party as he seeks to secure at least 150 House seats at the next election. Prawit insisted that Thammanat remained the secretary-general of the ruling party and to continue helping the party. Thammanat and Narumon Pinyosinwat, who were dismissed by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha from the cabinet last week, were also present at the meeting, showing close ties with Prawit. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2]

Thammanat was removed from the cabinet after a rumor sparked that he tried to persuade a group of MPs to vote against Prayuth in the latest no-confidence motion, resulting in speculations over internal rifts inside the ruling party. [AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2]

Thailand: NACC ordered to reveal details of Deputy Prime Minister’s luxury watch controversy

(kk) The Central Administrative Court ordered the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to disclose the findings of an investigation into the luxury watch controversy in 2018 involving Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan.

The court told the NACC to reveal the findings on this case, including witness testimonies and Prawit’s own testimonies, to demonstrate transparency and accountability of the agency. The court also said that the NACC has thirty days to appeal against the order to the Supreme Administrative Court.

The case was brought to attention of the court by Veera Somkwamkid, a political activist and secretary-general of the Anti-Corruption People’s Network.

The NACC deputy secretary responded that the agency was waiting for details of the court order before deciding whether the agency could disclose the information and to what extent, however, the NACC could not disclose the details of witness accounts as it might prompt lawsuits. [Bangkok Post]

In December 2018, the NACC ruled there were no grounds to accusations that Prawit made a false wealth declaration by failing to include twenty-two luxury watches and rings he had been seen wearing. According to the NACC, Prawit claimed he had borrowed the watches from a late close friend, and had already returned them. [Thai PBS World]

Thailand: Young protesters and activists arrested as police escalates crackdown

(kk) A number of protestors were arrested including children and teens, raising concerns over alleged child abuse amid near-daily violent street battles between small groups of anti-government protestors and Thai police.

On September 13, a 12-year-old boy, who was riding a bicycle to watch the protest, was arrested along with at least 11 people including two freelance journalists and a volunteer medic, all charged for violating a curfew. Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR) said the 12-year-old boy was the youngest person to have been charged with a crime during youth-led street protests. 

On September 14, Thalu Gaz – a group involved in daily street battles against riot police – said on its Facebook page that a 15-year-old minor who was shot in the neck and critically injured on August 16 is still in the intensive care unit and would be paralyzed for life. [BenarNews] [See AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

On September 17, a group of police arrested two students from Khon Kaen University on charges of arson with respect to the burning of King Vajiralongkorn’s portrait in front of Srinagarind Hospital on September 13, after raiding their houses. TLHR said that the police took them into separate rooms for questioning and provided one student with a lawyer who has a police rank and did not inform the suspect of his rights. The students were taken to court for a temporary detention, eventually, they were granted bail without security, under the condition that they would be fined if violating the bail. [Prachatai English 1]

Meanwhile, another group of police raided the house of members of United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration (UFTD), a student activist group, confiscating mobile phones and computers and arresting one person on charges under the sedition law, and the Computer Crimes Act, as she was allegedly involved in running the UFTD’s Facebook page, which contained what the authorities considered to be seditious messages calling on people to rebel against the authorities. She denied all charges and was later released on bail. [Prachatai English 2]

Thai youth, including minors, have been detained and charged with various crimes from sedition to royal defamation since the student-led protests started in July last year. The lese majeste law carries a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison. In December last year, the UN human rights body had expressed its increased worry over detentions of democracy activists, including a minor aged 16 years charged with royal defamation. [UCA News] [See AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]

Thailand: Car mob to mark anniversary of the 2006 coup

(kk) On September 19, Nattawut Saikuar, a co-leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), also referred to as red-shirt, led a car mob rally to mark the 15th anniversary of the coup on September 19, 2006. The coup was staged by then Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Sonthi Boonnyaratgalin to topple the government of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Nattawut said that the 2006 coup paved the way for the coup in 2014 by Gen Prayuth Chan-O-Cha to oust Yingluck Shinawatra’s government. Nattawut indicated that the protest would send a strong signal that military coups must end and Prayuth must leave office. [Bangkok Post]

Parallel to the street protest, an online panel discussion was held, featuring many well-known speakers such as prominent social critic Sulak Sivaraksa and Ratsadon group core leader Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul. [Thai PBS World]

Thailand: Thailand extends State of Emergency in the Deep South for 65th time

(kk) The cabinet decided to extend the state of emergency in three border provinces in the Deep South – Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani – for another three months from September 20 to December 19. This marks the 65th extension of a decree that gives security forces detention powers.

Seven districts in the Muslim-dominant southern border provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani are covered under the Internal Security Act and are excluded in the emergency decree.

The first emergency decree was imposed in July 2005 to ensure peace in the Deep South, which had suffered from insurgency-related violence. Since then, the decree has been continuously extended.

Deep South Watch – a Pattani-based think-tank – reported that more than 7,000 people have lost their lives in the region in violence related to the separatist insurgency over the last 17 years.

Abdulqahhar Aweaputeh – the chief of the Muslim Attorney Center Foundation based in Yala – said the decree was satisfactory for authorities as they could easily control the situation, while affecting the freedom of the people, adding that suspected insurgents have been detained without charges for several days or weeks, often without a lawyer’s assistance and relative visits.

A human rights expert from the Cross-Cultural Foundation criticized the emergency extension as unnecessary because the pandemic had led to a slowdown in violence in the region. Face-to-face peace talks between Thailand and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) –- the largest armed insurgent groups in the Deep South -– have been interrupted since March 2020 because of the pandemic. However, both sides continued to meet online through technical-level panels, with Malaysia serving as facilitator. The latest virtual meeting was held in February this year. [BenarNews] [See AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China applies for CPTPP membership

(dql) China has summitted a formal application to join the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the 11-nation Asia-Pacific free trade group that accounts for around 13.5 percent of the global economy. All 11 members of the CPTPP – Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam – would need to reach a consensus to allow Beijing to join. [Reuters]

The CPTPP is the successor to a previous trans-Pacific trade pact which was promoted by then US President Obama and from which the US withdrew under Donald Trump in 2017. Joe Biden has not re-joined the group. For a critical perspective on the US lacking an integrated trade strategy for the Asia-Pacific, exposed by China’s CPTPP application see [South China Morning Post].

Australia was quick to voice caution towards China’s accession to the trade pact, with Trade Minister Dan Tehan stating that Australia opposed China joining unless member states would be convinced that China had a “track record of compliance” with international trade agreements, and Beijing resumed high-level dialogue with Canberra which have been stalled over Beijing’s trade restrictions on Australian goods. [The Guardian]

China-US relations: Biden denies being turned down by Xi

(dql) US President Joe Biden denied a media report according to which Chinese President Xi Jinping had turned down an offer from Biden for a face-to-face meeting made in a 90-minute call earlier this month between the two leaders, with Xi additionally insisting on Washington adopting a less strident tone toward Beijing.

The call between Biden and Xi was their first in seven months in which both leaders agreed on efforts to prevent bilateral relations from plunging into conflict. The readout of the phone call released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry presented China in a position of strength with the Chinese President claiming – among others – a US responsibility for the “serious difficulty” in the diplomatic relations. [Reuters] [AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2]

China to cooperate with Russia, Pakistan and Iran on Afghanistan’s rebuilding

(dql) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Russian and Pakistani Sergei Lavrov and Shah Mahmood Qureshi as well as Assistant to Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Rasoul Mousavi on September 16 reached an agreement at an informal meeting on Afghanistan in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe to strengthen cooperation on the Afghan issue.

