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July 8, 2021 - Brief Issue 225

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Everyone Who Died of Covid in Maryland in June was Unvaccinated (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Vaccine Related Blood Clots Linked to Amino Acids in Canadian Study (Health & Science)

CDC: Delta Variant Accounts for More Than Half of U.S. Cases (Health & Science)

World’s Reported Death Toll from Coronavirus Passes Four Million (Around the World)

Olympic Spectator Ban May be Back (Around the World)

Daily Deaths in Indonesia Nearly Double Due to Delta Variant (Around the World)

After Fears of Budget Crisis, Many States Now Flush with Cash as Economy Recovers and Stimulus Funds Arrive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Job Openings Hit Another Record High (U.S. Economy)

Treasury Bond Yields Hit New Low, Suggesting Concern About Economy (U.S. Economy)

Tallies of Prison Covid Deaths Likely Undercounts as Hospitalized Inmates Released Prior to Death (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,771,942 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 606,220 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 331,651,464 vaccine doses, with 55.1% of all Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 47.6% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older  67.2% have received at least one dose, and 58.4% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 185,177,568 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,004,006 deaths.

Everyone Who Died of Covid in Maryland in June was Unvaccinated

In a sign of the effectiveness and importance of vaccination, Maryland reported on Tuesday that everyone who died of Covid in the state in June was unvaccinated (WaPo). In addition, unvaccinated people accounted for the “vast majority of new cases and hospitalizations” in Maryland according to the data. The Washington Post reports, “In addition to the more than 100 reported coronavirus deaths in June, Marylanders who haven’t gotten inoculated made up 95 percent of the 2,385 new coronavirus cases and 93 percent of the 6,707 new coronavirus hospitalizations the state saw that month.”

Covid-19 Vaccine Related Blood Clots Linked to Amino Acids in Canadian Study

Canadian researchers have found a handful of amino acids targeted by key antibodies in the blood of some people who received the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, a development that could help explain the rare blood clots that have been associated with the shot. The peer-reviewed study was published online by the science journal Nature and was written by a team of researchers from McMaster University in Ontario. It analyzed blood samples from AstraZeneca vaccine recipients and used recent research from Europe and elsewhere to examine the rare blood clots, which are caused by an immune-driven mix of coagulation and loss of platelets that stop bleeding (WSJ). The findings could help doctors rapidly test for and treat the clotting issues so that the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine can continue. According to the Wall Street Journal, blood clots “occurred in 1 to 2 people per 100,000 first doses of the AstraZeneca shot in the U.K., with cases more common in people under 50. The total number of cases after first or second doses in the U.K. was 395 through June 23, of roughly 45.2 million doses administered. Of the 395, 70 people have died. European officials said this month that they have seen 479 potential cases of VITT out of 51.4 million AstraZeneca vaccinations, or just under 1 per 100,000 vaccinations.”

CDC: Delta Variant Accounts for More Than Half of U.S. Cases

On Tuesday, data released by the CDC reported that more than half of U.S. cases between June 20 and July 3 involved the Delta variant (Politico). Politico writes, “A CDC spokesperson told POLITICO surveillance data indicated the Delta variant jumped from 30.4 percent of cases for the two-week period ending June 19 to 51.7 percent between June 20 and July 3.” The percentage was even higher in some states with the variant accounting for more than 80% of cases across Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska.

Search for Patient Zero Continues

The search for the origins of the coronavirus pandemic continues, with epidemiologists and scientists trying to discover “patient zero,” the first person who contracted the novel coronavirus. Researchers all over the world are tracking clues and many of them are focusing on the joint WHO-China report that was released in March. That report traces the origins of the pandemic back as far as Patient S01, an accountant who shopped at a very large supermarket who started to feel ill on Dec. 8, 2019. But the details for patient S01 are unclear and some details are contradictory. “We can actually say surprisingly little about the pandemic origin,” said Sergei Pond, a Temple University biology professor, who has been analyzing some of the earliest SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequences (WaPo). “We are looking at very few sequences and trying to learn a lot about them.” 

