Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 38, September/2020, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week’s AiR providing you with an update on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an enjoyable read and extend special greetings to readers in Armenia, Malta and Mali which have celebrated Independence Day this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in Asia

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in Asia 

Asia: Rise in discrimination due to Covid-19 

(nd) A recent survey conducted by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) highlights that the spread of Covid-19 gave rise to discrimination towards vulnerable communities in Asia. The survey asked 5,000 people in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Pakistan, with half of the asked people blaming Chinese people, immigrants and foreigners for the spread of the virus. Also, “illegal foreigners” were blamed, linking it to the arrests of undocumented migrants and refugees made by Malaysian authorities. United Nations warned this policy might deter vulnerable groups from seeking treatment.

Higher education obtained by the interviewees made it only slightly less likely for them to hold the above-mentioned groups responsible in all of the surveyed countries. [Reuters]

Asian financial leaders agree to make 'all policy efforts' to fight pandemic

(jn) Financial leaders from China, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia vowed on Friday to redouble their efforts to help the region recover economically from the coronavirus and to defend a multilateral system of trade and investment. In a joint statement they vowed to “remain vigilant to the continued downside risks [and to take] steps to reduce vulnerabilities to these risks and […] to continue to use all available policy tools to support the sustained recovery.” They also said they remain committed “to uphold an open and rule-based multilateral trade and investment system, and strengthen regional integration and cooperation.”

The statement followed the annual meetings of finance ministers and central bank governors from China, Japan, South Korea and the 10-member ASEAN. The meetings were held via teleconference on the sidelines of the annual gathering of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). [Reuters]

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Freedom House award goes to protest movement

(dql) Along with two other groups from Sudan, the Hong Kong protest movement has been given the US government-funded democracy watchdog Freedom House’s 2020 Freedom Award. The organization cited as reason for the awarding the inspiration to world as “[t]wo million have turned out to stand together in defense of the rights and freedoms they are supposed to enjoy under Hong Kong law.” [Freedom House]

Freedom House has been presenting its annual Freedom Award since 1943. Recent Chinese regime-critical awardees include Uyghur activist Ilham Tohti (2019) and Chinese human rights activist Chen Guancheng (2013).

Speaking at the awarding ceremony, Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activist Nathan Law – in self-exile since the promulgation of the Hong Kong National Security Law – warned that “using engagement and appeasement strategies to engage with China” to bring about a democratization of the country is wishful thinking, with China turning increasingly “authoritarian […] using its sharp and soft power to penetrate the protection of the democracies, and to infiltrate into these countries to discredit and dismantle democracies.” [Hong Kong Free Press]

Adding to concerns over the impact of the national security on judicial independence in Hong Kong, an Australian veteran Judge resigned from the Court of Final Appeal, the city’s top court, which he has served as a non-permanent judge since 2013, citing unspecific reasons linked to the security legislation. The resignation comes two years prior to the official ending of his terms. [Bloomberg]

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Chief Secretary, the city’s no. 2, defended before the international community the national security law at the UN Human Rights Council arguing that the legislation was an effective tool to safeguard law and order and the residents’ freedoms against violent anti-government protests. [South China Morning Post]

China: Xinjiang white paper

(dql) In the wake of mounting international criticism of the Chinese government’s Xinjiang policy [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3], where it is accused of forced labor and the detention of at least 1 million Uyghurs and other ethnic Muslim minorities in internment camps, China’s State Council, the country’s cabinet, has published a white paper on the development of labor rights and workers’ rights in the remote Western province showcasing the government’s measures to promote employment and protect labor rights in this region.

Vocational trainings were among those measures, provided to an average of nearly 1.3 million urban and rural workers every year from 2014 to 2019 as part of a concerted campaign to elevate workers’ education and skills, with around one third of them coming from Southern Xinjiang. Rejecting claims of forced labor. The report accuses “certain international forces” of “ideological bias and prejudiced against China” and of “applying double standards in Xinjiang, criticizing ‘breaches of human rights’ while ignoring the tremendous efforts Xinjiang has made to protect human rights.” [Xinhua]

In a move, echoing the white paper’s rejection of international criticism of its Xinjiang policy and defying US sanctions, the Chinese Communist Party has promoted Xinjiang’s police chief Wang Mingshan to be a member of the party’s standing committee in Xinjiang. Wang was among the officials who were sanctioned by the USA in July over allegations of being implicated in forced labor in the region. His promotion comes shortly after the Trump administration announced that it would block imports of goods from five companies based in Xinjiang over concerns about forced labor. [South China Morning Post 1] [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2] [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

For critical views on the white paper’s numbers arguing that the presented data indicate forced labor rather than disperse the forced labor claims see [South China Morning Post 2].

China reduces crude imports

(dql) China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, has slowed down its import of crude oil in September, after it imported record volumes in May and June, taking advantage of the low oil prices in April. The slow down is an indication that Chinese refiners in China are having problems to find buyers for refined products locally produced.  [Oil Price]

In a related development, Chinese customs announced amendments to regulations to supervise crude oil imports, allowing cargoes to clear customs prior to completion of quality inspections. The new regulations will be effective from 1 October and aim at increasing efficiency of customs clearance in response to key import oil terminals suffering heavy congestion between May and August when record crude volumes arrived in the country. [Investing]

Japan: New Prime Minister elected

(dql) Two days after winning the race for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3], Yoshihide Suga was elected as Japan's new Prime Minister after securing 314 out of 462 votes in the parliamentary elections session last Wednesday. He succeeds Shinzo Abe in this office who resigned because of poor health last month. [AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]

His premiership comes at a time when Japan is struggling to cope with the impact of the economic fallout of the pandemic, with the country’s central bank announcing last week that “Japan’s economy remains in a severe state but has started to pick up as business activity gradually resumes.” The new prime minister vowed to continue Abenomics and to find a balance between fighting a rise in infections and resuming economic and social activity, adding that to keep businesses going and keep jobs remains crucial in his policy. [Mainichi] [Reuters]

For the challenges lying ahead for Suga’s efforts to overcome the pandemic, especially against the background of the lackluster response to Covid-19 of his predecessor, see Hiromi Murakami in [East Asia Forum], who argues that Suga needs to display “badly-needed bold leadership and finally orchestrate a united effort.”

For sketches of the political career of Suga, the son of a farmer, who entered politics in 1996 as a self-made politician to become the longest serving Chief Cabinet Secretary reputed for “ruthlessly controlling the bureaucracy” before assuming the office of Prime Minister, see [The Conversation] and [Kyodo News].

For profiles of the new, 21-member cabinet, which signals continuity as it is filled with many who were already members of the Abe cabinet, see [Kyodo News].

Japan: Tattooing not a medical skill only

(dql) In a landmark decision Japan’s Supreme Court, the country’s top court, has ruled that tattooing is not to be considered medical treatment or an act linked to health care, making it possible for tattoo artists with no medical license to legally tattoo. The court’s decision upholds a verdict of a High Court back in 2018, against which the prosecution had appealed. Under Japan’s Medical Practitioners’ Act of 1948, tattooing people without a medical license is punishable up to almost 10.000 USD in fines or three years imprisonment, or both. [Kyodo News] [Inked]

South Korea: Parties agree on supplementary budget

(dql) Facing a semi-lockdown due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases, legislators from the ruling Democratic Party and the main opposition People Power Party agreed on a 6.7 billion USD supplementary budget to finance the expansion of a free influenza vaccine program and a special child care subsidy program as well as to support taxi businesses that have been ordered to close due to the imposition of social distancing measures. [Korea Herald]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Government extends BNP chairperson and former PM Khaleda Zia’s prison-term suspension

(lm) On September 15, the government extended Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Khaleda Zia's conditional release from jail in two corruption cases by another six months, on condition that she cannot go abroad. Soon thereafter, a BNP senior leader criticized the decision and demanded relaxation of Zia's travel restrictions to allow the former prime minister to seek medical treatment abroad. [Dhaka Tribune] [bdnews24.com] [The Daily Star 1]

The initial suspension had been issued in March, when the government had granted the former prime minister conditional release for six months to seek medical treatment in hospital under the supervision of the prison authorities. By that time, Khaleda had served 25 months out of 17 years of prison sentences on two graft cases. [AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5]

The Supreme Court’s (SC) Appellate Division on September 20 upheld the suspension of trial proceedings in four more cases against Zia. The cases, carrying charges of vandalism, arson and defamation, were filed in 2015. [The Daily Star 2]

India: Delhi Police arrest Indian freelance journalist, allegedly found working for Chinese intelligence

(lm) On September 14, Indian police arrested freelance journalist Rajeev Sharma for allegedly passing sensitive information about several topics, inlcuding India's defense strategy and defense acquisitions, to Chinese intelligence officials for several years. Delhi police said on Saturday that they had seized confidential Defense Ministry documents from Mr. Sharma's residence in New Delhi. Mr. Sharma was arrested under the Official Secrets Act, a colonial-era law. If proven guilty, he may face up to 14 years in prison. [Deutsche Welle] [South China Morning Post]

Mr. Sharma was allegedly responsible for playing information on topics like Indian troop deployments on the Bhutan-India border, defense acquisitions, India's military cooperation with Myanmar, and the Dalai Lama into Chinese officers’ hands. Along with Mr. Sharma, his two associates – a Nepali and a Chinese national, who is linked to the Chinese Intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) – were arrested for allegedly supplying the Indian journalist with money through shell companies in return for passing on sensitive information.

Before leaving active journalism in 2008, Rajeev Sharma had worked for several Indian news organizations and was most recently associated with Vivekananda International Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank. The founding director of the Vivekananda International Foundation is Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor. A webpage linking to Sharma's work for the think tank has been removed.