During the meeting, Wang presented a five-point proposal on the coordination and cooperation among the four countries pertaining to Afghanistan in the next stage, including urging the US “to shoulder the primary responsibility for Afghanistan’s reconstruction, and provide economic, livelihood and humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan.” [Xinhuanet]

China-Japan relations: Japanese Defense Minister’s red lines on disputed islands and Taiwan amid largest military drills since end of Cold War

(lnl/zh) Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (GDSF) has started for the first time in almost three decades nationwide exercises with all its units in an attempt to boost deterrence and strengthen its capabilities amid China’s regional assertiveness.

The drills are aimed to strengthen the ability to defend the remote Nansei Islands and Beijing-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. They will be carried out until the end of November across the country. Exercises on this scale were last conducted in 1993 after the Cold War ended. [The Japan Times] [Japan Today 1]

Last week, a total of 12,000 personnel and 3,900 vehicles from two GSDF divisions based on the northernmost main island of Hokkaido, the Tohoku region as well as a brigade in Shikoku region started an expeditionary mission to the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan. The troops carried defense equipment during the mission, including tanks. [Japan Today 2]

Against this backdrop, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said in an interview on September 16 that Japan will no longer tolerate Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military posturing in the East China Sea. The rising tensions between the countries concern the Senkaku Islands, also known as the Diaoyu Islands in China. Japan has been expanding its Self-Defense Forces and according to Kishi, the islands “are unquestionably Japanese territory and would be defended as such.” The Minister added that Tokyo will match any Chinese threat to the islands “ship for ship”.

Tensions between China and Japan have simmered for years and claims over the islands date back centuries. China has been asserting its claims in the region with increased naval actions and a new law which expands powers of its coast guard. [CNN] [AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4]

On September 19, four Chinese government vessels temporarily entered Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands, marking 29th time this year that official Chinese vessels were seen entering Japanese waters off the Senkakus. Earlier, on August 30, seven Chinese coast guard ships were spotted near the islands. Japan filed a protest with China over this move. [NHK] [Stars and Stripes]

With regards to Taiwan, the Minister Nobuo Kishi was equally out-spoken. Noting that Taiwan sits astride Japan’s “energy lifeline” as 90% of Japan’s imported energy is imported from areas surrounding Taiwan, Kishi assured tha Japan would take the necessary response if any serious incidents occur in the Taiwan Strait. Kishi’s response echoes the country’s annual defense white paper in July, which states “the stability of Taiwan's situation is vital to Japan's security and the stability of the international community.”

Japan recently deployed missiles and troops on Yonaguni Island, which is only 100 kilometers east of Taiwan. The same deployment is planned in the near future for Ishigaki Island, which is just over 300 kilometers east of Taiwan. [CNN][Taiwan News]

For an overview of the recent efforts to deepen Japan-Taiwan relations, see [article in The Diplomat].

China urges Japan’s PM candidate not to intervene in internal affairs

(lnl) China urged the candidates for Japan’s next prime minister not to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. This comes after one of the candidates, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, pledged to create a new key post of a special adviser to the prime minister on human rights issues if elected. It aims to counter China’s alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and its crackdown on pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. [Japan Today]

China-EU relations: Brussels launches ‘Global Gateway’ to counter Belt and Road

(dql) In her annual State of the Union speech to the European Parliament, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week announced the launching of a new global infrastructure program called “Global Gateway” that seeks to “deepen trade links, strengthen global supply chains and develop new investment projects on green and digital technologies,” in line with the EU’s bid for a more global role and an increased focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

While von der Leyen did not mention China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by name, it is obvious that Global Gateway is designed to counteract the influence Beijing has cultivated through the BRI. [SupChina]

Von der Leyen also announced that the EU is looking to impose an import ban on products made from forced labor as well as a new “European Chips Act” aimed at reducing the EU’s reliance on semiconductors from Asia as part of an overall strategy to boost the bloc’s technological sovereignty.

These announcements, too, are is widely seen as aimed at China without naming it. [South China Morning Post]

China rejects stopover request of German warship

(dql) Germany’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that China denied Germany's request to allow the frigate "Bayern" to make a port call in China.

As part of Germany efforts to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific, the vessel set sail from Germany in August for a six-month mission to the region, including the South China Sea.

China’s Foreign Ministry commented on the decision to reject the port call by saying that “China hoped countries outside the region would play a ‘constructive role’ and respect regional countries’ efforts to maintain peace and stability.”

Germany, for its part, made it clear that the goal of the mission was to display support for Berlin’s allies in the region, with German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer saying before the ship’s departure: “For our partners in the Indo-Pacific, it is a reality that sea routes are no longer open and secure, and that claims to territory are being applied by the law of 'might is right'.” [CNN] [DW]

Inter-Korean relations: Ballistic missiles tested

(dql) On hours apart from each other, North and South Korea tested ballistic missiles on Wednesday, September 15.

The first test with such missiles in six months and a fresh breach of UN resolutions, Pyongyang fired two ballistic missiles across its east coast. Hours later, the Seoul tested its first submarine-launched ballistic missile. Seoul’s test was pre-planned and came not is response the North's test.

The tests reflect bleak prospects for nuclear talks on the Korean peninsula. [CNN]

Japan: North Korean missile launches threaten Japan’s security

(lnl) Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga strongly condemned North Korea’s launch of two ballistic missiles that landed in the sea off its eastern coast on Wednesday September 15, which analysts say could have nuclear capabilities. Japan’s defense ministry said the missiles landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). [Japan Today] [Reuters 1]

The latest missile launches are according to Suga a threat to peace and security in the region and came as the foreign ministers of South Korea and China held talks in Seoul amid concern over North Korea’s tests and the stalled denuclearization negotiations. [Reuters 2]

The North Korean launches came the same day that South Korea tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, the first country without nuclear weapons to develop such a system. [Reuters]

Japan, U.S., South Korea urge North Korea to return to arms talks

(lnl) On Tuesday, September 14, a three-way meeting in Tokyo was attended by senior diplomats from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea. Including U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim, South Korea’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Noh Kyu-duk and Japanese Director-General for Asian and Oceanian Affairs Takehiro Funakoshi. During the meeting all sides called on North Korea to return to talks over its missile and nuclear development, a day after it announced its successful test of new long-range cruise missiles.  [Japan Today]

Japan affirms cooperation with Vietnam and Australia after North Korea’s missile launches

(lnl) Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc affirmed close cooperation between Japan and Vietnam over phone on September 15, after North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the waters off Japan’s eastern coast.

Suga and Phuc agreed that the two countries will continue to work closely on security issues after a deal was signed this month enabling exports of Japanese-made defense equipment and technology to Vietnam. Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, meanwhile, also held a video call and affirmed cooperation between Japan and Australia in dealing with North Korea. The two leaders are expected to participate in a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington. [The Japan Times]

Japan, ASEAN in agreement to enhance efforts toward post-pandemic recovery

(lnl) Economy Ministers of Japan and the ASEAN countries have agreed during a videoconference on September 15 to increase efforts to boost economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic which has affected the industrial output, with a focus on expanding an action plan, which was adopted last year and set various goals including strengthening the resilience of supply chains, securing smooth trade procedures and promoting digital technology.

