Is this email difficult to read? View it in a web browser. ›

The Wall Street Journal ProThe Wall Street Journal Pro
Central Banking Pro Central Banking Pro

Fed Chair Powell Testimony and New Inflation Data in Focus This Week

By Roshan Fernandez

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would maintain its wait-and-see approach, while the June Summary of Economic Projections showed a median of two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, unchanged from March’s projections.

Powell will be in the spotlight again this coming week as he heads to Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday to deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. President Trump once again called on the Fed chair to cut interest rates after the FOMC opted not to do so this past Wednesday.

Friday’s inflation update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be the key economic release of the week, while a bevy of data will further inform us on the state of a sluggish housing market.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Monday, S&P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index on Tuesday, while the Census Bureau reports new home sales on Wednesday. The NAR on Thursday reports pending home sales.

And on Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the personal consumption expenditures price index.

 

Top News

Fed’s Waller Suggests Support for a July Cut

Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could be positioned to cut interest rates at its next meeting in July, notwithstanding potential inflation pressures caused by new tariffs.

In a Friday morning interview with CNBC, Waller said the Fed should “look through” one-time price increases from tariffs and instead respond to the underlying trend in inflation, which has been cooling.

 

U.S. Economy

Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Gets Slimmed Down in Senate

President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is getting smaller just as Republicans head into a crucial week, after the Senate’s rules arbiter decided several controversial provisions don’t qualify for the special procedure the GOP is using to bypass Democratic opposition.

Philadelphia Area Factory Activity Remains Subdued

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area contracted at a similar pace this month, with a worsening view of future activity, a monthly survey showed.

‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ at Checkout Will Factor Into Your Credit Score

Credit scores will start to take into account the hundreds of millions of loans tied to the “pay later” option at checkout.

 

Financial Regulation

PCAOB Elimination Plan Hits Roadblock in Senate

Republican lawmakers’ proposal to fold the U.S. audit watchdog into the Securities and Exchange Commission hit a roadblock when the Senate parliamentarian determined that including the provision in a broader tax bill violates rules around budget reconciliation.

Stablecoin World Opens Up to Smaller Banks

Thousands of Main Street banks struggling to keep up with crypto’s push into mainstream finance will soon get an opening to the rapidly evolving world of stablecoins.

Chinese Stocks and American Exchanges Head for a Breakup

A once-symbiotic melding of American capital with Chinese growth is unraveling. Wall Street’s welcome mat for Chinese stock listings long transcended rocky U.S.-China relations. Increasingly, the stock market relationship is succumbing to distrust between the world’s two largest economies.

 

Forward Guidance

Monday (all times ET)

9:45 a.m.: U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Flash Services PMI
10 a.m: Existing Home Sales
1:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook event
2:30 p.m.: FRB New York President John Williams and Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speak at Fed Listens roundtable discussion

Tuesday

8:30 a.m.: International Transactions
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9 a.m.: U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9 a.m.: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10 a.m.: State Employment and Unemployment
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence Index
10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell presents Monetary Policy Report to U.S. House Financial Services Committee
12:30 p.m.: FRB New York President John Williams speaks at NY CREATES and the Center for Economic Growth sponsored event in Albany
1 p.m.: Money Stock Measures
2 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks at launch of “State of the Nation's Housing” report
4 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr delivers welcoming remarks at Fed Listens event

 

Research

U.S. Average Home-Sale Prices Hit Record

The median U.S. home-sale price hit a record $396,500 during the four weeks ending June 15, up 1% year over year, Redfin says. Prices hit this high despite this spring's housing market being fairly cool because of high costs. The prices don't yet fully reflect the historic imbalance of sellers and buyers in today's market. While the median sale price is at an all-time high, it's roughly $26,000 lower than the median asking price of $422,238. Homes are selling for under asking price because there are many more sellers than buyers in today's market. That gives buyers the upper hand and often allows them to negotiate prices down, though it's still difficult for many people to afford homes because costs are so high. — Chris Wack

 

Basis Points

  • Business activity in Europe and some large economies in Asia continued to grow this month despite continued uncertainty about global trade policy and the threat of higher energy prices as conflict in the Middle East intensifies.
  • Iranian ballistic missiles are raining down on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel’s main airport is shut. Much of the workforce is moving in and out of bomb shelters. For most countries, such a wartime scenario would send investors fleeing and markets tanking. The opposite is happening.
  • The mood among British consumers improved a little this month, though global turmoil could see confidence darken again ahead. Consumer confidence improved two points to minus 18, according to research group GfK’s monthly index for June, published with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions.
  • Silver prices have surged nearly as much this year to the highest levels in more than a decade. That has spurred a rise in silver sellers who are flocking to coin shops, metals dealers and jewelers to cash in coins, silverware and bars.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.

 
Desktop, tablet and mobile. Desktop, tablet and mobile.
Access WSJ‌.com and our mobile apps. Subscribe
Apple app store icon. Google app store icon.
Unsubscribe   |    Newsletters & Alerts   |    Contact Us   |    Privacy Notice   |    Cookie Notice
Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 4300 U.S. Ro‌ute 1 No‌rth Monm‌outh Junc‌tion, N‌J 088‌52
You are currently subscribed as [email address suppressed]. For further assistance, please contact Customer Service at pro‌newsletter@dowjones.com or 1-87‌7-975-6246.
Copyright 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.   |   All Rights Reserved.
Unsubscribe