The U.S. government shutdown will be in focus this week, with official U.S. data being potentially delayed. The shutdown dragged toward its second week, with signs pointing to another week of posturing and repeat Senate votes that fail to get the 60 votes needed to reopen the government.

Additionally, Japan is set to have its first female prime minister, as Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

France’s Sébastien Lecornu resigned as prime minister on Monday after less than a month in office, the shortest tenure in the history of France’s modern Fifth Republic. His resignation marks the fourth prime minister to leave in just over a year.

President Trump’s advisers are counseling him to refine his economic message with a pitch to voters aimed at easing their anxiety about weak jobs growth and stubborn inflation.

Their new mantra: Just wait until next year.

In private conversations with the president, Trump’s advisers, rather than dwell on shaky economic data, have painted a rosy outlook, insisting that data will begin to improve in the first quarter of 2026, according to people familiar with the matter, including senior administration officials. 

After a report showing only 22,000 new jobs in August, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump he believes the employment numbers will start to tick up once policies from his “Big Beautiful” tax-and-spending law are fully implemented heading into next year, according to a person close to Bessent.

The federal government shutdown dragged toward its second week in a partisan staring contest, lacking for now the political or practical consequences that would create enough pressure to break the impasse.

All signs point to another week of posturing and repeat Senate votes that fail to get the 60 votes needed to reopen the government. Congressional leaders in both parties insist that they have the upper hand and that the other side bears the blame for the shutdown.

“Right now, we’re at a stalemate,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” urging Democrats to buck their party’s leaders. “They’ll get another chance on Monday to vote again, and I’m hoping that some of them have a change of heart.”

Even if the two sides make progress on negotiating a deal, President Trump’s approval is necessary to end the shutdown, and he has preferred mocking Democrats on social media to engaging with them in the standoff’s first five days.

Japan is set to have its first female prime minister, a staunch conservative who wants to borrow and spend more to rev up Japan’s economy and says she’s willing to reopen a hard-won trade deal with the U.S.

Sanae Takaichi, 64 years old, was elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday, in a party poll that followed the September resignation of her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba. Though the LDP lacks a clear majority in Parliament, she is expected to win enough support from lawmakers to succeed Ishiba as prime minister later this month.

Among Takaichi’s most pressing tasks: fortifying an alliance with the U.S. that has been strained by President Trump’s all-out push to reorder global trade. Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S. over the next few years in exchange for a tariff of 15% on U.S. imports of its cars, machinery, and other products. That’s a better rate than the 27.5% Japan was facing on cars before the agreement was made, but much worse than the low tariffs most of its exports enjoyed before Trump’s return to office.

France’s Sébastien Lecornu resigned as prime minister on Monday after less than a month in office, underscoring President Emmanuel Macron’s struggle to forge a stable government as the country’s fiscal woes deepen.

Lecornu’s tenure is the shortest in the history of France’s modern Fifth Republic, and his resignation marks the fourth prime minister to leave in just over a year.

The failure of yet another Macron government is a sign of the dwindling options the president faces as he tries to rein in France’s ballooning budget deficit while corralling a fractious National Assembly.

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index for services providers fell to the 50.0 no-change mark in September that divides expansion from contraction. That was a decline from the 52.0 recorded in August, and lower than consensus expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal that it would remain at the same level of expansion.

Former employees have spoken to investigators from the SEC’s Chicago office in recent weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The investigators asked about a whistleblower’s allegations that the startup stock exchange had misappropriated investor funds, the people said. They also asked about other connections with Scientology-affiliated organizations, the people said.

9 a.m.: IMF Global Financial Stability Report analytical chapter
9 a.m.: IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapter
10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index

8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9 a.m.: IMF Global Financial Stability Report analytical chapter
10 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce and Fisk University event
10:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks at Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook
4:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks at Deutsche Bank Fall Macro Conference

For Europe’s central bankers, President Trump’s tariff blitz has been a bit of a nonevent, WSJ's Paul Hannon writes.

Since the tariffs were introduced in early April, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate twice and to the point where policymakers judge it is no longer restraining economic activity, but gone no further.

The Bank of England is on a path to that neutral destination, but maintaining the same steady pace it adopted well before the tariffs were announced. Even Switzerland, which faces some of the highest tariffs to be levied by the president, has declined to hit the panic button.

A change of guard in Japan’s ruling party could complicate matters for the central bank as it looks to keep raising interest rates, WSJ's Megumi Fujikawa writes.

Sanae Takaichi, the new head of the Liberal Democratic Party, is viewed as being in favor of expansionist economic policies and once called the Bank of Japan’s rate increases “stupid.”

Now she is on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister. If she pushes for loose monetary policy and stacks her cabinet with doves, that could make tightening trickier for the BOJ.

The next Bank of England decision is on a knife edge, with Governor Andrew Bailey likely to have the deciding vote, Barclays economist Jack Meaning says in a note. Rate-setters have revealed a balanced but divided committee. For example, last week Sarah Breeden said the recent "hump" in inflation was unlikely to lead to additional inflationary pressure, while Catherine Mann said she prefers "a longer hold." Given the stark split, that suggests the decision may hinge on Bailey, who next speaks later on Monday, Meaning says. "We will be looking for any signal that he [Bailey] is open to a November rate cut by referencing the downside risks to the labour market or a gradual easing cycle," he says. — Edward Frankl

Singapore's central bank is likely to maintain its monetary-policy settings in October, HSBC economists say in a note. The country's high-frequency indicators continue to point to resilient growth despite some volatility in trade data and the recently announced U.S. pharmaceutical tariff, they note. The economists expect the economy to grow 2.8% in 2025, a forecast they say would encourage the MAS to stand pat in October. While the MAS could ease at some point given subdued inflation dynamics, the risk may be higher next year, they add. MAS's next statement is expected to be released by Oct. 14. The central bank uses the exchange rate as a policy tool to maintain price stability, given Singapore's small and open economy. — Megan Cheah

A prolonged U.S. government shutdown could cause a modest slowdown in economic growth, Fitch Ratings says in a note. "A protracted disruption, particularly if accompanied by significant funding withdrawals or workforce reductions, could slightly slow U.S. economic growth." In the near term, however, the shutdown is expected to have limited impact on the economy, Fitch Ratings says. — Miriam Mukuru

• Retailers in the eurozone saw sales edge higher in August, adding to signs of a modestly resilient economy despite U.S. tariffs and political uncertainty. Retail volumes increased 0.1% across the 20-nation currency area in August from a month earlier, compared with a 0.4% drop in July, statistics agency Eurostat said Monday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had also expected a 0.1% increase. Domestic consumer demand has been expected to prop up the eurozone economy as it takes the hit from U.S. tariffs on its exports. Retail sales were up 1.0% compared with August 2024.
• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a restrained oil output increase on par with earlier moves, a bet that the group can eke out more revenue without causing a crash in prices.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington early this week to advance talks on tariff relief on key sectors such as steel and cars. He departs Monday evening with meetings scheduled for Tuesday, including with President Trump.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.