The agreement comes against the backdrop of factory shutdowns in Southeast Asia which forced Japanese carmakers to limit output due to difficulties in securing parts from suppliers in the region.

During the meeting, the ministers also reached an agreement to ensure that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement [see Air No. 18, May/2021, 1] will come into effect by early January. [Kyodo News]

South Korea, Japan hold talks on history and peninsula security

(aml) South Korea’s director general of the Ministry for Asian and Pacific Affairs Lee Sang-ryol and his Japanese counterpart Takehiro Funakoshi held talks in Tokyo on September 16 to discuss – among others – the security on the Korean peninsula, after North Korea fired off two short-range missiles last Wednesday. Funakoshi reaffirmed the importance of the two countries cooperation with the US to build lasting peace on the peninsula.

Furthermore, they talked about the thorny issue of forced labor and sexual slavery under Japan’s colonial rule over South Korea from 1910-1945. Seoul still demands an apology from Japan for its actions but Tokyo claims that everything has been settled under the 1965 Treaty on Basic Relations between the countries. Both agreed on continued close communication about the issue.

However, the tense relations between Japan and South Korea are hoped to ease a little after Japan will elect a new prime minister in November while South Korea will select a new president in March next year. With new leaders, the countries are expected to resolve their diplomatic problems more successfully. [The Korea Herald] [The Korea Times]

South Korea, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam to strengthen defense ties

(aml) South Korea’s vice defense minister Park Jae-min and his counterpart of the United Arab Emirates discussed regional security issues and ways to deepen their defense cooperation. The talks were held during Park’s four-day visit to the country before he set off to Vietnam. [The Korea Times]

Together with his Vietnamese counterpart Hoang Xuan Chien, Park elaborated ways to further cooperation in the fields of maritime security and defense education and training, as well as in the arms industry. The annual bilateral defense talk between the two countries had been established in 2012 to discuss pending defense issues and to deepen the countries’ relationship. [The Korea Herald]

South Korea, Australia reaffirm commitment to Indo-Pacific stability

(aml) During their foreign and defense minister’s talks on Monday, September 13, South Korea and Australia reaffirmed their commitment to further stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The talks between foreign minister Chung Eui-yong, defense minister Suh Wook and their Australian counterparts Marise Payne and Peter Dutton were the fifth two-plus-two talks between the countries and came amid an increasing China-US rivalry and concerns over North Korea’s recent missile launches and reactivating of a nuclear reactor. The two countries assured that their cooperation is especially important since they are “strong, like-minded democracies” and “share a similar outlook for a secure, open, prosperous Indo-Pacific that relies on free trade and the rule of law”. [The Korea Times]

China-South Korea relations: Foreign ministers hold talks

(aml) Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong met during Wang’s week-long Asia trip aimed to bolster regional ties. South Korea was the last stop after Vietnam, Cambodia, and Singapore.

The ministers discussed North Korea’s recent missile launches and South Korea’s dialogue efforts. Chung stated Seoul’s expectation that China will support Seoul’s peace initiatives.

Wang requested two countries to work together to “strengthen the sense of community” during the times of a shift in the international landscape, naming them “partners that can’t part ways”. He called for a “better, swift, stable, full-fledged and steady” development of their bilateral ties that have been established in 1992. He considers China and South Korea in the role of a “guardian of peace and stability and facilitator for development and prosperity” in the region. [The Korea Times 1] [The Korea Times 2] Before the meeting, it had been speculated that the visit was intended to increase the pressure on South Korea, who has distanced itself from the escalating US-China rivalry, not wanting to choose sides. They also had been expected to talk about the Beijing Winter Olympics, but the event hasn’t been mentioned in the official statements. [The Korea Herald][The Diplomat]

Taiwan to send delegation to Slovakia, Czech Republic, and Lithuania

(zh) Taiwan’s foreign ministry announced that it would send a 65-person investment delegation to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania next month to boost trade and investment ties.

The upcoming visit reflects Taiwan’s efforts to deepen relations with the three European countries, which all have taken a more critical stands towards China in the recent past. In July, Slovakia’s new president Zuzana Caputova had criticized Beijing’s human rights record in a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [­Reuters 1], while Lithuania had approved the plan for Taiwan to set up a de facto embassy in Vilnius with the name “Taiwan” instead of “Taipei”, angering China to withdraw its ambassador to Lithuania. Earlier in May, Lithuania had also decided to withdraw from the 17+1 cooperation mechanism between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEECs) [see AiR No.21, May/2021, 4]. [France 24][Reuters 2]

In a separate development, the Czech Republic hosted a forum on supply chain with Taiwan under the auspices of the Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF) for the first time. Titled “Global Supply Chains Reset: Opportunity and Challenges for the Czech Republic”, the seminar, also attended by the US and Japan, is the part of the GCTF workshop that was initiated by the US and Taiwan in June 2015 to help bring the island’s expertise to the world. At the opening, Czech Senate President Miloš Vystrčil called on the government to cooperate more on global supply chain with democratic partners like Taiwan, the US, and Japan. Previously held in Taiwan, this is the first time a European country has played host to the talks, signaling a closer relationship between Taiwan and the Czech Republic. [Focus Taiwan][Radio Taiwan International]

Taiwan threatens to take China to WTO after ban on fruits imports

(zh/tj) China has banned imports of wax apples and sugar apples from Taiwan, citing biosafety concerns over pests.

Taiwan’s Council of Agriculture Minister Chen Chi-chung claimed that China had acted unilaterally and had failed to provide Taiwan with any specific scientific evidence, further criticising the announcement for coming during the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, meanwhile, accused China of “weaponizing trade” and cast doubt upon China’s application for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Taiwan produces 57,000 and 47,000 metric tons of sugar apples and wax apples respectively. Around 90 percent of the exports of these two fruits are delivered to China, accounting for 23 and 10 percent of the total production of sugar and wax apples. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters][South China Morning Post]

This is the second time this year China has stopped fruit imports from Taiwan, having previously banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples citing ‘harmful creatures’ that were within the fruit, subsequently rejected by Taiwan, claiming that Beijing was playing politics [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1].

European Parliament adopts resolution on EU-Taiwan investment agreement

(zh) A resolution urging the European Union (EU) to negotiate a bilateral investment agreement (BIA) with Taiwan has been adopted by the European Parliament during a plenary session. It underlines the importance of trade and economic relations between the EU and Taiwan and calls for “concrete proposals and action” of the European Commission to encourage the island’s full participation as an observer in United Nations agencies. It also expresses “grave concern over China’s assertive and expansionist policies in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait, especially China's continued military provocation aimed at Taiwan.”

Responding to the resolution, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has called on the EU to commence trade talks soon, saying the island is looking forward to cooperate with liked-minded parent on semi-conductors and other strategic industries. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters]

United States, United Kingdom, Australia forge ‘historic’ military partnership to counter China

(lm) The United States, United Kingdom and Australia are setting up a trilateral security partnership, which will include helping Canberra to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, a move widely considered a major step by Washington toward challenging China’s territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific. The initiative, known by the acronym AUKUS, was unveiled by US President Joe Biden on September 15, joined virtually by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Australian Prime Minister Morrison said teams from the three countries would draw up a joint plan over the coming 18 months for assembling the new Australian nuclear-powered submarine fleet, which will be built in Adelaide.

