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March 1, 2021 - Brief Issue 159

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA Approves Emergency Use Authorization of Johnson & Johnson Single Dose Vaccine for Covid-19 (Health & Science)

WHO Investigates Theory of Coronavirus Spread through Frozen Meat (Health & Science)

Fauci Worried about Alarming Trend in Daily Coronavirus Cases across U.S. (Health & Science)

Reduced Coronavirus Testing in Large Metropolitan Areas Is Worrying Some Health Experts (Health & Science)

Chile Becomes Leader in Covid Inoculation Strategy (Around the World)

Health Experts Worry Tanzania’s Policies Will Undermine Africa’s Vaccine Campaigns (Around the World)

Israel to Vaccinate Palestinian Laborers (Around the World)

China to Provide Afghanistan with 400,000 Vaccine Doses (Around the World)

Czech Republic to Use Russian Vaccine Without EU Approval (Around the World)

Norway Tightens Lockdown (Around the World)

House Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package; Biden Urges Quick Senate Action (U.S. Government & Politics)

Justice Department Appeals Judicial Ruling Blocking Federal Eviction Moratorium (U.S. Government & Politics)

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem Criticizes Fauci at CPAC; Fauci Responds it's Easy to “Get a Standing Ovation by Saying I’m Wrong” (U.S. Government & Politics)

One Third of U.S. Military Personnel Rejecting Covid Vaccination (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fed Closely Aligns with Biden Administration on Policy (U.S. Economy)

What Another Year of Remote Work Bodes (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 28,605,661 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 513,091 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 350,678,484 tests and distributed 96.402.490 vaccine doses, with 75,236,003 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 114,107,291 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,531,627 deaths. At least 64,445,367 people have recovered from the virus.

FDA Approves Emergency Use Authorization of Johnson & Johnson Single Dose Vaccine for Covid-19

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved emergency use authorization for Johnson & Johnson’s single dose Covid-19 vaccine on Saturday (FDA, STAT, NYT, WSJ). As part of the rationale for approval, the FDA noted in its press release the randomized, placebo-controlled clinical study conducted in South Africa, Mexico, the United States, and several South American countries, which included 19,630 who received the vaccine and 19,691 who received a placebo. The study found that the vaccine was about 67 percent effective in preventing moderate to severe Covid-19 two weeks after vaccination, 66 percent effective in preventing moderate to severe Covid-19 four weeks after vaccination, and 77 percent effective in preventing severe Covid-19 two weeks after vaccination and 85 percent effective in preventing severe Covid-19 28 days after vaccination (FDA). According to reports by STAT, “the vaccine was slightly less effective against a virus variant first spotted in South Africa, known as B.1.351. Another variant, known as P.2., didn’t appear to erode the vaccine’s protection.” As we noted in a brief from last week, Johnson & Johnson currently has a study underway with 30,000 participants to test a two-dose vaccine. According to analysis by the New York Times, the Johnson and Johnson “vaccine’s 72 percent efficacy rate in the U.S. clinical trial site — a number scientists have celebrated — falls short of the roughly 95 percent rate found in studies testing the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.” However, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci said on Saturday, “Don’t get caught up, necessarily, on the number game, because it’s a really good vaccine, and what we need is as many good vaccines as possible,” adding, “Rather than parsing the difference between 94 and 72, accept the fact that now you have three highly effective vaccines. Period.” Bonus Read: “My Teens are Coronavirus Vaccine Guinea Pigs,” (NYT).

WHO Investigates Theory of Coronavirus Spread through Frozen Meat

The World Health Organization plans to release data in the coming days on its hypothesis surrounding the possibility of the coronavirus spreading through frozen meat. Simultaneously, theories in China are circulating that imported wildlife from other countries may have been the original starters of the pandemic. According to reports by Nature, “The WHO team does not think the pandemic started from transmission on food or packaging. However, the investigators consider it possible that an animal infected with the virus might have been the source of the large, early outbreak at the Huanan Seafood Market.” Some international studies have found evidence that frozen foods may be able to transmit the virus. For example, a study in China found that an outbreak in Beijing came from “viral particles from the same strain on cold-stored salmon at a market stall). A second study in China found: “In this outbreak in Qingdao, we directly isolated SARS-CoV-2 from the cod outer package's surface swab samples. This is the first time worldwide, SARS-CoV-2 were isolated from the imported frozen cod outer package's surface, which showed that imported frozen food industry could import SARS-CoV-2 virus.” The analysis found that after swab tests, 50 out of 421 packages were found to have SARS-CoV-2. 