From 2010 onwards he was writing for the Chinese media platform Global Times. The Chinese state media outlet soon came to express its stand against the arrest of Mr. Sharma. In an op-ed published on September 20, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Global Times, called the arrest a “petty trick”, adding that both the “information release” by the Indian government and the subsequent media coverage of the case were “inappropriate”. [Global Times]

Nepal: Government appoints Khatiwada as special economic advisor to Prime Minister Oli

(lm) Nepal’s government decided on September 14 to appoint former Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada as special economic adviser to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Earlier this month, Mr. Khatiwada, who concomitantly was overseeing the Communication and Information Technology portfolio, had submitted his resignation, forestalling the end of his tenure by two days [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [Khabarhub]

Further, vice-chairman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Bamdev Gautam has been appointed a member of National Assembly (NA), as President Bidhya Devi Bhandari formally endorsed Mr. Gautam’s nomination to the upper house of the parliament on September 17. Earlier, the government had recommended Mr. Gautam to the president, following a decision of the nine-member Secretariat of the NCP [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Kathmandu Post 2]

However, the nomination was challenged in Supreme Court (SC) On September 21 after two advocates had filed a writ petition with the court, seeking to quash Mr. Gautam’s to the upper house. The petitioners also sought an interim order against Mr. Gautam, urging the SC to bar him from working as an NA member till the case is adjudicated by the apex court. Pointing out that Mr. Gautam had lost the last first-past-the-post election to the House of Representatives in 2017, the petitioners argue that the decision to nominate him to the NA was not only against the verdict of the electorate, but, prima facie, was also a manipulation of the constitutional provision and the parliamentary system [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [The Himalayan Times 2]

Pakistan: Court orders arrest of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif

(lm) The Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Tuesday rejected former prime minister and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supreme leader Nawaz Sharif’s plea for exemption from court appearance in a corruption case and issued a non-bailable warrant the day after. Mr. Sharif, who was jailed in a corruption case in 2018, has been residing in London since November last year after a court granted him indefinite bail to seek medical treatment [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [The News International]

Last week, Pakistan’s accountability court had declared him in absentia an absconder over his prolonged absence from the proceedings. Mr. Sharif's lawyer then filed a review petition in the IHC stating that his client’s health condition would not allow him to surrender and appear in the corruption reference. In its verdict, the IHC noted that the defendant’s lawyers had failed to satisfy the bench; therefore, an appeal for exemption from the hearings was rejected. The court further ruled that the federal government should execute the warrants through the Pakistan High Commission in the United Kingdom and ordered to produce him before the court on September 22. The Pakistan High Commission in London received the arrest warrants on Thursday. [Dawn]

Speaking against the backdrop of the IHC’s ruling, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif announced that Mr. Sharif would not return to Pakistan before completion of his medical treatment. [Pakistan Today]

Pakistan joint session of parliament passes 3 FATF-related bills

(lm) As a plenary session of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) prepares to make a final decision on Pakistan’s “grey list” status at a meeting on October 21-23, a joint sitting of Pakistan’s parliament on September 16 passed three crucial FATF-related legislations [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. Islamabad will have to submit a progress report by 30 September. [The Print] [Times of India]

The FATF placed Pakistan on its rating list of countries tagged as prone to illicit financial activity in June 2018 and placed 27 conditions for review for complying. After the groupings member states had last year recommended that Pakistan would stay on the grey list, in June, Islamabad was given the third extension to comply with the 27-point action plan [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. At a virtual meeting on September 15 and 16, the Asia Pacific Joint Group (APJG) of the FATF then reviewed Islamabad’s actions to counter terror-financing and money laundering. [The Hindu]

Although Pakistan is yet to report total compliance with the FATF’s 27-point action plan, China reportedly tried their best during the meeting to support Pakistan’s poor performance. Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing expressed this view during a meeting with the Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue Hafeez Shaikh. When Yao Jing, China’s outgoing ambassador to Pakistan, made a farewell call on the Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue on September 17 – a day after the APJG meeting – he was quoted in an official statement as expressing “his confidence that FATF’s October review will go well for Pakistan”. [Hindustan Times] [The News International]

As part of efforts by Prime Minister Imran Khan to have the country lifted from the FATF rating list, Islamabad also tightened curbs on leaders of the banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), freezing a total of 964 assets and indicting four leaders of the JuD in four more cases. [The News International]

Pakistan: FIR registered against journalist for ‘negative propaganda’ against Pakistan military

(lm) A first information report (FIR) has been registered against a journalist for posting "negative propaganda against the state, Pakistani institutions and the Pakistan Army" on his social media account. The case is the third in a series of complaints to be registered against a journalist within the past week. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) condemned the registration of the case. [Dawn]

Pakistan: Opposition parties protest against role of military in Pakistan’s politics

(lm) At a day-long multiparty meeting on September 20, Pakistani opposition parties cemented their alliance through the announcement of a new coalition, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Following an invitation by current chairman of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, opposition lawmakers rallied against the ruling party and Prime Minister Imran Khan, and even threatened to resign to force fresh elections. [Dawn 1] [The Diplomat]

In their 26-point resolution, the opposition parties expressed their "extreme concern" over the increasing interference of Pakistan’s army in domestic affairs, calling it a "danger to the nation's stability and institutions". Opposition leaders also called for Mr. Khan's resignation and agreed upon a six-point action plan to depose the incumbent government, starting with nationwide rallies in October. [Deutsche Welle]

Former prime minister and current leader of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Nawaz Sharif, broke a nearly yearlong silence from exile in London, offering a direct attack on the prime minister and the country’s powerful military. Claiming that the military had ushered in Prime Minister Imran Khan's government by way of rigged election, he warned that the army had gone from a "state within a state" to a "state above the state." Mr. Sharif, who was jailed in a corruption case in 2018, addressed the meeting through video link from London, where he has been residing since November last year when a court granted him indefinite bail to seek medical treatment. [South China Morning Post]

Earlier, addressing the conference also via video link, former president Asif Ali Zardari delivered the opening speech. In his remarks, Mr. Zardari criticized the government over what he called were "tactics" to suppress the opposition and media. Mr. Zardari, who is also facing charges of corruption, is currently out on bail on account of his health [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Dawn 2]

In a meeting just days before the multiparty conference, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed counselled opposition leaders to refrain from dragging the military into political issues, according to a federal minister. Initially held to discuss the impending changes in the constitutional status of Gilgit-Baltistan [see further below], opposition leaders used the meeting to voice their concerns about other issues, namely the military’s alleged interference in politics and allegations of persecution of its leaders on the pretext of accountability. [Dunya News] [Dawn 3]

Speaking against the backdrop of Sunday’s multiparty conference, Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday dismissed Nawaz Sharif’s reckoning saying that “once again a fugitive sitting in London is maligning the state institutions”. While addressing members of his ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the prime minister also said that the PDM’s conference was an attempt by opposition politicians to malign the state institutions in a bid to cover their financial corruption. [The Express Tribune]

Sri Lanka: Prime Minister appoints committee to study 20th Constitutional Amendment

(lm) After meeting with opposition even from within the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentary group, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa appointed on September 14 a nine-member committee to study the proposed 20th Constitutional Amendment that is aimed at removing the checks and balances on the executive presidency. [The Hindu 1] [The Hindu 2]

The government had published on September 3 a draft version of the 20th Constitutional Amendment that would replace the 19th Amendment introduced by President Rajapaksa`s predecessor, Maithripala Sirisena, in 2015. The announcement followed the ruling Rajapaksa brothers’ election pledge to reverse the preceding 19th Amendment that imposed curbs on presidential powers, while strengthening the role of parliament and independent commissions in order limit the ability of presidents to amass extensive powers. [see e.g. AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2, AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4] [see the full draft here Sri Lanka BRIEF]

Since then, various groups have come out against the proposal [see e.g. Sri Lanka BRIEF]. While the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has vowed to petition the Supreme Court (SC) along with other opposition groups, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) has appointed a special committee to study the draft version of the 20thAmendment. A ruling of the SC on the amendment’s constitutionality is expected soon. [Colombo Gazette 1]

The amendment also found mention in the statement made by Michelle Bachelet, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Speaking at the opening session of the 45th UN Human Rights Council session, Mrs. Bachelet raised concerns over the impact the amendment would have on the independence of key institutions, including the Sri Lanka Human Rights Commission. Responding to the references the following day, Sri Lanka’s representative called the High Commissioner’s comments on the proposed 20th Amendment “unwarranted” and pre-judgmental”. [Colombo Gazette 2] [The Island Online]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodian authorities detain second rapper over criticizing the government in his art 

(jn) Authorities in Cambodia have arrested another rapper on charges of “incitement to commit a felony or cause social unrest” because he released songs suggesting that Prime Minister Hun Sen’s lack of leadership had led to economic decline in the country.

Long Puthera, who penned the track “Wipe Your Tears and Continue Your Journey, Khmer Eyes” was jailed based on Article 495 of Cambodia’s Penal Code only days after a rapper had been arrested on the same grounds for criticizing the Cambodian government’s handling of its border dispute with Vietnam. The incidents are part of a recent wave of arrests that has engendered international criticism and concern, most notably from the UN Special Rapporteur on Cambodia, and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Cambodia to raise minimum wage despite economic impact by inflation and pandemic 

(jn) Cambodia’s Ministry of Labor on Thursday announced a new minimum wage of $192 per month for 2021, an increase of $2 from this year, putting the country on a par with neighbors like Vietnam, but drawing criticism from workers struggling with inflation and amid an economy suffering from the coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the end of the trade privileges under the former “Everything But Arms” scheme of the EU [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3]. [Radio Free Asia] [Asia Times]

Indonesia: Uniform change for private guard

(nd) Following a newly signed regulation based on National Police Chief Regulation No. 4/2020 on private security, civilian security guards (Satpam) are required to wear a brown uniform featuring a rank badge on the shoulder. While the police state this was to honor the profession and the similar color to the police to symbolize the closeness between both, Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation (YLBHI) raised concerns the similarity might lead to abuse of power. Further, it was stated, if the private security groups are awarded partial police powers, the police’s scope of authority is widened. [Jakarta Post]

Indonesia: Deadly incidents in Papua, research paper on independence

(lf/nd) Over the weekend, a Christian pastor and a soldier were shot dead in Papua, in two separate incidents. This comes during rising tensions between Indonesian security forces and separatist groups. The Indonesian army claims that the Papuan armed forces acted more violently in order to gain attention from the UN Generally Assembly (22-29 September) which will be attended by President Jokowi. [Republika in Indonesian]

Papua has been struggling with Independent and separatist movements since it was added to Indonesia after the 1969 referendum. This referendum has been widely criticized by human rights activist as a coerced decision. [Reuters]

With the 2001 Law on Special Autonomy for Papua expiring in November 2021, a research paper came to the conclusion that the likely spike for an independence movement will rather be unsuccessful. Despite growing tensions and escalating violence between the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) and different Papuan groups, Indonesia already expressed its interest in maintaining sovereign control, by announcing to provide special autonomy funds and extend the timeframe of the autonomy laws. While some parallels can be drawn to the successful independence of Timor-Leste, like responding with military forces towards resistance groups and simultaneously investing in the region’s economic development, the historic background is different. 

While Timor-Leste was a colony of Portugal occupied by Indonesia, Papua was always included within the boundaries of the former Dutch East Indies, which renders the argument of Indonesian sovereignty more valid for the international community. Consequently, there is little to no support for the Free Papua Movement (Organisasi Papua Merdeka, OPM), currently limited to a few Pacific Island countries and Senegal, with the United Nations having refused their support.

Papua is rich in resources and mineral deposits, like gold and copper, as well as oil and gas fields, and areas of rainforest for palm oil production. Despite rather small revenue from it, the Grasberg mine is one of the world’s largest gold and copper mines. Additionally, there is a looming fear of Balkanisation and a rise of China’s influence in the region. After the 1999 referendum in East Timor, secessionist movements emerged in the provinces of Aceh, Riau, and Papua. Furthermore, China was the first country to formally establish diplomatic relations with Timor-Leste, whose influence on an independent Papua would be much higher. [Future Directions]

Indonesia: Groups call for a postponement of regional elections

(lf) In Indonesia’s province Medan the North Sumatra National Movement to Safeguard the Ulema Fatwa has filed a lawsuit in order to postpone the upcoming regional elections on December 9 this year. The lawsuit, which is directed against the General Election Commission as well as the Elections Supervisory Agency calls for a postponement, due to a rising number of Covid-19 cases in the region of Medan. The group filed the lawsuit, as the government is unable to prove that the outbreak is under control in the current level 3 red zone regarding the spread and infection risk of Covid-19. [the Jakarta Post].

