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June 22, 2021 - Brief Issue 217

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Former U.S. FDA Chief, Models Predict Fall Surge from Delta Variant (Health & Science)

U.S. CDC: Young Adults - Least Likely to be Vaccinated, Losing Interest in Vaccination (Health & Science)

Moderna to Expand Production to Work on Vaccine Boosters, Expand Supply for Other Countries (Health & Science)

Canada Announces Border Reopening Plans (Around the World)

Europe Watches U.K. to See if Delta Variant Will Cancel Summer Vacations (Around the World) 

New Book: Trump Mused About Sending U.S. Citizens to Guantanamo as Part of Covid Response (U.S. Government & Politics)

United Nations Projects Foreign Investment Boom for the U.S. (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Brought Major Changes to the Economy, Fed Chair Powell Warns About Limits of Data Given Changes (U.S. Economy)

Madison Square Garden In-Person Concert - Featuring the Foo Fighters - Shows Glimpse of What Post-Pandemic Concerts May Look Like (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,554,319 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 602,092 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 379,003,410 vaccine doses, with 53.4% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 45.2% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 178,788,247 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,873,285 deaths.

Former U.S. FDA Chief, Models Predict Fall Surge from Delta Variant 

The more contagious variant and slowing vaccination rates could combine to spur a surge in the coronavirus cases this fall, said former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb on Sunday (WaPo). Gottlieb cited one projection that forecasted an increase in infections as high as 20% of last winter’s peak, though he did call that an “aggressive estimate” and doesn’t “think it’ll be quite that dire.” But Gottlieb did warn that states with low vaccination rates were already showing a concerning rise in cases as the Delta variant spreads. “So Connecticut, for example, where I am, shows no upsurge of infection, but Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri show very substantial upsurges of infections. That’s based entirely on how much population-wide immunity you have based on vaccination,” Gottlieb said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. Some of those states Gottlieb listed have fully vaccinated less than 35% of residents, compared to states where vaccine uptake is higher, like Vermont and Connecticut where over 80% of residents have been vaccinated (CNN). 

U.S. CDC: Young Adults - Least Likely to be Vaccinated, Losing Interest in Vaccination

Young adults are the population least likely to be vaccinated in the United States, yet their interest in getting vaccinated is waning, the Washington Post reports (WaPo). The Post writes, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed adult vaccination rates by age through May 22, finding 80 percent of adults older than 65 had been immunized compared with just 38.3 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds. The percentage of people getting one shot per week stalled after vaccine eligibility opened to all adults in April and has continued to decline. From April 19 to May 22, the percentage of 18- to 29-year-olds being vaccinated dropped from 3.6 percent a week to 1.9 percent a week. For 30- to 49-year-olds, the percentage getting a shot each week declined from 3.5 percent to 1.7 percent.” Notably among young adults, the weekly vaccination rate has never reached the peak level among those older than 65.

Moderna to Expand Production to Work on Vaccine Boosters, Expand Supply for Other Countries

The Wall Street Journal reports that Moderna is adding two production lines at its plant that produces the company’s Covid-19 vaccine as it prepares to produce vaccine booster and expand the available supply of vaccines for countries beyond the United States (WSJ). The Journal reports, “At a site brimming with new steel production tanks and heavy equipment, construction workers in neon safety vests are working to get one new line up and running by fall and the other by early 2022. The additions will help Moderna increase overall production capacity by 50% at its plant in the Boston suburb of Norwood, company officials said.” Moderna is also expanding production outside of the United States and its CEO stated, “Our plan and our hope is that, as soon as the U.S. has enough doses, we’re allowed to export so we can help as many countries as we can around the world.”

Bonus Read: “Scientists battle over the ultimate origin story: Where did the coronavirus come from?,” (WaPo).

Around the World

Canada Announces Border Reopening Plans 

On Monday Canada laid out details for reopening the border with the United States starting on July 5 for fully vaccinated citizens, residents, and other eligible individuals. While the initial loosening of restrictions is a welcome sign of returning to normalcy, the Canadian government has not announced a timeline for when it will allow nonessential foreign travelers to enter the country. "I understand the frustration of people who want certainty around what will happen next," Health Minister Patty Hajdu told a press conference Monday during which government officials were pressed repeatedly for specific targets (Politico). "Of course, the virus has thrown us a number of curve balls over the last year and a half." Hajdu did note a significant milestone for the country to aim for: full vaccination of at least 75% of Canada’s population. 

