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A Bizarre Sprint for Next Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

President Trump’s unprecedented bid to wrest greater control of the Federal Reserve barreled toward a suspense-filled conclusion yesterday amid two parallel efforts to decide who will be able to participate at next week’s interest-rate meeting. In the span of just hours, a judge granted a legal victory to Fed governor Lisa Cook, and a Senate committee advanced the nomination of Trump pick Stephen Miran.

The judge’s decision allows Cook to remain in her job, at least for now, amid President Trump’s attempt to remove her, and the Senate committee’s action sets up the possibility of a Senate floor vote as soon as this week that would allow Miran to to fill a vacancy on the Fed’s board in time for next week’s meeting.

Meanwhile, the U.S. today will see one last inflation reading before the Fed meeting, with the consumer-price index for August due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast the headline annual rate will rise to 2.9%.

Elsewhere today, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged following its latest policy meeting. That decision is due at 8:15 a.m. ET.

 

Top News

Judge Saves Cook, Senate Rushes Trump Adviser

Stephen Miran and Lisa Cook. PHOTO: Alex Brandon/AP, Al Drago/Bloomberg

Late Tuesday, a federal judge granted Fed governor Lisa Cook an injunction that temporarily halted President Trump’s attempt to remove her. The decision was a crucial legal victory for Cook—and the central bank’s independence more broadly—because it allows her to remain in her job and clears the path for her to vote at next week's consequential Fed meeting, when officials are expected to make their first interest-rate cut of the year.

On Wednesday morning, attention shifted to the Senate Banking Committee, where Republicans rushed to confirm Trump adviser Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Fed’s board, setting up the possibility of a Senate floor vote as soon as this week that would allow him to join the same meeting.

  • Where Are Fed Interest Rates Headed? Here's What Traders Think.
 

Economy

Producer Prices Fall for August, Surprising Economists

Wholesale prices ticked lower in August after a rapid rise in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The producer-price index fell 0.1% last month. Economists expected a 0.3% rise, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

  • What to Know About Inflation, in Charts

Labor Department Watchdog Will Review Econ-Stats Challenges

The Labor Department's internal-watchdog office is gearing up for a review of data-collection challenges at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office said in a letter Wednesday. The review will focus on the two critical economic trends that the BLS tracks: employment and inflation. 

Tariff Case Could Give Trump Massive New Fiscal Powers

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear President Trump’s appeal of a lower-court ruling against his tariffs. Its decision could matter well beyond just the levies that Trump imposed in April.

  • Mexico to Impose Import Tariffs to Bolster Industry

Philippines Central Bank Doesn’t Try to Move in Lockstep With Fed

Central banks in emerging markets must guard against a reawakening of inflation that ran hot in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, and domestic issues like household debt.

Attempting to keep up with the Fed comes with risks, especially if demand at home is resilient to global trade headwinds. “We don’t try to move in lockstep with the Fed,” said Eli Remolona, governor of the Philippines’s central bank and an alumnus of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 

Financial Regulation

The Hot Investment With a 3,000% Return? Pokémon Cards

Lucas Shaw hit the jackpot with his latest investment. The 27-year old account manager in Ohio used some of the gains to splurge on his fiancée’s custom engagement ring, which has three diamonds totaling 3.5 carats on an 18-karat gold band. The money will also help pay for their wedding. Shaw’s windfall didn’t involve Big Tech stocks or crypto. It was thanks to the hottest investment among individual traders these days: Pokémon trading cards.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: CPI
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

Friday

10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
12 p.m.: World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
7 p.m.: U.S. Congressional Budget Office releases 'CBO's Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028'

 

Research

Construction Materials Are Getting More Expensive

Though the latest reading of wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in August, construction inputs continued to climb, adding pressure to a sector where activity has waned amid persistently high borrowing costs and import taxes.

Construction-material prices rose 0.2% in August, bringing to 2.3% the year-over-year increase. Declines in oil and natural gas prices, as well as a 3.8% drop in copper wire and cable—the result of tariff-related market turbulence—helped to offset gains in asphalt, steel, plumbing fixtures and lumber.

Steel mill products are now up 13.1% year-over-year, copper products have risen 13.8% and softwood lumber is up 5.8%, though lately prices for two-by-fours have tumbled.

President Trump has slapped 50% tariffs on the metals in the name of national security. He’s threatened to do the same with lumber, adding a tariff on top of duties on Canadian imports that rose last month to 35% for most producers, from roughly 15%.

Construction spending has declined 3.4% from its peak in May 2024 and residential building permits in July dropped to their lowest level since June 2020, during the Covid lockdown.

Nonetheless, Associated Builders and Contractors chief economist Anirban Basu said, “contractors remain broadly optimistic about their profit margins over the next six months, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index.” — Ryan Dezember

 

Basis Points

  • Canadians avoided travel to the U.S. in August, continuing a trend fueled by President Trump's hefty tariffs on Canadian imports and his musings earlier this year that Canada should become the 51st state. Preliminary data from Statistics Canada says the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. via car fell about 34% in August from the same year-ago month. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • Global oil markets are bracing for an even larger surplus than previously anticipated as supply growth continues to far outstrip demand, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report.
  • Indonesia’s newly minted finance minister has hit the ground running, promising to inject about $12 billion into the economy to support growth.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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