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February 4, 2021 - Brief Issue 148

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University

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Top Headlines

Younger Adults May Have Driven Bulk of Covid-19 Surges, Says Study (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Cases in U.S. Drop to Pre-Thanksgiving Levels; Experts Warn Against Social Gatherings (Health & Science)

CDC Director Says Teachers Don’t Need Covid-19 Vaccines for Schools to Reopen Safely; Many Teachers Feel Risks Are Too High (Health & Science)

Latest U.S. Census Bureau Survey Finds Around Half of American Adults Say They Will “Definitely” Get a Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

More Than Half of New Delhi Residents Have Had Coronavirus (Around the World)

WHO Experts Visit Lab in Wuhan (Around the World)

U.K. Launches Trial to See if Vaccines Can be Mixed and Matched (Around the World)

Germany Agrees to More Aid for Families, People on Benefits (Around the World)

Polish Businesses Reopen in Spite of Ban (Around the World)

Iran to Receive Russian Sputnik Vaccine Doses Today (Around the World)

Biden Tells Democrats He’s Willing to Compromise on Checks, But Not Amount; Latest Proposal Suggests Limiting to Those Making $50,000 or Under (U.S. Government & Politics)

Treasury: U.S. Faces Uncertain Borrowing Needs Due to Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Homicides Rise 30% in 34 U.S. Cities (U.S. Society)

Vocational Schools Adjust to the Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 26,557,034 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 450,797 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 313,620,645 tests and distributed 55,943,800 vaccine doses, with 33,878,254 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 104,432,815 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,269,817 deaths. At least 58,049,996 people have recovered from the virus.

Younger Adults May Have Driven Bulk of Covid-19 Surges, Says Study

A study published in Science suggests that adults aged 20-49 may have had an outsize role in Covid-19 surges in the U.S. this summer (CIDRAP). Researchers from Imperial College London analyzed age-delineated cell phone data of over 10 million U.S. residents and linked the data with age-specific Covid-19 mortality rates. The researchers found that, despite fluctuations in their proportions of cases, Covid-19 mortality rates remained the same in the different age groups.

Adults aged 35-49 were the strongest contributors to transmission. By August 2020, this group accounted for 41.1% of all virus transmission, compared to 2.1% in ages 0-9, 4.0% in ages 10-19, 34.7% in ages 20-34, 15.3% in ages 50-64, 2.5% in ages 65-79 and 0.3% in ages 80 and older. By October 2020, the 20-49 age group was the only group with a reproduction number – the number of secondary infections generated by a primary case – greater than 1. A reproduction number above 1 means an outbreak is growing, while numbers below 1 indicate that it is shrinking.

Adults aged 20-49 are among those with the largest number of adult contacts. People in this age group are more likely to work outside the home and may be more inclined to engage in social activities with people outside their immediate households. The authors of this study recommend that additional interventions, such as transmission-blocking vaccines, could be employed to help bring the pandemic back under control.

Covid-19 Cases in U.S. Drop to Pre-Thanksgiving Levels; Experts Warn Against Social Gatherings

After months of steeply rising Covid-19 cases, resulting in record hospitalizations and mortality, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Wednesday that cases in the United States have returned to pre-Thanksgiving levels (CIDRAP). The U.S. is now averaging about 144,000 cases per day, which officials warn is still very high. Measures like masking and avoiding gatherings are still essential for mitigating the risks of Covid-19. Top experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, cautioned against attending in-person Super Bowl parties with people from other households this coming Sunday.

CDC Director Says Teachers Don’t Need Covid-19 Vaccines for Schools to Reopen Safely; Many Teachers Feel Risks Are Too High

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said on Wednesday that “vaccinations of teachers is not a prerequisite for safely reopening schools” (CNBC). White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki later said that Dr. Walensky’s comment did not reflect official CDC guidelines. Recent studies, including several from the CDC, have shown that schools are relatively low-risk environments for coronavirus spread when adequate safety protocols are in place. Schools around the U.S. have been under increasing pressure to reopen in recent months, and President Biden has prioritized school reopenings with a proposed $170 billion budget to support safety protocols.

