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Asia in Review

No. 52, December/2020, 5

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the last Asia in Review (AiR) update in 2020 on the latest happenings and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia. 

In the name of the AiR team, I wish you all a happy new year, and extend special greetings to readers in Sudan which celebrates Independence Day this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China to become world’s largest economy in 2028

(dql) According to findings of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), released last week in its annual report, China will overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated. The major factor for China’s rapid overtaking of the US are the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the Covid-19 pandemic, the London-based think tank explained. 

China is predicted to achieve average economic growth of 5.7% a year until 2025 before slowing to annually 4.5% a year from 2026-2030. For the US, the CEBR  forecasts a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, after which the US growth in the following years would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that. 

China’s share of global GDP has increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019 and will continue to grow, the CEBR said. It would pass the per capita threshold of 12,536 USD to become a high-income country by 2023. [The Guardian] [Deutsche Welle]

Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce reiterated that – as part of the country’s “dual circulation” strategy – it will boost domestic consumption and the development of a strong domestic market in 2021 to step up “smooth internal circulation”. 

First laid out in May and endorsed in October in the five-year plan 2021-2025, the “dual circulation” strategy stresses the “internal circulation” cycle of production, distribution and consumption, supported by innovation and upgrades in the economy and aimed to reduce the country’s dependence on overseas markets and technology in the long term. At the same time, China will remain its open-door policy to the world “on a wider scope and deeper level.” [Reuters][East Asia Forum]

China: Anti-food waste law on the way

(dql) The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the country's top legislative body, is reviewing a draft law designed to tackle massive food waste in China.

Inter alia, the bill introduces penalties for food service operators which induce or mislead consumers to “order excessive meals and cause obvious waste.” Restaurants are allowed to charge patrons for excessive amounts of leftovers. Furthermore, the bill provides for penalties for a broadcaster – radio, TV, or online – which produces, publishes, or disseminates the promotion of food waste, including shows about excessive eating and drinking. Failing to heed a formal warning by government authorities will result in fines up to more than 15.000 USD and the suspension of business “for rectification”. 

The legislative move follows results presented by the China Academy Science according to which in 2015 residents in big cities wasted 17 to 18 million tons of food, equaling the amount to feed 30 to 50 million people. In an earlier move in summer, President Xi Jinping launched the so-called "Clean Plate Campaign" to call on the country to tackle “shocking and distressing” food waste. [The Guardian][Global Times] [AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3]

China: Antitrust investigation against Alibaba launched

(dql) Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is facing an anti-trust probe over allegations of violations of rules against anti-competition practices. The State Administration for Market Regulation cited Alibaba’s so-called “choosing one from two” policy, in which merchants are forced to sell exclusively on Alibaba and skip competitors such as JD.com and Pinduoduo. 

At the same time, Alibaba’s affiliate Ant Group, which operates the popular Alipay e-wallet and works as an intermediary for financial services and customers, has been summoned by a group of finance and regulatory authorities to be questioned about its “compliance” work. In an earlier blow to Ant, it was forced in November by Chinese authorities to call off its gigantic 35 billion USD initial public offering.

These moves come amid the ongoing review of the draft of the “Guidelines for Anti-monopoly in the Platform Economy”, whose period of public consultation has been completed last month. They are widely seen as part of efforts of the Chinese state to reassert itself vis-à-vis  China’s internet giants, which have so far been allowed to expand more or less boundlessly. [Caixin] [South China Morning Post] [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]

China: Wuhan reporter jailed

(dql) An independent Chinese journalist who reported from Wuhan during the time when the coronavirus outbreak was at its height has been sentenced to four years in prison after a Shanghai court found her guilty of "picking quarrels and provoking trouble," a generic term often used in China to target dissidents and human rights activists. Zhang is the first citizen journalist known to have been sentenced for her role in reporting on the coronavirus pandemic. 

Observers have raised concerns over a number of other independent reporters who have been detained or disappeared since the beginning of the pandemic, as part of the government’s restrictions on the coverage of the pandemic. [BBC] [CNN]

China lowers age of criminal liability

(dql) China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the country’s top legislative body, has amended the country’s Criminal Law to lower the age of criminal liability from 14 to 12 years for some serious crimes including “intentional homicide or intentional injury that leads to death or causes others severe disabilities by extremely cruel means.” The law will enter into force on March 1, 2021. 

Under the current law, the age of criminal liability is 16, while children between 14 and 16 are held criminally responsible for crimes like rape, robbery and intentional homicide. 

The legislative move comes against the background of state media data, according to which crimes committed by those under 14 accounted for 20% of all juvenile crimes in 2017 — a hike of more than 12% compared to 2009, and in response to public outcry over lenient punishments for serious crimes, including a case of a 13-year-old boy who was sentenced to three years of correctional education for murdering a 10-year-old girl in October 2019. [Channel News Asia] [New York Post]

China: Speculations about Beijing’s plan to tighten grip on Hong Kong leader election body

(dql) China’s central government is reportedly considering to reform the Election Committee that chooses Hong Kong’s chief executive and erase 117 Committee seats that are likely to be occupied by opposition district councilors. Critics view this potential change as the latest attempt of Beijing to increase its control over Hong Kong. [Asia Times]

The 1,200-member Election Committee comprises business elites, professionals, social leaders, lawmakers, delegates to the National People’s Congress (NPC) and members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), as well as a total of 117 seats to be elected by district councillors from among their members. The 117 seats are the result of opposition candidates’ landslide victory in the district council elections in November 2019 – once the stronghold of the pro-Beijing camp – in which they won 392 out of 452 seats.

The opposition camp holds more than 300 seats in the Election Committee, and with those 117 seats on the top of them, it would control a quarter of the votes and could have a powerful, kingmaker role in a two or three-horse chief executive race, scheduled for March 2022. [South China Morning Post] 

South: President Moon approval ratings plummet over legal battle between Justice Ministry and General Prosecution

(dql) President Moon Jae-in's approval of a disciplinary measure of his Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae to suspend the country’s Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl from duty for two months, has caused a backlash against himself, after Seoul court approved Yoon’s suit to overturn of Choo’s order. 

Yoon had filed an injunction at the court on Thursday last week seeking both to apply for a suspension of the execution and to overturn the two-month disciplinary suspension of duties. The court’s decision is the latest move in the ongoing legal battle between the Justice Ministry and the Prosecutor General. Earlier this month, the disciplinary committee of the Justice Ministry found Yoon guilty ethical and legal misconduct, including surveillance of the judiciary, interference in the investigation into a controversial case as well as damage to his political neutrality, and ordered the two-months suspension from duty.

As the Ministry of Justice is expected to appeal the court’s decision, the final outcome of this legal battle will the decided by the Supreme Court. This will take more than seven months, making it possible for Yoon to remain in office for the rest of his term which ends in July next year.

Against this background, the court’s decision is widely seen as a blow to the President, who is facing record high disapproval ratings at almost 60% as result of the handling Yoon’s suspension issue and publicly apologized to the public for “causing inconvenience and confusion” in the context of the legal battle over the General Prosecutor. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times] [Yonhap]

South Korea: New leader of hardline labor union elected 

(dql) A hardline figure has been elected as new head of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), South Korea's militant labor umbrella organization. Yang Kyeong-su, head of the KCTU chapter in Gyeonggi Province, was elected the new leader with more than 55% of votes in last week’s leadership election. Yang, whose three-year term begins next month, vowed during his campaign to organize a general strike scheduled for January 3 to demand the revision of pending labor bills, such as the extension of the validity period of collective agreements, and an enactment of a bill that would hold companies accountable for serious industrial disasters. Yang predicted that the strike would be "written down in a page of history." [KBS] [Yonhap]

Established in 1995, the KCTU is the country’s largest industrial union confederation with nearly 1 million members in 2018. 

For insights into the recent history of trade unions in South Korea see Kap Seol in [The Wire] who argues that labor militancy has played a decisive role in the rise of South Korea’s democracy. 

Japan: Government reveals details of decarbonization and electrification policy

(dql) Japan’s government last week revealed policy details to boost electric vehicles and offshore wind power generation as part of its efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

The action plan identifies 14 key areas in which significant growth and investment are needed to achieve decarbonization, including the use of hydrogen as a power source and carbon recycling.

The government also pledged to extend support for the private sector to help achieve the goal of reducing net carbon dioxide emissions to zero, while estimating the growth strategy would generate economic effects amounting to around 90 trillion yen in 2030 and 190 trillion yen (1.8 trillion USD) in 2050. [Kyodo News] [Japan Times]

Taiwan: Control Yuan member calls for better protection of undocumented migrant children 

(nm) Taiwan’s Control Yuan, the country’s monitoring body, urged related government agencies to take concrete steps to guarantee better care and protection for undocumented children born to migrant workers. 

The call follows findings of the agency revealing that many migrant workers do not officially register their children as they fear being laid off by their employers if found to be pregnant, despite current labor laws prohibiting employers from unilaterally terminating contracts due to pregnancy. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child as well as Taiwan’s Protection of Children and Youth Welfare and Rights Act stipulate that children should be registered immediately after birth – irrespective of the parents’ legal status –. 

Since children of migrant workers must be registered in order to obtain residency and thereby access to government services, migrant parents often cannot apply for government subsidies and support such as healthcare and education for their children. [Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan: Reform of children protection law demanded

(nm) The non-profit organization Child Welfare League Foundation last week proposed amendments to the Protection of Children and Youth Welfare and Rights Act, in an attempt to better cope with parental abduction of children and missing children.

mong others, the foundation called for creating a legal basis for the Missing Children Data Resource Center that would allow it to receive funding to better run its programs, including handling reports of missing children, as well as follow-ups and counseling in cases of missing children. The foundation highlighted the failure of the NPA’s missing-child alert system as it has never issued an alert since it was introduced four years ago and urged the NPA to relax alert issuing criteria.