In addition, religious groups and experts, such as the Indonesians Red Cross, are also urging the General Election commission to postpone the elections calling them a safety hazard amidst the rising Covid-19 in Indonesia. The country has seen an exponential growth of cases in recent months. President Jokowi is currently considering the proposal to postpone the simultaneously happening regional elections. [Worldometers] [UK Reuters] [Kompas in Indonesian]

Malaysia: Youth demanding better political representation

(nd) In the midst of a political crisis and a pandemic-stricken economy, Malaysia’s increasingly frustrated youth starts to voice their concerns over the political leadership. In July, the virtual mock parliament Parliament Digital hosted by a group of Malaysian youth associations successfully advocated youth involvement in politics. After that, young Malaysians voiced their frustration about a lack in political representation virally, and introduced the hashtag #MasaKita (#OurTurn) to utter their wish for a new generation of politics to take over. When 27-year-old Member of Parliament Syed Saddiq in July was interrupted while speaking to senior politicians, it was deemed typical of the disdain the youth’s needs and interests are treated with. Citing Future Forward in Thailand, and En Marche under Emmanuel Macron in France, Saddiq announced a plan to establish a youth-based political party.

In July 2019, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, which will come into force in July 2021, possibly adding 3,8 billion voters to the electoral list by 2023. Possibly being proactive in that respect, Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz announced the 2021 budget will allocate funds to support the youth, especially in terms of education. [The Diplomat 1] [Astro Awani][AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3] [New York Times] [Malay Mail] [The Diplomat 2]

Myanmar: Ethnic military opens Military Academy

(lf) The United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed groups, has opened a military academy within its controlled areas. This comes after last year’s celebration of 30 years of signing the ceasefire agreement between the government and the UWSA. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) condemns the opening and calls for the UWSA to rather focus on the path to peacemaking in Myanmar. Since the ceasefire agreement in 1989, there has been no clash between the Tatmadaw and the UWSA. In recent years, however, the relationship has deteriorated, notably, due to a lack of communication channels between the two groups. 

The UWSA is Myanmar’s biggest and best armed ethnic group, including over 30,000 troops. Since 2008, the Burmese constitution recognizes the UWSA controlled parts of Shan state as self-administrated regions. [The Irrawaddy] [Eleven Myanmar]

Myanmar: Election season update

(lf) The Election Sub-Commission has announced that there will be no postponement of the election on November 9, this year. This comes despite the request of several political parties to postpone the election due to the rising number of Covid-19 cases in the country. [The Irrawaddy]

24 of the 93 political parties has requested for the polls to be pushed back, of which the majority did not win any seats in the 2015 elections and support the military. Most notably, it included the former ruling and military part Union Solidarity and Development Party USDP. Current ruling party National League for Democracy (NDL) holds against it, stating that a postponement would lead to political chaos in the country. [The Irrawaddy ]

Simultaneously, this week the Carter Center has launched an international election supervision campaign. Due to the Covid-19 circumstances many of the teams cannot enter the country due to restrictions for foreigners, forcing the center to hire more national teams. In August a major watchdog, the People’s Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE), and the voluntary elections observers had been denied monitoring the elections. The observation through the Carter will allow for an element of scrutiny over the election after the denial of PACE and the exclusion of Muslim Rohingya candidates previously. The EU however, has cancelled their observation plans of the election due to the state of Covid-19. [Mizzima] [Myanmar Times] [AiR No. 33, August/ 2020, 3].

In Myanmar’s Mon State all election campaigns have been banned by the New ethnic Mon State Party, due to a spike in Covid-19 cases. [Myanmar Times]

Philippines: Restrictions to public officials' finance disclosure, a blow to government transparency

(nd) The Ombudsman office, the independent government body tasked with overseeing the release of officials' statements of assets and liabilities, has effectively ended the practice of freely releasing the information. Under the recently published new guidelines, such statements can only be released if ordered by court or if the Ombudsman office explicitly approves the request.

A former Senator has stated that the right to unrestricted access to public officials' financial statements is made explicit in the Constitution, with further critique of the restrictions coming from the public and media representatives. 

The Ombudsman's move comes amid renewed discussions about the release of President Duterte's statements of assets and liabilities, who despite calls to do so, for the 2018 and 2019 statements, has refused the publishing. To this effect, the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism stated that the non-release of Duterte's form marked the first time in 30 years that a President of the Philippines failed to do so.

The Ombudsman office is an entity founded on President Duterte’s (2016) initiative to fight government corruption by increasing transparency. It facilitates the release of public officials' statements of assets and liabilities to the public. The policy applies only to members of the executive, efforts to extend it to the other two branches of government have not manifested. [Manila Standard] [Philstar] [Newsinfo 1] [Newsinfo 2]

Philippines: IT lawyer Peloton to join poll body

(nd) IT lawyer Michael Braganza Peloton was appointed by president Rodrigo Duterte as commissioner of the Philippines' poll body, the Commission on Elections (Comelec). With the elections coming up in 2022, the Comelec is dominated by Duterte appointees. The only Aquino-appointed commissioner is known dissenter Commissioner Rowena Guanzon. [Rappler]

Philippines: FLAG lawyer, human rights advocates say death penalty has no place in an imperfect justice system

(nd) Former Supreme Court Spokesperson and Free Legal Assistance Group (FLAG) rights lawyer Theodore Te has joined in the critique of President Duterte's advocacy of a re-imposition of the death penalty. Most recently expressed during his state of the nation address in July 2020, Duterte has lobbied continuously for the killing of convicted criminals by hanging since before his presidency. This would not only apply to drug-related crimes, but also, for instance, to crimes like plundering. 

The critique joins those of many other national and international organizations, pointing out that the absolute nature of the death penalty has no place in an "imperfect" justice system. Further, a 2004 FLAG study has shown that those accused will most likely not have the resources needed to conduct a proper legal defense for a death penalty case, as most come from lower-income backgrounds.

Capital punishment was abolished in the Philippines in 2006, amidst wide support from Congress, and the country has signed and ratified the Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights - which commits its members to the abolition of the death penalty. A law proposed by President Duterte had been passed by the House of Representatives, but failed to gain the required majority in the Senate in 2017. The lawmakers' reaction to the recent proposal has once again been described as lackluster, with the Senators' applause rising only after prompting. [Philstar 1] [Philstar 2] [Philstar 3]

Singapore: Chinese tech firms expanding

(nd) Amidst growing tensions with the US, China’s biggest technology firms, Alibaba and Tencent, are expanding their operations in Singapore, giving it the potential for a Chinese tech hub. ByteDance will be investing billions of dollars in the city state. When investing in foreign countries, the regional headquarter acts on behalf on the parent company, covering the actual Chinese investment. In 2020, South East Asia surpassed the EU as China’s largest regional trading partner. [BBC]

Singapore: Interim stay on execution of death sentence

(nd) Following a judicial intervention, Singaporian Syed Suhail Bin Syed Zin’s execution of the death penalty due to drug possessions in 2011 was stopped, pending an appeal to the High Court’s earlier dismissal of a request for a judicial review. In another capital drug case against a Nigerian national, the Singapore Court of Appeal reversed its own convicting decision the same day the decision in favor of Syed was rendered.

The city-state implemented a zero-tolerance policy toward illicit drugs and the law carries a mandatory death sentence for the possession of certain amounts of substances. Dozens of hangings were executed, also against foreigner. Recently, anti-death penalty activists Kisten Han argued, the death penalty does not meet its end of deterring drug use, and promotes are more comprehensive approach to tackle the root of drug use and addiction. [The Diplomat]

Thailand: First Thai member to UN committee

(nd) Seree Nonthasoot has been selected as the first Thai member of a UN committee on economic, social and cultural rights with the aim of forming international agreements on this subject matter. From 2013 to 2018, Dr. Seree worked as the Representative of Thailand to the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) and advised the Ministry of Justice on human rights matters. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Suspension of Democrat MP by Supreme Court

(nd) The Thai Supreme Court suspended Democrat MP Theptai Seanapong’s duties as MP. A rule on his parliamentary status is pending. Theptai and his younger brother were found guilty of vote buying ahead of a mayoral election in 2014. He served as an MP since 2005 and was a representative of the southern municipality of Nakhon Si Thammarat. [Thai PBS]

Thailand: Bayer, US lobbied against glyphosate ban

(nd) Detailed documents obtained by Tucson, Arizona-based environmental group Center for Biological Diversity under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act revealed a cooperation between Bayer and the US government to lobby Thailand to reverse its planned glyphosate ban. Glyphosate is used in Bayer’s controversial weedkiller Roundup, which allegedly is toxic to humans, despite regulators worldwide, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) having determined glyphosate to be safe. The ban was supposed to come into effect December 2019 but was dropped a few days prior. Reuters, who was provided with the documents, could not to determine whether the lobbying efforts were causal for Thailand’s decision.

For the US, an exporter of bulk crops, a ban would have meant not to be able to access the Thai market, which, like other Southeast Asian countries, has grown $ 1 billion dollar in value between 2015 and 2019. [Bangkok Post][Reuters]

Thailand: Protests remain peaceful, commemorative plaque installed and removed over night

(nd) The democracy protests continued at the weekend. Swirling rumors of possible violence did not manifest. PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, who warned earlier about protesters causing a second wave of Covid-19 infections, in a statement made clear he did not mean to scare protesters. 

With the biggest protests since the coup in 2014, the previously uttered demands to reform the monarchy and redraft the constitution were upheld. With emphasizing “the country belongs to the people, not the monarchy”, human rights lawyer Arnon Nampa in his speech echoed again the revolution of 1932, which transformed then Siam from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. The protesters named the marker “Plaque of Khana Ratsadon (People’s Party) 2020”, a reference to Khana Ratsadon group of military and civil leaders who staged this bloodless coup in 1932. As a further symbolic element, protesters placed a commemorative brass plaque at Sanam Luang field, replacing the plaque that disappeared April 2017 from Bangkok’s Royal Plaza and was replaced by one praising the monarchy. The plaque on Monday was already removed. 

The Fine Arts Department announced to file a complaint against protesters for the damage caused by installing the plaque. The protest site of Sanam Luang is an archaeological site, therefore the installation is seen as a violation of the National Museums and Archaeological Sites and Objects Act. Also, Deputy Metropolitan Police Bureau (MPB) commissioner Piya Tawichai said protesters might be charged under the Public Assembly Act by rallying at Sanam Luang without permission, staying beyond the closing time and installing the plaque in the ground. Dependent on the university filing a complaint, protesters could be charged for breaking into the university's main campus and damaging property. Sanam Luang falls under the responsibility of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA). Earlier last week, the Constitution Court accepted a petition whether the protest leaders committed treason by demanding reforms to the monarchy. Treason is punishable by death.

