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July 9, 2020 - Brief Issue 75

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

United States Reaches 3 Million Coronavirus Cases and Sets Record of 60,000 New Daily Cases; Arizona Has Highest Per Capita Rate of Coronavirus Cases in the U.S. (Health & Science)

New Study Finds Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Spread of the Virus May Account for Nearly Half of Coronavirus Cases (Health & Science)

New Global Analysis Outlines How Other Countries Have Reopened Their Schools as U.S. Wrestles With Next Steps (Health & Science)

President Trump Tweets for FDA to “Act Now” on a New Hydroxychloroquine Study that Scientists Say is Flawed (Health & Science)

Reopened Churches and Their Youth Programs Are Spreading Coronavirus Cases Across the U.S. (Health & Science)

Analysis of Health Records of 17 Million People in England Confirms Risk Factors for COVID-19 Deaths (Health & Science)

Bolsonaro Rejects Aid to Indigenous People, Uses Homophobic Slur to Mock to Masks (Around the World)

Serbian Leader Backtracks on Reimposing COVID-19 Curfew Due to Protests (Around the World)

Japan Faces Uptick in Cases, But the Government is Putting the Economy First (Around the World)

India’s Transmission Rate is Increasing (Around the World)

South Africa May Run out of ICU Beds in Four Weeks (Around the World)

Harvard, MIT Sue Administration Over New Rules Blocking International Students from Staying in U.S. for Online Courses (U.S. Government & Politics)

Despite CDC Recommendations, Trump Threatens to Cut Funding to Schools Remaining Online (U.S. Government & Politics)

Despite Federal Aid, United Airlines Expected to Furlough 36,000 Employees (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Weakening the Dollar, Triggering “Death’s Cross” (U.S. Economy)

NYC Schools Plan Return to Some In-Person Classes this Fall (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have now been 3,055,144 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 132,309 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 953,420 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 37,431,666 tests. Worldwide, there have been 12,051,561 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 549,735 deaths. At least 6,598,230 people have recovered from the virus.

United States Reaches 3 Million Coronavirus Cases and Sets Record of 60,000 New Daily Cases; Arizona Has Highest Per Capita Rate of Coronavirus Cases in the U.S.

On Wednesday, the United States reached the 3 million coronavirus cases mark, adding 1 million cases in just 28 days (CNN). The United States reached its first 1 million cases 99 days after the first reported case was identified on January 21. Forty-three days later, the United States reached 2 million, and less than one month later, the U.S. has passed 3 million. The United States now accounts for nearly 25 percent of global coronavirus cases, but less than 5 percent of the global population (NPR).

In Tuesday’s brief, we noted that 31 states were trending upwards in new cases, and by Wednesday, 35 states now have increasing cases (CNN). As we noted in yesterday’s brief, Anthony Fauci, White House coronavirus task force member and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said of the decline in COVID-19 deaths across the country, that “it’s a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death.” Further, as Massachusetts General Hospital chief of infectious diseases Rochelle Walensky says “two, three, four, five weeks after” initial transmission is when COVID-19 deaths can take place, so there is a lag of several weeks to truly understand the rate of infection and mortality rate.

On Tuesday, the U.S. hit a new record for daily cases at 60,021. As we noted in Tuesday’s brief, 35 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico have all implemented some form of mask wearing protocol (CNN). According to a report by NPR, “Nine U.S. states — New York, California, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, Arizona and Georgia — are now reporting more than 100,000 cases. Worldwide, only 20 countries other than the U.S. have hit that number.” Fauci said of mask wearing and other preventive measures against the coronavirus on Tuesday, “When you look at what we can do that we know works, it's the use of masks, physical distance and avoiding crowds” adding, “So, if you're saying it doesn't matter whether you put it on or take it off, you're giving a wrong, mixed signal. The signal should be: Wear a mask, period.” And, as we noted in yesterday’s brief, if Americans wear masks and continue to social distance, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Chris Murray believes that up to 45,000 American lives can be saved from COVID-19 by November 1. Murray said of mask wearing: “It's one that will save lives, but it will also help the economy enormously because it will avoid shutdowns which will inevitably come when things get quickly out of control in some states” (CNN).