In Europe, scientists have been trying to piece together when the virus emerged on the continent. In Milan, an oral swab taken from a 4-year-old boy who was suspected of having measles on Dec. 5, 2019  tested positive for coronavirus RNA months later. That swab was taken three days before the Chinese Patient S01’s symptoms began. In France, scientists believe they found hints of the virus even earlier, in November. Researchers from National Institute for Health and Medical Research reexamined over 9,000 serum samples banked as part of a public health project from November 2019 through March 2020 and found antibodies in samples collected in the first week of November. Some scientists believe the outbreak could have begun in China as early as October 2019 but the signs were missed because China was dealing with its worst flu season in more than a decade, with flu cases five times higher than the previous year. “It often takes years for scientists to establish the provenance and early infection path of a new disease,” writes the Washington Post, so patient zero might not be found for some time. 

Experts Caution Against Overemphasis on Recent Israeli Data Showing Drop in Vaccine Efficacy

As we covered in yesterday’s brief, Israel’s Ministry of Health announced on Monday that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine was 64% against all coronavirus infections, down from about 95% in May before the Delta variant began to dominate infections across the country. The drop in efficacy may seem alarming, but experts say it’s to be expected because it’s difficult for a single study to determine the effectiveness of a vaccine and cautioned against putting too much weight on the new study (NYT). Israel’s Ministry of Health did not go to such great lengths to rule out other factors that could contribute to lowering the efficacy rate, like the behavior of people being tested. “I am afraid that the current Israeli MoH analysis cannot be used to safely assess it, one way or another,” Uri Shalit, a senior lecturer at the Technion — Israel Institute of Technology, wrote on Twitter. What is important is that each study contributes more to the overall picture of vaccines and how they work against the virus. “We just have to take everything together as little pieces of a puzzle, and not put too much weight on any one number,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at Emory University. 

Around the World

World’s Reported Death Toll from Coronavirus Passes Four Million

On Thursday the world’s known death toll from the coronavirus passed four million, a number roughly equivalent to the population of Los Angeles (NYT). The pandemic claimed one million lives after the first nine months, and the number has grown more quickly since then. The second million died in just three and a half months, the third million in three months, and the fourth million in about two and a half months. The number of people killed is widely believed to be an undercount, as many countries face problems with testing and accurately recording deaths. 

Olympic Spectator Ban May be Back

Olympic organizers are reconsidering their announcement last month that they would allow some domestic spectators after Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike announced on Wednesday that a state of emergency would be reintroduced in Tokyo next week (WSJ). The end of the emergency would be set for Aug 22, two weeks after the Games are over. Coronavirus infections in Tokyo have reached their highest level since mid-May. Foreign spectators, including family members of the athletes, have already been banned. 

Daily Deaths in Indonesia Nearly Double Due to Delta Variant

On Wednesday the number of reported daily fatalities from Covid-19 rose to nearly double the previous number as the Delta variant spreads among a mostly unvaccinated population. The country reported a record 1,040 deaths from Covid-19 on Wednesday, up from 558 deaths two days ago. Hospitals are running out of beds and ventilators and fears of oxygen scarcity have prompted authorities to begin importing supplies from abroad. Hundreds of healthcare workers who were fully inoculated with shots from China’s Sinovac are infected with Covid-19, reducing the number of medical staff able to deal with the influx of patients. “Now we are in a very severe situation,” said Dicky Budiman, an Indonesian epidemiologist at Griffith University in Australia, adding that cases were likely to rise further in the coming days (WSJ). Doctors say the number of confirmed cases and deaths is undercounted as many people are dying in their homes without ever even being tested for the virus. Authorities believe the Delta variant is driving the surge. 

U.S. Government & Politics

After Fears of Budget Crisis, Many States Now Flush with Cash as Economy Recovers and Stimulus Funds Arrive

As the pandemic disrupted the U.S. economy, many state governments expressed concerns that they would face significant budget crises, but now as the U.S. economy is recovering and rapidly growing, several states report they are flush with cash (Politico). New Jersey, for example, just passed a budget with a multi-billion dollar surplus and its Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney stated, “No one would have ever dreamed that we would have this kind of funding.” Politico writes, “That’s not to say the needs weren’t significant, or that every state has since seen the same surge in revenue. All incurred massive costs from the pandemic, and the need for social programs only increased as the poorest Americans were hit the hardest. But from coast to coast, governors and lawmakers who were preparing to make difficult, politically-challenging moves are now faced with a surprise windfall.” As states find themselves dealing with surpluses, Politico notes that the available money is fueling political fights over how to use the surplus.