Additionally, Palang Pracharat MP Sira Jenjakha filed a complaint against oppositioning MPs, Mongkolkit Suksintharanont, of the Thai Civilized Party, Peerawit Ruangluedolapark, of the Thai Rak Thai Party and Nattha Boonchai-insawat of the Kao Klai Party, for joining the student protest. Sira produced a picture showing the three MPs raising the three-finger salute of the protesters.

With September 19 marking the anniversary of the coup against the then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, his support basis of Red Shirts, mostly poor rural Thais, appeared in support at the protest site. Despite the peaceful course of the protests, the conflicting reactions reveal further social division. Protests were announced to continue October 14.

Meanwhile, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha stated that the emergency decree in three southern provinces, Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani, will be extended for another three months with Cabinet approval. The extension enables officials to track down and arrest insurgents who aim to undermine national security through violence and terror actions. The southern insurgency has been active for 15 years. [Thai PBS 1] [Khaosad 1] [Khaosad 2] [Thai PBS 2] [Chiangrai Times] [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2] [Thai PBS 3] [Khaosad 3] [Khaosad 4]

UN reveals push for investigating Thai activist’s forced disappearance

(jn) After Thai political activist Wanchalearm Satsakit’s fate has remained unresolved since he was abducted in broad daylight before his home in Phnom Penh on June 4 [AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2, AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3], the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has now released a batch of correspondence with the Cambodian government.

Officials with the Office voiced their concerns that the Cambodian government did not undertake a full investigation into Wanchalearm’s disappearance despite Phnom Penh’s assurances that it had pursued all available leads. In July, in a letter to the Cambodian government they underlined “the importance of urgent action to ascertain his fate and whereabouts” and lamented the lack of new information on the activist’s disappearance, “despite the registration number of the car involved being known and there being multiple witnesses.”

As a red-shirt activist of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship Wanchalearm had sought exile in Cambodia after the military coup in Thailand in 2014, but remained politically active online, prompting Thai authorities to issue a warrant for his arrest in July 2018. [The Diplomat] [Khmer Times]

Thailand: 2021 budget approved

(nd) The House of Representatives approved the Fiscal Year 2021 Budget Bill, now awaiting the Senate’s approval.  It amounts to 3.285 trillion baht and aims at stabilizing economic development. Thailand is battling a recession from the repercussion of Covid-19 on the tourist industry, which is why recent researches forecasted the Thai GDP to fall by 10%. [Pattaya Mail 1] [Pattaya Mail 2] 

Vietnam sentences seven for role in human trafficking scandal 

(jn) Last Monday, a Vietnamese court sentenced seven people to up to seven and a half years in prison for smuggling a woman who later died in a truck together with 38 other people as they were being transported into Britain. The seven defendants were found guilty of “organizing and brokering” illegal immigration by a provincial court in central Vietnam. [AP] [South China Morning Post]

Vietnam: From garment industry to mask production

(jn) The coronavirus pandemic hitting Vietnam as the world’s third largest textile exporting economy especially hard has led to a change in business strategies in the country’s garment industry. After garment and textile exports fell almost 12% in the year through August versus the same period in 2019, the trade ministry has now said Vietnam must become the “world's face mask factory." With less demand for clothing, at least 50 companies are producing surgical masks, or plan to do so, according to the trade ministry. [Nikkei Asian Review]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China: Successful rocket sea launch

(dql) China launched a Long March 11 rocket from an ocean platform in the Yellow Sea last week, successfully sending nine satellites into orbit. It is China’s second ocean-based launch, following a first Long March 11 sea launch in summer 2019. China is only the third country to perform a sea launch, following the U.S. and Russia. [Space]

China-USA diplomatic relations: Beijing accuses Pompeo of smear campaign 

(dql) China has condemned comments of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made at his stop in   Suriname during his last week’s South American tour which also took him to Guyana, Brazil and Columbia, accusing him of “smearing and spreading rumors about China” and urging him to “respect facts and truth, abandon arrogance and prejudice,” after Pompeo warned against Chinese investments saying “it all seems great at the front end and then it all comes falling down when the political costs connected to that becomes clear.” [U.S. News]

China-USA military relations: US navy to be expanded?

(dql) On the heels of the US Department of Defense’s China military power report, according to which China possesses the world’s largest navy with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2], US Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, has announced plans  to expand the US Navy to more than 350 ships from currently 293, with a range of unmanned and autonomous ships, submarines and aircraft. Commenting on the plans, Esper said that the aim was to equip the future fleet with “increased lethality, survivability, capability and capacity to conduct distributed warfare.” [The Guardian]

Meanwhile, the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command strongly warned of China’s “profound advantage” in ballistic missiles and ground-launched cruise missiles leaving large US bases in the Pacific  “outgunned, and underprepared, to defend” against China’s massive stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles, specifying that Guam was a pressing concerning with “billions of dollars in defense capability” on this island and urging to swiftly replace the currently deployed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense by a Aegis Ashore missile defense system. [Breaking Defense]

The warning comes at a time when Sino-US tension over the South China Sea and Taiwan are high running. A fleet of 19 military aircraft from China flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone on Saturday, the second consecutive day of such an incursion, in an apparent signal of opposition to the visit of U.S. Under Secretary of State Keith Krach to Taiwan to attend past Saturday’s memorial service for the late Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. [Taiwan News]

Beijing, furthermore, accused Washington of disguising surveillance aircraft as civilian planes of other countries operating alongside China’s coastlines, referring to an incident early this month in which a US Air Force spy plane disguised as a Malaysian civilian plane entered the South China Sea and patrolled over the disputed Paracel Islands as well as the Taiwan Strait and the Yellow Sea near the Chinese coast. [The EurAsian Times]

For an account on dangers of misperceptions of Chinese military concepts, power and capabilities see David Logan in [War on the Rocks], who refers to three widespread myths about China’s military – China maintaining a vast hidden arsenal of potentially thousands of nuclear warheads; Beijing’s no-first-use policy being a fraud; and China having developed and deployed an array of nuclear war-fighting capabilities – and argues that a believe in these myths risks to exacerbate dangerous Sino-US nuclear dynamics.

China-USA economic relations: TikTok deal

(dql) In the latest development of the Sino-US dispute over a ban of operations of the Chinese video sharing app TikTok in the USA, President Donald Trump this Saturday announced that he had agreed to a deal between TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance and American multinational computer technology corporation Oracle and retail corporation Walmart, expressing his confidence that the future operations of TikTOk “will have nothing to do with China, it’ll be totally secure.”

Following Trump’s approval, the US announced the delay of an order to remove TikTok from Apple and Google’s US app stores from 15 to September 27, providing the firms additional time to finalize the details of the deal.

According to the deal, Oracle will provide the cloud for TikTok and become a minority investor with 12.5% stake, while Walmart has agreed to purchase 7.5% stake. ByteDance will hold the remaining 80%. TikTok’s board will consist exclusively of American citizens, with a security committee led by a person with government security clearances and both the board members and the head of the security committee needing US government approval. [Financial Times] [CNBC]

Analysts agree that the deal falls short of Trump’s demand for an outright sale of TikTok’s US arm. The prospects of estimated 25.000 jobs created and a donation of 5 billion USD by ByteDance for educational purposes are believed to have convinced Trump to agree. [BBC]

In the days ahead of the deal, economic tensions run high Beijing and Washington, with both sides trading mutual threats to sanctions each other country’s companies. On Friday, the Trump administration announced to ban TikTok and WeChat operations in the US, beginning on Sunday. In an immediate response, Beijing decried the move as “bullying” and issued new regulations on Saturday on its proposed (black)list of “unreliable entities,” including penalties such as trade and visa restrictions against foreign firms, organizations and individuals that Beijing believes violate normal market transactions in China, interrupt deals with Chinese firms or take discriminatory measures against Chinese firms. While the regulations went into immediate force, the Chinese authorities did not mention specific companies or persons targeted. [Bloomberg] [The Guardian] [Aljazeera] [Reuters]

In a separate development, American multinational technology company Nvidia’s plan to purchase Arm, a British semiconductor and software design company owned by Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, highlights the ongoing technology dispute between China and the USA. Arm's blueprints for powering chipsets are a critical component for many Chinese smartphone makers and AI firms, so that Arm's ownership by an American company makes a scenario with Washington placing restrictions on its business in China a very likely one. [CNN]

The deal worth 40 billion USD, however, requires regulatory approval from the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and China. A Chinese approval appears more than questionable, with state-run Chinese news outlet being quick to cite Chinese experts voicing that the purchase’s “impact on China's semiconductor industry is not something we want to see in the future.” [Global Times] [Reuters]

In a blow to Trump’s efforts to ban operations of Chinese messaging, social media and mobile payment app WeChat in the USA, a US federal judge has issued an injunction against his executive order against the company, citing concerns about the order violating First Amendment rights. [New York Times]

China-Russia relations: Caucasus drills 2020 kicked off

(dql) Russia on Monday begun its annual ‘Caucasus’ exercises, with participation of military units from Armenia, Belarus, China, Myanmar and Pakistan, while representatives from Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Sri Lanka take part as observers. The exercises, lasting until 26 September, involve around 80,000 troops and hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers, fighter jets and a flotilla of warships, with a focus on defensive tactics, encirclement and battlefield control and command. [TASS] [rfi]

China’s participation is the latest sign in increasingly close military Sino-Russia ties. India, which originally confirmed its participation, meanwhile, pulled out citing the pandemic and consequent difficulties in the exercise as reason for the withdrawal. [The Statesman] [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]

For an account on the current status and future prospects of the Chinese-Russian relations, see the interview in [The Diplomat] with Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, who summarizes the basis of the strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow in the formula “never against each other; not necessarily always with each other.”

China and Mongolia agree on deepening ties and Health Silk Road

(dql/ef) Just weeks after China replaced Mongolian language books in Inner Mongolian schools, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Mongolian President Battulga Khaltmaa, Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa and Foreign Minister Enkhtaivan Nyamtseren. The protests that ensued after the curriculum change in Inner Mongolian schools drew vast attention in Mongolia and led to protests in front of the Government Palace on the first day of Wang’s visit. However, official meeting summaries did not indicate that the topic of Inner Mongolia came up. Rather, it is stated that Wang visited Mongolia in order to strengthen cooperation in the fight against Covid-19, to extend cooperation on economic and social development, and to ensure long-term healthy and stable development of China-Mongolia ties. [The Diplomat (€)]

Meanwhile, Wang also announced last week that China and Mongolia along with Russia, Kazakstan, and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to jointly build a Health Silk Road, adding that China will provide the participating countries with support in the purchase of anti-pandemic supplies, expertise training, experience sharing and cooperation in drug development, and accelerate the building of communication mechanisms with concerned parties on pandemic information. [The Star]

Indonesia protests Chinese coast guard ship entering its exclusive economic zone

(dql) Indonesia last week issued a formal protest to the Chinese embassy in Jakarta about a Chinese coast guard ship entering and patrolling in its exclusive economic zone off the Natuna Islands, stressing its rejection of China’s so-called Nine-Dash Line, which Beijing uses to demarcate its claims in the South China Sea. [Straits Times] [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

China’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, insisted coast guard vessel conducted “normal patrol duties in waters under Chinese jurisdiction.” [news.com.au]

China-Canada relations: Ottawa stops trade negotiations

(dql) China-Canada continue to spiral downwards after Canada announced to unilaterally halt negotiations on a free trade agreement with China with Canadian Foreign Minister saying: "I do not see the conditions being present now for these discussions to continue at this time. The China of 2020 is not the China of 2016."

