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February 11, 2021 - Brief Issue 152

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus Monday and Tuesday to mark Presidents’ Day.

Join New America on Feb. 16 for a discussion of what we’ve learned so far from the vaccine rollout with New America Chair and Co-chair, Committee on Equitable Allocation of Vaccine for the Novel Coronavirus for The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Dr. Helene Gayle, and New America Board Member Dr. Atul Gawande. RSVP here.

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Top Headlines

Half of All U.S. Covid-19 Deaths Have Occurred Since November 1 (Health & Science)

CDC Recommends Double Masking or Wearing a Better-Fitting Mask to Protect Against Covid-19 Variants (Health & Science)

WHO Panel Recommends AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use (Health & Science)

New U.S. Study Refutes Idea that Childhood Colds Protect Against Covid-19 (Health & Science)

Public Polling Shows Vaccine Reluctance Still High with Some Demographics (Health & Science)

No Need for Fully Vaccinated Individuals to Quarantine, Says CDC (Health & Science)

Ukrainian PM: Russia Using Vaccine as Political Propaganda (Around the World)

Germany Extends Lockdown Over Fear of Variants (Around the World)

U.K. Residents Might Not Be Able to Travel Until All Are Vaccinated (Around the World)

South Africa May Sell AstraZeneca Shot, Switches to J&J Vaccine (Around the World)

Migration in Panama Resumes After Lockdown (Around the World)

Lack of Action Repealing Work Visa Ban Raises Concern Among Immigrant Advocates and Businesses (U.S. Government)

Covid-19 Resurgence Hits Coca-Cola (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Toy Sales Up Amid the Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Delta Continues to Bet on Blocking Off Middle Seats as Other Airlines Continue to Book Them (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 27,287,176 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 471,567 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 324,710,596 tests and distributed 65,972,575 vaccine doses, with 44,769,970 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 107,379,255 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,355,576 deaths. At least 60,075,582 people have recovered from the virus.

Half of All U.S. Covid-19 Deaths Have Occurred Since November 1

The United States is finally coming down from a devastating winter surge of Covid-19. Half of the country’s 465,000 coronavirus deaths occurred in just over three months, between November 1 and February 8 (NYT). More than two-thirds of reported cases also occurred during that time, though cases were likely underreported in the spring at the beginning of the pandemic. Thirty-five states recorded more than half of their Covid-19 deaths since the beginning of November: some, like Wyoming and West Virginia, experienced nearly all of their Covid-19 deaths during the winter months. For 44 states, winter was the deadliest season, whether or not they recorded over 50% of their deaths during this time. For six states, including New York and New Jersey, which were hit hard early in the pandemic, the spring and summer seasons remain the deadliest. “Bonus Read: “Covid-19 cases are falling in the U.S. It could be a calm before a variant-driven storm, (STAT).

CDC Recommends Double Masking or Wearing a Better-Fitting Mask to Protect Against Covid-19 Variants

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended on Wednesday that Americans look for ways to improve mask fit and protection in the face of more-infectious Covid-19 variants that are beginning to spread around the country (NPR, WaPo, Politico). The CDC recommended two methods for optimal protection: wearing a cloth mask over a medical mask, and knotting the ear loops on a medical mask worn alone in order to close gaps at the sides of the mask.

The recommendations are based on a new CDC study that tested various mask configurations on dummies and simulated coughing and breathing to test how well the masks worked. The study found that an unknotted medical mask alone blocked about 42% of aerosol particles from a simulated cough. A cloth mask alone performed similarly, blocking about 44% of particles. However, a cloth mask layered over a medical mask blocked more than 92% of particles. In further experiments, the team found that when both the source and receiver dummies were fitted with double masks or with knotted medical masks, exposure of the receiver dummy to particles dropped more than 95%. Bonus Read: “Can’t Find an N95 Mask? This Company Has 30 Million That It Can’t Sell,” (NYT).

WHO Panel Recommends AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use

On Wednesday, a World Health Organization (WHO) advisory panel recommended AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, including in countries where spread of the B.1.351 variant is high (WSJ, Reuters). The B.1.351 variant, first identified in South Africa, was recently found to be less susceptible to the AstraZeneca vaccine. However, the panel chair, Dr. Alejandro Cravioto, said that the panel recommended that “even if there is a reduction in the possibility of this vaccine having a full impact in its protection capacity, especially against severe disease, there is no reason not to recommend its use even in countries that have circulation of the variant.” The recommendation could be followed by an official WHO authorization as early as next week, allowing low- and middle-income countries to begin receiving the vaccine through Covax, the WHO vaccine distribution program.