With regards to preventing parental child abduction, the foundation also proposed that divorced couples should be required to undergo consultation and plan for the care of their children in order to mitigate the effects of divorce on children.

The foundation's move comes on the heels of latest data of the National Police Agency (NPA), according to which more than 2,600 children were abducted from their homes by a parent and over 5100 children under 18 reported missing this year. [Taipei Times] 

Taiwan: Legislative Yuan approves government’s decision to lift its restrictions on import of ractopamine pork

(nm) Last week, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with its majority of 61 out 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s legislature, pushed through multiple administrative directives that pave the way for thus far banned imports of US pork containing the controversial feed additive ractopamine and US beef from cattle older than 30 months, despite fierce resistance of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), over food safety and health concerns. The change is scheduled to come into effect on January 1. [Focus Taiwan 1]

The government’s contentious move to lift the import ban, against which the KMT has launched motions for a national referendum last week to “thwart President Tsai Ing-wen’s dictatorship,” is widely considered by its critics as an appeasement pf the DPP towards the US in a bid to facilitate negotiations on a long-desired bilateral trade deal between Taipei and Washington. [Reuters] [Taipei Times 1] [Taipei Times 2]

Further spurring uncertainty this week, several ordinances by local governments required zero tolerance for ractopamine in pork, putting them in conflict with the Cabinet-level directive. A KMT politician argued that local governments could seek constitutional interpretation should the central government decide to nullify the local regulations. In response, the DPP pointed at the central government’s responsibility to enforce food safety regulations which calls for unified regulations, adding that Cabinet would address the issue once it has gathered more opinions from local governments. [Taipei Times 3]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Authorities move more Rohingya refugees to remote island, despite rights concerns

(lm) Bangladesh has begun moving another 1,000 Rohingya refugees to a remote island in the Bay of Bengal this month, in defiance of safety and security concerns from international rights advocates. Authorities earlier this month already relocated more than 1,600 Rohingya from crammed camps near the Myanmar border to a settlement on what the UN and rights groups worry is a dangerous low-lying island prone to cyclones and floods [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [The Straits Times] [The Guardian]

India: NSCN-K faction announces ceasefire, signals return to peace talks

(lm) A breakaway faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), a Maoist separatist group operating mainly in Northeast India, has decided to revive a ceasefire agreement with the Indian government it had unitarily abrogated in 2015. In July, the group had defected from the Myanmar-based fraction of the NSCN-K, and elected Niki Sumi as its new president earlier this month. [The Indian Express] [Nagaland Post]

Observers attribute the success in forcing the militants to lay down their arms to the diplomatic efforts by Indian Army Chief General Naravane, who had visited Myanmar along with Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla in October. At the tame, India also decided to supply an attack submarine to the Myanmar Navy, besides agreeing to further deepen overall military and defense ties [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. [Republic World]

The conflict in the state of Nagaland is India’s longest lasting insurgency, which has continued in one form or another since the Naga National Council – the oldest Naga national organization – declared an independent Naga nation in August 1947. The main goal of the NSCN-K is to establish a sovereign Naga state, the People’s Republic of Nagalim (PRN), by unifying all the Naga-inhabited areas in Northeast India and Northwest Myanmar.

In October, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) - the largest and most influential Naga outfit - made public that it had written to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February to ask for peace talks to be held in “a third country” [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. In 1997, the NSCN-IM and the Indian government signed a bilateral ceasefire agreement, and the two sides been negotiating to reach a conclusive and permanent agreement since August 2019.

India: Authorities detain 75 in Kashmir after anti-Modi alliance wins local polls

(lm) India’s government has detained at least 75 Kashmiri political leaders and activists, including separatist leaders and members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami group to forestall political unrest. Days before, the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an amalgam of seven local political parties that is pro-India but favors self-governance in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory, won a majority of seats in District Development Council (DDC) elections. Elections were also being held to fill over 12,000 vacant seats in panchayats (village councils) and more than 230 in urban local bodies [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. [The Straits Times] [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times]

Held in a staggered eight-phase process, the polls were the first vote  in the region since the revocation of Article 370 and subsequent bifurcation of the former state of Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. After the results for 278 of the 280 segments were declared (counting has halted in the remaining two), both the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Modi and the PAGD claimed victory. While the BJP has ended up with the largest seat share (75), the PAGD has finished as the largest pre-poll alliance (110). [Hindustan Times]

But what is more, the BJP has the highest contested vote share in the Jammu region and the lowest among major parties in the Kashmir region – once again highlighting the fault lines in the union territory´s politics. For a start, Jammu and Kashmir is the only union territory that has a Muslim majority population.  This majority, however, is not equally distributed across the regions: While Islam is practiced by more than 95 percent of population in the 10 districts of the Kashmir valley, Hindus comprise about 60 percent of the population in the districts of the Jammu region. [Deutsche Welle]

In the run-up to the elections, the two main regional political parties - the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) - had come together with other parties under the PAGD to contest the elections. However, many prominent Kashmiri politicians and public figures remained in detention with no recourse, or under threat. The BJP, meanwhile, flew some of its top national leaders and cabinet ministers, hoping to make a strong showing in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4].

Addressing an event in Kashmir through video link on December 16, Prime Minister Modi said that development of Jammu and Kashmir is his government's top priority, terming the recent DDC elections a new chapter, saying it showed the strength of India's democracy. [Anadolu Agency]

India: Farmers agree to meet government over new agriculture laws

(lm) Leaders of Indian farmers’ unions have agreed to meet federal ministers on December 29, provided the agenda includes four specific points, most notably modalities to repeal the law and a legal guarantee for higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP), a government fixed benchmark designed to incentivize the farmers and thus ensure adequate food grains production in the country [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. During Tuesday’s meeting, farmers’ leaders will also oppose plans to impose stiff penalties for the burning of crop stubble, a key source of air pollution, a coalition of unions called Samyukta Kisan Morcha said on December 26 in a letter to the agriculture ministry. [Al Jazeera 1]

Though the ministry has agreed on a wide-ranging discussion, it has also indicated its unwillingness to consider repealing the laws Prime Minister Modi says will bring about much needed reform that will introduce transparency, accelerate growth and attract private investment in supply chains [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. The insistence of the protesting farmers, mostly from the country’s two breadbasket states, Punjab and Haryana, that the laws be rolled back has been the central hurdle since talks began on October 13. [The Times of India] [Al Jazeera 2]

Nepal: Prime Minister Oli removed from Communist Party’s top post, as political crisis deepens

(lm) A increasingly beleaguered Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on December 25 removed two ministers from his cabinet and changed the portfolio of another six, about a week after seven ministers loyal to his intraparty rivals, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, resigned to protest the dissolution of the lower house of parliament [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. [The Himalayan Times 1]

Nepal on December 20 plunged into a political crisis after Prime Minister Oli got President Bidya Devi Bhandari to dissolve the country’s lower house of parliament and announce snap elections for next year - a controversial move amidst a prolonged tussle for power between him and his rival Dahal [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Since then, the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is effectively divided into two factions - one led by the prime minister and another by Dahal. Both factions over the course of last week held separate meetings of key bodies of the party. 

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, hitherto co-chair of NCP, was elected by his faction on December 23 as the new party’s parliamentary leader, replacing Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. The nomination was proposed by NCP senior leader and Dahal-ally Madhav Kumar Nepal, who was elected new NCP co-chair during a meeting of the party’s Central Committee the day before. On December 24, however, the Central Committee of the Oli-led faction removed Dahal from the post of the party chairman. [The Himalayan Times 2]

As part of their efforts to retain control of the party, both factions seek official recognition by the Election Commission (EC). The Dahal-led faction on December 23 informed the EC that it had more than 40 percent of Central Committee members (out of 441) to claim the NCP. The previous day, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli presided over a separate meeting of the Central Committee, expanding the body to make it a 1,199-member committee with the addition of 556 members now and with the provision of adding 197 members in the future. As per the current provisions in the Political Parties Act, a faction must show the signatures of 40 percent of its Central Committee members to claim the party name or register a new party. [The Kathmandu Post]

The Supreme Court (SC), meanwhile, forwarded a total of 12 writ petitions against the prime minister’s move to dissolve the parliament to a Constitutional bench, after it refused to issue an interim order against the decision. The hearings are set to begin on Friday, December 25. Moreover, the main opposition party, Nepali Congress (NC), has decided to go on a nationwide protest against dissolution of the lower house of parliament. [Hindustan Times] [The Himalayan Times 3]

Nepal: Government calls winter session for upper house of parliament from January 1

(lm) The Cabinet of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli recommended President Bidhya Devi Bandhari to summon the winter session of the upper house of parliament on January 1, after the session was abruptly prorogued on in July. According to the Constitution, the gap between the prorogation of one session of Parliament and commencement of the next session must not exceed six months. [The Hindu]

Months of infighting in the ruling Nepali Communist Party (NCP) led Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to recommend the dissolution of the lower house of the parliament on 20 December [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Under present circumstances, the upper house, therefore, will have an extremely limited role: While it can still pass bills already sent by the lower house, any changes deemed necessary cannot be passed in the absence of the lower house.

