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November 19, 2020 - Brief Issue 122

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Reports Highest Death Toll Since May; Passes 250,000 Total Deaths (Health & Science)

Pfizer Final Results Show Vaccine is Safe and 95% Effective; Emergency Use Authorization Request Expected Friday (Health & Science)

States Still Unprepared to Distribute Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

Over 3 Million People in the U.S. Estimated to Have Active Covid-19 Cases (Health & Science)

Canada-U.S. Border Closure Extended Again (Around the World)

African Continent Tops 2 Million Infections as Some Countries Abandon Masks (Around the World)

U.K. Plans to Undertake Mass Vaccination Program (Around the World)

South Korea Begins Anti-Coronavirus Period Before College Entrance Exam (Around the World)

Japan Sees Record Number of Daily Infections; Most Japanese Companies Will Cancel Holiday Parties (Around the World)

12 Million Americans Could Lose Unemployment Aid After Christmas, If Congress Doesn’t Act (U.S. Government & Politics)

Some GOP Governors Move Towards Mask Mandates (U.S. Government & Politics)

Target Sales Grow, Outpace Rivals (U.S. Economy)

New York Hotels Ordered to Pay Workers Displaced by Pandemic $500 Million (U.S. Society)

Rural Areas Struggle with Remote Learning (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 11,529,807 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 250,537 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 4,350,789 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 171,908,902 tests. Worldwide, there have been 56,300,193 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,350,326 deaths. At least 36,204,567 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Reports Highest Death Toll Since May; Passes 250,000 Total Deaths 

At least 1,707 new Covid-19 deaths were reported on Tuesday, the highest daily death toll since May. The death rate has increased 42% over the last four weeks, and on Wednesday morning, the U.S. logged its 250,000th Covid-19 death (CNN, NBC, Johns Hopkins). Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor at Georgetown University, said the numbers will continue to climb. 

“The horrible death count that we saw yesterday in the United States ... reflects the number of people who were being infected three weeks ago," Reiner said Wednesday. "On average, two to three weeks ago, we were seeing 70,000 to 80,000 (new) cases per day. Yesterday, there were about 155,000 (new) cases.” 

Dr. Reiner warned that we could soon start seeing 3,000 deaths per day, higher than at any other point during the pandemic. Health and government officials around the country are urging people to stay at home and not have guests at their homes for Thanksgiving dinner in order to turn the numbers around.

Pfizer Final Results Show Vaccine is Safe and 95% Effective; Emergency Use Authorization Request Expected Friday

Pfizer announced on Wednesday that their end data shows their coronavirus vaccine is 95% effective (NYT, CNN). This efficacy data is even more promising than data from their interim analysis, which showed just over 90% efficacy. The company recorded 170 Covid-19 cases among trial participants. Of these, 162 had received the placebo, and just eight had received the vaccine. Ten severe cases were recorded, with just one occurring in the vaccine group. Significantly, the vaccine also proved 94% effective in adults over 65, who are at greater risk for developing severe Covid-19 symptoms and for whom vaccines are often not as effective. The only severe side effect occurring in at least 2% of participants in the vaccine group was fatigue, which was reported by 3.7% of participants.

As we reported yesterday, this endpoint means that Pfizer and its partner company BioNTech will seek U.S. Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization for the vaccine within days. BioNTech CEO Dr. Ugur Sahin said Wednesday that the companies planned to file their request on Friday. The companies will also release their data to regulatory agencies around the world and publish their findings in a peer-reviewed journal. Bonus Read: “What You Need to Know About the Moderna and Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccines,” (WaPo).

States Still Unprepared to Distribute Covid-19 Vaccine

With Pfizer set to request emergency authorization for its vaccine at the end of the week and Moderna expecting to do the same later this month, the next big hurdle will be one of logistics: distributing tens of millions of vaccines to states, figuring out which groups will be vaccinated first and recruiting and training medical personnel. But after months of silence from the federal government, many states say they are still unprepared to meet these challenges (Politico).

States have requested more than $8 billion in federal funds in order to meet their goals, but thus far, nowhere near that amount has been secured. The federal government, which is in charge of distributing vaccines to states, has not told states how many vaccines to expect, making it difficult for health officials to decide who should receive the first round of shots. Pfizer and Moderna have stated that they each expect to be able to send out 20 million doses in December, but many health officials have expressed concern about their ability to effectively distribute the vaccines.

“The federal government has invested an incredible amount of money and attention in developing these vaccines and that’s gotten us very far very quickly,” said Lori Freeman, the CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “We don’t have the investment in getting the vaccine from the lab to the people ... We’re running out of time for pulling those things together.” Bonus Read: “A Vial, a Vaccine and Hopes for Slowing a Pandemic – How a Shot Comes to Be," (WaPo).

