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Asia in Review

No. 18, May/2020, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s AiR issue amid hopes that we will be able to resume normal economic and social life in the not-too-distant future as a more and more countries across the globe relax lockdown rules and restrictions.   

I wish you an informative read.

With greetings from the AiR team,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Protests resumed

(dql) The past week saw a number of small groups of protesters gathering at different places in Hongkong to express their protest against the government. While small in numbers, the gatherings signal a resurgence of the anti-government protest movement which has come to a halt since the outbreak of the coronavirus. [The Diplomat] [South China Morning Post]

The resumption of protests is a response to signals for a more assertive position of the city government and Beijing towards democratic developments in Hong Kong in the past weeks, including the arrest of more than a dozen high-profile pro-democracy figures over charges of partaking in un-authorized anti-government protests last year. [AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3] 

China: Journalist jailed for party-critical reporting

(dql) In move widely seen as an attempt to intimidate independent and critical reporting in China, a Chinese journalist was sentenced to 15 years in jail after a court found him guilty of “extortion, illegal business operations and bribery” as well as of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”, a catch-all for criticism of the party or the government. 

The journalist, a former employee of Chinese state-run media outlets, has published online commentaries and investigative reports on social media since 2015. [South China Morning Post] [Daily Mail]

The heavy sentence of 15 years imprisonment reflects the party's iron fist with which it exerts control over the press and media within the country. It also sends a powerful message to the international community as the conviction came just two days ahead of the World Press Freedom Day past Sunday and shortly after the release of the 2020 World Press Freedom Index of Reporters Without Borders in which China is ranked 177 out of 180 countries. [AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3] 

China: New cybersecurity rules 

(dql) In a move to strengthen control of the cyber space, China last week released new cybersecurity rules which will come into force on June 1 and under which companies classified as “operators of critical information infrastructure” are required to perform cybersecurity evaluations for vulnerabilities that could affect national security when buying networking products and services, including – among others – server equipment, mass storage devices, cloud computing services, and large-scale databases. In case risks are detected, operators are required to submit a cybersecurity review application to the government. [Technode] [Cyber Administration of China, for the rules in Chinese]

South Korea: National Assembly to vote on a bill on proposals for constitutional revision 

(ef) The National Assembly is set to vote on a bill to amend the constitution to permit the public to propose a constitutional amendment if they come up with one million signatures. The motion was submitted in March by nearly 150 lawmakers and 25 civic organizations. 

As the main opposition United Future Party, which holds 103 of the 300 parliamentary seats, announced that it will boycott the vote, the bill, supported by the ruling Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite party which together hold 180 seat, will not obtain the two-thirds majority of 200 votes required for a change of the constitution. [Yonhap] [Korea Times]

South Korea: National Assembly approves tougher online sex crimes bill

(ef) South Korea’s National Assembly passed a set of bills strengthening punishment for online sex crimes. Inter alia, the possession of illegally filmed sexual footage was criminalized and can now be punished by up to three years in prison or a fine of up to 30 million won (appr. 25.000 USD). Furthermore, the age of sexual consent was raised to 16 and sexual intercourse between adults and minors classified as statutory rape. [Yonhap 1] President Moon is expected to sign the bill into law in two weeks. [Korea Times] 

In a related move, the Cabinet approved a decree of the Ministry of Education banning anybody convicted for sexual crimes from taking the teacher recruitment exam. [Yonhap 2] 

The legal changes come a month after a public outcry and Human Rights Watch's call for a reform of South Korea’s criminal law to combat digital sex crimes in the context of the disclosure of an online platform aimed at sexually exploiting underage girls [AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5]. 

