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March 17, 2021 - Brief Issue 169

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Dr. Fauci Warns Against Relaxing Coronavirus Restrictions as More Fatal U.K. Variant Poised to Become Dominant in U.S. (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Hotspots Pop Up Throughout U.S., Despite Overall Decline in Cases (Health & Science)

Moderna Starts Testing Vaccine On Children (Health & Science)

Conflict Arises Over U.S. Involvement in Brazil’s Handling of Sputnik V Vaccine (Health & Science)

Mucosal Antibodies Found in Saliva of Vaccinated Health Care Workers (Health & Science)

Health Officials Express Concern Over AstraZeneca Pauses in Europe (Health & Science)

PM Says Paris Needs More Restrictions as France Enters Third Wave of Infections (Around the World)

Papua New Guinea Faces Outbreak (Around the World)

China Approves Another Covid-19 Vaccine (Around the World)

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Names 4th Health Minister During Pandemic (Around the World)

California Governor Newsom: Recall Effort Likely Has Enough Signatures (U.S. Government & Politics)

FAA to Extend “Zero Tolerance” Policy As Long As Federal Mask Mandate In Effect (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Retail Sales and Manufacturing Slip But a Rebound Still Expected (U.S. Economy)

How Gyms are Adjusting as They Reopen (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,549,556 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 536,914 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 374,442,857 tests and distributed 142,918,525 vaccine doses, with 110,737856 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 120,738,957 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,671,473 deaths. At least 68,471,173 people have recovered from the virus.

Dr. Fauci Warns Against Relaxing Coronavirus Restrictions as More Fatal U.K. Variant Poised to Become Dominant in U.S.

Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci delivered an update on the country’s efforts to curb Covid-19 on Tuesday, offering the encouraging prediction that vaccinations will gradually bring back a sense of normalcy over the summer and fall (WSJ). Still, Fauci cautioned against lifting public health measures too quickly, lest the U.S. experience another surge in cases similar to Europe’s. “When we get to true normality, that depends on many things happening,” he said. Fauci extolled the importance of widespread vaccination, and noted that booster shots may be required as more slippery variants – like the U.K. strain, B.1.1.7 – become more prevalent. 

Health experts are projecting that by the end of the March or early April, the highly contagious B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant will become dominant in the U.S., according to Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CNN). A recent study published in the British Medical Journal found this variant to be significantly more deadly than previous dominant strains (Forbes, Reuters). While research shows vaccines to be generally effective against B.1.1.7, the proportion of vaccinated Americans is not necessarily high enough to prevent another surge in Covid-19 cases. Former CDC director Richard Besser, like Dr. Fauci, urged Americans to keep up prevention measures, like masks and social distancing, until more people are vaccinated. 

Covid-19 Hotspots Pop Up Throughout U.S., Despite Overall Decline in Cases 

Covid-19 cases are continuing to fall nationally, as over 2 million Americans get vaccinated every day (WaPo). But despite the overall downward trend, parts of the East Coast and Upper Midwest are emerging as new viral hotspots. Michigan’s daily infections doubled between Feb. 21 and March 15, with hospitalizations also increasing; Minnesota’s cases rose by 62% between February 24 and March 4. Numbers are also rising in Maryland, New Jersey, and the New York City area. Still, restrictions are loosening nationwide – New York City, for example, just lifted some limits on indoor dining and large gatherings – and behavior is changing too, as air travel just hit its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic. 

David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said these increases aren’t yet a “wave,” but they do indicate a “resurgence” of the virus. As more dangerous, faster-spreading variants like B.1.1.7 take root in the U.S, experts worry these smaller hotspots could explode into a widespread surge. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, explained that the U.S should look to Europe for insight on the dangers of new variants. “What Europe is telling us is that we haven’t yet begun to see the impact of B.1.1.7 here,” he said. 