Still, many teachers feel their concerns are going unheard by officials (CNN). Some are concerned that their districts are not yet prepared to implement adequate safety measures, including reduced class sizes. Some cite colleagues’ deaths and worry that they could be next. United Teachers, the Los Angeles teachers union, asserts that teacher vaccinations should be a prerequisite for a return to the classroom (LA Times). Although California Governor Gavin Newsom has said that teachers should be prioritized for vaccination, he also says that schools in the state can open safely even if not all teachers have had the opportunity to be vaccinated. Nationwide, about half of U.S. states have added teachers to the priority list for vaccination (NYT). Bonus Read: “Kids Don’t Need Covid-19 Vaccines to Return to School,” (STAT).

Latest U.S. Census Bureau Survey Finds Around Half of American Adults Say They Will “Definitely” Get a Covid-19 Vaccine

A new survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that 51% of American adults who had not yet received the Covid-19 vaccine “definitely” planned to get one once it became available to them (WSJ). Twenty-six percent said they probably would, while 14% said they probably would not, and 10% said they definitely would not get vaccinated. Older adults tended to express more certainty that they would get vaccinated, while Black and Hispanic participants expressed more reluctance than White and Asian participants. The most common reasons cited for uncertainty about vaccine uptake were concerns over side effects, wanting to wait longer to see if the vaccine is safe and wanting to reserve doses for those who need vaccines more.

Experts estimate that at least 70-80% of the population must be vaccinated for the pandemic to come to an end. The survey has prompted some concerns that these “herd immunity” levels will not be met if people in the undecided categories opt out of vaccination. However, surveys indicate that confidence in the Covid-19 vaccines has been increasing in recent months. The Biden administration is planning to organize community-based vaccination campaigns in areas where vaccine hesitancy is high.

Vaccine Supply Chains Unprepared for Pfizer’s Sixth Dose

The drug company Pfizer, which produced the first Covid-19 vaccine to be approved in the U.S., initially planned for its vials to contain five vaccine doses. Each vial contained a small amount of “overfill,” which is standard in producing injectables and safeguards against waste. However, faced with lags in production, researchers at Pfizer began testing different combinations of “low-dead-space” syringes and needles to try to extract a sixth dose from the vials. After months of testing, they succeeded and received approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to list its vials as containing six doses. That additional dose was allowed to be applied to vaccine orders.

However, The Washington Post reports, downstream systems were unprepared to extract the essential sixth dose. Many health systems did not have the right syringe/needle combinations on hand, and supply chains were unable to meet the demand. Dr. Jesse Goodman, a former chief scientist at the FDA and the director of Georgetown University’s Center on Medical Product Access, Safety and Stewardship, said the situation reflects a lack of coordination between federal officials and vaccine suppliers. Although medical systems are working to obtain the syringes needed to extract all six doses from each vial, there is concern about potential long-term shortages. BD, the largest syringe manufacturer in the world, is ramping up production of low-dead-space syringes in order to meet the demand, though BD says the process will likely take until the summer.

AstraZeneca Developers Say Their Vaccine May Prevent Coronavirus Transmission; Experts Say Results Are Incomplete

According to a study by Oxford University, the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine may reduce transmission of the virus (WaPo, AP). Although several vaccines have been developed that provide robust protection against the effects of Covid-19, researchers are uncertain whether the vaccines also prevent viral transmission. This uncertainty means it is unknown whether those who are vaccinated could still pose a risk to others who have not yet received the vaccine. As a result, experts recommend that vaccinated individuals continue to follow all public safety guidelines.

In the study, volunteers who received two doses of the vaccine were found to be 54% less likely to have a lab-confirmed infection, regardless of whether they had symptoms. In addition to the findings on transmission, the researchers found that a single dose of the vaccine was 76% effective against symptomatic illness. The finding lends support to Britain’s strategy of delaying second doses in order to prioritize first doses for more people.

Outside experts have been critical of the study’s claim that the vaccine prevents transmission (STAT). Carlos del Rio, an infectious disease expert at Emory University School of Medicine, said that “the study showed a decrease in [viral] shedding, not transmission.” Although viral “shedding” – the release of virus from cells in an infected individual – is an essential part of transmission, researchers say it is a leap to say the study proves the vaccine reduces transmission. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said that while there were “too many, in my view, moving variables to make too much of one single result,” the trend was “consistent and in the right direction.”

Bonus Read: “Some States Are Racing Ahead of Others With Their Covid Vaccine Rollouts. Their Secret? Keeping it Simple,” (WaPo).

