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Asia in Review

No. 16, April/2020, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s AiR issue in times in which we are still struggling to cope with the unique pandemic situation and its rules and restrictions.   

With greetings from the AiR team,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in Asia

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Law and Politics in Asia

Sudden oil price plunges hit Asian stock markets

(hg) The oil market just saw further turbulences hitting Asia as well. The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing), which expires on this Tuesday, dropped more than 100% overnight, crashed through zero to settle at an unprecedented negative $37.63 per barrel. Largely as a reaction, today afternoon of Asian trading hours, Asian stocks dropped significantly, in particular in China, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. [CNBC]

This latest plunge is ugly but less dramatic as such. In any case, it points at a general trend that looks quite bad. Although OPEC+ did agree to historic production cuts, these will hardly be able to cope with the ongoing decline in demand. Taken together, the now-settled Saudi-Russian price war on the supply side and the COVId-19 induced demand destruction created a historic menace that will stay some time.
But what is the reason for the even extremer plunge just now? With the general situation remaining bad and the OPEC+ production cuts being not effective immediately, traders desperately tried to abandon the futures contract for May, which expires this week. The reason is that “nobody wants physical delivery of WTI for May”, […] with storage options dwindling in some places, traders liquidated their positions, selling contracts at crazy discounts” as Nick Cunningham explains. [Oil Price].

How bad the underlying general market situation develops is reflected by the fact that even a particularly oil depended country as India with huge demand, in general, might not benefit much from the extremely low oil prices as it also keeps its entire society under lockdown. With low demand and tanks being already full, India is likely to refrain from buying any oil. [India Today]

Even the world's largest oil storage firm, Vopak, which operates three main facilities in Singapore, Rotterdam, and Fujairah - one of the seven emirates making up the United Arab Emirates - is at the end of its capacity.

More interesting is news from Indonesia whose state-owned PT Pertamina seems to hire tankers from the end of April and early May for a minimum of six months to store refined fuels at sea in a bid to take advantage of the plunging oil price. [The Star]

Besides these current developments, the relative improvement expected for the June WTI contract, which is trading at $20 per barrel will still have grave consequences, especially for oil-exporting countries, especially for producing the barrel rather costly which also includes the US. [Oil Price 2]

The broader outlook is bleak with the second quarter looking to be the most uncertain and disruptive quarter that the industry has ever seen and with the market probably remaining depressed through year-end as he Halliburton CEO just stated in a thorough assessment of the market on Monday. [Halliburton]

On a longer-term, an article in the FT raises the question if 2019 could even mark the all-time peak in global oil demand. The author argues this could well be one possible outcome of the crisis due to permanent changes in consumer behavior adding to the expectable effects of efficiency improvements that have already been induced before the crisis took off. [FT]

2020 World Press Freedom Index

(dql) Reporters Without Borders has released it 2020 World Press Freedom Index according to which the world is “[e]ntering a decisive decade for journalism, exacerbated by coronavirus” as the pandemic reveals “the many crises that threaten the right to freely reported, independent, diverse and reliable information,” including “a geopolitical crisis (due to the aggressiveness of authoritarian regimes); a technological crisis (due to a lack of democratic guarantees); a democratic crisis (due to polarisation and repressive policies); a crisis of trust (due to suspicion and even hatred of the media); and an economic crisis (impoverishing quality journalism).”

The highest ranked Asian country is South Korea at 42nd position, followed by Taiwan at 43rd position, while North Korea takes the last position (180th). Japan is at 66th, Hong Kong at 80th, and China at 177th position.

Malaysia jumped 22 places to be the top in South-East Asia and 101st in the world. Indonesia (119th), Philippines (136th), Myanmar (139th), Thailand (140th), Cambodia (144th), Brunei (152nd), Singapore (158th), Laos (172nd) and Vietnam (175th).

India (142nd) ranked better than its neighbours Pakistan (145th) and Bangladesh (151st), but worse than Sri Lanka (127th) and Nepal (112th).