Primary Care Physicians Often Excluded from Vaccine Rollout Plans

Primary care physicians have been largely left out of Covid-19 vaccine rollout strategies, and some physicians say the exclusion is making vaccine distribution more difficult for their patients, particularly patients who are elderly and less Internet-savvy (NYT). While primary care doctors are usually important providers of adult immunizations, state officials have largely declined to work with them on the Covid-19 rollout, instead opting to use mass vaccination sites and turning to large pharmacy chains.

Speaking to the New York Times, several doctors expressed frustration that they could not supply their patients with needed vaccines or, often, even provide them with information on local distribution plans. Some said their elderly patients had difficulty navigating online sign-up systems, where vaccine appointments are often filled within minutes. Many have said they would be eager to provide the vaccine if given the chance. Despite their eagerness to participate, however, a survey conducted in January found that only one in five primary care physicians were providing the vaccine to their patients. Officials have acknowledged that primary care doctors, who build trusting relationships with their patients, play a strong role in educating and communicating with hesitant patients. Although demand currently outpaces supply, the trust patients have with their primary care doctors may become a crucial factor in reaching herd immunity vaccination levels later in the year.

New U.S. Study Refutes Idea that Childhood Colds Protect Against Covid-19

Early in the pandemic, a theory emerged that suggested that children are less susceptible to Covid-19 complications because they carry antibodies to other coronaviruses, which are responsible for common colds. This idea might have also explained why some adults experience less severe illness: perhaps they had antibodies against cold viruses that also helped neutralize SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

However, a new study published in the research journal Cell refutes this idea (NYT). In the study, researchers analyzed blood samples taken from patients before the Covid-19 pandemic. The study found that most of the samples from the pre-pandemic cohort contained antibodies that reacted with seasonal, cold-causing coronaviruses. About 20% of these samples had “cross-reactive” antibodies – antibodies that could also react with proteins from SARS-CoV-2. However, these antibodies were non-neutralizing, meaning they could not fight the virus. The researchers also analyzed serum from pre-pandemic patients who later went on to develop laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and compared this to serum from patients who did not become infected. They found that patients with pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies were just as likely to develop SARS-CoV-2 infections as those with no cross-reactive antibodies.

Public Polling Shows Vaccine Reluctance Still High with Some Demographics

New data from a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that about 60% of U.S. adults have received or definitely plan to receive the Covid-19 vaccine (WSJ). However, some demographics remain considerably less likely to accept a vaccine. Those in Southern states are less accepting of immunization, while those in the Northeast are more likely to say they plan on getting the shots. Age is also a factor: people over 65 are the most likely to say they will get a vaccine, while younger people are less likely to say the same. About one in three Black Americans say they definitely or probably will not get a vaccine, compared to one in five White and Hispanic Americans. Black and Hispanic populations have been among the hardest hit in the Covid-19 pandemic. Bonus Read: “Two-Thirds of Americans Not Satisfied With Vaccine Rollout,” (Gallup).

FDA Authorizes New Monoclonal Antibody Treatment

This week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized a Covid-19 therapy developed by drug maker Eli Lilly that combines two monoclonal antibody drugs (NYT, WSJ). The treatment combines bamlanivimab, which was authorized for use in November, with a second drug called etesevimab. Another dual-antibody treatment, developed by Regeneron, is also authorized for emergency use in the United States. Both treatments work by introducing artificial versions of the antibodies that fight off the coronavirus. Eli Lilly’s treatment is targeted at those in earlier stages of Covid-19 who are at high risk of severe disease. The treatment is authorized for those who are 65 and older and have certain medical conditions.

No Need for Fully Vaccinated Individuals to Quarantine, Says CDC

On Wednesday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that those who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 don’t need to quarantine if they are exposed to an infected individual (CNN). In order to meet CDC criteria for skipping quarantine, an individual must have received both doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or the Moderna vaccines, the only vaccines so far authorized in the U.S., with the last dose administered at least two weeks prior to exposure. The CDC also said it is unknown how long protection lasts, so those who had their last shot more than three months ago should still quarantine. Even vaccinated individuals should still monitor themselves for Covid-19 symptoms, the agency said. 

Bonus Reads: “The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired,” (NYT); “It’s not the ‘British variant.’ It’s B.1.1.7,” (STAT); “How Merck, a Vaccine Titan, Lost the Covid Race,” (NYT).

Around the World

Europe

Ukrainian PM: Russia Using Vaccine as Political Propaganda

The Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, said that Russia is trying to use its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to gain political influence in parts of Ukraine and Eastern Europe and called on the EU to counteract those efforts. Shmyhal, who is in Brussels for meetings with senior EU officials, told Politico, “It is important to admit here that the Russian Federation is trying actually to impose its own domestically produced vaccine especially as a tool for influencing some of those regions, specifically those that are not currently controlled by the Ukrainian government,” Shmyhal said. “And that is the case not only here but also in many Eastern European countries.” He added, “To counteract this political propaganda, it would be important for us to get a very strong signal that we are getting support from the European Union in terms of vaccination, and the best signal and the strongest one probably would be if we started to get the vaccines from the individual member states under the support of the Commission.” Shmyhal is not alone in his suspicion of Russia’s motives; Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said on Tuesday that her country would not use the Sputnik vaccine even if it is approved by the European Medicines Agency because it is part of “yet another geopolitical game” played by Russia. 