The Washington Post analyzed county-level virus data through Monday, reporting that one-fifth of the country’s population lives in counties currently experiencing record seven-day highs of new cases. The data also shows the outbreaks shifting from the Northeast in April to the South and West in July. Many of the recent surges are being traced to social gatherings in states that began to open early, such as Texas and Florida (NYT). Texas reported over 10,000 new cases on Tuesday, reaching a new one-day high that only New York and Florida have surpassed (Statesman). California set a new record of COVID-19 hospitalizations: 6,000 patients as of Tuesday, and a record number of patients in intensive care, reports CNN. Arizona has the “highest per capita rate” of coronavirus cases in the U.S, which is 53 per 100,000 people. According to Neva Farmer, a nurse who works in a Phoenix-area hospital intensive care unit for COVID-19 patients, “We've seen a really large increase in patients in the 30-to-40 age group, which we had not seen that in the beginning” adding, "Most of the time in the beginning, it was a lot of the elderly population, but we're actually seeing that number decrease, and we're seeing younger individuals struggling with COVID now. So it's harder” (NPR). Tennessee is also surging this week, as it struggles to expand testing efforts across the state. Tennessee’s current daily infection rates are four times what they were in early June, likely due to the early reopening of businesses and limited social distancing in cities (NYT).

New Study Finds Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Spread of the Virus May Account for Nearly Half of Coronavirus Cases

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that “a primary driver of Covid-19 spread” is asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. CNN reports that “More than one-third of silent infections would need to be identified and isolated to suppress a future outbreak.” According to the PNAS article, based on existing research, “Specifically, if 17.9% of infections are asymptomatic, we found that the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections account for 48% and 3.4% of transmission, respectively. Considering a greater asymptomatic proportion of 30.8% reported in another empirical study, the presymptomatic phase and asymptomatic infections account for 47% and 6.6% of transmission, respectively.” CNN highlights: “To suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population, the study found it would be necessary to identify and isolate more than one-third of silent transmitters, in addition to all symptomatic cases.” The researchers note the importance of increasing testing for people without coronavirus symptoms and contact tracing can help identify the location of initial infection of individuals, and a delay in contact tracing increases the likelihood of further transmission of the virus. Bonus Read: “Scientists join forces to investigate airborne risk of coronavirus,” (Guardian).

New Global Analysis Outlines How Other Countries Have Reopened Their Schools as U.S. Wrestles With Next Steps

A new report by Science Magazine pulls examples of school openings across the world and found that “a combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home.” Yet, opening is more than just “adjustments” at a school. Other factors include how prevalent the coronavirus spread is in any given community, which is what impacts the likelihood of it rapidly spreading from a classroom to a home, and vice versa. According to Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare pediatric infectious disease specialist Otto Helve, “Outbreaks in schools are inevitable,” but, according to Science, “benefits of attending school seem to outweigh the risks.” According to University of Montreal epidemiologist Kate Zinszer, “There has to be a level of risk that we’re willing to take if a child’s in school.” As we’ve noted in several previous briefs, there have been many studies conducted on the coronavirus transmission rate in children, as well as their likelihood of developing severe symptoms.

For example, a study published in Nature Medicine found that “children and teenagers are only half as likely to get infected with the coronavirus as adults age 20 and older, and they usually don’t develop clinical symptoms of COVID-19,” reports the Washington Post. The researchers evaluated data from Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. Other studies have found trends between the likelihood of illness in children versus older adults, indicating children could rapidly spread the coronavirus in a community environment, such as a school, but other studies have revealed divergent information. Indeed, findings from a recent study in the United Kingdom indicated, “It is not possible to say with confidence that there is any difference in the proportion of individuals in different age groups testing positive for COVID-19” (Office of National Statistics). A study from Germany that we highlighted in a previous brief showed that while children have milder coronavirus symptoms once infected, their levels of SARS-CoV-2 are the same as adults. Another study published in Science studied coronavirus cases in China and found that “children were about a third as susceptible to coronavirus infection as adults were. But when schools were open…children had about three times as many contacts as adults, and three times as many opportunities to become infected…” The study’s authors found that keeping schools closed may “reduce the surge by 40 to 60 percent” (NYT).