Following efforts on Canadian side to deepen relations between Ottawa and Beijing after Justin Trudeau took office in 2015, Sino-Canadian ties begun decline after Canadian authorities detained Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in 2018 at the request of the US, which was followed by the arrests of two Canadian nationals on charges of espionage in China. With Canada's condemnation of the Beijing’s imposed Hong Kong national security law along with a suspension of some bilateral agreements with the former British colony –including an extradition treaty – Sino-Canadian ties further strained. [Economic Times]

Sweden not to renew space antenna contracts with China

(dql) Sweden Space Corporation (SSC), Sweden’s state-owned space company, announced that it would not renew its contracts with China, which provides China access to strategic space tracking stations in Sweden, Chile and Australia, when the respective contracts expire.

SSC cited changes in geopolitics as reason for its move which comes at a time when tensions between the USA and China grow over the latter’s advancing space capabilities – including Beijing’s increasing sophistication of its Beidou navigation network to rival the US GPS –, while Australia’s diplomatic and trade ties with Beijing have been fracturing. [Reuters]

China-Vatican relations: Bishop appointment deal to be renewed

(dql) China and the Vatican are set to renew an agreement following Pope Francis’ approval. The agreement was concluded in 2018 whose content has never been disclosed, but whose core provisions are believed to revolve around giving both sides a say in appointing Catholic bishops in China. [Aljazeera] [AiR 4/9/2018]

China is home to around 12 million Catholics who are split between a government-run association, whose clergy are chosen by the Chinese Communist Party, and an unofficial underground church loyal to the Vatican.

In an earlier move, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the Vatican that it “endangers its moral authority” in case of a deal renewal, adding that "[n]o regime suppresses faith on a larger scale than the Chinese Communist Party." [Church Militant]

North Korea-USA relations: Washington concerned about Pyongyang-Teheran nuclear weapons cooperation

(dql) In response to a reporter’s question on whether the USA had seen evidence of Tehran and Pyongyang resuming cooperation on the development of long-range missile, US envoy for Iran and Venezuela0 Elliott Abrams said that Washington is concerned about such a cooperation, adding that the USA would “do whatever in can to prevent it. [Korea Joong Ang Daily]

The statement comes shortly after US President Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear weapons program, claiming it is enforcing a UN arms embargo and demanding that the European Union follows suit. The move was rejected by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as well as by overwhelming majority of members in the 15-nation U.N. Security Council. [Politico]

Taiwan-USA relations: China displaying air power amid deepening Washington-Taipei relations

(ef) China sent nearly forty fighter jets and bombers into the Taiwan Strait on Friday and Saturday, with the Chinese Ministry of National Defense commenting on the move that “those who play with fire are bound to get burned”, thereby warning the US and Taiwan to not escalate the tension between China and the US as well as between Taiwan and China any further.

Beijing’s move came during the visit of US Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment, Keith Krach on the occasion the memorial service for late President Lee, which continues accelerated efforts of the Trump administration in the recent weeks and months to strengthen ties with Taiwan amid high running tension with China on multiple fronts. Just last month, Taiwan and the USA announced tighter economic relations in the areas of health care, technology, and energy, with Taipei hoping to develop these relations into a free-trade agreement with the US.

Last week, the US Ambassador to the United Nations in a historic first met with the director of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, Taiwan’s de-facto embassy, on Wednesday. Never before has a US Ambassador to the UN held a meeting with a top Taiwan official. According to the Ambassador, she aimed to fulfill the wishes of President Trump who seeks to strengthen and deepen bilateral relations with Taiwan. [The Diplomat (€)]

In a latest development, Washington is reportedly pushing for the sale of seven large packages of weapons to Taiwan that would include long-rang missiles able to reach distant Chinese targets. Those missiles could be used with F-16 fighter jets which will increase in numbers in Taiwan as another arms deal including sixty-six F-16’s was approved in 2019. The proposal of seven arms sales at once is unprecedented as Washington usually calibrates arms sales carefully in order to minimize tensions with Beijing. [New York Times (€) 1]  [New York Times (€) 2] [Reuters]

China’s aerial drills in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea have increased in frequency within the last couple of months as China feels noticeably more provoked by Taiwan’s actions perceived as moves to reinstate Taiwan’s independence from China. Especially, the Taiwanese support for Hong Kong after the enactment of the National Security Act on Hong Kong has been a sore spot for Beijing. However, the frequency of flights during the past week is unprecedented and marks a significant escalation in cross-strait tensions. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the entries were legal as “Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory, and there is no so-called median line”. [New York Times 3] [Focus Taiwan 1] [CNN]

The Chinese nationalist tabloid Global Times, meanwhile, cited mainland analysts calling the flights are not a warning, but rather “a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover”. Even though, neither China nor Taiwan has stated that they would fire the first shot, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced that it reserves the right to act in self-defense if the situation escalates further. Hence, Taiwanese forces on the line would be enabled to fire if China showed clear signs of hostility. Furthermore, the MND stated that the Taiwanese military had a sufficient number of precision missiles to defend Taiwan against an attack at the present moment.

The Pentagon harshly condemned the aerial intrusion and stated that Beijing was the reason for ramped up tensions in the strait. [Global Times CN] [Taiwan News] [South China Morning Post] [Focus Taiwan 2]

Somaliland endorses US Taiwan Relations Act

(dql) Somaliland’s parliament has endorsed the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979 which provides the legal basis for substantive relations between the USA and Taiwan and enshrines Washington’s commitment to supporting Taipei in maintaining its self-defense capability. [Focus Taiwan]

The move comes shortly after Somaliland, which declared itself a state in 1991 after a civil war in Somalia, but remains until today internationally un-recognized, opened a representative office earlier this month, in response to the opening of the Taiwanese representative office in August. [France 24]

Mongolia-Russia relations: Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to be deepened

(dql) Mongolian and Russian Foreign Ministers Nyamtseren Enkhtaivan and Sergey Lavrov met Monday in Moscow to discuss issues on bilateral ties, international and regional cooperation. Both sides agreed to further expand and develop their countries’ Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. [Aki Press]

India provides Maldives US$250 million loan to boost coronavirus-battered economy

(lm) In a further bid to counter China ’s growing financial footprint in South Asia, India on Sunday provided a soft loan of $250 million to the government of the Maldives to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest in a string of support measures for the Indian Ocean archipelago, the budgetary support was provided in response to a request by Maldives President Ibrahim Solih to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for assistance. [Hindustan Times]

The financial aid, first announced during a virtual meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries on August 13, will be raised through a sale of treasury bonds issued by the Maldives government to the State Bank of India (SBI), with 10 years given for repayment, according India’s High Commission in the Maldives. [South China Morning Post]

During the meeting, India had also pledged $500 million towards funding the largest civilian infrastructure in the Maldives to help the island nation connect its capital with the neighboring islands of Villingili, Gulhifahu and Thilafushi [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3].

Further, a direct cargo ferry service between India and the Maldives –first promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Maldives in June last year [see AiR (2/6/2019)] – was formally launched on Monday. [United News of India]

India raises FDI cap for defense sector, but remains committed to “Make in India” policy

(lm) After reviewing the existing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy in the defense sector, the government has raised the FDI cap from 49 percent to 74 percent under the automatic route. According to the current FDI policy, 100 percent overseas investments are permitted in the defense industry, with investment exceeding 49 percent requiring government approval. However, FDI in the country’s defense sector will henceforth be subject to scrutiny and require security clearance. [The Times of India] [Business Insider India]

A total of 70 defense contracts were signed during the last financial year, with 38 contracts signed with Indian vendors and 32 contracts were inked with foreign vendors, Minister of State for Defense Shripad Naik told Parliament on Wednesday. The minister also said that during the current financial year up to July, a total of 10 contracts have been signed with Indian vendors and six with foreign vendors.

The previous day, the Defense Ministry cancelled two armament import contracts worth $2.5 billion and elected to go for the “Make in India” initiative to support the domestic defense manufacturing sector. Following a special meeting, the ministry scrapped plans in the final stages to procure close quarter carbines and Self-Propelled Air Defense Gun Missile Systems (SPAD-GMS) from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and South Korea respectively. [The Economic Times]

On September 21, UAE-based weapons manufacturer Caracal, which had emerged as the lowest bidder in 2018 to supply nearly 95,000 assault rifles to the Indian Army, offered to fully manufacture the rifles in-country, in alignment with the 'Make in India' initiative. The manufacturer had written to the Defense Ministry earlier this month seeking clarity on the project that had originally been earmarked as Fast Track Procurement (FTP) but been delayed by almost two years. A UAE government delegation also met with senior officials at the Indian mission in Abu Dhabi. [Financial Express]

India: Navy boosts maritime capacities with stealth frigates

(lm) The Indian Ministry of Defense has announced the start of construction on the Indian Navy’s third ship under the P17A-class stealth frigates. Indian firms Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) and Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE) are responsible for the construction of in total seven P17A frigates, four of which are being constructed by MDL and three by GRSE. The Indian Navy is expecting to have all seven stealth frigates in service by 2025-27. [Navy Recognition] [Naval Technology]

In 2015, the Indian Navy had introduced its "Indian Naval Indigenisation Plan (INIP) 2015-2030," which specified the need for locally developed, advanced systems in order for the Navy to be the net-centric security provider in the Indian Ocean. Following a visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India, in October 2018 a government-to-government contract was signed between India and the United Shipbuilding Corporation of Russia for the supply of two stealth frigates. A separate contract was signed in 2019 for the construction of two similar stealth frigates in India. The ships are expected to be delivered by the end of 2022. [AiR (5/10/2018)]

Still, the Navy so far has been unsuccessful in constructing an efficient maritime-industrial complex, according to Abhijit Singh and Manoj Joshi. In their paper, they argue that in spite of considerable effort, India’s naval shipbuilding program continues to suffer from systemic deficits that cannot be addressed through ad hoc policy interventions and short-term solutions. [Observer Research Foundation]

India: ISIS “most active” in southern states; northern rebel groups see influx of personnel and weapons

(lm) Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Minister of State for Home Affairs G. Kishan Reddy said that the Sunni jihadists' group Islamic State (ISIS) and its various manifestations have spread base in at least 12 Indian states in recent years. Further elaborating on the subject, the minister said that ISIS is “most active” in southern states, including Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and is using various internet based social media platforms to propagate its ideology. Moreover, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has registered at least 17 cases related to the presence of ISIS in Telangana, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and has so far arrested 122 suspects. [India TV]

Following raids in Kerala and West Bengal, Indian anti-terrorism investigators on Saturday arrested nine suspected militants, who were allegedly planning attacks in several locations, including New Delhi. The NIA claims that the men have ties to a "Pakistan-sponsored" module of al-Qaeda and have been "radicalized" by "al-Qaeda terrorists" on social media. [Deutsche Welle] [The New Indian Express]

