Get the pattern, read the trend Asia in Review No. 10, March/2020, 2
Brought to you by CPG Dear Readers, Welcome to the second issue of ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) in February updating you on the latest developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia. I wish you an informative read. With the best wishes, Henning Glaser Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG) Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia China/Hong Kong: Police conduct in protests defended (dql) In response to ongoing criticism of Hong Kong’s police using excessive brutality to deal with protesters, the Deputy Commissioner of the Hong Kong Police Force defended at the UN Human Rights Council the city’s police arguing that accusations of police brutality were an attempt to vilify his institution and accusing rioting mobs of using violence to extort their demands from the government. [South China Morning Post] He was speaking as member of the Hong Group of the Chinese delegation to the 43rd session of the UN Human Rights Council. Last year, the UN Human Rights Office accused Hong Kong’s police of violating international norms and standards in their use of weapons, creating “a considerable risk of death or serious injury”. China: Plan to relax immigration rules triggers nationalist outcry (dql) Reflecting rising nationalist sentiment in China’s population, new regulations to liberalize requirements for permanent residency for foreigners, proposed the China’s Ministry of Justice, caused a torrent of xenophobia in social media. Among other claims, the rules are seen endangering China’s race, society, culture, and economy. [subchina] [Sixth Tone] Japan: PM Abe set to gain power to declare state of emergency over Covid-19 (dql) Amid mounting criticism of Prime Minister Abe’s alleged too relaxed handling of the Covid-19 outbreak in Japan, the Cabinet today approved a bill that would allow Abe to declare a state of emergency under which prefectural governors could order residents to stay indoors and schools to close as well as events to be canceled. Local governments could also temporarily take over private land and facilities to provide medical care. The bill is expected to pass the parliament this week. It is the third drastic measure of the Abe administration within weeks, following Abe’s request for nationwide closure of schools and cancellations of events as well as legislation on the release of 2.6 billion USD in emergency funds to subsidize companies and parents for missed work. [Japan Times] [Nikkei Asian Review] Abe has come under pressure in the wake of more than 1200 coronavirus cases in Japan, with latest polls showing 43% of the respondents approving of Abe’s handling of the outbreak, versus 41% disapproving. [Reuters] South Korea: North Korean defectors’ political party launched (ef) In a historic first, North Korean defectors launched a political party in South Korea. According to its representatives, the newly formed party, tentatively named ‘Inter-Korean Unification Party’ and claiming to represent more than 30.000 defectors, aims at “liberating” North Korea from autocratic rule and improving the rights of defectors. The launch comes after a former North Korean diplomat announced that he was running for the parliamentary elections on April 15. [Korea Herald] [Asia Times] South Korea: 2020 Ministry of Unification Work Plan released (ef) South Korea’s Ministry of Unification released its 2020 Work Plan. It entails plans to transform the DMZ into an international peace zone, to promote tourism to North Korea, including individual tourism for separated families, to make joint efforts to hold the 2032 Summer Olympic Games in Seoul and Pyongyang, and to address humanitarian issues. [Press Release of the Ministry of Unification] The plan has been criticized as unfeasible amid the Covid-19 outbreak, stalled denuclearizations talks between the USA and North Korea as well as Pyongyang’s latest weapon tests. [Korea Times] [AiR, No. 9, March/2020, 1] South Korea: New comprehensive cryptocurrency law (ef) The South Korean National Assembly passed a bill that provides a framework for the regulation and legalization of cryptocurrencies [TechCrunch]. Coming into force in March 2021, the bill will introduce a permit system for crypto exchanges including requirements for real-name accounts and ISMS authentication [Cointelegraph]. South Korea is one of the few countries with wide-scale adoption of the technology and with more than 30% South Korean workers having invested in cryptocurrencies in 2017. [Quartz] Taiwan: New KMT chairman (dql) In the latest development of its re-organization [AiR No. 4, January/2020, 4] following the crushing defeat in the presidential elections in January [AiR No. 2, January/2020, 2], Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has elected and sworn in Johnny Chiang, a US-educated politician and three- term lawmaker, as its new Chairman. [Focus Taiwan] Transitional justice in Taiwan: New report on 228 incident released (dql) Serving as reference for Taiwan’s government push to transitional justice, a new report on the 228 Incident, a civil uprising back in 1947 which led to a bloody government crackdown, was officially published past weekend. The report incorporates latest historical materials including government documents that have been declassified over the past two years and touches on several issues which have been not or rarely explored so far, including role of the government intelligence agencies and the deployment of government troops in quelling the uprising and the casualties. [Focus Taiwan] Law and Politics in South Asia India: New Developments in Jammu and Kashmir (tk/jk) Seven months after the Indian government enforced a total communications blackout, authorities in India on Wednesday temporarily restored full internet access in Kashmir for two weeks, until March 17. In January, authorities already partly restored low speed internet access to 301 government approved websites, excluding social media. [Asia