Europe Watches U.K. to See if Delta Variant Will Cancel Summer Vacations 

Holidaymakers across Europe are cautiously optimistic about their summer travel plans, but many health experts and officials are keeping an eye on the U.K.’s progress against the Delta variant of the coronavirus for hints at how the bloc could deal with the strain (Politico). The Delta variant is sweeping across the U.K., pushing infection rates since mid-May to a high of 11,007 last Thursday even though 60% of adults have had two doses of Covid-19 vaccine and 80% have had one dose. The Delta variant accounts for 99% of infections and prompted the government to delay a full reopening in England until mid-July. European health officials are waiting to see if the high number of infections translates to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. Some countries, like Germany, Belgium, and Ireland, have introduced stricter entry requirements for travelers from the U.K., like additional quarantine and testing measures.

"We’re very focused on the U.K.,” said Steven Van Gucht, a Belgian virologist serving as the federal government’s COVID-19 spokesperson and head of viral diseases at the national public health institute Sciensano. “We’re waiting to see if the U.K. will be able to control this outbreak, what kind of measures they use. But we’re also monitoring the situation in Belgium." Politico writes, “most of Europe is seeing falling infection rates, there are some pockets where cases are once again climbing, including Malta and Iceland — but that's coming off of very low rates to start with. Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, said it's hard to say how much this rise comes from variants, in part because sequencing samples is limited.”

Colombia Ravaged by Virus, Protests 

Coronavirus cases and deaths are surging in Colombia where a dearth of vaccines have led to widespread protests. The official number of deaths due to Covid-19 just surpassed 100,000, making Colombia the tenth country to pass the grim milestone (NYT). On Monday, Colombia reported 648 deaths in the past 24 hours, a record high that’s a result of cases steadily climbing for months. Public anger over the crises and the government’s handling of it, including pandemic-related tax reforms, has intensified and demonstrations have been resulting in clashes with the police. There’s been an increase in reports of police brutality, with officers beating, detaining, and even killing protestors.

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “America is ready to return to normal. Biden’s CDC chief isn’t so sure,” (Politico).

New Book: Trump Mused About Sending U.S. CItizens to Guantanamo as Part of Covid Response

A new book on the handling of the pandemic by Washington Post journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta reports that President Trump mused about sending U.S. citizens located in Asia to Guantanamo Bay to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, as White House officials debated whether to bring infected Americans home for care, President Donald Trump suggested his own plan for where to send them, eager to suppress the numbers on U.S. soil. ‘Don’t we have an island that we own?’ the president reportedly asked those assembled in the Situation Room in February 2020, before the U.S. outbreak would explode. ‘What about Guantánamo?’ ‘We import goods,’ Trump specified, lecturing his staff. ‘We are not going to import a virus.’” The book, based on interviews with more than 180 people, is set to publish on June 29, and the Post examined a copy. 

Biden Administration Cancels Plan to Share 55 Million AstraZeneca Shots Globally, Will Replace with Vaccines Approved for Use in the United States

On Monday, the Biden Administration announced that it no longer plans to provide 55 million shots of the AstraZeneca vaccine with other countries (Politico). The decision comes as the AstraZenca vaccine has faced problems at production facilities and as it remains without emergency use authorization in the United States. The administration plans to replace the cancelled donation with shots of vaccines currently approved for use in the U.S. Politico reports, “the FDA is still reviewing whether AstraZeneca doses produced at a Baltimore plant are safe to send abroad, and the country meanwhile has built up a steady supply of other vaccines used in the U.S. inoculation campaign.”

Senator Menendez Renews Push for 9/11 Like Pandemic Commission

Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) is renewing his push for a 9/11 commission style commission on the pandemic and the United States’ handling of it (WaPo). He introduced legislation in Fall 2020 along with Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), but the legislation didn’t move forward at that time. At a press conference to push the idea, Senator Menendez stated, “This is not about pointing fingers; it is about identifying what went right, what went wrong, learning from our mistakes and making sure we do not repeat them.” Despite bipartisan support, some supporters of a commission worry it will be difficult to establish, noting the partisan split that stalled efforts to have a commission to examine the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Stocks Rebound as Dow Gains More Than 500 Points,” (WSJ). 

