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November 30, 2020 - Brief Issue 123

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Twice as Many Covid-19 Cases Reported in November Than in October; Cases Likely to Increase Further; Covid-19-Related Hospitalizations and Deaths Continue to Rise (Health & Science)

AstraZeneca to Begin Additional Vaccine Trials Following Questions Over Initial Data (Health & Science)

Neighborhood Grocery Stores to Become Major Covid-19 Vaccine Providers (Health & Science)

Vaccine Distribution Presents Challenges, Particularly for Rural America (Health & Science)

Studies Find No Benefit for Hydroxychloroquine or Convalescent Plasma (Health & Science)

Police Arrest 150 in London Protests; U.K. Moves to Tiered System for Restrictions as Government Secures More Doses of Moderna’s Vaccine (Around the World)

Turkey Changes the Way It Counts Cases, Number of Infections Quadruples and Hits Record High for Seventh Consecutive Day (Around the World)

South Korea Bans Year-End Parties as Cases Spike (Around the World)

Cases Climb in South Africa Ahead of Peak Travel Season (Around the World)

87 Million American Workers Face Loss of Paid Leave (U.S. Government)

McConnell Temporarily Bans GOP Senate Lunches (U.S. Government)

Amazon Added Record 427,300 in 10 Months (U.S. Economy) 

Black Friday Sees Record Online Purchases as Brick and Mortar Shopping Cut in Half (U.S. Economy)​

NFL in Crisis Over Infections, Restrictions (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 13,384,651 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 266,875 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 5,581,436 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 191,149,006 tests. Worldwide, there have been 62,787,929 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,460,179 deaths. At least 40,168,970 people have recovered from the virus.

Twice as Many Covid-19 Cases Reported in November Than in October; Cases Likely to Increase Further; Covid-19-Related Hospitalizations and Deaths Continue to Rise

As of Saturday, more than four million cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the United States for the month of November, over twice the record-breaking 1.9 million cases recorded in October (NYT). The number was reported as millions of Americans traveled for Thanksgiving, with over one million passengers clearing airport security the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (WaPo). Experts say numbers are likely to continue surging over the coming weeks.

“We are on track to continue this accelerated pace of the epidemic and see even more speed of rise of cases because of the movement indoors, of activities around the country and because large numbers of people have moved around the country for the holidays,” said Tom Inglesby, the director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University.

Hospitals across the nation are facing the strain of high Covid-19 caseloads. Some have resorted to makeshift rooms, and hospital staff are spread thin. Some hospitals have had to turn away patients or suspend elective procedures. Dr. Michael Osterholm, a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid-19 advisory council, said that health care systems “are on the verge of breaking” and urged the public to recognize the seriousness of the situation (NYT).

On Saturday, more than 91,000 people in the United States were hospitalized with Covid-19, more than at any other point during the pandemic. On Wednesday, nearly 2,300 people died from Covid-19, the deadliest day since May. The seven-day average of daily deaths was 1,436 as of Saturday (COVID Tracking Project). 

AstraZeneca to Begin Additional Vaccine Trials Following Questions Over Initial Data

After scientists raised doubts about the initial vaccine trial results, drug company AstraZeneca announced that it would be conducting additional clinical trials (Newsweek). Last week, AstraZeneca became the third company, after Pfizer and Moderna, to announce promising clinical trial results for a Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company reported an overall efficacy of approximately 70%, with 90% efficacy achieved in a group that received a half dose followed by a full dose.

The more successful method was tested by accident, after a contractor accidentally administered half doses to volunteers. No volunteers in this group were over 55, an age group that is more susceptible to Covid-19. The new trials will be focused on validating the half dose plus full dose method, according AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot. 

Vaccine Distribution Presents Challenges, Particularly for Rural America

Three vaccine makers – Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca – have announced positive clinical trial results over the past couple of weeks. Pfizer and Moderna expect to be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration early next month. Vaccine development and approval, however, are not the end of the road. For many regions, distribution presents significant challenges.

The vaccine developed by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, likely to be approved in the U.S. in December, has already been flown into the States from Belgium in preparation for distribution (The Hill). However, the vaccine must be stored at -70 degree Celsius, far colder than a conventional freezer. Ultra-cold freezers are expensive and typically only used by research laboratories, which are often located in large urban areas. Poorer and more rural areas – which are already at increased risk of Covid-19 – are at a disadvantage. A spokesperson from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, however, emphasized that vaccines at risk of expiring could be redirected to areas with higher demand, reducing the need for long-term storage.