While there is nothing explicitly about China in the three-way deal, there is little doubt that that the initiative is the latest in a series of moves by Western allies to push back on Beijing’s rise in the military and technology arenas. [POLITICO]

According to officials, any new nuclear-powered submarines – which will take possibly over a decade to develop – will allow Canberra to operate at a vastly higher level militarily. For nuclear submarines are able to maneuver at greater speeds and endurance, and more stealthily, than the country’s existing diesel-powered vessels, which must surface more often. At present, only six countries in the world have submarines propelled by nuclear reactors.

Against this backdrop, Morrison further insisted that Australia has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons and would abide by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but critics said the decision could set a dangerous precedent for countries to exploit a loophole in the NPT. For the treaty allows non-nuclear weapon countries to build nuclear-powered submarines, and to remove the fissile material they need for the submarine reactors from the stockpile monitored by the global watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), opening up the possibility it could be diverted to build nuclear weapons. [The New York Times 1 $]

Before now, Washington has only shared its nuclear propulsion technology with London, in a similar agreement dating back to 1958.

British sources said the conversations about the nuclear power deal were initiated by the Australians in March.

As well as cooperation on naval technology, the partnership will involve closer alignment of regional policies and actions, and greater integration of the militaries and the defense industries of the three allies. The three also intend to work together on cyberwarfare and on artificial intelligence capabilities. [The Guardian]

The agreement spells the end for a $90 billion contract Australia signed with French shipbuilder Naval Group in 2016, a deal that had become bogged down in cost over-runs, design changes, schedule slippage and local industry involvement. Calling Canberra’s and Washington’s behavior “unacceptable between allies and partners,” an infuriated Paris announced on September 17 that it was recalling its ambassadors to both countries in protest over the move. [The Australian Financial Review] [The New York Times 2, $]

India

The new, trilateral defense pact has prompted soul-searching in India about how the government should react to the announcement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will leave for the US this week to attend the first in-person “Quad” summit in Washington. He will also have a separate meeting with US President Joe Biden. [see entry in this edition]

In 2008, New Delhi and Washington signed a Civil Nuclear Agreement under which the US agreed to work towards full civil nuclear cooperation with India in exchange for India separating its civil and military nuclear facilities and committing all of its civil nuclear facilities to IAEA safeguards. The deal did not cover military nuclear cooperation.

In subsequent years, the two countries signed all four foundational agreements that Washington maintains with its other close defense partners – the last one being the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in October of last year [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. However, again, the agreements do not cover military nuclear technology.

But while the relationship between India and the US had become closer since 2000, Washington’s strategic and security ties with London and Canberra are more developed, analysts say. [India Today]

Moreover, India has become self-reliant for nuclear technology since work began on the country’s first indigenously built nuclear-powered submarine in 2009 for $2.9 billion. As part of its Project 75 Alpha program, New Delhi plans to build six nuclear-powered ones at a cost of $17 billion and another 18 conventional submarines. The submarines are being designed and built in India. Construction is expected to commence in 2023-24 and the first submarine is expected to enter service in 2032. [South China Morning Post 1]

China

For its part, China’s Foreign Ministry was quick to condemn the pact, calling it an “extremely irresponsible” move that would “severely damage regional peace and stability and intensify the arms race”. China further warned Australia “to face the reasons behind the deterioration” of Sino-Ausralian relations, and “seriously reflect on whether it should regard China as a partner or a threat.” [South China Morning Post 2]

Wang Qun, China’s envoy to the United Nations in Vienna, meanwhile, called for a rejection of the alliance by the International Atomic Energy Agency arguing that US and British assistance to Australia – a non-nuclear weapon state – in acquiring and developing nuclear-powered submarines was a “sheer act of nuclear proliferation,” “detriment of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.” Wang made the statement during a board of governors meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog. [South China Morning Post 3]

United Kingdom

For British Prime Minister Johnson, the new defense arrangement will bolster his effort to develop a “Global Britain” strategy that focuses on the Indo-Pacific, according to experts. [Atlantic Council] [Nikkei Asia]

In June, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab concluded a three-leg tour of Southeast Asia, in what observers described as an attempt of putting meat on the bones to London’s plan to reinvent itself in the region in the post-Brexit era. The visit coincided with the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 21 – led by the HMS Queen Elizabeth – making its maiden visit to the region, marking the largest concentration of maritime and air power to leave Britain in a generation. [AiR No. 26, June/2021, 5]

European Union launches Indo-Pacific plan strategy, admits US’ new ‘AUKUS’ alliance came as a surprise

(lm) After months of waiting, the European Union (EU) on September 16 finally published its long-expected Indo-Pacific Strategy – a landmark document that foresees a stronger strategic presence by Brussel and greater contribution to stability, security and sustainable socio-economic development in the region. [South China Morning Post]

Timing and context of the announcement could hardly have been more unfortunate: The previous day, the United States surprised the world by launching a new security pact with the United Kingdom and Australia under the collective name of "AUKUS". The agreement saw Canberra cancel a $90 billion deal with France to build a new submarine fleet, infuriating Paris. [see entry above] [Euronews]

Earlier in April, the Council of the EU released its conclusions on the “EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific” and the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers formally invited the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, to present a new, fully fledged strategy for the region by September [see AiR No. 16, April/2021, 3].

The 18-page-long strategy identifies seven areas in which the EU would increase its influence in the Indo-Pacific – namely health, security, data, infrastructure, the environment, trade and oceans – to protect its interests, but also to promote values such as democracy and human rights. Brussels depicts the bloc’s engagement as long-term, principled, inclusive and grounded in international law.

The EU’s new strategy envisions a larger naval presence in the region through "joint exercises and port calls with Indo-Pacific partners" and "enhanced naval deployments" of member states. It also calls for new digital partnerships with Japan, South Korea and Singapore, and closer trade and investment relations with Taiwan. [Nikkei Asia]

But not all observers reckon the strategy paper will significantly alter the EU's influence in the Indo-Pacific, mainly to its ambivalence and soft stance on China. Coupled with divisions within the bloc on exactly how active it should be in the Indo-Pacific, this has the potential to disappoint the EU’s key partners in the region, who take a much stronger position.

Although EU countries went along with US President Biden during this year's G7 meeting in Cornwall and NATO summit in Brussels in order to maintain and foster the momentum of the post-Trump era [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3], the underlining perspective was, and remains, essentially different: The EU is not willing to see China through the same lenses as the US does, a path that some fear could trigger an all-out confrontation. [EIAS] [European Commission] [Deutsche Welle] [Reuters]

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders meet for summit

The 21st meeting of the eight-member SCO Council of Heads of State on September 17 in Dushanbe was held in a hybrid format, and chaired by the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon.

India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who led the Indian delegation, addressed the summit’s plenary session on September 17 via video-link. In his speech, Modi made a case for Central Asian countries connecting with Iran’s Chabahar Port, which is being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan. Located on Iran’s energy-rich southern coast, Chabahar is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, and thus can be easily accessed from India’s western coast, bypassing Pakistan [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3].

