Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used last year's Jackson Hole gathering to indicate rate cuts were coming. This year, he is unlikely to provide a clear signal of easing ahead, according to some analysts. That's even though traders are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut next month as a near-certainty, following recent inflation data and weak U.S. jobs growth.

What will Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signal about interest rates at this year's Jackson Hole gathering?

The central-bank gathering has sometimes been a venue for marking shifts in Fed policy, and a year ago, Powell used it to signal rate cuts were coming. This year, however, some analysts say the Fed chair's Friday morning speech is unlikely to give a clear signal of easing ahead.

The gap between shorter- and longer-dated U.S. borrowing costs is widening, reflecting investors’ conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates even as inflation looks set to quicken. In bond-market terms, the yield curve—which shows differences in yields for bonds of varying maturities—is steepening.

8:30 a.m.: New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
10 a.m.: Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

A year ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference to set the central bank firmly on the path of autumn rate cuts. "We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," Powell said in that speech. "The time has come for policy to adjust." The remarks left little doubt that the Fed would cut rates at its September meeting, and it did so definitively, lowering them by a half percentage point. This year, markets fully expect a September cut but Powell may speak more cautiously, economist Ed Yardeni writes in a note. "Odds are that he will be more of an owl--waiting and watching--than either a hawk or a dove," Yardeni writes. "Our hunches are that inflation will be hotter than expected and payrolls will be better than expected" before the September meeting, Yardeni adds, and if so, the Fed could approach the decision more cautiously. — Matt Grossman

• Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were mixed on Tuesday as the sector focuses on the chances for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. (Barron's)
• U.S. investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowed to a 25-year low on Monday, as investors seek to secure attractive yields ahead of expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, says UBS Global Wealth Management. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• Executives doing business in India are used to labyrinthine red tape and mounds of paperwork. Those bureaucratic hurdles extend to grabbing a beer after work.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.