in Review No. 4, January/2020] During this time, Kashmiris have been using virtual private networks (VPNs) to access blacklisted sites and started posting updates on social media. [Asia in Review No. 8, February/2020] Now, social media is accessible to Kashmiris, but internet access over mobile devices will remain restricted to low speeds. While many welcomed the government’s move, some are concerned that now it would be easier for the government to trace the IP addresses of the users which creates fear to express political thoughts about the situation on social media. [Al Jazeera] On Sunday, former lawmakers from three major pro-India parties formed a new political party “Apni Party”, which is the first major political development since last August, when India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and jailed nearly the entire pro-India and pro-freedom leadership. The party aims for the restoration of statehood and seeks guarantees from the Indian government that land and government jobs will stay with region’s residents only. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), however, stated that the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status was final and advised pro-India parties to confine their politics to a demand for statehood. Several pro-India politicians have been released from detention only after signing agreements that they would not speak against the removal of autonomy. [AA] India: UNHRC approaches Indian Supreme Court concerning the CAA (tk) UN Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHRC) Michelle Bachelet has filed an application urging the Indian Supreme Court to make the UN body a third party in a petition filed by a former civil servant against the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). India’s Ministry of External Affairs defended the CAA as internal matter. A spokesman said that they “strongly believe that no foreign party has any locus standi [rights] on issues pertaining to India’s sovereignty” of making laws. However, it is expected that the Supreme Court will hear the UNHRC application, since India as a UN member is obligated to uphold fundamental freedoms of all people and the discrimination based on religion might damage India’s reputation. [Al Jazeera] India: a small win for media freedom (jk) In a development related to media freedom in India and pertaining to the recent Delhi riots, the government has overturned a 48-hour broadcasting ban on two media channels over their reporting of the riots. The two TV channels were taken off the air over allegedly "biased" reporting on the issue, but the ban was overturned after protests against it, including by the channels who called the ban "a blatant attack on free and fair reporting". [The Straits Times] Sri Lanka and India score highest on "inclusive internet index" for South Asia (jk) The Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) ‘Inclusive Internet Index’, commissioned by Facebook, rates countries on the "internet’s availability, affordability, relevance and the readiness of people to use it." In South Asia, India ranked highest (46th out of 100), followed by Sri Lanka (56th). Pakistan ranked the lowest (76th), Bangladesh at 70th place. Both India and Pakistan did particularly bad in the "availability" category, examining the quality and breadth of available infrastructure required for access and levels of internet usage in relation to the other three categories. [EIU] Law and Politics in Southeast Asia Malaysia: New PM forms Cabinet (ls/ew) Newly appointed Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has unveiled his Cabinet, which contains several politicians from his former party, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno). His foreign minister will be Hishammuddin Hussein, the cousin of former prime minister Najib Razak and former defence and transport minister. Muhyiddin did not appoint any Deputy Prime Minister, but rather chose four senior ministers to support the PM in coordinating the affairs of the Cabinet related to economy, security, infrastructure development, education and social issues. For instance, Azmin Ali, one of the key players in the political turmoil that saw Muhyiddin come to power, was made senior minister of international trade and industry. According to observers, the appointments signal a return to more Malay-centric policymaking. [Malaysiakini] [South China Morning Post] Muhyiddin postponed the next parliamentary sitting from early March to May 18, delaying a plan of the former governing coalition, Pakatan Harapan, to table a motion of no confidence from the lower house’s floor. Jonathan Head has summed up Pakatan Harapan’s collapse over the last two years. For instance, he argues that, although Umno's reputation was damaged by the revelations about huge sums of money that went missing in the 1MDB financial scandal, the party has been quick to exploit public disappointment over the state of the economy. One consequence was that Pakatan Harapan has lost five out of the last six by-elections. [BBC] Malaysia: New Attorney-General and MACC chief – 1MDB lead prosecutor stays on (ls) After the resignation of Attorney-General Tommy Thomas last week, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has appointed Federal Court judge Idrus Harun as his successor. He is the elder brother of Election Commission chief Azhar Harun. [Straits Times 1] Idrus Harun announced that he will not replace Gopal Sri Ram, the lead prosecutor for the government in cases linked to former premier Najib Razak and state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). In another appointment, Azam Baki, deputy chief commissioner at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), was made chief commissioner of the agency after the resignation of Latheefa Koya, who had investigated the 1MDB fraud and led efforts to recover assets linked to the scandal. [Straits Times 2] Prime Minister Muhyiddin was once sacked as deputy prime minister and also from Umno for questioning then Prime Minister