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August 3, 2020 - Brief Issue 88

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Starting today, August 3, the Brief will move to a once-weekly issue for the first two weeks of August. During the last weeks of August, the Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on a hiatus until after Labor Day when it will return to its usual schedule.

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Check out our August 3 Coronavirus Weekly Brief podcast episode here.

Top Headlines

United States Closes July With New Monthly Coronavirus Case Peak, at 1.9 Million; California Passes 500,000 Total Coronavirus Cases; Contact Tracing May Be Failing Partially Due to a Lag in Coronavirus Testing (Health & Science)

New Study Finds Young Children May Have Higher Amounts of Virus Than Older Children and Adults; 76% of Tested Campers at a Georgia Sleepaway Camp Test Positive for Coronavirus (Health & Science)

New Preprint Manuscript Finds Aerosolized Coronavirus Particles Are What Spread the Virus on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in January (Health & Science)

New Animal Data on Four Vaccine Candidates in Human Trials, with Promising Results from Johnson & Johnson and Moderna; Pfizer and BioNTech Agree to Supply Japan with 120 Million Doses of their Vaccine Candidate (Health & Science)

Norway Reports 41 Infected on Arctic Cruise Ships (Around the World)

Melbourne Declares “State of Disaster” As Cases Spike (Around the World)

Philippines Sees Spike of 5,000 New Cases as Defiant President Taunts Doctors (Around the World)

Iran COVID-19 Deaths Triple of What Government Reported, Says BBC (Around the World)

U.S. Government in Continued Standoff Over Economic Stimulus Package After a Weekend of Negotiations as Expanded Unemployment Benefits Expire (U.S. Government & Politics)

Herman Cain Dies of COVID-19 After Attending Trump’s Controversial Tulsa Rally (U.S. Government & Politics)

Raúl Grijalva Tests Positive for Coronavirus After Attending Hearing with Louie Gohmert, Who Refused to Mask and Tested Positive, Criticizes Republican Representatives Who Refuse to Mask (U.S. Government & Politics)

Businesses Adapt to the “New Normal” and Gain Confidence About Future Sales and Operations (U.S. Economy)

D.C. Residents Struggle with Pandemic-Related Economic Catastrophe and Unemployment Benefits Delays; The Washington Post Profiles Three (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 4,667,957 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 154,860 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 1,468,689 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 56,812,162 tests. Worldwide, there have been 18,093,891 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 689,625 deaths. At least 10,700,077 people have recovered from the virus.

United States Closes July With New Monthly Coronavirus Case Peak, at 1.9 Million; California Passes 500,000 Total Coronavirus Cases; Contact Tracing May Be Failing Partially Due to a Lag in Coronavirus Testing

In July, the United States recorded over 1.9 million new coronavirus cases, which equates to about 42 percent of the over 4.5 million total known coronavirus cases across the country. That is also more than double the count of any other month’s count since the start of the pandemic, notes the New York Times. The Times reports that the last monthly high was in April, which included 880,000 new cases. For the past two weeks, the daily average of new cases has been around 65,000, and the average daily mortality count is 1,000 lives. Saturday counted the sixth day in a row that the United States recorded over 1,000 COVID-19-related deaths (WaPo). However, on Sunday, the United States’ death count dropped to 478 new recorded deaths, and 49,216 new coronavirus cases were counted, the lowest number of cases in almost four weeks (WaPo, WSJ). Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus task force member, appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, stating that the United States is in a “new phase” of the coronavirus pandemic because new case numbers are starting to spike in both rural and urban areas of the country.” She urged people to wear face masks and continue to learn and work remotely, saying, “I want to be very clear what we’re seeing today is different from March and April” adding, “It is extraordinarily widespread” (CNN, WaPo). Birx’s statements come as the United States’ rolling daily coronavirus case average is increasing in almost half of the country; she noted that “each state has a tailored set of recommendations based on what we’re seeing at the community level” (CNN). According to Anthony Fauci, also a member of the White House coronavirus task force, the United States’ patchwork approach to state closings is part of the reason the country’s coronavirus case counts are surging in many places. “When you actually look at what we did -- even though we shut down, even though it created a great deal of difficulty -- we really functionally shut down only about 50% in the sense of the totality of the country,” said Fauci on Friday during a congressional hearing (CNN, Washington Times, Business Insider). On Friday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its latest mortality count prediction for the United States, predicting the death toll will reach 173,270 by August 22 (CNN).

States throughout the Midwest are seeing new outbreaks, while others in the South, West, and Northeast are seeing a resurgence of new cases. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said the state is “at a danger point,” as the Public Health Department announces 1,467 new cases on Sunday and a total of 7,517 deaths (NYT, WGN). Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers issued a statewide mask order on Thursday. After seeing a drop in cases, the state’s economy reopened in June, which then led to a spike in new cases across the state (NYT). On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that a “hard” lockdown would help to curb the spread of the virus quickly, leading to a faster economic recovery and less federal borrowing (Bloomberg). California has officially passed 500,000 coronavirus cases, and the state continues to break its daily mortality counts as a result of the disease, at over 200 deaths over the past several days (LA Times). Across California, while Latinx residents account for 39 percent of California’s population, they are “three times more likely than white [residents] to test positive for coronavirus” (LA Times, Guardian). Cases in the Northeast are beginning to rise again, as residents become more comfortable gathering in groups after the region’s peak in April. Massachusetts saw 17 new COVID-19 deaths on Saturday, with the positive test rate rising above two percent on Friday after recording lower positive rate numbers throughout most of July (Boston Globe). Constable Alan Rosen from Texas’ Harris County called the pandemic’s recovery pattern a “roller coaster,” as infection rates change quickly throughout the country and people are unsure how to keep themselves and others healthy (NYT).