Maldives: Ex-defense chief likely to face corruption charges

(lm) A former chief of the country’s Defense Forces could soon be facing corruption charges for misuse of his position, as the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) has sent its recommendations to the Prosecutor General Office, seeking prosecution. The general is accused of accommodating his father at a maritime rescue centre of the Maldives National Defense Forces between 2017-2018. The ACC also found him guilty of allowing his father to reside in the VIP building of the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre during this period. [South Asia Monitor]

Pakistan: Opposition alliance gathers to commemorate 13th death anniversary of former PM Bhutto

(lm) Ignoring a government ban on public gatherings due to the coronavirus, thousands gathered in southern Pakistan on December 27 to commemorate the 13th anniversary of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's death. The first woman to head a democratic government in a Muslim majority nation, Benazir was killed in a gun-and-bomb attack in the city of Rawalpindi in 2007, weeks after she arrived from years-long self-exile in Dubai and London. [Anadolu Agency]

Leaders of the opposition alliance Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) [see latest AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3] used the gathering in the city of Larkana - home town of the Bhutto political dynasty - to accelerate its ongoing campaign to oust the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan. Addressing the public gathering, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman and son of Benazir, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, said the opposition had united on PDM's platform to rescue the country from the government's alleged inefficiencies. [Dawn]

Pakistan: Chief of Islamist militant organization convicted on charges of terror financing

(lm) An anti-terrorism court has sentenced Hafiz Saeed, chief of the Islamist militant organization Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD), to fifteen-and-a-half years in prison on charges of terrorism financing - his fourth conviction this year on similar charges [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. [Hindustan Times]

Saeed’s latest conviction relates to the ongoing efforts of the Pakistani government to fulfil its commitments to the FATF, an inter-governmental organization that monitors global money laundering and terrorist financing - early next year. During the FATF's last review in October, Islamabad was urged to complete the internationally agreed action plan by February 2021 and to demonstrate that terrorism financing probes resulted in effective sanctions. In the run-up to the meeting, India had mounted a determined effort to hold Pakistan responsible for its role in supporting terrorism and terrorist infrastructure [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. [Frontline]

Sri Lanka: Buddhist chapter calls on government to allow faith-based burial of COVID-19 victims

(lm) One of the country’s biggest chapters of Buddhist monks has called on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to permit the country’s Muslim and Christian minorities their faith-based burial rites for relatives who die of COVID-19. This is the first time that a major group of Buddhist monks has taken a stand to allow burials since the controversy broke in April [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. [Economy Next]

Outrage has been mounting in Sri Lanka’s Muslim community, after the forced cremation of a 20-day-old COVID-19 victim against family wishes and in contravention of Islamic tradition earlier this month – the latest in more than a dozen such cremations in the Buddhist-majority country since the outbreak of the pandemic. [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4] 

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Musicians handed jail terms for criticizing government

(lm) A Cambodian court on December 22 convicted two musicians and sentenced them to up to a year-and-a half in prison on charges of incitement over their rhymes about social injustice and loss of sovereign territory. The verdict prompted rights group to condemn the verdict as a form of “intimidation” against outspoken members of the country’s youth. [Bangkok Post]

The same day, a provincial court sentenced the owner of a local media outlet to 20 months in prison and fined him $5,000 for “incitement” after he reported on a land dispute involving a military officer in a protected forest—a case that other journalists had also covered. Following the arrest, the Ministry of Information also withdrew the broadcasting station’s operating license, saying the station broadcast “exaggerated content.” [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: Cabinet reshuffle

(dql) In major Cabinet reshuffle last week, President Joko Widodo replaced six ministers for health, trade, tourism, fisheries, social, and religious affairs. The reshuffle was prompted by the country’s ongoing economic depression due to the pandemic as well as by the arrest of the Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister and the Social Affairs Minister over corruption allegations. [Channel News Asia] [Straits Times]

Amid surging numbers of coronavirus infections, Deputy Minister for State-owned Enterprises Budi Gunadi Sadikin, who doubles as head the national economic recovery task force, has been appointed the new Health Minister. He succeeds Terawan Agus Putranto, a controversial military radiologist and former personal doctor to Widodo’s late mother, who has come under fire over his mishandling of the pandemic. [South China Morning Post]

Notable is the appointment of Yaqut Cholil Qoumas, leader of the Ansor Youth Movement of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia's biggest Muslim organization, as new Minister for Religious Affairs, replacing Fachrul Razi, a retired four-star army general known for his penchant for stirring debate by provocative Islam-critical ideas, including his suggestion of a ban on the niqab and men’s cropped pans in government offices. [Antara News] [Nikkei Asian Review]

Observers view this decision of the President as a return to regular practices, in which the Religious Affairs Ministry portfolio would be handed to a senior figure of the NU, as per tradition. The President provoked anger from NU with his bold move of installing Fachrul in October 2019. Yaqut is widely believe to go back to a policy of moderation towards Islamic groups. [Jakarta Post] [Tempo]

For short bios of the new ministers, see [Jakarta Globe].

Laos: Oversea Laotians struggle to get home 

(py) Recently, an increasing number of Lao fishermen has been captured in southern Thailand after crossing the border illegally from Malaysia. Most of the fishermen have been working in Malaysia's fishing industry for several years but have been recently laid off due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Left stranded without jobs and depleted savings, these oversea Lao workers attempted to go back home through bordering southern Thailand, without fear of being arrested. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Malaysia: UMNO treasurer found guilty in corruption case

(lm) The Treasurer-General of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the biggest party in Malaysia's ruling Perikatan Nasional (PH) alliance, has been found guilty by the country’s High Court on charges of corruption. The offence, under Section 165 of the Penal Code, carries up to two years’ imprisonment, a fine, or both, upon conviction. [The Straits Times]

The verdict comes after a former UMNO top leader was sentenced to 12 months in prison and fined $495,000 last week, after he was found guilty of graft. [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]

Malaysia: Youth movement MUDA to take legal action over registration delay

(lm) The recently established youth movement Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1] threatened to legal action against the Registrar of Societies (ROS) over the delay in registering the group as a political party. The group had applied to be registered as a party in mid-September and has not received an update from the ROS since then.

A multi-racial and youth-based movement, MUDA was officially announced shortly after former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had applied to have his newly founded Malay-based PEJUANG party (The Homeland Fighters' Party) registered [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]. Among MUDA’s co-founders is Syed Saddiq, a former BERSATU lawmaker who served as the Minister of Youth and Sports in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration under Mahathir. [The Straits Times]

Malaysia: Ex-finance minister pleads not guilty to amended charges

(lm) Lim Guan Eng, who served as the Minister of Finance in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration under former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, has pleaded not guilty to two amended charges of corruption involving an undersea tunnel project. Lim is charged with receiving approx. $825.000 in his capacity as the then Chief Minister of Penang as an inducement to help a company secure the undersea tunnel project. He also alleged to have solicited 10 percent of the profit from the company's director for helping it to secure the project. [The Straits Times]

Myanmar: Military claims to have found over 70,000 irregularities on voter lists

(lm) The latest in a series of attempts by the military to allege irregularities in the recently concluded general election, Myanmar’s military said it found more than 70,000 voter list irregularities that could point to voter fraud, after it allegedly scrutinized voting in four townships where its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), suffered heavy defeats [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3].

Observers criticize the move as “irrelevant”, with the Union Election Commission of Myanmar (UEC) rejecting the military’s call for the agency to instruct its sub-commissions to provide copies of election-related documents, including voter lists, to facilitate its review of the vote. [The Irrawady]

Philippines: CPP, NPA labelled terrorist organizations

(dql) The Philippine Anti-Terrorism Council (ATC) has formally designated the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing New People’s Army (NPA) as terrorist groups. The move comes three years after President Rodrigo Duterte issued Presidential Proclamation No. 374 in December 2017 declaring both organizations as terrorist groups. [Inquirer 1]

In spite of this decision, leaders of CPP and NPA – speaking on Saturday on the occasion of the 52nd anniversary of the founding of the CPP – called on the government to halt their all-out war strategy, to stop “blind red-tagging, slander, extortion, arbitrary arrests, torture and murder,” and to resume peace talks. [Manila Times] [Inquirer 2]

In response, Duterte, however, announced that he will not call for a ceasefire “ever again” with the CPP and NPA for the remainder of his term. [PIA]

Philippines: Duterte-criticism flares up after police murder of mother and son

(dql) The brazen killing of a mother and her son by an off-duty officer has triggered a public outcry in the Philippines and reignited demands for a reform of the country’s police force. Graphic footage shows a plainclothes policeman arguing with his neighbour and her adult son before abruptly shooting them both from close range. The officer, who handed himself in to police, has been charged with two counts of murder.

The incident has also increased pressure on President Rodrigo Duterte who has been accused by rights groups of allowing police and the military to act with impunity. [BBC]

Philippines: President Duterte names opposition lawmakers suspected of corruption

(dql) Reversing his last month’s decision, President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday revealed names of former and current lawmakers allegedly involved in corruption in the context of public works projects, while conceding that he was not in possession of evidence for these allegations. 