South Korea: Main opposition party in disarray over new leadership 

(dql) In a major blow to the main opposition United Future Party (UFP), Kim Chong-in, who as elected by the party delegates as interim leadership for four months until the next national convention scheduled for end of August, rejected his election as the party failed to revise the party’s constitution to meet his demands of an extensive term and far reaching powers. The failure is believed to be due to massive internal protest from senior party members who are not willing to bow to Kim’s demand and boycotted the meeting for the revision of the party constitution. [Korea Times] [Yonhap]

The UFP suffered a crushing defeat in the recent general elections and has been since struggling for a renewal of the party. [AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3]

Taiwan: Proposals for referendums on constitutional revisions/new constitution submitted

(dql) The Taiwan New Constitution Foundation (TNCF), a hard-line pro-independence group last week submitted two petitions to the Central Election Commission (CEC) proposing referendums on revising the constitution and drafting a new constitution for Taiwan, along with more than 3,000 signatures for each of the proposals which surpass the required number of signatures for the first in a three-stage process for holding a referendum. 

The two questions contained in the petitions are first, “Do you support the president in initiating a constitution reform process for the country?” and second, “Do you support the president in pushing for the establishment of a new constitution reflecting the reality of Taiwan?” [Focus Taiwan]

The proposals for the constitutional referendums and their wordings put President Tsai Ing-wen under pressure as the TNCF refers to her 2015 presidential campaign pledge to revise the constitution in accordance with Taiwan’s political reality, while at the same time Beijing was quick to warn that such referendums “will only push Taiwan towards an extremely dangerous abyss and bring an extremely serious catastrophe to Taiwanese compatriots.” [South China Morning Post] [Xingdao Global Times, in Chinese]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Nepal: Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli under great pressure but remains in power - with a little help from a friend? 

(jk) Continuing the pressures on PM Oli described in the previous Asia in Review, the past week saw a number of meetings between the various factions in the Nepal Communist Party looking for common ground. Even after withdrawing the ordinances on allowing political parties to split and easing the appointment of office bearers in the constitutional bodies, Oli stood to lose both his position as prime minister and party chair. [Asia in Review, No. 17, April/2020, 4]

The ruling Nepal Communist Party was formed after the merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre, with different factions now controlling various party institutions such as the Secretariat and the Standing and Central Committee. A Politburo has not yet been formed. The main rival faction, led by the second party chair and former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal recently launched a campaign calling for Oli to resign, with a third faction in play led by senior politician Madhav Kumar Nepal. Both Oli and Dahal have over the last week tried to convince Nepal to join their respective side, offering him various posts and making promises. In Parliament, of the party’s 174 Members "around 78-80 are on Oli’s side and around 35-40 on Nepal’s side. The Maoist faction has 53 lawmakers." [Kathmandu Post 1]

After it initially looked like Dahal and Nepal were set to push Oli from power, a last minute effort by Oli over the weekend seems to have secured him the premiership for now after he redistributed powers and positions within the party to different powerful faction leaders. Oli and Dahal in particular agreed to share power in that Oli is to focus on the government and Dahal on party affairs with "executive authority". Dahal's supporters followed his lead and withdrew their challenges against Oli. [Kathmandu Post 2]

An interesting international angle on the crisis last week was provided by the action of the Chinese ambassador to Nepal who "held a series of meetings with senior Nepal Communist Party leaders, expressing concern over the ongoing power play within the ruling party and seeking support to act as a bulwark against an international movement targeting China." 

Ambassador Hou’s series of meetings preceded the crucial ruling party Secretariat meeting on Saturday and the following events of the weekend where the crisis and Oli's resignation was eventually avoided. While the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu stated meetings were nothing but "regular working communications", the timing of the meetings as well as the fact that "the Foreign Ministry was not informed beforehand and no representative of it was present during the meetings" and as a result "no institutional records of the meetings [or] talking points" were made may raise eyebrows and seriously questions Chinese affirmations that they do not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. [Kathmandu Post 3]