Aside from the logistical challenges, officials are also concerned about vaccine skepticism. Some people are hesitant to accept a vaccine developed under the Trump administration; others mistrust the medical community or the speed with which the vaccine was developed. Still others believe the virus itself is a hoax. In Alabama, a state with large rural populations and significant racial disparities, focus groups are preparing to investigate these concerns more deeply in order to tailor public messaging about the vaccine (WaPo, STAT). 

Neighborhood Grocery Stores to Become Major Covid-19 Vaccine Providers

Dozens of supermarkets and pharmacies, including Albertsons, CVS, and Kroger, are set to become an integral part of administering Covid-19 vaccines. In cooperation with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ “Operation Warp Speed,” these businesses are hurrying to secure medical supplies, train staff, and establish online scheduling services. Grocers and pharmacies have already become major testing sites during the pandemic, and many have offered flu vaccines for years. Still, most of these businesses will require additional equipment and staff to handle Covid-19 vaccine administration. Close coordination with state and federal agencies will also be essential as businesses prepare to distribute the critical vaccines (WSJ).

New York City Schools to Reopen for Pre-K and Elementary Students

In a surprise reversal after mid-November school closures, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Sunday that the city’s public elementary schools would return to in-person learning starting December 7. Middle and high schools will remain closed for now, but the city will reconsider its management of school closures. In particular, the 3% test positivity threshold will be abandoned. Even with cases rising again in New York City, cases have remained low in schools, and closures have prompted criticism that the city is prioritizing economic interests like restaurants and bars over the education and mental health of its students (NYT, WSJ).

Singaporean Baby Born with Covid-19 Antibodies

A Singaporean woman who was infected with Covid-19 during her pregnancy reportedly gave birth to a baby who was born without Covid-19 but with antibodies against the virus. The case may provide new clues as to whether infections can be transferred from a mother to her developing fetus. Doctors in China have reported the detection of Covid-19 antibodies in babies born to infected women, though transmission from mothers to newborns is thought to be rare (Reuters).

Seroprevalence Studies Indicate Less Than 10 Percent of Americans had Covid-19 by September

A report published last week in JAMA Internal Medicine found that less than 10% of Americans had evidence of a prior coronavirus infection as of September (CIDRAP). The seroprevalence survey tested a total of 177,919 blood samples from people in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Antibody prevalence varied widely by geographic region, with the highest levels observed in New York and New Jersey, which were early hotspots, and lower levels observed in the now hard-hit Western and Midwestern states.

The authors of the study acknowledged that it was likely to have underestimated the number of people who had been previously infected, as detectable antibodies wane over time. It is not yet completely understood what levels of antibodies are required for immunity. However, according to an accompanying commentary, the levels of antibody found in the study indicate that “herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is nowhere in sight.” The commentary offered hope that a vaccine would help the U.S. to “avoid the consequences of naturally developing herd immunity to Covid-19.”

Studies Find No Benefit for Hydroxychloroquine or Convalescent Plasma

Two studies published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine found that preventative hydroxychloroquine treatment did not prevent development of Covid-19 and that convalescent plasma treatment in hospital patients did not lead to clinical improvements (CIDRAP).

The first study examined 2,314 contacts of 672 Covid-19 patients. Of these, 1,116 were prescribed hydroxychloroquine and 1,198 received standard care. The percentage of contacts who contracted symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 within 14 days of exposure were similar in both groups: 5.7% for the treated group and 6.2% for the untreated group. The percentage of those with either Covid-19 symptoms or a positive laboratory test regardless of symptoms was also similar between the groups: 18.7% vs. 17.8%. The authors of the study wrote that “despite the promising in vitro results that placed hydroxychloroquine among the leading candidates for COVID-19 treatment and prophylaxis, there are no compelling data to suggest that hydroxychloroquine is effective.”

The second study examined 333 Covid-19 patients hospitalized with severe pneumonia and low oxygen levels. In the double-blind randomized trial, 228 patients received convalescent serum, while 105 received placebo treatment. There was no statistical difference in the death rate between each group at 30 days. The group receiving convalescent plasma had a 10.96% mortality rate, while the placebo group had a mortality rate of 11.43%. The authors of the study wrote that “the use of convalescent plasma as a standard of care in such patients should be reevaluated.”

FDA to Make Vaccine Authorization Decisions ‘Within a Few Weeks’ of Dec. 10 Meeting

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has scheduled a meeting to review data from two vaccines, one developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and the other developed by Moderna, on December 10. Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said Wednesday that the authorization decisions would be made within weeks of the meeting (CNN).

"It's possible it could be within days, but our goal is to make sure it's certainly within a few weeks,” Marks said. Pfizer and BioNTech are the only group to have applied to the FDA for emergency use authorization so far, with Moderna expected to follow suit very soon.