According to Science, different outbreaks across the world showed that “elementary school pupils pose a smaller threat than older students,” but noted previous research that highlighted how children in close proximity to one another at school could “offset the lower odds they will spread the pathogen.” The worst outbreaks Science noted were in a Jerusalem middle school and high school in May and June that infected 153 students and 25 staff members, and another in New Zealand before the countrywide lockdown. A New Zealand high school had 96 infections among students, staff, teachers, and parents, but elementary schools did not have as many infections in the country. Daycare centers are another source of infection information regarding young children. Outbreaks “appeared rare” in locations where countries had daycare centers open to tend to children of essential workers. Reports last week out of Texas, however, showed that 1,335 residents contracted the coronavirus from child care facilities, and at least 894 were staff and 441 were children from 883 facilities. This number increased from 210 cases on June 15.

Schools have taken various precautions this past spring, from cutting classes in half (in the Netherlands) to implementing small groups allowed to play together during recess (in Denmark) to relocating to larger spaces, such as churches (in Belgium) and even graveyards (in Denmark). Schools in China, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam required masks for “almost all students and their teachers,” reports Science. Children in China were permitted to remove their masks during lunch. In Israel, children above 7-years-old were required to wear masks outside the classroom and all day for those in a fourth grade class and above. Mask wearing in schools was optional this spring in Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. South Africa aims to provide free face masks to any student in need of one, and Benin and Ghana require students to wear masks if they have them. Countries have also had varying protocols on what to do when an outbreak occurs. Most expedited testing (Science).

As we noted in a previous brief, pediatricians and psychologists are growing concerned about the effects of prolonged isolation on children. Research from JAMA Pediatrics based on data collected in the Hubei province in China found that coronavirus-related isolation caused nearly 23 percent of elementary students to have symptoms of depression and 19 percent to have symptoms of anxiety. Rebecca Rialon Berry, associate professor of child and adolescent psychiatry at New York University, stated, "There's a key connection between having good peer interactions and social-emotional well-being. In certain populations, we're seeing that our depression and anxiety are heightening with continued quarantining” (WSJ). The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will now revamp its school reopening guidelines. According to CDC director Robert Redfield on Wednesday, “We are prepared to work with each school, each jurisdiction to help them use the different strategies that we proposed that help do this safely so they come up with the optimal strategy for those schools,” and noted that the guidelines are not meant to be used as a “rationale to keep schools closed” (White House, NBC, NYT). President Trump tweeted on Wednesday that “In Germany, Denmark, Norway,  Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!” Although, schools reopening in Germany have faced challenges with understanding and following government guidelines, and are still largely operating with reduced capacity and staggered schedules (Tagesspiegel). CDC school guidelines are available here. And, New York City just announced its plan to stagger school attendance in the fall (NYT).

President Trump Tweets for FDA to “Act Now” on a New Hydroxychloroquine Study that Scientists Say is Flawed