Earlier this year, the Taliban declined to join talks with India, Iran and Uzbekistan on the port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – a major infrastructure project that aims to connect India with Russia and Europe via Iran.

India has backed the INSTC, which includes highways and railways connecting Chabahar Port with Russia to cut short the time it takes for trade shipments to reach Europe and enter the central Asian markets, and vice versa. As a result, both projects currently face delays and may have a part to play in New Delhi’s missing its target of boosting overall merchandise exports to $400 billion in the current fiscal year ending in March 2022.

Representing India in Dushanbe, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended a meeting on Afghanistan of the heads of state of the SCO and the pre-summit meeting of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). India has shown keen interest in deepening its security-related cooperation with the SCO and its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), which specifically deals with issues relating to security and defense.

Jaishankar also held a bilateral meeting with his counterpart from Armenia, a member state in the INSTC. [Public Radio of Armenia]

Pakistan

In the run-up to the summit, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 14 to “coordinate” their position on the situation in Afghanistan. [Al Jazeera]

Upon his arrival in Dushanbe, the Pakistani premier on September 16 inaugurated the maiden meeting of the Pakistan-Tajikistan Business Forum, which aims to promote business-to-business contacts between the trading communities of both countries. [Dawn 1]

During the summit then, Khan highlighted the need to mobilize international support for an immediate humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. He also said that Islamabad would continue to support the war-torn neighboring country, and – in a clear shot not only at the United States but also India – argued that Afghanistan could not be “controlled from the outside”. [The Hindu]

Khan also met with his counterparts from Belarus, Uzbekistan, Iran and Kazakhstan on the sidelines of the event. He also met with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, the first meeting between the two leaders since the hardline cleric close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assumed office last month. [Associated Press of Pakistan] [Dawn 2]

China

Addressing the SCO summit via video link, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the international community to oppose “acts that undermine the international order, create confrontation, and create division under the banner of so-called rules setting,” in an apparent side blow against Aukus, before pledging to provide 1,000 training opportunities in poverty alleviation for other countries of the SCO and to launch ten Luban Workshops – projects designed to provide state-of-the-art technical and vocational training and facilitate cooperation between vocational schools around the world. In addition, Xi offered 30 cooperation projects in multiple areas including health, poverty relief, culture and education under the framework of the Silk Road Community Building Initiative. [China Daily]

Iran

meanwhile, announced that is has been accepted as full member of the SCO, becoming the eighth member state of the organization next to China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Iran had been observer since 2005.

In his speech to the summit, President Ebrahim Raisi underscored his main stated foreign policy goal of expanding political, economic and cultural relations with countries across the region and protect his country from unilateral punishments from the West. [Aljazeera]

India tells China border troop pullback needed for better ties

(lm) India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that progress in the disengagement process along the disputed Himalayan border is essential for the restoration and development of ties between their countries. The two top diplomats met on the sidelines of the 21st Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on September 16 in Dushanbe to discuss the possibility of both sides withdrawing from their high-altitude face-off. [The Indian Express] [The Straits Times]

As two major emerging economies, China and India should push bilateral ties back to a healthy and stable track, rather than resort to “emergency response”, Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. [Hindustan Times]

As a result of a series of military and diplomatic talks, the two sides have so far completed the disengagement process at three friction areas to end the military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Last month, troops of both sides pulled back from Patrolling Point 17A – Gogra Post – located in the Galwan Valley area where at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed in June of last year [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2].

But China is yet to show inclination to withdraw from other newly occupied areas, namely Patrolling Point 15 at Hot Springs, and the Depsang Plains in eastern Ladakh, both of which did not feature in the piecemeal disengagement process [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Each side currently has around 50,000 to 60,000 troops along the LAC.

Moreover, several forces from the People Liberation Army’s (PLA) Xinjiang Military District have been carrying out night battle drills at altitudes of around 5,000 meters to familiarize themselves with new equipment, including combat vehicles and self-propelled rapid-fire mortars, military newspaper PLA Daily reported [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has sent a letter of encouragement to a PLA unit stationed in Tibet on the China-India border, praising the troops for their “great job” over the past five years. [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2]

According to previous Chinese reports, the unit is based in a city close to India’s remote eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, a major part of which is claimed by Beijing as part of the South Tibet region. Earlier last month, the unit joined ten other brigades and regiments affiliated with the PLA’s Tibet Military Command for large-scale joint exercises on a Himalayan peak, seen by military observers as an attempt to intimidate neighboring India [see AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5].

Shortly thereafter, Xi promoted Wang Haijiang, a senior PLA officer, to general and as new Commander of the Western Theater Command, whose primary strategic direction is India and the contested border regions. Wang possesses particular expertise in the Western Theatre, having earlier served as Commander of the Tibet military region, which also borders India. He was also deputy commander of the southern Xinjiang military region, which is the military region that has been directly engaged with India during the LAC crisis that began in the summer of 2020. [The HIndu]

Pakistan calls for unfreezing of Afghan assets ahead of UN General Assembly

(lm) Ahead of talks on Afghanistan at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has called on world powers to unblock billions of dollars in Afghan assets frozen after the Taliban takeover.

Just days after the fall of Kabul, the United States froze nearly $9.5 billion in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank and stopped shipments of cash to the nation in an attempt to keep the Taliban – which remains on the US Treasury Department’s sanctions designation list – from accessing the money.

But Foreign Minister Qureshi on September 20 said the most urgent priority was averting an even deeper economic collapse of Afghanistan that could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. The Pakistani top diplomat also voiced hope that the Taliban would be more inclusive after forming an interim government, but also appeared to share the US stance that it was premature to establish formal ties. [The Straits Times]

Several members of the Afghan caretaker government are leaders of the powerful Haqqani network, a militant group associated with some of the most violent terrorist attacks of recent times and is believed to be holding at least one US citizen hostage. American and former Afghan officials have charged that the US-designated terrorist organization was covertly sponsored by Pakistan’s military-led intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. The Pakistani government denies those charges. [ABC News] [The Washington Post, $]

During an international donor conference on September 14, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Pakistan to “line up” with the rest of the world in denying legitimacy to the Taliban regime unless it meets international demands. [France24]

But Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, in an interview the following day, said the world should “incentivize” rather than pressure the Taliban. Further, he claimed that the new caretaker government was looking for international aid to avoid a crisis, which could be used to push the group in "the right direction towards legitimacy." [CNN]

Khan repeated his appeal on September 16 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tajikistan. While meeting with his counterparts from Belarus, Uzbekistan, Iran and Kazakhstan, the prime minister urged that “Afghans should not be left alone” as their new government struggles to organize and tackle widespread social ills after years of war, Pakistani Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said in a video statement, quoting Khan. [Dawn]

Despite the close relationship it has maintained with the Taliban over the years, Islamabad appears now increasingly fearful of an impending refugee crisis amid the tumult in Afghanistan. Earlier this month, Pakistan sent supplies such as cooking oil and medicine to authorities in Kabul. [AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2]

United States to host leaders of Australia, India and Japan for first in-person Quad summit

(lm) US President Biden will host his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan at the White House on September 24, the first time the leaders of the "Quad" countries will gather for an in-person summit. [Axios]

The four countries held their first meeting in March virtually, pledging to increase vaccine supplies to countries in Southeast Asia — a plan that was later complicated when India stopped most vaccine exports. At the time, also put their stamp on the creation of working groups, which would focus on climate change, and critical, emerging technology, and vaccine production, respectively. [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]

News of the upcoming summit follows two recent meetings by US administration officials with China, including a phone call on September 10 between the US president and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in which Xi told Biden that the countries’ relations were facing “serious difficulties” because of Washington’s policies towards China. [South China Morning Post]

Nepal, India sign deal to construct 400kV transmission line

(lm) Nepal and India have signed an agreement to pave the way for the construction of a second cross-border transmission line between the two neighbors, in a step that could be a precursor to a United States-backed project to upgrade the Himalayan nation’s power grid.