Bonus Reads: ‘A Geneticist’s Dilemma: A growing number of scientists believe that the cure for disease can be found in our DNA. But that poses a unique problem for some Native Americans,’ (WaPo); ‘Remote school is leaving children sad and angry,’ (WaPo).

Around the World

Europe

Bonus Read: “The Lost Days that Made Bergamo A Coronavirus Tragedy” (NYT) 

Police Arrest 150 in London Protests; U.K. Moves to Tiered System for Restrictions as Government Secures More Doses of Moderna’s Vaccine

On Saturday the British police arrested over 150 people as they shut down an anti-lockdown protest in central London near Westminster (NYT). The Metropolitan Police said those they arrested were violating coronavirus regulations, assaulting police officers, and/or committing various drug-related offenses. The protestors were gathering to demonstrate their displeasure with the government’s current lockdown measures, which is scheduled to end on Dec. 2, when different restrictions will take effect. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new set of restrictions last week that will divide England into three tiers of restrictions, meaning that access to bars and restaurants will differ drastically from place to place based on the government’s threat assessment. It is expected that the more than 23 million people who live in the most restricted tier will still be banned from visiting pubs or dining out. However, even in the worst-hit areas, shops, gyms, and hair salons will be allowed to reopen and religious services, weddings, and outdoor sports can all begin again.  The latest interim findings from Imperial College London’s React study showed that the number of new cases fell by 30% by the third week of the national lockdown.

On Sunday, the government said that they had secured two million doses of Moderna Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate (Reuters). The vaccine is expected to be available in Europe as early as the spring. The additional two million doses add to the five million doses the government already secured from the company two weeks ago. The new deal came just a day after Prime Minister Johnson named Nadhim Zahawi, a junior business minister, to be responsible for the deployment of Covid-19 vaccines. Britain now has enough doses of Moderna’s vaccine for around 3.5 million people; this is along with doses secured from seven other developers that total 357 million doses, according to a government statement.  

Turkey Changes the Way It Counts Cases, Number of Infections Quadruples and Hits Record High for Seventh Consecutive Day

Turkey’s government has resumed reporting all positive coronavirus tests, not just the number of patients being treated for symptoms, confirming what medical groups and opposition parties have suspected for a while: the country’s health system is overwhelmed by coronavirus cases (AP). With the new data, the number of daily cases rose to above 30,000 and pushed the country to the top of the list of worst-hit countries in Europe. The Turkish Medical Association has been warning for months that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government was concealing the gravity of the situation by their selective reporting methods and lack of transparency. With the change in methodology, the country’s caseload almost quadrupled from about 7,400 to 28,300. The healthcare system is near collapse as hospitals are overstretched and staff are burned out and contract tracers are struggling to keep up. Last week, Erdogan announced a series of restrictions in hopes of stopping the spread without impacting the already weakened economy. He introduced curfews for the first time since June, but limited them to weekend evenings, closed down restaurants and cafes except for takeout services and restricted the opening hours of malls, shops and hairdressers. Opposition parties denounced the measures as “half-baked;” the death toll hit a record high for the seventh consecutive day on Sunday with 185 fatalities in the last 24 hours (Guardian). 

Europe Can’t Agree on the Ski Season

As the holidays and ski season draw nearer, European nations are struggling to coordinate a response to the coronavirus when it comes to the slopes. Leaders in France, Germany, and Italy said this week that ski slopes would remain closed through the end of the year but Austria and Switzerland vowed to reopen their resorts. It’s the latest challenge in the European Union’s months-long struggle to mount a unified front against the coronavirus and coordinate measures across borders. Each country has imposed their own restrictions, with some imposing new lockdowns this month while others ease restrictions ahead of the holidays. As the New York Times writes, “Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has called for a European Union-wide ban on ski tourism, and President Emmanuel Macron of France has argued that the risks linked to the coronavirus make it impossible to allow winter sports. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy said the winter holidays would lead to a third wave of infections and called for a coordinated response by at least these three countries.” Yet, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of Austria called efforts to close resorts “exaggerated” and pointed out that the EU has no standing to order member states to ban sports. In the spring, coronavirus cases spread rapidly throughout Europe after several dozen people were infected in the Austrian ski town Ischgl. Authorities are now investigating that incident and a consumer group is suing the government for damages, saying officials did not respond quickly enough to that outbreak. Markus Söder, the governor of Germany’s southern region of Bavaria, which neighbors Austria, said it was vital not to overlook the risks involved. “Half of Europe was infected through Ischgl in the spring,” he said. “This is no joke.”

