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What the November Jobs Report Means for the Fed
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Tuesday’s employment data are unlikely to significantly shift the Federal Reserve’s calculus as it weighs whether to continue cutting interest rates. The next report, due in early January, should carry more weight and provide the cleaner read that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested the central bank needs. Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate to be the next Fed chair, said Tuesday on CNBC that the central bank’s independence is “really, really important” and he’d make decisions on lowering rates by consensus. The process to find the Fed's next chief continues, with President Trump set to interview Fed governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday. Elsewhere, Thailand’s central bank took its last window of opportunity this year to give the economy some support, resuming rate cuts as growth stagnates and risks mount. And Indonesia’s central bank held interest
rates steady, opting against an easing move as it seeks to stabilize the rupiah.
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What the November Jobs Report Means for the Fed
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Photo: Li Yuanqing/Zuma Press
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Tuesday’s employment report showed hiring conditions were soft enough in November to validate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's push for rate cuts at the central bank’s last three meetings. But they may not have been alarming enough to demand another cut in January, particularly given that the federal shutdown impaired data collection.
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Fed Independence Is ‘Really, Really Important,’ Hassett Says
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Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director, said that if President Trump asked him to lower rates, and he agreed as chair of the Fed, he would consult with the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC. “If he’s got a good reason, and if I were there, and I found that I agreed to the reason, then I’d present it to others and see what they think,” Hassett said, then added, “The way you’ve got to drive interest-rate movements is with consensus based on the facts and the data.”
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Trump Set to Interview Fed’s Christopher Waller for Chair
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Fed Should Pause Cuts or Risk Diminished Credibility, Bostic Says
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Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve should pause further interest rate cuts, warning that inflation remains too high and that lowering borrowing costs too much could weaken the central bank’s credibility. (Barron's)
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Bank of Thailand Resumes Rate Cuts as Economy Wilts
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Indonesia’s Central Bank Holds Rates as Rupiah Stability in Focus
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Bank of Japan on Cusp of Raising Rates to Highest in 30 Years
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After an 11-month wait, Japan’s central bank is about to get off the sidelines. Recent remarks from BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda have fueled market hopes that a hike is coming, with a December move now almost fully priced in.
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U.S. Unemployment Rose in November Despite Job Gains
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The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, its highest in more than four years, fueling questions about the American economy’s underlying strength.
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Retail-Sales Growth Stalls in October
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U.S. retail sales decelerated this fall, the Census Bureau said Tuesday, adding to evidence that the economy has cooled in recent months.
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Key Developments Around the World
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Inflationary Pressures Appear Contained, BOC's Macklem Says
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Inflationary pressures in Canada appear contained, Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said Tuesday, adding that policymakers remain focused on keeping inflation at or near 2% to preserve households’ purchasing power.
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U.K. Inflation Slows to Eight-Month Low
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Consumer prices in Britain cooled more than expected in November, keeping the Bank of England on course for the fourth interest-rate cut of the year this week, amid signs of weakness in the labor market and a slowing economy.
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German Business Sentiment Unexpectedly Retreats
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Confidence among German firms unexpectedly deteriorated this month, amid growing pessimism about the business outlook for early months of next year.
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Oil Prices Climb as Trump’s Venezuela Blockade Raises Supply Risks
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Oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Wednesday after President Trump ordered a total blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, raising risks of prolonged supply disruptions in the region.
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7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
10 a.m.: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
12:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce discussion
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7 a.m.: UK interest rate decision
8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: CPI
8:30 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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