Nepal’s Supreme Court reaffirms need to amend transitional justice law

(hg) Nepal's Supreme Court ruled again on the sensitive matter of amnesties for grave conflict-era crimes in context of the country’s civil war. Rejecting a government petition the court asserted the overriding interest in securing truth, justice, and compensation for the thousands of victims of abuses by both sides who are still left without relief. Background is a campaign to revise the 2014 Transitional Justice Act and ensure its implementation and eradicate those provisions allowing for amnesties even for severe crimes like torture, rape, and enforced disappearance. The Supreme Court struck down these amnesty provisions in February 2015 already, prompting the government to petition the court to overturn the ruling. This petition was now rejected. [Human Rights Watch] [Nepali Times] 

Bangladesh: Rohingya refugees sent to controversial island facility and many are still at sea  

(jk) Following the rescue of hundreds of Rohingya refugees from a boat that had been turned away by Southeast Asian nations recently [Asia in Review, No. 16, April/2020, 3] and the country’s decision to not allow the entry of another 500 Rohingya people on board two fishing trawlers amid "running out of our generosity” [Asia in Review, No. 17, April/2020, 4], a number of refugees have been relocated to a controversial facility on an island in the Bay of Bengal constructed last year. Authorities said they were afraid the group may be suffering from Covid-19. [South China Morning Post]

The facilities for 100,000 people were constructed on the islet "Bashan Char" about 40 kilometers off Bangladesh's coast in order to reduce the number of refugees in the border camps. Critics have claimed the islet is not safe and prone to natural catastrophes. Many Rohingya have spoken out against the relocation to the island for fear of not receiving any help in case of a natural disasters or severe storms. The UN has said an independent feasibility study needs to be carried out before any relocations could begin. [The Business Standard]

[Reuters] spoke to seven Rohingya survivors from a boat that spent months at sea and were refused to land at any country because of virus fears. They report on their horrific experiences and after overpowering the ship's crew, which cost the lives of some on board, they eventually returned to Bangladesh. Hundreds more stuck at sea. 

India: Religious freedom of "particular concern" according to US Commission 

(jk) The US Commission on International Religious Freedom observing religious freedom across the world is urging the U.S. State Department to designate India as a “country of particular concern.” It released an annual report pointing towards India’s poor record of treatment of religious minorities, which is echoed by a growing number of countries and organisations from the Middle East. [Al Jazeera]

India's Ministry of External Affairs called the commission's work “biased and tendentious". [The New York Times]

Sri Lanka: Opposition calls for convening parliament over public budget  

(jk) Sri Lanka’s opposition is demanding to reconvene parliament instantly as the current budget has only been authorised by legislators until April 30. Beyond that date, they claim President Rajapaksa does not have the power to make use of public funds. They urge a parliamentary sitting is therefore necessary, in particular in the light of the current public health crisis. [The Week]

Rajapaksa's office responded that they had no intention to reconvene parliament and will go ahead as planned with the election set for June 20. [Social News]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Covid-19 responses across ASEAN

(ls) The corona crisis continues to dominate Southeast Asian news. An overview of measures, successes and failures from across the region with commentary from political and security experts can be found in the [Bangkok Post].

Indonesia turns to domestic arms industry amid Covid-19 restraints

(hg) Amid delayed plans to acquire foreign arms because of the Covid-19 outbreak government and think tanks in Indonesia encourage local arms manufacturers to step up production capacities and develop the necessary technologies. [The Star] gives a detailed report on the related efforts to develop a more self-supporting arms industry. 