Contact tracing across the United States is failing because there are too many cases to keep up with, reports the New York Times. A lag in coronavirus tests has contributed to this downward spiral in efficiently tracking new cases and their spread, and further, “In some regions, large swaths of the population have refused to participate or cannot even be located, further hampering health care workers,” reports the Times. According to associate professor of family medicine and community health at the University of Pennsylvania Carolyn Cannuscio, “I think it’s easy to say contact tracing is broken. It is broken because so many parts of our prevention system are broken.” According to a press release by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in May, the federal government planned to distribute “$11 billion in new funding to support testing for COVID-19. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will provide $10.25 billion to states, territories, and local jurisdictions through CDC’s existing Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases (ELC) cooperative agreement. The Indian Health Service (IHS) will provide $750 million to IHS, tribal, and urban Indian Health programs to expand testing capacity and testing-related activities” (HHS). Last month, NPR conducted a survey of U.S. state health departments and found that “the national coronavirus contact tracing workforce has tripled in the past six weeks, from 11,142 workers to 37,110. Yet given their current case counts, only seven states and the District of Columbia are staffed to the level that public health researchers say is needed to contain outbreaks” (NPR). As we noted in previous briefs, former CDC Director Tom Frieden advocates that “‘an army' of 300,000 contact tracers” should be dispersed across the United States, similar to “Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps” (NYT).

The lack of effective contact tracing is compounded by the delay many states have in returning coronavirus test results. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis said, “We’re doing so many tests, sometimes it takes seven to ten days to get the results back” (White House, NYT, NYT). In Alabama, the average turnaround time for a coronavirus test is seven days. However, Assistant Secretary for Health Admiral Brett P. Giroir, MD believes the requested turnaround time of 48 to 72 hours is not feasible for coronavirus tests due to “the demand and the supply.” Despite this, the New York Times notes that Admiral Giroir said that “half of all test results were being processed within 24 hours” around the country, and “three-quarters of tests from commercial labs were coming back within five days.”

New Study Finds Young Children May Have Higher Amounts of Virus Than Older Children and Adults; 76% of Tested Campers at a Georgia Sleepaway Camp Test Positive for Coronavirus

Over the course of the past several months, we’ve noted several global studies on the transmission of the coronavirus in children, as well as the rate of infection. A new report was just published in JAMA Pediatrics by researchers at the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital and Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago, Illinois. The study found that “Infected children have at least as much of the coronavirus in their noses and throats as infected adults… Indeed, children younger than age 5 may host up to 100 times as much of the virus in the upper respiratory tract as adults, the authors found” (NYT). The researchers tested nasopharyngeal swabs from outpatient, inpatient, emergency, and coronavirus testing facilities in Chicago between March 23 through April 27 of coronavirus-positive individuals between the ages of less than one month through 65-years-old. In total, 145 people were part of the tested group, which was separated into three subgroups: children under 5-years-old (46 in total); children aged 5-years-old to 17-years-old (51 in total); and adults from 18-years-old to 65-years-old (48 in total). Older children and adults had the same median amount of “cycle thresholds” or CT of the virus, while younger children had a lower median CT value. According to the research findings, “The observed differences in median CT values between young children and adults approximate a 10-fold to 100-fold greater amount of SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract of young children” (JAMA). Overall, children under the age of 5-years-old who have either mild or moderate symptoms of the coronavirus “have high amounts of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in their nasopharynx compared with older children and adults.” This study was limited because it did not use a live virus, and instead used viral nucleic acid to determine infections. The researchers believe that “young children can potentially be important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the general populations… Behavioral habits of young children and close quarters in school and day care settings raise concern for SARS-CoV-2 amplification in this population as public health restrictions are eased.” Lead researcher of the study Taylor Heald-Sargent, who is a pediatric infectious diseases expert at the Ann and Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital, told the New York Times, “It definitely shows that kids do have levels of virus similar to and maybe even higher than adults” adding, “It wouldn’t be surprising if they were able to shed” the virus and transmit it to others around them.

This comes at a time where schools around the United States are determining whether or not to offer in-person learning at the start of the school year and schools push back their start dates by several weeks. A summer camp in Georgia spread the coronavirus among hundreds of children after the camp did not require masks for its campers (NYT). In June, a camp with 597 campers aged between 6-years-old and 19-years-old began to spread the coronavirus. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, test results were available for 58 percent of campers, or 344 individuals. Of those tests, 260, or 76 percent, returned positive coronavirus results. Out of 31 cabins across the camp, 28 had at least one infection. Part of the transmission rate may have been due to not requiring campers to wear masks, while staff were required to wear cloth masks at all times (CDC). According to Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers, “The study affirms that group settings can lead to large outbreaks, even when they are primarily attended by children” adding, “The fact that so many children at this camp were infected after just a few days together underscores the importance of mitigation measures in schools that do reopen for in person learning” (NYT).