Under the deal, signed on September 15 in New Delhi, the two countries will develop the 400kV Butwal-Gorakhpur Cross-Border Transmission Line on the Indian side through joint investment, while Nepal will develop the transmission line’s segment on its side by itself. [The Kathmandu Post]

The Millennium Challenge Corporation, a bilateral United States foreign aid agency, has made the signing of an agreement between New Delhi and Kathmandu on building the cross-border transmission line a prerequisite for the implementation of a compact agreement. [see also entry in this edition]

Once the Butwal-Gorakhpur line is completed, Nepal will be able to export up to 2,000mW of electricity, much more than the present Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur corridor that can handle only 300mW.

The new transmission line will not just be able to export electricity during the monsoon when India’s farm sector sees a surge in power demand, but can also be part of new power deals with Bangladesh in future. Moreover, Kathmandu can import energy through this line during the dry season when the plants run at less than 50 percent of their capacity.

Nepal-Bangladesh joint committee on cooperation in power sector holds third meeting

(lm) Nepal and Bangladesh held the third round of their Joint Steering Committee on Cooperation in the Power Sector through video channel on September 14, after more than two years since the committee’s last meeting in June 2019.

During last week’s virtual encounter, Nepal proposed to export around 200 MW of electricity to Bangladesh utilising the existing power-transmission infrastructure through India. Bangladesh, however, informed that it was final talks over the import of around 500 MW electricity from the Upper Karnali Storage Hydropower Project, an under-construction hydroelectric plant with an estimated future capacity of 900 MW.

Bangladesh, which is facing growing energy demand and it is energy-deficient, in July announced it would import around 700 MW of hydropower from Nepal via transmission lines over neighboring India, and continue to invest in hydropower plants in both Nepal and Bhutan under bipartite or tripartite arrangements.

So far, Nepal has developed less than 1.2 GW of hydropower, which is a tiny fraction of the total economic potential. Even with the ongoing hydropower developments, about 88 percent of the economic potential of hydropower is available for further development, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank published last year. [Asian Development Bank]

In February, Nepal’s Investment Board (IBN) decided to award the contract for construction of a hydropower project to India’s Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN). Delegated under the build–own–operate–transfer (BOOT) project delivery method, ownership of the project will be transferred back to the Nepalese government after 20 years of commercial operation. [AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]

Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat in India talks amid fears of new Taliban repression

(lm) India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held talks with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in New Delhi on September 19 amid growing fears of a return to a repressive Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

Saudi Arabia's top Saudi diplomat arrived in the Indian capital for a two-day visit the previous day and was expected to call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday. It was the first high-level visit by a Saudi minister to India since the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent travel curbs early last year. [Arab News]

Prince Faisal’s visit comes amid the recent political changes in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s return to power last month, marking the first official interaction between the two allies who in 2019 had signed a Strategic Partnership Council Agreement. [Hindustan Times] [India Today]

In a sign of growing defense ties between the two countries, the Navies of India and Saudi Arabia last month concluded their first-ever joint maritime drill – Al-Mohed Al-Hindi 2021 – which comprised several shore and sea-based exercises. [AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]

EU concerned over Sri Lanka’s unwillingness to support UN framework

(egm) Speaking at the 48th session of the UN Human Rights Council (UN HRC) in Geneva, a delegation of the European Union (EU) on September 14 expressed the bloc’s disappointment over Sri Lanka’s refusal to support the UN’s framework on accountability, reconciliation and human rights in the country through the Council's resolution 46/1 and the need to amend the much criticized Prevention of Terrorism Act [see also AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]. [DailyMirror 1]

Earlier in March, the UN HRC decisively adopted Resolution 46/1 to ramp up international monitoring and reporting mechanisms on the human rights situation in Sri Lanka. The resolution, inter alia, mandates the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet to collect, consolidate and preserve evidence for future prosecutions and “develop possible strategies” for pursuing prosecutions of perpetrators. [AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5]

With respect to Resolution 46/1, the EU stresses the importance of the government’s commitment to collaborate with the UN to forward the country’s reconciliation process, strengthen the rule of law, welcome civil society to the dialogue on governance and meet international human rights standards .[European Union]

Additionally, according to the Ambassador, the EU calls on Sri Lanka to adhere to its obligations regarding the reconciliation efforts of the Office for Missing Persons (OMP) and the Office for Reparations by ensuring their independence and the continuation of their work without any obstacles.

To this end, a delegation of the European Commission is expected to carry out a fact-finding operation in Sri Lanka this month. The same body is in charge of decisions regarding the country’s continuation of its GSP+ membership [see also AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]. [DailyMirror 2]

Earlier this year, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the deterioration of human rights in Sri Lanka and called on the Commission to consider suspending Colombo’s GSP+ status, which provides better access to EU markets in return for progress implementing international human rights treaties. [AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4]

Bangladesh signs trade and investment agreement with Australia

(ad) Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi and his Australian counterpart Dan Tehan on September 15 signed the Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement (TIFA) between their countries. The first of this kind between Australia and Bangladesh in the last five decades. TIFA is expected to provide a platform for institutionalized economic interactions and to open newer opportunities for trade and investment between the two countries. [Dhaka Tribune]

Bangladesh: State Minister meets with Spanish Ambassador

(ad) During the meeting between Bangladesh’s State Minister for Shipping, Khalid Mahmud Chowdhury and Spanish Ambassador, mutual interests of both countries were discussed. The meeting was conducted on September 16 and Spain emphasized its intention to financially assist in Bangladesh´s shipbuilding sector and to invest in river – cleaning vessels that shall clean up the garbage and prevent river pollution.[Dhaka Tribune]

Bangladesh: PM Sheikh Hasina joins 76th United Nations General Assembly

(ad) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left for a two-week official visit to New York on September 17 where she is expected to attend 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). During the UNGA, Sheikh Hasina will address the General Debate at UN Headquarters on various issues.

Alongside with attending UNGA, Sheikh Hasina shall hold several separate bilateral meetings with leaders from different countries and meet with EU Council President Charles Michel. Further, she is scheduled to attend other events such as the White House Global Covid-19 Summit, Food Systems Summit and an event in regards with Rohingya crisis.

Sheikh Hasina is accompanied by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr Abdul Momen and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md Shahriar Alam. [Dhaka Tribune 1] [Dhaka Tribune 2]

Southeast Asian countries’ reaction to Aukus

(nd) Indonesia and Malaysia voiced concerns to be caught in a war in the contested waterway and that the Aukus pact between the US, the UK and Australia gives way to a nuclear arms race. In a statement, the Indonesia’s foreign ministry said that “Indonesia is deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region” and they would be “watching with caution.” Newly appointed Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob added that the pact “will provoke other powers to act more aggressively in the region, especially in the South China Sea."