Moreover, Indian national security agencies have raised concerns to the government over an observed influx of weapons and personnel to insurgent groups active along the Indo-Myanmar border. In particular young people, left jobless during the lockdown, are reported to be joining banned rebel groups, such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), in droves. Adding to this are reports of a large consignment of China-made weapons reaching the hands of secessionist Myanmar-based Arakan Army (AA), which seeks an independent homeland in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. As much of these weapons are finding their way to some of the dormant militant groups in India’s Northeast, security agencies expect insurgent groups to gather along the Indo-Myanmar Border in order to execute attacks against Indian security forces. [India Post]

India, Pakistan: Islamabad rejects New Delhi’s demand for Queen’s counsel in Jadhav case

(lm) Pakistan on September 18 categorically rejected India’s request to allow a Queen’s Counsel or an Indian lawyer to represent former Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav, who currently sits on death row in Pakistan [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. Earlier this month, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) directed the federal government to give India another chance to appoint a lawyer to represent Jadhav and adjourned hearing until October 3 [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. Since then, India kept insisting that it should be allowed to select a lawyer of its choice, but the Pakistan government says only a lawyer allowed to practice in the country can be appointed as Jadhav’s counsel. [Hindustan Times 1]

In keeping with the 2019 ruling from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Pakistan’s National Assembly on Monday extended an ordinance to allow Mr. Jadhav to appeal against his conviction and sentencing in court. The “International Court of Justice (Review and Reconsideration) Ordinance” was first promulgated in May and was set to expire on September 17 [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]. [Hindustan Times 2]

India, China: With neither side backing down, troops prepare for the winter

(lm) Thousands of Indian and Chinese troops are still locked in an impasse across the mountain passes of the Ladakh region and the banks of the glacial lake Pangong Tso, with neither side backing down. After foreign ministers from both countries had pledged last week to de-escalate tensions [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3], the top commanders of the Chinese and Indian armies met on September 21 at Moldo, on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The details of the 14-hour long diplomatic-military talks are yet to be announced. [South China Morning Post 1] South China Morning Post 2

Chinese troops were laying a network of fiber optic cables along the lake’s southern bank, two Indian officials said on September 16, suggesting Beijing was digging in for the long haul [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. Indian intelligence agencies noted similar cables that would provide forward troops with secure lines of communication to bases in the rear to the north of the lake about a month ago. China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday denied the allegations, but said that both countries would remain in communication through diplomatic and military channels. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China] [The Straits Times 1]

Against this backdrop, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh put the blame firmly on China while addressing Parliament on September 15, saying that Beijing had flouted bilateral agreements and mutually agreed norms that had hitherto allowed both sides to keep the peace despite having diverging perceptions of the LAC. Further elaborating on the issue, Mr. Singh said that several friction areas have been created along the LAC since China began to amass troops in April and tried to disrupt the traditional patrolling pattern of Indian troops the following month [see AiR No. 21, May/2020, 4]. [The Economic Times] [South China Morning Post 3]

The minister also announced that the government has doubled the budget for border infrastructure development along the LAC. As winter is expected to arrive by the end of the month, the military has also ramped up efforts to move equipment and supplies such as winter clothing and mountaineering gear to forward locations along the LAC as troops prepare to dig in for the winter. [Hindustan Times 1]

Noteworthy, India is set to open what is believed to be the world’s longest high-altitude tunnel, which will reduce journey time to the country’s remote disputed border region in Ladakh province. In June, it became known that New Delhi was looking to complete the construction of an all-weather artery that provides a reduction in time of travel for its security forces moving to the northernmost corner of Indian territory. [The Straits Times 2] [Hindustan Times 2] [Times of India]

Pakistan, India: Islamabad demands inquiry into killing of 3 Kashmiris

(lm) Pakistan on Saturday called for a "transparent judicial inquiry, under international scrutiny” into the “extra-judicial" killing of three Kashmiris in the Indian-administered Kashmir, this July. The previous day, in a rare admission of wrongdoing, the Indian army announced it had launched disciplinary proceedings against an unspecified number of soldiers after an inquiry into the killing of three youths had found its soldiers had exceeded their powers. [Dawn]

In July, the army said it had killed three "unidentified terrorists" in an “cordon and search” operation against militants in the Shopian district of the disputed Himalayan region. The family members of deceased laborers had alleged that the Indian army killed the trio in a staged gunfight and passed them off as militants. [Anadolu Agency] 

Pakistan, India: Islamabad rejects nomination of India’s new charge d’affaires in Pakistan

(lm) Pakistan on Sunday denied visa to Indian diplomat Jayant Khobragade, who was designated as the new acting head of India’s mission in Islamabad, saying the proposed officer’s seniority would not be commensurate with Pakistan’s decision of downgrading the diplomatic relations. The proposal was first made in June, just days before India asked Pakistan to halve the strength of its High Commission in New Delhi within seven days [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. [Hindustan Times] [Dawn]

In August 2019, Pakistan downgraded the diplomatic relationship in response to India’s decision to unilaterally abrogate the special status hitherto enjoyed by its side of the state of Kashmir. Since then, the Indian and Pakistani high commissions in the two national capitals have been headed by the deputy chiefs of mission. 

Pakistan: Islamabad to make Gilgit Baltistan its 5th province, says federal minister

(lm) Notwithstanding strong protest from India, Pakistan has decided to elevate the status of its Gilgit-Baltistan region to that of a full-fledged province, entailing all constitutional rights and adequate recognition in all constitutional entities, notably the National Assembly and the Senate, according to a federal minister. The minister also said that Prime Minister Imran Khan is soon to visit the new province to make a formal announcement. [Hindustan Times]

Administrated by Pakistan since 1947, Gilgit-Baltistan is constituting the northern portion of the greater Kashmir region, which is being referred to by the United Nations as "Pakistan administered Kashmir". The territory also borders Indian-administered union territories Jammu and Kashmir (union territory) and Ladakh to the south and is separated from it by the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border between India and Pakistan. Elevating the status of Gilgit-Baltistan represents a new spin to Pakistan's geo-strategy, as the region also hosts the Moqpondass, a place selected for one of the proposed nine priority Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). [CPEC] [The Straits Times]

New Delhi last year unilaterally abrogated the special status hitherto enjoyed by its side of the state of Kashmir, breaking it into two union territories – one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu and Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh. In October 2019, India then issued a map in which it laid claim on the disputed area in its entirety, including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan [see AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1, AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. This August - a day before both countries observed the first anniversary of the revocation of the region’s constitutional autonomy - Pakistan’s government also unveiled a new political map, laying claim to all of Jammu and Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]

An emergency meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, which was called earlier on Friday, had to be postponed after leaders from opposition parties Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) threatened to boycott it. [The News International] [SAMAA]

Pakistan: Four terrorists killed during operation in Balochistan

(lm) Four terrorists were killed by security forces in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province, according to the Pakistan Army. In a separate incident, at least two soldiers were killed on Saturday in a shoot-out with militants during an operation near the country's northwestern border with neighboring Afghanistan. The attack is the latest one in a string of ambushes on security forces following the killing of a key militant commander along with his three accomplices in North Waziristan earlier this month. [Deccan Herald] [Anadolu Agency]

Once dubbed the heartland of militancy, the restive North Waziristan region is one of seven former semi-autonomous tribal regions in Pakistan where the army has conducted a series of operations since 2014 to eliminate Pakistan’s leading Taliban group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Last month, the group announced its reunification with three formerly estranged factions [see No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Pakistan to open up defense sector for private players, hopes for Turkish investment

(lm) In an effort to promote the country’s military-industrial complex, Pakistan is reportedly planning to open up its defense industry for private sector participants. To that effect, Islamabad is planning new policies for defense production and defense offset, and is further re-organizing its prominent state-owned defense enterprises to give them greater independent control. [Janes]

To initially help Islamabad in defense production, Turkey is reportedly inking a deal with Pakistan's Ordinance Factory on urgent note to procure an "unspecified quantity" of rifles. Further, Pakistan, alongside with Bangladesh and Pakistan will be sending military delegations to participate in this year’s Defense Port Turkey exhibition, which is set for October 26 until 28. [Hurriyet Daily News] [South Asia Monitor]

Bilateral defense and security cooperation between the countries were initially boosted with significant defense deals in 2018, elevating Turkey to become Pakistan’s second-biggest arms supplier after China [see also AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2]. In October 2018, the Pakistan Navy commissioned a fleet tanker, built in collaboration with Turkish defense company STM in the southern port city of Karachi. The same year, Ankara won a multibillion-dollar tender to supply four corvettes to the Pakistan Navy and 30 Turkish-made T129 ATAK multirole combat helicopters. In addition, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) agreed to upgrade 41 F-16 fighter jets for the Pakistani Air Force, including avionics and structural modernization of the aircraft. [AiR No. 40, October/2019, 1, AiR (1/6/2018), see also AiR (4/9/2018)] [IISS]

Accompanied by a large delegation of ministers, investors and business representatives, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Islamabad in mid-February to participate in the sixth round of the Pakistan–Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Turkish official sources said one of the primary purposes of the visit was to “further synchronize military relations”. [AL Monitor]

Pakistan: Army contingent participates in opening ceremony of Kavkaz 2020 in Russia

(lm) On Saturday, a contingent of the Pakistan armed forces participated in the opening ceremony of the Russian-led military exercise Kavkaz 2020 in Astrakhan in southern Russia. From September 21 to 26, roughly 150,000 military personnel are expected to participate in the country’s largest international military drill in many years. [The Express Tribune]

Beyond Russia and fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, additional foreign participants reportedly will include Mongolia, Syria, Iran, Egypt, Belarus, Turkey, Armenia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar. [The Jamestown Foundation] [The EurAsian Times]

India, initially scheduled to take part with 200 troops, ultimately dropped out on the excuse that Pakistan and China were included. In what observers believed to be a compensation for New Delhi’s withdrawal from the annual capstone strategic-operational exercise, the navies of the countries held joint maneuvers near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands earlier this month [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2].

Philippines: Lawsuit against China over South China Sea

(nd) Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio will legally support the team suing Chinese president Xi Jinping for crimes against humanity for illegal incursions in the South China Sea. The lawsuit was filed by Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and former Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales in March 2019 before the International Criminal Court (ICC) over near permanent destruction in the West Philippine Sea claimed by the Philippines as its exclusive economic zone. The ICC stated the case might not be within its jurisdiction. However, del Rosario emphasized the described act were not only within their exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but also within Filipino territory. Additionally, they cited the ramming and sinking of a Filipino fishing boat in June 2019 that occurred within their EEZ. [Daily Express] 

Philippines: The complex sentiments about US armed presence 

(nd) Built originally by the Spanish colonial empire, the Subic Bay base, together with Clark Airfield, was home to US navy ships and personnel for much of the 20th century. Amidst growing sentiments about a colonial-like dependency of the U.S., which had ruled the Philippines as a colony until 1946, the Philippine Senate, in 1991, rejected a proposed extension of the lease that had allowed the US to station troops.