We’ve highlighted several global studies on the rate of coronavirus transmission in children in previous briefs. A study from Germany showed that while children have milder coronavirus symptoms once infected, their levels of SARS-CoV-2 are the same as adults. Another study published in Science studied coronavirus cases in China and found that “children were about a third as susceptible to coronavirus infection as adults were. But when schools were open…children had about three times as many contacts as adults, and three times as many opportunities to become infected…” The study’s authors found that keeping schools closed may “reduce the surge by 40 to 60 percent” (NYT). A study published in Nature Medicine found that “children and teenagers are only half as likely to get infected with the coronavirus as adults age 20 and older, and they usually don’t develop clinical symptoms of COVID-19,” reports the Washington Post. The researchers evaluated data from Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. Other studies have found trends between the likelihood of illness in children versus older adults, indicating children could rapidly spread the coronavirus in a community environment, such as a school, but other studies have revealed divergent information. Findings from a recent study in the United Kingdom indicated: “It is not possible to say with confidence that there is any difference in the proportion of individuals in different age groups testing positive for COVID-19” (Office of National Statistics). Bonus Read: “A School Reopens, and the Coronavirus Creeps In,” (NYT).

New Preprint Manuscript Finds Aerosolized Coronavirus Particles Are What Spread the Virus on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in January

A preprint manuscript posted to medRxiv by researchers from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Illinois Institute of Technology found that on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, “aerosol transmission across both short- and long-range distances accounted for >70% of disease transmission overall, which is contrary to the prevailing positions on how COVID-19 is spread.” The researchers created a computer model of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in hopes of better understanding how the virus spreads so rapidly; according to the report, they modeled “21,600 scenarios to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors, including the magnitude of droplet and aerosol emissions from infected individuals, the infectious dose for deposition of droplets and aerosols to the upper and lower respiratory tracts, and others.” One-hundred thirty of those simulations mimicked, more or less, the virus’ transmission onboard the Diamond Princess. This is what determined the small aerosolized droplet contributed to infections. As we noted in a previous brief, the Diamond Princess outbreak took place in early January, and the transmission from one passenger infected over 700 passengers out of 3,711 onboard (NYT). The researchers also note that “these findings underscore the importance of implementing public health measures that target the control of inhalation of small aerosols in addition to ongoing measures targeting control of large droplet and fomite transmission” (medRxiv). The study comes after an open letter by 239 scientists from 32 countries, issued as an accepted manuscript to be published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, stated that the World Health Organization (WHO) should acknowledge “the role of airborne spread of Covid-19 and the need for governments to implement control measures” (Guardian). According to analysis of the report by the New York Times, “wearing good-quality masks — standard surgical masks, or cloth masks with multiple layers rather than just one — will most likely be needed as well, even in well-ventilated spaces where people are keeping their distance,” because the ventilation onboard the Diamond Princess was not enough to prevent the spread. Bonus Reads: “Yes, the Coronavirus is in the Air,” (WaPo); “We Need to Talk About Ventilation,” (Atlantic).

Full data on four vaccine candidates in rhesus macaque studies came out in the last week. Together, they provide a deeper background on vaccines that are currently in human trials: Moderna (Phase III), Oxford and AstraZeneca (Phase II and III globally), Johnson & Johnson (Phase III planned for September), and Inovio (entering Phase II & III). As we noted in Thursday’s brief, Moderna’s vaccine candidate helped macaques to clear the virus rapidly and mount strong immune responses, although the vaccine did not prevent infection, scientists reported Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NYT, Reuters). Encouragingly, a single dose of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine candidate actually prevented infection in five out of six rhesus macaques, and provided “near-complete protection” in the sixth, researchers reported Thursday in Nature (Bloomberg, Financial Times, NYT, Reuters). Also on Thursday, Nature published the final version of a study first posted as a preprint in May, showing that Oxford and AstraZeneca’s candidate did not prevent infection but did reduce the severity of the disease, potentially providing protection similar to flu vaccines, as we covered in previous briefs (BioCentury). Inovio’s vaccine candidate reduced viral load in the lungs and nose, researchers wrote in a preprint manuscript posted Wednesday (BioRxiv, Reuters).

Each study used very different protocols, so it’s impossible to do an apples-to-apples comparison of their results, but drug researcher Derek Lowe offers a thorough and detailed run down (In the Pipeline). Lowe notes that the animals in Moderna’s study received about ten times more virus than in Johnson & Johnson’s study: Johnson & Johnson’s efficacy data are “very good indeed, but one has to wonder if Moderna (whose viral challenge dose appears to have been tenfold higher) and the other competitors might have shown similar numbers at that same dose.” He also notes that Johnson & Johnson’s single dose seems larger than Oxford’s double dose: it appears to have “tenfold more viral particles than the other adenovirus vector in the table (Oxford), so is J&J prepared to manufacture five times more active viral vector?” asks Lowe. He notes that “Inovio’s challenge is the weakest of all those in the table, but at the same time their response is also the weakest,” adding, “I am not optimistic, based on these numbers, about how their candidate will perform in Phase II/III human studies.”