Over 3 Million People in the U.S. Estimated to Have Active Covid-19 Cases

According to a new estimate from Columbia University, more than 3 million people in the United States, or about 1% of the population, have an active, contagious case of Covid-19 (WaPo). This estimate is lower than the official case count, which represents only those who have tested positive for the virus. The model shows a 34% week-to-week increase in cases, and experts say the current wave of cases has likely not peaked. Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, who led the project, said the situation was “really, really bad” and likely to get worse with Thanksgiving around the corner. 

Coronavirus Cell Phone Apps Can Help People Learn if They’ve Been Exposed

A cell phone alert may be the first indication for some people that they’ve been exposed to coronavirus. Fifteen states and territories, plus the District of Columbia, now support Covid-19 exposure apps, which alert users if they’ve been in close contact with someone who tests positive for the virus (WaPo). If someone with the app tests positive, they can contact their local health department, which will give them a code to enter into the app. The app will then send a signal to other phones to check whether their users recently had close contact, usually defined as within six feet for at least 15 minutes. If close contact is determined, the user receives a notification that they may have been exposed, letting them know they should get tested and isolate if necessary.

The apps do not track user locations but instead use Bluetooth technology to ping nearby phones. All data is anonymized, and anyone receiving an alert does not know who they were exposed to or where the exposure happened. So far, data on the effectiveness of app use is scarce in the United States, but other countries such as Ireland and Switzerland have reported successes with similar programs. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is supporting additional research into the impact of the technology.

Study Demonstrates High Risk Posed by Social Events, Including Holiday Gatherings

A study published last week in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report followed a Covid-19 outbreak originating from a 55-person wedding reception that took place over the summer in rural Maine (LA Times). Using contact tracing, researchers identified a total of 177 Covid-19 cases, seven hospitalizations, and seven deaths that occurred as a result of the super-spreader event.

Health officials say Thanksgiving dinners and Christmas reunions could have similar consequences. The Covid-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool produced by the Georgia Institute of Technology uses public data sets to show daily county-level estimates of the odds that at least one person in a 10-person gathering will have coronavirus. Currently, the nationwide risk that a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner will have at least one infected person is about 40% (WaPo). Experts caution against such gatherings, particularly unmasked, indoor events, saying that the potential for viral spread is high and could have severe consequences for individuals and overburdened medical systems.

New York City Schools to Close Thursday; Boston Mayor Asks University Students to Stay Home After Thanksgiving Break

New York City’s public schools will close for in-person learning on Thursday following an uptick in cases around the city (NYT). The closure came after the city reached a 3 percent positivity rate for Covid-19 tests. In-person learning was at the center of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s reopening plan, and New York was the first big city in the country to reopen schools after shutdowns in the spring.

Boston Mayor Marty Walsh asked students at the city’s roughly 30 colleges and universities to plan to finish out their semester from home if they travel back for Thanksgiving festivities (NYT). At Boston University, students who leave campus for Thanksgiving must isolate for seven days after their return and have three negative Covid tests before returning to class. Many other universities around the country planned at the semester’s start for their students to transition to all-remote learning after Thanksgiving, anticipating potential outbreaks after the holiday.

Around the World

Americas

Canada-U.S. Border Closure Extended Again

CBC News said in a Tweet that the border closure between Canada and the United States was going to be extended again, this time until Dec. 21. The current agreement on the U.S.-Canada border closure to non-essential travel was first imposed in March to limit the spread of the virus. The restrictions have been renewed every month since. The current extension is set to expire on Nov. 21, but sources have told multiple news outlets, like CBC and CTV News, that the measures are set to be renewed through to Dec. 21. 

Africa

African Continent Tops 2 Million Infections as Some Countries Abandon Masks

Africa has reported more than 2 million coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which warned this week that “some countries have just literally abandoned masks.” So far, the continent has fared better than other regions: its 2 million cases are less than the total number reported in France, which has only a twentieth of its population (WaPo). Africa’s death toll has not yet reached 49,000, which is also substantially lower than other regions. Yet experts aren’t sure whether the apparent success is due to doctors’ expertise in dealing with infectious diseases or if it just reflects a lack of widespread testing. But like many other parts of the world, pandemic fatigue is affecting preventative measures, says Africa CDC: “We have begin to see what I call prevention fatigue,” the organization’s director, John Nkengasong, told reporters, according to the Associated Press. Health experts still worry that the worst is yet to come for the continent as cases continue to climb in most places; for example, cases in Kenya have risen by 34% in the past month. “We don’t know how high the second peak will come,” Nkengasong said Monday.