Norway is ranked on the top of the index followed by Finland and Denmark. [RSF]

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Leading pro-democracy figures arrested

(dql) In a move signaling rising political heat in Kong Hong, the city’s police last Saturday arrested more than a dozen high-profile pro-democracy figures over charges of partaking in un-authorized anti-government protests last year. Among the arrested were political heavyweight Martin Lee, founder of United Democrats of Hong Kong and its successor, the Democratic Party, Hong Kong’s flagship pro-democracy party, and media tycoon Jimmy Lai, owner of the Apple Daily, the biggest pro-democracy media organization in the city. [Radio Free Asia]

While the police insisted that the arrests were made based on evidence and in strict accordance to laws, the move was met with strong objections on the side of the anti-government camp which claims that the arrests reflect attempts of the government to introduce a reign of terror to silence political dissent ahead of the Legislative Council election in September. [South China Morning] [Hong Kong Free Press]

The arrests triggered also condemnation from the USA and UK with US Secretary of State Pompeo calling them “inconsistent with commitments made under the Sino-British Joint Declaration that include transparency, the rule of law,” while the British Foreign Office demanded that authorities in Hong Kong refrain from “actions that inflame tensions” and “focus on rebuilding trust through a process of meaningful political dialogue.” [The Guardian]

China was quick to hit back criticizing in strong words US officials for interfering in Chinese internal affairs and for “condoning evil and making a travesty of the rule of law by ignoring the facts, distorting the Sino-British Joint Declaration, and trying to exonerate anti-China troublemakers in Hong Kong on the pretext of ‘transparency’, ‘the rule of law’ and ‘a high degree of autonomy’.” [Xinhua]

The arrests come amid recent signals of a hardening stance of the city government and Beijing towards pro-democratic forces, including the ruling of the Appeal Court that the government’s ban on face masks for unlawful assemblies was constitutional [AiR No. 15, April/2020, 2] and the call of the Director of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in the Hong Kong for a swift enactment of a national security law, shelved since 2003, to combat what he sees as violence, foreign interference and pro-independence forces. [The Guardian]

Furthermore, both the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong issued statements rejecting claims that they are subject to restrictions of Hong Kong’s Basic Law that bar the Chinese government from interfering in the city’s internal affairs and insisting that both agencies are but “authorized by the central authorities to handle Hong Kong affairs,” and to be involved in and exercise supervisory power over issues pertaining to  the “correct implementation of the Basic Law, the orderly operation of the political system and overall interests of society.” [Liaison Office Hong Kong, in Chinese] 

China: Nationalist sentiments over Covid-19

(dql) Reflecting rising nationalism in China in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, an award-winning Chinese writer is facing attacks from compatriots on social media over her diary about the Wuhan lockdown, criticizing her for providing ammunition for Western critics of Beijing’s handling of the health crisis and calling her traitor. The book, titled ‘The Wuhan Diary’, will be published in English and German, too. [South China Morning Post]

For insights into rising nationalism and xenophobia China in the wake of a claimed defeat of the coronavirus and its impact on the every-day life of foreigners see [Today Online], [RTE].

South Korea: Ruling party wins in historic general election

(ef) Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, South Korea held its general parliamentary election on April 15, under extensive security measures ranging from mandatory gloves to mail-in ballots. 

President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) won 163 out of the 300 seats in the National Assembly. Moreover, the DP’s satellite party, the Together Citizen Party, won an additional 17 seats. Together, both parties secured the largest parliamentary majority in three decades enabling them legislate on their own without the need to cooperate with the opposition parties.

The main opposition party United Future Party (UFP) and its proxy party, the Future Korea Party, secured a total of 103 seats. Acknowledging the defeat, the UFP’s chairman stepped down from his post.

Despite Covid-19, voter turnout was the highest in 28 years with 66.2 percent of the electorate casting their votes. As widely expected, the decisive factor of the election was the government’s swift and successful response to the Covid-19 pandemic. [The New York Times] [Korea Herald]

Japan: Abe under pressure as COVID-19 cases surge despite nationwide state of emergency

(dql) Despite a nationwide state of emergency declared last week [BBC], confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections has risen to over 11,000, with hundreds detected daily, and a total of deaths at more than 270. [Kyodo News]

The government has come under pressure over these numbers and medical experts’ warning of a collapse of the country’s health system. Critics argue that the state of emergency lacks vigor as regional governments are allowed to urge people to stay inside, but without punitive measures or legal force, and as shops and restaurants are still allowed to open. [Channel News Asia] [Japan Times]

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abe has bowed to pressure from Komeito, the partner of his Liberal Democratic Party in the ruling coalition, to allocate more money to ease the impact of the coronavirus crisis. On Monday, his Cabinet approved a reworked supplementary fund expanding it by more than 80 billion dollars in order to offer cash handouts of 100.000 yen (approx. 900 USD) to every person in the country. The payments will start in May. [NHK]

Taiwan: Kaohsiung mayor to face recall vote 

(dql) In a historic first, Kaohsiung’s citizens will be able to decide on the fate of their Kuomintang (KMT) mayor, Han Kuo-yu, in a recall vote scheduled for June 6. The Central Election Commission (CEC) announce its decision last Friday after a last-minute legal challenge by Han to the recall motion  [AiR No. 15, April/2020, 2] was dismissed. 