One intriguing finding from the Johnson & Johnson study is that across “all the vaccinated monkeys, levels of neutralizing antibodies were associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection, but levels of T cells were not,” writes Nature in a news summary. Similarly, Moderna’s study found that their candidate induced a strong antibody response and helped protect against the coronavirus but did not induce a strong CD8+ T-cell response. “Together, the findings argue neutralizing antibodies may be sufficient to confer protection, a major outstanding question in the field,” writes BioCentury. Like Lowe, BioCentury finds that Inovio’s vaccine data “appear weaker” than Moderna’s and Johnson & Johnson’s, but note that “the timing of the challenge suggests immunity against SARS-CoV-2 can last at least three months.”

Given the logistical challenges of delivering vaccines globally, it’s also worth comparing the delivery method. Inovio’s candidate is delivered in two doses intradermally—into the skin—using a proprietary device that is “small, portable, hand-held, user-friendly,” runs on AA batteries, and is “designed to function reliably in challenging environments and can be stockpiled in large quantities without maintenance” (Inovio). Johnson & Johnson’s single dose would halve the logistical complexities of delivering a two-dose course like the ones that Moderna, Oxford and AstraZeneca, Pfizer and BioNTech, and others are testing; Sinovac is considering a three-shot regimen, which would add one more layer of expense and logistical challenges in delivery.

Pfizer and BioNTech, who along with Moderna launched their 30,000-participant Phase III trials last week, have agreed to supply Japan with 120 million doses of their vaccine candidate in the first half of 2021 (BioCentury, Bloomberg, Reuters). This agreement comes one week after their contract to provide the United States 100 million doses for nearly $2 billion, as we noted in our July 23 brief (NYT, Pfizer, Reuters, WaPo WSJ).

With several ongoing Phase III trials and more on the way, several news outlets have provided overviews or trackers; the New York Times vaccine tracker remains one of the most comprehensive, with a user-friendly filtering function. Bonus Reads: “Data Bytes: How Warp Speed’s Deals Stack Up” (BioCentury); “Dozens of COVID-19 Vaccines are in Development. Here are the Ones to Follow” (National Geographic); “‘A Huge Experiment’: How the World Made So Much Progress on a Covid-19 Vaccine So Fast” (STAT); “Covid 19 Drugs and Vaccine Tracker” (STAT); “If Oxford’s Covid-19 Vaccine Succeeds, Layers of Private Investors Could Profit” (WSJ); “Drugmakers Race to Build Covid-19 Vaccine Supply Chains” (WSJ); “Vaccine Companies Searching for 1-Shot Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine” (ABC); and “Vaccine Distribution Will Be ‘Joint Venture’ Between CDC and Pentagon” (Politico).

Long-Term Studies Hope to Shed Light on How COVID-19 Interacts With the Brain and Other Organs

A study released in July by the University of College London found that of 43 patients studied between the ages of 16-years-old to 85-years-old, ten had “temporary brain dysfunction” and delirium, another twelve had inflammation, eight had strokes, and eight had nerve damage, reports CNN. An additional study was published last month in The Lancet Psychiatry, and found that of 153 individuals studied, 125 had complete clinical data. Fifty-seven of that 125 had a stroke, nine had an intracerebral hemorrhage, and one has vasculitis; 39 had “altered mental status” (Lancet). Brain damage and other long-term effects of COVID-19 are still unknown, but several studies are trying to understand how the disease can harm the body for a longer period of time. Researchers in the United Kingdom have initiated a study of 10,000 recovering COVID-19 patients for one year and will track them for up to 25 years (Science). The hope is to see the progression of symptoms post-COVID-19-recovery. According to Michael Marks, an infectious disease specialist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who is leading the study, “What we’re experiencing is an epidemic of severe illness” adding, “So therefore, there is an epidemic” of chronic illness that follows it." Another study in San Francisco, California plans to track 300 adults who recovered from COVID-19 for two years. As Science notes, “Cardiologists, neurologists, pulmonologists, and others are assessing the volunteers, and blood, saliva, and other biological specimens are being banked and analyzed.”