Moderna Starts Testing Vaccine On Children

Though the Moderna vaccine is currently authorized for use only in adults 18 and older, the company announced Tuesday that it has begun testing vaccines on children aged 6 months to 12 years (NPR, NYT, Moderna). The company is already testing the vaccine on adolescents and plans on releasing those results by the summer. 

For its pediatric study, Moderna has an expected sample size of 6,750 children, each of whom will receive two vaccine doses, 28 days apart. Children between 2 and 12 years old will receive doses of either 50 or 100 micrograms – adults are currently given 100 – and children below 2 years old will receive doses of 25, 50, or 100 micrograms. Lower doses will be administered first, and those children will be monitored before Moderna raises the doses for other children in the trial. Researchers will monitor side effects and antibody levels in the participants for a year after.

Other vaccine makers are looking toward younger demographics. The Pfizer/BioNTech shot, which is authorized for use in adults 16 and older, currently has 2,259 adolescents between 12 and 15 years old enrolled in a vaccine study. Johnson & Johnson announced it will begin testing its vaccine in younger children after it completes trials on older children. AstraZeneca is testing on children 6 years and older in Britain. 

Most children do not become severely infected with Covid-19, though there have been some reports of a dangerous inflammatory response. Dr. David Wohl, vaccine clinic director at the University of North Carolina, said the results of these trials will be illuminating: “There is a huge demand to find out about vaccinating kids and what it does.” Wohl said Moderna’s study looked well-designed, but he is surprised to see vaccines being tested in very young children so soon. Moderna also announced Monday that it had begun evaluation of its next-generation coronavirus vaccine, which could be more transportable than the existing version (Moderna).

Conflict Arises Over U.S. Involvement in Brazil’s Handling of Sputnik V Vaccine

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ annual report may indicate that health officials, under former president Donald Trump, urged Brazil to turn down Russia’s coronavirus vaccine (WaPo). This report was released in January, but the official Twitter page of Russia’s vaccine, Sputnik V, drew attention to it on Monday, tweeting, “Efforts to undermine the vaccines are unethical and are costing lives.”

The report explains that the U.S. government tried to “dissuade countries [Brazil] in the region from accepting aid from these ill-intentioned states [Russia].” The U.S. Embassy in Brazil said its representatives “have never discouraged Brazil from accepting vaccines against Covid-19 that have been authorized by their respective regulatory bodies,” though Brazil has not yet authorized Sputnik V. A statement from Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said the U.S. had not advised Brazil on this matter. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has claimed that many countries are being dissuaded from purchasing the Russian vaccine (Reuters). 

There has been other controversy over Sputnik V because it bypassed regulatory steps, generating skepticism. But the shot is now approved in over 12 countries and a study published in The Lancet demonstrated its efficacy (WaPo). Brazil reached a deal with Russia last week, announcing it would purchase 10 million doses of Sputnik V. Only 2.3% of Brazilians are fully vaccinated, and the country has the second-highest Covid-19 death rate in the world. 

Mucosal Antibodies Found in Saliva of Vaccinated Health Care Workers

A group of researchers in the U.S. and the Netherlands found antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid-19, in the saliva of healthcare workers fully vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna shot (Medical Life Sciences). The authors of the forthcoming study explained that vaccines trigger an immune response to SARS-CoV-2, namely by helping the body build up neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) that target the receptor binding domain of the virus’ spike protein. Vaccines are known to help the body produce serum antibodies, found in blood; whether the vaccine also boosts mucosal antibodies has not been well-studied. But, the authors explained, because SARS-CoV-2 is often transmitted orally or nasally, these mucosal antibodies might play an important role in limiting infection. The preliminary results of the study showed that indeed, vaccines support mucosal immunity. Out of the 37 Pfizer recipients and eight Moderna recipients studied, 100% had a “substantial proportion” of mucosal antibodies in their saliva.

Bonus Read: “Some Long-Haul Covid-19 Patients Say Their Symptoms Are Subsiding After Getting Vaccines,” (NYT).