Malaysia: Federal government eases restrictions, not all states follow

(ls) The Malaysian federal government has allowed almost all economic sectors and businesses to reopen since 4 May 2020, subject to strict conditions. This came about a week earlier than previously announced. However, also under the new “conditional movement control order”, schools and daycare centers will remain closed, and mass social, cultural and religious gatherings are still prohibited. However, several state governments departed from the federal government’s exit strategy and kept stricter measures in place. About 500,000 Malaysians had signed an online petition demanding not to lift the prior “movement control order” yet. [Malay Mail] [Straits Times 1]

Despite the lifting of coronavirus-related measures, police and immigration officials arrested hundreds of migrant workers and refugees in so-called Covid-19 “red zones” in Kuala Lumpur. These are places or areas subject to “enhanced movement control orders”. The move has been criticized as it may further discourage these particular groups of the population to get tested. There are about 5.5 million migrant workers in Malaysia. [South China Morning Post 1]

Furthering current corona-related restrictions of free speech across Southeast Asia, the South China Morning Post journalist who reported on the arrests was told to report to the Malaysian police headquarters for violations of the Penal Code and the Communications Act. Communications and multimedia minister Saifuddin Abdullah, however, said that he would defend the journalist’s rights even though he disagreed with the article. [South China Morning Post 2]

Meanwhile, the government confirmed that the parliament’s initial sitting on 18 May will be a one-day session in order to help contain Covid-19. [Straits Times 2] The announcement of the one-day sitting had sparked serious criticism and raised concerns about its constitutionality. [Asia in Review, No. 16, April/2020, 3]

Philippines: Media and journalists under ever-increasing pressure

(ls) In the continued Southeast Asian “war on fake news” [Asia in Review, No. 16, April/2020, 3], the Philippine National Police started new investigations against dozens of people for “spreading unverified and false information on the Covid-19 outbreak” and committing cyber libel. [South China Morning Post] 

A joint report of media and journalists’ associations, published on 4 May 2020, points to the increasing restrictions and threats that Philippine reporters have been facing since January 2019. One practice referred to in the report is “red-tagging” by which journalists are publicly associated with Communist groups, which exposes them to threats to their lives. [Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism]

Philippines releases about 10,000 prisoners

(ls) In a move to prevent the further spread of Covid-19 in prisons, the Philippine Supreme Court has issued a directive to lower courts to release inmates awaiting trial in prison because they could not afford bail, others who were sentenced to jail for six months or below, as well as elderly and ailing prisoners. Overall, nearly 10,000 prisoners have been released. Many detention facilities are filled up to five or times their capacity, making social distancing impossible. Prison overcrowding has become a greater problem since President Rodrigo Duterte launched the “war on drugs” in 2016. [Al Jazeera]

Singapore: Parliament passes Parliamentary Elections (Covid-19 Special Arrangements) Act 

(ls) Singapore is getting prepared to conduct the next general elections under special arrangements due to the expected continuation of the Covid-19 outbreak. On Monday, parliament passed the Parliamentary Elections (Covid-19 Special Arrangements) Act, which allows voters who are subject to movement control orders to vote and excuses some others for not voting. Special polling stations will be set up for those serving their Stay-Home-Notices at designated facilities. The general election must be held by 14 April 2021. [Straits Times]

To what extent political parties will be able to campaign ahead of the election remains to be seen. Limited possibilities for public political campaigns have, for instance, provoked strong criticism against the Polish government, which is going ahead with presidential elections this week. A similar problem is expected in this November’s U.S. presidential election. Limitations on campaigns are expected to benefit incumbent office-holders as opposition candidates will have difficulty to get their messages across.

Thailand: New violence in the deep south 

(ls) After about a month of silence, new violence has occurred in Thailand’s deep south. During a raid by Thai security forces on Thursday, three suspected insurgents have been shot and killed. The operation in Pattani province was the first since the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) had declared in early April that it was ceasing all activities because of the coronavirus pandemic. This declaration had been dismissed by security forces. [Chiang Rai Times]

Two days after the raid, two men were shot and killed in Narathiwat province by gunmen who escaped. On Sunday, unidentified gunmen shot and killed two soldiers at a COVID-19 checkpoint in Pattani province. [Benar News]