Targeted legislators and other critics condemned the claims as groundless and called them an attempt to deflect from real issues plaguing the country including the slow and ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, the daily number of deaths, police abuses, and the P15-billion missing Philhealth funds. [ABS-CBN] [Manila Bulletin]

Singapore: Old and new faces in Workers’ Party new leadership

(dql) In the leadership election of the opposition Workers’ Party on Monday, secretary-general Pritam Singh and chairperson Sylvia Lim were confirmed in their respective positions. Next to them, the election saw six new, younger faces aged between 27 and 44 joining the party’s Central Executive Committee. [Malay Mail]

Thailand: New COVID-19 related restrictions including ban on mass gatherings 

(lm) In light of a recent spike in COVID-19 cases, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has signed an order curbing mass gatherings and restricted movement in and out of disease-control areas. Published in the Royal Gazette on December 25, the new rules will be strictly enforced under the Emergency Decree, which was first invoked in late March [see AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5] and has been extended eight times since then. The latest extension is valid until January 15, 2021. [Nikkei Asia] [Bangkok Post] [Chiang Rai Times]

Thailand: Former Pheu Thai Party veteran registers new party

(lm) Veteran politician Sudarat Keyuraphan has officially registered a new party with the Election Commission, about a month after she resigned with other heavy weights from the biggest oppositional party, the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), late last month. Observers expect several current Pheu Thai Party members might also join the newly registered Thai Srang Thai (National Building Party), including Torpong Chauyasarn, who served as Deputy Health Minister in the cabinet of Yingluck Shinawatra. [Bangkok Post]

A co-founder of PTP’s predecessor, the now-defunct former governing Thai Rak Thai Party of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Khunying Sudarat quit the PTP alongside several other key figures. Previously, her sudden resignation as chair of the party’s strategy committee had taken the PTP by surprise and created a domino effect that led the entire executive committee of the party to resign [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

Thailand: Lower house passes abortion bill 

(lm) A cabinet-sponsored bill that seeks to legalize early-stage abortions passed its first reading in the lower house of parliament on December 23 and will now be forwarded to a parliamentary committee. By amending two sections of the Criminal Code, the bill would for the first time allow women who are up to 12 weeks pregnant to have abortions performed by a qualified doctor, if they insist on terminating the pregnancy. [Bangkok Post 1]

Preceding Wednesday’s session, the government had instructed the Council of State to draft the amendment bill after the Constitutional Court (CC) had ruled in February that existing laws criminalizing abortion contradicted the constitution, referring to articles in the constitution that guarantee equal rights for men and women, as well as rights to liberty and life. In its ruling, the CC wrote that the laws had to be amended within 360 days, otherwise they would become invalid.

Women’s rights activists, however, raise concerns the cabinet-sponsored bill may not reflect reality, saying many women would seek abortions after they were 12 weeks pregnant. The Move Forward Party (MFP) had initiated a bill proposing allowing abortions to be performed on women up to 24 weeks pregnant. But the bill was not passed during the parliamentary session on Wednesday.

As women are taking up leadership roles in the youth-led pro-democracy movement [AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], abortion laws feature among a host of once-taboo issues currently finding increased public expression in Thailand. At current, social stigma and the strict version of the law often lead women to seek underground abortions that can result in serious complications [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Bangkok Post 2]

Thailand: Not much hope for reconciliation panel

(lm) Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha has nominated General Chaichan Changmongkol, Deputy Minister at the Ministry of Defense, as one of two government representatives on the proposed reconciliation to include an authoritative voice for security. [Bangkok Post 1]

General Chaichan is set to replace Suporn Atthawong aka ‘Rambo Isaan’, formerly a prominent figure in ‘Redshirt’ movement who switched sides after the 2014 putsch led by General Prayuth [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Considering that the military ‘s role in politics is a core issue of criticism for the anti-government protesters, the decision regarding General Chaichan is not less sensitive than the previous consideration to appoint Suporn. However, all six opposition parties have already refused to join the reconciliation process anyway, claiming the government would lack sincerity in fostering true reconciliation. [Bangkok Post 2] 

Thailand: Criminal Court dismisses sedition charges against former deputy prime minister

(lm) The Criminal Court on December 22 dismissed charges of sedition brought by the military junta against oppositionell politician Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Justice, and Minister of Education. [Bangkok Post]

Days after the military under the leadership of General Prayuth had putsched against then-Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and formed the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), Mr. Chaturon in May 2014 publicly voiced his opposition to the coup d’état. Shortly thereafter, he was taken to the Crime Suppression Division and charged with instigating public unrest and undermining the NCPO’s authority, in breach of Section 116 of the Criminal Code, and in violation of the Computer Crimes Act. 

Thailand: Criminal Court dismisses lèse-majesté and sedition charges

(lm) Thailand’s Criminal Court on December 22 dismissed four-year-old lèse-majesté charges against the mother of political activist Sirawith Seritiwat, alias Ja New [see (1/7/2019)], filed under Section 112 and the Computer Crimes Act. The case was initially filed with the military court and later transferred to the Criminal Court. [Bangkok Post 1]

Separately, the Bangkok South Criminal Court on December 25 acquitted nine activists charged with sedition and holding an illegal protest within 150 meters of a royal palace in January 2018. At the time, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) had banned all political gatherings.

Meanwhile, the Nakhon Pathom provincial court found a student guilty of damaging state property by throwing paint at the gate of his university during a protest earlier last month. He was handed a one-month suspended sentence and a 1,000-baht fine. [Bangkok Post 2] 

Thailand: Democracy group calls on government to investigate disappearance of plaque, monument

(lm) A pro-democracy group on December 23 submitted a petition to the Fine Arts Department, a government department under the Ministry of Culture, urging the body to investigate the disappearance of two memorials commemorating Siam’s change of government ending the absolute monarchy by a bloodless coup 1932 and the victory of the new regime against an attempted counter-revolution in 1933. 

The first memorial is the Khana Ratsadon memorial plaque, the second the Defense of the Constitution Monument. [Bangkok Post 1]

After the memorial plaque went missing in April 2017 it was replaced with another plaque displaying a royalist inscription instead of mentioning Khana Ratsadon. The ongoing anti-government protests that are increasingly focusing on a reform of the present role of the monarchy staged the implementation of yet another plaque symbolically linking the present protest movement to the historical Khana Ratsadon. 

The Defense of the Constitution Monument, more commonly known as the Crushing Rebellion Monument, which marked the defeat of the royalist Boworadet rebellion of 1933, was removed in 2016 to make way for the construction of the Green Line electric train.

Separately, a 76 old heir of a member of Khana Ratsadorn, Lt Gen Soraphot Nirandorn, on December 26 sought forgiveness for his father’s role in the Khana Ratsadon regime before the statues and portraits of King Rama VII, King Rama VIII and King Rama IX. His father was a minor member of Khana Ratsadon, who was in charge of the construction of the Democracy Monument, commemorating the revolutionary change of government in 1932, and also served on a committee administering royal assets from 1932–1948. General soraphot reportedly asked the former Kings for forgiveness for his father broke his oath of allegiance to the King when he participated the revolutionary coup as a royal officer and also for the participation in the new ruler’s handling of royal assets that made many of them rich. [Bangkok Post 2]

Both acts, the anti-government protesters initiative to restore the historical memorials and the surprising move of general Nirandorn, heir of a monument that was expected to become next on the list of recently altered memorial sites, highlight the present struggle over the historical memory concerning modern Thailand’s foundation. 

Vietnam: Journalist arrested for criticizing tollbooth scheme

(lm) Authorities in Vietnam arrested a journalist earlier this month for social media posts criticizing tollbooths set up under a controversial infrastructure program. The journalist was detained by police on charges of “abusing democratic rights to infringe upon the benefits of other individuals and/or organizations”, under Article 331 of Vietnam’s 2015 Penal Code. The arrest comes after authorities sentenced three administrators of a Facebook online political discussion group to lengthy prison sentences last week, citing the same article. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Dissent is not tolerated in a country with no independent media, and authorities of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) routinely use a set of vague provisions in the penal code to detain dozens of activists, writers, and bloggers. As part of Hanoi’s increasing efforts to tighten control over the news media, a new decree went into effect on December 1. Under the new decree, signed by Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in October, anyone sharing information that authorities deem harmful but not serious enough for a criminal penalty could face steeper fines and a longer, 12-month suspension.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US trade relations: US military end user list includes nearly 60 Chinese firms, Trump strengthens directive on blacklisted of Chinese securities

(dql) Citing the need to prevent US civil aviation products from being diverted for military use, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) last week released a new Military End User (MEU) list requiring export licenses for exports, re-exports, and in-country transfers of equipment and technology. The list of a “first tranche” covers 103 foreign entities, including 58 in China (and 45 in Russia), with most of them in the aerospace industry. [AIN Online]

Meanwhile, the Trump administration on Monday bolstered an executive order, which bars US investors from purchasing securities of Chinese companies considered being controlled by the Chinese military, by defining the scope of US investors and the prohibited assets, including “all transactions by ‘US persons’ including individuals, institutional investors, pension funds, university endowments, banks, bond issuers, venture capital firms, private equity firms, index firms, and other US entities, including those operating overseas.” The move cleared disagreement among US agencies about how tough to make the directive, released in November. [CNBC] [South China Morning Post]

Chinese-Russia joint aerial strategic patrol set to become yearly routine

(dql) In a latest sign of a deepening military partnership between China and Russia, the Defense Ministers of both countries confirmed in a joint announcement that last week a joint aerial strategic patrol was held over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea in which China sent four nuclear-capable H-6K strategic bombers “to form a joint formation” with two of Russia’s famous Tu-95 bombers. They added that the patrol was “part of an annual military cooperation plan” between the two countries. [Asia Times]

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping in a phone talk with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin reassured that the relationship between China and Russia “has strong endogenous driving force and independent value, not to be impacted by fluctuations in the international setting or and by any factor of interference.” The statement sends a strong signal to the US that the relations between the two countries will be further elevated, no matter what policies the incoming US administration of Joe Biden will adopt. [Xinhua, in Chinese] [South China Morning Post]

China-Australia relations: Australian goods blocked 

(dql) Data of the Chinese Office of Trade reveal Beijing’s continued hardened stance against Australia. According to latest customs data, almost 9.000 liters of Australian craft beer were blocked from entering the country at one Chinese port last month due to incorrect labelling. Furthermore, another 8.000 kg of frozen beef from a now suspended Australian abattoir was detained in Shanghai over mismatched certification.