Europe

U.K. Plans to Undertake Mass Vaccination Program

The National Health Service (NHS) in the U.K. is planning to undertake a mass vaccination campaign, according to documents seen by the Guardian. The NHS is gathering an army of retired doctors, health visitors, and physiotherapists to carry out the country’s biggest ever vaccination program. According to the Guardian: “The extraordinary effort in England will also include district nurses and high street chemists alongside GPs in the drive to immunise 22 million vulnerable adults, followed by the rest of the population.” A series of powerpoint slides shared with GP leaders by NHS England last week also detailed a plan for training inexperienced staff members to administer vaccines through an e-learning session. “The training is being developed by Public Health England, is expected to take around two hours to complete (per vaccine) and will be available on the E-Learning for Health Platform,” it added. 

Russia Exceeds 2 Million Cases

On Thursday Russia announced that the country’s total number of coronavirus cases surpassed 2 million, adding 23,610 infections and 463 deaths to the tally (Guardian). Russia ranks fifth in the number of infections reported, behind the United States, India, Brazil, and France. The official death toll is at 34,850. 

Asia

South Korea Begins Anti-Coronavirus Period Before College Entrance Exam

South Korea started a special two-week coronavirus prevention period on Thursday after the number of daily infections continued to climb ahead of the extremely competitive annual college entrance exams (Reuters). Almost 500,000 high school seniors will sit for the college exam on Dec. 3, according to the education ministry, but rising case numbers have caused alarm among students and parents. The college entrance exam plays a decisive role in education and career prospects. All high schools will shift to online classes a week before the exam and the health ministry said it will disclose the names of any cram schools or study cafes that experience infections during the period. Currently, there are no reported cases among high school seniors in the capital Seoul and 153 of the total 230 high schools are already holding classes online. The daily tally of infections surpassed 300 on Wednesday for the first time since August. 

Japan Sees Record Number of Daily Infections; Most Japanese Companies Will Cancel Holiday Parties

Japan recorded a record number of coronavirus infections on Thursday, with 2,179 new cases in the previous 24 hours (Guardian). It’s the first time Japan has seen more than 2,000 new cases since the pandemic began. Tokyo has moved to its highest level of alert and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga urged maximum caution but stopped short of calling for new restrictions. 

Nearly 90% of Japanese companies are planning to skip year-end holiday parties in order to prevent the spread of Covid-19, according to a private survey (Reuters). Year-end and New Year dinners have been a tradition in Japanese corporate culture and make December and January a peak season for restaurants. But this year, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the government was looking to tighten guidelines on dining out, that, along with the cancellation of corporate festivities, will be a big hit to the hospitality services industry that is already suffering from effects of the pandemic.

U.S. Government & Politics

12 Million Americans Could Lose Unemployment Aid After Christmas, If Congress Doesn’t Act

About 12 million Americans will lose their unemployment insurance after Christmas if Congress doesn’t act to adjust deadlines set in the Cares Act, according to a report released Wednesday (WaPo). The report was authored by unemployment researchers Andrew Stettner and Elizabeth Pancotti. The Washington Post reports, “The ‘benefits cliff; on Dec. 26 includes an additional 7.3 million workers on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the supplemental insurance for gig and self-employed workers, which ends that day, as well as 4.6 million people on Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, the unemployment insurance extension available for people who have exhausted regular benefits after what is typically about six months, depending on the state.” Stettner told the Post, “We’re just careening into this huge cliff and it’s like it’s not even happening. People are just totally, completely ignoring the situation at a time when things are getting worse before they’re going to get better in terms of public health. And that just really is going to constrain people’s ability to get a job when benefits run out.”

Some GOP Governors Move Towards Mask Mandates

As the pandemic continues to surge, some Republican Governors are abandoning their opposition to mask usage and even mandated mask wearing (WaPo, NYT). The Washington Post reports, “A growing number of Republican governors, including some who had written off mask mandates as unenforceable or unacceptable to freedom-loving Americans, are now requiring people to cover their faces in public — a response to escalating coronavirus outbreaks overwhelming hospitals across the country.” Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds had previously called mask mandates “feel good” measures, but this week issued a limited mandate. On Tuesday, Ohio’s Republican Governor Mike DeWine has increased enforcement after previously backtracking from a mask mandate. The Post notes, “Associates of some Republican governors who recently instituted mask mandates said the expectation of a more active federal response under Biden is providing cover for state leaders who have feared blowback from lawmakers in their own party, as well as from Trump’s base. Some on the front lines are now pointing to Trump’s electoral defeat as an opportunity for governors in his party to assert a modicum of independence.”