Cambodian state of emergency law takes effect

(jn) Last Wednesday, acting head of state of Cambodia Say Chhum signed the state of emergency law though questions over its fast-track approval and implications of its broad wording continue to linger. Say Chhum stood in for King Norodom Sihamoni who had traveled to China for a medical visit. The National Assembly, the Senate and the Constitutional Council had all approved the bill unanimously last month. [Asia in Review, No. 17, April/2020, 4]

The law has engendered criticism among domestic and international observers – including the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Cambodia – that it is open to human rights abuse and that its relatively swift legislative process lacked any public debate and input of experts. A former lawmaker of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) said, while criticizing its obscure scope, that he was not against the emergency law per se, yet the current COVID-19 situation in Cambodia did not call for the declaration of a state of emergency. [Khmer Times] [VOA]

Should a state of emergency be declared in the near future, it is expected to further exacerbate the already difficult working environment for journalists during the pandemic since the government has been accused of taking advantage of the virus outbreak to crack down against opposition supporters and governments critics. 

Other than neighboring Thailand and Vietnam, his government did not order greater measures to be taken. Garment factories that were declared economically crucial stayed open. Despite the virus outbreak, the government also went ahead with the largest-ever joint military exercise with China. [RFA] [uca news]

Myanmar: Spread of COVID-19 cases against the backdrop of ongoing violence 

(jn) Myanmar has officially reported 151 cases and six deaths related to the outbreak of COVID-19 since the onset of the disease on March 23rd, the largest epicenter being Yangon. Limited testing capacities have raised the fear that the disease could have spread further than is known yet, posing the risk that the country could be overwhelmed soon. The challenge to tackle the coronavirus is made more difficult by the fact that Myanmar is one of the poorest nations in South East Asia with millions of people living in cramped housing where social distancing is virtually impossible. 

Under the leadership of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, the government has formed a civil-military “Emergency Response Committee”. Should the civil leadership feel the need to fall back upon the military’ resources, more human rights violations and intensifying local conflicts are to be feared, let alone an increased dominance of the still powerful military, the Tatmadaw. [The Diplomat]

At the same time, the outgoing UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Yanghee Lee, warned on Wednesday that the military may once again be committing crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine state, fearing a repeat of atrocities that have already subjected the country to accusations of genocide against the Rohingya minority. Lee said that the Tatmadaw have also expanded their campaign against minorities to the neighboring Chin state in the west of the country. A government spokesman rejected the accusations. 

Humanitarian agencies worry that the affected minority communities are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus, which could spread quickly in the cramped refugee camps with poor hygiene and no access to health care. Absent a coherent national response many dissident minorities have been left on their own as the government has not established contact with locally dominant armed groups, especially in the remote border regions. [The Guardian][Nikkei Asian Review] [Dhaka Tribune] [RFA]

Myanmar’s government equally faces criticism with regard to violations of freedom of expression and freedom of the press according to the domestic NGO Athan. Since Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) came into power in 2016, lawsuits have been filed against more than 1000 people for unlawfully criticizing the government, the military or members of parliament. [The Irrawaddy]

Vietnam cracks down on online dissidents 

(jn) In recent weeks Vietnam has jailed or sentenced Facebook users over unwanted postings on the network. Last week a man was given a prison sentence of 18 months for sharing a story on Facebook about the deadly Dong Tam protests in January that were directed against the construction of a military airport close Hanoi. He was found guilty of “abusing democratic freedoms to infringe upon the interests of the State, lawful rights and interests of organizations and/or citizens”. In another case, Vietnamese authorities sentenced a 25-year-old Facebook user to a five-year prison term on charges of spreading propaganda against the state for his online postings. [RFA 1] [RFA 2]

Facebook itself was criticized two weeks ago by domestic and international rights activists after it publicly admitted it had helped censoring posts critical of the government. It also became public that Vietnamese authorities had pressurized the social media giant into aiding its censorship campaign by taking offline Facebook’s local servers earlier this year until the company gave in to the demands to remove posts. [RFA 3] [RFA 4]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA economic de-coupling: Washington’s new export control rules 