In line with the current strained relations between China and Australia, Chinese customs authorities are now seen to be less likely to overlook Australia's shipment errors than before and have moved quickly to punish mistakes. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization last week confirmed the launch of Australia’s dispute with China over the latter’s tariffs on Australian barley. Canberra earlier this month filed the complaint against Beijing’s imposition of total tariff of 80.5% on Australia’s barley exports in May. [Yahoo News]

China criticizes Canada for rejecting Chinese takeover of Canadian mining firm 

(dql) China has accused Canada of politicizing “normal economic cooperation” between the two countries under pretext of national security, after Vancouver rejected the proposed takeover of Toronto-based TMAC Resources Inc. by China’s Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd., citing national security concerns.

The case adds to already strained Chinese-Canadian relations. Bilateral relations have been fraught since Canada arrest of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Dezember 2018 at the request of the United States, in response to which China arrested Canadian citizens Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, who have remained in prison for two years.

Earlier last week, Canadian Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan in an interview reiterated that Canada looks at “China's expansion into other parts of the world right now as a concern, based on how they're dealing with smaller nations in terms of how they provide the support that has created this economic kind of dependency." He added that – in support of diplomacy – Canada’s and its allies’ military must always be “prepared send a strong message of deterrence.” [Global News] [National Post] [CTV News]

China-Turkey relations: Chinese legislature ratifies extradition treaty

(dql) China’s National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, last weekend ratified an extradition treaty with Turkey, that was signed in 2017 and that is widely believed among observers to be used by China to speed up the return of refugees and Muslim Uighurs Beijing holds responsible for “terrorism”.

The Turkish government, meanwhile, is facing strong opposition within its parliament and has not yet ratified the deal, with critics urging it to withdraw from the agreement to prevent it from “becoming an instrument of persecution”. [France 24]

Ankara has long been one of the main defenders of the Uighurs on the international stage. However, over the past years, Ankara has grown closer to Beijing, and provided its assistance in apprehending or interrogating Uighurs accused by Chinese authorities of terrorism. And while Turkey has not sent Uighurs to China directly, it has been accused of sending them to third countries where extradition to China is easier. [The Guardian]

China-EU relations: Investment pact set to be concluded within this year after Beijing commits to labor rights

(dql) The European Commission announced that the EU and China are set to conclude a long-delayed investment agreement this week after China made fresh commitments on labor rights, clearing the last stumbling block in the negotiations. France threatened last week to block the deal over this issue. [France 24] [AA]

Observers see the impending EU-China accord as a possible setback for incoming US President Joe Biden’s efforts to “build coalitions of like-minded partners and allies that make common cause with us in defence of our shared interests and our shared values,” to be in a much “stronger positions” to confront China, as he said on Monday in a speech after his briefing with national security and foreign policy agency review team members. [Politico] [Business Standard]

China-Sweden relations: Huawei excluded from 5G rollout after court ruling

(dql) Sweden will go ahead building its 5G network without the Chinese telecoms company Huawei after an appeals court upheld an October decision to block the Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE from its networks over national security concerns. The Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS) announced on Friday it would resume its next-generation telecoms auctions next month. [Scandasia]

Japan to ban entry from all countries to block new strain's spread

(dql) In the wake of surging numbers of new coronavirus infections Japan announced that it will suspend entries into the country of nonresident foreign nationals from around the world from Monday till late January. The Japanese government call the decision a precautionary step against the new, potentially more transmissible coronavirus variant, after the first domestically transmitted case involving the variant was confirmed on last Saturday.

The country reported 3,881 coronavirus cases the same day, a new record daily tally for the fourth straight day, and 47 deaths as Tokyo and several other prefectures reported the highest numbers of infections at the start of the year-end and New Year holidays.

Japan-South Korea relations: Court order allowing seizure of assets to pay victims of Japanese wartime forced labor takes effect

(dql) Already strained relations between Japan and South Korea over the issue of forced labor are expected to worsen after an order of a South Korean court took effect on Tuesday, mandating that the local assets of a Japanese firm be sold off to compensate victims of forced labor, in fulfillment of a ruling by the South Korean Supreme Court in November 2018 ordering the company to provide between 100 million won ($91,560) and 150 million won to five plaintiffs who were forced to work in its factories during Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945. [Korea Herald]

Japan, however, has been consistently questioning the ruling, claiming that all reparation issues, stemming from its colonial rule, were settled by a 1965 treaty that normalized relations between the two countries. It has repeatedly criticized the South Korean government for failing to take necessary action to resolve the dispute. 

Interestingly, the court’s order took effect a day after the fifth anniversary of the agreement to resolve the issue of Korean women forced into Japanese wartime military brothels, an agreement hailed as landmark deal at the time when is was concluded in 2015 between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Park Geun Hye. [Mainichi]

South Korea deploys underwater mine disposal robots

(dql) South Korea’s military has deployed a new indigenous underwater mine disposal vehicle in a bid to the its Navy’s safety and operational capabilities. First delivered to the military in 2018, around ten units were put into operation, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).

Adopting features of a marine robot, the vehicle is designed to conduct mine-clearance missions by searching and identifying mines underwater and neutralizing them by placing explosives. It is remotely controlled to ensure that operators remain out of risk. [Korea Herald]

Cross-strait: Taiwan seeking to strengthen enforcement of regulating China-affiliated publications

(nm) Taiwan’sMinistry of Culture (MOC) announced plans to revise the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area to stricter regulated publications by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as well as by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) before they can enter the Taiwanese market. Publications by private individuals or associations in China, however, would not be subject to the planned amendment.

In response to concerns of censorship, Taiwanese Culture Minister Lee Yung-te labelled CCP and PLA publications “propaganda materials, not books,” adding that “[i]f a country, faced with the invasion of an unfriendly country, does not build fortifications to defend itself, I doubt what its government is doing.” The MOC will consult with members of Taiwan’s publishing associations and industry players as soon as possible to discuss the proposed revision. 

The debate over the amendment comes after the children’s book Waiting for Dad to Come Home, which was originally published in China and is said to glorify China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, was barred from distribution earlier this month after it was revealed that its publisher failed to apply for approval by the MOC. [Focus Taiwan] [The News Lens]

Cross-strait relations: Taipei and Beijing cooperate in battling illegal Chinese sand dredgers

(nm) Taiwan and China have worked out cooperation with regard to over 100 Chinese ships illegally dredging sand near Taiwan’s outlying island of Matsu. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has called the dredging an illegal form of profit-seeking which, however, was not politically motivated. According to the CGA, China and Taiwan have developed a standard operating procedure, pursuant to which Taiwan can call the Chinese side to act if the problem occurs again.  [Taiwan News]

US Presidents signs Taiwan Assurance Act to strengthen support for Taiwan 

(nm) As part of a 2.3 trillion USD government spending package, US President Donald Trump signed the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020 into law which bolsters support for Taiwan’s defence capacity and its participation in international organizations. 

The Act calls Taiwan a vital part of the US Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, and expresses support for Taiwan’s asymmetric warfare strategy and calls for regular arms sales to Taiwan: “The U.S. should conduct regular sales and transfers of defense articles to Taiwan in order to enhance its self-defense capabilities, particularly its efforts to develop and integrate asymmetric capabilities, including undersea warfare and air defense capabilities, into its military forces.”

Furthermore, the act highlights the US’ support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in several international organizations, including in the United Nations and the World Health Assembly, as well as other international groups that do not require statehood for participation, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. 

It also allocates 3 million USD to support the activities of the US-Taiwan Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF), an initiative which seeks to develop human resources and exchange knowledge between the Taiwan and the US, and which recently announced its 2021 priority areas of cooperation. Japan joined the platform in 2019. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Focus Taiwan 2] [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]

In a similar development, more than 30 members of the US Congress, including 26 senators, last week introduced resolutions calling on US president-elect Joe Biden to enter into a free-trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan. [Taipei Times] 

Further support came from Japan as a top Japanese defence official last week urged Joe Biden to “be strong” in supporting Taiwan in light of an aggressive China, calling Taiwan’s safety a “red line.” Although Tokyo largely maintains a “one China” policy, its engagement with Taiwan has grown in recent years, mostly on a non-governmental basis. Japan also shares strategic interests with Taiwan, as Japan’s energy supplies and trade flow through lanes which Taiwan sits in. [Reuters]

Taiwan-Indonesia relations: Discussion on migrant worker fees to be continued

(nm) After a meeting last week between representatives from the Taiwan Ministry of Labor and Indonesian officials left several issues unresolved, officials are to convene again in two weeks over recruitment costs for Indonesian migrant workers. 

The main issues of last week’s meeting were Taiwan’s ban on Indonesian migrant workers due to COVID-19 concerns and a policy supposedly unilaterally introduced by Indonesia to take effect next month that transfers all preparatory costs of migrant workers, such as airfares and passport and work visa costs, to Taiwanese employers. During the first meeting, only eleven types of fees were covered.