Around the World

Asia 

More Than Half of New Delhi Residents Have Had Coronavirus

A new antibody survey in the Indian capital New Delhi estimates that more than half of the city’s 20 million residents have had Covid-19 (NYT). In January, the city’s health department found antibodies showing immune response to the coronavirus in 56% of 28,000 people who provided blood samples. Styendar Jain, the city’s health minister, told reporters that the city was “moving toward herd immunity.” A citywide survey conducted in October found that just over a quarter of the population could have been infected. Health officials caution that social distancing and hygiene measures are still important to fighting the spread of the virus as the country undertakes one of the world’s largest inoculation campaigns; more than four million health care workers have already received their first doses. 

WHO Experts Visit Lab in Wuhan 

A team of experts from the World Health Organization investigating the origins of the pandemic visited a research center in Wuhan, China that has been a focal point for theories about the origins of the coronavirus (NYT). The WHO scientists met staff members at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a state-of-the-art facility known for its work on coronaviruses (Reuters). Last year, the Trump administration promoted an unsubstantiated theory that the virus leaked from the government-run facility, but many senior American officials said in private that there is no evidence of that happening. Peter Daszak, one of the experts on the WHO team, described the conversation on Wednesday at the Wuhan institute as candid. “Key questions asked & answered,” he wrote on Twitter.

Europe

U.K. Launches Trial to See if Vaccines Can be Mixed and Matched

On Thursday, Britain launched a trial to see if the immune response to doses of the Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer Inc and AstraZeneca combined into a two-shot schedule generated the same immunity response as using doses from a single manufacturer (Reuters). The researchers behind the trial said that they want to understand if combining the different types of coronavirus vaccines could provide greater flexibility in inoculation campaigns. Researchers will measure antibody and T-cell responses and look for any unexpected side effects. Around 800 participants are expected to take part in the trial and initial data is expected to be generated around June. Other vaccines will be added to the trial once they approved and rolled out. 

Germany Agrees to More Aid for Families, People on Benefits

Germany’s governing parties have agreed on an additional aid package for families with children and people on benefits, as well as tax help for companies, in an attempt to keep Europe’s biggest economy on course. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition agreed late Wednesday to give a one-time 150-euro ($180) bonus to families that receive child benefit, following a 300-euro bonus last year, news agency dpa reported. There also will be a 150-euro payment for people on welfare benefits (AP). Companies that have suffered losses due to the pandemic will be able to offset those losses against profits from the previous years in their tax returns. Sales tax on food in restaurants and cafes will also be decreased, from 10% down to 7% until the end of next year. Germany is currently in lockdown, with all businesses closed except for takeout and delivery and schools in remote learning and daycares closed. Next week, Merkel and state governors will decide what, if any, restrictions will be loosened when the current lockdown expires on Feb. 14. 

Polish Businesses Reopen in Spite of Ban

Hundreds of businesses in Poland, including gyms, bars, and restaurants, have reopened in spite of the country’s coronavirus restrictions as part of a movement that started online with #OtwieraMY (meaning #WeAreOpening) (NYT). Detailed maps are now available that show hundreds of businesses, and even ski slopes, that claim to be open, risking hefty fines in defiance of government orders. The Polish Fitness Federation told one local news outlet that almost 1,600 sports facilities had reopened at the start of February. On Monday, the Polish government allowed museums, art galleries, and stores to reopen, but told sports facilities, hotels, bars, and restaurants that they must remain closed until at least mid-February. 

Middle East

Iran to Receive Russian Sputnik Vaccine Doses Today

Iran is receiving its first batch of Covid-19 vaccine today from Russia. Iran’s announcement on Tuesday that it would be receiving doses of the Sputnik V vaccine coincided with a study published in The Lancet medical journal that showed the vaccine was safe and effective (NYT). Iran’s supreme leader banned American- and British-made vaccines, saying they could not be trusted, and the Iranian health ministry canceled a donation of Pfizer doses. The safety of the Russian vaccine has been debated publicly by senior Iranian health officials because it had not been approved by the World Health Organization or any Western medical agency. Just last week, 98 physicians from Iran’s largest union of medical workers urged President Hassan Rouhani not to purchase the “unapproved and unsafe” Sputnik vaccine. Bonus Read: “Moscow Gains New Leverage With Coronavirus Vaccine Breakthrough,” (Politico).