On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to “Act now” on a new observational study that found hydroxychloroquine was linked to a reduction in deaths in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, and the president’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro discussed a request for emergency use authorization from the FDA in an interview with the White House press pool (BioCentury, STAT). As we noted Monday, scientists have criticized the study’s methodological flaws. Peter Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, told BioCentury the study was “unconvincing” because of “severe” baseline imbalances. An editorial published in the same journal as the study pointed out several confounding factors, including treatment with steroids like dexamethasone, which has now been shown—in a large, randomized, controlled study—to save lives in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patients who received hydroxychloroquine in the new study also received steroids twice as often as the patients who did not receive hydroxychloroquine. As we wrote at length in Monday’s brief, large, randomized, controlled studies are the gold standard for determining whether a treatment is effective. Observational studies look at a collection of individual cases that are affected by numerous variables; such studies try to compensate for the variables as much as possible and some studies do it better than others, but even the best cannot rule them out entirely. Observational studies cannot offer the evidence that a large, randomized, controlled trial can; instead, they are “often used to decide what ideas to test in randomized studies, to make sure that results from randomized studies translate to the real world, and to detect side effects” writes STAT. Five randomized, controlled studies covering over 5,600 patients reported that hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine did not demonstrate the looked-for benefit to patients, writes BioCentury. Some large, randomized, controlled studies of hydroxychloroquine are still ongoing, as we noted in a brief last Wednesday, including the United Kingdom’s COPCOV study of the drug as a preventative, and—if they are done well—will offer yet more data that can help govern clinical decisions. Scientists are watching for the response from the FDA, which some have perceived as yielding to political pressure: “The FDA cannot afford another misstep if it wants to maintain credibility with American people,” which will be “essential” to any future vaccine efforts, said Luciana Borio, who served as the FDA’s acting chief scientist from 2017 to 2019 (STAT).

Reopened Churches and Their Youth Programs Are Spreading Coronavirus Cases Across the U.S.

According to a New York Times report on Wednesday, in-person church services across the United States are now a conduit for coronavirus transmission. The Times notes that over 650 coronavirus cases through around 40 churches are tied to house of worship reopenings. Fifty people at one Texas church contracted the coronavirus after hugging each other during a service. A Florida teen died from COVID-19 after contracting the coronavirus at a church youth party she attended with 100 of her peers. And, more than 80 coronavirus cases were linked to a Christian youth camp in Missouri. According to a county commissioner in Oregon, George Murdock, “There’s a very fine line between protecting the health and safety of people, and protecting the right to worship” adding, “It’s one we’ve been walking very nervously all along.” In May, President Trump said that houses of worship were “essential services.” Even before then, we noted in several previous briefs that some churches continued to hold services during stay-at-home orders. For example, in March, a Louisiana pastor was charged with violating state emergency orders (a misdemeanor) after continuing to host church services. Pastor Tony Spell of Life Tabernacle Church near Baton Rouge held services with more than 1,000 total congregants after Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards had issued a stay-at-home order for residents, which included not attending religious services (WDSU 6). Also, an entire Oregon county’s reopening was set back to Phase 1 after more than 250 cases were traced back to a Pentecostal church that held a Memorial Day weekend gathering. The pastor of that church, Dan Satterwhite, said of the importance of permitting church services and his role as a pastor, “My personal belief is, I have faith in God” adding, “If God wants me to get Covid, I’ll get Covid. And if God doesn’t want me to get Covid, I won’t.” A number of churches have said that “state rules limiting service sizes infringe on their constitutional right to worship” (NYT). For example, in Nevada, Calvary Chapel Dayton Valley is contesting an order that church services must be capped at 50 people while casinos are still permitted to operate without the same cap. Emory University infectious disease expert Carlos del Rio says of church service transmission of the virus, “It’s an ideal setting for transmission” adding, “You have a lot of people in a closed space. And they’re speaking loudly, they’re singing. All those things are exactly what you don’t want.”

Analysis of Health Records of 17 Million People in England Confirms Risk Factors for COVID-19 Deaths

An analysis of the health records of 17 million people in England—about 40 percent of the population—helps confirm several known risk factors for COVID-19 and adds new depth of information and research to the subject. The elderly, men, minorities, and people with certain health conditions are more vulnerable to COVID-19, found the authors of the study that is the largest of its kind, they say, and was published in Nature Wednesday (NYT, Nature). “A lot of previous work has focused on patients that present at hospital,” said Dr. Ben Goldacre of the University of Oxford, one of study’s authors. “That’s useful and important, but we wanted to get a clear sense of the risks as an everyday person. Our starting pool is literally everybody” (NYT). The study tracked over 17 million adults over three months; over 10,900 of them died of COVID-19 or its complications, according to hospital records. The study found that patients older than 80 were hundreds of times more likely to die than patients under the age of 40, a disparity that was “jaw-dropping,” Goldacre said. Men were more likely to die than women, and people with medical conditions like obesity, diabetes, severe asthma, and compromised immunity tended to have worse outcomes. About 11 percent of the people in the study who identified as nonwhite had a higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than white patients, even after statistical adjustments for age, sex, and medical conditions like heart disease that are more prevalent in some groups. “This highlights a lot of what we already know about Covid-19,” said Uchechi Mitchell, a public health expert at the University of Illinois at Chicago who was not involved in the study. “But a lot of science is about repetition. The size of the study alone is a strength, and there is a need to continue documenting disparities.”