What has baffled some doctors and researchers is that the lung damage of many COVID-19 patients has been less significant than expected. For example, Keck School of Medicine radiologist at the University of Southern California Ali Gholamrezanezhad says, “We expected to see a lot of long-term damage from COVID-19: scarring, decreased lung function, decreased exercise capacity.” Gholamrezanezhad reviewed lung scans of COVID-19 patients in Asia from mid-January and found that only 20 percent of patients reviewed had lung damage that was “sustained” (Science). The reason this was so surprising is because a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) study from 2003 found that individuals had severe lung damage 15 years on (Nature). Another possible long-term effect is heart damage. As we noted in a brief from last week, two recent studies out of Germany studied how COVID-19 damages the heart. The first study, which was published in JAMA Cardiology, looked at MRIs from 100 people who recovered from COVID-19 and found that 78 of them had “abnormal [cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging] findings” and 60 patients had “ongoing myocardial inflammation.” According to the researchers, “Case reports of hospitalized patients suggest that COVID-19 prominently affects the cardiovascular system, but the overall impact remains unknown” (STAT). The second study, also published in JAMA Cardiology, looked at 39 autopsies of individuals who died from COVID-19 and found that “cardiac infection with SARS-CoV-2 was found to be frequent but not associated with myocarditis like influx of inflammatory cells into the myocardium.” Thirty-five individuals died from pneumonia, one of the more severe COVID-19 complications. According to analysis of the studies by STAT, “Taken together, the two studies…suggest that in many patients, Covid-19 could presage heart failure, a chronic, progressive condition in which the heart’s ability to pump blood throughout the body declines. It is too soon to say if the damage in patients recovering from Covid-19 is transient or permanent, but cardiologists are worried.” In an editorial printed in JAMA Cardiology, and focused on the two studies, editors Clyde W. Yancy and Gregg C. Fonarow write, “These new findings provide intriguing evidence that COVID-19 is associated with at least some component of myocardial injury, perhaps as the result of direct viral infection of the heart.”

Bonus Read: “Groups Protest Exclusion of HIV-Infected People from Coronavirus Vaccine Trials,” (Science).

Around the World

Europe

Norway Reports 41 Infected on Arctic Cruise Ships

Authorities in Norway are scrambling to locate passengers from two separate Arctic cruises after 41 people onboard were diagnosed with the coronavirus. The crew of the MS Roald Amudsen remain quarantined aboard the ship, which docked at Trumsoe in northern Norway on Friday. Four crew members have required hospitalization. The 178 passengers onboard, however, disembarked before doctors discovered the infections. Authorities are now searching for a total of 387 passengers who had sailed aboard the MS Roald Amudsen on two separate cruises since July 17. Five passengers have already been diagnosed. Authorities as of Monday were still in the process of trying to get word to the passengers. The Hurtigruten line, which owns the ship, in June was the first cruise company to resume voyages worldwide amidst chaos in the industry stemming from the outbreak (AP).

COVID-19 Deaths in Spain May Be Almost 50 Percent Higher Than Official Toll

The Spanish newspaper El Pais calculated 44,868 deaths in Spain from COVID-19, far higher than the official count of 28,432 listed by the Spanish Health Ministry. Using records from Spain’s 17 regions, the newspaper’s count is close to data presented by the publicly-funded Carlos III Institute of Health, which listed 44,418, the Ministry of Economy’s National Statistics Institute, which counted 44,395, as well as the Spanish Association of Funeral Professionals and Services, which listed 43,985. The discrepancy, according to El Pais, was due to the government only counting those who had tested positive for the virus. The other fatalities were accounted for by using excess death counting techniques. Many of these deaths occurred in nursing homes where patients were excluded from hospital admission at the height of the strain on medical services at the outbreak’s peak in March and April. If El Pais’ count is accurate, it puts Spain’s COVID-19 death toll second only to the United Kingdom in Europe (El Pais).

Asia-Pacific

Melbourne Declares “State of Disaster” As Cases Spike

Melbourne has intensified public health restrictions as the Australian state of Victoria, of which Melbourne is the capital, recorded 671 new coronavirus cases on Saturday. Australia’s second-largest city is now under a nightly curfew between 8pm and 5am, while outdoor exercise is limited to one hour per day within a five-kilometer radius of home with a maximum of two people per group. Visits to the supermarket are also restricted to a five-kilometer radius with only one person allowed per household everyday. All schools will resume distance learning on Wednesday, while weddings will be banned from Thursday (The Age). Victoria’s Sunday caseload was lower, however, at 429 (CNN). The situation remains relatively calmer outside Melbourne, with only 13 new cases reported on Sunday morning in New South Wales, home of Sydney, while Queensland reported no new infections (Australian Broadcasting Corporation).

Philippines Sees Spike of 5,000 New Cases as Defiant President Taunts Doctors

The Philippine Department of Health logged 5,032 cases on Sunday, a record daily increase, as President Rodrigo Duterte dared doctors to stage a “revolution” against him amid criticisms of his handling of the pandemic. “If you mount a revolution, you will give me a free ticket to stage a counter-revolution. How I wish you would do it,” said Duterte in a Sunday night address. His profanity-laden rant followed public suggestions from 80 medical associations to improve the government response to over-stretched emergency resources, including stricter quarantine restrictions in Manila. The healthcare system, they wrote to Duterte in an open letter, is “waging a losing battle.” Duterte did implement some of the suggestions on Sunday, including strict travel restrictions within the capital (The Rappler). Sunday was the fourth consecutive day the country logged record increases. Of the 5,032 new cases, 2,114 were from tests performed in the previous three days while the rest was from an older backlog. Manila remains the country’s hardest hit region with 2,737 new cases (The Rappler).