Never before has such a high official been targeted with a recall vote in Taiwan. Han, who claims that the recall motion is politically motivated, unexpectedly won the mayoral election in Kaohsiung in November 2018, but he rapidly lost public support in the course of his presidential campaign due to grandiose promises and careless statements made there. In January he eventually lost the presidential election against Tsai Ing-wen by a wide margin. [Taiwan News] [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Government amends Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy, including China in tougher investment scrutiny 

(jk) The Government of India has reviewed its current Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy regarding takeovers and acquisitions of Indian companies by foreign investors. Now, all neighbouring countries need approval from India's government for investments, a policy previously only applied to Pakistan and Bangladesh. 

The regulations are particularly relevant for China which has already invested heavily in India. Earlier this year for instance, the People's Bank of China has raised its stake in India's largest non-banking mortgage provider HDFC despite "sliding shares" - a warning sign for many observers regarding Chinese influence in India. [India Today]

China is seen by many to be looking to increase their investments and take-overs amid the Covid-19 crisis when many businesses are desperate, struggle and are open to cheap take-overs and investments. The revised FDI regulations are supposed to mitigate this.  [Tech Crunch] 

India: Tablighi Jamaat leader charged with homicide over coronavirus cases 

(jk) In a latest development regarding the Islamic missionary organization Tablighi Jamaat which held a large gathering responsible for a significant rise in coronavirus cases in India, and the ensuing anti-Muslim actions expressed by government officials and parts of Indian society on social media and elsewhere [Asia in Review No. 14, April/2020, 1] [Asia in Review No. 15, April/2020, 2], Indian police now says charges of culpable homicide against the chief of the organisation have been added. The charges carry a maximum punishment of 10-years in prison. [Straits Times]

Pakistan eventually joints SAARC Covid Fund

(jk) When India initiated the creation of a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Covid-19 Emergency Relief Fund, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka – all SAARC member states but Pakistan – have pledged financial support to the fund. India, for instance began with a US$ 10 million pledge. [Asia in Review No. 11, March/2020, 3] [Asia in Review No. 12, March/2020, 4]

Pakistan, initially reluctant and counterproductive, has now changed their approach by proposing an online conference of South Asia’s health ministers and pledging US$3 million to the SAARC fund. [Arynews]

Pakistan: US$1.4 billion loan from IMF for Covid response approved 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a loan of US$1.4 billion for Pakistan to meet balance of payments needs after the outbreak of Covid-19. The IMF said this "Rapid Financial Instrument" is additional to the US$6 billion Extended Fund Facility to help Pakistan’s immediate efforts to COVID-19. [Arynews]

Further to Pakistan's relief G-20 countries have decided to include Pakistan in a debt relief plan, repackaging due payments from May to December 2020 as new loans.

Bangladesh rescues Rohingya drifting at sea but dozens died and more are feared to be at sea 

(jk) Officials in Bangladesh said a ship with almost 400 Rohingya refugees that left for Malaysia eight weeks ago was found adrift in the Bay of Bengal. On board were refugees who had left the refugee camp near Cox's Bazar and had hoped to reach Malaysia. After being turned away - according to witnesses due to stricter measures during the Covid-19 pandemic- the boat remained at sea in hope of being granted access to the Malaysian shore before it attempted a return to Bangladesh.

When the Bangladesh Coast Guard eventually took the ship in after it was notified of its presence in the Bay of Bengal, it found that at least 30 of the Rohingya refugees had died at sea. [The Guardian 1]

Just days later, Malaysia said it had denied entry to a second boat carrying about 200 Rohingya refugees which is now also believed to be adrift at sea. Amnesty International is calling for Malaysia and Thailand to “immediately dispatch search and rescue boats with food, water and medicine to meet the urgent needs of possibly hundreds still at sea”. [The Guardian 2]

Bangladesh: Abdul Majed, murderer of first president and independence leader executed

(jk) In Bangladesh, the convicted killer of the country's independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and nearly all his family members in 1975 has been executed. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who was not killed during the attack by an elite military team on the family as she was abroad at the time.