According to Workforce Management Division Director Hsueh Chien-chung, the Indonesian side on the other hand criticized Taiwan’s requirement that applicants provide their criminal record and that Taiwan is the only country importing Indonesian labor to do so. 

As of the end of November, 265,439 Indonesians were employed in Taiwan, with 194,022 of them working as caregivers and domestic workers. [Taipei Times 1] [Taipei Times 2]

Indian Army chief visits forward locations at Line of Actual Control

(lm) While Indian troops remain battle-ready, facing Chinese forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, Indian Army Chief General Naravane on December 23 visited areas on the southern bank of Pangong Tso (a glacial lake at 4,242m), meeting troops deployed in harsh winter conditions at forward locations along the LAC. [The Hindu]

The region has high, finger-like mountain spurs above the water, and control of these spur is disputed by both countries [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. Moreover, temperatures at critical mountain peaks and passes along the de-facto border have dipped below minus 30 degrees Celsius, with local sources saying that a heavy blanket of snow covers most terrain. Most major roads on the Indian side are either blocked by snow already or have restricted movement – including two of the main highways connecting the region to the rest of the country. China, by contrast, has developed formidable infrastructure throughout the Tibet autonomous region. It includes a network of thousands of kilometers of fiber optics, small aperture terminal satellite stations and modern highways and high-speed railways that can rapidly deploy the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Hindustan Times]

In yet another bid to resolve the months-long border stand-off, India and China held their last round of diplomatic talks on December 18 - after more than 40 days without any dialogue. However, notwithstanding periodic hopes for a resolution [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3], Indian media suggest earlier this month that China had not only dug its heels in Ladakh, but had also increased military activity on its side of the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. But what is more, for any de-escalation to take effect, many convoys carrying troops and arms would have to move out, which the roads do not permit. [South China Morning Post]

India, Vietnam strengthen defense ties, undertake PASSEX exercise in South China Sea

(lm) Taking place against China’s growing assertiveness in the region, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc co-hosted a virtual summit on December 21, signing seven agreements in areas ranging from defense to petrochemical and renewable energy research, and calling for a peaceful, “open and rules-based” Indo-Pacific. India also handed over one of 12 high-speed patrol boats being made for Vietnam under a $100 million line of credit. [South China Morning Post]

In the same vein as a Vietnam-Japan summit held earlier this year [AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], the India-Vietnam summit stressed the importance of ensuring maritime safety and security in the South China Sea as well as peaceful dispute settlement and the adherence to international law. Regarding the latter the joint statement referred to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), and the aspired Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). [The Diplomat]

The summit marked the culmination of a series of high-level exchanges between the two sides throughout this year, including a visit by Vietnam’s vice-president to New Delhi, a phone conversation between the two prime ministers in April to discuss the COVID-19 situation, and an earlier online meeting in November on the sideline of the 37th ASEAN Summit [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3].

Separately, an Indian warship reached Ho Chi Minh City on December 24, delivering humanitarian relief supplies for people affected by floods in central Vietnam under New Delhi’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) III mission. What is more, the visit is also aimed at enhancing maritime cooperation between the two countries, as the warship will be partaking in a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) with the Vietnam People’s Navy in South China Sea, to be held between December 26 and 27. [Hindustan Times] [WION]

China sends senior official, amidst crisis of ruling Nepal Communist Party

(lm) In a first diplomatic step since the dissolution of Nepal’s lower house of parliament, China on December 27 dispatched a four-member delegation led by a vice minister of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to Kathmandu. During his four-day visit, the delegation is scheduled to meet Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and President Bidya Devi Bhandari, among others. [The Kathmandu Post] [The Straits Times]

The trip comes on heels of a series of meetings held by China’s ambassador to Kathmandu with Nepal’s President Bidya Devi Bhandari and top leaders of the NCP, including Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal. The Chinese envoy is known to be active during times of crisis in Nepali politics, showcasing deep interest in the internal dynamics of the NCP [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1, AiR No. 18, May/2020, 1]. [The Himalayan Times]

Coming as it does at a time when the NCP is undergoing a vertical split, the visit of the Chinese delegation is likely not confined to assessing the ground situation. In this context, it is worth noting that the high-ranking official is known to enjoy considerable influence with NCP leaders. This is largely because he played a major role in bringing together the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML) and the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) (CPN-MC) in 2018 to form the NCP [see AiR (4/2/2018)]. [The Diplomat]

Pakistan says one soldier killed by Indian shelling along disputed Kashmir border

(lm) A Pakistani soldier was killed in border clashes with Indian forces along the Line of Control (LoC), the military control line in the disputed Kashmir region. The incident came on the heels of Indian shelling in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, resulting in the death of one civilian and injuries of three more. [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2]

Tensions are running high since Islamabad earlier this month accused New Delhi of attacking a vehicle carrying two UN employees who were traveling through the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir to meet with the victims of a prior Indian violation of the ceasefire agreement. The UN has confirmed has the incident, saying it is being investigated. India, however, denies its forces opened fire. [Anadolu Agency]

India, Japan review security situation in Indo-Pacific region

(lm) Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his Japanese counterpart Kishi Nobuo on December 23 reviewed the prevailing security situation and the need for a free and open maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. [Hindustan Times]

During their phone conversation, the two ministers reviewed the progress on various bilateral defense cooperation initiatives and expressed commitment to further elevate engagements between their armed forces under the “India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership” military agreement [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Both sides also welcomed the successful conduct of the bilateral maritime exercise “Jimex 2020” [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], as well as of the “Malabar 2020” naval exercises, which had marked the first for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Further, the ministers also welcomed the recent successful visit of the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) chief to India, who had visited New Delhi earlier this month.

India, Pakistan step up efforts to entice Central Asian nations

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan is set to sign a letter seeking $4.8 billion loan from the World Bank for a trilateral railway project connecting Pakistan with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. The two landlocked countries have long been trying to connect with Pakistan’s warm water ports – most notably the China-operated Gwadar port [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Islamabad, in turn, aims to expand its footprint in Central Asia by gaining access to the economies of neighboring countries and redirecting their trade through Pakistani ports. [The Express Tribune] [Dawn]

Moreover, Afghanistan was also invited by India to join the next meeting on the joint use of Chabahar Port, a seaport located in southeastern Iran that is being increasingly seen as a fulcrum of connectivity to Afghanistan and central Asia. The announcement came just a week after India held its first trilateral with Iran and Uzbekistan to boost trade ties among the three countries [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. [The Week]

Indian Army chief visits South Korea to enhance military ties

(lm) Indian Army Chief General Naravane on December 28 embarked on a three-day visit to South Korea to bolster military cooperation with the East Asian nation. During his visit, General Naravane is scheduled to meet with several high-ranking Korean officials, including Defense Minister Suh Wook, Chief of Staff General Nam Yeong-shin, and Joint Chief of Staff Chairman General Won In-choul. [Hindustan Times]

The trio marks General Naravane’s visit to a foreign country during the coronavirus pandemic after Myanmar, Nepal [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3].

China seeks additional guarantees from Pakistan for new $6 billion loan

(lm) Citing Pakistan’s weakening financial position [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3], China has sought additional guarantees before sanctioning a $6 billion loan for the construction of the Mainline-1 (ML-1) project. Beijing also proposed a mix of commercial and concessional loan, notwithstanding Islamabad’s desire to secure the cheapest lending. [The Express Tribune]

The single-largest project to date under the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement, ML-1 involves upgrading and track-doubling railway lines in the Peshawar – Lahore – Karachi corridor. In August, the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) had approved the strategically important $6.8 billion upgrade of railway infrastructure in the Pakistani-administered part of Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]. Islamabad then decided in November to seek an initial $2.7 billion loan from Beijing for the construction of package-I of the ML-1 project. [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]

In light of the strategic importance of the project, Pakistan had expected China to provide up to 90 percent the of financing, further assuming that Beijing was ready to accept a 20 years repayment period, subject to the condition that the grace period should be 10 years. However, China has offered to finance only 85 percent of the project cost, with a payback period of 15 to 20 years in biannual tranches. [Economic Times]

India’s caution as US sanctions Turkey over S-400 deal with Russia

(lm) Russia’s ambassador to India said on December 21 that Moscow’s ongoing deals with New Delhi for military hardware, including the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, are “advancing well”. India placed a $5.3 billion order for five units in 2018 and paid the first tranche of $ 800 million in 2019. Consignment is scheduled to begin by end-2021 and be completed some three years later. [Hindustan Times]

Timing and context of the remarks are noteworthy: Earlier this month, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey for Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. The 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) - a US federal law legislation meant to dissuade countries from procuring Russian military equipment and financially undermine one of Moscow’s major revenue sources - requires the US president to impose sanctions on countries in violation. 