Bonus Reads: “Warning of serious brain disorders in people with mild coronavirus symptoms,” (Guardian); and “A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2,” (Science).

Around the World

Americas

Bolsonaro Rejects Aid to Indigenous People, Uses Homophobic Slur to Mock to Masks 

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rejected a plan on Wednesday that would obligate the federal government to provide drinking water, disinfectants, and a guarantee of hospital beds to indigenous communities amid the pandemic (Reuters). According to his office, the provisions in the law, which were approved by the Brazilian Congress, were “against the public interest” and “unconstitutional,” by creating expenses for the federal government without new sources of revenue to cover them. Brazil has an indigenous population of around 850,000, all of whom are more vulnerable to COVID-19 because they live in remote areas with little access to healthcare systems. Bolsonaro vetoed 16 parts of the law, but did allow provisions for adequate testing, ambulance services, and medical equipment. “The vetoes deny the minimum necessary for the survival of these communities,” Brazilian indigenous advocacy group Instituto Socioambiental (ISA) said in a statement. 

Also on Wednesday, Bolsonaro, one day after testing positive for coronavirus himself, reportedly used homophobic language to mock the use of face masks (Guardian). The Folha de São Paulo, a leading newspaper, claimed Brazil’s far-right leader had baited presidential staff who were using protective masks, claiming such equipment was “coisa de viado” (a homophobic slur that roughly translates as “for fairies”). The newspaper further reported that despite Brazil’s intensifying coronavirus crisis, which has caused nearly 67,000 deaths and 1.6 million infections, Bolsonaro insisted on greeting visitors on Wednesday with a handshake and shunned masks.

Europe

Serbian Leader Backtracks on Reimposing COVID-19 Curfew Due to Protests

Violence erupted in Serbia’s capital on Wednesday for the second day in a row as demonstrations against the President’s handling of the country’s coronavirus outbreak continued (AP). President Aleksandar Vucic conceded to the protesters’ demands; he had announced on Tuesday that a weekend curfew would be reintroduced two months after it was first lifted, but then backtracked and said no curfew would be enacted. Protesters and political opponents say that the autocrat contributed to the spike in deaths and new cases that the country has been experiencing after he lifted the previous lockdown measures and claim that he did so to cement his grip on the country after the June 21 parliamentary election. Vucic has denied those claims. Clashes between the police and the crowd resulted in 43 police officers and 17 protesters being injured on Wednesday, with 23 arrests made (Reuters). On Tuesday, Serbia recorded 13 more coronavirus deaths, its highest daily toll to date, as well as 299 newly recorded infections (Guardian).

Italy’s Health Minister Mulls Mandatory Hospitalizations for Positive Cases

Italy’s health minister proposed “sectioning,” or mandatory isolation and treatment, of people who refuse hospital treatment for COVID-19 and suspended flights from Bangladesh as the country deals with several new outbreaks. The potential move towards forced hospitalizations was proposed after a man who developed coronavirus symptoms after returning from a business trip to Serbia and resisted treatment in a hospital (Guardian). Five other people tested positive and 89 others were quarantined after the man attended a funeral and a birthday party. Health Minister Roberto Speranza reminded the public that those who break isolation rules currently face jail time and anyone who negligently spreads the virus risks a prison sentence of up to 12 years. The minister also said the flights from Bangladesh were suspended after “a significant” number of the over 200 passengers arriving in Rome on Monday from Dhaka tested positive. “After all the sacrifices made we cannot afford to import infections from abroad,” Speranza said. “Better to continue to follow the line of utmost caution.”