A third study, a non-peer reviewed preprint manuscript posted on bioRxiv, found that food contamination is possible and the virus can live on meat (frozen and refrigerated) for several weeks. According to Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment virologist Erwin Duizer, “We have no reason to assume that it might not happen.” However, live animals are most likely the ones to transmit the coronavirus to humans, notes Nature. Ohio State University virologist Qiuhong Wang argues in favor of live animal spread, stating, “You bring all those naturally distant species to one location, so there are more chances to incubate and generate a new virus.” However, University of Queensland veterinary epidemiologist Andrew Breed told Nature that handling animals that were frozen and then thawed could still pose a risk to humans. Further investigation will continue on these theories to see which appear most likely in the case of additional spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Fauci Worried about Alarming Trend in Daily Coronavirus Cases across U.S.

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci is worried that United States coronavirus levels will continue to remain at over around 70,000 new cases a day, making it difficult for life across the country to get on a path to normalcy (Bloomberg). On Sunday, Fauci appeared on CBS’ "Face the Nation" and said about the dangerous trend in cases, “Over the last several days, it's kind of stopped at around 70,000 and lingered there for a day or two. That is concerning because the thing we don't want is to have it plateau at 70,000 per day. That's exactly the thing that happened during previous surges. As it peaked and started to come down, people withdrew some of the intensity of the public health measures and it kind of stabilized at a very high level. That's very dangerous, particularly given the fact that we have these variants around.” Since Wednesday, February 24, the U.S. has averaged over 70,000 new cases each day, and the seven-day rolling average has not been below 60,000 since October 20, 2020 (WaPo). In addition, CNN reports: “On a per capita basis, North Dakota, South Dakota and Rhode Island have reported the most cases while New Jersey and New York are leading the country in deaths.”

Reduced Coronavirus Testing in Large Metropolitan Areas Is Worrying Some Health Experts

On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that coronavirus testing in the greater Washington, D.C./Maryland/Virginia area is down by at least one-third since its peak during the holidays. Now, public health experts are concerned that this reduction could result in recognizing variants too late before they spread across the region. According to the Post, three things are happening: First, as vaccination takes priority over testing, resources have shifted as well. Second, individuals who do not experience symptoms are not getting tested. Third, “pandemic fatigue” is strong. University of Maryland School of Public Health dean and former acting U.S. surgeon general Boris Lushniak says, “It’s as if we’re in a major paradigm shift in this pandemic and the world has gone from the world of testing to the world of vaccination,” adding, “But the problem is — and this is a major problem — we can’t give up on testing. . . . If we give up on testing, this wildfire of covid-19 will be spreading to our communities as we’re trying put it out in different forests.” The Post notes that the seven-day rolling average for positivity rates in testing in Washington, D.C. is 4.6 percent, 3.6 percent in Maryland, and 7.8 percent in Virginia. Should testing numbers go down, but infection numbers increase, then changes would need to be made to an emphasis on testing. However, officials in the greater Washington D.C./Maryland/Virginia area have highlighted that testing numbers are about at the level of this past Fall. Lushniak discussed the conundrum about what public health officials need to do in the midst of deciding whether to focus resources on one area or another: “What do you do? Do you test or do you vaccinate? The answer is you gotta do both.” According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of Saturday, 48,393,728 Americans had received one or more doses of Covid-19 vaccine, and 23,683,671 had received two doses (CDC).