Today, the event is marked by a monument, celebrating the stern message of independence the 12 Senators' votes had sent. Yet, the actual effect was short-lived, as the U.S. and Philippines re-opened the door to a US deployment with the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement and joint military exercises. This was augmented, in response to Chinese pressure in the South China Sea, by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement in 2014. Following the agreement, US ships are once again berthed in Subic Bay base.

The renewed US presence continues to cause ressentiment in Filipinos, recently displayed in the discussions around President Duterte's pardon of a US Marine, convicted of murdering a transgender woman near Subic Bay base. Duterte himself has, nevertheless also expressed criticism of past US actions in the Philippines, and the government's foreign policy towards China is decidedly independent from the US line. [The Diplomat 1] [The Diplomat 2] [Subic]

Laos: Germany supplies scientific equipment to the MRC to monitor Mekong dam impacts 

(py) On 15 September, Germany has supplied equipment, worth around $600,000, to help monitor the impacts of Lao’s Xayaburi and Don Sahong dams. The support was part of the German government’s assistance to the MRC’s pilot program on Joint Environment Monitoring of Mekong Mainstream Hydropower Projects (JEM). Reportedly, the German government has already subsidized around 6.45 million euros to the Mekong River Commission (MRC) which aims to promote and coordinate sustainable management and development of water and related sources for countries in the Mekong River basin. [The Phnom Penh Post] [MRC 1] Mr. Jens Lütkenherm, German Ambassador to Lao PDR, expressed his concerns over the potential environmental and socio-economic backlashes brought about by the two dams. [Laotian times] The constructions of both dams have faced criticisms from concern groups in neighboring countries. In its latest report, the MRC reported that the border area between Lao PDR and Thailand would be hit the hardest in this year’s drought. [MRC 2] 

Laotian-Chinese expressway Vientiane – Vang Vieng is set to open ahead of schedule

(py) On the occasion of the 45th National Day (2 December), the Vientiane-Vang Vieng expressway is set to open ahead of its scheduled completion in 2021. The expressway is the first section of the planned Vientiane-Boten expressway which is jointly planned by the Lao government and Chinese developers, a state construction enterprise from Yunnan province to connect the Capital, Vientiane with the northern province of Luang Namtha which borders China. [Laotian times]

The agreement for Lao’s first expressway between China Yunnan Construction and Investment Holding Group (“YCIH”) and the Lao Planning and Investment Ministry was signed in Vientiane on 4 April 2018. [Xinhuanet]

Laos considers easing immigration policy for China and Vietnam 

(py) According to Lao Phattana Daily, a local news source, the fast-track immigration policy refers to bilateral legislation between Vietnam and China that would allow certain privileges such as a waiver for the 14-day quarantine for individuals including diplomatic personnel, technical experts and foreign labor for special projects.  [Laotian Times]  

Though Laos has been having the pandemic under control with the last confirmed case reported on 14 August and a total of 22 confirmed cases since the breakout, many fear a second wave could be on the verge with illegal entries to the country. [WHO] 

Myanmar, South Korea to strengthen economic ties

(lf) Korea and Myanmar have agreed to strengthen economic cooperation in order to help Myanmar economic fallout because of the Pandemic situation in the country. The two countries agreed to strengthen ties primarily in the sectors of trade, investments and energy. 

South Korea is one of Myanmar’s most important trading partners. Currently, Korea is building a friendship bridge connecting the city center of Yangon with its townships across the Yangon river [The Irrawaddy]

Bangladesh increasingly worried over troops at its border with Myanmar

(lf) As Burmese troops gather along the border to Bangladesh, in its most eastern state Rakhine, Bangladesh has become increasingly concerned about the situation. The Burmese army increased their troops in the regions, due to an alleged increase action from both the Arakan Army (AA) (which consist of ethnic Rakhine) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). Bangladesh has voiced its concerns and called for a de-escalation of the situation towards Myanmar’s ambassador. The AA and the Burmese Army (Tatmadaw) are in an ongoing military conflict. 

Both AA and ARSA have been declared terrorist organisations by the government. A deadly attack of ARSA against Burmese security outpost in 2017, fuelled in the clearance operation led by the Tatmadaw, which forced 730,000 Rohingya Refugees into Bangladesh, which currently host more than 1 million Rohingya refugees. [Dhaka Tribune] [Irrawaddy]

Cambodia: US sanctions Chinese-owned company for human rights abuses, corruption 

(jn) Last Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department issued sanctions against the Tianjin-based and state-owned Chinese Union Development Group (UDG) under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act for developing the Dara Sakor tourism zone in Koh Kong Province at the Cambodian coast, in particular for “seizure and demolition of local Cambodians’ land”. UDG is also designated for falsely registering as a Cambodian-owned entity to facilitate the land deal and for pressing ahead with the development even though some of the land extends into a near National Park. 

The Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control explicitly faults UDG for advancing China’s One Belt One Road Initiative (BRI) that like in many cases would disproportionately serve China’s interests but has forced locals from their land and devastated the environment. It claims that UDG, aided by already sanctioned Cambodian general Kun Kim, used military force to threaten and forcibly expel villagers living on the land in question. UDG had ignored both pleas by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNOHCHR) and orders by the Cambodian government to stop its militarized landgrab. 

Additionally, the Treasury voiced its concern that China could set up a military installation under the guise of the Dara Sakor project which could undermine stability and peace in the region. 

In 2008, UDG was granted a 99-year lease with the Cambodian government for 36.000 hectares on which the UDG then launched the $3.8 billion Dara Sakor project. As the Department also points out, the size of the grant is in violation of Cambodian law which limits land concessions to 10.000 hectares. [U.S. Treasury Department Press Release]

In an immediate response, both Cambodia and China have criticized and questioned the sanctions notification and its reasoning. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Analysts and China-skeptics have long harbored doubts about the real intentions for developing Dara Sakor, because a military facility on the area could potentially upset the whole geopolitical balance of the region. The new port at Koh Kong will be a deep-water port and large enough to potentially host Chinese frigates and destroyers, as well as other vessels of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). According to experts, the Chinese consider commercial ports as a foot in the door for their navy, i.e. any deep-water commercial port has a potential dual purpose for receiving naval ships. A Koh Kong naval base would help China significantly shore up its blue-water capabilities to project power, and would be instrumental in protecting China’s sea lines of communication and maritime trade routes through the Malacca straits.

That is why Cambodia and its coastline have emerged as a strategic frontline amid the trade war and geopolitical tensions between the US and China given Beijing’s billion-dollar infrastructure investments there that amount to $34.1 billion since 2013. Phnom Penh has become the ASEAN-member that is China’s closest partner with implications both for the harmony within ASEAN and the South China Sea dispute. If the Koh Kong project indeed turns out to be a front for a Chinese naval base, it would put Cambodia firmly in China’s strategic camp at a time when US-China tensions are ratcheting in nearby waters.

Only in June of this year and July last year, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen dismissed reports as “fake news” according to which Cambodia had granted China exclusive access to a naval base in violation of its own constitutional provisions. The latest reports, however, did not concern the Dara Sakor project, but a second compound in Ream located further east at the Cambodian coastline [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2]. [The Diplomat 1] [Asia Times] [South China Morning Post]

UDG is not only under suspicion to be China’s toehold in Cambodia considering the shady circumstances of how the land deal come to fruition but also because satellite images have given away the construction of a 3.4 kilometer runway that is much longer than necessary for a tourist resort and similar to other Chinese military air fields elsewhere. US Vice President Mike Pence even penned a letter to Hun Sen cautioning against the project and Chinese overreach. 

Notably, the new sanctions slapped on UDG for the Koh Kong development touch on a potential military use but focus on human rights abuses and detail the (illegal) circumstances of the acquisition. This begs the question why the Koh Kong-site has come into the sanctions-crosshairs of the US at this very moment given that the development with all its surrounding problems has been ongoing since 2008 and that UDG is by far not the only Chinese-backed company that harnesses such controversial tactics. Furthermore, the Ream naval base has seen greater scrutiny in recent years for possibly being a front for a future Chinese military installation. Still, the UDG remains under credible suspicion of paving the way for a Chinese military base which is only one of many controversial aspects of the development. It is also likely that UDG is ripe fruit for a sanctions regime with which Washington aims to rein in Beijing’s quest for dominance in the region.

A Chinese naval base in Cambodia would also further encircle Vietnam in its geopolitical standoff with China over the South China Sea, and could even rouse Thailand that has been standing more aloof from the South China conflict. [The Diplomat 2]

German and Vietnamese leaders talked on anniversary of 45 years of diplomatic ties between the countries

(jn) German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc had a phone conversation on Tuesday to mark the 45th year of diplomatic ties between their two countries during which Ms. Merkel highlighted the new Indo-Pacific strategy of the German government. She said she hopes that Vietnam will serve as a bridge to connect Germany with the Indo-Pacific and together with Mr. Xuan Phuc stressed the importance of settling disputes in the South China Sea by peaceful means and on the basis of international law. [Vietnam News]

Vietnamese Prime Minister meets South Korean Foreign Minister 

(jn) In a bilateral meeting with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on Thursday, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc urged his counterpart that the Republic of Korea (RoK) reduce or remove binding conditions for development aid, and said he hoped that the RoK increase the reception of Vietnamese workers and pay more attention to the Vietnamese community in their country. Both leaders also spoke about stepping up efforts to achieve the goal of raising the bilateral trade volume to $100 billion. Vietnam has already reopened commercial routes and flight routes to a number of countries and regions, including South Korea. 

Ms. Kang is the first foreign minister to visit Vietnam since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. [Vietnam News 1] [Vietnam News 2]

Vietnam indignant over US embassy’s editing of country map

(jn) Vietnam has reaffirmed its claim over the disputed Spratly and Paracel island chains in the South China Sea, after the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi edited the islands out of a map of Vietnam that it had posted on its Facebook page for a recent diplomatic event. The foreign ministry said that Vietnam has always considered the Paracel and Spratly Islands as inseparable parts of the Vietnamese territory and has said so in many international forums. The island chains with their resource-rich waters are a controversial subject in the South China Sea dispute between China and Vietnam.

After having first uploaded a map of Vietnam that also showed the island groups in a Facebook post on September 9 commemorating the start of the 53rd ASEAN Foreign Minister’s Meeting that day, the embassy later edited the post and replaced the original map with a version without the islands.

Officially, the US does not recognize the unilateral sovereignty of any claimant country over the Spratly and Paracel Islands – a position that was also reiterated in a statement by the embassy. [Radio Free Asia] [VN Express]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events

24 September 2020 @ 4:00-6.30 pm ICT, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG), Thailand

AiR Online Panel Discussion Series on Thailand after the Lockdown II: The Financial and Economic Outlook

This online seminar will address and discuss the current status and the future course of Thailand’s economy after the lockdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

More information are available at [CPG]

23 September 2020 @ 4:00 pm BST, Progressive Policy Think Tank, UK

The big ideas debate with Ed Miliband MP: Building a better, fairer and greener future

This event will assess unique, bid ideas for policies which would radically reduce our emissions whilst also addressing wider issues of economic and social injustice.