(dql) In a move adding fuel to already existing high Sino-US tensions, the US Ministry of Commerce last week announced new rules which will tighten the export of certain sensitive technologies to China to prevent military end-users in China from obtaining those technologies. The rules cover a wide range of goods that will require review by regulators prior to obtaining approval for shipping and a definition of a military end-user based in China which is broad and covers private Chinese firms as well as state-owned enterprises with direct and indirect links to the People’s Liberation Army. [The Diplomat] [The National Law Review]

According to analysts, the move will accelerate the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies as China is expected to respond with efforts to 'de-Americanize' its supply chains . [South China Morning Post] [Technode]

Meanwhile, US President Trump has declared that the hard-fought trade deal was currently only of secondary importance compared the coronavirus pandemic and is considering measures to retaliate against China for its handling of Covid-19. According to sources familiar with the matter, measures under consideration include sanctions, new non-tariff trade restrictions, and a possible push for lifting China’s sovereign immunity which would pave the way for the US government and American citizens to file lawsuits seeking damages from China in US courts. [Channel News Asia]

In a latest development, reflecting an attempt to reduce supply chain reliance on China and to spur domestic manufacturing, President Trump is set to sign an executive order under which federal agencies are required to buy only American-made medical products. The order, according to Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro, will help spur lagging medical manufacturing in the US. [Reuters]

For further ideas on reducing the reliance of US supply chains in China current discussed in the Trump administration see [Aljazeera].

China’s supersonic stealth bomber possible ready this year

(dql) According to Chinese military sources, China’s new supersonic stealth bomber – the Xian H-20 – could be ready later this year. That would make China the third country after the US and Russia with the capacity to launch nuclear missiles from land, air, and sea.

Countries within Xian H-20’s strike range include – among others – the US allies Australia, Japan and South Korea. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines protests China’s ‘new’ districts in the South China Sea  

(dql) The Philippines last week lodged a strong protest against China’s establishment of the so-called Nansha and Xisha districts in the South China Sea put under the administration of China’s self-declared “Sansha City,” adding that China’s move “violate[s] Philippine territorial sovereignty.” [Rappler] [No. 16, April/2020, 3]

In a related development, fishermen’s associations in the Philippines and Vietnam protested China’s annual summer fishing ban in the South China Sea, urging their respective governments to oppose it. The protests come after China last Friday announced its annual moratorium on fishing within waters it claims jurisdiction over, including waters down to the 12th parallel of the South China Sea, encompassing the Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Different from previous years, China added that this year it would crack down on vessels violating the ban. China has previously abstained from arresting any fishermen from Vietnam and the Philippines, but have arrested Chinese fishing vessels for violating the ban. [Benar News] [Express]

Inter-Korean relations: Exchange of gunfire across DMZ

(ef) In violation of the Comprehensive Military Agreement of 2018, gunfire was exchanged at the Korean Demilitarized Zone in Cheorwon. In the morning hours of Sunday, South Korean soldiers heard gunshots and subsequently found four bullet marks on a guard post. Following the response protocol, South Korean soldiers issued a broadcast warning and fired 20 shots in response – 10 rounds each time. 

Thus far, North Korea has not explained the firing although there were apt possibilities to do so in a timely fashion. However, due to foggy conditions and the absence of tactical targets in sight, the South Korean military presumes that the firing was unintentional. No casualties were reported. [Korea Herald] [Korea Herald 2] [Korea Times]

It is the first reported exchange of gunfire between the North and South Korea along the border since 2017. It coincided with the reemergence of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who was absent for 20 days.