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, however, commented more neutrally, hoping the deal “would contribute constructively to the peace and stability of the region and complement the regional architecture.” The wording suggested somewhat support for a deterrent military presence. Likewise, the Philippines came out in support of the agreement on September 21, saying it was more likely to enhance the balance than disrupt it.

The Indonesian army has increased its patrols around Natuna island after Chinese and US vessels were spotted in its exclusive economic zone. While China does not claim the island, it asserts fishing rights within the self-proclaimed nine-dash line, which is disputed internationally and was rejected by a 2016 arbitration court ruling involving the Philippines. Indonesia does not consider itself formally as a claimant state, by which it hoped to disperse tensions.

Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have not commented on the pact. Their cautious and slow reaction reflects the predominant notion of the region to not be drawn into US-Chinese conflicts. While Aukus could give more confidence to claimant states against China in the South China Sea for it makes military moves more costly, it highlights that ASEAN becomes less relevant for its region security structure. Additionally, it entails external intervention without prior consultation with ASEAN. [Jakarta Post] [Reuters 1] [Benar News 1] [Benar News 2] [Reuters 2]

Meanwhile, Australia seeks to disperse concerns in Southeast Asia. Australia's ambassador to ASEAN pledged that his country "will not seek nuclear weapons" and promised that AUKUS will not change the Indo-Pacific security architecture led by the Southeast Asian bloc. Parallelly, three Australian naval ships arrived in Vietnam for a four-day stopover on September 20, after visiting Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. Australia’s navy kicked off the Indo-Pacific-Endeavour 2021 in August to “provide an opportunity for Australia to engage with Southeast Asian partners beyond traditional military activities.” Indo-Pacific Endeavour is an annual event to “strengthen Australia’s engagement and partnerships with regional security forces”, which began in 2017 but did not take place last year due to the pandemic. [Nikkei Asia] [Benar News]

Myanmar: NUG to open representative office in South Korea

(nd) The National Unity Government (NUG) has established a representative office in South Korea. They have already set up representative offices in the US, UK, France, Czech Republic and Australia, making it the first in Asia. This forms part of NUG’s effort to find international recognition in its fight for legitimacy with the military.

While a representative office does not entail official recognition, it opens up a communication channel for officials. South Koreans have been invested in the situation in Myanmar, possibly echoing the Gwangju Uprising of 1980, which carried protests against martial law, which was imposed by the South Korean military after a coup. [Nikkei Asia]

China pushes ahead with ambitious developments in Myanmar

(ds) On September 15, an agreement was signed that will allow preliminary field investigation work to take place as part of a deep seaport project, forming the centerpiece of the far-reaching infrastructure network named the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The port deal will boost the economy of the Rakhine region and allow China alternative access to the Indian ocean by avoiding the highly-trafficked Strait of Malacca near Singapore. [The Irrawaddy 1]

Despite slowdowns and violent unrest in the country, CMEC projects have forged ahead including the opening of a rail freight line connecting China’s Yunnan Province to the Burmese state of Shan. Once complete, the link between Yunnan with the Indian Ocean the CMEC aims to create a lucrative route for Beijing’s oil supplies, thus improving its strategic sway in Southeast Asia and countering India as regional power. [Wilson Center]

Large Chinese-backed investments were made during the ousted government’s administration, with whom Beijing had formed close ties especially with detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Agreements have also been signed between China and regional groups particularly in the Myanmar’s northern states. By aligning with opposing forces, including the armed ethnic insurgents, as well as the military junta, observers have pointed out that China appears to be hedging its diplomatic bets in Myanmar, with the ultimate goal of securing its growing regional infrastructure network. [The Irrawaddy 2] 

Thailand, Malaysia insisting no signs of attacks despite Japan’s terror warning

(kk) Thai and Malaysian officials see no imminent threat despite Japan’s warning of possible suicide bomb attacks in Southeast Asia.

Japan warned its citizen residing in six Southeast Asian nations, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Singapore, to “strengthen their vigilance against terrorism” and take precautions. The warning followed a report by US-based Site Intelligence Group, monitoring extremist communications online, that a pro-Islamic State (IS) militant group in Afghanistan had declared it was “time for war,” specifically in the six Southeast Asian nations.

Meanwhile, a deputy spokesman for Thailand’s national police force stated there was no current intelligence regarding terror threats, adding that Japan’s warning could be a “routine warning”. The Thai foreign ministry confirmed that Japan’s foreign ministry had issued a possible terror warning to its citizen in Thailand and other countries in the region, but the latter did not identify the source. The Japanese Embassy in Bangkok also had no further details about possible attacks. Similarly, Normah Ishak – the chief of the Malaysian police’s counter-terrorism branch – said Japan’s warning was a routine one as there was no credible information of an imminent attack from their side.

A Malaysian security analyst indicated that Japan’s warning was likely influenced by recent events in Afghanistan. Earlier, officials in Southeast Asian countries said that the Taliban’s return to power could inspire other terror groups in Southeast Asia. [BenarNews]

Vietnam, Cuba to discuss deeper cooperation

(nd) President Nguyen Xuan Phuc met with Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz in Havana to discuss measures to strengthen their bilateral partnership. Next to economic cooperation, Phuc proposed to deepen collaboration with respect to the healthcare sector. Cuba provided medical experts and vaccinations to Vietnam. [Vietnam News]

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Global Terrorist Movements as Global actors

This webinar will be looking into counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, discussing key aspects of the global crisis of terrorism.

To find more details please go on [AIIA].

22 September 2021 @ 5:00 - 7:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Afghanistan after the Withdrawal: implication for the Indo-Pacific Region

With most spotlights on the effects of US influence on the return of the Taliban, the Muslim world and Indo-Pacific region are the one bearing the biggest consequences. This webinar will be discussing this issue and the consequences front the perspective of the Indo-Pacific region and Muslim world.

For more details check [AIIA].

22 September 2021 @ 12:30 - 1:30 p.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

The Politics, Economics, and Regional Dynamics of Lebanon’s Power Crisis

With Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis as a consequence to the costly and inefficient power sector, this session will be discussing where Lebanon’s power generation stands today, the feasibility of the current plan, and the long-awaited breakthrough for its energy crisis.

Please visit [MEI] for more details.

22 September 2021 @ 9:00 -10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Russia’s Strategic Role in Afghanistan and Central Asia

Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Afghan government that sent geopolitical shockwaves throughout Eurasia, this event will be discussing Russia’s strategic and military role in Afghanistan and Central Asia post-U.S. and NATO withdrawal.

To learn more, visit [CSIS].

22 September 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:20 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Five Years of U.S. - Laos Comprehensive Partnership

This event will be discussing the war legacies, economic ties, political, and security relations between the U.S. and Laos.

Visit [CSIS] to learn more details.

22 September 2021 @ 9:00 - 10.15 a.m. (GMT-4), Stimson, USA

ASEAN and the Return of Geopolitics to the Indo-Pacific

This upcoming event will be discussing the future of ASEAN in the midst of the rising geopolitical tensions between US and China and its competing narratives about issues like the pandemic, climate change, trading, and political challenges.

Go on [Stimson] to register.

22 September 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Open Society Foundations, USA

Global Consequences of the War on Drugs: Perspectives from Former Open Society Fellows

This event will be examining the international impacts of the war on drugs, providing new perspectives on how to shift drug policy from prohibition and punishment to health and human rights.