India’s Home Minister Diagnosed With Coronavirus

Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah on Sunday said that he is in the hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus. “My health is fine but I am getting admitted to a hospital on the advice of doctors,” Shah posted on Twitter in Hindi. He is being treated at Medanta hospital in Gurugram city near Delhi (Times of India). The minister on Sunday had participated at a cabinet meeting with other top officials, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, although it was reported on NDTV news that all safety precautions, such as physical distancing, were otherwise observed at the gathering. Shah nonetheless encouraged all who had encountered him to self-isolate pending test results. India recorded 54,000 new infections on Monday morning, bringing the country’s total caseload to more than 1.7 million. India currently has the third highest case count in the world, behind the U.S. and Brazil (NDTV).

Vietnam Sees First COVID-19 Deaths

Vietnam logged six COVID-19 deaths between Friday and Sunday, the first fatalities in a country that had managed to avoid any loss of life in the pandemic until a new outbreak hit central Vietnam in late July. Following a 99-day pause in detected community spread that began on April 17, the virus was rediscovered in the coastal city of Da Nang on July 25. A total of 182 new infections have been diagnosed since, bringing the total number of cases nationwide to 621 (VNExpress). In addition to Da Nang, which is the epicenter of the new outbreak, eight new cases have also been detected in Ho Chi Minh City along with two in Hanoi. Authorities in Da Nang, which has reintroduced social distancing after months of no infections, said on Saturday that they will test all 1.1. million people in the city in a bid to stop the virus’ new flare-up (Reuters).

The Americas

Mexico’s Death Toll is Now World’s Third Highest As President Refuses to Use Masks

Mexico’s COVID-19 death toll climbed to 46,688, supplanting the United Kingdom as the country with the third most fatalities from the pandemic. The federal government announced a single-day increase of 8,458 cases on Friday, a new record, and 688 fatalities, with Mexico now trailing only Brazil and the United States for the world’s highest death toll. Its fatality rate of 11 per 100 cases, however, remains lower than the U.K.’s 15.2. Health ministry officials announcing the news on Friday at the daily televised briefing all wore masks, a first time for the nightly ritual that began in March. President López Obrador, however, vowed on Friday to continue not wearing a mask until “there is no corruption anymore” despite threats from opposition lawmakers to seek a legal order compelling him. July was the deadliest month for Mexico thus far, accounting for 41 percent of all coronavirus deaths. Half of Mexico’s 32 states are designated as having a maximum risk for spread, while the rest, including Mexico City, are designated high risk (Mexico News Daily).

The Middle East

Iran COVID-19 Deaths Triple of What Government Reported, Says BBC

Iranian government records suggest that almost 42,000 people have died from COVID-19, almost three times higher than the 14,405 fatalities reported by the health ministry, according to a BBC Persian Service investigation. The new findings, which are based on data leaked to the BBC by an anonymous source, are in line with other excess mortality estimates for Iran. It showed 8,120 deaths in Tehran, the region with the most fatalities. The data also showed 1,419 deaths in Qom, the Iranian epicenter and proportionally the worst-hit city. Foreign nationals were also disproportionately represented, with 1,916 deaths, suggesting that migrants and refugees from Afghanistan are particularly hard hit. The first recorded Iranian death in the new data was also logged on January 22, one month before the government acknowledged the nation’s first infection. Prior to the report’s publication, official data from Iran was already suspect due to data irregularities between reports from national and regional levels. The health ministry was reportedly under pressure from Iranian security services to cover up the outbreak in its early days amid political problems at home and rising tensions with the U.S. over January’s killing of General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq (BBC). Iran’s Sunday infection count was the highest since July 8, with 2,685 new cases. Following a lull in April and May, Iran has been experiencing a spike in new coronavirus cases since the end of June (AFP).

Bonus Read: “With Covid-19, a Seismic Quiet Like No Other,” (NYT).

U.S. Government & Politics

U.S. Government in Continued Standoff Over Economic Stimulus Package After a Weekend of Negotiations as Expanded Unemployment Benefits Expire

An additional relief package has yet to be approved after a weekend of continued negotiations between Senate Republicans, House Democrats, and the White House. All parties are in disagreement over some portion of the package, with a particular focus on the federal unemployment benefits that expired on Friday, July 31. The GOP is pushing for limited unemployment payments, liability protections, and tax cuts, while Democrats are prioritizing an extension of jobless pay, rental assistance, mortgage relief, and election security. To further complicate the negotiations, the White House last week proposed a smaller bill focused solely on unemployment assistance and keeping people in their homes, and has not agreed to additional funds for state and local governments or liability protections. However, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that President Trump is willing to spend however much is needed on the next package (NYT).

The negotiations have been complicated by a central disagreement over the scope of the relief package, and whether to pass it in pieces or as a whole. Democrats support a larger bill that addresses the range of issues facing Americans during the pandemic, while some Republicans and the White House want to pass legislation focused specifically on unemployment and deal with other issues after the August recess. All parties have previously said that any agreement, if reached, will be backdated to August 1 to account for the lapse in federal support. Increasing cases nationwide and a rise in unemployment add pressure to the already tense negotiations. The Department of Labor announced that initial unemployment claims rose again for the week ending on July 25, with those already receiving unemployment topping 17 million people for the week ending July 18. More negotiations are scheduled for Monday, as many Americans wait anxiously to hear whether they will receive unemployment assistance, stimulus checks, and business protections from the federal government (WSJ, WaPo).

