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BOE Cuts Rates to Near Three-Year Low; Markets Await ECB Decision and Delayed Inflation Report

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

In a busy day for central bank action, the Bank of England cut its key policy rate by a quarter percentage point, moving in step with the Federal Reserve, while the central banks of Norway and Sweden both kept their key rates unchanged, as expected. Later today, the European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the delayed consumer-price index for November is due this morning and will be the first CPI report published since September.

 

Top News

Bank of England Cuts Rates to Near Three-Year Low

Photo: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg News

The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday, moving in step with the Federal Reserve rather than many peers in Europe, which are entering a period of steadier borrowing costs. The U.K.’s central bank reduced the rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November.

Delayed Inflation Report for November in Focus

The consumer-price index for November is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and will be the first CPI report published since September. Because of gaps in data collection as a result of the government shutdown, investors will focus on price changes over the past two months or on an annual basis. Inflation is below its pandemic highs, but remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Prices for many essentials have continued to rise. Economists project CPI likely accelerated a tad last month, to 3.1% on the year, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

Waller Argues for Further Cuts Ahead of Fed Chair Interview

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has spent much of the year arguing for cuts. He reiterated that case in a CNBC interview before a live audience, arguing that cushioning the cooling labor market should be the Fed's priority. He said there was room for as much as a percentage point of further rate cuts ahead.

What This Year Showed Us About the Future of the Federal Reserve

President Trump shattered the norms around the central bank’s independence when he pressured the chair to lower rates and attempted to oust a Fed official. As part of our video series on Trump’s second term, The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos explains what it means for global finance.

 

Central Banks Around the World

Sweden’s Riksbank Holds Rates, No Changes Expected for Some Time

Sweden’s central bank held its key policy rate at 1.75% Thursday and maintained that the next move will be a hike, but not for some time. The decision was in line with a Wall Street Journal poll.

Norway’s Central Bank Still Expects to Lower Borrowing Costs Slowly

Norway’s central bank held its key policy rate at 4% on Thursday and reconfirmed plans to slowly ease monetary policy in the coming years. The decision was in line with a Wall Street Journal poll.

Taiwan Central Bank Holds Rates Again as Economy Powers On

Taiwan’s central bank held interest rates steady again at its final meeting of 2025, remaining one of the few to not have eased monetary policy this year.

 

Economy

Trump Defends Handling of Economy, Announces Military Dividend

President Trump defended his handling of the economy during a rare prime-time speech and announced a $1,776 “warrior dividend” check for active-duty servicemembers that he said would be paid for with tariff revenue.

All That Cheap Chinese Stuff Is Now Europe’s Problem

President Trump’s crackdown on Chinese imports in the U.S. has redirected a tsunami of cheap stuff into Europe. Some of it is pooled in Xue Er’s backyard.

  • EU’s Von Der Leyen Says Green Light for Mercosur Deal of Enormous Importance

New Zealand’s Economy Rebounds Strongly in Third Quarter

New Zealand’s economy grew by more than expected in the third quarter, confirming that a solid recovery is now underway driven by aggressive interest rate cuts over the last year and a half.

 

Financial Regulation

Tricolor Executives Charged Over Subprime Auto Lender’s Collapse

Photo: Ash Ponders/Bloomberg

Top executives of subprime auto lender Tricolor were charged in a federal indictment alleging that they deceived the company’s bank lenders and double-pledged collateral ahead of its collapse into bankruptcy.

The indictment unsealed in the Southern District of New York alleged double-pledging of vehicle loans, data manipulation and misrepresentations to major banks, which federal prosecutors said caused hundreds of millions of dollars of losses.

 

Forward Guidance

Thursday (all times ET)

7 a.m.: UK interest rate decision
8:15 a.m.: ECB interest rate announcement
8:30 a.m.: CPI
8:30 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Friday

10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index
10 a.m.: Existing Home Sales
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

Research

Private Credit Presents Attractive Investment Opportunity, Aberdeen Says

Private credit as an asset class looks appealing, Aberdeen Investments says in a note. "Private credit spans a wide range of markets and segments, but is predominately characterized by investment-grade non-bank lending through privately negotiated loans." Default rates in the sector are often low and loan recovery rates are high, Aberdeen Investments says. "Aberdeen cites recent high-profile defaults among private credit borrowers as isolated cases rather than evidence of systemic underwriting deterioration." — Miriam Mukuru

 

Basis Points

  • Swiss watch exports continued to decline last month, leaving the key industry on track to book a fall over a year marked by a sharp impact from President Trump’s trade tariffs.
  • Venezuela has long used the same playbook as Russia and Iran to get around crippling American sanctions on its oil industry, tapping a shadowy fleet of aging vessels to carry crude to customers. President Trump’s partial oil blockade threatens to devastate this black market.
  • Bolivia is sitting on a metal the world can’t get enough of. Now, after two decades of Socialist rule, its new pro-U.S. government is betting that lithium—and Washington—can help pull the country out of an economic tailspin.
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings upgraded Paraguay’s sovereign credit rating to BBB-/A-3, citing the country’s pro-business policies and track record of macroeconomic stability.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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