Health Officials Express Concern Over AstraZeneca Pauses in Europe

As more European countries suspend use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine due to worries over its side effects, health experts stand behind the safety of the vaccine (NYT, WaPo). Emer Cooke, executive director of the European Medicines Association, which is investigating reports of blood clotting and hemorrhages in AstraZeneca recipients, said the organization is “firmly convinced” that the benefits of the shot outweigh its risks. So far, Cooke said, there is no evidence of a causal link between blood clotting issues and AstraZeneca’s vaccine; the prevalence of blood clots in vaccine recipients is no higher than that of the general population. EMA will focus its investigation on blain clots – a much rarer issue associated with the AstraZeneca shot in scattered reports – and will release a more definitive statement on Thursday. 

Health experts fear that this upset of AstraZeneca distribution will slow already flagging vaccination efforts in Europe. Currently, no country in the European Union is on track to meet its goal of reaching 70% immunity by September. Dr. Don Goldmann of Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health said the AstraZeneca shot is crucial to Europe’s vaccination timeline: “It is going to be delayed and much harder to have enough of the alternative vaccines to have a coordinated rapid response.” European leaders are trying to build confidence, touting their own experiences with AstraZeneca’s shot. Meanwhile, other countries worldwide – including Thailand, India, and Australia – continue to administer the AstraZeneca vaccine (NYT).

Bonus Read: “How Covid-19 Has Exacerbated LGBTQ+ Health Inequalities,” (British Medical Journal). 

Around the World

Europe

Bonus Read: “Unraveling the mystery of Europe’s uneven covid surges;” (WaPo). 

French PM Says Paris Needs More Restrictions as France Enters Third Wave of Infections

French Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Tuesday that additional coronavirus restrictions in the greater Paris region were needed as the country enters a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. French health authorities reported 29,975 new cases nationwide on Tuesday, a 4.5% weekly jump, the sharpest in a month and a half (Reuters).  “It seems to me that the time has come to consider new measures in the greater Paris region,” Castex said in an interview on BFM TV. Catex is meeting with officials today to discuss weekend lockdowns and other measures. French authorities are holding out hope that a vaccination drive can combat the new pandemic wave without having to resort to a nationwide lockdown, but the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine now puts that plan in jeopardy. Catex said he was willing and ready to get the AstraZeneca shot if European health authorities confirmed its safety (Reuters).

Asia and the Pacific

Papua New Guinea Faces Outbreak

Papua New Guinea has largely avoided the coronavirus but is now facing a new outbreak that its prime minister says could infect up to a third of the population (NYT). The island nation has recorded 2,269 coronavirus cases and 26 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the country’s health department. Nearly half of the infections were recorded in the last two weeks, and 97 cases were reported on Sunday. Prime Minister James Marape called the situation “critical” and said that officials would begin to restrict movement, with residents required to stay in their provinces or villages, in hopes of saving the fragile health system from being overwhelmed. The country is expecting to receive 200,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine from Australia and 70,000 doses from India, but the doses will not arrive until at least April. 

China Approves Another Covid-19 Vaccine

China has approved a new Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, bringing the total number of available shots to five (AP). The development of the newest vaccine was lead by the head of its Center for Disease Control, Gao Fu, together with  Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biopharmaceutical Co. Ltd. and the Chinese Academy of Science. The vaccine is a three-dose shot that is spread out with one month between each shot. It can be stored at normal refrigeration temperatures. The AP notes: “There is no publicly available information in peer-reviewed scientific journals about the clinical trial data showing efficacy or safety. A spokesperson for the company said that the data could not be shared at this time but that the company was providing the information to health authorities.”