Catalonia Makes Masks Mandatory

The Spanish region of Catalonia is making face masks in public spaces compulsory at all times starting Thursday morning. The region is struggling with a renewed outbreak of coronavirus cases around Lleida, forcing 200,000 residents back into lockdown and pushing hospitals to capacity (Guardian). While Spain has ordered the use of masks since June indoors and outdoors if social distancing cannot be maintained, the Catalan government explained its decision to toughen the national directive, with spokeswoman Meritxell Budó saying: “We understand we should go a little further and enforce mask-wearing regardless of the physical distance between people. It is very important to protect ourselves and others.” 

Asia

Japan Faces Uptick in Cases, But the Government is Putting the Economy First

Tokyo recorded 224 new infections on Thursday, according to Japanese public broadcaster NHK, surpassing a record set in April (NYT). Yet, there is no appetite for another shutdown that would place additional stress on the economy; the virus will be addressed with measures “that would not further harm the economy,” according to Tokyo’s governor, Yuriko Koike (WaPo). At the end of June, the government abruptly dismantled a panel of medical experts that had been working on the national response to the virus, replacing it with a group of business experts. Tokyo’s municipal government also abandoned an alert system that would reimpose shutdowns if the virus began spreading again. “The situation is different today from early April when we issued the state of emergency,” said Yasutoshi Nishimura, the economy minister, who is in charge of the government’s coronavirus response. But scientists are worried because many of the new infections are in young people, and some are severe.   

India’s Transmission Rate is Increasing

On Thursday, India confirmed 25,000 new infections, and its transmission rate is rising for the first time since March, reports the Associated Press. Research by the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai shows that India’s virus reproduction rate increased in the first week of July to 1.19 after steadily falling from peak transmission of 1.83 in March. India’s infections have skyrocketed since the lockdown restrictions were eased and the government has also increased testing to more than 200,000 samples a day. 

Africa

South Africa May Run out of ICU Beds in Four Weeks

Health Minister Zweli Mkhize told parliament that South Africa is likely to run out of intensive-care unit beds within four weeks, even if the number of infections, which are expected to hit a high point in August, are lower than initially projected (Bloomberg). “Fewer people were infected in May and June than was previously projected even under the optimistic scenario,” Mkhize said. The number of infections has surged in the past few days, with a total of 224,665 confirmed cases reported so far, the highest number in Africa (Johns Hopkins).

A Silent Epidemic in Africa

Many health experts are concerned about the lack of reliable data in regards to the coronavirus in Africa. Some African nations have been reluctant to acknowledge epidemics or to expose their weak healthcare systems to scrutiny, while others simply cannot carry out significant testing because they have been consumed by poverty or ravaged by conflict (Reuters). But sharing information and data is critical to fighting the pandemic across the continent, and as things currently stand, it is impossible to fully gauge the severity of the spread of the virus. According to data collected by Reuters, Africa, with a population of 1.3 billion people, has over 493,000 confirmed cases and 11,600 deaths. By comparison, Latin America, with roughly half the population, has 2.9 million cases and 129,900 deaths. While the official numbers make it seem like Africa has largely escaped a major outbreak, the reality is certain to be much worse, as World Health Organization special envoy Samba Sow warned of a possible “silent epidemic” if testing is not prioritized. “We cannot help a country against its own will,” Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for the WHO in Africa, told Reuters. “In some countries, they are having meetings and not inviting us. We are supposed to be the main technical advisor.” 

U.S. Government & Politics

Harvard, MIT Sue Administration Over New Rules Blocking International Students from Staying in U.S. for Online Courses

Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) filed a lawsuit on Wednesday against the Trump administration, aiming to temporarily prohibit the government from enforcing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) rules to strip international students of their visas. As we noted in Monday’s brief, ICE announced that it would bar foreign students from remaining in the country if their university classes are taught entirely online, and requires international students to be on campus if their courses are taught in a hybrid model. Many universities spoke out against the new rules, as international students make up a significant portion of the student body and contribute a large portion of tuition fees. The lawsuit claims that the rules aim to “create as much chaos for universities and international students as possible” (NYT). 