United Nations Projects Foreign Investment Boom for the U.S.

United Nations figures published on Monday suggest that the United States will see a boom in foreign investment as its economy recovers from the impact of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “According to U.N. figures published Monday, overseas investments by businesses around the world fell by a third in 2020 from the previous year. The U.S. recorded a 40% fall in investment but narrowly held on to its long-held position as the top destination ahead of China. The U.N. in January estimated that the U.S. had lost the top slot. For 2021 and 2022, the U.N. expects the U.S. to cement its leading position, with China in the second spot, as overseas investors expand capacity to meet huge post-pandemic demand.” Meanwhile, hopes are growing for a strong economic recovery with the Federal Reserve projecting the U.S. will have 7% growth this year.

Pandemic Brought Major Changes to the Economy, Fed Chair Powell Warns About Limits of Data Given Changes

Despite signs of economic recovery, the pandemic wrought substantial changes to the U.S. economy, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is cautioning that such changes and the unpredictability they bring should limit the confidence people place in interpreting data about any recovery and its character (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “The U.S. economy is emerging from the coronavirus pandemic with considerable speed but markedly transformed, as businesses and consumers struggle to adapt to a new landscape with higher prices, fewer workers, new innovations and a range of inconveniences, adding, “What Americans are encountering, though, is almost unrecognizable from just 16 months ago. Prices are up. Housing is scarce. It takes months longer than normal to get furniture, appliances and numerous parts delivered. And there is a great dislocation between millions of unemployed workers and millions of vacant jobs.” On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned, “This is an extraordinarily unusual time. And we really don’t have a template or any experience of a situation like this.” He added, “We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data.” Among the substantial changes that may increase uncertainty is the growing role of remote work. The Post notes, “Nearly a quarter of workers are likely to work at least a day or two from home each week, the McKinsey Global Institute predicts. And e-commerce, which grew three times faster last year than in prior years, shows few signs of ebbing.” Concerns have emerged over the potential for an inflation crisis as well as over possible housing and rental crises due to high home prices during the pandemic. Meanwhile, workers are increasingly exercising their power to demand better wages and conditions. These and other changes, including potentially a greater emphasis on automation, are contributing to a high level of uncertainty over the future of the economic recovery as well as growing debates over specific economic issues.

Bonus Read: “As Lumber Prices Fall, the Threat of Inflation Loses Its Bite,” (NYT).

U.S. Society

Madison Square Garden In-Person Concert, Featuring the Foo Fighters,  Shows Glimpse of What Post-Pandemic Concerts May Look Like

On Sunday, the Foo Fighters played Madison Garden, in the 20,000 person arena’s first full capacity in-person concert in more than 15 months (WSJ). The concert may provide a glimpse as to what concerts may end up looking like as the U.S. starts to open up. The Wall Street Journal writes, “social distancing was out. Singing along with a roaring, maskless crowd to Foo Fighters hits like ‘Learn to Fly’ was in.” The concert required audience members to have proof of vaccination, a controversial practice that is part of the reason why many in the industry are watching the reaction to the concert as they gauge next steps, according to the Journal. Beyond that, the Journal writes, “Inside the arena, the scene was surprisingly familiar. A few venue staff wore masks and there were plenty of hand-sanitizer stations, but the vast majority of fans, who shelled out between $50 and $119 for tickets, didn’t; they formed the normal lines to buy hot dogs and beer, along with $50 hoodies and $30 T-shirts, using cashless options for purchases. While Covid-19 rages on in some parts of the world, the feeling inside Madison Square Garden was that New York City had turned the corner.”

Analysis & Arguments

Anthony Fauci discusses the lab leak theory and the release of his emails with the New York Times’ Kara Swisher (NYT).

Timothy McLaughlin writes on how a lack of vaccines has forced many Asian countries to continue to rely upon suppression strategies (Atlantic).

2017 New America Fellow Mara Hvistendahl writes on her visit to a Chinese lab at the center of the biosafety debate and what it reveals about the Covid origins debate (Intercept).

Derek Thompson discusses whether workers’ increased assertiveness vis-a-vis their bosses will be a lasting change or is just a pandemic fluke (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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