Americas

Mexico Waits for U.S. Response to Request for Extra Doses 

Mexico is waiting expectantly for a response from the U.S. government to its request for extra shipments of the AstraZeneca vaccine that has yet to be approved for use in the United States. “I’d say we’ve made good progress, but the details, figures, provisions, won’t be known until Friday,” Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard told reporters on Tuesday morning. “We requested as many (AstraZeneca doses) as possible” (Reuters). Reuters reported earlier this week that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador asked U.S. President Joe Biden for a vaccine “loan” during a virtual meeting on March 1. Biden on Tuesday said the United States is in talks with several countries about who could receive any extra doses of COVID-19 vaccines; another one of those countries is Canada. Canadian Procurement Minister Anita Anand said Canada’s ambassador to the United States is in talks with the Biden administration over its supply of unused doses. “On the subject of these additional AstraZeneca doses ... I am in close touch with Ambassador (Kirsten) Hillman, and we together are engaged with the U.S. administration on this very issue,” Anand told CTV on Sunday.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Names 4th Health Minister During Pandemic

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro picked his fourth health minister since the pandemic began: Marcelo Queiroga, the head of the country’s cardiology society, will replace Eduardo Pazuello, an active-duty army general. Pazuello’s two predecessors in the position both left amid disagreements with Bolsonaro, who has continually criticized basic measures to fight the spread of the virus, like social distancing. Queiroga said in a press conference in capital Brasilia on Tuesday that the COVID-19 policy he will implement “is of the Bolsonaro administration, not of the health minister” (AP). “I came to work for Brazil and other ministers of the Bolsonaro administration. The president is very worried about the situation,” said Queiroga, who says he is against any lockdown measures. As the pandemic rages on in the country, some Brazilian cities are taking things into their own hands and implementing restrictive shutdowns in hopes of halting the spread. Brazil has recorded almost 280,000 deaths from the virus and the rate has been increasing lately, with the national average number of deaths per day at more than 1,800.

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Needing to Sell the Covid Bill, the White House Calls in Dr. Jill,” (Politico).

California Governor Newsom: Recall Effort Likely Has Enough Signatures

On Tuesday, California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom acknowledged that an effort to recall him likely has enough signatures to put the recall on the ballot (Politico). Newsom told the hosts of “The View,” that “This one appears to have the requisite signatures.” The recall effort has been fueled in large part by opposition to the pandemic related restrictions imposed by the governor and more general opposition to his handling of the pandemic. On Monday, Newsom began to actively campaign against the expected recall. Politico notes that “he publicly addressed the recall for the first time and rolled out endorsements from a bevy of national elected officials such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker.”

FAA to Extend “Zero Tolerance” Policy As Long As Federal Mask Mandate In Effect

On Monday, the Federal Aviation Administration announced that it plans to maintain its “zero-tolerance” policy for disruptions of flights for as long as the Federal Mask Mandate remains in effect (WaPo). FAA Administrator Steve Dickson stated, “The policy directs our safety inspectors and attorneys to take strong enforcement action against any passenger who disrupts or threatens the safety of a flight, with penalties ranging from fines to jail time.” Indeed, the Washington Post reports, “The Federal Aviation Administration said it is reviewing some 450 cases of passengers behaving badly on airline flights and has opened 20 formal enforcement cases as flight attendants continue to grapple with people refusing to comply with orders to wear masks aboard airplanes.” The policy was initiated on January 13 in the wake of reports of bad behavior by Trump supporters returning from the January 6 riot at the Capitol and was originally slated to expire in March. 

One Third of Troops and Essential Residents But No Prisoners at Guantanamo Bay Fully Vaccinated

Two months into the vaccination campaign at the U.S. military based and detention site at Guantanamo Bay, about a third of the troops deployed there and essential residents have been vaccinated (NYT). However, none of the detainees at the base have been vaccinated. The New York Times reports, “The military began vaccinating residents on Jan. 8 with the Moderna vaccine, starting with military medical personnel assigned to the prison and the hospital at the base. By Feb. 2, everyone who works at the prison, in or out of uniform, had been offered the vaccine, a prison spokesman said last month.” Bonus Read: “Why Guantánamo Detainees Should Have Access to COVID Vaccines Part II: Federal Law and DoD Policies,” (Just Security).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Fed Seen Standing Firm on Interest Rates, Bond Purchases,” (WSJ).