Germany Extends Lockdown Over Fear of Variants

Germany announced on Wednesday that the current lockdown would be extended through March 7, though schools and hair salons may open sooner (Reuters). Chancellor Angela Merkel made the announcement in a press conference following a meeting with Germany’s 16 state premiers and explained, “There is a lot of uncertainty around the mutants, and it is clear, they will gain the upper hand.... That is why we have to get the case numbers down, down, down,” Merkel told journalists in a news conference.” Under the new agreement, hair salons can reopen after March 1 and individual states can decide how to restart school classes. The government is now considering accelerating the inoculation of teachers and daycare staff (Der Spiegel). Merkel and the state leaders also agreed on a threshold for reopening the rest of the country: the infection rate must be below 35 new cases per 100,000 people over seven days. On Wednesday, that number was 68, down from a high of over 200 in late December. The last time it was below 50 was in October. 

U.K. Residents Might Not Be Able to Travel Until All Are Vaccinated

Britain’s transportation secretary, Grant Shapps, said on British television on Wednesday that international travel for U.K. residents would depend on “everybody having their vaccinations” in Britain and that restrictions could remain in place as long as other countries have not made significant progress in vaccinations (NYT). “We’ll need to wait for other countries to catch up as well, in order to do that wider international unlock,” Shapps said. He advised people not to book vacations within Britain or abroad for this year. Shapps’s warning came a day after authorities announced new travel restrictions, including prison sentences of up to 10 years for anyone traveling to Britain who lies about where they’ve been. The U.K. has administered more than 12.5 million vaccine doses, inoculating about 18% of its population -- one of the highest rates in the world -- and is on track to vaccinate the majority of the population by June. 

Europeans Don’t Expect to Return to the Office Before Summer, Says Survey 

European office workers’ expectations about when they will return to the office have shifted to summer or later, according to a survey of five countries by theAlphaWise unit at Morgan Stanley (Guardian). The U.K. continued to have the highest numbers of office workers working remotely at the end of January, for an average of 3.1 days a week, Morgan Stanley found, compared with employees in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Although the number of German workers working remotely increased in January to 2.5 days per week as the country extended its lockdown. In the future, about half of survey respondents said they hoped to work from home about two days a week. 

Africa

South Africa May Sell AstraZeneca Doses, Switches to J&J Vaccine

South Africa’s health minister said on Wednesday that the government may sell doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine that it may not need or swap it for a different vaccine as it looks to vaccinate its citizens with a different shot (Reuters). The move comes just days after South Africa paused the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine after a small clinical trial showed it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness from the 501Y.V2 variant that is now dominant in the country. One million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine arrived last week and another 500,000 were due in the coming weeks -- enough to inoculate 750,000 people. “Why not sell the AstraZeneca to other countries? Well it’s an option ... we will consider it. First our scientists will tell us what we do with it. Can we use it within the time that’s available ... before it expires?” Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said. “If not, can we swap it with anyone else, because we’ve discussed it with COVAX and with AVATT (the AU’s vaccine task team), so we will see what we will do.” He also said that 1.25 million frontline health care workers would be inoculated using the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is one shot instead of two, even though it has not yet received authorization for general use in any country yet (AP). Mkhize assured the public that the J&J vaccine is safe, saying it had been used in 44,000 people in trials so far. A clinical study showed that the J&J vaccine was 57% effective at preventing moderate Covid-19 when the variant was dominant. 

Americas

Migration in Panama Resumes After Lockdown

Hundreds of migrants have begun to move across Panama and into neighboring Costa Rica in recent weeks following almost a year of waiting in migrant camps due to the pandemic (AP). Panama closed its borders last March to try to slow the spread of coronavirus, causing almost 2,000 migrants to stall their long journey towards the United States. On Jan. 29, Panama announced it would reopen its land borders and since then, some 551 migrants left camps and moved towards the border with Costa Rico, according to Panama’s National Immigration Service. Idiam Osorio, a specialist with the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration in Panama, said the change of government in the U.S. was just one among a variety of factors spurring people to migrate. “We don’t dismiss that this issue (the new U.S. administration) is also connected to the growing motivation of migrants who have started to move, but the reasons are diverse, including economic (reasons),” she said.