White House Press Secretary: State Thanksgiving Restrictions “Orwellian”

On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany called the range of restrictions that states are imposing to curtail further spread of the pandemic over Thanksgiving “Orwellian” (Politico). She made the remarks in an interview on “Fox & Friends.” McEnany stated, “I think a lot of the guidelines you’re seeing are Orwellian.” She added that while some measures are important for health,  it’s Orwellian in a place like Oregon to say, ‘If you gather in numbers more than six, we might come to your house and arrest you, and you get 30 days of jail time.’ That’s not the American way. We don’t lose our freedom in this country. We make responsible health decisions as individuals.” Politico notes, “Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announced last Friday that the state would enter a two-week ‘freeze,’ suspending in-person dining, shuttering certain businesses such as gyms, and limiting social gatherings to six people. Violations of the order could result in a citation, fine or arrest.”

U.S. Economy

Bonus Reads: “Boeing 737 MAX Cleared to Fly Again, but Covid-19 Has Sapped Demand,” (WSJ); “Boeing 737 Max Is Cleared by F.A.A. to Fly Again,” (NYT). 

Target Sales Grow, Outpace Rivals

Target’s sales grew over the quarter ending August 1 outpacing its rival retailers, as companies work to adapt to the pandemic (WSJ). Target reported that its sales rose 24.3%. The Wall Street Journal notes, “Comparable sales, those from stores or digital channels operating for at least 12 months, increased 20.7% in the quarter ended Oct. 31, as more shoppers came to stores and spent more during each visit and as online sales soared. Digital comparable sales grew more than twofold during the quarter, the company said.” Target CEO Brian Cornell told the Journal that while there are reports of declining sales due to surging coronavirus cases, an issue we covered in yesterday’s brief, “We haven’t seen that dissipation,” and Target reports its sales growth remained at about 20% over September and October. The Journal notes, “Big-box stores such as Target, Walmart Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. have generally fared well during the pandemic, enticing shoppers with a one-stop place to shop, especially for in-demand product categories such as food and home-improvement supplies. In contrast, many department stores and apparel retailers—already weakened by the shift to online shopping in recent years—have struggled after having to close early in the pandemic.”

Bonus Read: “In the Covid Economy, Laid-Off Employees Become New Entrepreneurs,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

New York Hotels Ordered to Pay Workers Displaced by Pandemic $500 Million

A recent arbitrator’s ruling ordered New York hotel owners to pay workers displaced by the pandemic $500 million, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday (WSJ). The Journal notes, “The ruling represents the largest hotel-employee payout ever awarded in New York City, hotel owners and union representatives said. While the final amount of severance pay depends on a few factors, it is likely to be the biggest on record for any hotel-union group in the country, these people said.” The order has sparked tension between hotel owners and unions representing workers amid a particularly tough time for the hotel industry.

Rural Areas Struggle with Remote Learning

As schools shift to remote learning or hybrid learning models, with some in-person classes alongside in-person ones, the lack of access to a reliable internet connection, especially in rural areas, is making a difficult situation even worse (NYT). Teachers are trying to deal with this technology gap by uploading lessons to flash drives and sending them to dozens of students every other week. Sometimes, students take up the burden to find a solution to the lack of access and spend school nights at relatives’ houses so they can get online or spend hours a day in parking lots connected to retailers’ wifi just so they can participate in lessons. About 15 million K-12 students lived in households without adequate online connectivity in 2018, according to a study of federal data by Common Sense Media, an education nonprofit group. While it has been an issue for a while, the pandemic has turned the lack of connectivity into an emergency. Congress passed a coronavirus relief package in March and while it provided billions of dollars for emergency education needs, none of those funds were specifically for closing the digital divide. “The tragedy is this is not a Democratic or Republican problem,” said Mr. Steyer, head of Common Sense Media. “It is simply not fair that a poor family in a rural area or a low-income urban area does not have the resources to send their kids to school in this pandemic.”

Bonus Read: “Dolly Parton Helped Fund Moderna’s Vaccine. It Began With a Car Crash and an Unlikely Friendship,” (WaPo). 

Analysis & Arguments

Alexis C. Madrigal examines the staffing shortages facing hospitals (Atlantic).

Stephanie Nolen writes on Nova Scotia as a coronavirus success story (NYT).

Richard Ravitch, former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, argues that the federal government needs to step in to support states and cities struggling to deal with the pandemic’s impact (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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