Herman Cain Dies of COVID-19 After Attending Trump’s Controversial Tulsa Rally

On Thursday, Herman Cain’s website announced that the man who was born in the segregated South, started his career with the Navy as a civilian employee, rose the corporate ladder to become the CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, and ran for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination died at the age of 74 (NYT, CNN). Cain later headed the National Restaurant Association, a “lobbying powerhouse,” the New York Times writes. According to the announcement, Cain had been hospitalized with COVID-19 after he tested positive for the coronavirus on June 29. It is not clear when or where he contracted the virus (AP). Cain, co-chair of Black Voices for Trump, had attended President Trump’s indoor Tulsa rally on June 20th, raising questions about whether he caught the virus at the rally, which was controversial in part due to concerns about its potential to spread the virus.

Raúl Grijalva Tests Positive for Coronavirus After Attending Hearing with Louie Gohmert, Who Refused to Mask and Tested Positive, Criticizes Republican Representatives Who Refuse to Mask

On Saturday, Raúl Grijalva, the Democratic Congressional representative for Arizona’s 3rd district announced that he had tested positive for the coronavirus (Axios, CNN, NBC). The statement also criticized Republican Congressional representatives who have refused to wear masks, reading, “While I cannot blame anyone directly for this, this week has shown that there are some Members of Congress who fail to take this crisis seriously. Numerous Republican members routinely strut around the Capitol without a mask to selfishly make a political statement at the expense of their colleagues, staff, and their families. I’m pleased that Speaker Pelosi has mandated the use of masks at the Capitol to keep members and staff safe from those looking to score quick political points.” Grijalva tested positive days after attending a hearing with Republican Representative Louie Gohmert, who tested positive for coronavirus, prompting Pelosi’s institution of a mask requirement for the House of Representatives as we covered in a previous brief.

GOP to Hold Nomination Vote in Private Without Media Convention Spokesperson Says on Saturday, RNC Official Says No Such Decision Made on Sunday

The GOP will hold its vote to nominate Donald Trump privately with no media present according to a spokesperson for the Republican National Convention (AP). The spokeswoman stated on Saturday, “Given the health restrictions and limitations in place within the state of North Carolina, we are planning for the Charlotte activities to be closed press Friday, August 21 – Monday, August 24.” The Associated Press notes, “Nominating conventions are traditionally meant to be media bonanzas, as political parties seek to leverage the attention the events draw to spread their message to as many voters as possible. If the GOP decision stands, it will be the first party nominating convention in modern history to be closed to reporters.” However, on Sunday, a Republican National Committee official speaking anonymously contradicted the statement saying that no such decision had been made.

U.S. Economy

Businesses Adapt to the “New Normal” and Gain Confidence About Future Sales and Operations

Business owners nationwide are beginning to gain confidence as they better understand consumer behaviors during and after the pandemic, with some companies seeing opportunities for expanded operations while others scale back. Companies expecting a more prolonged drop in business include Chevron and Shake Shack, who both saw a downturn in sales during the height of the pandemic. After global demand for oil fell by nearly one-third earlier this year, Chevron is preparing for lower gas prices for at least the next few months (FT). Shake Shack suffered from a drop in in-person customer sales, but recently pivoted to a more socially distant model with drive-through windows and online ordering. McDonald’s limited menu options aim to ease operations, while Equity Residential, with apartment complexes nationwide, adjusted their models to accommodate those working from home, with more office and outdoor space. S&P 500 companies are expected to see a 36 percent drop in earnings this quarter compared to last year, and a 9.6 percent drop in revenue during the same period. However, recent reopenings around the country have helped companies to better plan for a future that prioritizes social distancing, sanitation, and working from home. Kleenex parent company Kimberly-Clark predicts a 4 percent increase in sales growth, as consumers spend more on personal-care products. Andrew McCaughan, Shake Shack CEO, said the restaurant chain has shifted from “crisis mode” to everyday operations. While many companies appear ready for the “new normal,” most projections are contingent upon businesses remaining open, with no further lockdowns (WSJ).

Oil Industry’s Shift to Remote Work Expected to Last, Where Simplified Operations Mean Less Need for Employees

The oil industry is rapidly moving to a more remote drilling and fracking workforce, allowing companies to simplify production and drastically change the need for workers in the field. The industry was already seeing a trend of jobs replaced by new technologies, with U.S. employment in oil-related jobs down 26 percent in 2019 compared to 2013. The pandemic has since forced the major oil-field service companies to adopt widespread work-from-home models. The new work environments have increased the need for remote engineers and drastically cut the demand for on-site drilling specialists. Fewer employees are now needed, and those technologically trained in data-analytics are preferred to traditional operations and manufacturing skills. Although the coronavirus was a driving force for this shift, many expect the effects to be long-lasting, as companies enjoy the benefits of increased communication, faster decision-making, and lowered costs. Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, two of the largest oil-field service providers, have increased remote work this quarter by 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Remote operations often come alongside major workforce cuts, with Schlumberger, for example, announcing in late July that it would cut 21,000 jobs and close 150 operational sites (WSJ). Eric Carre, Executive Vice President at Halliburton, called the pandemic an “eye-opening experience,” where oil companies realized remote operations were not as hard as they previously thought (WSJ).

