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Venezuela Presents Challenge for Oil Producers, Boon for U.S. Refiners; Tariff-Evasion Crackdown Looms

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

Chevron's El Segundo refinery in California. ASHLEY LANDIS/AP

Tempting American oil producers to flock back to Venezuela poses a challenge, even as greater access to the South American nation’s heavy crude promises to benefit U.S. refiners.

Energy executives will be forced to gauge stability in a country where the industry has fallen into disarray after more than two decades of mismanagement and corruption. In addition, the world doesn’t have much appetite for more oil, with prices languishing below $60 a barrel, the WSJ’s Collin Eaton, Kejal Vyas and David Uberti write. The only U.S. oil major in Venezuela now is Chevron, which secured a new, more-limited license to operate there from the Trump administration in July.

Other big oil companies will likely take time to evaluate the situation because Venezuela has a track record of appropriating oil assets, analysts said. Rebuilding rusted oil-field installations also will require an economic-stabilization plan to attract financing, as well as changes to laws. And the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control will have to clear a pathway around sanctions in place on Venezuela’s government and state oil company, PdVSA, Dow Jones Risk Journal’s Max Fillion writes.

American oil refiners, however, stand to be big beneficiaries if Venezuela’s vast crude reserves flow more freely into the world market, the Journal’s Ryan Dezember reports. Refineries along the Gulf and West coasts were generally designed to handle heavy, sour crude imported from Venezuela and Mexico, not the light, sweet crude with which U.S. frackers have swamped the market. That is a big reason many U.S. refiners have struggled despite the drilling boom.

  • Trump offered an incentive to China to support the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader–which Beijing condemned– suggesting the Latin American country will supply even more oil to world’s No. 2 economy. (WSJ)
  • Moscow formally requested that the U.S. stop pursuing the oil tanker Bella 1, which had been sailing for Venezuela but fled from the Coast Guard and claimed Russian protection. (New York Times)
 
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Nicolás Maduro HANDOUT/REUTERS

President Trump and his top advisers had for months telegraphed their plans to take down Nicolás Maduro. And yet, when it finally happened, Washington and Caracas were stunned by the ferocity and speed of the incursion. WSJ reporters take you inside Operation Absolute Resolve, the U.S. incursion that deposed Maduro.

 

Global Trade

The Justice Department is set in the coming year to bring a wave of criminal tariff-evasion cases, Dow Jones Risk Journal’s Max Fillion writes. As the Trump administration’s slaps steep tariffs on nations worldwide and prosecutors in Washington prioritize cracking down on those that evade them, white-collar lawyers say it is only a matter of time before the Department of Justice files a slew of criminal cases against companies.

This could result in the kinds of multimillion-dollar settlements common in other areas of white-collar law. An uptick in criminal tariff-evasion charges would mark a departure from DoJ’s previous approach to charge such schemes—which often involve falsifying shipping documents to undervalue goods or disguising where they came from—as civil violations.

More criminal cases could run parallel to civil actions, adding to reputational risk, financial and legal penalties for companies and potential jail time for individual participants.

 
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Number of the Day

12.3 Million

Metric tons of soybeans inspected for export in the first quarter of Marketing Year 2025/26, from Sept. 1 through Nov. 30, down 46% from the prior five-year average, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture

 

Reverse Logistics

Paul Caldeira, who works for ReturnQueen, picks up packages to return to retailers. MATT GENOVESE for WSJ

Merchants expect four out of five people will return an unwanted gift within a month of receiving it, and 17% of holiday purchases will be sent back, according to the National Retail Federation. Total retail returns were estimated to reach $850 billion last year.

This is leading to a mushrooming market for gig workers and businesses willing to schlep unwanted purchases to retailers or the UPS store, the WSJ’s Natasha Khan writes. Taskrabbit saw a 62% year-over-year increase in return-related bookings during November and December, with more people hiring its “taskers” to do the return leg work. ReturnQueen, a six-year-old startup, expected a 15% to 20% increase in January and February, historically the biggest months for returns.

 

Quotable

“This real-time visibility gives organizations the power to independently verify the health of their supply chain and take action before a provider’s vulnerability becomes their own crisis.”

— Jeanette Miller-Osborn, field cyber intelligence officer at Dataminr, on using AI to help secure supply chains
 

In Other News

  • The Asian manufacturing sector wrapped up 2025 on an optimistic note as survey data signaled increasing factory activity, though rising cost pressures could cloud recovery. (WSJ)
  • Trade in goods between the U.S. and Mexico was on track to reach a record of nearly $900 billion in 2025, despite steep tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum bound for America. (WSJ)
  • Singapore’s economy logged stronger-than-expected growth in 2025 on manufacturing and construction expansion. (WSJ)
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to juice consumer spending and bolster India’s economy are showing signs of success, allowing him to hold the line in trade talks with the U.S. (WSJ)
  • Tesla lost its place as the world’s No. 1 EV seller to China’s BYD after reporting a 9% drop in sales for 2025, the second straight drop in annual vehicle deliveries. (WSJ)
  • Rivian’s production and delivery totals declined in the fourth quarter, after a key tax credit for EVs expired. (WSJ)
  • Saks Global’s CEO is stepping down ahead of an expected bankruptcy filing, with the executive chairman taking over. (WSJ)
  • Danish and Norwegian energy companies Orsted and Equinor are seeking injunctions against the Trump administration’s order halting construction of all U.S. offshore wind projects. (WSJ)
  • France plans to ban imports of food that contain pesticides prohibited for use in the European Union. (Bloomberg)
  • Japan plans to push for consolidation of its shipbuilding sector and to boost capacity and cut construction costs to counter China’s industry dominance. (Lloyd’s List)
  • The operator of Mumbai’s main airport plans to suspend freighter operations between this coming August and May of 2027 to upgrade infrastructure. (Air Cargo News)
  • China’s Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers ordered four heavy-lift ships for $213 million to serve the wind-power market. (TradeWinds)
 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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