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Tells Democrats He’s Willing to Compromise on Checks, But Not Amount; Latest Proposal Suggests Limiting to Those Making $50,000 or Under

On Wednesday during a call with House Democrats, President Biden said that he would be willing to compromise on who would receive checks under a proposed Covid relief bill but not on the checks themselves and the $1,400 amount (Politico). Politico reports, “President Joe Biden said he's open to refining key elements of his nearly $2 trillion coronavirus package during a call with House Democrats on Wednesday, but stressed the urgency of delivering the massive relief bill quickly to the pandemic-stricken nation. Biden told the House Democratic Caucus that he was willing to compromise on who will be eligible for the next round stimulus checks — but remained firm on the size of the $1,400 check, according to multiple sources on the call.” Biden commented, “I am not going to start by breaking a promise to the American people.” The Washington Post reports, “The latest proposal Democrats are considering would send $1,400 payments to individuals earning $50,000 or less and $2,800 to married couples earning $100,000 or less” (WaPo). The comments come after a group of Republican Senators pitched a slimmer proposal that would provide checks of a lesser amount and to fewer people that they said would gain bipartisan support and as Senate Democrats move forward on passing a Covid relief bill on party lines through reconciliation. In addition, during the Georgia Senate runoffs that resulted in Democratic control of the Senate, Democrats ran on providing Americans $2,000 checks while Biden at the time was more lukewarm on the idea. Bonus Read: “Senate Democrats Reach Power-Sharing Deal With Republicans,” (WSJ).

U.S. Economy

Treasury: U.S. Faces Uncertain Borrowing Needs Due to Pandemic

On Wednesday the U.S. Treasury Department announced changes to its regular debt insurance schedule and said that the United States’ borrowing needs remain uncertain as a result of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The agency intends to maintain the size of nominal coupon auction sizes this quarter, after ramping up auction sizes last year to accommodate a surge in government spending to combat the pandemic and cushion the U.S. economy.” “Treasury believes that these changes have created sufficient capacity to address near-term projected borrowing needs,” commented Brian Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance.

U.S. Society

Homicides Rise 30% in 34 U.S. Cities

According to a survey of 34 U.S. cities published on Monday, homicide rates across the U.S. rose 30% in 2020 (WaPo). The Washington Post notes, “Of the 34 cities surveyed by the National Commission on Covid-19 and Criminal Justice, a project of the D.C.-based Council on Criminal Justice, only four — Raleigh, N.C.; Baltimore; St. Petersburg, Fla.; and Virginia Beach — saw declines in 2020.” Meanwhile Milwaukee, WI and Louisville, KY saw rises of 95% and 92%, respectively. The survey’s authors point to the pandemic and the nationwide protest wave as likely factors behind the surge. The Washington Post reports, “The pandemic limited proactive anti-crime strategies by both police and social workers, commission director Thomas Abt said, and reduced focus on urban hot spots known to be large sources of violence. And the drastic uptick in violence beginning in June, immediately after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, paralleled a similar uptick in 2016 after protests against police use of force erupted, said criminologist Richard Rosenfeld of the University of Missouri at St. Louis.”

Vocational Schools Adjust to the Pandemic

While schools generally have been forced to adjust to the pandemic, vocational schools have faced a number of specific challenges in adapting to teach hands-on skills in an era of social distancing (WSJ). As the Wall Street Journal reports, “It’s hard to learn to restrain a cat for an X-ray. It’s even harder by video, said Morgan Sylvester, who is studying veterinary radiology remotely this year.” Ms. Sylvester, a 17-year-old high school student at Montachusett Regional Vocational Technical School told the Journal, “In the past, we’ve been given stuffed animals to help show us how to position different animals, but it’s hard to learn remotely.” The Journal writes, “Most vocational high school programs are partly remote and partly in-person this school year, and roughly one-third are fully remote, disrupting training. Educators predict a decrease in certifications for medical, nursing and dental assistants and technicians as well as for people aspiring to work in cosmetology, food safety, drafting and design, and construction.” The disruptions raise concern about a pathway for many into well paying jobs and associates degrees.

Bonus Reads: “The Designer of Kamala Harris’s Inauguration Outfit Crafts a Strategy for the Pandemic,” (WSJ); “In the Ozarks, the Pandemic Threatens a Fragile Musical Tradition,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

The Washington Post provides answers to frequently asked questions about the pandemic and vaccine distribution in the D.C. area (WaPo).

Robinson Meyer writes the pandemic is headed towards a “strange in-between time” (Atlantic).

Zeynep Turfecki talks about the pandemic and thinking in systems with Ezra Klein (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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