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Stephen Miran Makes His Case for More—and Bigger—Rate Cuts

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The newest Federal Reserve board member, Stephen Miran, argued for aggressive interest-rate cuts in his first television interview since taking the job, signaling he is likely to stay closely aligned with President Trump’s demands for lower rates while serving at the central bank. Miran is due to speak again today at an Economic Club of New York event, while several regional Fed presidents will make appearances across the country. Meanwhile, bets in the futures market show investors expect that the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate will fall just below 3% by the end of next year, from slightly above 4% now. Elsewhere, the People's Bank of China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month.

 

Top News

Stephen Miran Makes His Case for More—and Bigger—Rate Cuts

PHOTO: Francis Chung - Pool via CNP/Zuma Press

New Fed governor Stephen Miran said Friday on CNBC he doesn’t believe that tariffs are causing inflation and that other federal policy changes are likely to ease the pace of price increases. He added he expects economic growth to improve in the second half of the year.

Wall Street Bets Rates Will Drop Much More Than the Fed’s Forecasts

Wall Street thinks interest rates are poised to come down faster than the Federal Reserve does—a wager that is already boosting the economy and markets by making it cheaper for Americans to borrow.

  • Lower Rates Are Set to Juice the Commercial-Property Market

China Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates Unchanged

China's benchmark lending rates were kept unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in September, despite weak credit demand and cooling growth momentum. The one-year loan prime rate remained at 3%, while the five-year rate was kept at 3.5%, according to data released by the People's Bank of China on Monday. The last cut to benchmark loan rates was in May, as Beijing aimed to reduce financing costs and stimulate domestic demand while trade tensions with the U.S. intensified. (Dow Jones Newswires)

 

U.S. Economy

Will a $100,000 Visa Fee Help U.S. Workers? Economists Not So Sure

President Trump’s administration set the new fee for the visas. PHOTO: Bonnie Cash/Bloomberg News

The Trump administration says the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas it announced Friday will help American workers. Economists agree that it could indeed benefit some U.S. workers. But they worry that for the bulk of workers it could do just the opposite.

Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News.

Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging.

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Data in Focus

U.S. economic data, including PCE inflation, purchasing managers’ surveys and durable goods figures, will be closely monitored as investors assess the likely pace of interest-rate cuts in the coming months after the Federal Reserve reduced rates at its September meeting.

How One Teacher Tells Her Gen-Z Students the Story of Capitalism

At Parkway West High School in Ballwin, Mo., the aptly named Rachel Money teaches capitalism as part of the curriculum for freshman U.S. History and for juniors and seniors in various advanced-placement classes.

Money doesn’t expect ideological consensus. Her goal is for students to understand how capitalism in America does—and sometimes doesn’t—work, while building the skills to analyze, question and compare other economic systems. And she only has a few lessons in which to impart all that wisdom.

 

Financial Regulation

SEC Chief Supports Proposal to End Quarterly Reporting Requirement

The SEC supports proposing a rule change to eliminate the requirement for quarterly earnings reports, Chairman Paul Atkins said Friday.

BBVA Pursues $20 Billion Deal to Become Europe’s 3rd-Largest Bank

BBVA has sweetened its hostile takeover bid for Banco de Sabadell by 10%, as it looks to win over shareholders in its smaller rival to create one of Europe’s biggest banks.

 

Forward Guidance

Monday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
10 a.m.: Brookings Institution discussion featuring FRB St. Louis President Alberto Musalem
12 p.m.: FRB Cleveland President Beth Hammack participates in Fed Talk conversation event
12 p.m.: Economic Club of New York event with new Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran
12 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at Howard County Chamber of Commerce event

Tuesday

9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
10 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in Macro Musings podcast

 

Research

Kashkari Says Fed Independence Expected to Be Backed by U.S. Institutions

Fed independence has become an even hotter topic with governor Stephen Miran on unpaid leave from his job at the White House while voting for an interest-rate cut deeper than his FOMC colleagues supported. But Wall Street seems to have taken the change in stride, which Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari attributes to confidence in U.S. institutions. "There's widespread appreciation for how important Fed independence is," among investors and lawmakers, he said on CNBC. "I think people are betting on the institutions of the country continuing to keep Fed independence, to keep it outside of the short-term political process." — Paulo Trevisani

 

Basis Points

  • U.S. investors are sitting on a pile of cash. Even with rates now coming down, many are in no rush to move it.
  • Greece is looking to persuade foreign investors to buy into a revival from its debt crisis, its finance minister said, as uncertainty about the reshaping of the global economy remains despite a relatively soft blow from President Trump’s tariff storm.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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