High Demand for Lumber Causes Shortages in Mills and Delayed Projects for Homeowners

Despite economic downturns and business closures, the demand for lumber continues to spike around the country, causing difficulties for suppliers looking to fill orders and for consumers looking to complete new projects. As we noted in a previous brief, wood is in high demand as work-from-home orders are extended indefinitely and home builders see an uptick in new construction contracts. As a result, wood prices have surged since the beginning of the year, with lumber futures doubling since early April. Some experts say lumber prices are now “irrelevant,” with desperate buyers willing to pay any price to secure their supply. Although grateful for the increased demand, many suppliers are struggling to keep up with orders, as the need for more workers and overtime shifts often go against social distancing recommendations. Additionally, competition to purchase wood has made it difficult for builders and suppliers to complete deliveries and meet project deadlines. Michael Hendershot, woodworker and founder of Greenwich Wood Products, said: “When the client asked us our lead time for completion, we joked that it would take three to 30 weeks” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

D.C. Residents Struggle with Pandemic-Related Economic Catastrophe and Unemployment Benefits Delays; The Washington Post Profiles Three

Residents of Washington, D.C. are struggling with the catastrophic impact of the pandemic-driven economic disruption that has put 50 million people out of work and resulted in a record contraction of the national economy while D.C. services struggle to keep up with the rise in demand (WaPo). In a Saturday report, the Washington Post profiled three people struggling with the economic crisis. One, Daniel Vought, a 30-year-old out of work because the coronavirus shut down the bar where he worked, found his unemployment benefits application stuck as D.C.’s employment office fielded 133,000 claims through July 29, almost five times as many as it fielded in all of 2019. The Post recounts a call Voight had with the employment office, in which it was not able to help, pointing to the backlog. The Post writes that after the aide said there wasn’t anything to be done and wished him a good weekend, “Vought stared into the living room, where stray sunlight from the drawn blinds fell on the crates he would have to store or haul or trash by Wednesday. His bank account was overdrawn. He had $10 in his wallet. A week from now, he could be homeless. ‘Oh,’ he mumbled. ‘I’m going to have a great weekend.’”

The Post also profiled Lakeisha Rollins, a 30-year-old who worked at Whole Foods while studying to be a nursing assistant. That is until she received a text that a co-worker had tested positive for the coronavirus. She decided that the risk was too high for her and her 10-year-old, and her baby due in August. The Post writes, “That meant a tough decision. She had about $500 in the bank and was eligible for pandemic assistance because she left her job over a health concern. Until those benefits kicked in, should she buy food or pay the rent?” Yet weeks passed by in what she termed “survivor mode” without her unemployment check arriving. Meanwhile her landlord, unable to legally summon or evict her for non-payment for the time being, made sure to send notice with each missed $1,297 payment noting that it was being tracked.

In another case profiled by the Post, Thomas Kennerly, a former D.C. police officer who left the force after being shot in the line of duty, was struggling to avoid foreclosure on his rowhouse of almost 20 years, eventually selling it before the pandemic, leading him to live with his brother in law while his wife went to live with her mother as they saved for a new place. However, due to the coronavirus, Kennerly lost his job at the Amazon Hub Locker on Alabama Avenue SE. For weeks, his benefits did not come. He told the Post, “It’s impossible to get an apartment without funds,” adding, “You don’t want to be depending on other people. It’s hard. You’d rather have your own.”

These three D.C. residents, whose stories the report describes more fully, suffered from the impact on the economy but also because as the Post writes, “social services infrastructure designed to deliver that help in the District stalled at the very moment its services were most critical.” Bonus Read: “Some Americans Wait, Without Pay, for Covid-19 Test Results,” (WSJ).

Reopened Baseball Season Draws Strong Ratings

Major League Baseball’s season, which was delayed 100 days due to the coronavirus pandemic, drew strong TV ratings with its reopening over the July 23-26 weekend, and drew twice as many viewers as the season’s opening did last year, according to MLB Network data (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN said the first 12 games it aired through late Thursday averaged 1.16 million viewers, up 34% from last year. Fox Corp.’s Fox Sports also saw a double-digit rise in ratings.” Michael Mulvihill, the head of strategy and analytics at Fox Sports, commented, “Whatever challenges were presented by the absence of fans was very much outweighed by the optimism.” The enthusiasm may be partly due to the lack of competing sports on TV with most other major sports still in lockdown as baseball opened.

Bonus Read: “Reopening Schools is a Lose-Lose Dilemma for Many Families of Color,” (Axios).

Analysis & Arguments

Akiko Iwasaki and Ruslan Medzhitov explain the science behind COVID-19 immunity (NYT).

Zeynep Tufekci explores airborne transmission, the science behind aerosols, and the need to prioritize better ventilation (Atlantic).

The New York Times calls for voting by mail calling it “crucial for democracy” (NYT).

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo presents New York’s response to the pandemic as a success with lessons for other states and the federal government (NYT).

Liliana Segura covers the rush to carry out executions despite the pandemic (Intercept).

Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk and David Sterman and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Narisara Murray, with Brianna Kablack and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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