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September Jobs Report, Fed October Minutes in Focus This Week; Kugler Left Fed After Disclosure of Trades
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Now that the longest ever U.S. government shutdown has finally ended, attention is turning to when key data will be released following a string of delays as investors remain uncertain over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. This week, minutes from the October Fed meeting on Wednesday will be closely scrutinized and the government on Thursday will release the first backlogged monthly jobs report, for the month of September. Other data due include purchasing managers’ figures and the University of Michigan final consumer confidence survey for November on Friday. Meanwhile, new disclosures show that former Fed governor Adriana Kugler made several stock transactions that violated the central bank's policies, prompting an ethics probe.
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September Jobs Report to Come Thursday
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Photo: Lauren Petracca/Bloomberg News
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The reopened federal government will on Thursday release the first backlogged monthly jobs report, for the month of September. And a flood of other data is due to start flowing soon.
There is pent-up demand for new numbers after the longest shutdown on record—topping six weeks—delayed a critical batch of indicators that economists, analysts and investors track closely to judge the health of the economy. These include federal reports on the job market, inflation, economic growth and spending.
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Kugler Resignation From Fed Board Followed Disclosures of Improper Stock Trades
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Adriana Kugler, a former Fed governor, reported numerous stock sales and purchases on her annual financial disclosure forms that violated central bank policies and prompted the Fed to refer the matter to its inspector general this year. The forms were made public by the Office of Government Ethics on Saturday.
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Will Trump’s Trade War Break America’s Addiction to Cheap Stuff?
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As a high-schooler in the 1950s, Kay Washburn babysat for 50 hours to afford her $25 dream dress. After spotting the moss green, knee-length frock with matching bolero jacket in the window of her local J.J. Newberry’s five-and-dime store, she worked for a month and a half to pay it off in installments, wearing it for years until it all but disintegrated.
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White House Hunts for Ways to Lower the Cost of Living
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Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending
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Bonds Are Heading for the Best Year Since 2020
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Almost everything has lined up for bonds lately. The Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. Jobs growth and consumer spending are slowing, keeping hopes for further cuts alive, but not pointing to an imminent recession that would threaten corporate balance sheets. Inflation pressure has continued to moderate, despite fears that President Trump’s tariffs will drive prices higher. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned around 6.7% in 2025, accounting for price changes and interest payments. That puts it on pace for the best year since 2020.
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How Building Affordable Housing Became Hottest Game in L.A.
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Key Developments Around the World
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EU Lowers Growth Outlook for 2026
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Swiss Economy Contracts as Central Bank Weighs Negative Rates
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Switzerland’s economy contracted in the third quarter of the year as sky-high U.S. tariffs kicked in, a result that raises pressure on the country’s central bank to cut interest rates below zero.
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Average U.K. House Asking Prices Fall in November as Pre-Budget Blues Continue
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The average price of a U.K. home going on the market for sale fell in November, ahead of the U.K. government’s budget announcement due later in the month, according to Rightmove.
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Japan’s Economy Contracts for First Time in Six Quarters
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Canada Factory Sales Rise to Highest Level in Seven Months
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Chile Vote Positions Country for Trump-Era Right Turn
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Chileans rallied behind hard-line conservatives in elections Sunday as rising anger over crime and immigration pushes the mineral-rich country to the right, setting the stage for a possible alignment with President Trump.
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Why Every Company Suddenly Wants to Become a Bank
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WSJ
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8:30 a.m.: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
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8:30 a.m.: Import & Export Price Indexes
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at Kogod School of Business Alan Meltzer Speaker Series event
6 p.m.: FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Global Perspectives event
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U.S. Labor Market Data Key for Fed's Decision in December
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Weaker labor market data in the U.S. could prompt an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, even as policymakers are divided about the move, says Navellier's Louis Navellier in a note. Payrolls firm ADP reported that 11,250 private jobs a week were shed by U.S. companies in the four weeks ending Oct. 25. "This means that the Fed may be forced to cut key interest rates if both ADP and the Labor Department report poor payroll data," he says. The federal government shutdown likely hindered private-sector job growth due to the fact that furloughed federal workers were likely being cautious, he says. "So, it is possible that private sector job growth will improve as the federal government reopens." — Emese Bartha
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Dollar Could Benefit From U.K., French Fiscal Concerns
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The dollar could strengthen by the year-end on the back of adverse trends abroad including fiscal worries in the U.K. and France, Macquarie strategists say in a note. Reports that U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves could scrap plans to raise income taxes in the Nov. 26 budget triggered fresh fiscal sustainability concerns, weakening sterling. Uncertainty over France's 2026 budget also remains an issue with key components of the fiscal plan still stuck in negotiations, the strategists say. "Another round of protests and strikes could impair economic activity in France, just as it did in the late summer." This could hurt the euro. — Renae Dyer
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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