Najib over 1MDB. However, Najib stated last week that the fall of the government and the ascent of Muhyiddin meant he now expected an atmosphere “more conducive towards a fair trial”. He said he had not spoken to Muhyiddin since he took office, but he hoped to rebuild their relationship: “I hope it’s water under the bridge.” [Reuters] Thailand’s new parties: Future Forward becomes Move Forward; “Kla” is being formed (ls) Thailand’s political party landscape is seeing some changes. The 55 remaining MPs of the recently dissolved Future Forward party will all move to a newly renamed party. “Kao Klai” (Move Forward) is the new name of a party that until recently was the little-known Phueng Luang Party. It had registered the change of name. The 38-year old Pita Limjaroenrat will become the party leader. He stated that the party’s ideology will be the same as Future Forward’s. [Bangkok Post] In a separate development, former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij has been made the leader of his newly-registered party “Kla” (Dare) at the party’s first meeting in Bangkok on Saturday with 500 members. Korn quit the coalition Democrat Party, where he served as deputy leader, to set up Kla, which has been described as a start-up party. [Bangkok Post 2] Finally, Pheu Thai executive Ladawan Wongsriwong announced the setting up of a new party, "Samerpak" (Equality), which she is about to register with the Election Commission. Thailand: Judge who tried to kill himself last year commits suicide (ls) In Thailand, a judge who tried to shoot himself in a courtroom last October, killed himself at his residence in Chiang Mai province. He left a note saying he lost the will to live after he was placed under investigation for his previous suicide attempt, when he carried his gun into the courthouse. In a written statement leaked to social media last year, he said he had been pressured by his supervisor to find suspects guilty despite a lack of concrete evidence. [Khaosod English] Indonesia: Twitter and Facebook take down army’s fake accounts (ls) Twitter and Facebook have suspended dozens of accounts that were linked to a network of news sites backed by the Indonesian army that publish pro-government propaganda about the restive region of Papua. Facebook previously took down a network of fake accounts and pages posting content on the Papua Independence movement in October 2019. [Reuters] Similar allegations emerged in Thailand during a parliamentary censure debate two weeks ago [Asia in Review No. 8, February/2020], in which opposition members claimed that the government was using so-called information operations (IOs) to discredit its opponents, particularly in the south of the country. A number of forums will be held in major provinces across the country this week, which will focus on answers given by the government during the censure debate. [Bangkok Post] International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia China: Recently commissioned warships declared combat-ready (dql) Signaling the ongoing advancement of the modernization of the China’s military, only one year after commission two Chinese warships are ready to serve in battle. According to Global Times a guided missile destroyer and a guided missile frigate passed an all-subject training examination at sea. [Global Times] For the technology and performance capabilities of these warships see [The Diplomat]. CIA accused of hacking campaign against China (dql) A Chinese security firm has accused the CIA of hacking various Chinese industry sectors and government agencies for espionage purposes from 2008 to 2019. The firm cited intercepted malicious software samples as well as an analysis of the times in which these software samples were created. Both suggest that the tools were devised during working hours on the U.S. East Coast, where the CIA's headquarter is located. [Reuters] The accusation comes weeks after US federal prosecutors announced charges against four Chinese intelligence officers accused of hacking the credit-reporting giant Equifax back in 2017 exposing sensitive financial records of almost 150 million Americans and many other foreigners. [AiR No. 6, February/2020, 2] Japan-South Korea relations: Tit-for-tat coronavirus curbs (dql) Already strained relations between Japan and South Korea are set to further cooling down over the coronavirus epidemic. In response to Tokyo's decision to impose new restrictions for South Korean visitors over coronavirus fears, including a voluntary self-quarantine upon arrival, Seoul announced a halt of a visa-free entry program for Japan and other countermeasures including the invalidation of already issued visas. [Japan Times][Yonhap] Japan next fighter plane generation to be built by U.S. firms (dql) Japan announced its decision in favor of U.S. firms and against British companies to build its next-generation fighter plane: a long-range fighter plane with stealth characteristics and usable for patrolling the country's vast maritime sovereignty. The costs are expected to amount to tens of billions of USD while the deployment of the new jets is scheduled in the 2030s. [Nikkei Asian Review] Pakistan listed 11th largest importer of major arms (jk) According to report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan was ranked the eleventh largest arms importer in the world and named China (73%), Russia (6.6%) and Italy (6.1%) as the main suppliers of arms to the country. [The News] China’s belt and road project in Pakistan risks becoming corridor to nowhere (jk) Around 7 years after the initiation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), less than a third of projects that were announced have been completed. Problems in Pakistan, including the ongoing struggles in Balochistan, or serious government corruption, are however only one among many headaches for China with regards to its Belt and Road project. The BRI, in many places, is not as successful as leaders in Beijing might have hoped. The slowing down of the PRC's own economy will not help