Asia

South Korea Bans Year-End Parties as Cases Spike 

South Korean authorities banned year-end parties and some music lessons on Sunday and warned that public saunas and some cafes will also close as coronavirus cases surged again (Reuters). Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said restrictions would be tightened on gatherings and activities seen as prone to virus transmission, especially in the capital Seoul and surrounding urban areas (AP). South Korea has been one of the countries most successful in keeping coronavirus cases under control, but infections have reappeared repeatedly. Authorities said there were 450 new infections on Sunday following three consecutive days of more than 500 cases each day and are calling the current climb in cases the third wave. Infections are now spreading at the fastest rate in almost nine months. 

In Japan, Suicide is Far Deadlier than Covid-19

Japanese government statistics indicate that more people in Japan have died by suicide in October than by Covid-19 in all of 2020 (CNN). According to the report, women are particularly affected. In October, suicides among women increased by 83% compared to the same month last year. By contrast, suicide rates increased by 22% for men. Women are more likely to work part-time in service industries, which have had to lay off many workers. Women are also more likely to take on additional, unpaid childcare responsibilities when schools and daycares close their doors.

As one of the few nations to release timely suicide data, Japan could provide valuable insights into the mental health toll wrought by the pandemic. Dr. Michiko Ueda, a suicide expert at Waseda University in Tokyo, believes other countries are experiencing similar increases.

“We didn’t even have a lockdown, and the impact of Covid is very minimal compared to other countries ... but still we see this big increase in the number of suicides,” said Ueda. “That suggests other countries might see a similar or even bigger increase in the number of suicides in the future.”

Africa

Cases Climb in South Africa Ahead of Peak Travel Season

Coronavirus cases are increasing in South Africa’s Eastern Cape and the neighboring Western Cape, with Premier Alan Winde issuing a “hot spot alert” on Thursday for the metropolitan area that includes Cape Town (NYT). Cases have increased in the Western Cape by 52% in the past week, reaching 126,362 cases last Wednesday. The province is home to some of South Africa’s wealthiest and poorest townships. Officials have warned that the coming holiday season when many people travel to villages or holiday homes could lead to an uptick in cases. On Nov. 15 South Africa lifted all international travel restrictions ahead of what would normally be its peak tourist season, when as many as 10 million foreigners head to the country’s pristine beaches and game safaris. “We also cannot afford a lockdown again, as is being witnessed in many European countries right now,” Mr. Winde said. “Our economy simply cannot afford it.”

U.S. Government & Politics

87 Million American Workers Face Loss of Paid Leave

As many as 87 million Americans could lose access to paid sick and family health leave at the end of the year if a congressional relief package is not renewed. Under the Families First relief package enacted in March, millions of workers in both the public and private sectors are entitled to two weeks of coronavirus-related sick leave at full pay and 12 weeks of leave to care for family members with the virus at two-thirds pay. The bill, which costs about $105 billion, covers about half of the U.S. workforce. Unions, labor law experts and members of Congress warn, however, that the ongoing political stalemate over a new coronavirus relief bill will sever the aid amid an anticipated continued surge in cases. “Letting this policy expire would put millions of workers at risk of having to make the impossible choice between their health and their paycheck, and undermine our recovery efforts,” Senator Patty Murray of Washington state, the top Democrat on the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, told Politico. Conservatives, however, have blamed the deadlock on House Majority leader Nancy Pelosi. “Unfortunately for American workers, families, and small businesses, Speaker Pelosi has been too busy appeasing her far-left Members by prioritizing a radical wish list that is unrelated to COVID-19," Rep. Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, the top Republican on the House Education and Labor Committee, said in a statement (Politico).

McConnell Temporarily Bans GOP Senate Lunches

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Saturday ordered a temporary suspension on in-person lunches for the Senate Republican caucus amid two high profile coronavirus cases within their ranks. The Republican caucus has held indoor socially-distanced lunches inside the Senate Hart building since May. In recent weeks, however, Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have been diagnosed with the coronavirus while Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) tested positive shortly before a followup test came back negative. Republican senators Rand Paul (Ky.), Bill Cassidy (La.), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) have also tested positive since the pandemic’s start. A senate leadership aide told Politico that none of the cases were linked to the lunches or floor activity. Floor votes will continue to take place, with pre-existing public health precautions remaining in place, when the Senate returns to work today (Politico).