Ever since India signed the S-400 deal, the advent of CAATSA has surfaced sporadically, but with little definitiveness that has resulted in keeping New Delhi off-balance and wary. Because the US State Department decides on a case-by-case basis whether to implement sanctions or grant a waiver, New Delhi has set eyes on the incoming Biden-administration. [The Print] [The Wire]

Considering possible implications, Indian observers say there is no probability for CAATSA sanctions. For a start, they would negatively impact the Indo-US relationship at a time when Washington is projecting India as a frontline state at the geopolitical fault line pitting the US and its allies against China [see e.g. AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Moreover, sanctions are unlikely to persuade New Delhi to abandon its defense linkages with Moscow: India is heavily dependent on Russian military goods and Moscow’s largest customer for defense kits [see e.g. AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4, AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. [Observer Research Foundation]

Separately, India on December 1 successfully test-fired on December 23 a Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM) from a defense facility off the coast of Odisha. Jointly developed by India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries, this new-generation MRSAM has been developed to neutralize airborne threats like jets, missiles, and rockets, including projectiles launched simultaneously. Since July, the DRDO has conducted a series of tests for multiple missiles [see e.g. AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4, AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. Earlier this month, India test-fired both an anti-ship and land-attack version of its BrahMos supersonic cruise missile [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [The New Indian Express]

Indian security concerns on Myanmar border cause for delay of vital infrastructure project

(lm) India’s Ministry of Home Affairs has listed security concerns and lack of access as the reasons for the delay in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), a mega-infrastructure project linking the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with its landlocked northeast via Sittwe seaport in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. While Sittwe port will likely be operationalized early next year [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], the route of the project around Paletwa and along the Kaladan river is troubled with Myanmar-based insurgent groups, the Arakan Army and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). Last November, the AA abducted five Indian employees working on the project. While four of them were released, one died in rebel custody. [India Today]

Taking place against the larger backdrop of increasingly dysfunctional Sino-Indian relations, India considers the Aa as China’s proxy. In this context, New Delhi accused Beijing earlier this month of supplying funds and weaponry to rebel groups that have stepped up attacks on its border with Myanmar in recent months, including Myanmar’s largest and best-equipped ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA). [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]

Bangladesh, Turkey to deepen bilateral cooperation

(lm) During his two-day visit to Bangladesh, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu assured Dhaka of Ankara’s continuous support to resolve the Rohingya crisis. He also said that Turkey was ready to enhance bilateral defense cooperation with Bangladesh, as Ankara is seeking to expand its diplomatic footprint in South Asia. Cavusoglu also inaugurated Turkey’s new embassy compound in Dhaka. [Anadolu Agency] [bdnews24]

As the center of gravity in global politics is shifting eastwards, under the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey in 2019 announced a new foreign policy initiative called the Asia Anew. To advance its strategic interests, Ankara has since been stepping up efforts towards a larger role in the Islamic world by deepening bilateral relations with predominately populated Muslim countries such as Pakistan [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4], Bangladesh, and Malaysia [see AiR No. 52, December/2019, 4]. [Daily Sabah]

Royal Thai Armed Forces is preparing three-year operation plan

(lm) The Royal Thai Armed Forces (RTARF) are preparing a three-year operation plan, which will be based on input from agencies concerned - including the Armed Forces’ three service branches, the National Security Council and the National Economic and Social Development Council. The plan is in accordance with the National Strategy (2018-2037), the country’s first national long-term strategy developed pursuant to the Constitution. [Bangkok Post]

Sri Lanka: East Container Terminal (ECT) in Colombo Port not for sale, says minister

(lm) Sri Lanka’s government has no plans on selling the East Container Terminal (ECT), the second deep-water facility at the Port of Colombo, according to the country’s minister of ports & shipping. Two committees are currently studying a proposal to hand-over the management of ECT, which begun operations earlier in November, to the Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. [News First]

In the run-up to this year’s general election, Colombo had suspended the tri-nation project, which India, Japan, and Sri Lanka were to jointly implement [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. New Delhi and Tokyo consider their presence in the Colombo Port a strategic necessity in the face of China’s presence in the adjacent Colombo Port City project, a flagship $1.4 billion project in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

United States spending bill provides conditional assistance to Sri Lanka, Cambodia

(lm) Sri Lanka and Cambodia are among 31 countries that may benefit from US assistance under a $2.3 trillion COVID-19 stimulus relief and omnibus spending bill, which US President Donald Trump signed into law on December 27. Coming against the larger backdrop of an increasingly dysfunctional Sino-US relationship, US financial support will, however, be contingent on the US Secretary of State certifying that both countries, inter alia, assert their sovereignty against influence by China. [Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021] 

Colombo, for one thing, is also expected to promote reconciliation between ethnic and religious groups, increase transparency and accountability in governance, and bring perpetrators to justice. The development comes after the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Board of Directors decided to discontinue the proposed US$ 480 million compact with Sri Lanka earlier this month, citing a lack of partner country engagement as reason for the decision [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3]. [Economy Next] [Daily FT] [Colombo Gazette]

As for Cambodia, the US spending bill states that the country must be able to verify that its Ream Naval Base, other military installations, and “dual use facilities such as the Dara Sakor development project” [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4] maintain their neutrality. These conditions follow expressions of concern from US officials about the potential for China to host military assets in Cambodia. At the center of concerns has been the Ream Naval Base, where new satellite images show further work underway to prepare for an expansion of the facilities [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2, AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. Denying Chinese involvement, at the ASEAN summit last month, Cambodia’s Minister of Economy and Finance reinforced the country’s stance on not allowing foreign military presence within its borders, referring to the nation’s sovereignty and neutrality [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Nikkei Asia]

Cambodia extracts ‘first drop’ of offshore oil

(lm) Cambodian Premier Hun Sen announced on December 29 that the kingdom has extracted its first drops of crude oil from an area off the southwestern coast of Sihanoukville. A long-awaited milestone for one of South-east Asia's poorest nations, the discovery also raises questions of how the country will use its new-found wealth. [Deutsche Welle] [The Straits Times]

Since American multinational energy corporation Chevron first reported proven reserves off Cambodia in 2005, the kingdom has been feted as the region's next potential petrostate, with the government estimating hundreds of millions of barrels of crude beneath its waters. But production stalled, as the government and the US giant failed to agree on a tax and revenue-sharing agreement, leading the firm to sell its stake in Block A to Singapore-listed KrisEnergy.

KrisEnergy expects a peak production rate of 7,500 barrels of fluid per day during an initial phase - a modest amount compared with Cambodia's oil-producing neighbors Vietnam and Thailand. But the revenues could be significant for the government, helping diversify an economy heavily reliant on garment exports – and increasingly Chinese investment [see e.g., AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. According to an agreement reached in 2017, the government, which holds a 5 percent stake of the block, would earn at least $500 million from the first phase of the project, based on an oil price of $50 per barrel. [Asia Times]

Indonesia-USA relations: Washington offers billions for Indonesia establishing ties with Israel

(dql) The US has offered Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, to double its current one billion USD Indonesia portfolio if Jakarta would join President Donald Trump’s push for Muslim countries to establish relations with Israel and develop ties with Israel. [Aljazeera]

In response to this offer, the Chair of the Committee on Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation in the Indonesian House of Representatives said that Indonesia will never normalize relations with Israel as it is a “occupation state”, adding that the “‘blind’ US bias towards Israel and its disregard for Palestinian rights,” has turned the situation in the region “from bad to worse.” [Middle East Monitor]

In a related development, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno in a talk with her Turkish counterpart reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to stand behind Palestine, demanding that “The Palestinian issue must be resolved based on various [United Nations] Security Council resolutions and internationally agreed parameters, including the two-state solution.” 

In an earlier development, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo expressed in the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September Indonesia’s unceasing support for Palestine, highlighting that Palestine is the only participant of 1955 Bandung Conference which has not reached independence. [Jakarta Globe]

Laos-Thailand relations: Bans on Thai seafood imports after the Kingdom saw surges of COVID cases

(py) Laos has imposed bans on the import of seafood from Thailand, which would remain in place until the two sides could come up with measures that could guarantee the safety of seafood imported from Thailand. The action has been rolled out after Thailand's Samut Sakhon province became the new epicenter of a recent Covid-19 outbreak, with more and more cases being recorded in the nearby regions. [The Laotian Times] [Bangkok Post]

Laos and China vow to deepen ties 

(dql) In a phone talk General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping and General Secretary of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party Bounnhang Vorachith, the former pledged to “open up a new stage and write a new chapter for the relations between the two parties and the two countries in the new era,” based on their joint commitment to “building China-Laos community with a shared future”. Xi highlighted the successful poverty-reduction cooperation as highlight of China-Laos relations in the recent past years, as well as the joint efforts in fighting the coronavirus pandemic and natural disasters. 

Bounnhang, meanwhile, reassured his counterpart of his country’s willingness to cooperate with China to further advance practical cooperation in all sectors under the Belt and Road initiative, and to enhance greater development of Laos-China relations. [Xinhua] [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China]

Philippine-US relations: President Duterte threatens to end Visiting Forces Agreement with US over coronavirus vaccine delivery

(dql) President Rodrigo Duterte last week announced that he would push through with his plan to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US unless it was able to provide the Philippines with a minimum of 20 million vaccines against the coronavirus. In an earlier move, Duterte had ordered the termination of the VFA earlier this year, after Washington invoked the American Magnitsky Act and denied the issuance of a US visa to Sen. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa. The order, however, was suspended for the six-month countdown before the military agreement lapses. [Inquirer]

In force since 1999, the VFA allows the US government to retain jurisdiction over US military personnel accused of committing crimes in the Philippines, unless the crimes are "of particular importance to the Philippines."

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

January- February 2021, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland 

DCAF Young Faces 2021 Webinar Series on Cybersecurity Governance for Young Leaders 

The DCAF invites all young leaders and interested scholars from Southeast- and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus interested in cybersecurity and good governance to apply for the Young Faces Webinar Series. The series consists of three different webinars with three sessions each, covering the following topics: Introduction to Good Governance in Cybersecurity (26-28 January), National Cybersecurity Strategies (NCSS) – Experiences in Strategically Planning Cybersecurity Governance (16-18 February), and Gender and Security Online (23-25 February). Participants will have the opportunity to exchange with experts and researchers in the field while expanding their knowledge. 
Applications are open until 31 December 2020. 