Testing sites in Los Angeles County, California “are operating at only a third of their capacity,” reports the Associated Press. At the start of 2021, these 180 “government-supported” testing locations were conducting over 350,000 tests a week. Now, says Los Angeles’ coronavirus test lead Clemens Hong, “It’s shocking how quickly we’ve gone from moving at 100 miles an hour to about 25,” adding, “Everyone is hopeful for rapid, widespread vaccinations, but I don’t think we’re at a point where we can drop our guard just yet.” According to AP, the United States’ testing peak was on January 15, where the country was processing over 2 million tests a day on average, but the rate of testing has dropped by more than 28 percent since then. Similarly, Delaware’s health department noted a decrease in testing by 40 percent since January. Rockefeller Foundation Managing Director for Pandemic Response, Preparedness, and Prevention, Health Initiative Jonathan Quick says of the need for continued testing, “We need to use testing to continue the downward trend,” adding, “We need to have it there to catch surges from the variants.” Bonus Read: “Vaccines Can Get Us to Herd Immunity, Despite the Variants,” (Harvard).

In a Long Season of Covid-19, the Flu Has Luckily Not Thrived

Influenza levels in the United States have drastically dropped this season, reports the Associated Press. According to health experts, Covid-19 precautionary measures have helped stave off a strong flu season, preventing influenza-related deaths and overwhelming hospitals with additional patients. In recent years, the flu has resulted in 50,000 to 60,000 American deaths in a season. “February is usually the peak of flu season, with doctors’ offices and hospitals packed with suffering patients,” writes AP. However, another idea circulating is the power of the coronavirus and how it has “muscled aside flu and other bugs.” University of Michigan flu expert Arnold Monto said while this hypothesis can’t be fully explained yet as research on this virus is ever-evolving, the theory holds true with various flu strains and which come out on top. According to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Domestic Influenza Surveillance team lead Lynnette Brammer, who cited information from a CDC flu tracking system, “this is the lowest flu season we’ve had on record.” The AP reports that over 190 million flu vaccines were given this season.

Bonus Listen: “COVID, Quickly, Episode 1: Vaccines, Variants and Diabetes,” (Scientific American).

Around the World

Americas

Chile Becomes Leader in Covid Inoculation Strategy

Chile has administered more than 3.1 million vaccine doses in just three weeks, emerging as a global leader in Covid-19 vaccinations behind only the U.S., U.K., UAE, and Israel. Chile has secured vaccines from a range of suppliers and is aiming to inoculate 80% of its population by June. It has already vaccinated 16% of its 19 million citizens -- a rate that far outstrips the regional average (Guardian). Brazil has vaccinated 3.67% of its population, Argentina has vaccinated 1.84%, but no other South American country has administered shots to over 1% of its population. Chile purchased more than 35 million vaccine doses, including 7.8 million through COVAX, the WHO’s mechanism for ensuring equitable distribution of vaccines. “We have followed a pragmatic strategy,” said Rodrigo Yáñez, the undersecretary in Chile’s trade ministry, who has been tasked with securing the vaccine supply. “We considered the technical and scientific merit of each vaccine rather than political factors and have reached agreements with a number of laboratories in case supply should slow down.”

Africa

Health Experts Worry Tanzania’s Policies Will Undermine Africa’s Vaccine Campaigns

Vaccination campaigns are now underway or planned in most African nations, but not Tanzania, where President Magufuli has said that prayers and herbal remedies are better than “dangerous” foreign vaccines. The full extent of the outbreak in Tanzania is unclear, since the government has stopped reporting any official data, but burial workers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s biggest city, face unprecedented demand. Doctors are saying hospitals are overrun and face a shortage of beds and oxygen. And now, as vaccination campaigns pick up speed across the continent, experts fear that Magufuli’s policies will allow Tanzania to act as a source of infections and new variants, which could spread across Africa and beyond. The WHO last week called on Tanzania to protect not only its own 58 million citizens but also neighbouring countries. “This situation remains very concerning. Covid-19 is a serious disease that can cause severe illness and even death. National authorities everywhere must do all they can to protect people and save lives,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director general. 