Also contributing to budget surpluses is the arrival of stimulus money slated for use by states and localities (NYT). The New York Times writes, “The stimulus package that President Biden signed into law in March was intended to stabilize state and city finances drained by the coronavirus crisis, providing $350 billion to alleviate the pandemic’s effect, with few restrictions on how the money could be used. Three months after its passage, cash is starting to flow — $194 billion so far, according to the Treasury Department — and officials are devoting funds to a range of efforts, including keeping public service workers on the payroll, helping the fishing industry, improving broadband access and aiding the homeless.” New York City, for example, passed its largest budget ever last week supported by $14 billion in stimulus funds.

Bonus Read: “The stimulus helped these Trump voters pay rent and bills. But they blame it for a range of economic ills,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “The Downtown Office District Was Vulnerable. Even Before Covid,” (NYT).

Job Openings Hit Another Record High

On Wednesday, the Labor Department released new data showing that job openings hit a record high again for late May (WSJ). In late May, job openings rose by 16,000, raising the total number of openings to its new, highest level since 2000 at 9.2 million jobs. The large number of openings has generated a tight labor market. The Wall Street Journal writes, “The number of available jobs nearly matched the 9.3 million Americans who were unemployed but actively seeking jobs in May, reflecting an unusual tightness in the job market. The number of unemployed workers has exceeded available jobs in data back to 2000, except for a period from 2018 to early 2020 when the unemployment rate trended near a 50-year low.”

Treasury Bond Yields Hit New Low, Suggesting Concern About Economy

On Wednesday, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds hit their lowest point in multiple months, a marker that investors may be concerned about the country’s economic prospects (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Yields on U.S. government bonds reached fresh multi-month lows on Wednesday, reflecting investors’ anxiety about the economic outlook and new concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19. In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 1.313%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 1.369% on Tuesday.” The low yield continues a months-long trend. Among the factors driving the low yields are according to the Journal, “investors reassessing their more optimistic economic forecasts amid signs that Congress and the Federal Reserve might not provide quite as much stimulus as previously anticipated.” The Journal also points to the role of “Underwhelming economic data has added to those concerns, along with new data from Israel suggesting Pfizer Inc. ’s vaccine is less effective at protecting against infections caused by the Delta variant.”

Bonus Read: “Travel Is Bouncing Back Strong, and Airlines Are Racing to Keep Up,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Tallies of Prison Covid Deaths Likely Undercounts as Hospitalized Inmates Released Prior to Death

The New York Times reports that tallies of the number of prison inmates who died of Covid may undercount the true death toll as multiple hospitalized inmates were released before they died (NYT). The New York Times writes, “Richard Williamson, 86, was rushed from a Florida jail to a hospital last July. Within two weeks, he had died of Covid-19. Hours after Cameron Melius, 26, was released from a Virginia jail in October, he was taken by ambulance to a hospital, where he died. The coronavirus, the authorities said, was among the causes. And in New York City, Juan Cruz, 57, who fell ill with Covid-19 while in jail, was moved from a hospital’s jail ward into its regular unit before dying.” The Times adds, “None of these deaths have been included in official Covid-19 mortality tolls of the jails where the men had been detained” noting that it has identified dozens of similar cases. More than 2,700 people are known to have died of Covid “in connection to U.S. prisons, jails and immigration detention centers” according to the Times, and the new reporting suggests the number may be even higher.

Bonus Read: “Ketchum, Idaho, Has Plenty of Available Jobs, but Workers Can’t Afford Housing,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Neil Shah writes on what’s dominating the music charts for a post-pandemic summer (WSJ).

Jim Geraghty argues the media is primed for panic over the Delta variant (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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