Details are available at [IPPR].

23 September 2020 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, USA

Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: A Conversation with Senator Marco Rubio

This webinar will host Senator Marco Rubio who will address the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy more broadly and the future of the Republic party.

Details are available at [Hudson].

23 September 2020 @ 10:00 am UTC+1, Fundación Alternativas, Spain

“Inequality and the top 10% in Europe”

This event marks the launch of a 4-country study on the financial position and attitudes towards inequality amongst the top 10% of income earners in the United Kingdom, Sweden, Spain and Ireland.

For more information, please visit [Fundación Alternativas]

23 September 2020 @ 09:30 am UTC+9, East Asia Institute, Republic of Korea

EAI Online Seminar

"2020 Burmese General Election Prospects”

During the fourth online seminar of the [Democratic Cooperation] series, panelists will discuss stories of Burmese democratic transition from political, economic and social perspectives.

For more information, please visit [EAI]

23 September 2020 @ 9:00 a.m. UTC-4, Hudson Institute, USA

Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: A Conversation with Senator Marco Rubio

This event will discuss U.S. relations with China, Latin America and Iran. 

See [Hudson Institute] for additional information.

23 September 2020 @ 3:00-4:30 p.m. UTC+2, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Africa’s role in regulating autonomous weapon systems

This event explores whether autonomous weapons systems shall be used and whether new regulations are necessary.

See [Institute for Security Studies] for more information.

23 September 2020 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. UTC+1, European Policy Centre, Belgium

What is the impact of COVID-19 on privacy and data protection in the EU?

This event will discuss the tensions between public health measures and upholding fundamental values such as data protection and the right to privacy.

See European Policy Centre for more information.

23 September 2020 @ 4:00-5:30 pm UTC+1., European Policy Centre, Belgium

Hard choices ahead – Heading for a no-deal Brexit?

This event will discuss what lies ahead for the EU-UK partnership from the point of view of different European countries, including the British, Central European and French perspectives, as well as that of the EU.

See European Policy Centre for more information.

24 September 2020 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. UTC+1, European Policy Centre, Belgium

Cohesion policy 2021-2027 – What’s new?

This event will discuss will draw some initial conclusions about cohesion policy - the main investment vehicle of the EU aimed at reducing regional disparities across Member States - over the past 5 years and its main accomplishments.

See [European Policy Centre] for more information.

24 September 2020 @ 10:00 am EDT, Asia Society, USA

United Arab Emirates: Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar bin Mohammed Gargash

The Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute will host the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates for a discussion with the President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Kevin Rudd AC.

Please find the details here: [Asia Society].

24 September 2020 @ 5:00 pm AEST, Lowy Institute, Australia

Coming undone – Australia and China’s fractured ties

This virtual round table discusses the weaking relations between Australia and China with people who have recently been advised by the Australian government to leave China.

If you are interested in joining the event, visit [Lowy] further information.

24 September 2020 @ 8:00 pm EDT, Asia Society, USA

Republic of Korea: Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha

The Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute will host Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea for a discussion on Korea’s response to COVID-19 and how the pandemic as changed the global landscape for the country.

Please find registration details here: [Asia Society].

24 September 2020 @ 05:30 pm UTC+2, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy

“Web and science: castaways in the infodemic”

As part of the 2020 Sustainable Development Festival, this event will look at how media outlets, by disseminating imperfect information and discordant news, risk confusing and leading public opinion away from science.

For more information, please visit [CMCC]

Thursday 24 September 2020 @ 10:00–11:00 am UTC-4, Asia Society Policy Institute, USA

United Arab Emirates: Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar bin Mohammed Gargash

This event features a discussion between H.E. Anwar bin Mohammed Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the UAE and Asia Society Policy Institute President Kevin Rudd.

See [Asia Society Policy Institute] for additional information.

Thursday 24 September 2020 @ 8:00–9:00 pm UTC-4, Asia Society Policy Institute, USA

Republic of Korea: Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha

In this event, H.E. Kang Kyung-wha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea will discuss Korea's response to COVID-19 and how the pandemic has changed the global landscape for the country with Daniel Russel.

See Asia Society Policy Institute for additional information.

24 September 2020 @ 3:00–3:30 pm UTC+5:30, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, India

Webinar Module III on Global and Indian Best Practices of Climate Action in Cities

This event gives examples of global and Indian best practices of climate action in cities.

See [Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations] for more information.

24 September 2020 @ 7:00–8:30 pm UTC+5:30, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, India

Big Picture 2050: Launching Industry led Near Zero Emissions initiative

Leading market players from Indian industries have come together for the first time to pledge for near zero emissions by 2050. 

See [Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations] for more information. 

25 September 2020 @ 10:30 am UTC+3, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russia

ASEAN Academic Days in MGIMO 2020: online-lecture “Russia in Southeast Asia”

Speaker Bilahari Kausikan will share his views on the current dynamics and trends in Southeast Asia as well as on the future prospects of the ASEAN-Russia strategic partnership.

The registration is open until September 24, 2020 [6 pm UTC+3] and can be accessed via [MGIMO]

25 September 2020 @ 3:00 pm UTC+2, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, South Africa

Radical Disenchantment’ with Fadi Bardawil

Discussion about the monograph Revolution and Disenchantment: Arab Marxism and the Binds of Emancipation.

See Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa for more information.

28 September 2020 @ 3:00 pm CEST, Bruegel, Belgium

From Leading Field to Player: Europe’s Strategic Autonomy as Our Generation’s Goal

This webcast will discuss Europe’s strategic autonomy with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [Bruegel].

28 September 2020 @ 3:00-4:30 pm UTC+2, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Will women, peace and security remain a SA foreign policy priority after 2020?

This event will discuss the government’s position and provide international perspectives on how the country can continue to advance African and global policy and practice on women, peace and security.

See [Institute for Security Studies] for more information.

28 September 2020 @ 9:30-10:30 am UTC+1, European Policy Centre, Belgium

EPC Post-Summit Briefing/Weekly Update

This event will cover a number of issues and questions related to the outcome of the Special European Council on 24-25 September.

See [European Policy Centre] for more information.

28 September 2020 @ 2:00-3:30 pm UTC+1, European Policy Centre, Belgium

Addressing dementia in migrant communities – From diagnosis to EU policy actions

At this event, speakers will address current knowledge gaps around access to care for people from a migration background in Europe.

See [European Policy Centre] for more information.

29 September 2020 @ 2:00-3:00 pm UTC+1, European Policy Centre, Belgium

Communicating the crisis and recovery: How COVID-19 changed the EU’s communication game

The panel will discuss the repercussions of Covid-19 on response within EU as well as on communication between member states and the handling of information.

See [European Policy Centre] for more information.

29 September 2020 @ 7:00–8:30 pm UTC+5:30, Indian Council for Research on International Economic, India

Introduction to Green Building Profession - Skill Training and Management

The webinar seeks to introduce into the topic of green building. 

See Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations for more information. 

29 September 2020 @ 4:00–5:30 pm UTC+5:30, Indian Council for Research on International Economic, India

Clean fuel for cooking: Solution to achieve better air quality

This event features a Round-Table with experts to discuss prospective solutions for clean cooking fuels and equipment in the residential sector. 

See [Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations] for more information. 

29 September 2020 @ 3:00-4:30 pm UTC+2, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Will Magufuli win a second term?

This event will discuss the Tanzanian elections October 28 and whether incumbent President John Magufuli will be reelected.

See [Institute for Security Studies] for more information.

Recent and upcoming book releases

Sibichen K Mathew, You Just Got Cheated: Understanding White-Collar Crime, Sage Publications, 400 pages, August 15, 2020, reviewed in [Times of India].

Michael Wood, The Story of China: The Epic History of a World Power from the Middle Kingdom to Mao and the China Dream, St. Martin’s, November 2020, 384 pages. [Macmillan]

May Holdsworth, and Christopher Munn, Crime, Justice and Punishment in Colonial Hong Kong: Central Police Station, Central Magistracy and Victoria Goal, Hong Kong University Press, June 2020, 340 pages, with a review at [Asian Review of Books].

Charlotte Schallie, After the Holocaust: Human Rights and Genocide Education in the Approaching Post- witness Era, University of Regina Press, October  2020, 320 pages. [Booktopia]

Kelly A Hammond, China’ Muslims and Japan Empire: Centering  Islam in World War II, University of North Carolina Press, November 2020, 314 pages. [Bokus]

Calls

Socrates Journal is pleased to call for papers for the Journal Section- Political Science. This journal appears half-yearly in English. Paper submissions and proposals are accepted on a continuous basis throughout the year 2020 and there is no deadline for submission. Unpublished manuscripts and research papers from the domain of Political Science are invited for review and consideration of publication in our journal's two regular issues: June and December 2020. For more detail, see [Socrates Journal].

Review of History and Political Science is pleased to call for papers for International Journal of Gender & Woman’s Studies Vol. 8, No. 2 to be published on October 31, 2020. The journal welcomes contributions drawn from all fields of political science including political theory, political behavior, public policy and international relations. For submission deadline is September 30, 2020 and applicants may sent the submission to editor@airpd.org. For more details, see [RHPS].

The Asian Institute of Research is pleased to call for papers for its Journal of Social and Political Sciences Vol 3, No. 4 to be published on December 30, 2020. The journal covers scholarly articles in the fields of Social and Political Sciences. The journal aims to facilitate scholarly work on recent theoretical and practical aspects of Social and Political Sciences. Academics, Policymakers, and researchers are invited to submit their manuscript not later than December 20, 2020. For more details, see [Asian].

Humanities and Social Science Online invites submissions for the Handbook of Asian Intelligence Cultures. The handbook will provide concise chapters about each Asian country’s intelligence services. In particular, it focuses on how a country’s internal and external environmental factors shape the intelligence culture and how intelligence shapes the government, society and culture. Potential contributors should send a CV and abstract (250-500 words) about the country they wish to write on that addresses the above themes with a proposed outline. In addition to the abstract, include a brief bibliography of at least five potential sources. Please send these three items to Ryan Shaffer at AsianIntelHandbook@gmail.com before October 1, 2020. For more detail, see [networks.h-net]

Jobs & positions

The Faculty of Law of Oxford University seeks to appoint a Departmental Lecturer to provide teaching support for the Law and Finance teaching team, especially the course Law and Economics of Corporate Transactions ('LECT'). The post is full time and fixed term for 12 months. The closing date for applications is midday on Friday 23 October 2020. Please arrange for two references to be sent to recruitment@law.ox.ac.uk by the closing date. For details, please visit [Oxford University].

The Institute of Political Science of Leiden University’s Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences invites applicants for the position of Assistant Professor of European Politics for a two year temporary position. The appointment includes teaching introductory and advanced courses on the European Union, supervising MSc and BSc theses, conducting scholarly research and participating in the intellectual and administrative life of the Institute (i.e., department). The successful candidate would be specialized in the study of the European Union and in research methods appropriate to this field. Candidates submit online their application no later than 21 October 2020 via the blue button of the University’s application system. Find more information at [Leiden University].

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