Middle East

Israel to Vaccinate Palestinian Laborers

On Sunday Israel approved plans to vaccinate Palestinians with Israeli work permits after facing criticism from global health authorities and human rights groups for not extending its campaign to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza (Reuters). Israel agreed earlier this month to give Palestinian health officials 5,000 doses of its Moderna Covid-19 vaccine supply, though it has only given 2,000 doses so far. Now, Israel’s defense ministry said it would vaccinate the roughly 130,000 Palestiniians who work in Israel or its West Bank settlements (WSJ). Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine Director at Human Rights Watch, said that Israel was bound by international law to vaccinate Palestinians living under its effective control. “Vaccinating only those Palestinians who come in contact with Israelis reinforces that, to Israeli authorities, Palestinian life only matters to the extent it affects Jewish life,” Shakir said. Bonus Read: “How the Pandemic Nearly Tore Israel Apart,” (NYT).

China to Provide Afghanistan with 400,000 Vaccine Doses

Afghan officials said on Monday that China pledged to deliver 400,000 doses of Chinese manufacturer Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccines to Afghanistan (Reuters). “China’s ambassador to Kabul said in a meeting with health officials that his country would provide Afghanistan with 400,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine,” Ghulam Dastagir Nazari, the health ministry’s head of the immunisation programme, told Reuters. The Sinopharm vaccine, which has been approved by the World Health Organization, would provide a much needed boost to Afghanistan’s vaccination campaign though its unclear when the doses will be delivered. So far, just over 12,000 health workers have received the vaccine and the security forces have also begun vaccinating members. Afghanistan received 500,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine from India to kick off the vaccination drive last Tuesday. 

Europe

Czech Republic to Use Russian Vaccine Without EU Approval

The Czech Republic won’t wait for the European Union regulator’s approval of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and has taken “concrete steps” to purchase the vaccine already amid delays in receiving other vaccines through the EU’s procurement program, according to Prime Minister Andrej Babis (Bloomberg). Babis said on Sunday that local drug authorities’ assessment of the safety of the vaccine “would be sufficient.” “We cannot wait for EMA, when Russia has not applied (for approval),” Babis said on CNN Prima News (Aljazeera). The Czech Republic has been one of the hardest hit countries in the European Union and the seven-day average number of new infections reached 1,383 per million people on Saturday, one of the highest in the world. 

Norway Tightens Lockdown

Norway’s capital city Oslo is tightening lockdown measures to try to fight the rise in infections due to a more contagious variant, the city’s mayor announced on Sunday. The B.1.1.7 variant, first discovered in Britain, now accounts for 50-70% of infections in Norway, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (Reuters). All restaurants will be closed except for takeaway service and all non-essential shops will have to close from Tuesday. Students who were back at school will switch to remote learning again.

U.S. Government & Politics

House Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package; Biden Urges Quick Senate Action

On Saturday, the House of Representatives passed President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion Covid relief and stimulus package, sending it to the Senate (WSJ, Politico). The Wall Street Journal writes that the bill “would fund vaccine distribution, enhance and extend federal unemployment benefits, and send direct checks of $1,400 to many Americans and $350 billion to state and local governments. It also would raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.” As we have covered in prior briefs, the $15 minimum wage proposal has been a lightning rod in the Senate unlikely to receive Republican support let alone clear the 60 vote threshold to invoke cloture on a filibuster, and the Senate parliamentarian advised that the proposal could not be passed via reconciliation, a process that would allow the Senate to pass the bill with only a majority without having to break a filibuster. On Saturday, President Biden urged the Senate to act quickly to pass the bill (Politico). Biden stated, “We have no time to waste. If we act now, decisively, quickly and boldly, we can finally get ahead of this virus, we can finally get our economy moving again and the people of this country have suffered far too much for too long. We need to relieve that suffering.” Bonus Read: “Progressives Push to Squash Senate Filibuster After Minimum Wage Defeat,” (Politico).