U.S. Government & Politics

Lack of Action Repealing Work Visa Ban Raises Concern Among Immigrant Advocates and Businesses

Amid a lack of immediate action from the Biden administration, immigrant advocates and business groups are increasingly concerned about the possibility that a ban on work visa promulgated by President Trump last year in response to the pandemic could continue (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The ban, which former President Donald Trump put in place in April and expanded in June, was intended to block the entry of foreigners who might take open jobs while U.S. unemployment was soaring. It covers workers in a range of industries—from tech and consulting to landscaping and seasonal resorts—along with most family members of U.S. citizens looking to immigrate.” During the campaign, then-candidate Joe Biden criticized the ban, for example tweeting, “This is yet another attempt to distract from this Administration's failure to lead an effective response to COVID-19.” On Friday, more than 100 organizations sent a letter urging the revocation of the ban. The ban is set to expire in March, but many advocates see that as too late. 

Chicago Teachers Union Ratifies Deal on Reopening Schools

On Wednesday the Chicago Teachers Union announced that its membership had voted to ratify a deal with the city on processes for reopening in-person schooling (WSJ). The vote was 13,681 to 6,585 in favor. Despite the deal, union leadership remained critical of the city’s plan. Jesse Sharkey, the president of the union, stated, “This plan is not what any of us deserve. Not us. Not our students. Not their families,” adding, “The fact that CPS could not delay reopening a few short weeks to ramp up vaccinations and preparations in schools is a disgrace.” The union membership also passed a vote of no confidence in the mayor. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Chicago Public Schools Chief Executive Janice Jackson commented, “This vote reaffirms the strength and fairness of our plan, which provides families and employees certainty about returning to schools and guarantees the best possible health and safety protocols.”

Bonus Read: “Trump broke them. Now the pandemic is bringing them together,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Stocks Waver in Wednesday Trading, Pausing Market Rally,” (WSJ).

Covid-19 Resurgence Hits Coca-Cola

Coca Cola Co. reports that the pandemic had a larger impact on the company over the Winter than it had expected (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The company offered an outlook for 2021, saying the first half of the year would be challenging. Starting in December, ‘we saw more restrictions in place than we anticipated,’ finance chief John Murphy said in an interview.” Murphy added “we still think that with vaccine rollout building momentum in the coming weeks, the second half of the year will be very strong,” pointing to “pent-up demand.” In 2020, the company’s revenue fell 9%. The Journal writes, “The company reported declines in both profit and revenue in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. Depressed sales from restaurants and bars more than offset gains from consumers drinking sodas at home. The company said world-wide volumes fell 3% in the fourth quarter.” The company has also said it will lay off 2,200 of its 86,000 workers. 

U.S. Toy Sales Up Amid the Pandemic

U.S. toy sales increased in 2020, leaving major companies trying to assess whether the increased sales will continue in coming years or are a temporary result of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Widespread lockdowns and a lack of social interaction boosted U.S. toy sales 16% last year to more than $25 billion, according to research firm NPD Group Inc. Parents diverted spending on canceled vacations and summer camps to in-home diversions. Stimulus payments helped the industry too.” The CEO of the game and toy giant Hasbro told the Journal, “We brought in these new families who may have had some prior experience with gaming, but it wasn’t really top of mind.” He, at least, expects the growth to continue. According to the Journal, Hasbro saw almost a 30% increase in its January retail sales.

U.S. Society

Bonus Listen: “Coronavirus Testing Remains A Problem For Farmworkers, Meatpackers,” (NPR).

Delta Continues to Bet on Blocking Off Middle Seats as Other Airlines Continue to Book Them

On Monday, Delta Air Lines announced that it would continue to block off middle seats when selling tickets on its flights until at least April (WSJ). Bill Lentsch, the company’s chief customer experience officer told the Wall Street Journal, “This is really about playing the long game and making sure that we are positioning this brand for greater success coming out of the pandemic.” However, he added the ban can’t continue forever, and the Journal notes that Delta has seen “bigger losses than rival airlines selling all their seats,” pointing out that “Delta was the most profitable U.S. airline in the final six months of 2019. That flipped during the pandemic. In the last six months of 2020, Delta had the biggest losses, with a net loss of more than $6 billion, greater than United and Southwest combined.” In contrast, Sangita Woerner, Alaska Airlines senior vice president of marketing and guest experience told the Journal, “It’s a bit of a consumer myth that the middle seat has to be open. We don’t believe that’s true. We believe the middle seat can be occupied with all the different layers of safety.”

Analysis & Arguments

Ryan Grim reports on Senator Jeff Merkley’s (D-OR) warning that not delivering checks is a good way for Democrats to lose Georgia (Intercept).

The New Yorker examines how the pandemic is shaping people’s dreams (New Yorker).

Emma Buetel writes on the “queen of quarantine karaoke” (Texas Monthly).

The National Review argues against raising the minimum wage (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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