The assassination team was first rewarded and politically very active in Bangladesh, including holding high government positions. Their fortune changed when Hasina's Awami League came to power for the first time in 1996, and in 1998, a Dhaka Court sentenced the murderer and his accomplices to death. Majed managed to leave the country prior to the sentencing however and spend over 20 years in hiding. He was arrested after returning from India recently and executed after a clemency appeal had been rejected. [Economic Times India] [The Print]

Sri Lanka: Election Commission sets election date for June 20 

(jk) A gazette notice by the members of the National Election Commission was released this week, announcing the date of the upcoming parliamentary election to be June 20. [Devdiscourse]

With regards to the potential constitutional impasse due to provisions that the new Parliament must meet within three months of dissolution (which took place on March 2) [Asia in Review No. 14, April/2020, 1], the EC has asked the President to seek the highest court's opinion. He however stated that it is the EC's job to set a date and the Supreme Court does not need to get involved.

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysia: Announcement of one-day parliamentary session on 18 May provokes criticism

(ls) Following the postponement of the Malaysian parliament’s initial sitting after new Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had been sworn in on 9 March [Asia in Review, No. 10, March/2020, 2], the Dewan Rakyat’s secretary issued a circular on Friday to all MPs informing them that there will be a one-day sitting on 18 May. In that sitting, the King will deliver his customary opening address. Apart from that, only government bills and matters would be discussed, with no oral and written questions or motions allowed. The justification for this unprecedented move appears to be the movement restrictions that have been issued due to the Covid-19 crisis. Actual debates will not take place before July. [Free Malaysia Today]

Most observers interpret this as a move of the government to buy time in order to gather more support from MPs to be able to resist a vote of no confidence to be tabled by the opposition. Indeed, other legislatures across the world, including the state legislature of the Malaysian state of Penang, have been able to introduce social distancing in seating arrangements, wearing of masks, and convening by tele-conferencing.

Thus, former PM Mahatir Mohammad criticized the one-day session, saying that the government is not yet “certified”.  At the same, the opposition, including the remains of Pakatan Harapan and a faction of Bersatu – would still have to decide on the opposition leader. [The Star]

Former PM-hopeful Anwar Ibrahim warned that the decision to limit the parliamentary sitting to just one day might set a dangerous precedent for the future, pointing also to the multitude of pressing topics that ought to be debated, with the measures to handle the Covid-19 crisis in particular. [Malay Mail]

The case is remindful of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move last year to advise the Queen to prorogue a parliament session and to reconvene a bit more than two weeks before the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union. The UK Supreme Court ruled this unconstitutional. Based on a comparative view, some commentators consider the Malaysian postponement to be in violation of Malaysia’s Federal Constitution, as well. [Malaysian Public Law]

Myanmar’s Rakhine and Chin states face massive insurgency operations
 

(hg) This Tuesday, a driver of the World Health Organization died of his injuries he suffered together with a government health worker when their vehicle came under attack yesterday in Rakhine State where they were transporting COVID-19 test samples. [Frontier Myanmar] The attack points at a spiking violence in an increasingly dangerous armed conflict.

Three years after Myanmar’s Army started to clamp down massively on Rohingya, a significant insurgency takes shape in Myanmar’s Western Rakhine and Chin states. This time, Myanmar’s armed forces are heavily challenged by an ethnic Rakhine armed group called Arakan Army (AA).

Founded in 2009 by Rakhine Buddhists who seek self-governance, the exchange of hostilities between the insurgents and government forces (Tatmadaw) began escalating in late 2018. In August 2019, the AA conducted coordinated attacks on the Tatmadaw’s Defense Services Technological Academy (DSTA) in the Mandalay Region, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), together forming the Northern Alliance. Subsequent peace talks delivered no tangible results. [Irrawaddy] As a result of the increasing clashes, more than 100,000 people have been displaced already last year. [Myanmar Now]

In January this year, the AA launched an attack on an advanced regional military training school in Rakhine. Afterwards, the AA increased its pressure on the government when several hundred fighters attacked four police posts in northern Rakhine state. As a response, the Aung San Suu Kyi government instructed the armed forces to “crush” the rebels. [Economist]

Since then, the security forces deployed 15,000-20,000 troops in a massive operation, involving heavy artillery and almost daily air strikes in populated areas with a growing number of civilian casualties. [Economist] [Irrawaddy] [VoA 1] [Myanmar Now]