Justice Department Appeals Judicial Ruling Blocking Federal Eviction Moratorium

The Justice Department is appealing after a federal judge in Texas issued a ruling blocking the government’s moratorium on evictions (Politico). Acting Assistant Attorney General Brian Boynton contended that the judge’s ruling “does not extend beyond the particular plaintiffs in that case, and it does not prohibit the application of the CDC’s eviction moratorium to other parties.” He added, “For other landlords who rent to covered persons, the CDC’s eviction moratorium remains in effect.” Politico writes, “The CDC’s September order banning evictions amid the pandemic cited a 1944 public health law that gives the agency certain powers to prevent communicable diseases from crossing state lines. The Biden administration recently extended the moratorium through June.” However, U.S. District Judge J. Campbell Barker wrote in his decision, “The federal government cannot say that it has ever before invoked its power over interstate commerce to impose a residential eviction moratorium.” Barker was appointed by President Trump.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem Criticizes Fauci at CPAC; Fauci Responds it's Easy to “Get a Standing Ovation by Saying I’m Wrong”

Speaking before the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Saturday, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem criticized Dr. Anthony Fauci’s guidance on the pandemic (Politico). Noem, who has opposed mask mandates, promoted a large motorcycle rally, and governed the hardest hit state in the nation in terms of per capita cases and deaths, stated, “I don't know if you agree with me, but Dr. Fauci is wrong a lot.” Noem is widely considered a potential candidate in 2024 and came in third in CPAC’s straw poll with four percent trailing by far Trump who was the favorite of 55% and Florida Governor Ron Desantis with 21% (Hill). On Sunday, Fauci called Noem’s comments, “not really helpful,” adding, “I’m sure that you can get a standing ovation by saying I’m wrong” (Politico).

One Third of U.S. Military Personnel Rejecting Covid Vaccination

About a third of U.S. military personnel are rejecting vaccination for Covid (NYT, Guardian). The New York Times reports, “While Pentagon officials say they are not collecting specific data on those who decline the vaccine, there is broad agreement that refusal rates are far higher among younger members, and enlisted personnel are more likely to say no than officers.” Meanwhile a poll of military spouses found that 58% would not allow their children to be vaccinated. On Thursday, Robert G. Salesses, an acting assistant secretary of defense, told the Senate Armed Services Committee, “There is a lot of misinformation out there” discussing one reason for the level of opposition. The Times describes the military’s effort to respond to the issue, writing, “While military leaders insist that vaccine acceptance rates will rise as safety information continues to spread, officials and advocacy groups are scrambling to improve the rates, holding information sessions with health care leaders like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. On some bases, health care workers follow up with those who refuse the vaccine to explore their reasons.”

U.S. Economy

Fed Closely Aligns with Biden Administration on Policy 

The Federal Reserve has closely aligned with the Biden White House on the value of stimulus as some Republican lawmakers and economists warn of overstimulation, according to the Washington Post (WaPo). The Post reports, “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell is waving off concerns about an over-torqued economy producing long-feared inflation, saying the job market has a long way to heal before such fears are justified. In recent weeks, the position has been repeatedly embraced and cited by top Biden officials who make a similar argument when they say Congress needs to ‘go big’ to ensure an economic revival.” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who previously headed the Congressional Budget Office and who is now president of the American Action Forum, what the Post describes as a center-right think tank, told the Post, “They all think alike.” Powell, however, has avoided discussing specifics of the Biden administration’s stimulus proposal.

U.S. Society

What Another Year of Remote Work Bodes

Many companies are expecting another year of remote work and that may bring changes to the character of remote work, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Discussions about the future of work, such as whether to reduce the salaries of employees who have left high-cost cities, are priority items in board meetings and senior executive sessions across industries, according to chief executives, board members and corporate advisers. Among the questions companies are trying to resolve: Who should shoulder tax costs as employees move to new locations while working remotely? And what is the most effective way to support working parents?” With many workers having moved due to the pandemic and as a result of the availability of remote work, many companies and workers are wrestling with tax questions as to where individuals truly work. For example, Facebook per the Journal “now says that when its workers request—and are approved for—long-term remote work, they must confirm their new location with the company, as it could affect their taxes. Facebook also said some remote employees’ salaries might be changed if they live in a location with a different cost of labor than their previous location.” Some companies are offering relocation support and others are noting how moves might shape salaries and benefits. Many companies are under pressure to aid more with support for child care under current conditions as well.

Analysis & Arguments

The Guardian outlines the science behind mask-wearing post Covid-19 vaccines.

Zeynep Turfecki writes on the five pandemic mistakes we keep making (Atlantic).

Vanessa Barbara examines Brazil’s disastrous vaccine rollout (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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