Retail Sales and Manufacturing Slip But a Rebound Still Expected

Retail sales and manufacturing output both slipped in February, although analysts still expect them to rebound and grow over the year, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Retail sales—a measure of purchases at stores, at restaurants and online—fell by 3% in February compared with the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.” However, the Journal notes that “the decline followed robust January sales that were propelled by stimulus payments to households from the December pandemic-relief package. January sales advanced a revised 7.6%, up from the earlier estimate of a 5.3% increase.” Meanwhile manufacturing output was disrupted by weather in February, and the Federal Reserve estimates that industrial production fell by a seasonally adjusted 2.2% compared to January. However, the Journal notes, “despite the February decline, retail sales were up 6% over the last three months compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department.” Despite the decline, many remain optimistic. The Journal points out, “February is typically a quiet month for retail sales, as stores gear up for the spring selling season, including Easter. Economists expect spending to accelerate in the coming months as additional government stimulus is distributed and Covid-19 vaccinations lead to a corresponding decline in cases and pickup in employment levels as businesses open up more fully.”

Hotels See Recovery From Worst Year on Record

After 2020 was by many measures the hotel industry’s worst year on record, hotels are showing signs of recovery, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The past year was by many measures the industry’s worst, marked by employee furloughs, plummeting occupancy rates and the evaporation of most business travel. But this year has already offered glimmers of hope. Hotel share prices are rising, scores of properties are reopening and lodging companies are hiring again.” Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar Group Inc, told the Journal, “The U.S. hotel industry is very slowly regaining solid footing.” However, he added, “We do not expect sustained group demand until herd immunity has been reached.” The signs of recovery come as travel also appears to be picking back up with last Friday having the most travelers by air in the U.S. in a year, as we covered in a prior brief.

Bonus Read: “Anxious Americans to Pay Debt, Taxes with COVID-19 Stimulus Checks,” (Reuters).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “College Admission Season Is Crazier Than Ever. That Could Change Who Gets In,” (WSJ). 

How Gyms are Adjusting as They Reopen

Gyms are beginning to reopen, but as they do they are also adjusting their practices to deal with the risks of the pandemic (WSJ). While every state except South Dakota restricted gyms at the start of the pandemic, now only California maintains a blanket ban on gyms opening. The pandemic hit the gym industry hard. As the Wall Street Journal writes, “The pandemic’s toll has been profound: Nearly half of the 3 million jobs in U.S. health clubs disappeared last year along with more than half of the industry’s revenue. Legions of independent gyms and studios have closed, crippled by state-mandated shutdowns. Several corporate chains, including 24 Hour Fitness Worldwide Inc. and Gold’s Gym International Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection and reorganized or closed.” The Journal notes that many watchers think that after the pandemic, the gym industry will be permanently altered taking the form of a mix of at-home digital and brick and mortar offerings. One analyst, Simeon Siegel, told the Journal, “At-home will become a part of the fitness ecosystem, it’s going to have an outsized platform,” adding, “But for the vast majority of people, the fitness industry will still revolve around bricks-and-mortar.” Evidence suggests many gym goers are interested in such a change. The Journal writes, “A recent survey by consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found that 68% of those who started using an online fitness program during the pandemic said they planned to continue for the long term.”

Bonus Reads: “Air Pollution Plummeted During the Pandemic, Except in Areas With Wildfires,” (WSJ); “The Arts Are Coming Back This Summer. Just Step Outside,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Tara Parker-Pope writes on the importance of grieving for the little things lost during the pandemic (NYT).

Paul Krugman writes on how the pandemic will change cities (NYT).

Robinson Meyer and Alexis C. Madrigal write on why experts kept getting the pandemic wrong (Atlantic).

Cassandra Conrad writes on her family’s experience facing eviction amid the pandemic (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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