North Korea-USA relations: Pompeo reaffirms denuclearization mission

(ef) US Secretary of State reaffirmed the foreign policy goal of denuclearizing North Korea in order to ‘create a brighter future for North Korean people’. The statement came shortly after Kim Jong-un’s return to the public eye after 20 days ending rumors of the North Korean leader’s death. [Korea Herald 1] 

Meanwhile, two US Senators introduced legislation that would bar President Trump from taking military action against North Korea unless authorized by Congress or following a North Korean preemptive strike. [Korea Herald 3]

Kashmir: More fighting and deaths in the India-Pakistan border region 

(jk) Once again this past weekend saw gun battles and fatalities among Indian security forces and militants in Indian-administrated Kashmir. India regularly accuses Pakistan of training and sending militants across the border to launch attacks and support a Kashmiri separatist movements. India's army chief reiterated that Pakistan is still following an agenda of pushing terrorists into Kashmir and that India will respond appropriately and with "precision" to any acts of cross-border misadventure after this weekend's fights. [India Today] In a recent article in a research journal of the Pakistan Army, a Pakistani General firmly lies the fault of the tensions at India's feet and describes Kashmir as a “nuclear flashpoint”. [WION]

More than 30 militants and several Indian security forces have died alone since the start of the lockdown from late March in "near-daily cross-border firing between India and Pakistan". [The Straits Times] April has been the deadliest month in Kashmir since August last year when article 370 was abrogated. [The Print]

In J&K itself, many of the "security measures" initially imposed after scrapping Article 370 from the constitution, such as restrictions on internet services and detention of senior mainstream political leaders continue unabated. Last week, the J&K administration extended the restriction on high-speed internet "to curb uploading, downloading and circulation of provocative videos, guard against rumour-mongering/fake news, prevent the use of encrypted messaging and VOIP services for infiltration and coordinating terror activities.” [Observer Research Foundation]

Analyses of recent South China Sea standoffs 

(ls) Several standoffs between Chinese, Malaysian, Vietnamese and American ships in the South China Sea over the last weeks [Asia in Review, No. 16, April/2020, 3] [No. 14, April/2020, 1] have shifted back the focus on this volatile region. Recent analyses evaluate the incidents and point to Southeast Asian countries’ situation of being caught up between major global powers with opposing interests while at the same time defending their own claims to territory and resources. [Foreign Policy] [The Diplomat]

Finalization of Malaysia-Singapore rapid train deal postponed 

(ls) The rail-link project that would link Malaysia’s Johor with Singapore has been delayed due to limited negotiations in recent weeks because of corona-related movement restrictions. The deal shall now be signed until the end of July. The project was suspended last year after Malaysia’s then-government under prime minister Mahatir said it wanted to review major deals. Since then, the project costs have been cut. [Reuters]

Is the Philippines-US Defense Treaty at stake?

(hg) Since 1951, the Philippines have been one of the US’ core allies in Asia-Pacific, thus members of the so-called “San Francisco System”, also including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, and New Zealand. After bilateral relations have become strained under the Duterte administration, the Philippine’s President has now announced that the partnership must come to an end: “It’s about time we rely on ourselves. We will strengthen our own defenses and not rely on any other country.” 

For the history of the security partnership and the development, significance and consequences of its more recent deterioration see [Global Risk Insights]. 

Philippines cleared to buy US attack helicopters 

(hg) The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) of the US Department of Defense, which is in charge of arms export control, cleared the Philippines to buy six attack helicopters, either the Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian or Bell AH-1Z Viper. The proposed deals would each also include equipment, weapons, spares, training, support, and other services. 

Stunning is the price divergence though with the Apache deal valued at around USD1.5 billion and the Viper around USD450 million. An obvious explanation for the huge discrepancy is lacking yet. [Janes]

For the Philippine Air Force (PAF), the six new helicopters would provide a significant reinforcement. 

The DSCA notification is, however, only the necessary condition for a deal if Manila decides to eventually conclude with a US company. Once cleared by Congress then, the sale would enter negotiations, during which quantities and costs can still shift. Anyway, Manila is also considering buying the Turkish-made T129 ATAK instead of an American product. [Defense News]

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