the situation, least of all in Pakistan - a country that has received 13 - largely US funded- IMF bail-outs since the late 1980s. [Bloomberg] South China Sea: Continued tensions between Southeast Asian countries (ls/ps) Indonesia has detained dozens of crew members from Vietnamese boats it claims have been fishing illegally near the Natuna Islands. The Indonesian government claims the area in the southernmost reaches of the South China Sea as its exclusive economic zone. In January, Indonesia deployed fighter jets and warships in a conflict with Beijing over Chinese vessels entering the area. [Channel News Asia] In addition, Malaysia, Vietnam and China have for weeks been entangled in a quiet naval standoff. As reported earlier [Asia in Review No. 8, February/2020], Malaysia triggered the showdown by exploring for energy resources beyond its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Vietnam then deployed militia vessels to the area, and China responded by launching the China Coast Guard’s (CCG). The developments, which pitted fellow ASEAN countries against each other, leave question marks over ASEAN’s joint approach toward China’s vast territorial claims. [Asia Times] Meanwhile, Vietnam and the US are looking to further strengthen relations as the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill arrive in Da Nang, Vietnam. It is the second visit of a US warship to Vietnam since American troops left almost 50 years ago. China has repeatedly trespassed the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Vietnam with oil survey ships and fishing boats escorted by its coast guard. Analysts say Vietnam is unable to protect its resources and is therefore seeking international support. [South China Morning Post][US Navy] Philippines: Senators challenge withdrawal from US defense agreement (tk) Senators in the Philippines launched a Supreme Court challenge against President Rodrito Duterte who terminated the 21-year-old Visiting Force Agreement (VFA) with the U.S. on February 11. [Asia in Review No. 6, February/2020] They argue that the president cannot unilaterally rule out an agreement approved by them. [Al Jazeera] The Senators seek a ruling not only for the VFA case, but for all similar treaties and agreements as the Constitution provides that a two-thirds majority of all Members of the Senate are required for the conclusion of a treaty or international agreement but is silent about its termination. [PhilStar] Vietnamese emergency over Mekong river drought displays cross-border effects (ls) The Mekong river’s water resources, which are shared between several countries, are in the spotlight again as five provinces in Vietnam’s Mekong delta region have declared a state of emergency over a continued extreme drought and salinity. Lack of rain combined with growing water consumption on river tributaries, as well as increased water storage in dams in China and Laos, are likely to spur the drought and make saline intrusion more severe. Water usage upstream on the Mekong in China, Laos and Thailand has increased the dryness. [South China Morning Post] Cambodia to sign Free-Trade Agreement with China (ps) Cambodia and China are planning to sign a Free-Trade Agreement later this year after Prime Minister Hun Sen and President Xi had first negotiations last month in Beijing. Further talks are planned for the middle of the year with both parties being expected to sign the agreement by the end of the year. Trade figures between the two nations have increased steadily from $5.16 billion in 2016 to $7.4 billion in 2018 with the aim of reaching $10 billion by 2023. After partially loosing trade preferences to the European Union [AiR No. 7, February/2020, 3] Cambodia is still seeking for FTA’s with other economies like South Korea or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). [Khmer Times] Aung San Suu Kyi loses another human rights award (tk) The City of London Corporation (CLC) has revoked an award granted to Myanmar’s leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi as she personally defends her country against allegations of rape, arson and mass killings with genocidal intent against Rohingya victims at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. This is not the first international honor she lost. In 2018, Amnesty International withdrew its highest honor, The Ambassador of Conscience Award. [Amnesty International] The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum rescinded its top award and the City of Oxford, where she studied and raised her children, revoked its honorific freedom. [Daily Sabah] Background Reading Transformations of matriarchal societies in Asia (ls) An in-depth article in the South China Morning Post describes how matriarchal and matrilineal societies in China, India and Indonesia are struggling to survive, amid threats posed by the modern world such as mass tourism, technology and the infiltration of ideas from mainstream patriarchal society. The world’s largest known matrilineal society today, with about 8 million members, is believed to be the Minangkabau in Indonesia, also known as Minang. [South China Morning Post] Listen: ANU Professor Rory Medcalf about the future of the Indo-Pacific region (jk) In this podcast, ANU Professor Rory Medcalf talks about his new book "Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China won’t map the Future" and the future of the Indo-Pacific region. He argues that the Indo-Pacific can avoid the cataclysm of war if constructed on ‘multipolarity, solidarity and a confident kind of strategic patience’. In the podcast - and the book - Medcalf calls for greater roles for countries such as Japan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia and explains why he thinks that there are good reasons to think Chinese power has already peaked and why China’s ability to map the future is limited. His keys to balance China are development, deterrence and diplomacy. [Policy Forum] We would greatly appreciate your feedback! 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