Check [OSF] for further details.

22 September 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, USA

The Gulf and a World in Transition: A Conversation with Bahraini Ambassador to the US Sheikh Abdulla Bin Rashid Al Khalifa

This session will be looking further into the history and current status of the Abraham Accords, the landmark establishment of diplomatic relations between Bahrain and the UAE with the State of Israel. There will also be discussions regarding the impacts on Bahrain and the Gulf of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and perspectives on the security challenges faced by Bahrain.

Check [Belfer Center] webpage to find more details.

23 September 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Myanmar, After the Coup, in the World

This webinar will be discussing the difference on how external interlocutors are navigating their interactions with Myanmar, and the bilateral and multilateral implications of Myanmar’s engagement with major stakeholders and regional actors.

Go on [ISEAS] to find more details on the event.

23 September 2021 @ 3:00 - 4:00 p.m (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA

The Use of Air Power in Modern Conflict

This discussion will be mainly focusing on the costs and consequences of the US’ reliance upon airpower, specifically unmanned aerial vehicles, to prosecute countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and many more.

To learn more, check [FPRI].

23 September 2021 @ 9:30 - 11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center & Global Development, USA

Rethinking Humanitarian Reform: What Will it Take to Deliver a People-Driven System?

With the increasing global demand for humanitarian aid, driven by climate change, pandemics and increasing inequalities, this session will be focusing on discussions on identifying signs of progress and how to drive change further.

Check [CGD] to learn more.

23 September 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Middle Institute, USA

Iran Facing Outward: Changing Politics, Military Doctrine, and Border Issues

With over four decades of tribulations that have threatened Iran’s stability and regional influence, this event will be discussing the Afghan-Iranian geopolitical relations and the foreign policy drivers of populism in Iran.

Check [MI] to find out more about the event.

23 September 2021 @ 10:00 -11:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Stimson, USA

From UNGA to COP26 & Beyond: The Future of Climate Governance

As the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change delineates the little chance to achieve the agreed climate change mitigation targets, this event will be discussing the new approaches, innovations, and strategies of the international community as a response to this issue.

Visit [Stimson] for more details.

23 September 2021@ 11:00 a.m. - 12.30 p.m. (GMT+9:30), Strategic & Defence Studies Centre Australian National University, Australia

The Evolution of an Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation Network: Joint Military Exercises Involving China

This session will be focusing on the changes in security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region  and how regional countries have carried out an increasing number of security cooperation activities with China, even with the absence of formal alliance ties.

Check [SDS] to learn more about the session.

23 September 2021 @ 4:00 - 5:00 p.m. (GMT-7), World Affairs, USA

What’s Going On with North Korea

With North Korea continuing testing and production on nuclear weapons that still remain a great concern to the Biden administration and East Asian allies, this webinar will be discussing these issues from the point of view of experts in the field of nuclear weapons control and elimination.

More information can be found in [WA].

24 September 2021 @ 9:30 - 10:45 a.m. (GMT-4), Center & Global Development, USA

On Power, Partnerships, and Policymaking: How to Realize the Potential of Evidence-to-Policy Partnerships

The pandemic has highlighted the needs for high-quality and context-specific evidence for effective policy responses and political credibility. This event will be discussing how effective models can be drawn up from various partnership works, barriers to the progress, and other recommendations to alleviate these challenges.

Go on [CGD] to see more details.

24 September 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Why Acute US-China Rivalry will Endure and Cause Decline in US Influence in Southeast Asia

This webinar will focus on the origins and evolution of US domestic politics underlying the remarkable U.S.- China relations.

Visit [ISEAS] for more details.

27 September 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT+9), Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan

China’s Perception of the Situation in Afghanistan

This event will be discussing the ongoing change in Afghanistan, from the point of view of China on this situation. The discussion will also include how the withdrawal of U.S. forces affects the circumstance.

Please visit [SPF] for more details.

27 September 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Africa’s Security Challenges: A View from Congress, the Pentagon, and USAID

With Sub-Saharan Africa being the home to various security challenges due to terrorism, piracy, civil conflict, and strategic competition, this event will be discussing how Washington should approach these issues.

Check [CSIS] webpage for more information.

28 September 2021 @ 10:00 - 10:45 a.m. (GMT-4), The Heritage Foundation, USA

Securing America’s Waters: A Conversation with U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Karl Schultz

With the U.S. Coast Guard being a vital tool to the nation’s security, supporting various missions and the American maritime prosperity. This event will be looking further into the challenges it continues to face as the strategic environment grows more complex and the increasing modernization of its ships and infrastructure.

Visit [HF] to find more information.

28 September 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. (GMT+2), Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Africa’s Security Partnership with China: Looking to the Future

This event will be looking at the advancing relation between Africa and China, including areas like its security cooperation, peace operations, counter-terrorism, and the African Peace and Security Architecture.

Find out more in [ISS].

Recent Book Releases 

George Makari, Of Fear and Strangers: A History of Xenophobia, Norton, 368 pages, September 14, 2021. Find a review at [The New Times].

Sumit Guha, Tribe and State in Asia through Twenty-Five Centuries, Columbia University Press for The Association for Asian Studies, 142 pages, August 2, 2021, discussed in [Foreign Policy].

David A. Price, Geniuses at War: Bletchley Park, Colossus, and the Dawn of the Digital Age, Knopf, 256 pages, June 22, 2021, with a review in [The New York Times].

Spencer Ackerman, Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump, Viking , 448 pages, August 10, 2021, with a review in [Slate].

Kyoko Hatakeyama, Japan’s Evolving Security Policy: Militarisation within a Pacifist Tradition, Routledge, 188 pages, March 22, 2021. Fore more information see [Routledge].

Gargi Bhattacharyya, Adam Elliott-Cooper, Sita Balani, Kerem Nişancıoğlu, Kojo Koram, Dalia Gebrial, Nadine El-Enany and Luke de Noronha, Empire’s Endgame: Racism and the British State, Pluto Press, 240 pages, February 20, 2021, reviewed in [LSE].

Pratinav Anil and Christophe Jaffrelot, India’s First Dictatorship: The Emergency, 1975-1977, Harper Collins, 536 pages, February 7, 2021, reviewed in [The Telegraph].

Daniel Combs, Until the World Shatters: Truth, Lies, and the Looting of Myanmar, Melville House, 400 pages, March 9, 2021, reviewed in [Asian Review of Books].

Calls for Papers

The College English Association welcomes proposals for presentations for the 51st annual conference on the theme “Justice”. The conference will be held on March 31 – April 2, 2022. Closing date for submissions is November 1, 2021. For more information, see [CEA].

Glocalism: Journal of Culture, Politics and Innovation is accepting paper proposals for its 2022/1 issue on “The Glocalization of Technocultures” Closing date for submissions is January 31, 2022. For more details, see [Glocalism].

Jobs and Positions

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is hiring a Project Manager to be based in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Deadline for applications is October 5, 2021. Find out more at [UNDP].

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) is offering the position of Head of Programme for Cameroon. Closing date for applications is October 7, 2021. Visit [NRC] for more information.

World Vision International (World Vision) is recruiting a Regional Operations Director for Latin America. Applications will be accepted until October 7, 2021. Further details are provided at [World Vision].

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