The AA has made itself a name as a guerrilla force that also operates in urban areas, conducts bombings and abducted hundreds of civil servants, policemen, soldiers and politicians. According to an expert, Myanmar’s armed forces have suffered at least a couple of thousand casualties in what might be “the most serious insurgency the Burmese military have faced since independence” (Anthony Davies). [Economist]

Besides the recent mobilization, the government has blocked mobile-internet service to about 1 million people in Rakhine and Chin states since June, and the police has charged several journalists who interviewed the AA’s leader with violating the counter-terrorism law after the government has designated the AA as a terrorist organization March this year. [Economist] [VOA 2]

Dozens of Rohingya refugees die on board boat turned away by Southeast Asian neighbors

(ls) About 60 Rohingya refugees have died on board a boat that was refused entry by Thailand and Malaysia, apparently also because of stricter controls due to the coronavirus pandemic. The boat with initially about 500 people on board had started its journey in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. After about two and a half months in the Gulf of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, it arrived in Bangladesh where the surviving people on board were rescued. [South China Morning Post]

Another boat with about 200 Rohingya refugees was refused in entry by Malaysia last week. The latest developments have sparked concerns of a repeat of a 2015 crisis when many Rohingya died at sea after Southeast Asian nations turned their boats back following the collapse of long-established people smuggling routes. While relatively few boats have arrived in Malaysia since then, some have been allowed into the country. Earlier this month, 202 Rohingya landed in Langkawi and were detained. [Channel News Asia]

Former Malaysian prime minister Mahatir Mohammad has frequently called Myanmar to stop all acts of persecution against the Rohingya minority.

In an unrelated development, Myanmar has transferred hundreds of recently released Rohingya prison inmates back to Rakhine state, after fears that overcrowded prisons could become hotbeds for coronavirus outbreaks. In Rakhine state, Rohingya live under tight movement restrictions and in conditions Amnesty International has condemned as "apartheid". [Straits Times]

Covid-19 in the Philippines: Duterte threatens to bring in military – Senate raises mismanagement

(ls) As the number of Covid-19 infections in the Philippines continues to rise, President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened a martial law-like intervention, bringing in police and military, to stop people from ignoring a virus lockdown in Manila. The imposition of martial law is a sensitive issue in the Philippines as it evokes the human rights abuses of the Ferdinand Marcos regime. Duterte had imposed martial law over the island of Mindanao from May 2017 to December 2019 in response to Islamic State-inspired militants’ siege of the city of Marawi. [Bangkok Post]

Meanwhile, in a surprise move, several Senators, including the Senate president, have filed a resolution calling for the resignation of Health Secretary Francisco Duque III for his “failure of leadership” in addressing the coronavirus crisis. Among the Senators are many confidants of Duterte, who refused to dismiss Duque. The Senate is expected to address the resolution once the legislative chamber resumes session on 4 May. [ABS-CBN]

In another development, was Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia resigned, saying he had “differences in development philosophy” with some Cabinet members. He later told the media that he has stood for a “modified quarantine” to revive the economy but other members of the Cabinet disagreed with him. [CNN Philippines]

After all, The Diplomat writes, “it was Duterte who rejected the proposed travel ban, repeatedly belittled the seriousness of COVID-19, urged Filipinos to go out and travel around the country [see the video here: Rappler on YouTube], and failed to provide the public with accurate and comprehensive information about the pandemic and the government’s response.” [The Diplomat]

Philippines: Heavy fights with Islamist rebels in Mindanao lead to 11 soldiers killed

(ls) In the Philippines’ southern island of Mindanao, Philippine troops have clashed with dozens of Abu Sayyaf armed fighters allied with the ISIL (ISIS) group, leaving 11 soldiers dead and 14 others wounded. The group is an offshoot of the decades-long separatist unrest in the south. The violence has eased since the largest Muslim rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, signed a peace deal with the government that replaced a Muslim autonomous area with a more powerful and better-funded region. [Al Jazeera]

Singapore: Neglected workers’ dormitories have become Covid-19 clusters

(ls) After initially being praised for its Covid-19 management, Singapore has seen sharply rising numbers of infections throughout the last week. These are largely tied to clusters in migrant workers’ dormitories. The development has raised the awareness for the crammed conditions and sub-standard hygiene in the respective facilities on the outskirts of the city. Most of the workers sleep on bunk beds, with 12 to 20 people in one room with limited ventilation. Hundreds of men share communal toilets and showering facilities. [South China Morning Post]

