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The Fog of Trade War Is Causing Confusion About Price Increases

By Jennifer Williams

Good morning, CFOs. Americans are trying to size up whether tariffs really are behind certain price hikes; Charts showing that Wall Street’s gloom over deals is overblown; plus, President Trump pauses immigration arrests at farms, hotels and restaurants.

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ILLUSTRATION: EMIL LENDOF/WSJ, ISTOCK

Months into the rollout of President Trump’s slew of tariffs, consumers are making everyday spending decisions in a haze of confusion about whether higher prices are the result of tariffs, general inflation or companies simply padding their profit margins.

Call it the fog of trade war.

Adding to the murky conditions: Tariff policies themselves are constantly in flux. Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. had arrived at a trade deal with China that the administration said would bring tariffs on that nation, which were once as high as 145%, to 55% (including the 30% imposed during his second term).

A federal court has allowed Trump’s other sweeping tariffs to remain in place for now. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data suggest the overall effect of tariffs on prices so far is muted.

All of this has left consumers wondering about the source of price increases. In some cases, they are trying to find out.

 
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The Week Ahead

Monday

Earnings: Lennar

Tuesday

Earnings: Jabil

The Census Bureau reports retail and food services sales for May.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for June.

Wednesday

The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for May.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision.

Thursday

Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day.

Friday

Earnings: CarMax, Darden Restaurants and Kroger

 

What Else Matters to CFOs

Wall Street bankers who were bemoaning a slowdown in deals are finding themselves now looking at a reasonably solid year. Maybe.

The mood in M&A circles has been lukewarm under President Trump despite a number of megadeals this year, including Google’s $32 billion agreement to purchase the cybersecurity startup Wiz and Charter Communications’s $22 billion deal for Cox Communications. The damped enthusiasm is partly a result of dashed hopes: Many bankers had believed the Trump administration would usher in a surge in mergers and acquisitions after a relative lull in the past few years.

The reality has been mixed. The number of deals in 2025 so far with U.S.-based target companies is down sharply from the same period a year earlier. But the total value of those deals is up around 3.8% at $750 billion, according to the London Stock Exchange Group.

Check out charts here that show why Wall Street’s gloom over deals is overblown.

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  • The Trump administration said it has directed immigration officers to pause arrests at farms, restaurants and hotels, stressing that sweeps should focus on people in the U.S. illegally who have criminal backgrounds.
  • Stablecoins’ going mainstream wouldn’t take all of banks’ deposits away. Just some of the better ones.

📰 Other headlines

  • How Elon Musk Is Reinventing Tesla’s Strategy
  • America’s Last Mall King Is Still in Charge, Even After a Deadly Diagnosis
  • It’s a Scary World, but Investing Abroad Has New Attractions
  • Leonard Lauder, Who Turned His Mother’s Beauty Business Into a Global Empire, Dies at 92
  • Gucci Owner Kering Picks Renault Chief as New CEO
  • Red vs. Blue Is Dividing Stock Portfolios Like Never Before
 ‏‏‎ ‎
$57 Million

The amount President Trump earned from his stake in a family-backed cryptocurrency firm last year, according to a new financial disclosure form, showing the early returns on a burgeoning digital-asset empire.

 

CFO Moves

The Securities and Exchange Commission, the Washington, D.C.-based securities regulator, said it named Kurt Hohl chief accountant, effective July 7. Acting Chief Accountant Ryan Wolfe will return to his role as chief accountant in the enforcement division, the SEC said. Hohl most recently founded business-consulting firm Corallium Advisors. Before that, he spent 26 years as a partner at Ernst & Young, including as global deputy vice-chair of its global assurance professional practice. Hohl worked at the SEC from 1989 to 1997, rising to associate chief accountant in the corporate-finance division.

—Mark Maurer contributed to today’s Ledger.

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About Us

The Wall Street Journal's CFO Journal offers corporate leaders and professionals CFO analysis, advice and commentary to make informed decisions. We cover topics including corporate tax, accounting, regulation, capital markets, management and strategy.

Follow us on X @WSJCFO. The WSJ CFO Journal Team comprises reporters Kristin Broughton, Mark Maurer and Jennifer Williams, and Bureau Chief Walden Siew.

You can reach us by replying to any newsletter, or email Walden at walden.siew@wsj.com.

 
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