Colorado Governor Tests Positive For Coronavirus; PA State Senator Learned He Tested Positive During Meeting with President Trump

Colorado Governor Jared Polis announced that he and and his partner have both tested positive for the coronavirus. “This evening I learned that First Gentleman Marlon Reis and I have tested positive for COVID-19. We are both asymptomatic, feeling well, and will continue to isolate at home,” the governor tweeted on Saturday night. The governor, who continues to work remotely, began quarantining on Wednesday after learning that he was exposed to someone who later tested positive. Cases have been spiking across Colorado, with the state estimating last Tuesday that one in 41 people in the state are contagious. Polis used his infection to warn other Coloradoans, saying that “no person or family is immune to the virus” (Denver Post).

Pennsylvania state senator Doug Mastriano abruptly left a West Wing meeting with President Donald Trump after being informed he had tested positive for the coronavirus, a person with direct knowledge of the meeting told The Associated Press on Sunday. The Republican state senator had gone to the White House on Wednesday to discuss efforts to overturn President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the state. Mr. Trump told Mr. Mastriano that White House medical personnel would take care of him, his son, and his son’s friend, who were also there for the Oval Office meeting and also tested positive. The meeting continued after Mr. Mastriano and the others left, according to the AP’s source.

U.S. Economy

Amazon Added Record 427,300 in 10 Months

Amazon’s hiring binge amid the pandemic with no precedent in corporate America as the online retail giant added 1,400 new workers daily in the past 10 months. Most of the 427,300 new employees are warehouse workers hired to keep up with the firm’s spike in business, which has boomed over consumer fears of using brick and mortar retail amid the public health crisis. Software and hardware developers were also added to cater to the pandemic-induced surge in the popularity of cloud computing and streaming services. The true number, however, of the workforce’s contribution to Amazon may have surpassed one million workers as the official statistics do not include roughly 500,000 contracted delivery drivers and 100,000 temps recruited for the holiday shopping season. Amazon’s speed of employee growth this year is almost double the record set by Walmart, the world’s largest employer, which added 230,000 new workers in a single year two decades ago. Economists and historians have pointed to the World War II-era hiring surges, which took place across entire industries to service wartime enterprises, as the best comparison to Amazon’s boom (NYT).

Black Friday Sees Record Online Purchases as Brick and Mortar Shopping Cut in Half

Friday’s post-Thanksgiving shopping extravaganza saw sales nearly halved compared to 2019 at brick and mortar shops while online purchases surged. The traffic at physical stores dropped 52%, according to a report from Sensormatic Solutions. But Friday also proved to be the second biggest online spending day in U.S. history with an estimated total revenue of $7.4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, topped only by last year’s Cyber Monday. This year’s Cyber Monday is poised to hit at least $10.8 billion, according to Adobe, setting yet a new record. "What we're seeing this year is $1 out of every $4 this season is being spent online. And that's a marked increase from last year when it was about $1 out of every $5," Adobe's senior digital insights manager Vivek Pandya told CNN Business. The trend toward online shopping is likely to continue through the Christmas season, according to industry experts. As social distancing causes shoppers to be more “purposeful” when visiting physical stores, Brian Field, Sensormatic’s senior director of global retail consulting, said he expects foot traffic to drop 22%. An upward spike is expected to occur starting December 19, however, as customers go to stores for last minute shopping prior to Christmas Day (CNN).

U.S. Society

NFL in Crisis Over Infections, Restrictions

Doubt looms over the 2020 NFL season as coronavirus exposures cripple team rosters while public health measures interfere with training. The Denver Broncos are without quarterbacks after Jeff Driskel tested positive for the virus on Thursday, forcing the team’s three other quarterbacks to quarantine. The NFL denied the Broncos’ request to postpone their Sunday game against the New Orleans Saints, forcing Denver to field wide receiver Kendall Hinton as an impromptu quarterback for most of the game. The Broncos lost 31-3 (ESPN). In Baltimore, the Ravens have seen at least one player infected over the past eight days, with 18 players currently benched due to the outbreak, as it prepares for its Tuesday game against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers after two previous postponements (ESPN). The San Francisco 49ers are also in turmoil after Santa Clara County, where the team is based, banned all contact sports from the high school through professional levels. The rise in cases within the NFL, which does not bubble its players, is expected to mirror nationwide trends in the coming months. All teams are currently banned by the league from practicing on Monday and Tuesday due to concerns of Thanksgiving-related outbreaks. On Sunday, it announced that it had fined the Saints $500,000 for celebrating without masks in the locker room after its November 8 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NYT).

Bonus Read: “Mall Santas Brave the Pandemic With Plexiglass Barriers, Sanitation Elves and Snow-Globe Bubbles,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Annie Lowry asks why the American economy is surviving when the government’s coronavirus response has been failing individuals (The Atlantic). 

Jerry Brewer argues that the NFL’s refusal to create bubble environments for players has turned the 2020 season into a farce as the coronavirus wipes out team rosters (WaPo).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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