Singapore’s migrant workers, who are largely from India and Bangladesh, are an essential part of the work force. They usually pay large sums in agency fees to work in the city state and are often reluctant to complain for fear of being deported. [The Guardian]

The Southeast Asian war on “fake news” in times of Covid-19

(ls) Last week’s edition of Asia in Review pointed to the limitations of free speech in Asia by the increasingly strict enforcement of anti-falsehood legislation during the Covid-10 crisis. [Asia in Review, No. 15, April/2020, 2] The fight against “fake news” is particularly pronounced in Southeast Asia. [NPR]

CPG’s Lasse Schuldt writes that the corona crisis has put previously created laws to practice and sparked additional legislative activity. Though the professed goal is to prevent public panic, he argues that recent enforcement actions reveal the complete irrelevance of any panic indicators; a falsehood’s panic potential is simply assumed. As a result, an abstract panic threat is fought with concrete measures: Arrests and criminal prosecutions. [CPG Website]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

USA needs to boost its navy to counter China in the Asia-Pacific

(dql) Earlier AiR reported on the US Indo-Pacific Command’s request for more than 20 billion USD in additional spending between 2021 and 2026 to strengthen deterrence against China after the coronavirus pandemic ebbs. [AiR No. 14, April/2020, 1] 

Ted Gover at [Straits Times] confirms the need for the abovementioned additional spending, but demands even more money in order to “rearm America in key areas where the US is currently deficient in deterring a rising China,” eyeing in particular the US navy which need to have enough money to “increase shipbuilding of sufficient numbers and quality to continue to allow for the US to operate beyond the second island chain in the Pacific and to address regional coercion by China.”

China-Russia show united front against US attacks on China over pandemic 

(dql) Demonstrating a united front against attacks on China over the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese President Xi and his Russian counterpart Putin in a joint statement rejected attempts to blame Beijing for delaying informing the world about the coronavirus, with Putin praising "consistent and effective actions" of Beijing "which allowed the epidemiological situation in the country to stabilise." [Moscow Times]

The statement comes as US President Trump reiterates attacks on China over the pandemic, questioning China’s transparency over the coronavirus outbreak, doubting Chinese number of cases and deaths and confirming an investigation whether the virus escaped a laboratory in Wuhan in which it had been created. Adding to this, Secretary of State Pompeo called on China to grant the United States access to the Wuhan laboratory “so that we can determine precisely where this virus began.” [The Guardian] [South China Morning Post]

In a latest development, Germany has also urged Beijing to be more transparent about the origin of the virus. The move follows similar steps taken by France and the UK. However, Berlin and Paris have distanced themselves from Washington’s claims on virus/lab-link. [Channel News Asia]

China-Russia military alliance on horizon?

(dql) Against the background of a looming failure to extend the US-Russian New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) of 2010 which terminates in February 2021 because Washington insists on including China in the treaty extension, a military alliance between Russia and China appears as a possibility on the horizon, writes Dimitri Simes at [Nikkei Asian Review] who argues that the announced deployment of US missiles in East Asia “would prompt Russia and China to abandon longstanding reservations about a formal military alliance.” 

Latest statements of US Sectretary of State Pompeo seem to confirm Simes’ concern about a failure to extend the New START. In a phone talk with his Russian counterpart Lavrov, Pompeo on last Friday insisted that any future arms control talks must focus on an American proposal for a new arms control accord that includes Russia and China.

With its arsenal of an estimated 300 nuclear weapons being far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, China has persistently rejected such talks. [Reuters]

For a comparison between US and European efforts on nuclear modernisation to enhance deterrence capacity against China and Russia see [defence.nridigital].

Japan: Abe sends offering to Yasekuni shrine

(dql) Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sent a ritual offering to Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo, which commemorates those Japanese who died in the wars involving Japan and is seen by Asian neighbours as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism as the shrine lists also 1,068 convicted war criminals. [Mainichi]

In response to this move, South Korea expressed “deep disappointment and regret” while China called on Japan “to take concrete actions to win back trust from its Asian neighbors and the international community, and to face up to and deeply repent of its history of aggression.” [Korea Herald] [ECNS]

South Korea: US ambassador reveals that long-range surveillance drones arrived

(ef) The US ambassador to South Korea has revealed that additional long-range surveillance drones have been shipped to South Korea. This reveal is seen as controversial as South Korea usually does not publicize such information because it could draw North Korea’s ire. A previous similar announcement was used by Pyongyang to justify ballistic missile tests. [The Diplomat]

US spy planes monitor North Korea

(dql) Two US spy planes, the US Air Force’s E-8C and Navy’s P-3C, have been spotted flying over South Korea, in what appears to be a mission to monitor North Korea.