Despite CDC Recommendations, Trump Threatens to Cut Funding to Schools Remaining Online

On Wednesday morning, President Trump said he disagreed with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) school guidelines, and threatened to cut federal funding to schools planning to stay closed and continue online learning in the fall. The CDC has consistently recommended that schools with in-person students should maintain social distancing, regularly disinfect surfaces, and close communal areas, but the agency has not specifically addressed the question of whether schools should offer in-person classes. The President is able to control federal funding, which accounts for about 10 percent of school budgets across the country, and can influence emergency funds appropriated by Congress throughout the pandemic. Already dealing with decades of budget cuts, schools are heavily reliant on emergency funds to properly adjust their teaching methods and classrooms for coronavirus (NYT, CNN).

U.S. Economy

Despite Federal Aid, United Airlines Expected to Furlough 36,000 Employees 

United Airlines announced Wednesday that it expects to furlough up to 36,000 employees if travel demand does not rebound by late September. The announcement threatens the jobs of nearly 40 percent of United’s workforce, and will see the majority of cuts in flight attendants and customer service agents (NYT). Employees are being offered early retirement options as an alternative to the furloughs. United and other airlines continue to struggle financially, despite a $25 billion stimulus package distributed to the industry in March. The funds required airlines to maintain employment numbers through the end of September. The airlines have called for additional funds. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants, said that “the United Airlines projected furlough numbers are a gut punch, but they are also the most honest assessment we’ve seen on the state of the industry” (WaPo).

Pandemic Weakening the Dollar, Triggering “Death’s Cross”

The pandemic is weakening the dollar, as coronavirus cases resurge across the United States, according to a Wednesday report in Reuters. The dollar is off 6 percent from recent highs, and bets against the dollar are at their highest point since 2018. Reuters writes, “A decline in the dollar earlier this week set off a technical formation known as a ‘Death Cross,’ which occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. Past occurrences of the Death Cross have been followed by a period of dollar weakness eight out of nine times since 1980 when the 200-day moving average has been declining, as it is now, analysts at the bank said.”

Walgreens Plans to Rebrand as Healthcare Provider

Walgreens will begin adding physicians’ offices to its stores in a move to rebrand as a healthcare company. Walgreens has partnered with VillageMD to open more than 500 clinics at its drugstores over the next five years. The $1 billion deal has been in the works for the past year, and is expected to increase profits as coronavirus drives down in-store sales and rivals CVS, Amazon, and Walmart diversify their offerings (WSJ). 

U.S. Society

NYC Schools Plan Return to Some In-Person Classes this Fall

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio plans to move forward with a hybrid learning model this fall, mixing two to three days of in-person classes with online instruction. The plan was announced shortly after President Trump threatened cuts to schools that continue with online learning (NYT). Face masks will be required for all people in school buildings, with the goal of decreasing class sizes to less than 12 students per teacher. While the mayor’s office hopes the new guidelines will decrease infection rates, President Trump continues to push schools to reopen completely (WSJ). Parents across the county have expressed concerns about the effectiveness and challenges of online learning, but the majority report a preference for continued remote learning (WaPo, WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Bryce Covert argues that the pandemic strengthens the case for getting rid of the tip adjusted minimum wage (New Republic).

Lisa Feldman Barrett provides some suggestions for how to make online courses more worthwhile (NYT).

David A. Graham argues against criticism of the Paycheck Protection Program (Atlantic).

Anna-Catherine Brigida profiles a family separated between El Salvador and the United States by Trump’s policies and coronavirus (Intercept).

Nature examines past pandemics and outlines why women are the most affected each time.

A comment in the Lancet criticizes the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization.

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk and David Sterman and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Narisara Murray, with Brianna Kablack and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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