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The Fed’s Most Awkward Leadership Transition Is Coming

  • Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair is stalled amid a senator’s block over a Justice Department probe of Jerome Powell.
  • Warsh faces economic complications from rising inflation and political pressure from President Trump for lower interest rates.
  • Jerome Powell indicated he would remain Fed chair if no successor is confirmed by his term’s end.

 
Japan Companies Signal Biggest Wage Hike in 35 Years

  • Japanese companies are poised to give workers their most significant pay raise in 35 years, with Rengo reporting a 5.26% average wage increase.
  • The Bank of Japan is closely watching wage growth for rate hikes, but the Middle East conflict muddies the economic outlook for Japan.
  • The Middle East conflict threatens Japan’s industry, impacting naphtha imports and vehicle exports, while economists expect a BOJ rate hike.
Polish Inflation Holding Near Target Despite Iran War, Gov. Glapinski Says

  • The National Bank of Poland cut its main policy rate to 3.75% on March 4, defying European trends amid the Iran war due to confidence in contained inflation.
  • Governor Adam Glapinski cited weaker demand, slowing wages, and cheap imports as factors keeping inflation near target despite short-term energy price risks.
  • ING analysts expect Poland’s inflation to average above 3% this year, up from earlier forecasts, making further rate cuts unlikely.
Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

  • Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis plan to introduce a bipartisan bill to prohibit CFTC-regulated entities from listing sports and casino-style game contracts.
  • States and federal regulators have sparred over how prediction-market platforms, including sports, should be regulated, and by whom.
  • Nevada won a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, and Arizona filed criminal charges against its parent companies.
 

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