In response to Pyongyang’s stepped-up military moves amid stalled denuclearization negotiations, Washington has deployed a series of reconnaissance aircraft in South Korea. [Korea Herald]

U.S. military plane spotted near Taiwan's airspace 

(dql) A United States military reconnaissance plane was flying near Taiwan's southern airspace last Friday. It was the ninth time U.S. military aircraft have been observed operating near Taiwan in April. [Taiwan News]

US-India: US proposes additional anti-ship missile sales to India 

(jk) In addition to the MK 54 Lightweight Torpedoes which provide capabilities to conduct anti-submarine warfare missions reported on last week [Asia in Review No. 15, April/2020, 2], the US Congress has also been notified that the US wants to sell Boing-manufactured Harpoon air-launched anti-ship missiles, taking the anti-ship missile package proposed for India to US$ 155 million.  

The sale is intended to increase India's deterrent capabilities "against regional threats and to bolster its homeland defence". The sale was initiated after a request for these type of weapons by the Indian government but is not yet approved by Congress. [Economic Times]

While anti-ship capabilities are mostly directed at China, Pakistan was quick to condemn the sale of advanced weapon systems to India which in their words regularly "violate[s] the ceasefire agreement". The sale, Pakistani officials hold, would destabilize the already volatile situation in South Asia. [Arynews]

India carrying out targeted strikes on terror launch pads along LoC 

(jk) Continuing the violence of the past weeks [e.g. Asia in Review No. 11, March/2020, 3] [Asia in Review No. 12, March/2020, 4] along the Line of Control, the Indian Defence Minister has said the army is carrying out targeted strikes against "infiltrators" and "terror launch pads" from Pakistan. [Economic Times] Ceasefire violations in the area have increased since India's announcement to abolish the special status of Jammu and Kashmir last year. 

India's defence exports rise over 5 times in 4 years

(jk) According to data provided by the Ministry of Defence's Department of Defence Production India increased its export of military equipment by more than a factor of five over the past four years. While remaining a major importer of defence equipment, India has issued several policies under Modi's "Made in India" campaign that have bolstered the defence industry and its exports. [Zeenews]

South China Sea: Paracel and Spratly islands become Chinese administrative districts

(ls) At a time when accusations that China is exploiting diverted attention during the Covid-19 pandemic to assert its presence in the South China Sea have become prevalent [Asia in Review, No. 14, April/2020, 1], China has announced that it has established an administrative district on the Paracel islands and another on the Spratly islands, the two districts being under the control of China’s Sansha city. In response, Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry said that the move “seriously violated Vietnam’s sovereignty”. The development shows how the island groups are becoming legally embedded within Chinese administrative structure while there may be little that other claimants can do about that. [Reuters 1]

Meanwhile, a Chinese government survey ship, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, has moved south into waters 352 kilometres (218 miles) off the coasts of Brunei and Malaysia, north of Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and near waters claimed by both Vietnam and Malaysia. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said the ship was conducting normal activities. [Reuters 2]

For further insights into a possible overreach in China’s expansionist policy in the South China Sea see Richard Javad Heydarian at [Asia Times]. 

“Milk tea alliance” unites young Thai, HK and Taiwanese internet users against China

(ls) In unprecedented show of “online solidarity”, mostly young internet users from Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan have jointly rebutted what most observers considered concerted Chinese troll attacks on a Thai celebrity who had mistakenly referred to Taiwan as a country. The Diplomat recounts the events that led to the creation of the self-styled “milk tea alliance”, describing the internet’s unifying potential as opposed to bots, misinformation and media manipulation. [The Diplomat]

“This is the first transnational geopolitical Twitter war Thais have engaged in,” Prajak Kongkirati of Thammasat University’s Faculty of Political Science said. Meanwhile, also users in the Philippines took on the respective hashtag to attack Chinese action in the disputed South China Sea. Twitter is blocked in China and only accessible for those using virtual private networks or with official approval. [Reuters]

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