For more information and application guidelines, please visit [DCAF]. 

5 January 2021 @ 5:30-7:00 pm EST, Institute for Policy Studies, Washington DC, USA

Dignity, Not Domination: The Need to Transform the US’ Relationship with Iran

This event will discuss what needs to change in the US-Iran relationship and what US policy rooted in respect of Iranian dignity could look like. 

Please find registration details here: [IPS]

6 January 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, USA   

U.S.-India Defense Ties: Partnership of the 21st Century 

In light of considerably deepened defense ties between the US and India since the turn of the century, this webinar asks: Will the India-US relationship finally become the key American partnership of the next century? The panel will feature Abhijnan Rej, Security and Defense Editor at The Diplomat and Director of Research at Diplomat Risk Intelligence and Vice Adm (retd) Shekhar Sinha, former Chief of Integrated Defence Staff and former C-in-C Western Naval Command. 

For more information, please follow [Hudson Institute]. 

8 January 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, USA   

The Distribution of Wealth since the Great Recession 

In this webinar, Hudson Senior Fellow Dr. John Weicher will discuss his new report “The Distribution of Wealth Since the Great Recession.” He will discuss how the Great Recession affected the wealth of rich and poor families, as well as the often-overlooked large group of families in between. 

Please visit [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

11 January 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Queen’s University, Canada  

HSPRI Inside Research Series: Ontario Health Teams w/ Dr. Walter Wodchis 

Dr. Walter Wodchis – Associate Professor at the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the University of Toronto – will seek to determine: What does success mean and how do we know if we are progressing toward that goal? 

If you are interested in joining the event, please follow [QU] for more information and registration. 

11 January  2021 @ 12:00- :00 pm EST, The Heritage Foundation, Washington DC, USA

The New Intolerance: Critical Race Theory and Its Grip on America 

Critical Race Theory (CRT) has become one of the dominant paradigms of our age, making race the sole prism through which proponents analyze all aspects of the American experience. This online event presents a timely conversation on CRT and how to push back against this new wave of intolerance

Please find registration details here: [Heritage]

12 January 2021 @ 4:00-5:15 pm UTC, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland

Informing SRoL Policies in a 'News-Freak' Era: The experience of research organizations 

The COVID-19 pandemic has recalled the importance of producing and bringing compelling knowledge to the policymaking process. Both policymakers and State’s agencies need knowledge to frame, assess, anticipate decide or implement policies.

For more information, see [ISSAT]

13 January 2021 @ 7:00 pm ET, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Canada 

Everything is Connected with Dr. Laura DeNardis 

This presentation and subsequent Q&A ask: Is our ever-increasing connectivity to the Internet blurring the lines between our physical and virtual worlds? How can we manage the balance between the benefits and dangers of the Internet of Things (IoT)? Dr. Laura DeNardis, CIGI Senior Fellow and scholar of Internet architecture and governance at American University and Yale Law School’s Information Society Project, will launch her new book. 

For more information, please visit [CIGI]. 

13 January 2021 @ 11:00 am CET, European Centre for International Political Economy, Belgium 

ECIPE Webinar: How Can We Revive the WTO and Trade Multilateralism? 

In this webinar, Simon Evenett considers how to revive the WTO and trade multilateralism after the COVID-19 crisis, asking in particular: Has the COVID-19 crisis done permanent damage to the self-correcting system of the WTO? What can the WTO do to arrest the trend of new trade frictions? How is the WTO system addressing various shifts in the global economy and politics – like the growth of the digital economy and climate change? Is the WTO able to deal with these and other new 21st century problems?

If you wish to participate in the webinar, please visit [ECIPE] for more information and registration details. 

19 January 2021 @ 2:00-4:00 pm GMT+1, Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark

American foreign policy in the post-Trump era 

This event will discuss the global conditions for, and alternative paths of, a post-Trump US foreign policy. 

Please find registration details here: [DIIS]

19 January 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm ET, Pacific Council on international policy, US

HOW SHOULD PRESIDENT-ELECT BIDEN RESPOND TO A RISING CHINA?

This online event of the Edgerton Series on Responding to a Rising China will elaborate on how the incoming Biden administration should balance its relationship with China.

Please find registration details here: [Pacific]

26 January 2021 @ 13:00 pm UTC, DiploFoundation, Switzerland

What were the main Internet governance updates in January 2021? How will recent updates influence the developments in upcoming months?

Join this online event for a round-up of the major global Internet governance and digital policy developments.

Please find registration details here: [DIPLO]

27 January 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium 

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB’s strategy review 

As the European Central Bank is in the middle of reviewing its monetary policy strategy, this webinar seeks to discuss the following questions: What are the issues that it needs to address? Are there quick gains to be had? And what are the big issues that it must consider? Importantly, how is the role of macroeconomic management changing in the era of the digital transformation?

If you are interested in this event, please follow [Bruegel] for more information. 

27 January 2021 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, United States 

The Future of US-Nigeria Relations: A Conversation with Ambassador John Campbell 

James Barnett and John Campbell – former US Ambassador to Nigeria and Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations – will discuss contemporary Nigerian politics, the challenges of post-colonial state-building, and the future of US-Africa relations. Campbell is also author of the new book, Nigeria and the Nation State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Postcolonial World, urging US officials to stop projecting their own image of the nation-state onto Africa and embrace a more decentralized approach to diplomacy. 

Please follow [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

3 February 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 am EST, Open Society Foundations, USA

A Human Rights Guide for Researching Racial and Religious Discrimination in Counterterrorism in Europe 

This event will mark the publication of A Human Rights Guide for Researching Racial and Religious Discrimination in Counter-Terrorism in Europe. The guide provides guidance to human rights and antiracism activists, researchers, NGOs, and oversight bodies working to document and prove discrimination, as defined in human rights law, in the counterterrorism context in Europe.

Please find registration details here: [Opensociety]

9 February 2021 @ 1:30 pm EST, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Canada 

National Security, Economic Prosperity, and Canada’s Future

Against the backdrop of a considerably shifted international security and geopolitical landscape, this webinar discusses the changing threat landscape and the ways in which Canada can contribute to an important strategic discussion around national security and intelligence practice. It will also discuss how Canada can better safeguard future economic growth, innovation, sovereignty, and its national interests. 

Details are accessible under [CIGI]. 

15 February 2021 @ 4:00-5:15 pm UTC+8, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Understanding People’s Use of Digital Lending in Indonesia

This event will discuss a range of relevant issues related to the use of fintech and financial capability in Indonesia, with the focuses on household debt sourced from online loans, it will also highlight the efforts and regulation of financial services made by the government in ensuring good market conduct and enhancing consumer protection. 

Please find registration details here: [ISEAS]

11, 15-19 March 2021, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan  

The 7th 3R International Scientific Conference (3RINCs)

Global academics, policymakers, and business representatives, especially those from the Asia-Pacific region, will come together for interdisciplinary discussions around green recovery policies. In the "Special Session" of the conference, participants will, with respect to various countries, share information about and discuss topics such as: analytical methods of plastic waste, organic waste and food waste management, disaster waste management, and waste management during/after COVID-19. The "General Session" will cover a wide range of topics and be a good opportunity to publish research outputs as part of the proceedings e-book. There is also an opportunity to submit a full paper for the special issue of a well-known international journal.
Abstracts may be submitted until 1 February 2021; registration is required. 

If you are interested in this conference, please visit [IGES] for more information and fee details.

Recent book releases

Dean Strang, Keep the Wretches in Order: America's Biggest Mass Trial, the Rise of the Justice Department, and the Fall of the IWW, University of Wisconsin Press, 336 pages, November, 10, 2020, reviewed in [Isthmus].

Kerry K. Gershaneck, Political Warfare: Strategies for Combating China’s Plan to "Win Without Fighting", Marine Corps University Press, 190 pages, November 13, 2020, with a review in [Taiwan News].

Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, W. W. Norton, 384 pages, November 10, 2020, with a review in [The Guardian].

Harsh Madhusudan, and Rajeev Mantri, A New Idea of India: Individual Rights in a Civilisational State, Westland, 386, September 21, 2020, reviewed in [The Telegraph].

Calls

Population Europe invites to submit papers for its research topic “Families and Covid-19: An Interactive Relationship”. Closing date of submission is February 7, 2021. For more details, see [Population Europe].

The University of Padua invites to submit papers its conference “A Fragile State Monopoly? Policies and Practices of Gun Control and the Redefinition of State Prerogatives on the Global Stage, 1890s-1940s,” scheduled for March 25-26, 2021. Closing date for submission is December 31, 2020. Further information available at [networks.h-net].

The “Mihai Viteazul” National Intelligence Academy (Rumania) invites both academics and practitioners to submit papers for the 25th edition of its international conference “Intelligence in the Knowledge Society.” Closing date for submission is 30 January, 2021. For more information, see [IKS]

Jobs & positions

The University of the South is offering a position of Senior Research Associate to participate in research, publishing, and programming for the Roberson Project on Slavery, Race, and Reconciliation. Closing date for application is January 1, 2021. For more details, see [h-net.org].

The African and African Diaspora Studies Department at The University of Texas at Austin invites applications for the position of Director of the Institute for Urban Policy Research & Analysis (IUPRA). Closing date for application is January 29, 2021. Further details provided at [University of Texas].

The International Labor Organization is recruiting a National Project Coordinator, Mexico City, to be based in Mexico City. Applications can be submitted until January 4, 2021. More about the vacancy at [UN Jobs].

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